Prashant Kishor: Bihar 2025

 

Prashant Kishor, a former political strategist turned politician, has significantly shaped electoral campaigns in India over the past decade. His work in Bihar since launching his Jan Suraaj campaign in 2022 marks a shift from his earlier role as a behind-the-scenes strategist to a direct political contender. This analysis examines his recent efforts in Bihar, compares them to his past work for leaders like Narendra Modi, evaluates his chances of securing a majority in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, assesses his potential as a Chief Minister candidate, identifies possible alternatives within his party, and explores the national implications of a potential landslide victory, including the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) interest in aligning with him.

Prashant Kishor’s Recent Work in Bihar (2022–2025)

Since October 2, 2022, Prashant Kishor has been engaged in a 3,000-km padyatra (foot march) across Bihar under the banner of Jan Suraaj, a campaign that evolved into a political party launched on October 2, 2024. His work in Bihar focuses on disrupting the state’s entrenched caste-based political structure and addressing voter fatigue with the dominant regional parties, Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), led by Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav, respectively. Key aspects of his recent efforts include:

• Grassroots Engagement: Kishor’s padyatra covered 5,000 villages, allowing him to connect directly with voters, understand local issues, and build a network of supporters. His campaign emphasizes governance and development over caste-based identity politics, targeting issues like corruption, migration, and lack of employment opportunities. He has promised initiatives focused on uplifting Scheduled Castes (SC) and generating youth employment.
• Party Formation and Strategy: Jan Suraaj aims to contest all 243 seats in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections. Kishor has positioned the party as an alternative to the NDA (BJP-JD(U)) and the Mahagathbandhan (RJD-Congress), capitalizing on anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar’s governance and the RJD’s perceived stagnation. He has recruited young professionals and plans to field 75 candidates from Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs) to appeal to a significant voter base.
• High-Profile Protests: In January 2025, Kishor staged a fast-unto-death at Patna’s Gandhi Maidan to demand the cancellation of the Bihar Public Service Commission (BPSC) exam over an alleged paper leak, drawing significant media attention. Though arrested and later released, this move highlighted his strategy of leveraging public discontent to gain visibility.
• Alliance-Building: The merger of Aap Sabki Awaz (ASA), led by former Union minister Ram Chandra Prasad Singh, with Jan Suraaj in 2024 strengthened his party’s organizational base, bringing in experienced political figures.
• Electoral Performance: Jan Suraaj contested four bypoll seats in November 2024 but failed to win any, securing only 10% of the vote share. Despite this, Kishor claimed the results were encouraging for a new party, indicating early voter recognition.

Comparison with Past Work for Other Political Leaders

Kishor’s earlier career as a political strategist saw him orchestrate successful campaigns for various leaders, starting with Narendra Modi. Below is a comparison of his past work with his current efforts in Bihar:

• Narendra Modi (2012–2014): Kishor’s first major campaign was for Modi’s 2012 Gujarat Assembly election victory, where he conceptualized innovative strategies like Chai Pe Charcha, 3D rallies, and social media campaigns through his group, Citizens for Accountable Governance (CAG). His work culminated in the BJP’s landslide victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, securing an absolute majority. Kishor’s strategies focused on branding Modi as a decisive leader, leveraging media, and mobilizing voters through technology-driven outreach. This period established him as a master strategist, emphasizing narrative-building and voter connect.
• Nitish Kumar (2015): In Bihar, Kishor helped the JD(U)-RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan defeat the BJP in the 2015 Assembly elections. His team conducted extensive grassroots surveys (visiting 40,000 villages) to identify local issues like drainage problems, which informed campaign promises. Slogans like “Bihar mein bahaar ho, Nitish Kumar ho” and turning Modi’s “DNA” remark into a voter mobilization tool showcased his ability to exploit opponents’ missteps.
• Other Campaigns: Kishor worked with diverse leaders, including Mamata Banerjee (TMC, West Bengal, 2021), Arvind Kejriwal (AAP, Delhi, 2020), Amarinder Singh (Congress, Punjab, 2017), and Jagan Mohan Reddy (YSRCP, Andhra Pradesh, 2019). His Indian Political Action Committee (I-PAC) embedded itself in campaigns, using data-driven strategies, outreach programs (e.g., Didi ke Bolo in Bengal), and tailored branding. His only notable failure was the 2017 Uttar Pradesh election, where the Congress-Samajwadi Party alliance won just 7 seats.
• Key Differences:
  • Role: Previously, Kishor operated as a strategist, working behind the scenes to amplify existing leaders’ appeal. In Bihar, he is the face of Jan Suraaj, transitioning from advisor to leader, which requires building a personal political brand and voter base from scratch.
  • Context: His earlier campaigns leveraged established parties and leaders with strong voter bases (e.g., Modi’s BJP, Nitish’s JD(U)). Jan Suraaj, however, is a new entity challenging Bihar’s entrenched caste-based politics, making it a riskier endeavor.
  • Approach: Past campaigns relied heavily on data analytics, media management, and opponent-centric narratives. In Bihar, Kishor emphasizes direct voter engagement through his padyatra and focuses on governance issues, reflecting a more grassroots, issue-based approach.
  • Resources: With I-PAC, Kishor had access to large teams (up to 4,000 during campaigns). Jan Suraaj, while supported by young professionals, lacks the organizational depth of established parties like BJP or RJD.

