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Showing posts with label Global economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Global economy. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 09, 2025

Rethinking Trade: Why the Dollar, the WTO, and Trump’s Policies Broke U.S. Manufacturing—and How a G30 Can Rebuild It

 

Rethinking Trade: Why the Dollar, the WTO, and Trump’s Policies Broke U.S. Manufacturing—and How a G30 Can Rebuild It


What really damaged U.S. manufacturing?

It wasn’t just globalization. It wasn’t just China. It wasn’t just automation or NAFTA. One of the most under-discussed culprits lies at the heart of the global financial system: the special status of the U.S. dollar.

The Dollar’s Double-Edged Sword

In 1944, at the Bretton Woods Conference, John Maynard Keynes warned against making the U.S. dollar the central reserve currency of the world. He proposed a different vision—a supranational currency called the bancor. But the United States, riding high on its World War II victory and emerging as the world’s dominant industrial power, insisted otherwise.

Keynes saw the trap. A global system built around one national currency would create imbalances that were structurally baked in. The dollar would always be in demand, and the U.S. would have to run massive trade deficits to supply the world with liquidity. That’s exactly what happened. Over decades, this system flooded the U.S. with cheap imports, hollowed out its manufacturing base, and allowed multinational corporations to offshore labor and dodge taxes—while the American working class paid the price.

WTO: Built to Stabilize, Smashed to Pieces

If the dollar system was the invisible lever, the World Trade Organization (WTO) was the visible referee. It brought rules, dispute mechanisms, and multilateral consensus to global commerce.

But in recent years—especially under the Trump administration—the WTO was deliberately sidelined. The United States refused to approve new judges to the Appellate Body, essentially paralyzing the organization’s ability to enforce its own rules. Meanwhile, Trump pivoted to one-on-one, high-pressure trade negotiations and blanket tariffs.

The outcome? A fragmented global trade system, where uncertainty and retaliation replaced predictability and cooperation. Trump’s tariffs may have had short-term appeal, but as economists like Paul Krugman pointed out, they did little to change the trade balance and much to hurt farmers, exporters, and global trust in the U.S.

A New Global Trade Paradigm: G30, Not G7 or BRICS

What’s needed now is a new global architecture, one where no single country dominates and no bloc calls the shots. The idea that the world should be ruled by either the G7 or the BRICS is outdated.

The future lies in a G30—an inclusive new organization of the 30 largest economies by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). This new body would bring together the Global North and South, rich and emerging economies, and establish a fresh, inclusive framework for global trade. No more one-sided rules. No more weaponized tariffs. Just a multilateral approach that recognizes mutual interests.

๐Ÿ“˜ Read more about this idea:
G7 + BRICS = G30: A Bold Vision for Global Cooperation in the 21st Century


Labor Is Trade Too: Immigration and the Human Supply Chain

We talk endlessly about trade in goods and services, but there’s another kind of trade we ignore at our peril: labor mobility. The Trump administration's crackdown on immigration has global implications—not just human rights, but trade itself.

There is a global labor market. Just as iPhones are made in China, strawberries are picked by migrants in California. Labor crosses borders—legally or not—because capital demands it. And yet we lack a global framework for this flow.

When undocumented workers are rounded up, families torn apart, and entire communities destabilized, we’re not just enacting cruelty—we’re disrupting the global economy. If labor is part of trade, then we need rules to ensure dignity, documentation, and fairness, not mass deportation and fear.

For a powerful fictional exploration of this crisis, see:


What the U.S. Could Be Doing Instead

Despite all the noise, the United States still leads in services, technology, energy, and finance. As explored in the blog post “The Top Prize: Why the U.S. Economy Still Leads the World,” America’s true trade strength lies in value-added exports: software, patents, Hollywood, Wall Street, higher education.

Yet Trump’s trade war fixates on goods. On deficits. On raw numbers that don’t capture the bigger picture. Yes, the U.S. runs a large goods deficit—but it also has a massive services surplus. Taking all trade together—goods, services, foreign direct investment, and corporate revenues parked abroad—might actually reveal a hidden surplus, or at least a far smaller net deficit than advertised.

But focusing on numbers alone is still missing the point. We need a global framework for all aspects of trade, not bilateral brawls that destabilize economies.


Toward a Just and Thriving Trade System

If we want to restore manufacturing in the U.S., protect labor rights globally, and usher in a sustainable trade system that doesn’t crush the planet or working people, we need a radical rethink of trade itself.

These books offer starting points for that conversation:

๐Ÿ“˜ Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
๐Ÿ“˜ The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
๐Ÿ“˜ Trump’s Trade War
๐Ÿ“˜ The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism

These books look not just at the U.S., but at how emerging alliances like India–U.S., and even new philosophies like Kalkiism, can guide trade and economic cooperation in a fairer direction.


Conclusion: The Next Bretton Woods

In 1944, we chose the dollar. We chose U.S. hegemony. But Keynes was right—it came at a cost. Now, in the 21st century, that system is fraying.

It’s time for a second Bretton Woods, not to entrench another hegemon, but to build a shared global future. G30, not G7. Multilateralism, not tariffs. Rules with dignity, not detention camps. A manufacturing revival built not on nostalgia, but on smart policy, shared responsibility, and global justice.

