Lalu Prasad Yadav: The Paradox of Indian Politics – A Railway Miracle, a Bihar Tragedy
Lalu Prasad Yadav remains one of the most enigmatic figures in Indian political history. A populist with mass appeal and a flair for earthy humor, he defied stereotypes of leadership. His tenure as Union Railway Minister (2004–2009) is often hailed as a textbook case of public sector turnaround, even taught at Ivy League institutions like Harvard. Yet, his 15-year rule over Bihar (1990–2005) is widely seen as a period of economic stagnation, lawlessness, and “jungle raj.” So how can one man simultaneously embody both administrative brilliance and political failure?
Let’s unpack the Lalu paradox.
Part I: The Remarkable Railway Minister (2004–2009)
When Lalu Prasad took charge of the Indian Railways in 2004 under the UPA-1 government, few expected a miracle. Indian Railways was a loss-making behemoth, suffering under bureaucratic inefficiencies, financial hemorrhaging, and poor public perception.
✅ The Turnaround: What He Did
Dynamic Fare Strategy:
Lalu defied conventional wisdom by not raising passenger fares. Instead, he focused on optimizing capacity—increasing load factors and running longer, fuller trains.
Introduced "tatkal" and dynamic pricing schemes, increasing passenger revenue without alienating the public.
Freight Focus:
Instead of treating freight like a cash cow to compensate for passenger losses, Lalu rationalized freight tariffs, made bulk discounts available, and reduced pilferage.
He emphasized “wagon turnaround time”—ensuring wagons were utilized more frequently, which increased freight revenue without buying more wagons.
Outsourcing and Efficiency:
Lalu outsourced non-core services like cleaning and catering, reducing costs and corruption.
Maintenance schedules were streamlined, and train punctuality improved.
Staff Morale and Public Relations:
He took pride in addressing railway employees as family, boosting morale among the 1.4 million strong workforce.
Lalu connected with the masses, conducting train journeys, engaging directly with the public and press in a rustic, transparent manner.
Surplus, Not Deficit:
Within four years, Indian Railways posted operating surpluses of ₹20,000+ crore, turning around what was once labeled a “black hole.”
๐ Global Recognition
Lalu’s railway model was later studied at Harvard Business School and Wharton, seen as a rare case where populism met pragmatism. He proved that public sector undertakings (PSUs), with the right leadership, could thrive without privatization.
Part II: The Hopeless Chief Minister of Bihar (1990–2005)
In stark contrast, Lalu’s 15-year grip on Bihar (through wife Rabri Devi after 1997) is remembered as a dark age of governance. Infrastructure collapsed, crime flourished, and Bihar fell behind every other Indian state in development indices.
❌ The Failures: What Went Wrong
Caste Over Competence:
Lalu rose to power on the back of Mandal-era social justice politics, becoming a Messiah for the backward castes.
But this empowerment did not translate into institutional reform or economic upliftment.
Governance was replaced with patronage politics, and administration hollowed out by caste-based favoritism.
“Jungle Raj” and Lawlessness:
Kidnappings for ransom became routine.
Law enforcement eroded as criminal-politician nexus strengthened.
Bureaucrats were disempowered, and governance was run by a tight circle of sycophants and family members.
Neglect of Infrastructure:
Bihar's roads, schools, hospitals, and basic services suffered from chronic underinvestment.
Lalu glorified “gareebi” (poverty) as a badge of pride, rejecting development as an elite project.
There was no industrial policy, no significant investment attraction, and a mass exodus of youth seeking work elsewhere.
Misuse of Power:
The Fodder Scam, a massive embezzlement of government funds, exposed Lalu’s complicity in systemic corruption. He had to resign in 1997 but continued ruling through a proxy—his wife Rabri Devi—seen as a figurehead.
Brain Drain and Backwardness:
Bihar fell to the bottom of literacy, health, and per capita income charts.
Lalu actively resisted reforms. His mantra was that “Bihar is for Biharis,” but provided no jobs or skills for them.
