Saturday, June 10, 2023

10: Ukraine

U.S. Official Says Spy Satellites Detected Explosion Just Before Dam Collapse U.S. spy agencies still do not have any solid evidence to determine who caused the destruction, the senior administration official said........ satellites equipped with infrared sensors detected a heat signature consistent with a major explosion just before the dam collapsed, unleashing huge floodwaters downstream. ......... American intelligence analysts suspect that Russia was behind the dam’s destruction.......... Seismic data picked up by the NORSAR observatory in Norway also supported the theory there had been large explosion near Kakhovka dam on Tuesday at 2:54 a.m. local time, when the structure collapsed. NORSAR said in a statement that signals captured from a station 385 miles away from the dam show clear indications of an explosion. .......... Engineering and munitions experts have said a deliberate explosion inside the Kakhovka dam, which is controlled by Russia, most likely caused its collapse on Tuesday. They added that structural failure or an attack from outside the dam were possible but less plausible explanations. ......... a blast in an enclosed space, with all of its energy applied against the structure around it, would do the most damage. Even then, they said, it would require hundreds of pounds of explosives, at least, to breach the dam. .......... An external detonation by a bomb or missile would exert only a fraction of its force against the dam, and would require an explosive many times larger to achieve a similar effect. .......... an audio recording, translated into English, that it claimed was between two Russian soldiers and was evidence that Russian forces orchestrated the destruction of the dam. .

With Probes of Russian Lines, Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Takes Shape Ukraine is using its new arsenal of Western tanks and armored vehicles in what is expected to be one of the largest military operations in Europe since World War II........ With each clash, Ukraine is trying to show that it can attack anywhere, while trying to make Russia defend everywhere. ........ Kyiv, which as expected in the early stages is suffering casualties, will need to show significant progress in its counteroffensive to keep the money and weapons flowing from the West. .......... Over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces firing rockets and artillery hit four Russian command centers, six areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment, three ammunition depots and five enemy artillery units in firing positions, Ukraine’s military said. ........... The flurry of initial attacks, staged under a cloak of secrecy by the Ukrainian Army, are intended to probe for weak points and lure Russia into revealing its defensive strategies too soon, before the bulk of Ukraine’s new force is put into the fight. ......... In this opening phase, Ukrainian forces are essentially probing Russian lines to determine the weakest points. They will then try to pivot and concentrate on the assaults that have the best potential for success. ......... Russia has spent months laying minefields, digging bunkers and setting out concrete barriers for tanks. ............. As Ukrainian troops assault, Russian forces move reinforcements and fire artillery in response, exposing their positions and defensive strategies. They switch on electronic jamming systems, revealing how this equipment will be used in the fighting. .......... The Ukrainian military is using what it learns in these assaults to strike Russian artillery positions, said Mr. Samus, softening up defenses for an actual breakthrough battle that will come later. The larger fight “is still ahead of us and where exactly it will be we still don’t know.” ................ The main Russian defensive tactic, military analysts have said, is to deploy a thinly manned first line to detect an assault as it is overrun. Behind this line are minefields and then more trenches. Even farther back are reinforcements, which rush forward to counterattack the assaulting troops as they try to cross the minefields. .



