अगर बिहार में बीजेपी हार जाती है

(Sitting L to R)Rajendra Prasad and Anugrah Narayan Sinha during Mahatama Gandhi's 1917 Champaran Satyagraha (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

अगर बिहार में बीजेपी हार जाती है तो इसका मतलब ये नहीं होगा कि मोदी पर से बिहार के लोगों का विश्वास उठ गया है। वो तो २०१९ में पता चलेगा। Bihari voters are smart. They know the difference between a central government and a state government. They are not like the media people who keep making it sound like this 2015 election in Bihar is a referendum on Modi.

जो मोदी को मैंडेट मिला है वो लोगों ने पाँच साल के लिए दिया हुवा है। २०१९ तक he is good. 

नीतिश कुमार और नरेंद्र मोदी: दोनों के दोनों

The Bihari voters are smart. They can opt to get Nitish at the state level, and keep Modi at the center again in 2019. The Bihari voters know the difference between a central government and a state government. नीतिश कुमार और नरेंद्र मोदी: दोनों के दोनों। एक साथ।

Nitish could be brilliant in power in Patna, and brilliant in opposition at the national level, and Sushil Modi could be brilliant in opposition in Patna. लोकतंत्र में Opposition का भी बहुत बड़ा महत्त्व होता है। ये भारत है, चीन तो नहीं।

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नरेंद्र मोदी, नीतिश कुमार, सुशील मोदी, अमिताभ बच्चन

हम किसे मानते हैं? मोदी को या फिर नीतिश को? हम तो भारत के जनता को मानते हैं। हम तो लोकतंत्र को मानते हैं। मोदी और नीतिश से उपर हैं भारत, भारतकी जनता, और लोकतंत्र। अमिताभ को मानते हैं, लेकिन वे भी तो भारत के लोगों द्वारा दिया हुवा तोहफा है मेरे लिए। नरेंद्र मोदी, नीतिश कुमार, सुशील मोदी, अमिताभ बच्चन।

वैसे I am lucky, I have been gifted with sound political instincts. तो मैं मोदी या नीतिश जैसे लोगों को ऐसे गहरी दिलचस्पी से देखता हुँ as if I am watching a game of World Cup Soccer. That is nothing to do with being Indian. That is about being political. I don't watch rugby, or basketball, or baseball, or even cricket. There was no cricket in the Nepal I grew up in. I watch Indian politics. It is my sport to watch. बहुत दिलचस्प है। India is easily the most interesting democracy in the world.

Bihar Is Now 55-45

For Nitish and Laloo to come together and for Laloo to agree to declaring Nitish the chief ministerial candidate: these two developments have boosted Nitish' prospects, but it might still not be enough to take him past the finish line. This prevents a total wipeout like in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. But if the BJP manages to rope in both Jitan and Pappu, both of whom are opposed to Nitish, it suddenly starts looking 60-40 or better for the BJP.

The wild card here is not who will ally with whom but respecting that all elections are about the future. What will Nitish do over the next five years? If he goes on the Give Me My Wages tangent like in 2014, he will lose, possibly decisively.

Nitish is more charismatic than Sushil Modi who still acts like he is trying to get away from under Nitish' shadow. Otherwise SuMo has a legitimate claim that he was crucial - indispensable - to Nitish giving seven excellent years as Chief Minister. It was the BJP that administered the road and health departments which showed some of the best work.

Sushil Modi should tell the people of Bihar what he will do over the next five years.

One of these two will become Chief Minister, the other will be Opposition Leader.

Another wild card is PM Modi. If he makes enough campaign stops, he will make a bad situation worse for Nitish. A victory in Bihar gives NaMo greater leg room in the Rajya Sabha, gives him a political boost nationally as he starts his second year, and brightens his prospects for Uttar Pradesh, a twice big a prize, and one that would cure all his Upper House woes. It is like NaMo needs the Bihar victory more than SuMo does. So expect him to campaign hard and make life miserable for Nitish.

बिहार के उभरते चेहरे

Bihar: My Projections
बिहार में आम की राजनीति
सुशील मोदी क्या कह रहे हैं?
Sushil Modi In Janakpurdham
मोदी के चाय दोकान पे चर्चा
बिहार के लिए फोर्मुला

औरत एक भी नहीं --- ये तो प्रॉब्लम हो गयी। 

Bihar: My Projections

It was advantage Modi during the Lok Sabha election last year. It was advantage Nitish during the bypolls that followed. But much has changed since then. Nitish has lost Jitan Majhi and Laloo has lost Pappu Yadav. Not only has Nitish lost Jitan Majhi, he has lost him to the BJP camp.

