Barackface: Congress

Showing posts with label Congress. Show all posts

Friday, April 04, 2014

Pawar’s Prognosis

india kerala boat people (Photo credit: FriskoDude)

mamata neemuch (Photo credit: dr.dayaram aalok)

English: Young woman from Tamil Nadu near Mahabalipuram, India Français : Jeune femme du Tamil Nadu près de Mahâballipuram, Inde (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

English: Nitish Kumar (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Sharad Pawar, who has had a front seat to Indian politics for half a century now and was at one point touted as a prime ministerial candidate, said something interesting recently. He said the BJP will emerge the largest party, but it will not get a majority even with its allies tagging along. He said the key to 2014 was with the magic six: Mamata, Naveen, Mulayam, Mayawati, Nitish and Jayalalita.

When the BJP stands at around 100, the Congress stands at around 200 seats. And then they switch. That has gone on a few times now. Which means the non-Congress, non-BJP parties have a solid hold on about 245 seats. They together are almost as big as the Congress and the BJP put together. If the BJP moves from around 100 seats to 200 seats, it should be called a pendulum swing, not a wave. A wave would be if the BJP hit something like 250 seats. Not even BJP-paid pollsters are predicting anything like that.

Modi might have peaked before a single vote has been cast. And it is downhill for him now on.

I think of India as an European Union that is actually working. It is such a large country. You put America, Europe and Africa together, and you get India. One big reason I love New York City is because it is crowded and it reminds me of India. Although India is more crowded pretty much everywhere. American cities come across as ghost towns by comparison.

It is hard to create a national wave in a country the size of India. Data analysis shows “India’s national elections may not be national in its true sense but merely a series of state elections held simultaneously to elect a central government…… even during large national waves such as anti-Emergency, Indira Gandhi sympathy or Bofors scandal, the southern states and West Bengal voted as per local trends, throwing up local winners or contradicting national trends. During the height of the 1977 anti-Congress wave, of the 12 largest states, the Congress won five — Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Karnataka and Kerala. States like Andhra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala and West Bengal, which account for 32 per cent (171) of all LS seats, seem completely immune to any national sentiment and vote as almost separate nations in themselves.”

Let’s throw in a few numbers. Let’s put Mamata at 30 seats, Naveen at 20, Mulayam 25, Mayawati 25, Nitish 25, and Jayalalita 20. It has to be noted the three gentlemen belong to the Janata Parivar, and might form a core. That core of 70 seats might form the nucleus that might catapult someone like Nitish, and the three ladies might envelope those 70 with their own 75, or alternately the three ladies might come together first and that might catapult someone like Mamata. These magic six with their 150 seats might bring in Rahul as Deputy Prime Minister to rope in 100 seats the Congress might get. That is 250. My projection puts another 75 seats into that kitty. And you are looking at Sushma Swaraj as Opposition Leader, thank you Mr. Modi for crisscrossing the country on her behalf.

Nitish has been the top performing politician in India for years now. Gujrat was already the leading Indian state before Modi ever came along. As the top performing Chief Minister Nitish deserves to be Prime Minister. And the people of Bihar should not worry. His being Chief Minister has been like he has been riding around on a bicycle. He becomes Prime Minister and he will be riding around on a motorbike. Imagine how much more he could do for Bihar as Prime Minister.

For a landlocked, agricultural, poorest state like Bihar to clock a 15% growth rate is nothing sort of magical. All of India deserves what the people of Bihar have had. And that is Nitish and his magic.

India is a two trillion dollar economy today. If it grows at 10% every year until 2050, it will have become a 60 trillion dollar economy by 2050. 2014 is a watershed year. It is like 1980 was for China. India has finally arrived. And it could do double digit growth rates for the next 30 years and more.

It is not like Nitish is not a proud Hindu. He is building the largest Hindu temple in the world in Bihar. But being a proud Hindu does not mean you negate the plight of the Muslims in India. There are more Muslims in India than there are British in Britain, than there are French in France, than there are Germans in Germany.

If India can outdo America on free speech, on diversity, it can hope to outdo America as an economy, and that is the way to becoming a global superpower. The key to the spread of democracy across the Islamic world lies right there in India. America could not export democracy, but India could inspire it. Hindus and Muslims living peace and prosperity in India is key to that essential spread of democracy. Getting along is good domestic policy, it is also good foreign policy.

Like a young Muslim voter in Bihar said recently about Nitish: “He has set his tail on fire for us, now wait and watch him burn Lanka down.”

Wednesday, April 02, 2014

Modi Wave?