How Could A.I. Destroy Humanity? Researchers and industry leaders have warned that A.I. could pose an existential risk to humanity. But they’ve been light on the details........ Today’s A.I. systems cannot destroy humanity. Some of them can barely add and subtract. So why are the people who know the most about A.I. so worried? ........... One day, the tech industry’s Cassandras say, companies, governments or independent researchers could deploy powerful A.I. systems to handle everything from business to warfare. Those systems could do things that we do not want them to do. And if humans tried to interfere or shut them down, they could resist or even replicate themselves so they could keep operating. .......... If you ask a machine to create as many paper clips as possible, they say, it could get carried away and transform everything — including humanity — into paper clip factories. ........... Companies could give A.I. systems more and more autonomy and connect them to vital infrastructure, including power grids, stock markets and military weapons. From there, they could cause problems. .......... “At some point, it would become clear that the big machine that is running society and the economy is not really under human control, nor can it be turned off, any more than the S&P 500 could be shut down,” he said. ............ researchers are transforming chatbots like ChatGPT into systems that can take actions based on the text they generate. A project called AutoGPT is the prime example. ........... The idea is to give the system goals like “create a company” or “make some money.” Then it will keep looking for ways of reaching that goal, particularly if it is connected to other internet services. ........... A system like AutoGPT can generate computer programs. If researchers give it access to a computer server, it could actually run those programs. In theory, this is a way for AutoGPT to do almost anything online — retrieve information, use applications, create new applications, even improve itself. .............. Systems like AutoGPT do not work well right now. They tend to get stuck in endless loops. Researchers gave one system all the resources it needed to replicate itself. It couldn’t do it. ........ In time, those limitations could be fixed. .......... Mr. Leahy argues that as researchers, companies and criminals give these systems goals like “make some money,” they could end up breaking into banking systems, fomenting revolution in a country where they hold oil futures or replicating themselves when someone tries to turn them off. ................. one system was able to hire a human online to defeat a Captcha test. When the human asked if it was “a robot,” the system lied and said it was a person with a visual impairment. ........... as researchers make these systems more powerful, training them on ever larger amounts of data, they could learn more bad habits............ In the early 2000s, a young writer named Eliezer Yudkowsky began warning that A.I. could destroy humanity. His online posts spawned a community of believers. Called rationalists or effective altruists, this community became enormously influential in academia, government think tanks and the tech industry. .......... Mr. Yudkowsky and his writings played key roles in the creation of both OpenAI and DeepMind, an A.I. lab that Google acquired in 2014. And many from the community of “EAs” worked inside these labs. They believed that because they understood the dangers of A.I., they were in the best position to build it. ........... The latest letter was signed by Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI; and Demis Hassabis, who helped found DeepMind and now oversees a new A.I. lab that combines the top researchers from DeepMind and Google. ........... Other well-respected figures signed one or both of the warning letters, including Dr. Bengio and Geoffrey Hinton, who recently stepped down as an executive and researcher at Google. In 2018, they received the Turing Award, often called “the Nobel Prize of computing,” for their work on neural networks. .

There aren't actually THAT many people using ChatGPT Adoption of AI tools like chatbots ChatGPT and Google Bard remains surprisingly low. ....... Some days, it feels like the whole world is using ChatGPT. The reality is less impressive, according to a new survey by Morgan Stanley. ........ only 19% of respondents had used ChatGPT, and even fewer, 9% of respondents, had used the Google Bard chatbot. ........ The overwhelming majority of people not using chatbots said they were unlikely to use the tools in the next six months ....... "It's important investors bear in mind how early it is," the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote. ......... People mostly use chatbot services to learn about a new topic. ........ When online shopping, 56% of respondents said they start by using Google Search, YouTube, or Bard. ......... 37% travel research starts with Google, compared to 33% of searches that start on travel sites. .......... Morgan Stanley said Google could maintain its advantage through, "a more comprehensive and personalized travel search offering," which the company is already capturing with AI-generated search results and Bard. .



The next election can't handle a world powered by ChatGPT Get ready for "one-on-one interactive disinformation." .......... "Fundamentally, these new systems are going to be destabilizing," he told lawmakers. "They can and will create persuasive lies at a scale humanity has never seen before. Outsiders will use them to affect our elections, insiders to manipulate our markets and our political systems. Democracy itself is threatened." ........... The devastation caused by social media in America's recent political history could look like child's play by comparison to AI. ......... The large language models that underpin chatbots like ChatGPT can predict public opinion with remarkable accuracy when fed specific media diets ........... In the context of an election, this could lead to situations where corporate, government, or foreign entities take these accurate predictions on public opinion and use them to "fine-tune strategies" that influence the way a voter acts....... even technology "as prosaic as Google search" can influence undecided voters trying to get information in the final days of an election, given what he described as the "enormous effect" the ranking of Google search articles. ......... people "may not even know they're being influenced." ........... bots like ChatGPT routinely make mistakes. ........ What he is less sure of is that users will continue to double-check ChatGPT's answers as its underlying model improves.

