Gavin Newsom suggests he will make all 52 congressional districts in California blue if Republicans gerrymander Texas on behalf of Trump. pic.twitter.com/T6gBjmdBth
— No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen (@NoLieWithBTC) August 1, 2025
Schumer on weak jobs report: ‘Chickens are coming home to roost’ on trade war The Effects of Trump's Trade Policy Won't Be Undone U.S. President Donald Trump signed a series of executive orders late yesterday setting an updated schedule of sweeping tariffs, most of which will take effect Aug. 7. The new rates reflect a series of preliminary trade agreements reached in recent months with major U.S. trading partners, while dozens of other countries were hit with levies ranging from 15 to 40 percent. The orders also confirmed a baseline 10 percent tariff for the dozens of countries not hit with higher rates. ........ And the fact that the tariffs announced yesterday won't go into effect for another five days means that there is still the chance that Trump will once again modify or reverse course. ............ The long-term truce between the U.S. and China while they continue to negotiate has also taken the worst-case scenario of a trade war between the world's top two economies off the table for now. And while the framework trade deals that have been announced are vague, they at least provide some predictability for U.S. trade relationships with many of the world's largest economies. ..........
the global economy is just now reaching a point at which Trump's trade policy will begin to have significant impact
.......... all of this will put more pressure on the U.S. dollar, which has already been weakened this year by Trump's tariff policy, his threatening of the Federal Reserve Board's independence .......... Considering how dollar-dependent the global financial architecture remains, the dollar's weakening will create even more risk and uncertainty for the global economy in the months and years ahead. ........ the damage that has been done just six months into his second term to U.S. institutions and the rule of law suggests that the U.S. is in for a long, painful and difficult political reckoning for years to come, at a time when its domestic politics have become polarized, paralyzed and dysfunctional. ......... Trump struck trade deals with the European Union and Japan to impose a 15 percent tariff on both trading partners. He also announced a deal with South Korea on Wednesday, imposing a 15 percent tariff on goods from there as well. ................. The White House has eagerly touted Trump’s dealmaking spree while laughing off the dire predictions from economists, who are bracing for a much bigger hit from new import taxes..... “What we are watching is President Trump rebuilding the greatest economy in the history of the world and simultaneously proving the so-called economic experts wrong at every turn,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said.
The Effects of Trump's Trade Policy Won't Be Undone U.S. President Donald Trump signed a series of executive orders late yesterday setting an updated schedule of sweeping tariffs, most of which will take effect Aug. 7. The new rates reflect a series of preliminary trade agreements reached in recent months with major U.S. trading partners, while dozens of other countries were hit with levies ranging from 15 to 40 percent. The orders also confirmed a baseline 10 percent tariff for the dozens of countries not hit with higher rates. ........ And the fact that the tariffs announced yesterday won't go into effect for another five days means that there is still the chance that Trump will once again modify or reverse course. ............ The long-term truce between the U.S. and China while they continue to negotiate has also taken the worst-case scenario of a trade war between the world's top two economies off the table for now. And while the framework trade deals that have been announced are vague, they at least provide some predictability for U.S. trade relationships with many of the world's largest economies. ..........
the global economy is just now reaching a point at which Trump's trade policy will begin to have significant impact
.......... all of this will put more pressure on the U.S. dollar, which has already been weakened this year by Trump's tariff policy, his threatening of the Federal Reserve Board's independence .......... Considering how dollar-dependent the global financial architecture remains, the dollar's weakening will create even more risk and uncertainty for the global economy in the months and years ahead. ........ the damage that has been done just six months into his second term to U.S. institutions and the rule of law suggests that the U.S. is in for a long, painful and difficult political reckoning for years to come, at a time when its domestic politics have become polarized, paralyzed and dysfunctional. ......... Trump struck trade deals with the European Union and Japan to impose a 15 percent tariff on both trading partners. He also announced a deal with South Korea on Wednesday, imposing a 15 percent tariff on goods from there as well. ................. The White House has eagerly touted Trump’s dealmaking spree while laughing off the dire predictions from economists, who are bracing for a much bigger hit from new import taxes..... “What we are watching is President Trump rebuilding the greatest economy in the history of the world and simultaneously proving the so-called economic experts wrong at every turn,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. .........
The majority of surveyed Americans also said Trump’s tariffs will increase prices, with only 7 percent of those surveyed saying they will have no effect.
........ The impact on prices will be seen before the end of the year, once the tariffs hit companies and they pass them along to consumers .......... to date, we’re actually seeing businesses pulling back because of the uncertainty ....... Trump also declared on Wednesday, after months of administration officials claiming a deal was imminent, that he would impose a 25 percent tariff on India and slap on a penalty for buying military equipment and energy from Russia amid the war in Ukraine.
Trump moves nuclear submarines in response to Russia's 'highly provocative' statement "I want to be generous, but we just don't see any progress being made," Trump said. "I'm not so interested in talking anymore." ....... "Trump's playing the ultimatum game with Russia: 50 days or 10… He should remember 2 things: 1. Russia isn't Israel or even Iran. 2. Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with his own country. Don't go down the Sleepy Joe road!" Medvedev posted on X earlier this week.
Iran’s New Ultimatum to the U.S. Could Spark Another War In a stunning new demand, Iran has declared it will only return to nuclear negotiations if the United States first provides compensation for the damage caused by recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on its nuclear facilities. ...... Araghchi echoed recent claims by Iranian officials that the door to diplomacy with Washington remains open, but drew a harder line this time, laying out its own conditions for nuclear talks. ....... “They should explain why they attacked us in the middle of…negotiations, and they have to ensure that they are not going to repeat that (during future talks),” Araghchi told The Financial Times. ........ The Natanz fuel enrichment plant was first revealed to the IAEA in 2002, with enrichment operations beginning around 2010. The Fordow plant was unveiled in 2009, with construction believed to have begun sometime between 2006 and 2007. ....... Araghchi has been in regular contact with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, exchanging messages in the weeks since the 12-day war came to an end. ........ discussions so far have produced no new agreement, and the clock is ticking as the end-of-August deadline for agreeing to a new nuclear deal approaches. ........ Failure to meet the deadline, Rubio said, would mean Britain, Germany, France, and the U.S. triggering a “snapback” mechanism under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action deal, reimplementing sweeping sanctions against Iran.
