Wednesday, March 16, 2022

March 16: Ukraine

Six takeaways from Zelensky's address to Congress and Biden's response
Zelenskyy is the leader of the free world now One thing is clear: However halting his English or casual his dress, Zelenskyy is the leader of the free world today. What remains to be seen is how far smaller politicians presiding over much larger nations will follow him.
Zelenskiy wants to shame the west into action. Will it work?
Ukraine's Zelenskyy addresses Congress, invokes 9/11, Pearl Harbor, MLK as he pleads for pivotal aid Zelenskyy tells Congress, 'I call on you to do more'
Russia's state TV hit by stream of resignations When Marina Ovsyannikova burst into Russian living rooms on Monday's nightly news, denouncing the war in Ukraine and propaganda around it, her protest highlighted a quiet but steady stream of resignations from Russia's tightly controlled state-run TV....... Maria Baronova is the highest-profile resignation at RT, formerly known as Russia Today. Former chief editor at RT, she told the BBC's Steve Rosenberg this month Mr Putin had already destroyed Russia's reputation and that the economy was dead too. ....... Russia's German-based state news agency Ruptly has also endured a spate of resignations ...... Russia's number one celebrity couple Alla Pugacheva and Maxim Galkin are among a number of other showbiz figures who have also gone on holiday. Galkin said on Instagram: "There can be no justification for war! No War!"

The Chinese Threat No One Is Talking About — And How to Counter It Washington’s big bet on New Delhi as its ideal military partner in Asia seems to be faltering. Luckily, there are ways to get the relationship back on track. ....... In recent weeks, the U.S. government has grown increasingly concerned China will provide military support to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. ...... But far less attention has been paid to one place where China’s power is quietly rising: the Indian Ocean. ....... Within a decade, China could position itself as the dominant naval power in the critical space stretching from the Malacca Strait to the Bab-el-Mandeb strait. Superiority in the Indian Ocean could enable China to militarily coerce U.S. allies, threaten maritime shipping and even stop the U.S. military from moving through the Indian Ocean in the event of a war in Asia...... the U.S. has concentrated its efforts on East Asia, particularly the possibility of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Another problem, however, is that the U.S. has long assumed India would be a counterweight to China in the Indian Ocean. ...... a deeper partnership with India — the world’s largest democracy, on an upward economic trajectory, seemingly perfectly positioned to counter China on land and at sea — has been something of a holy grail for at least four U.S. administrations. ........ Indian naval and political power in the Indian Ocean region is faltering, giving way to influence by Beijing. Many of these problems are of India’s own making. But part of the problem is the way the U.S. has managed its relationship with New Delhi. The India relationship has become a case study of a partnership between two nations with naturally aligned geostrategic interests that is nonetheless faltering because of a lack of clear priorities, misaligned incentives, and a frequent inability to understand what the other side really wants......... what could be one of the most important security partnerships of the 21st century ...... To check China’s rising influence in the Indian Ocean, Washington needs a comprehensive strategy for the region and a revitalized approach to its partnership with India that prioritizes maritime security, bolsters India’s defense technologies and sets bold expectations for a country whose potential against the China challenge has yet to be realized. ........ China is developing the capabilities to conduct “offensive operations” deep in the Indian Ocean, presumably including naval blockades, bombardment of enemy targets, or even a combination assault by land and sea. ......... What exactly does China want in the Indian Ocean? In the near term, it wants to protect its Middle East oil supplies, the hundreds of thousands of Chinese migrant laborers working abroad and its overseas investments. ........ Part of the reason the Indian Ocean hasn’t received as much attention as it should is that many U.S. defense experts assume or hope they can rely on India to automatically be a “counterweight” to China in this region. For over two decades, Washington has been enamored with the idea that India, at one point exceeding 8 percent economic growth annually, would become a military powerhouse that could “frustrate China’s hegemonic ambitions.” The U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy released in February counts on India to be “a net security provider,” just as previous administrations officially banked on the Indian Navy taking a “leading role in maintaining Indian Ocean security.” Some former Trump administration officials even want to formalize a Japan-style alliance. ........... India has longstanding, well-documented problems of anemic defense budgets, excessive personnel costs and dysfunctional procurement processes. Internal disputes among the military services and a lack of foresight by civilian leadership contributed to an Indian strategy that focused too much on land borders and not enough on air and naval capabilities. ....... Indian officials have made clear that what the country wants most is the transfer and co-development of high-end defense technology with the U.S., not the security guarantees of a mutual defense alliance along the lines of Japan or South Korea. ........ The U.S. has chafed against India’s more independent path — even when this path could help counter China. ....... The U.S. can deepen intelligence-sharing with India (perhaps through a Quad version of “Five Eyes”) as well as military assistance through the foreign military financing and excess defense articles programs (as it has with Egypt and Israel for decades and is considering with Taiwan today). ......... India is the most consequential “global swing state” — its untapped power could decisively tilt the Indo-Pacific balance of power in either direction.

