Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Coronavirus News (21)

Post-COVID: Which Behaviors Will Stick? there will also be some amount of permanent restructuring. ....... The most obvious one is business travel and remote work. Everyone who can is learning how to do this now — including companies/teams/individuals that may have resisted it mightily in the past. Moving forward, it’s going to be much harder to justify an in-person-only culture. Virtual conferences & meetings have drawbacks, for sure, but they also have advantages. I suspect that coming out of the crisis, many professionals will have a permanently higher bar for justifying work travel. ........

I have never been more active with friends and family — especially, for some reason, those who live at a distance — as much as recently..... I have never done video chats with groups of friends and now that’s regular.

..... everyone’s at home with nothing to do. ....... What is most interesting to me is not the social changes, but the institutional ones. In the cases of work, learning and healthcare, we are talking about massive institutions that are learning new behaviors on-the-fly. This is a big deal — we’re probably seeing years-worth of change occurring over a matter of weeks. It’s astonishing

Big Changes Coming This pandemic has become a forcing function that quickly exposes a lot of the problems in the healthcare system at once. Because of how slow the industry is and the number of interest groups that fight to maintain the status quo, healthcare has been a boiling frog that has been unable to swiftly make changes and has been slowly descending into an increasingly shittier state......

this pandemic is to the healthcare system as 9/11 was for travel: an immediate macro event that changed the industry forever.

....... Medicare is also reimbursing for telemedicine visits, and many commercial insurers are covering visits for the same rates they would normally have covered for an in-person visit. ....... But the most non-sensical rule of all which is FINALLY being addressed during this crisis is the fact that doctors typically have had to get licensed in every single state to see a patient in that state. I have never understood this rule - the actual practice of medicine doesn’t have that kind of variance state-by-state.

Very Very Sad: Every 6 minutes ONE New Yorker is dying!

Posted by Chandra Prakash Sharma on Monday, March 30, 2020

China has won the World War III. Period. #CoronavirusChinaVsUSA

Posted by Bijay Raut on Sunday, March 29, 2020

The total cases of USA has reached more than double than that of China. How come the recovery rate of China is almost 4...

Posted by Subhash Chandra Shah on Tuesday, March 31, 2020

True: if Zoom classes are effective enough, why pay very high tuition charges for in-person classes? Or, as consumer...

Posted by Ashutosh Tiwari on Tuesday, March 31, 2020

“The world economy will go into recession this year with a predicted loss of trillions of dollars of global income due...

Posted by Bijay Raut on Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Drink hot water , soup 🥣,tea ☕️ and hot milk 🥛 every one hours...... this is what chinese people are doing these days ..to protect from covid-19

Posted by Jimmy Gurung on Monday, March 30, 2020

Meanwhile in China: “March economic activity returns to expansion.” (Source: China 24 TV, Beijing, March 31, 2020) #ChinaIsExapandingWhileWorldIsBleeding

Posted by Bijay Raut on Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Self-isolation with 20 girlfriends...no comment...

Posted by Jay Nishaant on Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Likelihood of survival of coronavirus disease 2019 "A case fatality ratio [CFR] of an infectious disease measures the...

Posted by Madhav Bhatta on Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Hopefully, it looks like a turning point of the CoViD-19 epidemic in Italy. From the epidemic curve below, it is clear...

Posted by Shankar Yadav on Tuesday, March 31, 2020

FDA authorizes two-minute antibody testing kit to detect coronavirus
First-Ever Evictions Database Shows: 'We're In the Middle Of A Housing Crisis'
Coronavirus: Gordon Brown calls for new global government to fight impact of Covid-19 Former prime minister Gordon Brown has called for the creation of a temporary form of global government to be assembled to provide a unified body to tackle coronavirus. .....

“This is not something that can be dealt with in one country,” he said, according to The Guardian. “There has to be a coordinated global response.”

....... “This is first and foremost a medical emergency and there has to be joint action to deal with that. But the more you intervene to deal with the medical emergency, the more you put economies at risk.” ....... “With the healthcare crisis, the idea of individual self-isolation is now commonplace, but on the international stage, national self-isolation has taken off,” he said, according to PA. ....... “In the post-Cold War unipolar era, America acted multilaterally. Now, and in a multipolar era, America acts unilaterally, and aggressive America first, us-versus-them nationalism — along with China first, India first, Russia first, Brazil first, and Turkey first – is going global.........

“But even the most isolationist nations must know that it is not enough to stop coronavirus in one country: it has to be stopped in every country.