De-Dollarization Is Inevitable. The World Isn’t Prepared In late May, yields on U.S. Treasury bonds jumped to their highest level since 2023, after the House of Representatives passed sweeping tax cuts as part of President Donald Trump’s proposed budget. The higher effective interest rate on U.S. government borrowing reflected investors’ concerns over the fiscal impact of the bill, which if passed by the Senate and signed into law would add $3.8 trillion to the federal debt—currently at $36.2 trillion—over the coming decade, according to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office. ....... The convulsions in the U.S. bond market represent more than a momentary financial hiccup. They signal the early tremors of what JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon called an impending “crack in the bond market” that could set off a potentially catastrophic realignment in the global economic order. As yields on long-term U.S. government debt surge past 5 percent, the international community is beginning to face the uncomfortable reality that the world’s hegemon is galloping toward a sovereign debt crisis with no clear resolution in sight. ............. Unlike previous sovereign debt crises that afflicted peripheral economies or even major European nations, however, the emerging U.S. fiscal crisis threatens the very foundation of the post-Bretton Woods international monetary system. Hanging in the balance are the dollar’s role as the global reserve currency, the Treasury market’s function as the world’s safe haven and the United States’ capacity to serve as the consumer of last resort. The implications extend to every central bank, sovereign wealth fund and international institution that has built its foundations on the assumption of U.S. fiscal stability. .............. The international ramifications of a U.S. fiscal crisis would dwarf any financial contagion witnessed in modern history. U.S. Treasury bonds serve multiple critical functions in the global financial system. They are the primary reserve asset for central banks, the preferred collateral for international transactions and the benchmark “risk-free” rate against which all other assets are priced. Approximately $9 trillion in Treasuries are held by foreign governments and investors, with almost a third of that sum being held by just three countries—Japan, the U.K. and China—alone. .......... A sustained loss of confidence in U.S. fiscal management would trigger a cascade of consequences. Should the price of Treasuries, which moves inversely to yields, fall precipitously, central banks around the world would face massive paper losses on their reserve holdings, potentially destabilizing their own currencies. The global banking system, which relies on Treasuries as high-quality collateral, would experience a severe liquidity crunch. Emerging markets, whose debt is often priced at a premium over U.S. Treasuries, would see borrowing costs skyrocket regardless of their own fiscal prudence. ............
The most troubling aspect of the United States’ fiscal trajectory is the apparent inability of its political system to correct course.
.................... The geopolitical implications are equally profound. A fiscally weakened United States would struggle to maintain its global military commitments, creating power vacuums that rival powers would eagerly fill. The dollar’s weaponization through sanctions—a key tool of U.S. foreign policy—would lose its potency, as countries accelerate efforts to build alternative payment systems. Already, China’s experiments with “digital yuan” cross-border settlements and expansion of bilateral currency swap agreements signal a world preparing for reduced dollar dependence. ............... Predictions of the dollar’s demise have circulated for decades, from the 1970s stagflation crisis through the 2008 global financial crisis. Each time, the dollar emerged stronger, benefiting from what Barry Eichengreen called its “exorbitant privilege”—the U.S. government’s ability to borrow in its own currency at preferential rates while other nations hold dollars as reserves. Critics sounding alarm bells about U.S. fiscal profligacy have consistently been proven wrong. So why should anyone believe this time is different? ............. When earlier predictions of dollar decline were made, U.S. debt-to-GDP ratios were a fraction of today’s levels—under 40 percent in the 1970s and around 65 percent before the 2008 crisis. Currently, that figure sits at 121 percent, or double the 60 percent benchmark widely considered to be fiscally sustainable. .................... More critically, in these earlier periods, the U.S. political system was still capable of bipartisan compromise on fiscal matters. The Social Security reform passed in 1983 and budget agreements negotiated in the 1990s demonstrated that U.S. democracy could still make hard choices when necessary. ............ Today’s political landscape offers no such hope. The hyper-partisanship that has paralyzed Washington shows no signs of abating. Primary systems that punish fiscal moderation and reward fiscal profligacy have created political incentives that virtually guarantee continued deterioration. Meanwhile, technological alternatives to the dollar system that didn’t exist during previous crises are rapidly maturing, from China’s digital yuan trials with trading partners to sophisticated currency swap networks.
Countries seeking to insulate themselves from U.S. financial sanctions are actively building the infrastructure for a post-dollar world.
................... Japan carries a staggering 250 percent debt-to-GDP ratio and is beginning to buckle under the pressure of its crushing debt. European nations, already struggling with high debt levels, now confront the need for dramatic increases in defense spending as U.S. security guarantees become unreliable. Meeting NATO’s target of 2 percent of GDP dedicated to defense spending would require European members to find tens of billions of additional euros annually, at a time when many are already running significant deficits. Worse still, the alliance is now close to agreeing to the Trump administration’s demand that it raise the defense spending target to 5 percent of GDP. Even China is grappling with a local government debt crisis and a property sector meltdown that threatens its financial stability. When everyone is fiscally stretched, the coordination needed to manage a crisis becomes nearly impossible. ........... The feedback loop now threatening to take hold follows a familiar pattern from previous sovereign debt crises elsewhere in the world, albeit at an unprecedented scale. As markets lose confidence in a country’s fiscal sustainability, they demand higher yields to compensate for the greater risk they are taking in buying sovereign debt. These higher borrowing costs worsen the nation’s fiscal position, further eroding investor confidence and driving yields higher still.
In emerging markets, this spiral typically ends with intervention by the International Monetary Fund and painful structural adjustment. For the world’s largest economy and reserve currency issuer, no such external stabilizer exists.
......................... The Social Security pension program’s trust fund will run dry in 2033, after which benefit cuts of approximately 20 percent—considered the “third rail” of U.S. politics—automatically kick in. The Medicare low-income health insurance program confronts similar pressures three years thereafter, in 2036. Added to this is the fact that, when these crises hit, the U.S. can expect to be spending around $2 trillion annually on interest payments alone at current projections. .............. the U.S. now relies on immigration as the primary driver of population growth. However,
amid U.S. political dysfunction, societal polarization and the Trump administration’s overtly xenophobic policies, the country is likely to be increasingly unattractive to potential immigrants, meaning it will be severing this demographic lifeline just when it’s needed most. Should immigration continue to decline, the entitlement math becomes even more catastrophic.
................... While the entitlement crises of 2033-2036 represent structural breaking points, several near-term developments could trigger a crisis much sooner. As evidenced by last month’s tremors, the Treasury market is already showing signs of stress. Weak auctions, in which demand barely covers the debt on offer and yields spike to attract sufficient buyers, have become more frequent. The return of “bond vigilantes,” who sell off their Treasury holdings to register their disapproval of U.S. fiscal policy, could begin forcing yields sharply higher, requiring primary dealers—banks and securities brokers that buy Treasuries directly from the Fed to sell on to individual investors—to absorb an unusually large share. ............ The psychological threshold of 5 percent yields on 10-year Treasuries has already been breached multiple times. Should yields settle above 6 percent—a level last seen in the runup to the 2008 financial crisis—the feedback loop between higher borrowing costs and deteriorating fiscal metrics could quickly become self-reinforcing. ................... Standard & Poor’s already downgraded U.S. debt from its AAA rating back in 2011, with Fitch following suit in 2023. Moody’s completed the trifecta last month, stripping the U.S. of its last AAA rating. With all three major agencies now rating U.S. debt below perfect, forced selling by institutions mandated to own only AAA-rated securities, such as pension funds and public employee unions, has already begun. ...........