बिहार में आम की राजनीति

If it were the BJP, Paswan and Kushwaha one one side, and Nitish, Laloo, Congress, NCP, Left, Jitan, Pappu on the other side, it was a 50-50 contest with a slight advantage to the BJP still. That was the case during the bypolls, but that is no longer the case. Pappu is in neither camp right now.

So right now, the way I see it, it is Advantage Sushil Modi.

But that is if Nitish and Laloo manage to stick together. If they contest separately, the BJP sweep of the state might mirror its sweep during the Lok Sabha elections last year.

Sushil Modi In Janakpurdham
Janakpur Patna Kolkata Industrial Corridor
बिहार के लिए फोर्मुला
World, India, Bihar
The Next Chief Minister Of Bihar?

A nightmare scenario for Nitish would be if even Pappu decides to join the BJP led front. At that point it is a no contest. It will be a clear BJP sweep.

Nitish gave seven excellent years to Bihar, उसके बाद उन्होने अडवाणी के लिए आत्म दाह कर लिया।

The BJP has declared a desire to contest 185 seats, Paswan wants 60, Kushwaha 40, Jitan wants 40, Pappu is open to being part of the alliance. Considering there are only 245 seats available, they might go for a 130-35-25-30-25 kind of split.

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सुशील मोदी क्या कह रहे हैं?

ये मैं समझा नहीं। सुशील मोदी यहाँ क्या कह रहे हैं?

Sushil Modi In Janakpurdham

Photographs by Santosh Bhagat

Janakpur Patna Kolkata Industrial Corridor
बिहार के लिए फोर्मुला
The Next Chief Minister Of Bihar?

Sushil Modi

The Next Chief Minister Of Bihar?

The Next Chief Minister Of Bihar?

जनता परिवार के भितर इतना ज्यादा कुश्ताकुश्ती चल रहा है कि नितीश की नैया डुबती नजर आ रही है। जनता परिवार वाले तो soap opera पर उतर आए हैं। जनता परिवार वाले १००-१००-४५ के फोर्मुला पर आ जाते हैं तो अभी भी थोड़ा वक्त बचा है। दुसरे कैंप में भी थोड़ा बहुत खिंचा तानी तो है। बीजेपी २००, राम विलास ६५, कुशवाहा ४० पर दावा कर रहे हैं। ३०५ नहीं २४५ सीट उपलब्ध हैं।

What I am noticing in his profile:

• His science background: botany student, and a topper. अधिकांश लोग को यूनिवर्सिटी में फेल होने के बाद राजनीति में जाते हैं। 
• Early love for computers and programming languages, precisely what Bihar needs. Turn the state into the Silicon Plains. नालंदा को फिर से दुनिया का top यूनिवर्सिटी बना दो। बिलकुल संभव है। 
• He got on Atal Bihari Vajpayee's personal radar before holding any elected office. That is mesmerizing. Atal is also the one who sent the other Modi to Gujrat as Chief Minister. Impressive man. 
• So the BJP has had the road department in the Nitish government? I did not know. Good roads have been the most visible aspect of the Nitish-BJP government in Bihar. I guess SuMo can take some credit. Fair enough. 

BJP's Vote Winner

Reaching out to people through Facebook on his iPhone ...... In his second term as Bihar Deputy Chief Minister, the 59-year-old has started holding janata darbars where he meets a stream of visitors. He has egged on bjp cadres into contesting the Panchayat polls in Bihar and supported Anna Hazare on the Lokpal bill. Sushil Modi also hit the campaign trail in Assam......... the eternal quest to break new ground-editing his Wikipedia profile being his latest labour. He has a mountain of information: 19 months in jail during the Emergency; 3,113 votes his first victory margin .......

the man who discovered Bihar for the BJP

...... writing crisp replies to e-mails on his BlackBerry or editing the 524-page Economic Survey of Bihar on his Apple iPad, he is constantly dusting off everything that represents him in the outside world....... A Google search yields 3.45 lakh results on Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi in response to "politician Modi" as against 1.42 lakh for Sushil Modi. The two Modis share the same rss ideology and practice. ...... Sushil Modi-the unremitting leader of the Opposition for eight years in Bihar during the Lalu-Rabri regime-was just an able second-in-command, a facilitator but never a face...... Sushil Modi, the permanent "second fiddle", finally produced music in the November 2010 Bihar Assembly elections-BJP won 91 of the 102 seats it contested with an unprecedented strike rate of 90 per cent...... With Muslims voting for the party in almost all constituencies, the BJP seems to have regained the secular trust that it had lost post-2002. The nda that lost a government in Delhi after Gujarat is now harbouring hopes of stitching a new one after the Bihar verdict...... Having won three consecutive Assembly polls from the Patna Central seat-each time his victory margin increased by over 20,000 votes-where the majority of 70,000 Muslim voters always stood by him ...... In the beginning of NDA-1 in November 2005, Sushil Modi and other BJP leaders successfully bargained for some of the most visible ministries like road, urban development and health. With Sushil Modi manning the finances, these departments did very well and bolstered the saffron prospects........ State BJP chief C.P. Thakur had threatened to pull out in the middle of the poll campaign over ticket distribution. Leading the party then was fraught with difficulties-the closer to the finishing line he got, the harder, more nerve-racking it became......... In 1973, prior to the crucial graduation examination in Patna University, he quit all socio-political activities despite being the general secretary of the student's union.