Civil services, schools, and police were debilitated through populist neglect and politicization.
How Can the Same Man Be Both a Genius and a Failure?
This is the core of the Lalu paradox.
๐ฏ Context Matters:
As Railway Minister, Lalu operated in a centralized structure with professional bureaucrats, clear deliverables, and intense media scrutiny.
As Chief Minister, he reigned over a decentralized, patronage-driven polity, where success was measured not in economic terms but caste loyalty and electoral arithmetic.
๐ง Incentive Structures Differed:
In Delhi, performance was rewarded; in Patna, vote-bank management was rewarded.
Railways had inbuilt systems and data, while Bihar’s governance had been reduced to feudal fiefdoms.
๐ง♂️Character vs Capability:
Lalu had charisma, instinct, and political cunning, but lacked the vision and discipline to build long-term institutions.
He shunned intellectuals and experts in Bihar, while embracing bureaucrats and technocrats in Railways.
๐งฉ Final Reflection: The Legacy of Lalu Prasad Yadav
Lalu remains a paradox—a folk hero who empowered millions socially, yet presided over Bihar’s economic decay. His time as Railway Minister shows what he could have been, had he governed Bihar with the same urgency and openness.
His story is both a warning and an inspiration:
That populist charisma without institutional reform leads to ruin.
That competent leadership with political will, even in a socialist system, can yield miracles.
Bihar’s loss was Railways’ gain—and perhaps India’s complex democracy needs to study why leaders succeed in Delhi but fail at home. Lalu’s story offers a mirror to India’s tryst with development, identity politics, and the challenge of balancing caste justice with economic modernity.
Bihar Assembly Election 2025: High-Stakes Battle Among NDA, Mahagathbandhan, and Jan Suraaj
The 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election, expected in October or November, is shaping into a high-stakes political contest involving three main players: the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the opposition Mahagathbandhan (INDIA bloc), and the emerging Jan Suraaj Party led by political strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor.
Current Political Landscape
1. Major Alliances and Parties
National Democratic Alliance (NDA)
The NDA in Bihar includes the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) under Chirag Paswan, and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) led by Jitan Ram Manjhi. In 2020, the NDA secured 125 seats in the 243-member assembly (BJP: 74, JD(U): 43). Despite frequent alliance shifts, Nitish Kumar has remained CM, though questions about his longevity and effectiveness persist.
Mahagathbandhan (INDIA Bloc)
Led by Tejashwi Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the bloc includes the Congress, CPI(ML), and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP). With its core support from Yadavs and Muslims—together about 32% of the population—the alliance is trying to expand to Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), Scheduled Castes (Dalits), and non-dominant OBCs. It won 110 seats in 2020.
Jan Suraaj Party
Founded by Prashant Kishor in October 2024, Jan Suraaj is contesting all 243 seats. With the school bag as its symbol, the party emphasizes governance, education, and employment over caste alignments. It appeals to youth and urban voters but struggled in the 2024 bypoll debut, failing to secure any seat despite some local-level traction.
Key Political Dynamics
Nitish Kumar's Waning Influence
Once seen as a master of social engineering, Nitish is increasingly viewed as fatigued, with health concerns and alliance flip-flops diminishing his credibility. JD(U)’s vote share has been falling—from 22.58% in 2010 to 15.39% in 2020—and critics, including Kishor and Tejashwi, have publicly questioned his ability to govern.
Tejashwi Yadav’s Momentum
Tejashwi has grown into his leadership role, campaigning vigorously on issues of unemployment, education, and governance. He’s working to expand the RJD’s base to include EBCs and sections of Dalits who feel left out by the NDA.
Prashant Kishor’s Disruption Attempt
Kishor aims to sideline caste in Bihar’s politics by focusing on development. His party’s technocratic image and caste-neutral messaging appeal to educated, forward-caste youth. However, in a state where over 57% of voters prefer candidates from their own caste, Jan Suraaj faces structural limitations.
