Sunday, April 12, 2015

Hillary Clinton And The Global Gender Basics

When Hillary Clinton's email "scandal" took over the proverbial airwaves, I chuckled. I had to restrain myself from sending out a blog post missive, Saturday Night Live style, making fun of the fact that no, I don't think Hillary Clinton has sent out 30,000 emails in her lifetime ("Deleter In Chief," one tabloid headline screamed), the number of emails she is "accused" of deleting. I truly don't think Hillary Clinton has written and sent out 30,000 emails in her lifetime. But then when did facts get in the way of fiction in the Clinton "scandals!" Why will they start now?

When the dude Clinton launched his foundation, I feared even his disease trips to Africa might be spun into sex scandals. I am glad it did not happen, at least not to my knowledge. Whereas there are still big chunks of the country  that think the Clintons murdered Vince Foster, and "Whitewatergate" (a small, failed land deal in a part of Arkansas, the remotest American state, that was remote even by Arkansas standards) was the Clinton Enron. Some black folks called Bill Clinton the first black president because the criminal justice system failed him so monumentally. How can Ken Starr do so much damage and get away with it! He is still walking around free!

Pretty much every detail of Hillary Clinton's life is out there. And I still do not underestimate the vast right wing conspiracy's (yes, such a thing exists) ability to stay fascinated by The Hillary. Her candidacy and presidency for that reason will stay interesting to even those who routinely err on the side of thinking she is better than she is.

It truly is about gender. And gender is all around you. Your mother, your grandmother, and her mother, your sister, cousin, daughter, friends, colleagues. There are a lot of women, look around, to paraphrase Larry Summers. The thing about sex is that is how you were born, Hillary once chided a young something reporter.

For me personally, Hillary 2016 only gets interesting after she puts a second woman on the ticket. A minority woman would be perfect. If you think gender is awkward, try race plus gender. I do not expect any of her policy positions to surprise me. I don't expect to "stay glued to the screen." I don't expect to follow closely. I read tech news mostly.

But you can not be the first woman to occupy the most powerful office on the planet, political and otherwise, and pretend you only owe it to those who voted for you. As soon as an American president is sworn in, she is no longer just president of those who voted for her, but also of those who might have voted against her. In this case, Hillary is going to belong to women across the world in ways the German Chancellor simply can not. Her having been Secretary of State and traveled the world so very extensively helps me relate to her. I am a Third World Guy. That is who I am for this lifetime.

And just like Barack Obama to me was about 500 years of world history, Hillary to me is about three and a half billion women. She needs a woman running mate because a woman running for and being president should no longer be news, not after her. It should feel normal. We should enter an era where half the time the best candidate on merits just so happens to be some woman.

FDR won a fourth time. Hillary doing two terms will be Barack Obama pulling a FDR. They are comrades.

On issues for me Hillary 2016 is all about Third World women. Nixon went to China, Hillary went to Burma. I was so impressed by what she was able to do for Burma. Especially because I was not even following the developments until the Big Splash showed up in the news. And I grew up practically next door to Burma.

The basics are pretty simple. Slavery should long have been extinct. But it still exists. Sex slavery should be so past tense, but it exists in huge numbers. There are more women sex slaves today than there were black slaves in Abraham Lincoln's time. Poverty is hard knocks, and micofinance is known to work, and Hillary bought into it a long time ago. Gender violence is cut and dry. It is no grey zone. Policing globally has to reorganize itself to bring an end to gender violence. Violence is violence, inside the home, outside the home, does not matter. Women face it both inside and outside.

And if a capable woman who by now knows the government machineries like the back of her hand (I think she will prove why she got better grades than Bill Clinton at Yale) can not put a firm stamp on these issues, then the world will be waiting a long, long time. I think that wait unnecessary.



