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Showing posts with label sovereignty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sovereignty. Show all posts

Friday, October 03, 2025

Captain Ibrahim Traoré and the New Face of African Sovereignty

 



Captain Ibrahim Traoré and the New Face of African Sovereignty

From Coup to Consciousness

When Captain Ibrahim Traoré seized power in Burkina Faso on September 30, 2022, he was only 34 years old — the world’s youngest head of state. Within months, he became a continental symbol of resistance against neocolonialism. His fiery speeches, often delivered in traditional attire rather than Western suits, resonated with a generation disillusioned by decades of dependency on Western powers and international lenders.

Traoré’s rise marks more than another military takeover in Africa’s Sahel region. It reflects a deeper rebellion: a demand for dignity, self-sufficiency, and political agency. His leadership has blended revolutionary rhetoric with bold policy moves — and an increasingly authoritarian edge.


Sovereignty in Action: Economic Nationalism and Resource Control

One of Traoré’s defining policies has been economic independence through resource sovereignty. Burkina Faso, Africa’s fourth-largest gold producer, saw foreign mining companies control the bulk of its output for decades.

Since 2022, Traoré’s government has nationalized five gold mines, including major sites like Boungou and Wahgnion previously operated by UK-based Endeavour Mining, reportedly paying $80 million in compensation. A new mining code now gives the state a 15% free stake in all mining projects and the right to purchase an additional 30%. His ultimate goal: national majority control.

He banned unprocessed gold exports and established a national refinery capable of processing over 200 tonnes annually — symbolizing his pledge that “Burkina Faso will mine its own gold.”

These policies have sharply increased revenues — government data claims $18 billion in gold income since 2022, though independent verification is limited. Still, the pivot has invigorated a sense of ownership, even as Western firms withdraw and foreign investment plummets.


Rewiring the Economy: From Austerity to Self-Reliance

Traoré’s economic model combines austerity at the top with populism at the bottom. His government cut ministerial salaries by 30% while raising civil servants’ pay by 50%, attempting to redistribute state wealth.

Rejecting loans from the IMF and World Bank, he instead promotes domestic production — investing in tomato processing plants, cotton mills, fertilizer factories, and small-scale gold refineries. The aim is to keep value addition within national borders.

Other populist measures — banning imported legal attire in courts in favor of traditional clothing, or converting mosque-building offers into school construction — are symbolic attempts to reclaim cultural and spiritual independence.

Despite sanctions and limited access to credit markets, GDP rose from $18.8 billion in 2022 to about $24 billion in 2025, driven by nationalized mining and agriculture. Yet poverty remains staggering at 63.8%, and per capita income growth still lags behind population growth.


Security First: Fighting Insurgency Before Elections

Burkina Faso remains one of the world’s most insecure nations. Since 2015, jihadist groups like JNIM (linked to al-Qaeda) and ISGS (linked to ISIS) have displaced over 2 million people and killed thousands.

When Traoré seized power, he justified the coup as necessary to “save the nation.” He maintains that restoring security must precede elections, asserting that “democracy cannot exist in chaos.”

While some regions have seen improved defense coordination, violence actually worsened in 2024 — fatalities rising 47% year-over-year, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). Critics argue that his government’s military purges, forced conscriptions, and harsh anti-terror laws are worsening civilian suffering.

Yet, given the country’s eight coups since independence in 1960, many Burkinabé accept this tradeoff. For them, Traoré’s strong hand — however repressive — feels like the only viable path to stability.


Under Siege: Personal Threats and Political Survival

Traoré’s personal security situation underscores the volatility of his rule. Reports claim he has survived over 18 assassination attempts since 2022. In April 2025, a bodyguard was allegedly offered $5 million by foreign operatives to assassinate him — a claim used to justify sweeping purges within the security forces.

While some analysts suggest these threats may be inflated for propaganda, they illustrate his precarious position — caught between jihadist militias, internal rivals, and external actors resentful of his anti-Western turn.

His government has responded with loyalty tests, surveillance expansion, and high-profile trials. These measures have entrenched his control, but at the cost of personal freedoms.


Partnership with Russia: A New Alignment

Traoré’s pivot from Paris to Moscow has redefined Burkina Faso’s foreign policy. He expelled French troops in early 2023, ending decades of military presence, and later joined Mali and Niger in forming the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) — a collective defense pact oriented away from ECOWAS and toward Russia.

While denying Wagner Group deployment, Traoré welcomed its successor entity, Africa Corps, in 2024 to provide training and intelligence support. Bilateral trade with Russia soared to $753 million in 2024, and agreements were signed for wheat imports, university scholarships, and the establishment of a nuclear research center.

In May 2025, Traoré’s visit to Moscow cemented his role as a vanguard of the new “multipolar Africa.” Critics warn, however, that the anti-colonial rhetoric masks a pivot from French dependency to Russian tutelage — trading one form of control for another.


The U.S. and the West: Deliberate Distancing

In 2025, Traoré reportedly declined multiple U.S. invitations — including one to Donald Trump’s inauguration — citing “local commitments.” His aides claim Washington has “no moral authority” to lecture Africa on governance.

Although some claims about U.S. overtures remain unverified, his anti-Western stance has consolidated his pan-African image. He accuses Western nations of sponsoring insurgencies and economic subjugation — rhetoric that resonates strongly with African youth disillusioned by decades of unfulfilled aid promises.

However, the pivot has real costs: sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and the freezing of certain international aid channels. Western officials privately fear that Traoré’s approach, if emulated, could create a “Sahelian bloc” resistant to Western engagement.


Domestic Reforms and Social Programs

Traoré’s domestic achievements, though uneven, are tangible. His administration has:

  • Built 55 new rural medical centers and rolled out free primary healthcare nationwide.

  • Expanded university enrollment by 70% through new subsidies.

  • Constructed 2,000 km of new roads, launched solar farms covering 30% of national energy, and initiated a high-speed rail link between Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso.

  • Increased rice production to over 400,000 tonnes, thanks to mechanization and local fertilizer plants.