U.S. sovereign risk is now comparable to countries with BBB+ ratings like Italy and Greece
, a striking disconnect from official ratings that reveals how markets truly assess U.S. fiscal sustainability. ................ The most troubling aspect of the United States’ fiscal trajectory is the apparent inability of its political system to correct course. Any serious fiscal consolidation would require both significant tax increases and entitlement reform, a combination that has become politically radioactive. The last serious attempt at such a fiscal grand bargain came in 2011, during the administration of then-President Barack Obama, and it failed. Since then, both parties have retreated to their respective corners, with Republicans refusing to countenance tax increases and Democrats protecting entitlement programs from any meaningful reform. ............ The world’s economic architecture remains anchored to a hegemon that lacks the political capacity for fiscal self-correction. This recognition should prompt urgent consideration of how to manage an orderly transition away from dollar dependence rather than awaiting an inevitable and chaotic collapse. .............. In the face of these daunting fiscal realities, many market participants cling to scenarios that might avert catastrophe. Chief among these is the hope for a tech-driven productivity boom that could generate enough growth to outrun the debt spiral. Yet even if artificial intelligence, or AI, delivers on its most optimistic promises, the timeline for such transformation extends well beyond the 2033-2036 entitlement crisis window. .......... More troublingly, mounting evidence suggests the AI revolution may itself be a bubble. And even if it does eventually pay dividends, the historical precedents of previous “frontier” technologies—like railroads, automobiles and the dotcom bubble—suggest there will be massive over-investment, with only a few firms surviving into the mature phase of adoption. Should the current AI investment mania collapse, taking trillions of dollars in market capitalization with it, the fiscal crisis would accelerate dramatically just when the economy could least afford another shock............ the notion that the Federal Reserve could simply monetize the debt through unlimited money-printing ignores both the inflationary consequences of doing so and the damage it would do to the dollar’s reserve status. The Bank of Japan’s decades-long experiment with monetary expansion has only been possible because of Japan’s unique economic characteristics—high domestic savings, persistent deflation and current account surpluses—none of which apply to the United States. ............
The choice facing the international community is not whether to end the dollar’s privileged position but whether that end comes through careful preparation or catastrophic crisis.
.............. the pound sterling’s decline from premier reserve currency status took several decades and was managed without systemic collapse. However, that transition benefited from an obvious successor currency in the dollar and a cooperative relationship between the U.K. and U.S. as the declining and rising powers, respectively. Today’s interconnected financial system, the scale of dollar dependence and the absence of a clear alternative all suggest we may not have the luxury of such a gradual, orderly transition. ............. The challenges to de-dollarization remain formidable. Network effects make the dollar’s dominance self-reinforcing—everyone uses dollars because everyone else uses dollars. No alternative currency matches the depth and liquidity of U.S. Treasury markets. The euro suffers from structural flaws exposed during the sovereign debt crisis of the 2010s. The yuan remains hobbled by capital controls and political risk. Yet these very challenges make preparation more urgent, not less. .................. The IMF’s Special Drawing Rights—based on a basket of currencies and used as a unit of account and settlement among its member states—never achieved critical mass since their introduction in 1969, because they offered no advantages over dollars for most transactions. Regional payment systems like the Asian Clearing Union remained marginal because they couldn’t match the dollar’s convenience and acceptability. But multiple factors suggest the next attempts might succeed where others failed. .................. digital currency technology enables instantaneous, low-cost multicurrency transactions that weren’t possible in previous eras. Central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs, could enable efficient settlement systems that reduce reliance on dollar intermediation. China’s digital yuan trials demonstrate the potential for technology to accelerate monetary transformation, particularly as countries seek to insulate themselves from U.S. financial sanctions. A basket-based digital settlement system, perhaps administered by the IMF or a new international institution, could provide stability while reducing single-currency dependence. ........... the sheer scale of countries now seeking alternatives to the dollar creates momentum that didn’t exist before. The BRICS nations, representing 40 percent of the world’s population and over a third of global GDP, are actively developing alternative payment mechanisms. Their New Development Bank, while still small, provides a template for non-dollar development finance. As more countries join these initiatives, network effects could begin working against the dollar rather than for it. ............... the private sector is increasingly hedging against dollar risk. Major commodity traders are experimenting with yuan-denominated contracts. Corporate treasurers are developing multi-currency cash-management systems. All these micro-level adaptations could help accelerate macro-level change when crisis hits by providing a number of alternatives to the status quo. ............ For U.S. allies, this transition presents acute dilemmas. Countries like Japan, South Korea and the European NATO members must balance their security dependence on Washington with the need to protect their economic interests from U.S. fiscal instability. This may require uncomfortable conversations about burden-sharing and the development of regional security arrangements that could fill the vacuum left behind as the U.S. military’s capacity diminishes. With the Trump administration already undermining confidence in Washington’s security commitments, this task becomes all the more urgent. ............. The warning signs of U.S. fiscal instability are multiplying, from debt-ratings downgrades to surging yields on Treasuries. Yet the global financial architecture remains as dollar-dependent as ever, creating a dangerous mismatch between emerging risks and institutional preparedness. ........ Policymakers worldwide must begin not just planning for a post-dollar monetary order but actively constructing one. This doesn’t require abandoning the dollar immediately or indulging in wishful thinking about its demise. Rather, it demands pragmatic preparation for a transition that appears increasingly inevitable. Central banks, which are diversifying their reserves into gold at the fastest pace in decades, should do so even more aggressively. Financial institutions should stress-test for dollar disruption scenarios. International bodies should accelerate work on alternative payment and settlement mechanisms. .......... This transition need not be disorderly. With sufficient foresight and cooperation, the world could evolve toward a more balanced, multipolar monetary system that actually enhances stability. But this requires acknowledging that the current trajectory is unsustainable and that waiting for U.S. political dysfunction to self-correct is a recipe for disaster. ............. The question now is whether the international community will act on this recognition or continue moving toward a preventable catastrophe. The bond market is already beginning to vote with its feet. The rest of the world would be wise to follow suit—not in panic, but in prudent preparation for a new monetary order. .............. Nicholas Creel is an associate professor of business law and ethics at Georgia College & State University.
Putin Passes New Law That Even His Own Circle Is Alarmed About Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a law that penalizes individuals for searching online content deemed “extremist” by the state. .......... The move has sparked concern, even among typically loyal Kremlin supporters, for its sweeping implications........ With vague definitions and harsh penalties, the law marks a deepening of Russia’s authoritarian grip.