John Cazale Was the Broken Heart of The Godfather Fifty years later, the legendary actor’s performance as Fredo Corleone still resonates, underlining why he was an icon of 1970s cinema. ........ Coppola apparently had a miserable time directing it, but still managed to helm an instant classic. ...... The movie established him as an auteur, reinvigorated Marlon Brando’s career, and turned Pacino from an unknown theater actor into a major movie star. ........ The actor starred in just five films—The Godfather, The Conversation, The Godfather Part II, Dog Day Afternoon, and The Deer Hunter—all classics, all nominated for best-picture Oscars. ......... he was a stage actor who played character roles on film, mostly in works by his friend Coppola and alongside his friend Pacino, with whom he came up in the New York theater scene in the 1960s ....... And what a Fredo he was. His face alone was striking—the dark, heavy brow, the wavy moon of his hairline, the exhausted eyes. Cazale’s face cast a constant shadow over itself ........ Though he charms at the outset, it’s quickly established that Fredo is the throwaway among his brothers. He is constantly at fumbling, anxious odds with Michael’s coldness and Sonny’s confidence. He is the most inept, unable to cultivate a sense of business savvy. His first major act in the film is one of failure: dropping his gun when his father is shot in the street, then wailing over his body when he’s perceived as being dead. ............ “He bungled guarding his father…[but] he loved his father no less than the other brothers. He must feel so responsible for what happens.” ......... In the now famous kiss-of-death scene, Cazale struggles to get out of Michael’s grasp, a fearful expression on his face. Without a word, he communicates layers of terror. ....... His biggest scene arrives soon after, when he and Michael meet in Las Vegas so Michael can tell Fredo the exact terms of his excommunication. The staging is heavy-handed, but lyrical: Michael stands by the window as Fredo lays back in a reclining chair, beneath him. Fredo protests and airs his frustrations, revealing he knows how little his family thinks of him. “I’m your older brother, Mike, and I was stepped over!” Fredo exclaims. “I can handle things! I’m smart! Not like everybody says! Like dumb! I’m smart, and I want respect!” ......... Cazale delivers the entire scene from the chair, flailing like a fish above water. Dying, but not yet dead. He’s physically and metaphorically situated below Pacino, who looks down at Fredo like a funeral guest gazing upon the body. Another actor draped over that chair—a bouncy, unruly scene partner—might have been daunted, their capability hampered by the limitations of the set design. Cazale, however, makes it an inextricable part of his performance. When he’s done with his ranting and raving, he just lies there, flat and exhausted, his face a picture of defeat. .......... “He was maniacal about the work,” added Meryl Streep, who costarred with Cazale in The Deer Hunter and was his girlfriend from 1976 until his death from cancer in 1978. “I was more glib and ready to pick the first idea that came to me. And he would say, ‘There’s a lot of other possibilities…’” ......... What they all shared was his depth of presence and his curious choices, rendering his moments onscreen with a strange spark. “John was there. He occupied space,” Pacino once said, trying to explain his friend’s inexplicable talent. The Godfather was the film that started it all, dropping Cazale into the center of the frame and letting him do the rest.

U.S. sending Switchblade drones to Ukraine in $800 million package The Switchblade is a small, light drone that can loiter in the air for up to 30 minutes before being directed to its target by an operator on the ground, dozens of miles away. ....... the “tactical” drones, which crash into their targets, represents a new phase of weaponry being sent to Ukraine by the U.S., which so far has shipped mostly anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. ......... The drone is launched from a tube, like a mortar shell. Its real-time GPS guidance allows a service member in the field to fly it until the moment it crashes and explodes into whatever the target might be. ....... Slovakia had preliminarily agreed to transfer their S-300s to Ukraine. ........ the new $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine, which also includes 800 more Stinger anti-aircraft systems, 2,000 anti-armor Javelins, 1,000 light anti-armor weapons and 6,000 AT-4 anti-armor systems. The AT-4 is a lightweight recoilless rifle already used by American special operations forces. ........ Kyiv specifically has asked the U.S. and allies for more Stingers and Starstreak man-portable air-defense systems, Javelins and other anti-tank weapons, ground-based mobile air-defense systems, armed drones, long-range anti-ship missiles, “off-the-shelf” electronic warfare capabilities, and satellite navigation and communications jamming equipment....... “I have a dream. These words are known to each of you today,” Zelenskyy said. “I can say, I have a need. I need to protect our sky. I need your help.” ...... Ukraine has succeeded in defending Kyiv, the capital, and stalling Russia’s advances three weeks after the invasion started. The U.S.-led Western push to put advanced, lethal weaponry in Ukrainian hands boosted the resistance, which to date has met a shambolic Russian advance lacking in strategy and logistics.