Opinion Poll Trends
1. Chief Ministerial Preferences
Tejashwi Yadav (RJD)
Consistently ranks first in CM preference:
May 2025 (Moneycontrol): 39% prefer Tejashwi vs. 34% for Nitish.
February 2025 (India Today-CVoter): Tejashwi at 41%, Nitish at 18%, Kishor at 15%.
June 2025 (India Today): Tejashwi at 37%, Nitish at 18%, Kishor at 16%.
Nitish Kumar (JD(U))
Stronger among women and older voters but overall lagging due to fatigue concerns.
Prashant Kishor (Jan Suraaj)
Registers 15-16% support. Gains are visible among urban and forward-caste youth, but not yet statewide.
2. Vote Share Estimates
NDA
May 2025 (InkinsightAi): NDA at 49%, Mahagathbandhan at 36%, Jan Suraaj at 1%.
May 2025 (Moneycontrol): NDA leads among youth (44.6%) and women (60.4%).
Mahagathbandhan
Hovering around 35–39%, with solid base in Yadav-Muslim voters. CPI(ML) and VIP help extend reach to marginalized groups.
Jan Suraaj
Despite poll estimates of just 0.76–1%, it drew 10% vote share in the 2024 bypolls, suggesting localized traction.
3. Seat Projections
While formal projections remain scarce, commentators estimate:
JD(U) may win fewer than 30 seats.
RJD is projected to lead the Mahagathbandhan’s tally.
BJP could remain the single-largest party.
Jan Suraaj may win 5–20 seats at best, potentially acting as a spoiler.
What Could Change Before the Election?
1. Caste Coalitions and Realignments
Caste remains central to Bihar’s politics:
EBCs (36%) are up for grabs.
Yadavs (14%) and Muslims (18%) remain RJD’s core.
Forward castes may be split between BJP and Jan Suraaj.
Dalit voters, long divided between Paswan’s LJP and RJD/INC, could be a swing group.
2. Alliance Maneuvering
The NDA's cohesion may weaken due to tensions between JD(U) and LJP.
BJP's tacit preference for Chirag Paswan as a younger face may conflict with Nitish's continued leadership.
The Mahagathbandhan is consolidating alliances with CPI-ML and VIP to build a broader social base.
3. Campaign Strength
Modi's campaign impact in Bihar appears muted.
Tejashwi’s focus on jobs and education is resonating among first-time voters.
Kishor’s padyatra has raised awareness, but converting that into votes requires deeper grassroots mobilization.
4. National Security and Narrative Wars
Operation Sindoor, a high-profile anti-terror crackdown, could become a talking point.
If seen as successful, NDA may gain.
If politicized, opposition could counter-mobilize against it.
Nitish Kumar’s health and ability to campaign actively could significantly affect JD(U)’s numbers.
Can Jan Suraaj Win a Majority?
1. Highly Improbable
To form a majority government, Jan Suraaj needs 122 seats—unlikely without a caste base, seasoned cadre, or large-scale voter trust.
Its 2024 bypoll performance (10% vote share, no wins) underscores the challenges.
2. Possible Kingmaker Role
If Jan Suraaj wins 20–30 seats, it could create a hung assembly, especially by drawing away anti-NDA votes.
However, Kishor has ruled out a post-poll alliance with the BJP, and ideological differences with RJD make an alliance with Mahagathbandhan uncertain.
Will Prashant Kishor Become Chief Minister?
Unlikely in 2025:
His CM preference rating (15–16%) trails behind Tejashwi (37–41%).
Bihar hasn't had a Brahmin CM since 1989, and caste remains a potent filter.
A likely contest from Raghopur (Tejashwi’s seat) would be bold but risky.
Best Case:
If Kishor secures 20+ seats, he could push for coalition leverage.
Without aligning with BJP or RJD, the path to CM remains blocked.