Only India, China will survive coronavirus, rest of the entire world economy will go into recession: UN
Existing Drugs May Work Against Covid-19. AI Is Screening Thousands to Find Out
What Would Life on Mars Be Like? Millions of Us Are Getting a Taste
5 practical ways to ace a virtual negotiation If you’re like most of the managers and executives that I work with at companies big and small, you have a very strong preference for face-to-face negotiation over the screen-to-screen variety. ...... Why is that? ..... It’s in part because any negotiation contains two motivations: a cooperative element (“We’re all here because we perceive some synergies”) and a more obvious competitive element (“Each of us is trying to get the best possible deal for ourselves”). Those mixed motivations can result in tension. ........ But “e-negotiations” escalate that tension even further because parties feel they won’t be able to “read the person” as well as in an in-person interaction and make immediate, in-the-moment adjustments—all in hopes of sealing the perfect deal and avoiding being taken to the proverbial cleaners. .............

those who negotiate online are: less likely to reach deals and more likely to end up at a (costly) impasse; less likely to develop trust and more likely to lose trust during the interchange; less likely to build rapport

........ when they do reach deals, the deals are more likely to be less win-win, meaning more opportunity left on the table. ...... I’ve seen a lot of negotiations break down before they even start because parties are offended at how they are being treated by the other party. ........ it’s absolutely true that there is a “first-mover” advantage in negotiation (she who makes the first offer usually prevails), but this should not translate into shoving a term sheet into the virtual hands of the receiving party before you even say hello. ...... “late” first offers, those that are presented after appropriate pleasantries are exchanged and the proverbial table is set, are more effective than early first offers. ..... negotiation is inherently a competitive enterprise, and that can bring out the “Mr. or Ms. Hyde” in each of us. So, have a way of checking your own expression and body language, where possible. In a virtual negotiation, this can be very easy, as you’ll likely see your own image on the screen, along with the counterparty. Pay attention to it.

Cities after coronavirus: how Covid-19 could radically alter urban life “If you go back through history and look at the regulations brought in to control cities at times of crisis, from the French revolution to 9/11 in the US, many of them took years or even centuries to unravel” .........

Social distancing has, ironically, drawn some of us closer than ever before.

Whether such groups survive beyond the end of coronavirus to have a meaningful impact on our urban future depends, in part, on what sort of political lessons we learn from the crisis........ in Los Angeles, homeless citizens have seized vacant homes, drawing support from some lawmakers. ..... we are potentially seeing a fundamental shift in urban social relations. “City residents are becoming aware of desires that they didn’t realise they had before,” he says, “which is for more human contact, for links to people who are unlike themselves.”

Coronavirus does spread through the air and lingers in rooms long after patients have left, study finds The killer coronavirus can spread through the air and remain contagious for hours, another study has suggested....... US scientists found high levels of the bug lurking in the air in rooms long after patients had left......What's more is that traces of the coronavirus were also discovered in hospital corridors outside patients' rooms, where staff had been coming in and out..... The University of Nebraska researchers behind the study say the finding highlights the importance of protective clothing for healthcare workers. .......It follows a wealth of studies that have suggested the highly contagious disease does not just spread via droplets in a cough or sneeze....... Scientists around the world are scrambling to understand how the virus, which has now infected 785,282 people and killed almost 38,000, sheds and spreads.

Working Remotely Permanently To Solve Global Warming

It has not even been a month, and the oil industry has already been pushed to the edge. Families are discovering family members. Something good can come out of this. This pandemic has vastly strengthened the case for a rapid global rollout of 5G.

Life and work will never be the same in China as the country attempts a post-virus tech restart While the surge in use of online tools during the outbreak may subside, it has offered a glimpse of the future of working life ..... robots in hospitals, health code apps, online education and remote working ..... accelerating long-term trends such as the digitalisation of education, work and even people. ...... “Tools like this are changing the traditional way of thinking that a meeting can only happen when people gather physically,” she said. “I personally hope my school will continue using the app [after the outbreak is over].” ...... Remote working and online education tools have been among the biggest beneficiaries during the outbreak .....

a glimpse of the future of working life.

...... the digitalisation of education could democratise education resources for a large number of users at lower cost. For instance, China’s prestigious schools like Tsinghua University offered online courses on short video app Douyin during the outbreak. One user commented “I can’t believe I’m in a Tsinghua University class!” ...... wider acceptance of online life could expedite the digitisation of businesses and industries, a key part of China’s overall ambition to utilise technology to power the country’s buildout of “new digital infrastructure”. ....... remote working, e-commerce, online education, and online services will now become new options for more companies under the new circumstances ..... The buildout of digital infrastructure in China involves everything from new high-speed railway lines to smart traffic management systems, all of which will be underpinned by next generation mobile networks that enable faster data transmission speeds and greater connectivity. China has already pledged billions of yuan in investments towards building 5G networks and data centres. ...... “The coronavirus outbreak has actually called closer attention to the importance of the digitisation of people” ..... industrial internet or transportation ........ the current experiment has exposed limitations on the application of remote working and e-learning. ........ March 9, 2020. With almost no new Covid-19 cases being reported in Beijing, workers are slowly returning to their offices with masks on and disinfectant in hand. ........ While the country has the world’s biggest internet population of 854 million people, 541 million are still off the grid, with the majority located in rural villages ....... Some students in Hubei province, where the disease hit the hardest, had to hike to the top of mountains to search for an internet signal ...... “The only limitation [of remote working] is that it can only monitor computer-based work. It won't work to monitor remote plumbers or electricians or manufacturing jobs.”