What Russia’s president got wrong Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threat shows how much is going wrong for him in Ukraine No plan of battle survives contact with the enemy, but his has fared worse than many .......

In the south Vladimir Putin’s forces have taken territory, but partly by avoiding Ukrainian towns.

Around Kyiv, Ukrainian forces have foiled numerous attacks. ........ In contrast to the drug-addicted Nazi Mr Putin describes in his speeches, Mr Zelensky has taken his place at the head of a nation buoyed by courage and patriotism. ......... at home, he would preside over a society strangled by sanctions and trampled under his repressive regime. ....... It seems ever clearer that the Russian elite is appalled—and impoverished—by his paranoid adventurism. The worse his plans go in Ukraine, the sooner cracks will start to appear in his regime and the more the Russian people will take to the streets. If Mr Putin is to hold on to the Kremlin, he may be obliged to impose terror of a severity that Russia has not seen for decades. ......... Mr Putin’s second mistake was to mismanage his own armed forces. His air force has so far failed to dominate the skies. He has laboured to reassure his people that Russia is not engaged in a war, but just what he calls a “denazification” operation. Soldiers, unsure of what they are supposed to be doing, have turned up in Ukraine expecting to be welcomed as liberators. If he orders troops to slaughter their Ukrainian kin in large numbers, they may not obey. If many of his troops die in the attempt to crush Ukrainian cities, as is likely, he will not be able to cover it up at home. ........ And his third mistake was to underestimate the West. Again, perhaps he believed that it was too decadent and self-absorbed to muster a response. ........ he has almost certainly been surprised by the upwelling of popular support for Ukraine—the support that sees Londoners stand to the Ukrainian anthem and the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin lit up in the blue and gold of the Ukrainian flag. ......... Mr Putin’s belligerence is evidence of how dangerous he is. Backing away for fear of what he might do would only invite the next enormity.


Armoured vehicles Russian tanks in Ukraine are sprouting cages But they seem to be pretty much useless ....... They might thus be seen as symbols of Russia’s inadequate preparation for the campaign as pertinent as its failures to neutralise Ukraine’s air defences and to shoot down that country’s drones. ........ One of the principal threats to armoured vehicles are HEAT (High Explosive Anti-Tank) weapons, such as the Russian-made but widely employed RPG-7. The warheads of these rocket-propelled grenades are shaped charges—hollow cones of explosive lined with metal. When the explosive detonates it blasts the metal lining into a narrow, high-speed jet that is able to punch through thick steel. According to Dr Appleby-Thomas an RPG-7 can penetrate 30cm of steel plate. .......... Other, far more powerful, shaped-charge anti-tank weapons used by Ukrainian forces include Javelins supplied by America, NLAWs (Next Generation Light Anti-tank Weapons) supplied by Britain and drone-borne MAM-L missiles, supplied by Turkey. ......... Ukraine has developed munitions based on hand-thrown anti-tank grenades, by fitting them with fins so that they can be dropped accurately from commercial drones. These drone-borne bombs might present a real danger in urban areas. ....... the ghost dance shirts, supposed to have supernatural powers to stop bullets, which were worn by some Lakota warriors in their uprising against the American government in 1889 and 1890. These certainly improved morale. But they didn’t save their wearers at Wounded Knee.

Who Is Volodymyr Zelensky? What to Know About Ukraine’s President The former actor and comedian now leads his country’s resistance to Russia’s invasion, remaining in Ukraine and determined to fight ....... President Volodymyr Zelensky has become the face of Ukraine’s resistance against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invading forces, with impassioned speeches such as Wednesday’s virtual address to U.S. Congress. But Mr. Zelensky came into power with little traditional political experience. Before he was elected, he was best known for playing a television role as an ordinary schoolteacher accidentally catapulted into power. The show, “Servant of the People,” ran for four years, making him a household name.

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Ukrainian official: Bennett told Zelensky he should take Putin's proposal to end war . The Israeli official stressed the call between Zelensky and Bennett was good and long and included a discussion about the possibility of holding a mediation meeting in Jerusalem....... The Ukrainian president and his aides think that Bennett’s diplomatic involvement is largely motivated by his goal of not taking a clear position on the Russian invasion in order to maintain good relations with Russia .