Chances of Sweeping the 2025 Bihar Assembly Elections

Kishor has claimed Jan Suraaj will win a “thumping majority” (180+ seats) in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, scheduled for October–November. However, several factors suggest this is ambitious:

• Challenges:
  • Caste Dynamics: Bihar’s politics is dominated by caste allegiances, with JD(U) backed by EBCs and Kurmis, and RJD by Yadavs and Muslims. Jan Suraaj’s attempt to transcend caste faces resistance in a state where identity politics is entrenched.
  • Organizational Weakness: As a new party, Jan Suraaj lacks the grassroots machinery of BJP, JD(U), or RJD. Its poor bypoll performance (0/4 seats) indicates limited voter traction.
  • Competition: The NDA (BJP-JD(U)) benefits from Modi’s popularity and organizational strength, while the RJD-Congress alliance has a loyal voter base. Opinion polls rank Tejashwi Yadav (RJD) as the top Chief Minister choice (35.5%), followed by Nitish Kumar (15%), with Kishor at 17.2%.
  • Anti-Incumbency: While Kishor capitalizes on voter dissatisfaction with Nitish Kumar’s governance and RJD’s stagnation, his ability to convert this into votes is untested.
• Opportunities:
  • Voter Fatigue: Kishor’s narrative of breaking the Lalu-Nitish duopoly resonates with voters seeking an alternative. His focus on SCs and EBCs targets significant demographics.
  • Popularity Growth: A C-Voter survey shows Kishor’s popularity rising from 14.9% to 17.2% between February and April 2025, closing the gap with Nitish Kumar.
  • Strategic Alliances: The merger with ASA and potential recruitment of disaffected leaders from other parties could bolster Jan Suraaj’s candidate pool.
• Likelihood: Winning 60% of seats (146/243) is highly unlikely given Jan Suraaj’s nascent stage and Bihar’s complex electoral landscape. A more realistic outcome is securing 20–40 seats, establishing Jan Suraaj as a significant third force. Achieving a majority would require unprecedented voter consolidation, which current data does not support.

Chief Minister Candidacy

Kishor has explicitly stated he is not campaigning to become Chief Minister, emphasizing his goal is to fulfill a “dream” of transforming Bihar rather than personal ambition. In May 2025, he told voters in Saran, “I have made efforts in making 10 CMs. Today, I am not doing this hard work to become a CM.” However, he has indicated willingness to contest the elections if his party decides, potentially challenging RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav in Raghopur.

If Jan Suraaj wins a significant number of seats, the party may need to select a Chief Minister candidate. Potential candidates include:

• Ram Chandra Prasad Singh: A former Union minister and JD(U) leader, Singh’s merger with Jan Suraaj brings political experience and appeal among certain caste groups. His administrative background makes him a credible choice.
• Other Senior Leaders: Jan Suraaj’s leadership includes professionals and former bureaucrats, but no prominent figure has emerged as a clear alternative. The party’s candidate selection process, focusing on EBCs and SCs, may elevate a grassroots leader if the party performs strongly.

Kishor’s reluctance to project himself as the CM face may be strategic, avoiding perceptions of personal ambition while building party credibility. However, if Jan Suraaj approaches a majority, pressure may mount for him to take the role, given his visibility and leadership in the campaign.