China and Xi are making a backup plan in case Putin dies or gets deposed, analyst says Xi appears to be cultivating closer ties to Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin....... Then, in May, China's Prime Minister Li Qiang invited Mishustin to China, where he "received Mishustin at the Great Hall of the People, once again completely beyond the ordinary bounds of Chinese and Russian protocol." ...... As evidence of Putin's displeasure, he points to Mishustin's absence from subsequent Russian Security Council meetings, of which the prime minister is a permanent member. ........ "This old-style Kremlinology is perhaps the best evidence we have that China may be looking beyond Putin and seeking to cultivate alternative relationships in Russia." ......... Mistushin's is not a name that usually comes up in discussions of potential successors to Putin. A former tax official, he has cultivated a reputation as an effective manager. According to Russian independent media organization Meduza, he has played "no part" in implementing Putin's Ukraine war, and does not discuss it.


जसपाले नचाहँदा नचाहँदै जनमत पार्टी सहभागी हुँदैछ सरकारमा
जसले उपन्यासको रोयल्टीबाटै कोटेश्वरमा घडेरी किने
मधेसको माग पुरा भएको छैन,आन्दोलनका लागि तयार रहनुस् : सिके राउत
८४ को चुनाव रास्वपाले जित्ने देखेपछि अन्य दलहरूले घेराबन्दी गरिरहेका छन् : रवि लामिछाने
माओवादीसँग पार्टी एकता गर्ने नेसपाको निर्णय
३२ वर्षपछि रजनीकान्त र अमिताभको सहकार्य

An Endgame for Ukraine .It may be that Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive, which could be in its early stages, will be as fruitless as Russia’s winter offensive. Defenders typically have advantages over attackers in trench warfare, and the Russian Army has had months to dig in. ........ while the nuclear threat should never be discounted, it looks empty on close inspection. ........ Those who make the South Korea analogy neglect two things. First, Russia is intrinsically a more powerful state than North Korea. Second, peace on the Korean Peninsula has been preserved by a large and continuous 70-year U.S. military presence — one that relatively few Americans would have an appetite to duplicate in Ukraine. ......... populations that aren’t necessarily eager to be liberated by Kyiv ............ the second flavor: to help Ukraine restore its pre-February 2022 borders but no further — with compensation in the form of membership in the European Union and a U.S.-Ukraine security treaty modeled on America’s security cooperation with Israel.

‘How Could This Happen?’: Canadian Fires Burning Where They Rarely Have Before Of the more than 400 fires burning in Canada, more than one-third are in Quebec, which has little experience with so many and such large wildfires........ With three months left in Canada’s wildfire season, blazes have already scorched more than 10 times the acres of land burned by this time last year. The size and intensity of the fires are believed to be linked to drought and heat brought on by a changing climate. ...... Fires are burning in forests in all of Canada’s provinces and territories, except the province of Prince Edward Island and Nunavut, a northern territory that sits above the tree line, where temperatures are too low for trees to survive. ........ The wildfires in Quebec were sparked last week by a single lightning strike near Val-d’Or, a city about 200 miles southwest of Chibougamau ....... said they did not realize how climate change could upend lives in Canada.



India is now the world's most populous nation. And that's not necessarily a bad thing . "Municipal capacity in India is very poor," he says. "Cities do little else than pick up the trash and most of them don't do that very well."

Ukraine Mounts Multiple Attacks on Russian Occupiers The assaults, with Western tanks and armored vehicles, appear to mark a long-awaited counteroffensive that Ukraine hopes will retake territory and shore up allies’ resolve to keep supplying weapons. ........ Ukraine’s plans target specific areas to try to break through Russian lines, but can adjust to concentrate on those thrusts that prove most successful ........ the table-flat terrain, with little cover along much of the southern front, leaves any advancing force of troops or armored vehicles vulnerable to enemy artillery. ............ Sergei K. Shoigu, the Russian defense minister, said that forces of Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade, including dozens of armored vehicles, had “made an attempt to break through Russia’s defense” in that area, but that Moscow’s air and ground forces had repelled the attack. That brigade is one of the Ukrainian units that have received training and advanced equipment from the United States. ....... Britain’s defense intelligence agency said in its daily assessment on Thursday that “in most areas Ukraine holds the initiative.” ....... But Russian bloggers said that defenses were holding, aided by sustained strikes by the Russian Air Force. ........ But while solid so far, there is no guarantee that Western support will remain in the long term. The U.S. budget for military assistance, for example, is expected to run out by around September, and some Republicans in Congress have questioned the justification for it. ........ If Ukraine fails to break through Russia’s mine belts, tank traps and trench lines, the appetite for arming its forces could wane, putting pressure on Kyiv to enter into negotiations with Moscow or freeze the conflict, cementing in place some of Russia’s territorial gains.