Many expected him to fail because Botany was difficult and he had hardly attended classes. He came second in the entire university

....... In 1977, when 55 young JP activists were elected as MLAs in Bihar, Sushil Modi preferred self-abnegation and stayed with the Akhil Bhartiya Vidyarthi Parishad, away from a political career.......

Life changed with his marriage to Jessie George-a Roman Catholic he met during a train journey to Mumbai-on April 13, 1986. bjp patriarch Atal Bihari Vajpayee, to whom he had just sent a formal invitation letter, travelled on his own to Patna for the wedding where he urged Sushil Modi to join active politics.

........ In 1988, Sushil Modi borrowed Rs.56,000 from a bank to start a computer training institute where he and his wife taught students basic and cobol languages. "Business was never my cup of tea. I was restless because I was away from my social life," he says. In 1990 when the bjp fielded him from Patna Central seat, a Congress bastion, he defeated sitting Congress legislator Akil Haider. He never looked back....... the June 2008 secret ballot after a group of BJP leaders challenged his leadership. He won with a convincing majority to continue as the deputy chief minister. Earlier in November 2005, a group of party leaders had resisted his becoming the deputy chief minister. He was a Lok Sabha member and his opponents wanted him to be just that. A majority of party legislators supported him and he was back in Patna. In the wake of the November 2010 election results, nobody asked Sushil Modi to take a test. He is now the new textbook.

बिहार का मामला

बिहार में नीतिश का पोजीशन दिल्ली में केजरी के जैसा नहीं है --- फिर भी मजबुत तो है। २०१४ में प्रधान मंत्री पद के लिए मोदी के अलावे और कोइ लड़ ही नहीं रहा था। मैदान में कोइ और था ही नहीं। अभी बिहार में नीतिश अकेले कैंडिडेट हैं मुख्य मंत्री के। बीजेपी का कोइ कैंडिडेट नहीं है। जितन तो सिर्फ वोट काट्ने के फिराक में हैं। उनको लोभ है कि हंग असेंबली आ जाए किसी तरह तो बीजेपी वाले शायद भाव दें, अभी तो नहीं दे रहे हैं।

नीतिश ने शायद गलती की --- जब वो २०१३ में बीजेपी से बिहार में टुट गए। उसके बाद गलती किए मुख्य मंत्री पद से इस्तीफा दे दिया। दो दो बार जनता के मैंडेट का अपमान हुवा। अभी भी नवीन का लाइन मेरे को ठीक लग रहा है। वो knee jerk opposition के पक्ष में नहीं हैं। कांग्रेस के पास दुसरा ऑप्शन नहीं हैं। उनको तो knee jerk opposition ही करना होगा। लोकतंत्र का असुल है। लेकिन नवीन उसमें नहीं फँसना चाहते। वो thoughtful opposition का रोल अदा करना चाहते हैं।

नीतिश क्या चाहते हैं? वो चाहते थे मोदी न आवे, आडवाणी आवे, हिन्दु rate of growth को बरक़रार रखे। बीजेपी ने आडवाणी को sideline किया तो इन्होने पगड़ी पहना दी मुलायम को। बीजेपी में अडवाणी और जनता परिवार में मुलायम --- दोनों ही हिन्दु rate of growth वाले हैं।

ये आश्चर्य की बात है। नीतिश खुद development man हैं। फिर?

बिल क्लिंटन का कहना है ---- all elections are about the future. पिछे जो किए सो किए। अब आगे क्या करेंगे -- ये नीतिश को कहना है।

Laloo was the best Railway Minister India ever had. लालु ने १,००० साल पुरानी कास्ट सिस्टम को चैलेंज किया, छोटी मोटी बात नहीं है। उनके समय के शिक्षा मंत्री, और कितने सालों से उनके पार्टी के बिहार यूनिट के प्रमुख (एक ही तो स्टेट यूनिट है) मेरे मामा लगेंगे: रामचन्द्र पुर्वे। मेरी पैदाइश बिहार की है --- दरभंगा।

Nitish has been the best Bihari Chief Minister of my lifetime. But he is about to face his toughest election since 2005.