Let’s start the conversation.


✍️ Read. Share. Organize. The global trade future we want won’t build itself.




เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เค•ा เคชुเคจเคฐ्เคตिเคšाเคฐ: เค•िเคธเคจे เคคोเคก़ा เค…เคฎेเคฐिเค•ा เค•ा เคตिเคจिเคฐ्เคฎाเคฃ เค†เคงाเคฐ, เค”เคฐ G30 เคนी เคธเคฎाเคงाเคจ เค•्เคฏों เคนै


เค…เคฎेเคฐिเค•ी เคตिเคจिเคฐ्เคฎाเคฃ เค•ो เค…เคธเคฒी เคจुเค•เคธाเคจ เค•िเคธเคจे เคชเคนुँเคšाเคฏा?

เคธिเคฐ्เคซ เคตैเคถ्เคตीเค•เคฐเคฃ เคจเคนीं। เคธिเคฐ्เคซ เคšीเคจ เคจเคนीं। เคจ เคนी เค•ेเคตเคฒ เคธ्เคตเคšाเคฒเคจ เคฏा NAFTA। เค‡เคธ เคชूเคฐी เค•เคนाเคจी เค•ा เคเค• เคเคธा เคนिเคธ्เคธा เคนै เคœिเคธ เคชเคฐ เคฌเคนुเคค เค•เคฎ เคฌाเคค เคนोเคคी เคนै—เค…เคฎेเคฐिเค•ी เคกॉเคฒเคฐ เค•ी เคตिเคถेเคท เคธ्เคฅिเคคि, เคœिเคธे เคœॉเคจ เคฎेเคจाเคฐ्เคก เค•ीเคจ्เคธ เคจे 1944 เคฎें เคนी เค–เคคเคฐเคจाเค• เคฌเคคाเคฏा เคฅा।

เคกॉเคฒเคฐ: เคตเคฐเคฆाเคจ เคฏा เค…เคญिเคถाเคช?

1944 เคฎें เคฌ्เคฐेเคŸเคจ เคตुเคก्เคธ เคธเคฎ्เคฎेเคฒเคจ เคฎें, เค…เคฐ्เคฅเคถाเคธ्เคค्เคฐी เคœॉเคจ เคฎेเคจाเคฐ्เคก เค•ीเคจ्เคธ เคจे เคšेเคคाเคตเคจी เคฆी เคฅी เค•ि เค…เคฎेเคฐिเค•ी เคกॉเคฒเคฐ เค•ो เคตैเคถ्เคตिเค• เคฐिเคœ़เคฐ्เคต เคฎुเคฆ्เคฐा เคฌเคจाเคจा เคเค• เค…เคธंเคคुเคฒिเคค เคตैเคถ्เคตिเค• เคต्เคฏเคตเคธ्เคฅा เค•ी เคจींเคต เคฐเค–ेเค—ा। เค‰เคจ्เคนोंเคจे เค‡เคธเค•े เคฌเคœाเคฏ เคฌैंเค•ॉเคฐ เคจाเคฎเค• เคเค• เคตैเคถ्เคตिเค• เคฎुเคฆ्เคฐा เค•ा เคช्เคฐเคธ्เคคाเคต เคฆिเคฏा เคฅा। เคฒेเค•िเคจ เค…เคฎेเคฐिเค•ा เคจे เค…เคชเคจी เคคाเค•เคค เค•े เคฌเคฒ เคชเคฐ เคกॉเคฒเคฐ เค•ो เค•ेंเคฆ्เคฐ เคฎें เคฐเค–เคตा เคฆिเคฏा।

เค•ीเคจ्เคธ เคจे เคœो เค–เคคเคฐा เคฆेเค–ा เคฅा, เคตเคน เคนเค•ीเค•เคค เคฌเคจ เค—เคฏा। เคกॉเคฒเคฐ เค•ी เคตैเคถ्เคตिเค• เคฎांเค— เค•ो เคชूเคฐा เค•เคฐเคจे เค•े เคฒिเค เค…เคฎेเคฐिเค•ा เค•ो เคฒเค—ाเคคाเคฐ เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เค˜ाเคŸा เคšเคฒाเคจा เคชเคก़ा, เคœिเคธเคธे เค…เคฎेเคฐिเค•ी เคฌाเคœाเคฐों เคฎें เคธเคธ्เคคे เค†เคฏाเคคों เค•ी เคฌाเคข़ เค† เค—เคˆ เค”เคฐ เค˜เคฐेเคฒू เคตिเคจिเคฐ्เคฎाเคฃ เคšเคฐเคฎเคฐा เค—เคฏा

WTO: เคจिเคฏเคฎों เค•ा เคธंเคฐเค•्เคทเค•, เคŸ्เคฐंเคช เคช्เคฐเคถाเคธเคจ เคฆ्เคตाเคฐा เคจเคท्เคŸ