Commentary: Trump isn't 'winning' his trade wars Trump is shackling the US economy and threatening his own political future. His tariffs will inevitably weaken the economy and rattle voters who are already losing faith in Trump's ability to safeguard their prosperity. ....... Trump's supposed "wins" of late include trade deals with South Korea, Japan, Indonesia, and the European Union. Still in the works are deals with Canada, Mexico, and China, the top three US trading partners. Most of the deals announced so far lack specifics and may be more like frameworks for deals that will take months to hammer out. .......... The tariffs are cutting into profits at Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Procter & Gamble (PG), and many other American companies, including some that say they'll have to pass the higher costs on to consumers through higher prices. Shoppers will face renewed inflationary pressures and a slowdown in hiring likely to come from slower growth. .......... Trump tariff defenders argue that economists have been wrong about inflation because it hasn't shown up yet. But that is probably just a matter of timing. Producers and merchants stocked up on imports during the first quarter, knowing the Trump tariffs were coming. They bought a lot less in the second quarter, when many new tariffs were in effect. That is only now beginning to show up in everyday prices. But the early signs show inflation picking up exactly where you'd expect import tariffs to hit. ......... Inflation data for June showed unusual month-to-month increases in the cost of appliances, toys, clothing, and sporting goods. Imports dominate those product sectors, so if you were looking for tariff-related inflation, that's where you'd find it. "Tariffs [are] beginning to rear their ugly head," Oxford Economics explained in a July 15 analysis. "Tariff impacts on the economy are still in the pipeline." ........... The Yale Budget Lab expects higher tariffs to cost the typical household about $2,100 per year, once importers, suppliers, and consumers have adjusted to higher prices by shifting their business strategies and buying habits. .......... If the government forced every family in the US to cough up an extra $2,100 per year, there would be national outrage and maybe revolt. The tariffs won't work like that. Part of the cost to families will be gradually rising prices, some noticeable, others not. Economists generally think the tariffs will push the annual inflation rate from 2.7% now to the high threes or maybe 4%. It's already up from a low of 2.3% in April. But 4% isn't nearly as painful as the 9% inflation from 2022. ......... Other parts of the cost to families will come from slower economic growth, which in turn will mean lower pay than some workers would otherwise earn and slightly higher unemployment. Tariffs are inefficient, introducing new costs and barriers to trade. That hurts growth. .......... Trump wants Congress to pass legislation to send "tariff rebates" of $600 or more to most taxpayers, drawing the funds from new tariff revenue the Treasury is collecting. Thoughtful voters might ask why Trump is imposing new taxes on one hand, then offering relief from those taxes through a rebate. Wouldn't it be better to do nothing in the first place? ............. Trump's approval rating for his handling of the economy dropped from 42% in February to 37% in July ........ His overall approval rating dropped from 47% when he took office to 37%. ......... Voters chose Trump in the 2024 presidential race in large part because they wanted him to bring prices down and create more opportunity than they experienced during the Biden years. Trump, so far, is doing the opposite. ........ Consumer confidence has mostly fallen since Trump took office, with the University of Michigan sentiment index nearly as low as it was at the moment of peak inflation in 2022. ........
If Trump is winning, then it's ordinary Americans he's winning against.
Economy is getting worse under Trump’s leadership, Americans say in new poll on eve of his tariff D-Day the president’s tariff agenda is one of the biggest anchors driving down his approval numbers. ........ On the core issue of tariffs, Trump is clearly tanking — despite months of pronouncements from the White House of America’s impending “Golden Age.” ....... Four in ten Americans say that Trump’s tariffs will make the country poorer and stifle economic growth. Just 26 percent believe the White House’s line about economic prosperity coming down the pike. ............ And most alarmingly for the White House, inflation still ranks as the No. 1 issue for voters. That could prove to be dangerous ground for the president as the summer concludes with potentially sharp increases to consumer prices stemming from the president’s reciprocal tariffs. ............ Six in 10 of voters under 30 now say that Trump’s policies are harming the economy, and making them worse off financially. Seven in 10 voters in the same category say that they didn’t believe the president is focused enough on lowering prices for consumers. ........... If Trump is losing ground with the younger voters he peeled off from Democrats in 2024, Republicans are set for trouble in the midterm elections next year. Polling isn’t yet registering significant voter support for the GOP budget reconciliation package, the “big, beautiful bill”, as it’s been overshadowed by the president’s tariffs and mass deportation agenda, among other issues. ......... Another factor driving down Trump’s numbers with younger voters is Jeffrey Epstein. .......... The sudden declaration that the “Epstein Client List”, which Vice President JD Vance and others in the administration pledged to release, supposedly did not exist at all erupted into a wildfire on the MAGA right, particularly among Trump’s younger supporters. .......... more than four in ten, think that Trump and his team have partially or completely lied in their public statements regarding the case. Less than 20 percent of Americans believe them. ............. Immigration has been another issue where the president has lost ground as the White House and Department of Homeland Security have accelerated mass deportation programs under his second term. Images of immigration enforcement raids have caused massive protests in Los Angeles and alarmed many Americans including Trump-supporting independents around the country. ............ Nearly every poll on the Decision Desk HQ Average, with the exception of two surveys conducted by Republican outfits, now shows Trump with popularity ratings in the negative, some by double digits.
Trump’s new tariffs have no precedent in the modern era In just six months, President Donald Trump has remade global trade and upended a century of precedent. ........ Trump on Thursday announced higher tariffs — again — on just about every country in the world. Even as some countries’ tariff rates came in lower than they had feared, practically all goods coming in to the United States face a significantly higher tax than when Trump took office in January. ........... The new trade regime will put in place the highest tariffs America has imposed since 1933, during the Smoot-Hawley era — a tariff bill that contributed to the deepening of the Great Depression. ....... there’s already some evidence Trump’s tariffs are — slowly — reigniting inflation and slowing the US economy. ......... That danger is why leaders of developed countries for decades have largely lowered tariff rates and welcomed globalization — actions that have fueled the services economy backed by Big Tech and finance, but have also contributed to the offshoring of factories and manufacturing jobs. ......... Last year, imports to the United States faced an effective tariff rate of 1.2%, a low tax that has fallen over the course of many decades. Declining tariffs in part persuaded US companies to make their products in foreign countries where labor costs were cheaper — and then ship those goods back into the United States while facing a relatively minuscule tax penalty for doing so. ......... Apple on Thursday said it paid $800 million in tariffs last quarter and expects to pay $1.1 billion this quarter. Automakers, including GM, Stellantis and Volkswagen, also reported tariff costs of over $1 billion over the past quarter. ........
Many major retailers, including Walmart and Target, have said recently they wouldn’t be able to absorb all the tariff costs and would raise prices for their customers.
............... Despite some negative reaction on Wall Street Friday, stocks remain near record highs. US gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy, bounced back sharply in the second quarter by some measures. The labor market has remained resilient, and inflation is still reasonably close to normal levels. ............ Tariffs have worked in many of those regards: The Treasury Department reports about $150 billion in tariff revenue since Trump took office, up considerably from previous years. Numerous American manufacturers have announced major commitments to build new factories in the United States. Trump has used the threat of tariffs to impose his will on multiple countries to negotiate everything from peace deals to lower taxes. And America’s trade gap briefly narrowed earlier this year. ............ Tariff revenue is paid in the form of a tax on US importers, not foreign countries as Trump routinely claims. Many of the companies’ factory announcements were already in the works or are years away from taking place, and — considering America has about 400,000 open manufacturing jobs it can’t fill — it’s not clear where the labor force for those factories will come from. Trump’s tariff threats don’t always work and sometimes penalize US consumers, who have to pay higher prices as a result. And the trade gap, after countries worked through their pre-tariff inventories, is widening again. ....... economists continue to fear a delayed shock reaction that could damage the global economy and take America’s standing in the world down a peg.