2 weeks in: what we’ve learned about remote work we are discovering what it’s really like to be home with our families at all times, while also trying to stay productive and connected to our work teams. ....... a completely remote team

The Police: Don't Stand So Close To Me

Don't Stand So Close To Me
The Police

[Verse 1]
Young teacher, the subject
Of schoolgirl fantasy
She wants him so badly
Knows what she wants to be
Inside her there's longing
This girl's an open page
Book marking, she's so close now
This girl is half his age

Don't stand, don't stand so
Don't stand so close to me
Don't stand, don't stand so
Don't stand so close to me

[Verse 2]
Her friends are so jealous
You know how bad girls get
Sometimes it's not so easy
To be the teacher's pet
Temptation, frustration
So bad it makes him cry
Wet bus stop, she's waiting
His car is warm and dry

Don't stand, don't stand so
Don't stand so close to me
Don't stand, don't stand so
Don't stand so close to me

[Verse 3]
Loose talk in the classroom
To hurt they try and try
Strong words in the staffroom
The accusations fly
It's no use, he sees her
He starts to shake and cough
Just like the old man in
That book by Nabokov

Don't stand so close to me
Please don't stand so close to me

Monday, March 30, 2020

AOC Is Joshua?

“If Bernie is Moses, then AOC is Joshua”

Coronavirus News (20)

US extends social distancing to April 30 in hopes of avoiding 100,000 coronavirus deaths
Modi seeks 'forgiveness' from India's poor over COVID-19 lockdown Modi apologises as 21-day lockdown stings millions, leaving the poor hungry and forcing migrant workers to flee cities.
Pelosi on Trump's coronavirus response: 'As the President fiddles, people are dying'
Coronavirus updates: Trump extends shutdown, Fauci warns 200,000 could die
India says no plan to extend coronavirus lockdown as poor struggle
New Yorkers who break social distancing rules will now face fines up to $500

Here in NYC, Our very close friends are infected by Corona Virus, Thanks god they are recovering fast. But, US govt is...

Posted by Anzan Shrestha on Saturday, March 28, 2020

Because of your powerful blessings and prayers I am free from the risk and the doctors going to discharge me tomorrow...

Posted by Shambhu Moktan on Saturday, March 28, 2020

My simple advice to folks in USA: Please lobby for Total Lockdown soon. Trump is foolish not to even lockdown NY. There is no other way. USA will sink further if delayed! #CoronavirusInUSA

Posted by Bijay Raut on Sunday, March 29, 2020

Oil prices fall to 17-year low as Saudi Arabia-Russia standoff continues, coronavirus hits demand
US crude oil price falls below $20 Fall in demand due to virus creates surplus that risks overwhelming storage capacity ..... traders bet production would have to shut to cope with the collapse in demand from the coronavirus pandemic. ..... The global oil industry is facing its biggest demand drop in history ....... While demand has collapsed, the supply of oil has also increased rapidly because of the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Traders now believe the surplus could approach 25m barrels a day next month, a level that could overwhelm storage capacity worldwide within weeks. ......

“This is a historic oil price collapse, and it is not done yet as the system physically runs out of places to put all the oil”

...... “The pain in the shale patch is going to be severe. We will see production shut-ins accelerate.” ...... Higher cost producers such as US shale and Canadian tar sands are broadly unprofitable at these price levels ....... the US oil industry, which expanded in the last decade to make America the world's top oil producer, could contract as much as 2.5m b/d by the end of 2021, from around 13m b/d of crude output now ..... Refineries are cutting back on processing crude oil into fuel, and oil companies could start shutting down producing wells

Minnesotans worry as COVID-19 spreads to nursing homes
Trump extends federal social distancing guidelines to April 30
'Stealth Transmission' of COVID-19 Demands Widespread Mask Usage

Saturday, March 28, 2020

Make Believe

Imagine FDR Delegating World War II To Governors

Coronavirus News (19)

Rhode Island Police to Hunt Down New Yorkers Seeking Refuge Rhode Island police began stopping cars with New York plates Friday. On Saturday, the National Guard will help them conduct house-to-house searches to find people who traveled from New York .... New York is the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S., on Friday reporting a total of 44,000 cases. ..... Rhode Island has just over 200, and it has begun an aggressive campaign to keep the virus out and New Yorkers contained, over objections from civil liberties advocates........ Raimondo, a Democrat, said she had consulted lawyers and said while she couldn’t close the border, she felt confident she could enforce a quarantine. ....... The maximum penalty for not complying: a fine of $500 and 90 days in prison. ....... Just before 1 p.m. Friday, state police were set up on Interstate 95 northbound, at the rest stop closest to the Connecticut border. A mile or two before that, motorists could see signs ordering all New York passenger vehicles to pull over at the rest stop.