เคกॉเคฒเคฐ เคคो เค…เคฆृเคถ्เคฏ เค•ाเคฐเคฃ เคฅा, เคฒेเค•िเคจ เคตिเคถ्เคต เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เคธंเค—เค เคจ (WTO) เคตเคน เคธंเคธ्เคฅाเค—เคค เคขांเคšा เคฅा เคœो เคตैเคถ्เคตिเค• เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เค•ो เคจिเคฏเคฎों เคธे เคœोเคก़เคคा เคฅा। เคตเคฐ्เคทों เคคเค• เค‡เคธเคจे เคธ्เคฅिเคฐเคคा เค”เคฐ เคธเคนเคฏोเค— เค•ो เคฌเคข़ाเคตा เคฆिเคฏा।

เคฒेเค•िเคจ เคŸ्เคฐंเคช เคช्เคฐเคถाเคธเคจ เคจे WTO เค•ी เคฐीเคข़ เคนी เคคोเคก़ เคฆी। เค‰เคธเคจे เคจ्เคฏाเคฏाเคงिเค•เคฐเคฃ เค•े เคœเคœों เค•ी เคจिเคฏुเค•्เคคि เค•ो เคฐोเค•เค•เคฐ WTO เค•े เคตिเคตाเคฆ เคจिเคตाเคฐเคฃ เคคंเคค्เคฐ เค•ो เคจिเคท्เค•्เคฐिเคฏ เค•เคฐ เคฆिเคฏा। เค‡เคธเค•े เคธ्เคฅाเคจ เคชเคฐ เค…เคฎेเคฐिเค•ा เคจे เคเค•-เคเค• เคฆेเคถों เคธे เคฆเคฌाเคต เคฌเคจाเค•เคฐ เคธौเคฆेเคฌाเคœ़ी เค•เคฐเคจी เคถुเคฐू เค•ी।

เค‡เคธเค•ा เคชเคฐिเคฃाเคฎ? เค…เคธ्เคฅिเคฐ เค”เคฐ เค–ंเคกिเคค เคตैเคถ्เคตिเค• เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เคช्เคฐเคฃाเคฒी, เคœिเคธเคฎें เค…เคจिเคถ्เคšिเคคเคคा เค”เคฐ เคฌเคฆเคฒे เค•ी เคญाเคตเคจा เคฌเคข़ เค—เคˆ। เคŸ्เคฐंเคช เค•े เคŸैเคฐिเคซ़ เค…เคฒ्เคชเค•ाเคฒिเค• เคฆिเค–ाเคตे เคคो เคฌเคจे, เคฒेเค•िเคจ เค…เคฐ्เคฅเคต्เคฏเคตเคธ्เคฅा เค•ो เคจुเค•เคธाเคจ เคนी เคนुเค†, เคœैเคธा เค•ि เค•เคˆ เค…เคฐ्เคฅเคถाเคธ्เคค्เคฐिเคฏों เคจे เค•เคนा เคนै।


เค…เคฌ เค•्เคฏा เค•เคฐเคจा เคšाเคนिเค: G7 เคฏा BRICS เคจเคนीं, G30 เคšाเคนिเค

เค†เคœ เค•ी เคฆुเคจिเคฏा เค•ो เค•िเคธी เคเค• เคฆेเคถ เคฏा เคฌ्เคฒॉเค• เคฆ्เคตाเคฐा เคธंเคšाเคฒिเคค เค•เคฐเคจे เค•ी เคจเคนीं, เคฌเคฒ्เค•ि เคธाเคेเคฆाเคฐी เค†เคงाเคฐिเคค เคตैเคถ्เคตिเค• เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เคธंเคฐเคšเคจा เค•ी เคœ़เคฐूเคฐเคค เคนै।

เคธเคฎाเคงाเคจ เคนै G30—เคฆुเคจिเคฏा เค•ी 30 เคธเคฌเคธे เคฌเคก़ी เค…เคฐ्เคฅเคต्เคฏเคตเคธ्เคฅाเค“ं (PPP เค•े เค†เคงाเคฐ เคชเคฐ) เค•ा เคเค• เคจเคฏा เคฎंเคš। เคฏเคนाँ G7 เค”เคฐ BRICS เคฆोเคจों เคเค• เคธाเคฅ เคนों, เคธाเคฅ เคนी เค…เคซ्เคฐीเค•ा, เคฒैเคŸिเคจ เค…เคฎेเคฐिเค•ा เค”เคฐ เคเคถिเคฏा เค•े เคฌเคก़े เคฆेเคถ เคญी।

เคฏเคน เคจเคฏा เคธंเค—เค เคจ เคธเคฎाเคจ เคญाเค—ीเคฆाเคฐी เคชเคฐ เค†เคงाเคฐिเคค เคตैเคถ्เคตिเค• เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เคจिเคฏเคฎों เค•ा เคจिเคฐ्เคฎाเคฃ เค•เคฐेเค—ा। เค‡เคธเคฎें เค•ोเคˆ เคนाเคตी เคจเคนीं เคนोเค—ा, เค”เคฐ เค•ोเคˆ เคนाเคถिเคฏे เคชเคฐ เคจเคนीं เคฐเคนेเค—ा।

๐Ÿ“˜ เคตिเคธ्เคคाเคฐ เคธे เคชเคข़ें:
G7 + BRICS = G30: เคเค• เคตैเคถ्เคตिเค• เคธเคนเคฏोเค— เค•ी เคจเคˆ เคชเคฐिเค•เคฒ्เคชเคจा