Canada has responded to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats with a combination of diplomatic negotiations, strategic concessions, and preparations for retaliatory measures. Trump’s tariff threats include a proposed 35% tariff on Canadian goods starting August 1, 2025, along with existing tariffs of 50% on steel and aluminum, and 25% on automobiles. In response, Canada, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, has:
Engaged in Intense Negotiations: Canada has been negotiating updates to trade and security agreements with the U.S., aiming to either avoid or mitigate the impact of tariffs. Carney initially set a July 21 deadline for a deal, which was extended to August 1 after Trump’s letter. While negotiations have been described as professional, they have been challenging due to Trump’s unpredictability.
Made Concessions: Canada scrapped a planned Digital Services Tax (DST) on tech companies in June 2025 after Trump threatened to halt talks. This move showed Canada’s willingness to compromise to keep the negotiations alive.
Prepared Retaliatory Measures: Canada has outlined a C$155 billion package of staged retaliatory tariffs, which will be implemented depending on U.S. actions. Carney has emphasized defending Canadian workers and companies, with potential excise duties on oil, potash, and other commodities.
Diversified Trade and Strengthened Domestic Economy: Carney has prioritized reducing reliance on the U.S. by expanding trade with other countries. This includes signing an arms deal with the EU and accelerating infrastructure projects, such as pipelines and nuclear plants, to boost domestic growth.
Delayed Immediate Retaliation: Despite pressure from industries and Ontario Premier Doug Ford, Canada paused plans to double tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% after Trump extended the negotiation deadline.
Mark Carney’s Approach and Differences
Mark Carney, a former banker and central banker of Canada and Britain, assumed office in March 2025 and won a general election in April on an anti-Trump platform, promising a more assertive stance against U.S. protectionism. His approach differs from his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, in several ways:
Professional and Diplomatic Tone: Unlike Trudeau’s acrimonious relationship with Trump, Carney has fostered a warmer, more collegial atmosphere. Trump has even referred to Carney as a “terrific guy.” This shift has helped maintain cordial negotiations with frequent communication between officials.
Strategic Concessions: Carney has adopted a pragmatic approach, making concessions like scrapping the DST to keep talks alive. Some critics argue that this shows weakness compared to his campaign promise to maintain a tough stance.
Economic Diversification: Carney has focused on long-term resilience by diversifying trade and investing in infrastructure. This contrasts with Trudeau’s emphasis on maintaining the status quo of U.S.-Canada trade integration.
Realistic Outlook: Initially optimistic about avoiding tariffs, Carney has recently acknowledged that no country is likely to secure a tariff-free deal with Trump, signaling a shift toward managing the economic fallout rather than expecting exemptions.
Political Neophyte with Financial Expertise: Carney’s background in finance gives him credibility in economic negotiations. However, his lack of political experience has led to criticism from opponents like Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who argue that he is conceding too much.
Carney’s approach strikes a balance between assertiveness and pragmatism, aiming to protect Canadian interests while navigating Trump’s volatile tactics—quite the contrast to Trudeau’s more confrontational approach, which often escalated tensions.
Coordination with Canadian Premiers
Carney has actively coordinated with Canada’s 13 provincial and territorial premiers to present a united front against Trump’s tariffs, although differences persist:
Emergency Meetings: Carney convened an emergency meeting with premiers on July 21, 2025, to discuss Trump’s tariff threats. A follow-up three-day meeting underscored unity but revealed divisions on retaliation and infrastructure plans.
United Team Canada Approach: Ontario Premier Doug Ford, a key ally, emphasized a “united Team Canada approach” despite frustrations with Trump’s unpredictability. Ford pushed for retaliatory tariffs but agreed to align with Carney’s strategy.
Differing Views: Premiers such as British Columbia’s David Eby criticized U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra’s remarks, reinforcing Canadian sovereignty. Quebec’s François Legault expressed skepticism about reaching a deal with Trump, while Ford advocated for aggressive retaliation.
Infrastructure Disputes: Carney’s plan to fast-track projects like oil pipelines faced opposition from Indigenous groups and environmentalists. Additionally, some premiers disagreed on prioritizing infrastructure projects over trade retaliation.
Despite these tensions, Carney’s leadership has fostered a degree of cohesion, with premiers rallying around defending Canadian economic interests.
Coordination with Canadian Industries
Carney’s government has engaged with various industries to mitigate the impact of tariffs and strengthen economic resilience:
Auto Industry Focus: The highly integrated North American auto sector, vulnerable to Trump’s tariffs, has been a priority for Carney’s consultations with industry leaders to assess impacts and plan responses.
Steel and Aluminum Sector Pressure: The steel industry and labor unions have pushed for retaliatory tariffs to match U.S. duties, but Carney delayed these to prioritize negotiations.
Energy and Commodities: Carney has explored retaliatory tariffs on oil and potash exports, coordinating with energy producers to leverage Canada’s role as a key U.S. supplier.
Infrastructure Investment: By fast-tracking projects like pipelines, mines, and power grids, Carney aims to support industries like energy and mining, though these efforts have sparked legal challenges from Indigenous groups.
Business Leader Consultations: Carney announced plans to meet with business leaders to coordinate a response to Trump’s car tariffs, ensuring industry input in retaliatory measures.
Carney’s engagement with industries emphasizes dialogue and long-term economic diversification, although some sectors, such as steel, remain frustrated by delayed retaliation.
Canada, France, and UK’s Independent Stance on Palestine
Canada, France, and the UK have taken independent stances on Palestinian statehood, diverging from the U.S. position, with implications for transatlantic relations:
Canada’s Position: Carney’s government backed Palestinian statehood, prompting Trump to claim it complicates trade talks. This stance aligns with Canada’s historical support for a two-state solution but marks a bolder divergence from U.S. policy under Trump, who, alongside Israel, rejected Carney’s comments.
France and UK: Both countries have also expressed support for Palestinian statehood, with France advocating for it in UN discussions, and the UK under Keir Starmer emphasizing a pragmatic approach to Middle East peace.
These independent stances symbolize a fracturing of Western unity, with America’s closest allies asserting autonomy in foreign policy. It reflects frustration with Trump’s unilateralism, including his tariff policies and rejection of multilateral frameworks like the WTO.
Why America’s Closest Allies Are Breaking Away
America’s allies, including Canada, France, and the UK, are distancing themselves due to:
Trump’s Unilateralism: His tariff threats, disregard for WTO rules, and demands for trade rebalancing alienate allies who value multilateral cooperation.
Policy Divergence: Trump’s rejection of Palestinian statehood, climate agreements, and global trade norms clashes with allies’ progressive stances, prompting independent actions.
Economic Self-Interest: Tariffs threaten allies’ economies, forcing them to diversify trade (e.g., Canada’s EU arms deal) and retaliate to protect industries.
This “breaking away” reflects a pragmatic recalibration, with allies hedging against U.S. unpredictability while asserting sovereignty.
Symbolism of the Break
The divergence symbolizes:
End of U.S. Hegemony: Allies’ willingness to challenge Washington signals a decline in U.S. global influence, accelerated by Trump’s isolationist policies.