Conclusion
As of mid-2025, the Bihar election is a bipolar contest between the NDA and Mahagathbandhan, with Jan Suraaj emerging as a wild card.
Poll standings:
NDA: 46–49%
Mahagathbandhan: 35–39%
Jan Suraaj: 0.76–1% (with potential to rise to 5–10%)
CM preference:
Tejashwi Yadav: 37–41%
Nitish Kumar: 18–34%
Prashant Kishor: 15–16%
While Jan Suraaj is unlikely to win outright, it could disrupt traditional vote banks and play a decisive role in a hung assembly scenario. However, unless Prashant Kishor builds a robust on-ground organization and secures support across caste lines, his CM ambitions remain aspirational.
Can Prashant Kishor Do for Himself What He Did for Others? The Real Test Begins Now
In Indian politics, few figures have loomed as large behind the scenes in the last decade as Prashant Kishor. From Narendra Modi's 2014 campaign juggernaut to Nitish Kumar’s 2015 comeback, from Amarinder Singh’s Punjab sweep to Jagan Mohan Reddy’s Andhra Pradesh landslide and Mamata Banerjee’s 2021 triumph—Kishor has been the invisible hand orchestrating some of the most successful political campaigns in modern India.
But the 2025 Bihar Assembly election is different.
This time, Prashant Kishor is not the strategist in the background—he is the face, the founder, and possibly the chief ministerial candidate of the Jan Suraaj Party. And with that, comes a question that now dominates Bihar’s political imagination:
Can Prashant Kishor do for himself what he has done for others?
The Strategist’s Legacy Across India
Let’s begin with a brief inventory of Kishor’s political consulting legacy:
2014 – Narendra Modi (BJP): As founder of the Citizens for Accountable Governance (CAG), Kishor introduced data-driven political campaigning and innovative programs like Chai Pe Charcha—a low-cost, high-impact grassroots engagement tactic that humanized Modi and connected him directly with voters.
2015 – Nitish Kumar (JD(U)): Designed a 10-point governance program and the famous slogan “Thike Ta Hai Nitish Kumar”, reframing Nitish as a steady, acceptable choice amid Bihar’s political flux. The Mahagathbandhan swept to power.
2017 – Amarinder Singh (Congress, Punjab): Ran the “Captain for CM” campaign with the emotional and trust-laden slogan “Punjab Da Captain”, rebranding Amarinder as the only credible bulwark against the AAP-BJP-SAD vortex.
2019 – Jagan Mohan Reddy (YSRCP): Crafted a padyatra-heavy grassroots campaign based on Navaratnalu, a 9-point welfare promise. Jagan’s victory was massive.
2021 – Mamata Banerjee (TMC): With “Didi Ke Bolo” and “Bangla Nijer Meyeke Chay” (Bengal wants its own daughter), Kishor turned an anti-incumbency tide and an aggressive BJP onslaught into a resounding endorsement for Mamata.
In each case, Kishor created clarity of leadership, localized messaging, tactical grassroots mobilization, and a strong emotional narrative.
Why His Own Campaign Needs the Same Treatment
Fast forward to 2025, and Kishor now finds himself polling at 15–16% in CM preference ratings—impressive for a first-timer, but far behind Tejashwi Yadav (37–41%). His party, Jan Suraaj, currently commands only 0.76–1% vote share in opinion polls, with some local surveys showing potential for 5–10% based on caste-agnostic urban and youth votes.
This is where the strategist must become the product.
And the product needs branding.
1. He Must Be the Face—Unequivocally
There is no room for ambiguity.
Kishor’s repeated statements like “I am not sure I will contest” or “The people will decide” do not inspire political confidence. Every successful campaign he has led was anchored around a visible, decisive leader: Modi, Nitish, Jagan, Mamata, Captain Amarinder.
Voters don't follow a vacuum. They follow a face.
It’s time for Prashant Kishor to publicly commit: “Yes, I am running for Chief Minister.”