เคฎเคœ़เคฆूเคฐी เคญी เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เคนै: เค…เคช्เคฐเคตाเคธเคจ เคชเคฐ เคเค• เคจเคˆ เคฆृเคท्เคŸि

เคœเคฌ เคนเคฎ เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เค•ी เคฌाเคค เค•เคฐเคคे เคนैं, เคคो เคธाเคฎाเคจ เค”เคฐ เคธेเคตाเค“ं เค•ी เคฌाเคค เค•เคฐเคคे เคนैं। เคฒेเค•िเคจ เคเค• เค”เคฐ เคšीเคœ़ เคนै เคœो เคธीเคฎा เคชाเคฐ เค•เคฐเคคी เคนै: เคฎเคœ़เคฆूเคฐी। เคถ्เคฐเคฎिเค• เคญी เคตैเคถ्เคตिเค• เค†เคชूเคฐ्เคคि เคถ्เคฐृंเค–เคฒा เค•ा เคนिเคธ्เคธा เคนैं।

เคŸ्เคฐंเคช เคช्เคฐเคถाเคธเคจ เค•ी เค…เคช्เคฐเคตाเคธเคจ เคชเคฐ เคธเค–्เคค เคจीเคคि เคธिเคฐ्เคซ เค…เคฎाเคจเคตीเคฏ เคจเคนीं เคนै, เคฌเคฒ्เค•ि เคตैเคถ्เคตिเค• เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เค•ो เคญी เคจुเค•เคธाเคจ เคชเคนुंเคšाเคคी เคนै। เค…เคฎेเคฐिเค•ा เค•ी เค•ृเคทि, เคจिเคฐ्เคฎाเคฃ, เค”เคฐ เคธेเคตा เค…เคฐ्เคฅเคต्เคฏเคตเคธ्เคฅा เคฎें เค†เคช्เคฐเคตाเคธी เคถ्เคฐเคฎिเค•ों เค•ी เคช्เคฐเคฎुเค– เคญूเคฎिเค•ा เคนै।

เค…เค—เคฐ เค‡เคจ्เคนें เคฌिเคจा เคธोเคšे-เคธเคฎเคे เค‰เค ाเค•เคฐ เคฌाเคนเคฐ เค•िเคฏा เคœाเคเค—ा, เคคो เค†เคฐ्เคฅिเค• เค”เคฐ เคฎाเคจเคตीเคฏ เคธंเค•เคŸ เคฆोเคจों เคชैเคฆा เคนोंเค—े। เค‡เคธเคฒिเค เคตैเคถ्เคตिเค• เคฎเคœ़เคฆूเคฐी เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เค•े เคฒिเค เคญी เคจिเคฏเคฎ เค”เคฐ เค—เคฐिเคฎा เค•ी เคœ़เคฐूเคฐเคค เคนै।

เค‡เคธ เคตिเคทเคฏ เค•ो เคฒेเค•เคฐ เค•ुเค› เค•िเคคाเคฌें เคœ़เคฐूเคฐ เคชเคข़ें:


เค…เคฎेเคฐिเค•ा เค•्เคฏा เค•เคฐ เคธเค•เคคा เคนै?

เคธेเคตाเค“ं, เคŸेเค•्เคจोเคฒॉเคœी, เคŠเคฐ्เคœा เค”เคฐ เคตिเคค्เคคीเคฏ เค•्เคทेเคค्เคฐों เคฎें เค…เคฎेเคฐिเค•ा เค…เคฌ เคญी เคฆुเคจिเคฏा เคฎें เคธเคฌเคธे เค†เค—े เคนै। เคœैเคธा เค•ि เค‡เคธ เคฌ्เคฒॉเค— เคชोเคธ्เคŸ เคฎें เคฌเคคाเคฏा เค—เคฏा เคนै —
The Top Prize: Why the U.S. Economy Still Leads the World
—เค…เคฎेเคฐिเค•ा เค•ी เค…เคธเคฒी เคคाเค•เคค เคฎूเคฒ्เคฏ เคตเคฐ्เคงिเคค เคจिเคฐ्เคฏाเคค เคนै: เคธॉเคซ्เคŸเคตेเคฏเคฐ, เคนॉเคฒीเคตुเคก, เคถिเค•्เคทा, เค”เคฐ เคตिเคค्เคคीเคฏ เคธेเคตाเคं।

เคซिเคฐ เคญी เคŸ्เคฐंเคช เคช्เคฐเคถाเคธเคจ เคธिเคฐ्เคซ เคฎाเคฒ เค•े เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เค˜ाเคŸे เค•ी เคฌाเคค เค•เคฐเคคा เคนै। เคœเคฌเค•ि เคธเคš्เคšाเคˆ เคฏเคน เคนै เค•ि เค…เคฎेเคฐिเค•ा เค•ा เคธेเคตा เค•्เคทेเคค्เคฐ เคฎें เคฌเคก़ा เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เค…เคงिเคถेเคท เคนै। เค…เค—เคฐ เคนเคฎ เคธाเคฎाเคจ, เคธेเคตाเคं, เคช्เคฐเคค्เคฏเค•्เคท เคตिเคฆेเคถी เคจिเคตेเคถ เค”เคฐ เคฌौเคฆ्เคงिเค• เคธंเคชเคฆा เค•ो เคเค• เคธाเคฅ เคœोเคก़ें, เคคो เคถाเคฏเคฆ เค…เคฎेเคฐिเค•ा เค˜ाเคŸे เคฎें เคจเคนीं เคฌเคฒ्เค•ि เคฒाเคญ เคฎें เคญी เคนो เคธเค•เคคा เคนै।