Yet, repression shadows these gains — journalists have been jailed, independent outlets shuttered, and citizens conscripted under threat. International watchdogs rate Burkina Faso among Africa’s worst for press freedom in 2025.


Pan-African Symbolism and the Traoré Effect

Across Africa, Ibrahim Traoré’s image looms large — especially among young people in Mali, Niger, Guinea, and Chad. His fiery denunciations of France and the IMF echo through TikTok and WhatsApp videos subtitled in Swahili and Hausa.

His popularity helped accelerate the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a regional bloc aiming for joint defense and economic integration free from Western influence. For millions, Traoré symbolizes a generation unafraid to break from colonial legacies and assert a new African order.

But for others, he embodies the old paradox: military strongmen cloaked in revolutionary language, consolidating power in the name of freedom.


Between Vision and Violence

Is Ibrahim Traoré a visionary reformer or an opportunistic autocrat? The answer lies somewhere in between.

He has undeniably rekindled a spirit of African self-determination, challenged exploitative foreign contracts, and dared to imagine a sovereign path. Yet his methods — marked by censorship, militarization, and indefinite rule — risk reproducing the very authoritarianism that postcolonial Africa has long struggled to escape.

In a region where coups have become contagious, his legacy may hinge on whether he can transition from revolutionary to institution-builder — from the symbol of defiance to the architect of renewal.


Conclusion: The Burden of a New Africa

Captain Ibrahim Traoré’s Burkina Faso stands at a crossroads between emancipation and isolation. His experiment — part nationalism, part militarism, part utopian revival — reflects the growing rejection of dependency across the Global South.

If he succeeds in stabilizing his nation while preserving its sovereignty, he could redefine African leadership for a century. If he fails, Burkina Faso risks becoming another cautionary tale — where idealism burns bright, only to be extinguished by the weight of its contradictions.



कैप्टन इब्राहीम ट्राओरे: अफ्रीकी संप्रभुता का नया चेहरा

तख़्तापलट से चेतना तक

जब कैप्टन इब्राहीम ट्राओरे ने 30 सितंबर 2022 को बुर्किना फासो में सत्ता संभाली, तब वे मात्र 34 वर्ष के थे — दुनिया के सबसे युवा राष्ट्राध्यक्ष। कुछ ही महीनों में वे नव-औपनिवेशिक व्यवस्था के विरुद्ध विद्रोह के प्रतीक बन गए। उनके जोशीले भाषण, अक्सर पश्चिमी सूट की जगह पारंपरिक परिधान में दिए गए, उस पीढ़ी से गहराई से जुड़ते हैं जो पश्चिमी प्रभुत्व और अंतरराष्ट्रीय ऋण संस्थाओं की निर्भरता से थक चुकी है।

ट्राओरे का उदय अफ्रीका के साहेल क्षेत्र में एक और सैन्य तख़्तापलट मात्र नहीं है। यह एक गहरा आंदोलन है — गरिमा, आत्मनिर्भरता और राजनीतिक स्वाधीनता की मांग का। उनका नेतृत्व क्रांतिकारी विचारों और कठोर नीति कदमों का मिश्रण है — जिसमें आदर्शवाद और अधिनायकवाद दोनों झलकते हैं।


संप्रभुता की राह: आर्थिक राष्ट्रवाद और संसाधनों पर नियंत्रण

ट्राओरे की प्रमुख नीतियों में से एक है संसाधनों पर नियंत्रण के माध्यम से आर्थिक स्वतंत्रता। अफ्रीका का चौथा सबसे बड़ा सोना उत्पादक देश, बुर्किना फासो, दशकों से विदेशी कंपनियों के प्रभुत्व में था।

2022 के बाद से, ट्राओरे सरकार ने पाँच सोना खदानों का राष्ट्रीयकरण किया है, जिनमें ब्रिटिश कंपनी एंडेवर माइनिंग की बुंगू और वाहग्निओन खदानें भी शामिल हैं — लगभग 80 मिलियन डॉलर के मुआवज़े के साथ। एक नए खनन क़ानून के तहत अब राज्य को हर परियोजना में 15% नि:शुल्क हिस्सेदारी और अतिरिक्त 30% तक ख़रीदने का अधिकार मिला है। लक्ष्य स्पष्ट है: राष्ट्रीय बहुमत नियंत्रण।

उन्होंने कच्चे सोने के निर्यात पर प्रतिबंध लगाया और एक राष्ट्रीय रिफाइनरी स्थापित की जो प्रति वर्ष 200 टन से अधिक सोना संसाधित कर सकती है। उनका नारा है — “बुर्किना फासो अपना सोना स्वयं निकालेगा।”

इन नीतियों से राजस्व में भारी वृद्धि हुई — सरकारी आँकड़े बताते हैं कि 2022 के बाद से 18 बिलियन डॉलर से अधिक सोना आय के रूप में मिला है, हालांकि स्वतंत्र पुष्टि कठिन है। फिर भी, इसने देश में स्वामित्व और आत्मसम्मान की भावना जगाई है, भले ही विदेशी निवेश घट गया हो।


आर्थिक पुनर्निर्माण: मितव्ययिता से आत्मनिर्भरता तक

ट्राओरे का आर्थिक मॉडल ऊपर से मितव्ययिता और नीचे से जनपक्षीयता का है। उनकी सरकार ने मंत्रियों के वेतन में 30% कटौती की और नागरिक सेवकों के वेतन में 50% की वृद्धि की — राज्य की संपत्ति को पुनर्वितरित करने का प्रयास करते हुए।

आईएमएफ और विश्व बैंक के ऋणों को ठुकराते हुए, उन्होंने घरेलू उत्पादन को बढ़ावा दिया — टमाटर प्रसंस्करण संयंत्र, कपास मिलें, उर्वरक कारखाने और छोटे सोना रिफाइनरी प्रोजेक्ट्स में निवेश किया। उद्देश्य: मूल्य संवर्धन को देश के भीतर रखना।

प्रतीकात्मक निर्णय भी कम नहीं थे — अदालतों में ब्रिटिश शैली की कानूनी पोशाक पर प्रतिबंध और विदेशी मस्जिद निर्माण प्रस्तावों के स्थान पर स्कूल निर्माण को प्राथमिकता देना — सांस्कृतिक और आध्यात्मिक स्वावलंबन के प्रतीक बन गए।