2. He Must Tackle the Caste Equation Head-On
Kishor’s appeal has been built on a vision of class- and development-centric politics, but Bihar’s politics runs through caste lines. More than 57% of voters, according to surveys, prefer leaders from their own caste.
So far, Jan Suraaj has gained traction among forward castes and aspirational youth. But Kishor must:
Craft inclusive caste messaging, not ignore caste altogether.
Form alliances with underrepresented OBC, EBC, and Dalit communities, particularly in areas where RJD and NDA are vulnerable.
Empower caste-based sub-committees that channel development aspirations through community leaders.
Ignoring caste may feel principled—but it’s strategically risky.
3. Where Is His Own “Chai Pe Charcha”?
Prashant Kishor was the architect of Chai Pe Charcha, Punjab Da Captain, Thike Ta Hai Nitish Kumar, and Bangla Nijer Meyeke Chay.
So where is his signature slogan?
A few suggestions that could echo his "system change" agenda:
“Badlav Bihar Ka, Netritva Naya” (Bihar’s Change, New Leadership)
“Har Booth, Jan Suraaj” (Every Booth, People’s Governance)
“Caste Nahi, Kaam Chahiye” (We Want Work, Not Caste)
Slogans matter. They unify a campaign. They make it relatable. They go viral.
4. Where Is His 10-Point Program?
In 2015, Kishor gave Nitish Kumar a sleek, digestible 10-point agenda—covering electricity, roads, health, and education—that voters remembered.
Jan Suraaj has spoken in broad strokes about governance and reform, but needs to concretize its pitch with:
A 10-point development agenda—perhaps focused on schools, jobs, roads, digital access, women’s safety, irrigation, clean air, urban planning, health, and governance.
A detailed plan for Bihar@2040, a long-term vision that separates Jan Suraaj from short-term populism.
Without a sharp agenda, even the best slogans fall flat.
5. More Than a Crore Supporters? Turn Them into a Machine
Kishor claims more than one crore people have joined Jan Suraaj.
That’s huge. But are they organized?
Have booth-level committees been formed across Bihar’s 72,000+ polling booths?
Is there a working youth wing, women’s wing, SC/ST cell, minority outreach, etc.?
Is there training, door-to-door scripts, and data tracking?
Numbers matter, but structure wins elections.
This is where his famed “election machinery” must go into high gear—not for others, but for himself.
6. Can He Rise from 15% to 40%?
If anyone understands voter dynamics, it’s Prashant Kishor.
With 3–4 months to go, he must:
Triple visibility through media and grassroots.
Launch targeted micro-campaigns for youth, women, EBCs.
Solidify his image as the credible third alternative—not a spoiler, not an elite outsider, but a Bihari son committed to change.
From 15% to 40% is a massive leap. But Kishor has built that momentum for others. Can he now engineer it for himself?
The Stakes: A Test of Legacy
This is Prashant Kishor’s real test. Not a political consultant’s challenge, but a founder’s challenge. Not a strategist’s reputation, but a leader’s future.
Can he create clarity, mass appeal, booth presence, and narrative dominance—not just for someone else’s campaign, but his own?
If he succeeds, Jan Suraaj could become the AAP of Bihar—a disruptive, idea-driven force that resets the game.
If he fails, he remains a brilliant tactician who couldn’t win his own war.
Final Word: In Bihar, the real campaign starts when the election schedule is announced. And with three to four months remaining, there is still everything to play for. But only if Prashant Kishor steps fully into the role of the candidate, the campaigner, and the change-maker—all at once.
When Indira Gandhi nationalized banks across India, she called it reforms. When Ronald Reagan orchestrated large scale privatizations across sectors of the US economy, he called it reforms. I guess you want to be seen reforming.
In Germany, they have this concept of lifelong employment. You go to work for a company early in your life, and you stay with that company for much of your working life. And Germany is a top performing economy. It beats the US economy by a wider margin than does the Chinese economy.