เคฒेเค•िเคจ เค‡เคธเค•ा เคนเคฒ เคธिเคฐ्เคซ เคธंเค–्เคฏाเค“ं เคฎें เคจเคนीं เคนै। เคเค• เคจเคˆ เคตैเคถ्เคตिเค• เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เคธंเคฐเคšเคจा เคฎें เคนै, เคœो เคธเคญी เค•ो เคธाเคฅ เคฒेเค•เคฐ เคšเคฒे।


เคจ्เคฏाเคฏเคชूเคฐ्เคฃ เค”เคฐ เคธเคฎृเคฆ्เคง เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เคช्เคฐเคฃाเคฒी เค•ी เค“เคฐ

เค…เค—เคฐ เคนเคฎ เค…เคฎेเคฐिเค•ा เคฎें เคตिเคจिเคฐ्เคฎाเคฃ เค•ो เคซिเคฐ เคธे เคœीเคตिเคค เค•เคฐเคจा เคšाเคนเคคे เคนैं, เคตैเคถ्เคตिเค• เคฎเคœ़เคฆूเคฐी เค•ो เค—เคฐिเคฎा เคฆेเคจा เคšाเคนเคคे เคนैं, เค”เคฐ เคเค• เคŸिเค•ाเคŠ เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เคต्เคฏเคตเคธ्เคฅा เคšाเคนเคคे เคนैं, เคคो เคนเคฎें เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เค•ी เคฎूเคฒ เคชเคฐिเคญाเคทा เค•ो เคชुเคจः เค—เคข़เคจा เคนोเค—ा

เคฏเคน เค•िเคคाเคฌें เค‰เคธ เคšเคฐ्เคšा เค•ो เคถुเคฐू เค•เคฐเคจे เค•े เคฒिเค เค‰เคชเคฏोเค—ी เคนोंเค—ी:

๐Ÿ“˜ Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
๐Ÿ“˜ The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
๐Ÿ“˜ Trump’s Trade War
๐Ÿ“˜ The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism


เคจिเคท्เค•เคฐ्เคท: เค…เค—เคฒी เคฌ्เคฐेเคŸเคจ เคตुเคก्เคธ เคฌैเค เค• เค•ी เคœ़เคฐूเคฐเคค

1944 เคฎें เคนเคฎเคจे เคกॉเคฒเคฐ เค•ो เคšुเคจा। เค…เคฌ เค‰เคธเค•ी เค•ीเคฎเคค เคšुเค•ा เคฐเคนे เคนैं।

เค†เคœ เคœ़เคฐूเคฐเคค เคนै เคเค• เคจเคˆ เคฌ्เคฐेเคŸเคจ เคตुเคก्เคธ เคœैเคธी เคฌैเค เค• เค•ी—เคœเคนाँ เค•ोเคˆ เคเค• เคฆेเคถ เคจเคนीं, เคฌเคฒ्เค•ि เคฆुเคจिเคฏा เค•े เคธเคญी เคช्เคฐเคฎुเค– เคฆेเคถ เคเค• เคจ्เคฏाเคฏเคชूเคฐ्เคฃ, เคธเคฎाเคตेเคถी, เค”เคฐ เคธ्เคฅाเคฏी เคตैเคถ्เคตिเค• เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เคต्เคฏเคตเคธ्เคฅा เคฌเคจाเคं।

G30 เคตเคน เคญเคตिเคท्เคฏ เคนै। เคฌเคนुเคชเค•्เคทीเคฏเคคा เคนी เคฐाเคธ्เคคा เคนै। เคฎाเคจเคต เค—เคฐिเคฎा เค•े เคธाเคฅ เคถ्เคฐเคฎ เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เค•ी เค†เคตเคถ्เคฏเค•เคคा เคนै। เค”เคฐ เค…เคฎेเคฐिเค•ी เคตिเคจिเคฐ्เคฎाเคฃ เค•ो เคตाเคชเคธ เคฒाเคจे เค•ा เคคเคฐीเค•ा เคธ्เคฎाเคฐ्เคŸ เคจीเคคि เค”เคฐ เคธाเคेเคฆाเคฐी เคนै, เคจ เค•ि เคชुเคฐाเคจी เคธोเคš เค”เคฐ เคœ़เคฌเคฐเคฆเคธ्เคคी।

เค†เค‡เค, เค‡เคธ เคฌाเคคเคšीเคค เค•ी เคถुเคฐुเค†เคค เค•เคฐें।

✍️ เคชเคข़ें, เคธाเคा เค•เคฐें, เค”เคฐ เคธंเค—เค िเคค เคนों। เคœिเคธ เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เคช्เคฐเคฃाเคฒी เค•ी เคฆुเคจिเคฏा เค•ो เคœ़เคฐूเคฐเคค เคนै, เคตเคน เค–ुเคฆ เคจเคนीं เคฌเคจेเค—ी।





Friday, May 31, 2019

The Possible Outline Of A Deal Between Xi And Trump In June

Will The Trade War Force A New Equilibrium?