प्रतिबंधों और सीमित ऋण पहुंच के बावजूद, बुर्किना फासो का जीडीपी 2022 में 18.8 बिलियन डॉलर से बढ़कर 2025 में लगभग 24 बिलियन डॉलर हो गया। परंतु गरीबी अब भी 63.8% पर बनी हुई है, और जनसंख्या वृद्धि दर के कारण प्रति व्यक्ति आय में वृद्धि धीमी है।


पहले सुरक्षा, फिर चुनाव: विद्रोह से जूझता राष्ट्र

बुर्किना फासो दुनिया के सबसे असुरक्षित देशों में से एक है। 2015 से, अल-कायदा से जुड़ा जेएनआईएम (JNIM) और आईएसआईएस से जुड़ा आईएसजीएस (ISGS) जैसे आतंकी समूहों ने 20 लाख से अधिक लोगों को विस्थापित किया है और हजारों को मार डाला है।

ट्राओरे ने सत्ता संभालते समय कहा था कि तख़्तापलट “राष्ट्र को बचाने” के लिए आवश्यक था। उनका कहना है कि जब तक देश सुरक्षित नहीं होता, तब तक चुनाव “लोकतंत्र नहीं, अराजकता लाएँगे।”

कुछ क्षेत्रों में सुरक्षा सहयोग बढ़ा है, लेकिन 2024 में हिंसा 47% बढ़ गई, एसीएलईडी (ACLED) के आँकड़ों के अनुसार। आलोचकों का कहना है कि सेना में शुद्धिकरण, जबरन भर्ती और कठोर कानूनों ने नागरिकों की स्थिति और बिगाड़ी है।

फिर भी, 1960 से अब तक हुए आठ तख़्तापलटों के इतिहास को देखते हुए, कई नागरिक इसे आवश्यक समझते हैं। उनके लिए ट्राओरे की कठोरता, repression के बावजूद, सुरक्षा का पर्याय बन गई है।


जीवित रहने की जंग: हत्या की साजिशें और सत्तासंघर्ष

ट्राओरे का शासन लगातार खतरे में है। रिपोर्टों के अनुसार, 2022 से अब तक उन पर 18 से अधिक हत्या के प्रयास हो चुके हैं। अप्रैल 2025 में, एक अंगरक्षक को कथित रूप से विदेशी एजेंटों द्वारा 5 मिलियन डॉलर की पेशकश की गई थी — जिसके बाद कई अधिकारियों को बर्खास्त किया गया।

हालाँकि कुछ विश्लेषक इन साजिशों को प्रचार बताते हैं, वे इस तथ्य को उजागर करते हैं कि ट्राओरे न केवल जिहादी विद्रोहियों बल्कि बाहरी शक्तियों और घरेलू विरोधियों के निशाने पर हैं।

उनकी सरकार ने वफादारी परीक्षण, निगरानी और सख्त सुरक्षा उपायों को लागू किया है — जिससे सत्ता मजबूत हुई, लेकिन नागरिक स्वतंत्रता सिकुड़ गई।


रूस के साथ नई साझेदारी

ट्राओरे ने बुर्किना फासो की विदेश नीति को पूरी तरह पलट दिया। उन्होंने 2023 में फ्रांसीसी सैनिकों को देश से बाहर निकाला, जिससे दशकों पुरा सैन्य प्रभाव समाप्त हुआ, और माली व नाइजर के साथ मिलकर एलायंस ऑफ़ साहेल स्टेट्स (AES) का गठन किया — जो पश्चिमी प्रभाव से हटकर रूस के साथ संरेखित हो रहा है।

हालाँकि उन्होंने वैगनर समूह की तैनाती से इनकार किया, लेकिन 2024 से उसके उत्तराधिकारी “अफ्रीका कॉर्प्स” को प्रशिक्षण व खुफिया सहयोग के लिए आमंत्रित किया। रूस के साथ व्यापार 2024 में 753 मिलियन डॉलर तक पहुँच गया, और गेहूँ आपूर्ति, छात्रवृत्तियाँ व एक परमाणु अनुसंधान केंद्र की योजना पर समझौते हुए।

मई 2025 में मास्को की उनकी यात्रा ने उनके “बहुध्रुवीय अफ्रीका” के विज़न को सुदृढ़ किया। आलोचकों का कहना है कि यह “फ्रांसीसी निर्भरता की जगह रूसी प्रभाव” मात्र है — जबकि समर्थक इसे “व्यावहारिक और आवश्यक” मानते हैं।


अमेरिका और पश्चिम से दूरी

2025 में ट्राओरे ने डोनाल्ड ट्रंप के उद्घाटन समारोह सहित कई अमेरिकी निमंत्रण ठुकरा दिए, यह कहते हुए कि “हमारे अपने देश की ज़रूरतें सर्वोपरि हैं।” उनके सलाहकारों ने अमेरिका पर “नव-औपनिवेशिक रवैये” और “अफ्रीकी संप्रभुता में हस्तक्षेप” का आरोप लगाया।

हालाँकि कुछ आमंत्रणों की पुष्टि नहीं हुई, परंतु उनका पश्चिम-विरोधी रुख उनके पैन-अफ्रीकी छवि का हिस्सा बन गया है। इसके परिणामस्वरूप पश्चिमी सहायता में कटौती, प्रतिबंध और कूटनीतिक अलगाव भी बढ़ा है।

अमेरिकी अधिकारियों को भय है कि ट्राओरे का यह मॉडल पूरे साहेल क्षेत्र को “पश्चिम-विरोधी गुट” में बदल सकता है।


घरेलू नीतियाँ और विकास कार्य

ट्राओरे की सरकार ने कई ठोस कार्य किए हैं —

  • 55 ग्रामीण स्वास्थ्य केंद्रों का निर्माण और मुफ़्त प्राथमिक स्वास्थ्य सेवा की शुरुआत।