Multipolar World: Independent stances on Palestine and trade reflect a shift toward a world where multiple powers shape global norms, reducing U.S. dominance.
Fractured Western Alliance: The rift undermines the post-WWII Western bloc, weakening collective responses to challenges like China’s rise or Middle East instability.
How the Tariff War Is Likely to Play Out
The tariff war’s trajectory depends on negotiations, domestic pressures, and global responses, with impacts across multiple stakeholders:
For U.S. Consumers: Higher prices and supply chain disruptions could significantly increase costs, particularly for goods like cars, steel, and energy.
For Canadian Producers: Export losses, particularly in sectors like automotive, metals, and energy, are expected, though retaliatory tariffs on oil and potash could provide leverage.
For U.S. Courts: Legal challenges are likely, though the executive trade powers are generally upheld, meaning tariffs are likely to persist unless Congress intervenes.
For Trump’s World Standing: The tariff rhetoric risks isolating the U.S. and diminishing its global soft power. However, it bolsters Trump’s image among his base.
Likely Outcome of the Tariff War
Short-Term Escalation: Without a deal by August 1, 2025, Trump is likely to impose the 35% tariff, prompting Canada to retaliate, disrupting North American trade, particularly in autos and energy.
Partial Deal Possible: U.S. businesses reliant on Canadian goods may pressure Trump to exempt USMCA-compliant products.
Economic Pain: Both countries face economic strain, with Canada’s economy more vulnerable due to U.S. trade dependence.
Long-Term Divergence: Canada’s diversification efforts and the growing autonomy of allies will weaken U.S.-centric trade, further disrupting North American integration.
In conclusion, Canada’s response under Carney blends negotiation, concessions, and retaliatory preparations. This pragmatic approach, coordinated with provincial premiers and industries, highlights a shift away from U.S.-centric trade and a recalibration of international relations.
ट्रम्प के टैरिफ धमकियों के प्रति कनाडा की प्रतिक्रिया
कनाडा ने अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रम्प की टैरिफ धमकियों का जवाब कूटनीतिक वार्ताओं, रणनीतिक रियायतों और प्रतिशोधात्मक उपायों की तैयारी के मिश्रण से दिया है। ट्रम्प की टैरिफ धमकियों में 1 अगस्त, 2025 से कनाडाई वस्तुओं पर 35% टैरिफ लगाने का प्रस्ताव है, साथ ही मौजूदा 50% टैरिफ स्टील और एल्युमिनियम पर और 25% टैरिफ ऑटोमोबाइल्स पर हैं। इसके जवाब में, कनाडा, प्रधानमंत्री मार्क कार्नी के नेतृत्व में, ने:
गंभीर वार्ता की है: कनाडा ने अमेरिका के साथ व्यापार और सुरक्षा समझौतों को अद्यतन करने की वार्ता की है, ताकि या तो टैरिफ से बचा जा सके या उनके प्रभाव को कम किया जा सके। कार्नी ने पहले 21 जुलाई तक एक सौदा करने की समयसीमा तय की थी, जिसे ट्रम्प के पत्र के बाद 1 अगस्त तक बढ़ा दिया गया। वार्ताएं पेशेवर बताई गई हैं, लेकिन ट्रम्प की अप्रत्याशितता के कारण चुनौतीपूर्ण रही हैं।
रियायतें दी हैं: कनाडा ने जून 2025 में तकनीकी कंपनियों पर डिजिटल सर्विसेज टैक्स (DST) को रद्द कर दिया था, जब ट्रम्प ने वार्ता समाप्त करने की धमकी दी थी। यह कदम वार्ताओं को जीवित रखने के लिए कनाडा की रियायतों को दिखाता है।
प्रतिशोधात्मक उपायों की तैयारी की है: कनाडा ने C$155 बिलियन का एक पैकेज तैयार किया है, जिसमें टैरिफ को अमेरिका की कार्रवाइयों के आधार पर लागू किया जाएगा। कार्नी ने कनाडाई श्रमिकों और कंपनियों की रक्षा पर जोर दिया है, जिसमें तेल, पोटाश और अन्य वस्तुओं पर संभावित उत्पाद शुल्क शामिल हैं।
व्यापार विविधीकरण और घरेलू अर्थव्यवस्था को मजबूत किया है: कार्नी ने अमेरिका पर निर्भरता को कम करने के लिए अन्य देशों के साथ व्यापार बढ़ाने पर जोर दिया है। इसमें यूरोपीय संघ के साथ एक हथियार सौदा करना और घरेलू विकास को बढ़ावा देने के लिए पाइपलाइनों और परमाणु संयंत्रों जैसे बुनियादी ढांचा परियोजनाओं को तेज़ी से लागू करना शामिल है।
तत्काल प्रतिशोध को टाला है: उद्योगों और ओंटारियो के प्रीमियर डग फोर्ड के दबाव के बावजूद, कनाडा ने अमेरिका से वार्ता की समयसीमा बढ़ाए जाने के बाद 25% से 50% तक अमेरिकी स्टील और एल्युमिनियम पर टैरिफ को दोगुना करने की योजना को रोक दिया।
मार्क कार्नी की रणनीति और अंतर
मार्क कार्नी, जो कनाडा और ब्रिटेन के पूर्व बैंकर और केंद्रीय बैंकर रहे हैं, ने मार्च 2025 में पदभार संभाला और अप्रैल में एक जनरल चुनाव में ट्रम्प के खिलाफ एक मजबूत रुख के साथ जीत हासिल की, यह वादा करते हुए कि वह अमेरिकी संरक्षणवाद के खिलाफ एक दृढ़ रुख अपनाएंगे। उनकी रणनीति उनके पूर्ववर्ती, जस्टिन ट्रूडो से कई तरह से अलग है:
पेशेवर और कूटनीतिक स्वर: ट्रूडो के ट्रम्प के साथ विवादास्पद संबंधों के विपरीत, कार्नी ने एक गर्म, अधिक सौहार्दपूर्ण माहौल को बढ़ावा दिया है। ट्रम्प ने कार्नी को “शानदार आदमी” कहा है। इस बदलाव ने औपचारिक वार्ताओं को बनाए रखने में मदद की है और अधिकारियों के बीच बार-बार संवाद स्थापित किया है।
रणनीतिक रियायतें: कार्नी ने एक व्यावहारिक दृष्टिकोण अपनाया है, जैसे DST को रद्द करने की रियायत देने के बावजूद, जिससे कुछ आलोचकों का कहना है कि यह उनकी चुनावी वादे के मुकाबले कमजोरी दिखाता है।
आर्थिक विविधीकरण: कार्नी ने व्यापार विविधीकरण और बुनियादी ढांचे में निवेश पर ध्यान केंद्रित किया है, जो ट्रूडो के अमेरिकी-कनाडा व्यापार एकीकरण की स्थिति को बनाए रखने के दृष्टिकोण से भिन्न है।
वास्तविक दृष्टिकोण: पहले टैरिफ से बचने के लिए आशान्वित, कार्नी ने हाल ही में यह स्वीकार किया है कि कोई भी देश ट्रम्प से मुक्त टैरिफ सौदा प्राप्त करने की उम्मीद नहीं कर सकता, और यह संकेत दिया कि अब उन्हें आर्थिक प्रभावों को प्रबंधित करने की बजाय किसी अपवाद पर निर्भर रहने की बजाय इस पर ध्यान केंद्रित करना होगा।
राजनीतिक नवागंतुक और वित्तीय विशेषज्ञ: कार्नी की वित्तीय पृष्ठभूमि उन्हें आर्थिक वार्ताओं में विश्वसनीयता देती है, लेकिन उनकी राजनीतिक अनुभवहीनता के कारण आलोचकों ने, जैसे कि कंजरवेटिव नेता पियरे पोलीवरे, उन पर बहुत ज्यादा रियायत देने का आरोप लगाया है।
कार्नी की रणनीति आक्रामकता और व्यावहारिकता के बीच संतुलन बनाए रखने की है, जिसका उद्देश्य कनाडाई हितों की रक्षा करना है, जबकि ट्रम्प की अप्रत्याशित रणनीतियों के साथ तालमेल बैठाना है। यह ट्रूडो की आक्रामक रणनीति से अलग है, जो अक्सर तनाव बढ़ाने का कारण बनी थी।
कनाडाई प्रीमियरों के साथ समन्वय
कार्नी ने कनाडा के 13 प्रांतीय और क्षेत्रीय प्रीमियरों के साथ सक्रिय रूप से समन्वय किया है ताकि ट्रम्प के टैरिफ के खिलाफ एकजुट मोर्चा प्रस्तुत किया जा सके, हालांकि मतभेद बने हुए हैं:
आपात बैठकें: कार्नी ने 21 जुलाई, 2025 को प्रीमियरों के साथ एक आपात बैठक बुलाई, ताकि ट्रम्प के टैरिफ धमकियों पर चर्चा की जा सके। एक तीन दिवसीय बैठक के बाद एकजुटता पर जोर दिया गया, लेकिन प्रतिशोध और बुनियादी ढांचे की योजनाओं पर विभाजन उभरे।
यूनाइटेड टीम कनाडा दृष्टिकोण: ओंटारियो के प्रीमियर डग फोर्ड, जो एक प्रमुख सहयोगी हैं, ने “यूनाइटेड टीम कनाडा दृष्टिकोण” पर जोर दिया, हालांकि ट्रम्प की अप्रत्याशितता से निराश थे। फोर्ड ने प्रतिशोधात्मक टैरिफ का समर्थन किया, लेकिन कार्नी की रणनीति के साथ तालमेल बैठाने पर सहमति जताई।
विभिन्न दृष्टिकोण: ब्रिटिश कोलंबिया के प्रीमियर डेविड एबी ने अमेरिकी राजदूत पीट होक्स्ट्रा के बयान की आलोचना की, कनाडाई संप्रभुता को मजबूत करते हुए। क्यूबेक के फ्रांकोइस लेगो ने ट्रम्प से सौदा करने के बारे में संदेह व्यक्त किया, जबकि फोर्ड ने आक्रामक प्रतिशोध का समर्थन किया।
बुनियादी ढांचे पर मतभेद: कार्नी की पाइपलाइनों जैसे परियोजनाओं को तेज़ी से लागू करने की योजना का आदिवासी समूहों और पर्यावरणविदों द्वारा विरोध किया गया। इसके अलावा, कुछ प्रीमियरों ने इन परियोजनाओं को व्यापार प्रतिशोध से पहले प्राथमिकता देने पर असहमति जताई।
इन तनावों के बावजूद, कार्नी के नेतृत्व में एकजुटता बनी रही है, और प्रीमियरों ने कनाडाई आर्थिक हितों की रक्षा के लिए मिलकर काम किया है।
कनाडाई उद्योगों के साथ समन्वय
कार्नी की सरकार ने विभिन्न उद्योगों के साथ मिलकर टैरिफ के प्रभाव को कम करने और आर्थिक लचीलापन बढ़ाने के लिए समन्वय किया है:
ऑटो उद्योग पर ध्यान: उत्तर अमेरिकी ऑटो सेक्टर, जो ट्रम्प के टैरिफ के प्रति संवेदनशील है, कार्नी की प्राथमिकता रही है। उन्होंने उद्योग नेताओं के साथ मिलकर प्रभाव का आकलन किया और प्रतिक्रियाओं की योजना बनाई।
स्टील और एल्युमिनियम क्षेत्र का दबाव: स्टील उद्योग और श्रमिक संघों ने प्रतिशोधात्मक टैरिफ की मांग की है, लेकिन कार्नी ने इन्हें टाल दिया ताकि वार्ता प्राथमिकता पर रहे।
ऊर्जा और वस्त्रों पर ध्यान: कार्नी ने तेल और पोटाश निर्यात पर प्रतिशोधात्मक टैरिफ के बारे में विचार किया है, ऊर्जा उत्पादकों के साथ समन्वय किया है ताकि कनाडा की भूमिका का फायदा उठाया जा सके।
बुनियादी ढांचा निवेश: पाइपलाइनों, खदानों और पावर ग्रिड जैसी परियोजनाओं को तेज़ी से लागू करके, कार्नी ऊर्जा और खनन जैसे उद्योगों का समर्थन करने का प्रयास कर रहे हैं, हालांकि इन परियोजनाओं पर आदिवासी समूहों से कानूनी चुनौतियाँ आई हैं।
व्यापार नेताओं के साथ परामर्श: कार्नी ने व्यापार नेताओं से मिलने की योजना बनाई है, ताकि ट्रम्प के कार टैरिफ पर प्रतिक्रिया समन्वयित की जा सके, और उद्योगों के विचारों को प्रतिशोधात्मक उपायों में शामिल किया जा सके।
कार्नी का उद्योगों के साथ समन्वय संवाद और दीर्घकालिक आर्थिक विविधीकरण पर जोर देता है, हालांकि कुछ क्षेत्रों, जैसे कि स्टील, देरी से प्रतिशोध पर निराश हैं।
कनाडा, फ्रांस और यूके की स्वतंत्र स्थिति फिलिस्तीन पर