Impact of a 60% Seat Victory on National Politics

If Jan Suraaj wins 146 seats, it would mark a seismic shift in Bihar’s politics, with ripple effects nationally:

• Weakening of Regional Giants: A thumping majority would marginalize JD(U) and RJD, ending the Lalu-Nitish duopoly. Kishor’s prediction that JD(U) will win fewer than 20 seats could materialize, potentially forcing Nitish Kumar into retirement and weakening RJD’s influence.
• Challenge to BJP’s Dominance: The BJP, reliant on Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) for its Bihar coalition, would face a setback. A Jan Suraaj landslide would signal that Modi’s popularity and the “TINA” (There Is No Alternative) factor are not invincible, challenging the BJP’s narrative of unassailable strength.
• Boost for Regional Alternatives: A successful Jan Suraaj could inspire similar movements in other states, encouraging new parties to challenge national and regional heavyweights. This could fragment the opposition further but also diversify India’s political landscape.
• Congress’s Dilemma: Kishor has expressed ideological proximity to Congress but declined to join it in 2022. A strong Jan Suraaj performance could force Congress to reassess its strategy in Bihar, either by aligning with Kishor or losing ground.
• Policy Implications: Jan Suraaj’s focus on governance, employment, and ending prohibition could set a new agenda for Bihar, influencing national debates on development versus identity politics. Kishor’s promise to end the liquor ban within an hour of taking power could resonate in other prohibition states, challenging BJP’s policies.

BJP’s Interest in a National Alliance

Kishor has firmly ruled out aligning with the BJP, stating in October 2024, “I will never shake hands with the BJP. There would be no need of it.” However, the BJP’s interest in bringing him into its fold depends on several factors:

• Strategic Necessity: The BJP relies on JD(U) for its central government’s stability, given Nitish Kumar’s 12 Lok Sabha seats. A Jan Suraaj majority would reduce BJP’s dependence on JD(U), making Kishor an attractive partner if he softens his stance.
• Past Tensions: Kishor’s fallout with the BJP after 2014 and his role in defeating the party in West Bengal (2021) and Bihar (2015) make an alliance contentious. The BJP may view him as unreliable due to his history of working with rivals like TMC and Congress.
• Electoral Calculations: If Jan Suraaj wins significant seats but falls short of a majority, the BJP might explore a post-poll alliance to counter the RJD-Congress bloc. However, Kishor’s anti-BJP rhetoric and focus on Bihar’s autonomy make this unlikely unless he compromises for power-sharing.
• National Implications: Aligning with Kishor could help the BJP expand in eastern states where it struggles (e.g., West Bengal, Odisha). However, his independent streak and criticism of Modi’s over-dominance could complicate integration into the NDA.

Critical Analysis

Kishor’s transition from strategist to politician is a high-stakes gamble. His past successes relied on amplifying established leaders’ appeal, but Jan Suraaj requires him to build a new voter base in a state where caste and loyalty dominate. His padyatra and protests demonstrate an understanding of Bihar’s pulse, but his bypoll performance suggests limited organizational strength. Opinion polls indicate growing popularity, but converting this into seats is challenging against the BJP’s resources and RJD’s caste-based support.

A 60% seat share is improbable without a massive shift in voter sentiment, akin to AAP’s 2015 Delhi sweep, which Kishor himself distinguishes due to Bihar’s rural, caste-driven context. If he achieves even a partial success (e.g., 50–70 seats), Jan Suraaj could become a kingmaker, forcing national parties to engage with him. The BJP, while pragmatic, is unlikely to pursue an alliance unless Kishor moderates his anti-BJP stance, given their past friction and his appeal to anti-establishment voters.

Nationally, a Jan Suraaj victory would signal a decline in Modi’s invincibility, especially if it reduces BJP’s influence in Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha seats. This could embolden opposition parties ahead of the 2029 general elections, though fragmentation risks diluting their collective strength. Kishor’s focus on governance could push parties to prioritize development, but his success hinges on overcoming Bihar’s structural barriers, which even he acknowledges are formidable.

Conclusion

Prashant Kishor’s work in Bihar since 2022 reflects a bold attempt to disrupt a rigid political landscape through grassroots engagement and governance-focused promises, contrasting with his earlier data-driven, branding-heavy strategies for leaders like Modi and Nitish Kumar. His chances of sweeping the 2025 Bihar elections with a thumping majority are slim due to caste dynamics, organizational weaknesses, and strong competition, though securing a significant vote share is plausible. He is not currently a Chief Minister candidate, with figures like Ram Chandra Prasad Singh as potential alternatives. A 60% seat victory would reshape Bihar’s politics, challenge the BJP’s dominance, and inspire new regional movements, but an alliance with the BJP seems unlikely given Kishor’s firm rejection. His impact on national politics will depend on his ability to translate his strategist’s acumen into electoral success as a leader.