'You are not absolutely invulnerable': Fauci talks to Trevor Noah about coronavirus The Covid-19 virus is “insidious and treacherous”, he said, “in that you can spread it easily”, even if you’re asymptomatic or have mild symptoms such as a cough or low fever....... the mortality of seasonal flu – the thing that you and I go through every season – the mortality is about 0.1%,” Fauci explained. “That’s a lot, and we get used to that mortality. But the mortality of this is about 10 times that. It’s at least 1%.” And the mortality rate can be “devastating” for certain populations, such as the elderly and those with underlying conditions such as heart disease, lung disease and diabetes.......

“The virus is the clock”

....... if this virus acts like every other virus that we know, once you get infected, get better, clear the virus, then you’ll have immunity that will prevent you from reinfection,” said Fauci. ....... Biden replied. “The coronavirus is not his fault, but the lack of alacrity, the speed with which he responded to these things, I think could be improved considerably. ....... “I don’t quite understand the lack of willingness to move rapidly and to let science dictate,” Biden continued. .......... On Late Night, Seth Meyers ranted about Trump’s narcissism even in a pandemic. “The president is supposed to be a public trust – you’re supposed to be able to distinguish between your own personal interests and the duties of the office,” he explained. “Now, sure, every president gets something out of it. Maybe they use it to meet girls [John F Kennedy] or they get a nice Netflix deal [Barack Obama] or they might even use it to score a sweet deal in real estate [Jimmy Carter, who builds Habitat for Humanity houses]. ..... “Ninety-five years old and still building houses – Jimmy Carter is the yin to Trump’s yang,” Meyers continued. “It’s like he has to do a good thing for every bad thing Trump does, one house at a time.” ........ Case in point: CNN reported this week that Trump wants to prematurely open up the US by Easter because he’s bored of isolation. “Hey man, welcome to the club! We’re all stuck inside,” Meyers fumed. ...... Trump has reportedly demonstrated typical symptoms of cabin fever: crashing meetings, inserting himself into conversations and once-ignored briefs. Which means “the answer to the riddle ‘How do you get the president to go to a meeting?’” said Meyers, “is a fucking pandemic”.

Five superpowers ruling the world in 2050 In 30 years, most of the world’s largest economies will be those that are emerging today, surpassing current behemoths such as the US, Japan and Germany. ........ surpassing the US (dropping from 2nd to 3rd), Japan (dropping from 4th to 8th) and Germany (dropping from 5th to 9th). ....... Even relatively smaller economies like Vietnam, the Philippines and Nigeria will see huge leaps in their respective rankings over the next three decades ...... By 2050, India is projected to be the world’s second-largest economy (overtaking the United States) and will account for 15% of the world’s total GDP. ...... Brazil ...This South American powerhouse is set to be the world’s fifth-largest economy by 2050, overtaking Japan, Germany and Russia in the process. ....... “Brazil is one of the world’s giants of mining, agriculture and manufacturing, and it has a strong and rapidly growing service sector. I’m also seeing an increase in tourism investment.” .......... more than 30% of Nigerian residents are new entrepreneurs or the owner-manager of a new business, among the highest rate in the world.

Millions of workers in the US won't be getting stimulus checks Unauthorized workers make up about 5% of the US labor force -- around 7.6 million people...... the coronavirus crisis that's devastated global markets, overwhelmed hospitals and left millions without jobs is having an outsized impact on undocumented workers. Many had service-sector jobs that were decimated by the pandemic. Those who remain employed largely don't have the option of working from home, and are risking their safety to keep supply chains going. ...... because of the threat the novel coronavirus poses, advocates argue this shouldn't be treated as business as usual. In a public health crisis, they say, if someone feels like they can't miss work or can't afford medical care, that impacts the entire community. ....... "From a public health perspective, you cannot have an effective national response to a pandemic that excludes enormous segments of the population. That's both illogical and immoral" ........ more access to testing and emergency medical care for immigrants in the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals and Temporary Protected Status programs. ...... "Everyone's health literally depends on the health of your neighbor. And guess what? Everyone has an immigrant neighbor." ...... "The government is making us invisible. The fact that I'm a person without documents in this country does not mean that I'm not a human being, that I'm not hungry," she says. "The government uses us when it needs us. ... We keep their houses clean, we take care of their children and their elders. And we do it with a lot of love."