  • विश्वविद्यालय नामांकन में 70% वृद्धि

  • 2,000 किलोमीटर नई सड़कें, 30% ऊर्जा के लिए सौर परियोजनाएँ, और तेज़ गति रेल परियोजना

  • धान उत्पादन 4 लाख टन से अधिक — स्थानीय उर्वरक संयंत्रों और मशीनरी वितरण से संभव हुआ।

फिर भी, पत्रकारों की गिरफ़्तारी, मीडिया प्रतिबंध और जबरन भर्ती जैसे कदमों ने उनके शासन पर दमन का साया डाला है।


पैन-अफ्रीकी प्रभाव: “ट्राओरे प्रभाव”

अफ्रीका भर में ट्राओरे का नाम गूंज रहा है — विशेषकर युवा वर्ग में। माली, नाइजर, गिनी और चाड के युवा उनके भाषणों के वीडियो टिकटॉक और व्हाट्सएप पर साझा करते हैं।

उनकी लोकप्रियता ने एलायंस ऑफ़ साहेल स्टेट्स (AES) को गति दी — जो फ्रांसीसी प्रभुत्व से मुक्त रक्षा और आर्थिक सहयोग की दिशा में बढ़ रहा है।

कई लोगों के लिए, ट्राओरे “स्वतंत्र अफ्रीका” के प्रतीक हैं। लेकिन दूसरों के लिए, वे पुराने सैन्य शासकों की ही नई पोशाक हैं — जो “स्वतंत्रता” के नाम पर सत्ता को केंद्रीकृत कर रहे हैं।


दृष्टि और दमन के बीच संतुलन

क्या इब्राहीम ट्राओरे दूरदर्शी सुधारक हैं या अवसरवादी सत्तावादी? उत्तर शायद बीच में कहीं है।

उन्होंने अफ्रीकी आत्मनिर्भरता की भावना को पुनर्जीवित किया, विदेशी दोहन को चुनौती दी और साहसिक नीतियाँ लागू कीं। परंतु, मीडिया सेंसरशिप, सैन्यीकरण और अनिश्चित संक्रमणकाल जैसी प्रवृत्तियाँ उनके लोकतांत्रिक वादों को कमजोर करती हैं।

उनकी सबसे बड़ी परीक्षा यह होगी कि क्या वे क्रांतिकारी नेता से संस्थापक राष्ट्रनिर्माता बन सकते हैं — विद्रोह के प्रतीक से नवयुग के निर्माता


निष्कर्ष: नई अफ्रीका का बोझ

कैप्टन इब्राहीम ट्राओरे का बुर्किना फासो मुक्ति और अलगाव के बीच खड़ा है। उनका प्रयोग — राष्ट्रवाद, सैन्यवाद और आत्मनिर्भरता का अनूठा मिश्रण — वैश्विक दक्षिण में बढ़ती निर्भरता-विरोधी भावना को दर्शाता है।

यदि वे अपने राष्ट्र को स्थिर रखते हुए संप्रभुता कायम कर पाते हैं, तो वे आने वाले सदी के लिए अफ्रीकी नेतृत्व को पुनर्परिभाषित कर सकते हैं। लेकिन यदि वे असफल रहे, तो बुर्किना फासो एक और चेतावनी कथा बन जाएगा — जहाँ आदर्शवाद तो प्रबल था, परंतु विरोधाभासों के बोझ तले दब गया।


Thursday, August 07, 2025

Beyond BRICS: A New Vision for a Multipolar World Order

 



Beyond BRICS: A New Vision for a Multipolar World Order


The global balance of power is shifting. The old institutions built in the aftermath of World War II—led by the United Nations, the IMF, and the World Bank—no longer represent the interests and demographics of the 21st century. The BRICS bloc, originally an acronym coined for economic convenience, has evolved into something larger: a geopolitical movement seeking a more equitable world order. But it now faces a crossroads. If BRICS is to lead in shaping the future, it must transcend its original identity.

It’s time for BRICS to be reborn—with a new name, a permanent headquarters, and a bold voting formula that reflects the realities of a multipolar world.


A New Name for a New Era

BRICS—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—was never meant to be an institution. It was an investment banker’s acronym. Yet, over the years, it has become a geopolitical bloc, expanding its ranks and ambitions. With new members joining and dozens of countries expressing interest, a narrow acronym is no longer sufficient.

This new institution needs a name that signals openness, inclusion, and purpose. Names such as:

  • GEMO: Global Equitable Multipolar Organization

  • PEACE: Partnership for Economic Autonomy, Cooperation, and Equity

  • WEO: World Equity Organization

  • GNP+: Global Nations Partnership (Plus)

Whatever the final name, it should speak to values, not just geography or GDP. This is about justice, representation, and the rewriting of the post-colonial global contract.


Dubai: The Right Place for a Global Headquarters

If location signals intent, then Dubai is the ideal headquarters for the next-generation global organization. Why?

  • Geographical neutrality: Dubai sits at the crossroads of Asia, Africa, and Europe.

  • Modern infrastructure: It boasts one of the most advanced transportation and communication hubs in the world.

  • Symbolism: Dubai is a testament to what’s possible when vision meets investment—making it the perfect home for an institution imagining a better world order.

  • Diplomatic accessibility: The UAE has maintained cordial ties across geopolitical divides, making it a hub for multilateral diplomacy.

The World Government of Tomorrow, if it is to be born anywhere, can be born in Dubai.


Voting Formula: Fairness Reimagined (40–40–20)

One of the biggest failures of current global institutions like the UN Security Council is the disproportionate voting power given to a few countries—often relics of a bygone era. The new institution must reflect today's world, not the post-WWII status quo.

Here is a bold new formula:

40–40–20 Voting Structure
✅ 40% Weight — GDP Contribution
✅ 40% Weight — Population Share
✅ 20% Weight — One Country, One Vote (Sovereignty)

This formula balances economic power, demographic representation, and state sovereignty. It recognizes both scale and principle.

  • GDP weight ensures those contributing more economically have a voice proportionate to their investment.

  • Population weight corrects decades of underrepresentation of populous nations, especially in the Global South.

  • Sovereign equality preserves the dignity and legal parity of each nation, no matter how small.