कनाडा, फ्रांस और यूके ने फिलिस्तीनी राज्य की स्थिति पर स्वतंत्र दृष्टिकोण अपनाया है, जो अमेरिकी स्थिति से भिन्न है, और इसका प्रभाव ट्रांसअटलांटिक संबंधों पर पड़ा है:
कनाडा की स्थिति: कार्नी सरकार ने फिलिस्तीनी राज्य की स्थिति का समर्थन किया, जिससे ट्रम्प ने दावा किया कि यह व्यापार वार्ता को जटिल बनाता है। यह स्थिति कनाडा की ऐतिहासिक दो-राज्य समाधान के समर्थन से मेल खाती है, लेकिन यह ट्रम्प की नीति से और इज़राइल के साथ उनके गठबंधन से अधिक विद्रोही है।
फ्रांस और यूके: दोनों देशों ने फिलिस्तीनी राज्य की स्थिति का समर्थन किया है, फ्रांस ने इसे संयुक्त राष्ट्र में उठाया है और यूके के कीर स्टार्मर ने मध्य पूर्व शांति के लिए व्यावहारिक दृष्टिकोण पर जोर दिया है।
इन स्वतंत्र दृष्टिकोणों से पश्चिमी एकता में दरार दिखती है, क्योंकि अमेरिका के करीबी सहयोगी अब विदेशी नीति में स्वायत्तता की पुष्टि कर रहे हैं। यह ट्रम्प के एकपक्षीयता के खिलाफ बढ़ती असंतोष को दर्शाता है, जिसमें उनके टैरिफ नीतियों और अस्वीकृति जैसे बहुपक्षीय ढांचों की अस्वीकृति भी शामिल है।
क्यों अमेरिका के करीबी सहयोगी दूर हो रहे हैं
अमेरिका के सहयोगी, जिनमें कनाडा, फ्रांस और यूके शामिल हैं, ट्रम्प की एकतरफा नीतियों और भिन्न दृष्टिकोणों के कारण खुद को अलग कर रहे हैं:
ट्रम्प की एकतरफा नीति: उनके टैरिफ धमकियों, WTO नियमों की अनदेखी, और व्यापार पुनर्संतुलन की मांगों ने सहयोगियों को बहुपक्षीय सहयोग की महत्ता से अलग कर दिया है।
नीति मतभेद: ट्रम्प की फिलिस्तीनी राज्य की अस्वीकृति, जलवायु समझौतों, और वैश्विक व्यापार मानदंडों की अस्वीकृति सहयोगियों के प्रगतिशील दृष्टिकोणों से टकराती है, जिसके कारण स्वतंत्र कदम उठाए गए हैं।
आर्थिक स्वार्थ: टैरिफ सहयोगियों की अर्थव्यवस्थाओं को खतरे में डालते हैं, जिससे उन्हें व्यापार विविधीकरण (जैसे कनाडा का EU के साथ हथियार सौदा) और उद्योगों की रक्षा के लिए प्रतिशोधी कदम उठाने पर मजबूर किया गया है।
यह "दूर जाना" एक व्यावहारिक पुनःसमायोजन को दर्शाता है, जिसमें सहयोगी अब ट्रम्प की अनिश्चितता के खिलाफ सुरक्षात्मक रुख अपनाते हुए स्वायत्तता का दावा कर रहे हैं।
विघटन का प्रतीक
विघटन प्रतीक है:
अमेरिका की प्रभावशीलता का अंत: सहयोगियों की वाशिंगटन को चुनौती देने की इच्छा अमेरिकी वैश्विक प्रभाव में कमी का संकेत है, जो ट्रम्प की अलगाववादी नीतियों द्वारा तेज हो रहा है।
बहु-ध्रुवीय दुनिया: फिलिस्तीन और व्यापार पर स्वतंत्र दृष्टिकोण एक ऐसी दुनिया की ओर बढ़ने का संकेत देते हैं, जहां वैश्विक मानदंडों को कई शक्तियां आकार देती हैं, जिससे अमेरिकी प्रभुत्व कम हो रहा है।
पश्चिमी गठबंधन में दरार: यह दरार द्वितीय विश्व युद्ध के बाद के पश्चिमी गुट को कमजोर करती है, जिससे चीन और रूस जैसे विरोधियों को बल मिलता है और उत्तरदायित्व में बदलाव होता है।
टैरिफ युद्ध कैसे बढ़ सकता है
टैरिफ युद्ध की दिशा वार्ताओं, घरेलू दबावों और वैश्विक प्रतिक्रियाओं पर निर्भर करेगी, और इसके प्रभाव कई हितधारकों पर होंगे:
अमेरिकी उपभोक्ताओं के लिए: टैरिफ उपभोक्ताओं पर कर की तरह होते हैं, जिससे कनाडाई वस्त्रों जैसे कारों, स्टील और ऊर्जा की कीमतों में वृद्धि होगी। 35% टैरिफ से कीमतों में महत्वपूर्ण वृद्धि हो सकती है, क्योंकि कनाडा अमेरिकी निर्यात का सबसे बड़ा बाजार है ($349.4 बिलियन 2024 में)।
कनाडाई उत्पादकों के लिए: कनाडा अपनी वस्तुओं का 75% अमेरिका को निर्यात करता है, जिससे जैसे ऑटोमोबाइल, धातुएं और ऊर्जा जैसे क्षेत्रों में गंभीर नुकसान हो सकते हैं।
अमेरिकी अदालतों के लिए: अमेरिकी व्यापारों और व्यापार समूहों द्वारा टैरिफ को रोकने के लिए मुकदमे दायर किए जा सकते हैं, यह दावा करते हुए कि ये USMCA का उल्लंघन करते हैं या राष्ट्रपति के अधिकार से अधिक हैं।
ट्रम्प की वैश्विक स्थिति के लिए: टैरिफ और बयानबाजी से सहयोगियों को अलग कर दिया है, जिससे अमेरिकी सॉफ़्ट पावर में गिरावट आई है। हालांकि, यह ट्रम्प की छवि को उनके समर्थकों में मजबूत करता है।
टैरिफ युद्ध का संभावित परिणाम
संक्षिप्त काल में वृद्धि: यदि 1 अगस्त 2025 तक कोई सौदा नहीं होता है, तो ट्रम्प 35% टैरिफ लगा सकते हैं, जिसके बाद कनाडा प्रतिशोधात्मक कदम उठा सकता है, जिससे उत्तरी अमेरिकी व्यापार में रुकावट आ सकती है, विशेष रूप से ऑटोमोबाइल और ऊर्जा क्षेत्रों में।
आंशिक सौदा संभव: अमेरिकी व्यापारों के दबाव में, जो कनाडाई वस्तुओं पर निर्भर हैं, ट्रम्प USMCA-अनुरूप उत्पादों को अपवाद देने के लिए मजबूर हो सकते हैं।
आर्थिक कठिनाई: दोनों देशों को आर्थिक दबाव का सामना करना होगा, जिसमें कनाडा की जीडीपी अमेरिकी व्यापार पर निर्भरता के कारण अधिक संवेदनशील है।
दीर्घकालिक विविधीकरण: कनाडा की विविधीकरण प्रयासों और सहयोगियों की बढ़ती स्वतंत्रता अमेरिका-केंद्रित व्यापार से दूर हो जाएगी, जिससे उत्तरी अमेरिकी एकीकरण कमजोर होगा।
अंत में, कनाडा का जवाब कार्नी के तहत कूटनीति, रियायतें, और प्रतिशोध की तैयारी को मिश्रित करता है। यह व्यावहारिक दृष्टिकोण, प्रांतीय प्रीमियरों और उद्योगों के साथ समन्वय, अमेरिकी-केन्द्रित व्यापार से दूर जाने और अंतरराष्ट्रीय संबंधों में एक व्यापक पुनःसंगठन का संकेत देता है।