The next financial crisis: A collapse of the mortgage system
Coronavirus measures could cause global food shortage, UN warns
70 million people in the US are under a severe weather threat that includes tornadoes and hail
Coronavirus live news: confirmed cases around the world pass 600,000
Trump tweets blame in all directions over ventilators for coronavirus, except at himself
Coronavirus Is A Defining Test And American Government Is Failing It It’s not just Trump. Our politics are unfit for this calamity.
Teen who may have died of coronavirus was turned away from urgent care due to lack of insurance
Gavin Newsom takes new tone with Trump as he steers California during coronavirus crisis
Not wearing masks to protect against coronavirus is a ‘big mistake,’ top Chinese scientist says
New York may be weeks away from reaching a peak in coronavirus cases. Now other states are preparing for surges
Public health expert: ‘Coronavirus is going to hit every city in America’

Imagine FDR Delegating World War II To Governors

World War II did not go to every country on earth. This pandemic has. World War II did not freeze national economies and supply chains, although there were unmistakable disruptions. My point is, on scale, this is big. World War II seems to be the only available metaphor. But that is like using earth as a metaphor to talk about Jupiter. Jupiter is also a planet, alright.

And Trump has been botching it.
  • He spent precious weeks in denial. He was going to tweet the pandemic away. 
  • A nationwide lockdown lasting three weeks would have been the least disruptive economically and the most effective medically. When testing everyone is not an option, putting everyone in isolation for three weeks is enough time for the infected to start showing symptoms and qualify for further self-isolation. 
  • Just like FDR needed airplanes in huge numbers, this pandemic is asking for supplies: masks, gloves, ventilators, hospital beds. This pandemic would be a good reason to call a truce on the trade war with China. China seems to have an immediate capacity to produce those things plenty. If not, the wartime act for this needed to be put to practice. Domestic production needed to be ramped up. 
  • Trump is in a hurry to get America back to work. Because if the economy does not go back to pre-pandemic, he is toast in November. The fastest way to get America back to work is through widespread testing. Everyone who needs to or wants to get tested should be able to get tested with results showing up within the hour. Then you become much better at identifying and isolating people. And the rest can go to work. 
  • But is is already late. The sky has already fallen. The unemployment numbers already have passed Depression levels. Numerous businesses have already gone belly up. 
  • With Trump not only is the national dimension missing, but the global dimension is also missing. This pandemic is global. Only a coordinated global dimension will work. In the aftermath of 9/11 the FBI and the CIA learned to work together. Now national governments will have to learn that same lesson. Otherwise you are looking at massive deaths and massive economic disruption. 
  • Trump is unfit for the moment. He has failed to rise to the occasion. Trump has botched it bigly.

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Friday, March 27, 2020

Coronavirus News (18)

Cuomo: Not sure if closing all businesses, keeping everyone home was 'the best public health strategy'
How small-business owners and the self-employed can take advantage of the coronavirus stimulus package Congress recently passed a $2 trillion stimulus package, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Securities Act (CARES), that includes expanding unemployment insurance to self-employed workers and independent contractors. The bill extends unemployment benefits for 13 more weeks and also includes an additional $600 a week on top of state unemployment benefits for up to four months. The rate of state pay may be less for self-employed, independent contractors, and freelance workers........ Network, network, network: “The worst thing you can do right now is stop communicating” ....... “Talk to your clients, talk to your audience. Put out the word on Facebook that you’re still open for business.” ....... Now is a good time to make changes. Think about ways to operate more efficiently. Review your marketing materials and see what needs updating. Think about your technology and social media accounts. And consider the future and what updates you’ll need to make to your business to address the new way of life after a pandemic ....... Consider a side hustle like online tutoring or making deliveries. Or take an aspect of your own business and shape it into something people need now. “Advertise locally and drum up some extra cash for things people are craving during this time of being shut in and distanced from others”

Indian migrant workers could undermine the world's largest lockdown India may still have fewer than 1,000 cases but the fear of pandemic has caused panic buying and attacks on front line medical staff. ...... Doctors and nurses in the capital New Delhi told CNN that they have been ostracized and discriminated against by their communities over fears that they could bring home the virus after work. Some doctors have even been threatened with eviction or having their electricity cut off....... "Many doctors are now stranded on the roads with all their luggage, nowhere to go, across the country," said one letter from the Resident Doctors' Association of New Delhi's All India Institute of Medical Sciences to the Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

How the Covid-19 recession could become a depression

As the Covid-19 pandemic worsens, it’s hard to decide which are scarier: the conversations I’m having with epidemiologists or the conversations I’m having with economists.

....... The mistake the US made in 2008 was not spending enough. We underestimated the size of the output gap, and then passed a stimulus too small to fill it. When the Obama administration returned to Congress for more fiscal ammunition, Republicans refused, and the recovery limped rather than roared. ......... There’s only one equilibrium: It’s economic inactivity until the danger passes.” ........ There will be at least four waves of economic pain, he told me, each building on the last. Wave one is “the sudden stop,” the unexpected cessation of economic activity all across the country ....... When the economy stops, and GDP plummets, workers lose their jobs. That, Zandi said, is wave two, and “it’s coming very quickly.” ....... On Sunday, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said unemployment could reach 30 percent, and GDP could drop by 50 percent. ...... The third wave, according to Zandi, will be “all these folks who’ve seen their nest egg wiped out. They thought they were set for retirement and they’re not. They’ll go into panic mode.” ....... Wave four, Zandi continues, will see businesses cut investment. ........ But if the virus is brought under control in May, and Congress passes enough stimulus, Zandi, and other forecasters, think powerful catch-up growth in the third and fourth quarters is possible. Perhaps this could be