English: Nitish Kumar (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

“India is a geographical term. It is no more a united nation than the equator.”
- Winston Churchill

Mamata was the Congress' largest ally, and she quit that alliance and is strongly anti-Congress, and anti-BJP today. Nitish was the BJP's largest ally, and he quit that alliance and is strongly anti-BJP and anti-Congress today. And if the states are like independent countries, the non-Congress, non-BJP parties stand the strongest chance today. My back envelope arithmetic is putting Nitish at the top. He is the best performing politician in India and deserves it.

Why waves don’t matter

Do national narratives or waves play an important role in determining voter preferences across states? Not really, as this analysis shows. Using the definition of a national wave as “a nationwide sentiment that can work either for or against one national party”, historical electoral data analysis reveals that waves are not probably worth squabbling over. The impact of national sentiment on vote- and seat-share has declined significantly over the last four decades as voting preferences get more local and state-specific. This analysis shows India’s national elections may not be national in its true sense but merely a series of state elections held simultaneously to elect a Central government.

Friday, March 21, 2014

Modi Has Made Some Impressive Moves

English: Image of Narendra Modi at the World Economic Forum in India (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

"I have given you free mixie grinders, goats, cows, gold for engagement ceremonies, washing machines, cycles and fans."
- Jayalalita

BJP announces six-party alliance in Tamil Nadu

He has stayed away from explosive topics like religion. He has stayed focused on development issues.

He gave himself an early start.

He has run a national campaign to the point he is the only one running for Prime Minister. Others hold desires, but no one else is officially running.

He has held massive rallies and all over the country too. Other than the vote count itself, nothing gives you gravitas like massive rallies. This has helped him clinch allies.

He has by far the best social media operation. He has learned from the grassroots ways of the Aam Aadmi Party.

He has worked hard to rope in allies.

He has competed against Mulayam in Uttar Pradesh. And it looks like he is winning. Mulayam can not get fewer seats than Modi in UP and still claim to be a PM candidate.

He has competed against Nitish in Bihar. If the polls are misleading and he is not leading, he sure is competitive.

Looks like he is now competing hard against Jayalalita in Tamilnadu. And this is a state in the South where the BJP has been known more for its absence than anything else. Two big rallies in Chennai have done the trick.

One by one he is out to knock out all the Third Front PM candidates, and there are a bunch of them.

The Congress is in a free fall after a decade in power. And Modi is competing hard against the leading Third Front candidates.

If Modi manages to get the BJP past the 200 mark, he might become unstoppable. But right now I am not predicting he will.

He has an impressive life story, selling tea and all. He has an impressive economic record in Gujrat. He is not a high caste person by birth. That has appeal.

Modi is my second choice for PM. I do think Nitish is better. But then in a democracy it is not who is the most qualified, it is about who gets the most votes. I do admit to a Bihar bias, and for me Godhra is not an issue because the Supreme Court of India says it is not an issue. It is that Nitish' economic record is far superior.

A vote for Modi could make India more Chinese

The election frontrunner is more about making the economic pie bigger than slicing it up fairly ..... Whether the planners in Beijing are overseeing the biggest rural-urban migration in human history or building the world’s longest high-speed rail network faster than you can say “tickets please”, there is a sense of purpose to everything they do. India – democratic, federal, chaotic – has never been able to pull off anything like that speed of execution. ....... what if Indians voted to become more like China? That is one plausible interpretation of the seemingly decisive swing in electoral support towards Narendra Modi, Gujarat’s chief minister and a prime ministerial candidate with Chinese characteristics. If nothing else, Mr Modi, whose leadership style brooks little opposition, has a reputation for getting things done. His supporters, including most of the country’s business leaders, who have flocked to Gujarat to pay homage, praise his decisiveness and hatred of red tape. ........ Modinomics is the triumph of implementation over prevarication. ...... Like Deng Xiaoping, who departed from Communist ideology with his pragmatic entreaty to “let some people get rich first”, Mr Modi is more about making the economic pie bigger than slicing it up fairly. ...... Manmohan Singh’s Congress administration .. has prioritised redistribution over expansion. Its profligacy on subsidies and social programmes, charge detractors, has obliged the central bank to tighten monetary policy, thereby choking growth. ........ Sadly for Congress, its redistributive policies are seen to have failed even by those who are supposed to have benefited. ......rich and poor Indians, educated and non-educated, urban and rural, want a switch to Mr Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata party by a hefty majority. Fully seven in 10 are dissatisfied with the way things are going, and 63 per cent favour a BJP administration over a Congress one. No fewer than 78 per cent have a favourable view of Mr Modi, with just 16 per cent disapproving. ........Asked which party would do a better job helping the poor, 54 per cent had faith in the BJP, with only 21 per cent selecting Congress. That is surprising given that Congress has funded a food-guarantee programme covering almost two-thirds of the population and a rural employment guarantee scheme ensuring 100 days of subsidised work per household. Similarly, asked which party would be better at controlling price rises, another crucial concern for poor people, the tally was 55 per cent in favour of Mr Modi’s BJP against 17 per cent for Congress. ......... Part of Mr Modi’s attraction is that, by sheer force of will, he may be able to override some of the checks and balances of Indian democracy and introduce some of the clearheadness of growth-driven China ....... Under a Modi administration, the hope is, land will be cleared, permissions will be granted, and roads and other infrastructure will be built. In this cheerful scenario – far too optimistic, according to his many detractors – he will do for India in its entirety what he has been able to achieve for Gujarat.