Friday, April 03, 2015

बिहार, उत्तर प्रदेश और मोदी/BJP



AAP के दिल्ली sweep करने के बाद मेरे को लगा शायद AAP बीजेपी को २०१७ में UP में challenge कर सके। लेकिन AAP के भितर जो infighting का दौर चला है उससे मेरे को लगने लगा है २०१७ में BJP २०१४ के तरह फिर से UP sweep करेगी। SP का तो बुरा हाल है। जनता परिवार एक हो रही है, ये लोकतंत्र के लिए अच्छी बात है। क्योंकि वो जब फुटे थे तो गलत सतही कारन से फुटे थे। अब एक हो रहे हैं। क्यों कि रास्ता नहीं दिख रहा है। मोदी ने २०१४ में भारत के राजनीति में बहुतो को endangered species बना दिया।

जनता परिवार नीतिश के नेतृत्वमें एक होते तो लगता चलो ये भी development man हैं। लेकिन मुलायम थके हुवे लोग हैं। BJP में आडवाणी, जनता परिवार में मुलायम -- दोनो थके हुवे लोग हैं। Private sector में दोनों को retirement मिल गइ होती। नीतिश को बुरा लगा कि आडवाणी का जगह मोदी ने क्यों ले लिया? इसीलिये वो अपना जगह मुलायम को दे रहे हैं। नीतिश के कारण मुलायम को उत्तर प्रदेश में जित न भी मिल सकती है, लेकिन ये गारंटी है कि मुलायम से नीतीशको बिहार में घाटा है नाफा कोइ नहीं। मुलायम क्लियर कट Non Development Man रहे हैं। उत्तर प्रदेश को मुलायम ने गरीब नहीं बनाया, उत्तर प्रदेश पहले से गरीब राज्य था। लेकिन उस गरीब उत्तर प्रदेश को मुलायम ने ऊँचा भी तो नहीं पहुँचाया। ज्यों का त्यों छोड़ दिया। एक मंडल wave था देश में --- तब मुलायम आगे आए। लेकिन देश में अब एक development wave है। मोदी खुद जन्मसे तेली, बनिया कास्ट में पैदा हुवा आदमी। यदि Mandal का आज कोइ relevance है तो मोदी खुद उसके चेहरा हैं।



तो अभी मेरे को लग रहा है BJP २०१७ में UP sweep करेगी। (१) UP भारतका heartland state है। (२) अब तो UP मोदी का home state हुवा। वाराणसी से MP हैं वो। (३) राज्य सभा में अपना ताकत बढ़ाने के लिए BJP के लिए UP में राज्य सरकार बनाना बहुत जरुरी है।

भारत को Third World Country बनाने में UP और बिहार का बहुत बड़ा हाथ है। जनसंख्या दोनों का इतना ज्यादा है। गरीबी इतनी ज्यादी है। नहीं तो गुजरात को देखो तो वो युरोप के  दो चार देशको छोड़ कर बाँकी सबसे आगे है। तो मोदी के सपने के लिए UP, बिहार और Northeast का बहुत बड़ा strategic महत्व है।

UP तो sweep है। Bihar is less clear cut. But there also there are no guarantees Nitish will win. Laloo and Nitish coming together does not necessarily mean they will win. Yahoo and Microsoft coming together on search did not make a dent in Google's market share. The opposite happened. Google's share increased. They might win. But again, they might not.



I think Modi is using the Land Acquisition Bill as a wedge issue to pry open the state governments in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh from his opposition's hands. He will sell the Bill hard on the campaign trail. I mean, he won me!

Bihar later in the year is not like Delhi. In Bihar it is a coin toss right now. It could go either way. And if the tilt is far enough, it might even lead to a sweep.

I am beginning to think perhaps Nitish walking away from the BJP two years back was a bad move. For the first major politician in India to have called Modi a future Prime Minister, he perhaps miscalculated. He might be months away from political retirement. That will be a Shakespearean tragedy. He has been the best Bihari Chief Minister of my lifetime.