a “V-shaped” recession: a sharp drop followed by a swift recovery

. ........ The nightmare scenario is that the virus isn’t under control by the summer, and extreme social distancing measures are needed throughout the year ....... the ground could collapse underneath the economy. ....... Another possibility is a financial crisis, in which the markets for corporate debt or government bonds or international currency flows lock up, and create a contagion of their own. Already we’re seeing signs of strain: strange movements in municipal bond markets, shortages of dollars, and corporate debt markets. If any of these collapse into panic, we could add a 2008-style financial crisis atop our 2020-style economic and public health crisis. If that happens, says Zandi, “then you get into very dark scenarios — you start getting three, four, five years of financial pain.” ....... “It’s not cyclical unemployment. It’s quarantine unemployment. Businesses aren’t allowed to operate. People aren’t allowed to be out of their home. The idea that if you just give people money it’ll somehow prevent the unemployment rate from skyrocketing makes no sense. No amount of demand stimulus will get people to go to restaurants if they’re closed.” ........ delivering up to $18,000 to families of four and sustaining the aid so long as the public health emergency continues or unemployment is elevated ....... the closest comparison to the economy we’re creating now is the economy of World War II: The government was spending huge amounts of money on the war effort, but wages were suppressed, goods were rationed, the public was pressured into buying bonds, and social norms discouraged excessive consumption. ......... If those businesses collapse in mass numbers, then even when the health risks pass, the labor market will be in shambles, as there won’t be jobs for workers to return to. ......... In a more imaginative country, with a more ambitious and capable political system, crisis could become opportunity: This could be the moment to pass a true Green New Deal, taking advantage of cheap money and idle workers to solve perhaps the central problem of our future. If this economy must collapse, perhaps we could build something better, fairer, more sustainable in its place. “I hope this will cause a seismic political change,” says Sen. Bennet. “I think this is going to make us realize we need to invest again in America.”

This calculator tells you exactly how big your coronavirus stimulus check could be
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'It’s what was happening in Italy': the hospital at the center of New York's Covid-19 crisis New York is the center of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States, and Elmhurst hospital in the New York City borough of Queens is the center of the center. ...... the medical examiner’s office has stationed a refrigerated trailer to act as a makeshift morgue. ...... there were 23,112 Covid-19 cases in New York City alone ....... The hospital is located in one of the poorest and most diverse areas of the city, home to 20,000 recent immigrants from 112 different countries. It was already operating at 80% capacity before the coronavirus pandemic ....... In the Elmhurst and the

nearby Corona neighborhood

, one in four people lack health insurance. One in four live in poverty. ..... “Doctors describe scenes in apocalyptic terms. Patients are reportedly dying in the emergency room still waiting for a bed. Residents line the block, standing inside barricades and in the rain waiting to get tested.”

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Coronavirus News (17)

Up to 10 per cent of recovered coronavirus patients in Wuhan study tested positive later, doctors say Hospital staff in the city say there is no evidence that these patients became infectious after recovery ....... Tests carried out on patients suggest between 3 to 10 per cent gave positive tests after being discharged ......... The Chinese mainland, where the disease first emerged last December, has discharged over 90 percent of its infected patients ........

about 5 to 10 per cent of their recovered patients tested positive again.

....... These incidents have raised questions about whether nucleic acid tests might not be reliable in detecting traces of the virus in some of the recovered patients. ........ the five patients from his hospital who tested positive again did not have any symptoms, and none of their family members or people in close contact with them has been infected. ...... no conclusive evidence to prove that the recovered patients who tested positive again would be infectious to others......... the patients have developed antibodies that were effective in protecting them from the nucleic acid of the virus

A third of coronavirus cases may be ‘silent carriers’, classified Chinese data suggests A patient usually develops symptoms in five days, though the incubation period can be as long as three weeks in some rare cases. ........

The United States, Britain and Italy simply do not test people without symptoms

....... The approach taken by China and South Korea of testing anyone who has had close contact with a patient – regardless of whether the person has symptoms – may explain why the two Asian countries seem to have checked the spread of the virus. Hong Kong is extending testing to airport arrivals in the city, even if travellers have no symptoms. Meanwhile in most European countries and the US, where only those with symptoms are tested, the number of infections continues to rapidly rise. ......... An EU report has put the proportion of asymptomatic cases in Italy at 44 per cent ...... “Of course it is hard to say if they may be less infectious if they don’t cough. But there are also droplets when you speak,” he said, referring to how the respiratory virus is transmitted.

Thousands of covert coronavirus cases go under the radar in Wuhan, Chinese-led researchers say 59 per cent of infections were asymptomatic or mild enough not to attract medical attention ........ The researchers used lab tests as the basis of their assessment rather than Chinese government data on confirmed cases because the authorities used symptomatic manifestations and abnormal lung scans to classify patients......