  • Both parties agree to roll back all tariffs immediately. 
  • The US ends its harassment of Huawei, although it could choose to not use Huawei equipment for its 5G efforts. China lays to rest its rare earth minerals threats. 
  • China agrees to a set of structural reforms and agrees to a review of the progress every two years. 
  • China agrees to buy substantially more agricultural products from the US. 
  • China agrees to additional purchases to the tune of $30 billion. 
  • Both powers agree to call a meeting of the WTO for a new round of negotiations with all countries of the world participating. The US takes all its grievances to the WTO. The negotiations might last a few years. 
  • The two powers organize a gathering of the top 100 technology companies of the world for a Privacy And Security Summit along the lines of the Rio Summit in 1992 for the environment on the sidelines of the G20 Summit next year. The top 20 economies and the top 100 tech companies thrash out solutions. How much of it is about agreeing on common standards? How much of it is about lawmaking and law enforcement? How could the law enforcement agencies of the world cooperate? How much of it is technical? How much is beyond reach and awaiting further advances in technology? 
  • The T100 is a permanent forum meeting annually on the sidelines of G20. 



No President Is Above the Law First, a hostile foreign government attacked our 2016 election to help candidate Donald Trump get elected. Second, candidate Donald Trump welcomed that help. Third, when the federal government tried to investigate, now-President Donald Trump did everything he could to delay, distract, and otherwise obstruct that investigation....... That’s a crime. ..... He’s referring President Trump for impeachment, and it’s up to Congress to act.

Business groups are considering legal action against the White House over Mexico tariffs The powerful U.S. Chamber of Commerce is mulling its legal options in response to the duties...... While top business organizations have repeatedly slammed tariffs Trump levied on trading partners such as Mexico, Canada and China, a lawsuit would mark a major escalation in their opposition to White House trade policy....... The duties could damage key U.S. industries such as auto manufacturing, and crucial 2020 electoral states such as Arizona, Michigan and Texas could feel particularly sharp pain from the tariffs.

GOP lawmakers, business groups slam Trump's Mexico tariff threat
Making Sense of the New American Right
Trump and Bibi’s Bad Week
Trump's approval rating hits highest point in two years
Jeremy Siegel says Trump must cut a trade deal with China to protect the two pillars his re-election case: The strong stock market and economy “The market wants a solution,” says Siegel. “Don’t forget, the market didn’t really want this trade war.” .... Since Trump’s tariff-threat tweet on May 5, the S&P 500 has lost about $1.1 trillion in value. ....... stocks could drop 10% to 20% if the U.S. and China were to dig in during trade talks, he said, “The market is going to continue to react” if Trump wants to push China to be the end....... “You can pull victory out of defeat. No one is really going to look at the details,” the Wharton professor said, stressing that the president has a bully pulpit to cast any agreement with China as a victory even if it’s just so-so.

Beijing experts’ latest message as trade talks stall: The US needs China sentiment contrasts with that of Chinese state-run media, which is emphasizing China’s ability to stand up to the U.S. ...... as long as there is negotiation, then there will be results ..... Beijing would like to keep negotiating with the U.S. It could even be a years-long process that cycles through negotiation and fights ...... China has been removing ownership restrictions in some industries such as financial services and autos. This March, Beijing also rushed to pass a new foreign investment law that officially prohibits forced technology transfer and increases the protection of intellectual property rights. In June, the government is also set to release an expanded list of industries to which foreign businesses can have access. ...... Some have hoped the trade tensions would push Beijing toward important changes to the structure of its economy.



We asked the Democrats running for president how they would negotiate with China on trade. Here’s what they said “Donald Trump has shown he knows nothing about trade,” says Rep. Seth Moulton...... Five Democrats say any trade deal with China should address human rights issues. Among them: Sen. Bernie Sanders, who said he would target American firms that provide surveillance equipment. ...... “China is going to eat our lunch? Come on, man,” Biden told a crowd in Iowa earlier this month. ....... Sanders: It is in the interests of the United States to work to strengthen institutions like the WTO and the UN rather than trying to go it alone. American concerns about China’s technology practices are shared in Europe and across the Asia-Pacific. We can place far more pressure on China to change its policies if we work together with the broader international community and the other developed economies. International institutions also offer China a template for reforming its own internal intellectual property and industrial practices. ...... Sanders: Yes. Labor protections are very weak in China, and the rights of workers are an essential component of human rights. The Trump administration has proven itself indifferent to labor rights, and apparently would prefer that American workers are reduced to the position of Chinese workers, rather than that labor everywhere enjoy basic protections and strong standard of living. The Trump administration has also done nothing to pressure China over its abhorrent treatment of the Uighur and Tibetan peoples. Future trade negotiations should, for example, target American corporations that contribute surveillance technologies that enable China’s authoritarian practices............ Sanders: While China has adopted some better practices, it still has a long way to go. The Trump administration is correct to put pressure on China to reform its practices, and I hope that some good comes from current trade negotiations. The economic relationship between the United States and China has been the engine of global growth for the past 25 years, and we should acknowledge that in China it has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. In both China and the United States, however, the benefits of this growth have not been shared equally, and have accrued in a very disproportionate way to the very wealthiest. The problem is that the Trump administration is mainly interested in addressing some of the imbalances between America and China overall, when it also needs to address basic drivers of economic inequality. The future of this relationship requires both a degree of pressure on China, and reform of the economy inside the United States itself. ....... Sanders: The U.S. has a role to play in supporting bilateral and multilateral diplomacy between China and others in the region to deescalate and handle disputes. The best policy in both the near and long term is to strengthen international institutions, in this case the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The United States should press China to abide by internationally agreed guidelines for managing maritime issues, in no small part by ratifying UNCLOS itself. ......