There are people who argue for US-style hire and fire policies in India. They call it labor reform. That hire and fire can work. But in India, for many people, or maybe most, if you get fired, you face a certain financial cliff. You might not be able to go grocery shopping in a week. In such a scenario hire and fire might be a catastrophe.
In Japan also they have this concept of lifelong employment. I am not arguing for it. All I am saying is there is no magic pill. Too many people argue if only India were to put in place easy hire and fire, the economy would rocket past the Chinese economy. Not true. Stop looking for magic pills.
A great Indian example was Indian Railways when Laloo Yadav was Railway Minister. Indian Railways is state owned. It is the largest employer in the world. And rule number one for Laloo was, do not fire anyone as we attempt to increase our revenues and profits. Rule number two was, do not raise railway ticket prices. Because "I am a man of the people." Within those two parameters, Laloo managed to usher bumper profits. He managed to slash prices on railway tickets.
So it is not true state-owned companies are always a bad idea. When Modi was Chief Minister of Gujrat he did not nationalize a single state-owned company in his state. Instead, he granted each of them autonomy. The major thing he did was he brought political interference to a halt. They all became profitable.
State-owned companies can work. Private companies can work. Collect data. Assess data. Engage in evidence-based decision making. Do not blindly follow this or that ideology. The proof has to be in the pudding.
When Laloo took over Indian Railways that was in the red, the number one piece of advice was, fire a bunch of people. If you want to turn a profit, fire a bunch of people. Indian Railways is "bloated," he was told. But Laloo knew better. I can not fire people, Laloo said. "I am a man of the people."
He turned Indian Railways around.
Another buzz phrase is land reform. Basically, the idea is it should be much easier for industrialists to buy land. Maybe the idea does not work in India. You are mostly talking about small farmers. That small piece of land is their entire world. They depend on it for their basic food. It is not that they are against industrialization, but what will they eat the day after?
Land pooling is a better idea. You turn those landowners into shareholders in your proposed company. Why will you not look at alternate ideas like these? Chandrababu Naidu successfully implemented that idea as he started work on his dream city Amaravati. And the farmers who participated are happy. Akhilesh Yadav used something similar as he acquired land for the Delhi Lucknow expressway.
The very phrase land acquisition is problematic. It sounds like robbery. Land pooling is a friendlier phrase.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 21, 2019
5 things to know about India by 2030:
1. second largest economy (GDP), ahead of US 2. more than 1 billion internet users 3. 77% or population under age 44 4. 80% of population is middle class 5. $5.7 trillion consumer spending https://t.co/KLtLWY7idypic.twitter.com/iNo76GkC78
Bharat ke rajniti ko do cheej ki sakht jarrorat hai. Ek ki paanch sal mein sirf do deen chunav ho. Yani national, state aur local election sirf us do deen honge. Ravivar ko, chhutti ke din. Taki log booth par asani se jaa sake.
Ek wo, aur dusra desh ke rajniti ka bi-polarization. Mera Modi se man ub gaya wo main nahin kah raha. Actually, I am more excited about Modi now than I was about a year ago. Ek sal pahle to sirf promise tha, kam to kuchh dikha nahin tha. Ab to maine kaam bhi dekh liya. Bahut thos kam kar rahe hain. Lekin Modi ka bhavishy nirnay karne wala main kaun hota? Modi ko banaya bharat ki janata ne. Modi ko tikayega bharat ki janata. Main to us equation mein hun nahin.
Lekin desh ke rajniti ko polarization chahiye. Ek hai National Democratic Alliance. Aur us mein jarrorat se jyada alliance partner hain wasi baat nahin. Balki jitne chahiye satta mein tike rahne ke liye, usse kahin kam hain. Dusra pole hai Grand Alliance. Wo abhi Bihar mein shuru huwa hai. Usko national banana desh ke liye bahut jaroori hai.