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Indian Surveys Are Off

हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंसारी पटना में पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री सत्येन्द्र नारायण सिन्हा(छोटे साहब) की 94वीं जयंती पर आयोजित व्याख्यानमाला श्रंखला पर पूर्व सांसद किशोरी सिन्हा और मुख्यमंत्री नीतीश कुमार के साथ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

India is the largest and most interesting democracy on the planet, no doubt about it. It is also cutting edge in many ways. India has had a Sikh Prime Minister and a Sikh army chief, not to say Muslim presidents, and a woman Prime Minister. That is like America having a Filipino president and a Puerto Rican whatever. And when Nitish takes Bihar’s growth rate to 15 per cent, you know he is beating China, and Bihar is not even a coastal, industrial state.

But that cutting edge thing does not seem to be happening with the Indian polls. In 2004 the surveys showed the BJP coming back to power. Instead Manmohan Singh became Prime Minister. The surveys were off also in 2009. This time I do think there is a Modi wave, but it is a wave in that it will take the BJP from about 100 seats to 200 seats. When you double your seat count, it can be called a wave. But there are surveys that show Nitish Kumar getting five seats. How do you explain that? His job approval rating in Bihar is close to 70%.

Recently I came across a survey that claimed the BJP was set to get half the seats in the South. That is when I threw the towel. That is not possible. The BJP has no presence in the South. How could it end up with half the seats in the South?

If anything the polls and the surveys have added further mystery to the process. You know no one knows for sure what’s going on. If you give 200 seats to the BJP, and 100 seats to the Congress, that leaves 245 seats to the rest. And the Congress is already giving hints it will stop the BJP at any cost, even if that means supporting the so-called Third Front.

Only Nitish is now calling it the First Front. It is obvious there is a need for a new name. If you are going to build a coalition where the Congress is itself a junior ally in power, you cannot call it the Third Front. Mamata calls it the tired front.

India is such a large democracy, and most Indians are so rural, you have to ask for the methodologies in those surveys. Who are these pollsters calling? And what are they asking? What is their sample size? There was a sting operation a few weeks back that showed all the leading polling agencies were happy tweaking the poll results for the highest bidder. That is like when the search engines before Google put you at the top if you gave them money. There is also an upper caste bias against people like Nitish. And Indian media has been slower to change than Indian political leadership. Indian media is still upper caste dominated. And then there is the corporate bias. The big media houses are owned by the big Indian corporate interests who threw their lot behind Modi a long time ago.

There are two Indians who speak amazing Hindi. One is Amitabh. Another is Nitish. I just love watching both of them speak Hindi on YouTube.

I admitted to my Bihar bias a long time ago. But that does not change the fact that Nitish is the far superior candidate. And that is why I support him. The polls projecting Nitish getting five seats is like some polls projecting the BJP will get half the seats in the South.

I think something new is about to happen in India. India is finally about to prove democracy is a superior form of government to whatever they have in China, but you do have to apply it all the way. And if you do that, you end up with double digit growth rates. Something happened in China around 1980. Something is about to happen in India in 2014. That positive change will be the gift of the Kumbh Mela called the Indian general elections.

Just like there is a global Chinese identity and community, there is a global Indian identity and community. And that identity gets a boost when India does well.

At some point down the line, poll taking in India is going to get a little more scientific, a little more reliable. But that time is not now. So I am not putting too much stock in the polls. And the Indian election procedure lasts a full month. So there will be a lot of waiting before the final results are out. But when they are out, there will be a flurry of activity. I expect Nitish to be camping out in Delhi at that point in time. Coalition building is an art form. Nitish’s ways speak to the diversity of India. And that is what will carry the day. It helps that he is also the top performing Indian politician today. Like Salman Khan said, may the best person get the top job. Nitish is that best person.

Saturday, March 01, 2014

Congress Overture To Nitish Is Meaningful

English: Nitish Kumar (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

This shows a few things.

(1) The Congress is okay being a junior partner to Nitish, and that starts in Bihar. This is like Modi just lost 100 MPs.

(2) Laloo is no longer with the Congress. He does not have the Modi option. Which means he is now angling to join the Third Front. He has abandoned the Congress just like Paswan did. The Third Front just gained 5-10 MPs.