China’s public data of confirmed cases does not reflect asymptomatic cases.

........ the total number of infections citywide on February 18 could have exceeded 125,000. ....... Wuhan reported 38,020 confirmed cases on February 18. .......... over one-third of laboratory-confirmed cases in China were silent carriers who were either asymptomatic or presymptomatic. By February 29, authorities had recorded more than 43,000 silent carriers, who had tested positive but did not show symptoms.

Coronavirus latest: more than 21,000 dead as UN warns of threat to ‘whole of humanity’

More than three billion people are living under lockdown measures

as soaring death tolls in Europe and the US underlined a United Nations warning that the coronavirus, which has now infected nearly half a million people globally, threatens all of humanity. ....... an appeal for US$2 billion to help the world’s poor. ........ “Global action and solidarity are crucial. Individual country responses are not going to be enough.” ......... Donald Trump has voiced hope the US will be “raring to go” by mid-April, but his optimism appeared to stand almost alone among world leaders. ........ Russia will halt all international flights from midnight on Friday under a government decree ........ Russia needed to be ready for an “Italian scenario” ........ “We have saved up for a rainy day. The Covid-19 pandemic is already a mighty storm, and is still growing.” ....... a strong chance the new coronavirus could return in seasonal cycles ....... the virus was beginning to take root in the southern hemisphere, where winter is on its way. ........ Spain 47,600 total cases. Its 3,434 deaths only trail Italy’s death toll as the hardest-hit countries in the world. The parliament met with fewer than 50 of its 350 members in the chamber, with the rest voting from home to reduce the risk of contagion.........

Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro has warned of possible “chaos” and the “looting” of supermarkets if state shutdowns ordered by the governors of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro aren’t ended.

....... Bolsonaro, who has repeatedly scoffed at the severity of the deadly pandemic, had previously criticised the closing of schools and businesses in Sao Paulo and Rio states, two of the country’s most populous states. .......... Germany has boosted its coronavirus test rate to 500,000 a week .......... The new borrowing of €€156 billion (US$169 billion) is equivalent to half of the country’s normal annual spending... The country, which tightened lockdown measures this week, has about 32,700 cases and more than 150 deaths.......

The governor of a state in central Mexico is arguing that the poor are “immune” to the new coronavirus

........ Barbosa also appeared to be playing on an old stereotype held by some Mexicans that poor sanitation standards may have strengthened their immune systems by exposing them to bacteria or other bugs. ......... There is no scientific evidence to suggest the poor are in any way immune to the virus that is causing Covid-19 disease around the world. ....... Japan will ban entry from 21 European countries as well as Iran ........ Similar steps are in place for visitors from China, South Korea, most of Europe and the United States. ....... The Australian government scrapped a time limit on haircuts following a backlash. .......

India’s government announced a 1.7 trillion rupee (US$22.6 billion) stimulus package

......... India is on a total lockdown for three weeks from Wednesday in the world’s biggest isolation effort

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The last two weeks I’ve stayed inside. When I returned from my trip around Central Europe I isolated myself (in a borrowed apartment away from my mother and sister) since the number of cases of COVID-19 (in Germany for instance) were similar to Italy in the beginning. Around ten days ago I started feeling some symptoms, exactly the same time as my father - who traveled with me from Brussels. I was feeling tired, had shivers, a sore throat and coughed. My dad experienced the same symptoms, but much more intense and with a fever. In Sweden you can not test yourself for COVID-19 unless you’re in need of emergent medical treatment. Everyone feeling ill are told to stay at home and isolate themselves. I have therefore not been tested for COVID-19, but it’s extremely likely that I’ve had it, given the combined symptoms and circumstances. Now I’ve basically recovered, but - AND THIS IS THE BOTTOM LINE: I almost didn’t feel ill. My last cold was much worse than this! Had it not been for someone else having the virus simultainously I might not even have suspected anything. Then I would just have thought I was feeling unusually tired with a bit of a cough. And this it what makes it so much more dangerous. Many (especially young people) might not notice any symptoms at all, or very mild symptoms. Then they don’t know they have the virus and can pass it on to people in risk groups. We who don’t belong to a risk group have an enormous responsibility, our actions can be the difference between life and death for many others. Please keep that in mind, follow the advice from experts and your local authorities and #StayAtHome to slow the spread of the virus. And remember to always take care of each other and help those in need. #COVID #flattenthecurve

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After Xi’s China and Trump’s America, Modi’s India is stepping up to battle the coronavirus

A nation-wide 21-day curfew has been imposed that will affect almost 1.3 billion people.