Bijli nikalne ke liye koyala jab jalate ho, to kitne heat ka bijli banta hai aur kitna heat exhaust ke raste jaa ke waste ho jata hai? Percentage kya hai? Bigya jara enlighten karo. To wahi baat hai. 2014 ke chunav mein 30% BJP ko mat mila. Uske adhar pe akele usne bahumat le aaya. 20% Congress ko. Lekin uske adhar pe wo Opposition ka jagah bhi nahin bana payi. Yani ki wo exhaust mein chala gaya vote. Aur banki 50% to total waste. Yani ki abhi Bharat ke loktantr naam ka jo diesel engine hai, uska efficiency hai sirf 30%. Tees percent se bijli nikal raha hai, banki 70% waste mein jaa rahi hai.
Bipolarization ho jati hai, to NDA ka bhi size shayad badhega. To NDA aur GA. Tab efficiency almost 100% par pahunch jayegi. Yani ki 55% la ke koi sarkar banayega. Aur 45% ka opposition.
Lekin usko shayad 100% nahin kaha ja sakta. Vote kitne ne diye? 60% ne. To abhi efficiency 30% nahin hai, abhi 15% par hai. Bipolarization ke baad wo pahunch jayega 60% par. Yani ki 60% heat ka bijli niklega, banki gaya exhaust pipe se bahar.
To bipolarization BJP aur Modi ke liye bhi achhi baat hogi. A superior democracy will spring forth a superior economy. Aur Modi ka total focus hai economy.
Modi ka total focus hai economy. Wo unka strength bhi hai aur weakness bhi. Social issues par wo nadarad rahte hain. Bharat mein BJP aur America mein Republican Party kuchh milte julte hain. Pratyek desh mein ek political spectrum hota hai, extreme left se extreme right tak. Adhikansh log center mein hote hain. Sarkare adhiakansh waise log banate hain jinka bichar centrist ho. To Modi khud centrist hain. Lekin BJP ka jo tent hai, usmein center se le ke right se le ke far right se le ke kucch extreme right tatwa bhi hain. Modi khud na far right hain, na extreme right. Agar hote to main pasand nahin karta. Aur main bade gaur se dekh raha hoon. Hindu hone ka pride hai, aur hona bhi chahiye. Lekin auro ke prati ghrina nahin hai dil mein. Kamsekam mere direct observation mein abhi tak mere ko ek bhi waisa evidence nahin mila.
Lekin tent bada hai. Ek kah sakte ho aadmi kamjor hai. Apne hi tent ke logon ko thikane nahin laga sakta. Dusra perspective ye ho sakta hai ki ye aadmi kamjor nahin hai ki ye ek aise desh ka Pradhan Mantri hai jo duniya ka sabse bada loktantr hai. Bharat: loktantr ki janani bhumi hai. Loktantr British ne upahar nahin diya. Duniya ka pahla ganatantr Buddha ne sthapit kiya. Sanatani shaitano ne ujad ke fek diya, wo alag baat hai. Bandar. Monkey.
To loktantr mein kya hota hai ki jo galat bolta hai usko bhi bolne ka adhikar hota hai. Free speech. To ye to achhi baat hai ki desh ka pradhan mantri kisi ki bolti band nahin kar sakta. That is what we want.
To wahan par kami dikhi Opposition ki. Ki log jab galat bolte hain, to uske biruddh aap kyon nahin bolte? Wo to PM ka nahin Opposition ka kaam hai. Laloo aur Nitish ka kaam hai. National economy par top level ka kaam ho raha hai. Modi is a gift to India. Par social issues par space hai Opposition ke liye. BJP ke tent ke under aise log hain jinko democratic counter karne ki jaroorat hai. Kabhi love jihad, to kabhi ghar wapasi. Hote hote dadri. To us space mein Grand Alliance nirnayak role khel sakti hai.