This tri-partite formula ensures no one actor dominates. Instead, it encourages coalition-building, diplomacy, and compromise.


Open Membership: A Platform for All

Unlike the G7 or even the current BRICS, this new organization should be open to all interested countries willing to commit to the founding principles:

  • Economic cooperation based on mutual benefit

  • Non-intervention and respect for sovereignty

  • Commitment to global peace and climate justice

  • Building an inclusive international financial system

By opening its doors, the new bloc can emerge as a democratized counterweight to exclusive Western-dominated institutions. It doesn't aim to divide the world, but to rebalance it.


Conclusion: The Time Is Now

The world doesn’t need a new Cold War. It needs a new Global Compact—one where power is shared, justice is real, and every nation has a seat at the table.

A rebranded BRICS with a meaningful name, a headquarters in Dubai, and a fair 40-40-20 voting system could be the spark that ignites a multipolar world of cooperation instead of competition. The age of domination must give way to the age of dignity.

Let the new institution rise—not as a rival to the West, but as an equal partner in shaping the peace, prosperity, and purpose of the 21st century.



 

ब्रिक्स से आगे: एक बहुध्रुवीय विश्व व्यवस्था के लिए नया दृष्टिकोण


विश्व शक्ति संतुलन तेजी से बदल रहा है। द्वितीय विश्व युद्ध के बाद स्थापित संस्थाएँ—जैसे कि संयुक्त राष्ट्र, IMF और विश्व बैंक—अब 21वीं सदी के हितों और जनसांख्यिकी का प्रतिनिधित्व नहीं करतीं। BRICS समूह, जो मूल रूप से एक आर्थिक संक्षेपाक्षर था, अब एक बड़े उद्देश्य की ओर बढ़ चुका है: एक अधिक न्यायसंगत वैश्विक व्यवस्था की स्थापना। लेकिन अब यह एक चौराहे पर खड़ा है। यदि BRICS को भविष्य को आकार देना है, तो उसे अपनी मूल पहचान से आगे बढ़ना होगा।

अब समय आ गया है कि BRICS का पुनर्जन्म हो—एक नए नाम, एक स्थायी मुख्यालय, और एक साहसी मतदान सूत्र के साथ जो 21वीं सदी की बहुध्रुवीय सच्चाई को दर्शाता है।


एक नया नाम, एक नया युग

BRICS—ब्राज़ील, रूस, भारत, चीन और दक्षिण अफ्रीका—मूलतः एक निवेश बैंकर द्वारा गढ़ा गया शब्द था। लेकिन वर्षों के दौरान, यह एक भू-राजनीतिक संगठन बन गया, जो अब विस्तार कर रहा है और नए सदस्य जोड़ रहा है। ऐसे में यह सीमित नाम अब उपयुक्त नहीं है।

इस नए संगठन को एक ऐसा नाम चाहिए जो समावेश, उद्देश्य और न्याय को दर्शाए। कुछ संभावित नाम हो सकते हैं:

  • GEMO: ग्लोबल इक्विटेबल मल्टीपोलर ऑर्गनाइज़ेशन

  • PEACE: पार्टनरशिप फॉर इकोनॉमिक ऑटोनॉमी, कोऑपरेशन एंड इक्विटी

  • WEO: वर्ल्ड इक्विटी ऑर्गनाइज़ेशन

  • GNP+: ग्लोबल नेशंस पार्टनरशिप (प्लस)

जो भी नाम चुना जाए, वह केवल भौगोलिक या आर्थिक संकेत नहीं बल्कि मूल्यों को प्रकट करना चाहिए—न्याय, भागीदारी और पुनर्निर्माण।


मुख्यालय: दुबई—एक आदर्श स्थान

यदि स्थान इरादों का संकेत देता है, तो दुबई इस नए वैश्विक संगठन के लिए आदर्श मुख्यालय है। क्यों?

  • भौगोलिक तटस्थता: दुबई एशिया, अफ्रीका और यूरोप के केंद्र में स्थित है।

  • आधुनिक अवसंरचना: यह विश्व के सबसे उन्नत परिवहन और संचार केंद्रों में से एक है।

  • प्रतीकात्मकता: दुबई एक उदाहरण है कि दूरदृष्टि और निवेश से क्या संभव हो सकता है।

  • राजनयिक पहुंच: UAE ने विभिन्न गुटों से अच्छे संबंध बनाए रखे हैं, जिससे यह बहुपक्षीय संवाद का केंद्र बन गया है।

यदि "भविष्य की विश्व सरकार" कहीं जन्म ले सकती है, तो वह दुबई हो सकता है।


मतदान सूत्र: न्याय की नई परिभाषा (40–40–20)

UN सुरक्षा परिषद जैसी वर्तमान वैश्विक संस्थाओं की सबसे बड़ी विफलता यह है कि इनमें कुछ देशों को अत्यधिक शक्ति प्राप्त है—जो अब पुरानी हो चुकी है। नया संगठन आज की दुनिया का प्रतिनिधित्व करना चाहिए, न कि 1945 की।

एक साहसी और संतुलित सूत्र:

40–40–20 मतदान संरचना
✅ 40% — GDP (आर्थिक योगदान)
✅ 40% — जनसंख्या का प्रतिनिधित्व
✅ 20% — प्रत्येक देश को एक वोट (संप्रभुता का सम्मान)

यह सूत्र आर्थिक शक्ति, जनसंख्या आधारित प्रतिनिधित्व, और राज्य संप्रभुता—तीनों का संतुलन प्रदान करता है:

  • GDP आधारित वोटिंग से आर्थिक योगदान को मान्यता मिलती है।

  • जनसंख्या आधारित वोटिंग से भारत, चीन, अफ्रीका जैसे देशों को न्यायसंगत भागीदारी मिलती है।

  • "एक देश, एक वोट" से छोटे देशों को भी गरिमा और सम्मान मिलता है।

यह फार्मूला सुनिश्चित करता है कि कोई एक देश हावी न हो। इसका उद्देश्य है—डिप्लोमेसी, समन्वय और साझेदारी।