.......... “There will be a total ban on venturing out of your homes.” ....... Panic buying of food and essential goods has ensued across India ....... given the vast number of Indians at the poverty line or below it, considerable social unrest is expected. ......... experts warn that rapid community transmission could queer the pitch very quickly and some dire exigencies have been outlined – including fatalities in the million plus. ...... His call for a regional Covid-19 effort is pertinent, given that South Asia is home to 1.8 billion people, or a fifth of the global population, but has very inadequate public health infrastructures. ......... Modi’s call for collective deliberation to deal with the pandemic has been endorsed by other leaders, and has encouraged G20 chair Saudi Arabia to convene a video summit on Thursday. .......... the United Nations Security Council is in near paralysis due to the stand-off between China and the United States over Covid-19. ........ Along with China and the US, India is one of the world’s three most populous nations and the next 21 days will be critical in determining which coronavirus scenario will play out in the world’s largest democracy. .......... almost 70 years ago, a fledgling and newly independent India was a valuable mediator in the Korean war, between Washington, Moscow and Beijing. .......... The coronavirus challenge needs the major powers to cooperate and pool their resources and expertise. Perhaps Modi can catalyse a constructive Trump-Xi pandemic dialogue

Coronavirus: India’s worst-case scenario is two in 10 people infected but most cases would be mild The actual outcome depends on whether India’s transmission pattern will be similar to the grim situation in Italy and Iran ......... India is in no different a position than the US or the UK ........ for India – where people live in jam-packed cities and commute in heavily crowded public transport with little to no understanding of social distancing – having 300 million people ill, with six to eight million requiring intensive medical treatment, would strain its healthcare system. ........ the real number is significantly higher due to a lack of widespread testing ........ The railway network, India’s commuter lifeline which carries about 9 billion passengers annually, suspended all its passenger trains until the end of March. ......... “community transmission” would have occurred in India at least three weeks ago and thousands of people have since been transmitting the virus unknowingly. ........ “You have 22,500 deaths happening in India every day and they’re all imperfectly measured. Let’s say we have 1,000 more additional deaths in the country because of Covid-19. Our systems are not sensitive enough to pick that up” .......... “It is called a black swan event for a reason which you cannot prepare for. It’s out of the blue and totally unexpected” ........... the entire country’s ICU bed capacity is between 70,000 and 100,000 but if the outbreak hits the peak of its curve, those with severe infections could hit a few million within a short period. ....... “This [the outbreak] is going to test three things about us: our health system capacity; our system of governance on how much people listen to what the government is saying; and our social fabric, whether people are going to help each other or it’s a free-for-all when everything breaks out.”

Coronavirus: India’s lockdowns are a matter of life and death for its 450 million informal workers The sector makes up some 90 per cent of the country’s workforce and about half its GDP, but has no income security and only limited health care access ........... As Prime Minister Modi looks to curb the spread of the outbreak, some of these workers are facing weeks without pay, housing or food .......... On Saturday, New Delhi and Mumbai saw overcrowded railway stations and bus stops as people who had been laid off or were simply unable to find work were forced to return to their native villages, putting them at risk of infection. ........ On Saturday, Ajmal Khan, a construction worker from Uttar Pradesh, was asked not to come to work the next day. The 54-year-old, who had been living at a construction site in Noida city, was also ordered to vacate the premises. ...... “We understand what the government is doing is for our own benefit. I don’t want to get sick,” she said. “But the government should have made some arrangements before making such an announcement. Or at least given us time to prepare.” ........

the slum – which houses over 500 families – does not even have a water supply for people to regularly wash their hands.

......... “We are faced with people who have a hand-to-mouth existence with no savings and no ability to tide things over for a month or two. People can die of hunger before they catch the virus.” ......... Uttar Pradesh will provide cash transfers of 1,000 rupees ($13.50) per month to more than 3.5 million day labourers and construction workers.

Bungled, chaotic White House response to coronavirus discredits Trump, but won’t stop the US winning the Covid-19 fight The US president’s apparent reluctance to use emergency powers to ramp up production of critical medical supplies and equipment puts lives at risk ....... No one knows if it’s too late to stop the worst of the tsunami-like wave to come.

By the end of March, if current rates of growth do not drop significantly, the US will have more than double China’s official total.

....... N95 masks that are essential protective equipment now cost US$7 each, up from US$4 only days ago and a mere 85 cents before the crisis began. ......... When criticism began to mount, Trump said some of these masks could simply be sanitised and reused. .... A number of US firms already make this equipment. They could be encouraged, through guaranteed government contracts, to manufacture on a truly wartime footing, 24 hours a day, seven days a week, cranking out reliable equipment with the necessary quality standards they already achieve. ......... People are dying and many more will be dying soon, all while the White House wastes precious time with a confusing array of uncoordinated crisis responses. ........ It’s a phenomenal abrogation of responsibility to just let market forces run amok in a health crisis like this.

Coronavirus quarantine in India: no tests, stained toilets and broken beds force some to flee Some people have fled quarantine centres in India, complaining of inadequate facilities and the risk of getting the Covid-19 illness ...... But the Indian government says it is complying with WHO rules and improving facilities, saying old pictures are being circulated