बिहार का मामला पेंचीदा है। Right now I think it is 50-50. It could go either way.

लेकिन सिर्फ सुशासन कहने से नहीं होगा। विकास का भविष्यमुखी एजेंडा देना होगा जनता को।

२०१४ में बिहार के लोगों ने मोदी को वोट दिया -- गलती नहीं किया। मोदी अच्छा काम कर रहे हैं।

In the market the consumer is always right. That is the premise. In an election, the voters are always right. That has to be the premise.

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बिहार, उत्तर प्रदेश और मोदी/BJP

AAP के दिल्ली sweep करने के बाद मेरे को लगा शायद AAP बीजेपी को २०१७ में UP में challenge कर सके। लेकिन AAP के भितर जो infighting का दौर चला है उससे मेरे को लगने लगा है २०१७ में BJP २०१४ के तरह फिर से UP sweep करेगी। SP का तो बुरा हाल है। जनता परिवार एक हो रही है, ये लोकतंत्र के लिए अच्छी बात है। क्योंकि वो जब फुटे थे तो गलत सतही कारन से फुटे थे। अब एक हो रहे हैं। क्यों कि रास्ता नहीं दिख रहा है। मोदी ने २०१४ में भारत के राजनीति में बहुतो को endangered species बना दिया।

जनता परिवार नीतिश के नेतृत्वमें एक होते तो लगता चलो ये भी development man हैं। लेकिन मुलायम थके हुवे लोग हैं। BJP में आडवाणी, जनता परिवार में मुलायम -- दोनो थके हुवे लोग हैं। Private sector में दोनों को retirement मिल गइ होती। नीतिश को बुरा लगा कि आडवाणी का जगह मोदी ने क्यों ले लिया? इसीलिये वो अपना जगह मुलायम को दे रहे हैं। नीतिश के कारण मुलायम को उत्तर प्रदेश में जित न भी मिल सकती है, लेकिन ये गारंटी है कि मुलायम से नीतीशको बिहार में घाटा है नाफा कोइ नहीं। मुलायम क्लियर कट Non Development Man रहे हैं। उत्तर प्रदेश को मुलायम ने गरीब नहीं बनाया, उत्तर प्रदेश पहले से गरीब राज्य था। लेकिन उस गरीब उत्तर प्रदेश को मुलायम ने ऊँचा भी तो नहीं पहुँचाया। ज्यों का त्यों छोड़ दिया। एक मंडल wave था देश में --- तब मुलायम आगे आए। लेकिन देश में अब एक development wave है। मोदी खुद जन्मसे तेली, बनिया कास्ट में पैदा हुवा आदमी। यदि Mandal का आज कोइ relevance है तो मोदी खुद उसके चेहरा हैं।

तो अभी मेरे को लग रहा है BJP २०१७ में UP sweep करेगी। (१) UP भारतका heartland state है। (२) अब तो UP मोदी का home state हुवा। वाराणसी से MP हैं वो। (३) राज्य सभा में अपना ताकत बढ़ाने के लिए BJP के लिए UP में राज्य सरकार बनाना बहुत जरुरी है।

भारत को Third World Country बनाने में UP और बिहार का बहुत बड़ा हाथ है। जनसंख्या दोनों का इतना ज्यादा है। गरीबी इतनी ज्यादी है। नहीं तो गुजरात को देखो तो वो युरोप के  दो चार देशको छोड़ कर बाँकी सबसे आगे है। तो मोदी के सपने के लिए UP, बिहार और Northeast का बहुत बड़ा strategic महत्व है।

UP तो sweep है। Bihar is less clear cut. But there also there are no guarantees Nitish will win. Laloo and Nitish coming together does not necessarily mean they will win. Yahoo and Microsoft coming together on search did not make a dent in Google's market share. The opposite happened. Google's share increased. They might win. But again, they might not.

I think Modi is using the Land Acquisition Bill as a wedge issue to pry open the state governments in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh from his opposition's hands. He will sell the Bill hard on the campaign trail. I mean, he won me!

Bihar later in the year is not like Delhi. In Bihar it is a coin toss right now. It could go either way. And if the tilt is far enough, it might even lead to a sweep.

I am beginning to think perhaps Nitish walking away from the BJP two years back was a bad move. For the first major politician in India to have called Modi a future Prime Minister, he perhaps miscalculated. He might be months away from political retirement. That will be a Shakespearean tragedy. He has been the best Bihari Chief Minister of my lifetime.

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