सभी देशों के लिए खुला मंच

G7 या मौजूदा BRICS के विपरीत, यह नया संगठन उन सभी देशों के लिए खुला होना चाहिए जो इसके मूल सिद्धांतों को अपनाने के लिए तैयार हों:

  • पारस्परिक लाभ पर आधारित आर्थिक सहयोग

  • संप्रभुता और हस्तक्षेप न करने की नीति

  • वैश्विक शांति और जलवायु न्याय के प्रति प्रतिबद्धता

  • एक समावेशी अंतर्राष्ट्रीय वित्तीय प्रणाली का निर्माण

इस तरह, यह संगठन एक निष्पक्ष विकल्प बन सकता है पश्चिमी-प्रधान संस्थाओं के सामने। इसका लक्ष्य विभाजन नहीं बल्कि संतुलन स्थापित करना है।


निष्कर्ष: समय आ गया है

दुनिया को एक और शीत युद्ध की आवश्यकता नहीं है। उसे एक नई वैश्विक संधि की आवश्यकता है—जहाँ शक्ति साझा हो, न्याय वास्तविक हो, और हर देश को एक गरिमामय स्थान मिले।

एक नया, नामांकित BRICS—with दुबई में मुख्यालय और 40-40-20 मतदान प्रणाली—बहुध्रुवीय सहयोग पर आधारित दुनिया का निर्माण कर सकता है। वर्चस्व का युग समाप्त होना चाहिए—अब गरिमा का युग शुरू होना चाहिए।

यह संगठन पश्चिम का विरोधी नहीं बल्कि समान स्तर का भागीदार बन सकता है।
आइए, नया युग शुरू करें—साथ मिलकर।


टैग्स: ब्रिक्स, बहुध्रुवीय विश्व, वैश्विक शासन, दुबई, मतदान सुधार, वैश्विक दक्षिण, संयुक्त राष्ट्र, नई विश्व व्यवस्था, संप्रभुता



Kalkiism: The Economic And Spiritual Blueprint For An Age Of Abundance
The Last Age: Lord Kalki, Prophecy, and the Final War for Peace
The Protocol of Greatness (novel)
A Reorganized UN: Built From Ground Up
The Drum Report: Markets, Tariffs, and the Man in the Basement (novel)
World War III Is Unnecessary
Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)

The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Saturday, February 26, 2022

The Endgame In Russia

Putin's Russia is a minor size economy. The Putin regime inside Russia is illegitimate. Putin is an autocrat. The people of Ukraine are being asked to fight the fight that the Russians inside Russia needed to fight. I don't see how this is going to go down well for Putin. Putin taking Kyiv is when the countdown begins. It is only a matter of time before the Putin regime implodes. Hopefully, Russia will see a liberal democracy and a subsequent resurgent economy. Ukraine will pave the way. A resurgent Russian economy will earn Russia its rightful place on the world map. This is Putin's Afghanistan. Liberty is worth fighting for. Putin just made a very bad move. Support for him will collapse inside Russia. NATO can not send in troops. But it needs to send in all possible military aid. It needs to organize camps for Ukrainian rebel fighters outside of Ukraine in the neighboring NATO member countries where they may regroup and plan their moves. The president of Ukraine needs to make a strategic retreat and step outside the country to become an active symbol of resistance. This is Afghanistan but it will not last 10 years. Putin is lucky if it will last one year. 

This is not about the United States. This is about Ukraine. This is not about NATO. This is about Ukraine. Ukraine is a sovereign country with the right to decide its own destiny. Putin is in the wrong. Putin's sugar high of the Ukraine invasion will not last. The hangover will kick in fast and will be lingering. 


Street fighting begins in Kyiv; people urged to seek shelter Russian troops are storming toward Ukraine’s capital, and street fighting is breaking out ....... The country's president refused an American offer to evacuate, insisting that he would stay. “The fight is here,” he said. ..........  Skirmishes reported on the edge of the city suggested that small Russian units were probing Ukrainian defenses to clear a path for the main forces. .........  Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered renewed assurance Saturday that the country’s military would stand up to the Russian invasion. In a video recorded on a downtown street, he said he had not left the city and that claims that the Ukrainian military would put down arms were false. ........... Putin is determined to overthrow Ukraine's government and replace it with a regime of his own. ......... quoted the president as saying that “the fight is here" and that he needed anti-tank ammunition but “not a ride.” ......... The U.S. and other global powers slapped ever-tougher sanctions on Russia as the invasion reverberated through the world’s economy and energy supplies. U.N. officials said millions could flee Ukraine. Sports leagues moved to punish Russia, and even the popular Eurovision song contest banned it from the May finals in Italy. ........... The 11-1 vote, with China, India and the United Arab Emirates abstaining, showed significant opposition to Russia’s invasion of its smaller, militarily weaker neighbor. .......... up to 4 million could flee if the fighting escalates. ........ Zelenskyy earlier offered to negotiate on a key Putin demand: that Ukraine declare itself neutral and abandon its ambition of joining NATO. ......... Zakharova, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, called the sanctions against Putin and Lavrov “an example and a demonstration of a total helplessness” of the West.

As Putin eyes Ukraine invasion, Trump praises his actions as 'genius'.  Donald Trump is calling the actions of the Russian president "genius" and "savvy." .......  Trump praised the Russian president while simultaneously slamming President Joe Biden for the situation. ......... Trump has long expressed an admiration for Putin, saying on Tuesday that as president, he got along "great" with the Russian leader. "He liked me. I liked him. I mean, you know, he's a tough cookie, got a lot of great charm and a lot of pride," Trump said. "And he loves his country, you know? He loves his country."