Elon Musk’s SpaceX is now worth more than Tesla Musk is the largest shareholder and CEO of both companies, with a 54% stake in SpaceX and more than 20% ownership of Tesla........ investors shouldn’t rule out the possibility that Musk could use his SpaceX stake to “collateralize” Tesla. “There’s a precedent for Elon Musk to think across his portfolio of companies”

Cramer: The US economy ‘could be on the verge of a significant slowdown’ executives are also weighing the odds of the Democratic Party winning the White House in 2020 ...... “yields don’t protect you anymore ... the stocks keep falling on fears of a worldwide tariff-related slowdown.”

Markets signal to US and China on the trade war: You have ‘blundered into a minefield’

The New York Fed’s gauge of recession probability over the next 12 months is now at 27.5%, the highest since the financial crisis.

..... “It’s like lighting a match. You think you know how to control it. That’s where the uncertainty comes in” ...... Whether it’s increased expectations for interest rate cuts, decreasing expectations for inflation or queasy bond and stock market investors who are more aggressively pricing in slower growth, the message is being sent to the U.S. and China that danger lurks. ..... the ecosystem around the economy and the trade headlines remains fragile.


China won when Trump blindsided Mexico with tariffs, says former Mexican ambassador to China
US manufacturing activity dives to more than 9-year low on trade war worries, survey shows
Grover Norquist urges Trump to get rid of trade tariffs, calling them taxes on US consumers
Major Wall Street banks jeer Trump’s Mexico tariffs: ‘Damaging at a number of levels’
‘Very dangerous’: Putin, Trump want to weaken the European Union, top official says
GOP lawmakers, business groups slam Trump's Mexico tariff threat

Making Sense of the New American Right The conservative intellectual movement has been and continues to be fractious, contentious, combustible, and less of a force than most assume....... The debate over Trump's character and fitness for office opened, or poured salt on, wounds that have not and will not heal. ...... The president did not win a majority, captured a smaller percentage of the popular vote than Mitt Romney, and took the Electoral College thanks to 77,000 votes spread over three states. It is also the case that to date President Trump has been most successful when he has adhered to the traditional Republican program of tax cuts, defense spending, and judicial appointments. ........ The rise of Donald Trump, Brexit, and nation-state populism throughout the world certainly suggest that something has changed in global politics. American conservatism ought to investigate, recognize, and assimilate the empirical reality before it. The trouble is that no one has concluded definitively what that reality is. ....... They believe the nation-state is the core unit of geopolitics and that national sovereignty and independence are more important than global flows of capital, labor, and commodities....... the conservative terrain has become so difficult to navigate that it's useful to have a map. ..... the people who remind us that America is not ruled from above but driven from below. ...... Social decline, he said, is related to the loss of manufacturing jobs. It happened in the inner cities. Now it's happening in the Rust Belt and in rural America. When jobs disappear and low-skilled male wages decline, family formation breaks down. ...... advocated a national industrial strategy ...... the frayed bonds that barely connect working-class Americans to each other ....... they are certain American foreign policy should be restrained, within constitutional bounds, and prioritize diplomacy over military force. ...... Economic freedom has brought about a global system of trade and finance that has outsourced jobs, shifted resources to the metropolitan coasts, and obscured its self-seeking under the veneer of social justice. Personal freedom has ended up in the mainstreaming of pornography, alcohol, drug, and gambling addiction, abortion, single-parent families, and the repression of orthodox religious practice and conscience. ..... the "strong gods" of familial, national, and religious authority. ...... turning away from the secular world and shielding, as best you can, spiritual life. ...... "to use these values [of civility and decency] to enforce our order and our orthodoxy, not pretend that they could ever be neutral." ...... Rather than asking the question, ‘What should conservatives/progressives do?' considerable advances can be made through certain purely practical considerations: ‘How can the integrity of the national political community be assured?' ‘How can commercial activity and technological development continue to be turned toward the common good, and toward our own strategic advantage?' ......... For decades now our politics and culture have been dominated by a particular philosophy of freedom. It is a philosophy of liberation from family and tradition; of escape from God and community; a philosophy of self-creation and unrestricted, unfettered free choice. ........ "celebrates the individual," Hawley went on. But "it leads to hierarchy. Though it preaches merit, it produces elitism. Though it proclaims liberty, it destroys the life that makes liberty possible. Replacing it and repairing the profound harm it has caused is one of the great challenges of our day."