Hard Right Grinds House to a Halt, Rebuking McCarthy for the Debt Deal Members of the ultraconservative Freedom Caucus effectively shut down the House floor for several hours, calling the speaker’s fiscal compromise with President Biden a betrayal. ......... Representative Dan Bishop of North Carolina accused Mr. McCarthy and his team of trying to “pull the pin on the grenade and roll it under the tent of Republican unity” by agreeing to the debt limit deal, which contained spending cuts only a fraction as large as G.O.P. lawmakers had endorsed in a bill they pushed through in April. “What happens depends on how leadership is inclined to reciprocate.”

China is likely headed for a lost decade and won't 'eat our economic lunch,' former IMF official says . China's economy is stumbling and is likely headed for a lost decade similar to Japan's. ......... China's economy is likely headed for a so-called lost decade akin to the slump that hit Japan three decades ago ........ attributed much of that to the bursting of China's housing and credit market bubbles, noting that Japan experienced a similar bust in the 1990s. ......... home prices have fallen for 12 straight months while local governments are struggling to repay debts as land sales hit a standstill. .......... the Chinese government's efforts to aid its own housing market and weak local governments mean there won't be much credit available for healthier parts of the economy ......... "As occurred with the supposed Japanese economic miracle in the 1980s before it, we will find that the Chinese economy had clay feet." ........ Another silver lining is that a slower economy will lower prices for commodities and Chinese exports, providing some inflation relief, he said. "That might allow the Federal Reserve to let up on its newfound monetary policy religion."

Brightest gamma-ray burst ever seen, the largest known explosion since Big Bang, has a unique jet structure unlike any other The GRB, called the Brightest Of All Time (or BOAT) may be powered by its strange jet structure, scientists say............ Even before the BOAT was spotted, GRBs were already considered the most powerful, violent, and energetic explosions in the universe, capable of blasting out as much energy in a matter of seconds as the sun will produce over its entire around ten billion-year lifetime. There are two types of these blasts, long-duration, and short-duration, which might have different launch mechanisms, both resulting in the creation of a black hole.

India predicted to outshine China as Asia remains a bright spot for global growth In 2023, the OECD expects India to grow 6%, China to grow 5.4% and Indonesia to grow 4.7%, while the global economy grows 2.7%. ......... global financial conditions suggest it’s “Asia’s time to shine.”

Opinion: The Ukraine dam disaster demands accountability The huge reservoir the dam contained – some 150 miles long and about 100 feet tall – provided drinking water for millions of Ukrainians and irrigated millions of acres of agricultural land in a country that supplies 10% of the world’s wheat. Grain prices for the entire world rose on news of the calamity. ....... This week’s calamity felt like a reprise of the 1941 decision by Soviet leader Joseph Stalin to destroy a hydroelectric dam that spanned a different segment of the Dnipro River. ....... As long ago as last October, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia was mining the dam and said the world should warn the Kremlin that blowing it up would be tantamount to “the use of weapons of mass destruction.” ........... Russia, after all, had control of the facility and had the most to gain from its destruction. ............ The European Union seems to have come to a similar conclusion. It condemned the incident as “a new dimension of Russian atrocities.” EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen wrote, “Russia will have to pay for the war crimes committed in Ukraine.” Blowing up a dam is a war crime, as it violates the Geneva Conventions and its protocols. ............ There is another possibility – that the dam collapsed from structural failure. Satellite images showed damage to the bridge atop the dam last week. But even if the dam fell on its own, Russia bears responsibility, because it controlled it and was responsible for maintaining it. As UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, the disaster is “another devastating consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.” ............ Worryingly, water from the reservoir is used to cool the reactors from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, also occupied by Russia’s military. Five of the six reactors had already been shut down. For now, the plant’s cooling pond has enough water, but experts are watching closely. ........ The dam itself, under Russian control since March 2022, acted as one of the bridges across the Dnipro, which Ukrainian forces might have planned to cross in their push to regain territory.