As Russia Digs In, What's the Risk of Nuclear War? 'It's Not Zero.' . A major war raging on Russia’s and NATO’s borders. Increasingly bold Western military support. Russian threats of direct retaliation. A mood of siege and desperation in the Kremlin. Growing uncertainty around each side’s redlines......... As Russia and NATO escalate their standoff over Ukraine, nuclear strategists and former U.S. officials warn that there is a remote but growing risk of an unintended slide into direct conflict — even, in some scenarios, a nuclear exchange. ........

“The prospect of nuclear war,” António Guterres, the United Nations secretary-general, warned this week, “is now back within the realm of possibility.”

......... Leaders on both sides emphasize that they consider such a war unthinkable, even as they make preparations and issue declarations for how they might carry it out. But the fear, experts stress, is not a deliberate escalation to war, but a misunderstanding or a provocation gone too far that, as each side scrambles to respond, spirals out of control......... The war in Ukraine heightens these risks to a level not seen since the Cuban missile crisis and in some ways is potentially more dangerous than that ........ Increasingly paranoid Kremlin leaders, faced with economic devastation and domestic unrest, may believe that a Western plot to remove them is already underway. ....... The Kremlin has turned to nuclear saber-rattling that may not be entirely empty of threat. Russian war planners, obsessed with fears of NATO invasion, have implied in recent policy documents and war games that they may believe that Russia could turn back such a force through a single nuclear strike — a gambit that Soviet-era leaders rejected as unthinkable. ....... A recent Princeton University simulation, projecting out each side’s war plans and other indicators, estimated that it would be likely to trigger a tit-for-tat exchange that, in escalating to strategic weapons like intercontinental missiles,

could kill 34 million people within a few hours

. ........... Western leaders had concluded that Russian plans to use nuclear weapons in a major crisis were sincere, raising the risk from any accident or misstep that the Kremlin mistook for war. ........ Since at least 2014, when Russia’s annexation of Crimea led to high tension with the West, Moscow has articulated a policy of potentially using nuclear weapons against any threat to “the existence of the state itself.” ......... Russian statements have subsequently expanded on this in ways that may make the country’s nuclear tripwires easier to inadvertently cross........ In 2017, Moscow published an ambiguously worded doctrine that said it could, in a major conflict, conduct a “demonstration of readiness and determination to employ nonstrategic nuclear weapons,” which some analysts believe could describe a single nuclear launch. ......... Evgeny Buzhinsky, a retired member of the Russian military’s general staff, has described the aim of such a strike as “to show intention, as a de-escalating factor.” Some versions call for the blast to hit empty territory, others to strike enemy troops. ........ The next year, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, said that Russia could use nuclear warheads “within seconds” of an attack onto Russian territory — raising fears that a border skirmish or other incident could, if mistaken as something more, set off a nuclear strike........ These policies are designed to address a problem that Soviet leaders never faced: a belief that, unlike during the Cold War, NATO would quickly and decisively win a conventional war against Russia. ........ The result is a reluctant but seemingly real embrace of limited nuclear conflict as manageable, even winnable. Russia is thought to have stockpiled at least 1,000 small, “nonstrategic” warheads in preparation, as well as hypersonic missiles that would zip them across Europe before the West could respond. ......... But Russian military strategists continue to debate how to calibrate such a strike so as to force back NATO without triggering a wider war, underscoring concerns that threading such a needle may be impossible — and that Moscow could try anyway. ........ unlike Cold War proxy battles, Ukraine’s war is raging in the heart of Europe, with NATO and Russian forces massed a relatively short drive away from Moscow and several Western capitals......... But Moscow also seemingly believes that a sort of NATO-Russia conflict has already begun. ..... Russian strategic doctrine is designed in part around a fear that the West will foment economic and political unrest within Russia as prelude to an invasion. ....... With Putin now facing economic devastation and rising protests, “a lot of the pieces of their nightmare are already coming together” ......... Putin has already said that direct Western intervention in the Ukraine war might trigger Russian nuclear retaliation. Now each uptick in Western support for Ukrainian forces tests those limits............ Putin has already said that direct Western intervention in the Ukraine war might trigger Russian nuclear retaliation. Now each uptick in Western support for Ukrainian forces tests those limits. ..... “scores of war games carried out by the United States and its allies” all projected that Putin would launch a single nuclear strike if he faced limited fighting with NATO or major setbacks in Ukraine that he blamed on the West. ........ Both sides know that rapid nuclear strikes could wipe out their military forces in Europe, even their entire nuclear arsenals, leaving them defenseless.
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