Trump and Bibi’s Bad Week Even on Fox News, Mueller’s statement was greeted as a significant blow to the President, with the network’s chief political anchor, Bret Baier, telling viewers that Mueller had directly rebutted Trump’s claim of “no collusion, no obstruction.” ...... Washington and Jerusalem are facing twin crises, disputes over the reach of executive power in the face of scandal and investigation. .....

politics have become a crude reality show

.... “There are all kinds of things happening that, several years ago, could only be a figment of our imagination.” ..... We are living in a real-time seminar on democracy’s dysfunctions. ....... the context of the rise of authoritarian-minded right-wing populists across the Western world ...... It can all seem overwhelming—too many little crises to keep track of. ...... Whether or not there is anything to be done about it, the collapse of the liberal order is, in fact, happening. ........ the number of democratic countries in the world has fallen every year for the past dozen years. ...... E.U. parliamentary elections confirmed that the right-wing populism that fuelled Brexit and political discontent across the continent remains a potent force; populist parties received the largest share of the vote in four of Europe’s six largest countries. ...... Tumult is the new normal.




Trump’s Crazy Mexico Tariff Is Stoking a Meltdown on Wall Street In writing about Donald Trump, there is a daily temptation to say that this time he’s gone too far. ...... Trump’s move could derail congressional approval of a new trade deal with Canada and Mexico. ......

The only real constraints on Trump’s actions are the courts, the opinion polls, and the financial markets.

...... If the new tariffs do go into effect, they will raise the prices for consumers on a wide range of goods, which could produce a popular backlash. ...... eighty-two per cent of self-identified Republicans approve of Trump’s trade policies...... the President of Mexico, Andrรฉs Manuel Lรณpez Obrador, has already indicated that he won’t jump to attention. ..... (On Thursday, Lรณpez Obrador sent Trump a letter in which he said, “Please, remember that I do not lack valor, that I am not a coward nor timorous but rather act according to principles.”) ...... Trump seems to believe that he can target anybody for his bullying ..... this latest Trump power play is so extreme and potentially self-destructive that, according to the Wall Street Journal, even his own hard-line trade adviser, Robert Lighthizer, opposed it. ....... On Wall Street, there is a lot of nervousness about where things are heading, and whether Tariff Man understands the risks that he is taking. Financial markets don’t usually go south gradually; they collapse suddenly, in a heap. ....... he’s going to have to blink on tariffs, because the market can’t live with this level of crazy.”


Trump's approval rating hits highest point in two years 48 percent approve of the job Trump is doing ..... “Every point of increase in this range of 45 to 50 improves the possibility of re-election.” ...... The president’s job approval rating is at 42.5 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. A recent Rasmussen Reports survey found Trump at 48 percent, but six other recent polls found him ranging between 38 percent and 44 percent.

Wednesday, May 22, 2019

The Mighty Dollar

The starting point is the dollar’s status as a global reserve currency and international monetary standard, and the US current account deficit is the only mechanism through which the global supply of dollars can be increased. This is why a global economic boom often coincides with a higher US current account deficit, while global recessions often see the US current account moving in the opposite direction............ the expected surge in Chinese imports would almost close up America’s entire current account deficit and this would lead to a global dollar shortage. As a result, market forces would likely drive up the dollar to such a level where US exports to other parts of the world would be reduced, thus “re-creating” a trade or current account deficit. ...... In the end, either higher short rates or a stronger US dollar or both would act to slow down the US economy and ensure that America’s trade balance is more or less unchanged. ...... a Sino-US trade deal could simply amount to a zero-sum game in the short term: a gain for the US, a loss for the rest of the world, and indifference for China ..... a net efficiency loss in the world supply chains. ........ To avert or minimise the adverse impact of a China-US trade deal on the rest of the world economy, the Sino-US trade deal should focus on Beijing’s protective trade and investment policies rather than bilateral trade imbalance. The China-US trade imbalance is the natural result of global supply-chain evolution, and eliminating this imbalance is too disruptive for every country involved. ....... making sure that Beijing plays by the rules and levels off the playing field for foreign businesses and suppliers would represent a net gain for the world economy, benefiting all.
A US-China trade deal won’t be a win for global markets if Beijing shifts its trade surplus to other countries

A little good news could go a long way. If the US and China are shrewd enough, between them they can clinch recovery with a trade compromise that convinces investors that the future remains bright.
The world is taking leave of its senses and falling down the rabbit hole of a deepening global trade war, economic shocks and political instability. The post-war world order is breaking down, multilateralism is giving way to national self-interest and the political forums for peaceful debate are failing.......It’s time for someone to step forward and show stronger leadership before the world sinks back to where the 2008 financial crisis left off. Right now, the world is in self-harm mode and deeply vulnerable.

Sunday, September 04, 2016

Rajan Is Right

Raghuram Rajan, India's Departing Central Banker, Has a New Warning 

2008 was a wasted crisis. It was a crisis that could have helped the world take one big leap towards a knowledge economy. The world had an opportunity to shape globoeconomics, a new third dimension to the traditional micro and macroeconomics. Some new global institutions were needed. America needed a three trillion stimulus with much of that money ending on Main Street, but instead ended up with a much bigger monetary stimulus with all the money ending up on Wall Street, pretty much free.

If the interest rates stay at near zero for long enough, it is no longer a tool, is it? But what if that has been your only tool? Then you have no available tool the next time a big crisis hits.