This AI-based gig will be ‘the biggest new side hustle,’ says expert—and it can pay $100 per hour And many companies are turning to the tool to create content of their own. ...... It’s called an ‘AI content assistant’

How Can ChatGPT Provide Suggestions For Creating Effective Social Media Ads?
How Can ChatGPT Suggest Ways To Improve Social Media Engagement And Grow A Following?
How Can ChatGPT Assist In Creating Email Marketing Campaigns That Generate High Open And Click-through Rates?
How Can ChatGPT Provide Guidance On How To Create Compelling Marketing Copy?
How Can ChatGPT Help Create Effective Landing Pages That Convert Visitors Into Leads Or Customers?


‘The Godfather of A.I.’ Leaves Google and Warns of Danger Ahead For half a century, Geoffrey Hinton nurtured the technology at the heart of chatbots like ChatGPT. Now he worries it will cause serious harm. ........ A part of him, he said, now regrets his life’s work. ........ “I console myself with the normal excuse: If I hadn’t done it, somebody else would have” ......... the new A.I. systems could be as important as the introduction of the web browser in the early 1990s and could lead to breakthroughs in areas ranging from drug research to education. ........

“It is hard to see how you can prevent the bad actors from using it for bad things,” Dr. Hinton said.

.......... In 1972, as a graduate student at the University of Edinburgh, Dr. Hinton embraced an idea called a neural network. A neural network is a mathematical system that learns skills by analyzing data. At the time, few researchers believed in the idea. But it became his life’s work. .......... In the 1980s, Dr. Hinton was a professor of computer science at Carnegie Mellon University, but left the university for Canada because he said he was reluctant to take Pentagon funding. At the time, most A.I. research in the United States was funded by the Defense Department. Dr. Hinton is deeply opposed to the use of artificial intelligence on the battlefield — what he calls “robot soldiers.” .......... In 2012, Dr. Hinton and two of his students in Toronto, Ilya Sutskever and Alex Krishevsky, built a neural network that could analyze thousands of photos and teach itself to identify common objects, such as flowers, dogs and cars. ........... Google spent $44 million to acquire a company started by Dr. Hinton and his two students. And their system led to the creation of increasingly powerful technologies, including new chatbots like ChatGPT and Google Bard. Mr. Sutskever went on to become chief scientist at OpenAI. In 2018, Dr. Hinton and two other longtime collaborators received the Turing Award, often called “the Nobel Prize of computing,” for their work on neural networks. .......... “Maybe what is going on in these systems,” he said, “is actually a lot better than what is going on in the brain.” ......... As companies improve their A.I. systems, he believes, they become increasingly dangerous. “Look at how it was five years ago and how it is now,” he said of A.I. technology. “Take the difference and propagate it forwards. That’s scary.” .......... The tech giants are locked in a competition that might be impossible to stop, Dr. Hinton said. ............ His immediate concern is that the internet will be flooded with false photos, videos and text, and the average person will “not be able to know what is true anymore.” .......... Today, chatbots like ChatGPT tend to complement human workers, but they could replace paralegals, personal assistants, translators and others who handle rote tasks. “It takes away the drudge work,” he said. “It might take away more than that.” ............ Down the road, he is worried that future versions of the technology pose a threat to humanity because they often learn unexpected behavior from the vast amounts of data they analyze. This becomes an issue, he said, as individuals and companies allow A.I. systems not only to generate their own computer code but actually run that code on their own. And he fears a day when truly autonomous weapons — those killer robots — become reality. ........... I thought it was 30 to 50 years or even longer away. Obviously, I no longer think that.” .......... the race between Google and Microsoft and others will escalate into a global race that will not stop without some sort of global regulation. ........... Dr. Hinton said that when people used to ask him how he could work on technology that was potentially dangerous, he would paraphrase Robert Oppenheimer, who led the U.S. effort to build the atomic bomb: “When you see something that is technically sweet, you go ahead and do it.”
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