Putin was playing Biden all along The U.S. president and his aides thought they could manage Putin. Their calculations were dead wrong.  .........  for the past year, Biden tried repeatedly to reason with the steely-eyed strongman. ........... In launching a massive assault on Ukraine this week, Putin proved that he sees the world, and his interests, very differently than Biden hoped. He also proved resistant to many traditional tools of diplomacy and deterrence. ...........  The Ukraine attack and the risk of a larger war in Europe also bodes ill for the administration’s ability to focus on other priorities going forward, in particular the challenge of a rising China. ..........  On Thursday, Biden doubled down on the existing strategy, unveiling more sanctions, deploying more U.S. troops to Europe and promising more diplomacy to keep America and its allies unified. He warned that “Putin’s aggression against Ukraine will end up costing Russia dearly economically and strategically. We will make sure of that. Putin will be a pariah on the international stage.” .........  And on Thursday, the Russian leader dramatically escalated what is already an eight-year-long war, bombing major Ukrainian cities in an effort to take as much of the country as possible. ............  Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, as well as its citizens’ preference for democracy, only added to Putin’s fears that the country could be a long-term threat to his own. ........... At the same time, Putin has watched — and sometimes aided — regimes in places like Syria, Venezuela, and Iran, which have survived despite Western diplomatic threats and economic sanctions. ......... Putin is a believer in the ability of hard power to change the global order, and he may simply be less susceptible to what Biden may see as logical appeals to think about his global reputation..........  Putin, meanwhile, believes time is on his side. He’s planning to stay in power long after Biden departs, and he likely expects that the current united front that America and its allies are putting up against him will crack over time, especially if Europe feels ongoing pain from the blowback on Russian sanctions. ........... U.S. and European efforts to isolate Russia through sanctions will likely lead Moscow to lean on Beijing for trade and other economic relations. A solidified China-Russia bloc could then exert significant pressure on other countries to align with it or to at least stay neutral. .......... if Putin’s gambit in Ukraine succeeds, China might apply some of its lessons to its long-standing desire to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control. 

Putin’s Endgame: Unravel the Post-Cold War Agreements That Humiliated Russia Moscow’s military forces threaten Ukraine, but the bigger prize is restoration of Russia’s sphere of influence stretching through Eastern Europe ........  The world’s attention is on eastern Ukraine, where Moscow’s forces circle. Yet Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions extend far beyond. He wants to renegotiate the end of the Cold War.



India explores setting up rupee trade accounts with Russia to soften sanctions blow India is exploring ways to set up a rupee payment mechanism for trade with Russia to soften the blow on New Delhi of Western sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine ........ vital supplies of fertilizer from Russia could be disrupted as sanctions intensify, threatening India's vast farm sector. ....... Russia invaded Ukraine by land, air and sea on Thursday in the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two ........ Such mechanisms are often used by countries to shield themselves from the blow of sanctions and India also used it with Iran after it came under Western sanctions for its nuclear weapons programme ........... Russia's exports to India stood at $6.9 billion in 2021, mainly mineral oils, fertilisers and rough diamonds, while India exported $3.33 billion worth of goods to Russia in 2021, mainly pharmaceutical products, tea and coffee. ....... Russia and Belarus usually account for nearly a third of India's total potash imports. It would not be feasible to replace them amid a rally in fertilizer prices to a record high 





Fast becoming a cult hero, Ukraine leader Zelenskyy snubs US offer to evacuate him
Ukraine President rejects US offer to evacuate Kyiv: 'I need ammunition, not a ride' Putin has been reluctant in paying heed to such calls and even urged Ukraine’s military to mutiny. ........ "Strengthening sanctions, concrete defence assistance and an anti-war coalition have just been discussed" with Biden, Zelensky wrote on Twitter while expressing gratitude for "strong" American support.

Ukraine fight isn't proceeding as quickly as Russia expected, U.S. Defense official says Russia has encountered tougher resistance than it had anticipated from Ukrainian troops ...... About a third of the Russian troops that were placed along Ukraine's borders have now crossed into Ukraine

Should we be worried about nuclear war? . “No matter who tries to stand in our way or … create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.” ........ “Today’s Russia remains one of the most powerful nuclear states,” Putin said. ....... The Russian invasion has relied entirely on conventional weapons — tanks rattling down highways, bombers flying overhead, ships landing in the port city of Odesa — and experts told Vox that in the absence of a shocking escalation, that isn’t likely to change. ........ Russia has about 6,000 nuclear weapons and the United States has about 5,500. Either nuclear arsenal is large enough to kill billions of people — but also to serve as a deterrent against attack. ....... The seven other countries known to have nuclear weapons have much smaller arsenals. Most countries in the world have signed onto the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which limits the development of nuclear weapons. ...... “I think there is virtually no chance nuclear weapons are going to be used in the Ukraine situation,” said Matthew Bunn, a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and former adviser to President Clinton’s Office of Science and Technology Policy. ........ The main reason, Bunn said, is that the United States and its NATO allies have made clear that they will not send troops to Ukraine. Without the threat of military intervention, Putin has little reason to use his nuclear weapons, especially since Russia has a staggering numbers advantage over the Ukrainian military. ........ “His objective is to simply swallow Ukraine — and restore not just the [power of the] Soviet Union, but the Tsarist empire.” ........ Russia’s roughly 5,977 warheads make it the country with the largest nuclear arsenal. Kristensen said most of those warheads are in reserves, with only about 1,600 deployed as land, sea, and air-based weapons, such as missile silos or bombs dropped by planes. (When the USSR fell apart at the end of the Cold War, there were nuclear weapons left behind on Ukrainian soil, but Ukraine returned them to Russia.) ......... The countries known to have nuclear weapons are Russia, the United States, China, France, the United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. That includes every permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, which have been working to modernize their nuclear weapons over the past few decades, and three members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The total number of weapons has dropped by about 80 percent since the end of the Cold War, from an estimated 70,300 in 1986 to 12,700 in early 2022........... “The element of emotion and anger that’s crept into Putin’s statements in particular is striking,” said Hare. “Normally we’ve associated Russia’s diplomatic style with a kind of laconic, almost sarcastic manner.” ........ It’s worth remembering, Kristensen added, that Putin often makes allusions to Russia’s nuclear arsenal as a show of strength. In 2015, he told a Russian state TV documentary that he had considered putting Russian nuclear forces on alert during the Russian annexation of Crimea a year prior. ....... “He lives in a very small bubble, and he’s deeply paranoid,” Kristensen said. “He’s willing to do really not very rational things.” ...... the threat of nuclear weapons is the reason the US won’t send troops to Ukraine. ....... The existence of nuclear weapons “didn’t help us in Vietnam, they didn’t help us in Iraq, they didn’t help us in Afghanistan ......... “The whole international order is sort of being thrown up in the air. Is the Ukraine attack going to be a prelude to an attack on, say, the Baltic States that are even more vulnerable, or is Putin going to be satisfied with Ukraine?” ........ “We’re starting to see large powers begin to sort of entertain the thought of limited tactical nuclear weapons use scenarios, in a way that they didn’t spend very much time thinking about 10 years ago,” said Kristensen. These are the sorts of unlikely scenarios that have been tossed around in war games as contingencies since the Cold War, and could entail strikes on isolated military targets that are far from population centers .......... North Korea continues to build up its nuclear arsenal, India and Pakistan appear to be engaging in an arms race to build up short-range tactical nuclear weapons, and hostility is ratcheting up between the US, Russia, and China. ....... For decades, Bunn added, about one in every 10 US lightbulbs was powered by uranium from decommissioned Russian warheads, which was sent to American nuclear power plants — a reminder that the world actively worked together to turn a tool of destruction into a force for good. “That’s remarkable,” Bunn said. “It’s never been true before in human history that the most powerful weapon available to our species was widely forsworn.”