(3) Bihar getting Special Category Status will be monumental. It will give a major positive jolt to Nitish in Bihar.

Right now I see Nitish winning at least 20 seats in Bihar. 20 out of 40.

Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi on course to win India's Prime Ministerial elections

Only the courageous make predictions about Indian elections. They have proved notoriously hard to call, partly because of unreliable data. In 2004, most expected Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to smoothly secure reelection. As it was, Sonia Gandhi led the Congress Party to a surprise victory...... Mr Modi’s victory is far from guaranteed. India’s parliament has 543 seats and for Mr Modi and his coalition allies to slip past the 272 mark will need him to perform in places where the BJP has traditionally not done well, especially in the south and east.... It is in these areas, particularly, that India’s increasingly powerful regional parties are pervasive. .... If Mr Kejriwal could win 30 or 40 seats, could that be enough to steal Mr Modi’s thunder. Could it even open the way for a so-called Third Front government? ...... If Mr Kejriwal could win 30 or 40 seats, could that be enough to steal Mr Modi’s thunder. Could it even open the way for a so-called Third Front government?

Wary of Lalu, Cong sounds out Nitish

the Bihar chief minister would need a dramatic offer, such as the grant of special status to the state, to revisit his plans after joining the third front with the Left and other regional parties..... There is no word from the Congress on the question of special status but the cabinet is holding an unscheduled meeting tomorrow evening. .... The strongest Congress candidates, like Shakeel Ahmed and Akhilesh Singh, have been denied their home constituencies of Madhubani and East Champaran (Motihari). ..... While Lalu Prasad felt Paswan had lost his magic, he was also angry when he came to know Paswan had suggested to Sonia Gandhi that the JD(U) was a better option than the RJD. .... Ironically, the JD(U) was Rahul Gandhi’s first choice but senior leaders pressured him to accommodate Lalu Prasad. The veterans thought the vice-president was being naïve in ignoring Lalu Prasad but now the party has egg on its face for hobnobbing with a convicted politician.

Congress-RJD talks sour, JD(U) steps in

Chief Minister Nitish Kumar apparently responded to the overtures, saying the UPA government and the Congress should make their stand clear on his plea for a special status to Bihar within 24 hours

Revealed: Why Lalu's MLAs walked out on him

the low-caste poorer Muslims -- called Pasmanda Musalman -- also found they were getting nothing from Lalu and decamped to Kumar. It is this caste-class base that prompted Nitish Kumar to break a two-decade-long friendship with the Bharatiya Janata Party -- because he knew that if he stayed in the company of the BJP and Narendra Modi, Lalu Prasad would wrest his Muslim following back from him..... latest evidence suggests that Kumar was right in breaking ties with the BJP: in the defection drama played out in Bihar last week, Members of Legislative Assembly who have crossed over from Lalu to Nitish Kumar and have opted to stay on with Kumar are almost all Muslim MLAs or MLAs representing constituencies that have a large Muslim population. .... It is rare to spot such a clear-thinking, resolute politician as Kumar. But even more rare is a set of sitting MLAs who are so desperate about what their electorate will say to them that they are ready to give up their seats in order to be in the right party (at last count, the number of MLAs who had crossed over from Lalu to Nitish had dwindled from 13 out of a total of 22 of Lalu’s men to four). ..... most of them felt that Lalu had lost his ability to rope in Muslims and now feel that by snapping ties with the BJP, Kumar is the only leader in Bihar to have any credibility among the minorities. ..... Akhtar ul Iman, for instance, who contested and won one of the assembly segments in the Kishanganj parliamentary constituency, which has 67.6 per cent Muslim population, has stayed on with JD-U. ..... while Yadavs continue to rally behind Lalu Prasad and are angry that their leader had to suffer the ignominy of incarceration, the Muslims are unmoved by this. Add to this the significant lifestyle change that electrification of rural Bihar has brought about and the talking point in Bihar is Nitish Kumar. ...... The upper castes still don’t like him. And Modi does represent aspirations of a section of Bihar society. But for many in the rural part of the state, Kumar’s promise that by 2015, villages with a population of just 100 people will also have access to electricity is aspirational. ..... By 2015, power supply in the state will reach 5,500 Mw. Right now, it is 3,000 Mw. Kumar’s ambition is to make Bihar power surplus by 2018-19. This is a far cry from the situation in 2005-06 when Bihar had 800 Mw available at its disposal out of which only 550 Mw reached domestic consumers owing to commitments to Nepal and the Indian railways. .... Kumar has spotted a secular trend and hopes that if the state provides the basics, young people, no matter what their caste or religion, will be able to leverage it to achieve great heights. It is this that Bihar will vote for in 2014 and 2015.