Russia-Ukraine latest news: Turkey could block Russian warship access to Black Sea, Zelenskiy suggests, in blow to Putin .



Russia’s Assault in Ukraine Slows After an Aggressive Start The invading forces have faced stiff resistance, but President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia could quickly send in more troops, Pentagon officials said. ......... For the Russian military, the difficult part came quickly. ........ It is one thing to cross the border of another country with tanks and artillery, protected by warplanes above, Pentagon officials and analysts say. It is another thing entirely to lay siege to cities and an army populated by people willing to put their lives on the line to protect what they view as their sovereign right to self-determination. ......... as Ukrainian fighters mounted a resistance. No population centers had been taken ....... The Ukrainian air defense and missile defense systems were degraded, he said, but the country’s air force was still flying planes and denying air access to Russia. ......... Russia was conducting most of its initial operations during the day, suggesting that its ability to fight at night — a hallmark of the American military — was less effective. ........ Russia was still in the initial phases of an operation that could take two to three weeks to seize most of the country. ........ The Russian military, with its decisive edge in cyberwarfare, tanks, heavy weaponry, missiles, fighter planes, warships and sheer numbers, dwarfs that of Ukraine. ........ While Russia has established attack lines into three cities — Kyiv in the north, Kharkiv in the northeast and Kherson in the south — Ukrainian troops are fighting to hold all three. ....... Ukrainian command and control remains intact. ......... Russia’s attack lines are bottlenecked, a second official said, as Ukrainian troops fiercely engage against the Russians. The resistance, the official said, is why the Russian troops massed at the border have not all crossed. ....... “But it’s a dynamic situation.” ......... If Russian intelligence has figured out where Mr. Zelensky and the rest of the Ukrainian leadership are hiding, the Russian military will probably try to take them out with rockets and airstrikes ......... “But the narrative that they’ve overrun Ukraine is very premature. We’re just a couple of days into this, and it could go on a long time.” ........ Ukrainian troops and citizens are fighting back ........ “The Ukrainians are badly overmatched in technology and sheer combat power, especially in the air and at sea, but are fighting on their homeland to protect their children and families,” said retired Adm. James G. Stavridis, the former supreme allied commander for Europe. “Motivation is far higher on their side, and the intangibles can help.” ....... The Russian military attack continued on Friday as it started the day before: with the terrifying thud of artillery strikes on airports and military installations all over Ukraine. ....... the Russians, using missiles and long-range artillery, were facing particularly strong resistance near Kyiv and Kharkiv. ....... Why Russia has not launched even larger cyberattacks across the country, and shut down virtually all communications, to cut off military units from their commanders in Kyiv and from each other remained a bit of a mystery on Friday. ......... many of Ukraine’s internet and phone communications go through Russia, Moscow might be leaving some lines open to eavesdrop on Ukrainian civilian and military officials. ......... By midday Friday, Russian forces had fired more than 200 missiles, mostly short-range ballistic rockets but also cruise missiles and rockets fired from the Black Sea, at targets across Ukraine ......... Russia insisted it was not bombing civilian targets and was trying to limit casualties in the Ukrainian military. ....... “Putin’s M.O. is to install new government and have them do the dirty work” ... “It’s unclear if he is underestimating the level of Ukrainian nationalism that’s developed since 2014.” .



Thousands of Russians protest President Vladimir V. Putin’s assault on Ukraine. Some chant: ‘No to war!’ At the demonstrations, many people said they felt depressed and broken by the news of Russian military action. ........ Thousands of protesters took to the streets and squares of Russian cities on Thursday to protest President Vladimir V. Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, only to be met with heavy police presence. ....... While many Russians credit Mr. Putin with lifting their country out of the economic hardship and instability of the 1990s, others are deeply uneasy about his leadership. And tough sanctions that affect everyday Russians, like potential technology embargoes that could separate Russians from their beloved next-generation phones, could diminish his support at home. .......... years of government oppression made the risks of taking part in anti-Kremlin demonstrations very high. ....... Russian people “will only get poorer because we depend on international trade so much.” ............

Oxxxymiron, one of Russia’s most popular rappers, called for an antiwar movement to be created in Russia that would unite people.

......... “I know that most people in Russia are against this war, and I am confident that the more people would talk about their real attitude to it, the faster we can stop this horror,” said Oxxxymiron, also known as Miron Fyodorov. ........... He referred to American protests against the war in Vietnam as an inspiration. “This is a crime and a catastrophe,” he said, adding that he will cancel his six sold out concerts in Moscow and St. Petersburg because of what happened. ..... “I cannot entertain you when Russian missiles are falling on Ukraine,” said Oxxxymiron in a statement, published in his Instagram account. “When residents of Kyiv are forced to hide in basements and in the metro, while people are dying.” ....... But last year, with the economy stumbling and the pandemic raging, opposition groups held some of the largest anti-Putin protests in years.
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