Yani ki agar desh mein intolerance badha hai, jaisa ki kaha jata hai, to uski jimmedari Opposition ko leni padegi. Agar aap is tarah bikhre na hote to far right ke logon ki himmat patli ho jati. To aap is tarah jo bikhre pade hain, usse desh mein far right ko jaroorat se jyada jagah mil raha hai. The opposition is responsible.
Speech aur peaceful political action ----- loktantr mein ye allow hai. Shantipurvak aap sangathit ho sakte hain. Shantipurvak aap rajnitik karyakram kar sakte ho. Wo adhikar far right ko bhi hai, far left ko bhi, center left ko bhi.
Violence to na social issue hai, na political issue hai. Violence is and should be illegal, and the law should be strictly enforced. Murder ke biruddh to law hai. Hate crime ke biruddh law hai ki nahin? Nahin hai to banao. Law enforcement ko sirf din dahade murder hi nahin, domestic violence, caste violence, aur religious riots ko bhi tackle karna hoga. Us kabil banaya jana chahiye. Kaun kisko mar raha hai hame us se matlab nahin. Ham mardhar hone nahin denge. Hame sirf usse matlab hai. Law enforcement ka wo attitude hona chahiye. A riots-free India is possible. Tsunami/typhoon ke liye jis tarah early warning system hota hai, usi tarah desh bhar mein riots ke liye early warning system hone chahiye. Ki haan, yahan lag raha hai sthiti bigar ke riot ke taraf chali jayegi, to baat wahan tak pahunchne se pahle force ko wahan par pahunch jana hai. Jo karna hai so karna hai.
Law and order to first priority hai. Nitish ko log credit de dete hain. Ye kiya, wo kiya, Bihar mein bikas kiya. Are, unhone to sirf law and order take care kiya. Bikas to apne aap ho gayi. Pahle wo Sushasan Babu bane uske baad hi Bikashpurush banne ka mauka mila.
To desh bhar mein violence ko secular kism se tackle karna hai. Yani ki domestic violence ho ya caste violence ho ya phir religious violence: zero tolerance. Jaan aur dhan ki suraksha adhunik rajya (modern state) ka pratham aur sabse pramukh jimmewari hai. To wo capacity building ek pramukh rajnitik mudda hai. National, state aur local sab level par.
Grand Alliance ko ek national rup dena hoga. Aur social issues par bahut jyada space hai jo cover kiya ja sakta hai. Jaise ki Dalit liberation, wo to Mayawati ko hi karna hoga. Kaun karega? Bharat ka liberation to Gandhi aur Nehru aur Patel ko hi karna pada ki nahin? Ki koi Germany ya France se aa ke kar diya?
Ek democratic structure bana do to koi lafda nahin hota ki kaun neta banega, kya hoga. Vote kar do. Ho gaya nirnay.
Dalit liberation ka rasta Bharat liberation se fark nahin hai. Ki hum hain Harijan. Hamara naam Dalit nahin. Wo hamara abhi ka political status hai jise hum khatm karenge. Hamara apna ek alag dharm hai. Hum Rambhakt hain. Jis tarah Old Testament sirf Yahudi ka nahin Isai ka bhi, usi tarah Ved Puran Upanishad hamara bhi, lekin hamara pramukh granth hai Tulsidas ka Ramayana. Ramcharitmanas. Jis tarah Muslman ka apna alag dharm, Buddhist ka apna alag dharm, usi tarah Harijan ka bhi apna alag dharm. Ravana bhi Sanatani Shaitan, Valmiki bhi Sanatani Shaitan. Mandir toda Sanatani Shaitan ne, dosh de rahe Musalman ko. Harijan Muslim ko divide and rule.
Laoo, ya Nitish, ya Akhilesh, ya Mulayam, ya Modi koi aa ke liberate karne wala nahin. Liberation ko khud ka kaam hota hai.
The original version of General Electric's circular logo and trademark. The trademark application was filed on July 24, 1899, and registered on September 18, 1900 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I have no idea what Nitish is upto, but a few days back I read he wants a Bihar repeat in Uttar Pradesh. And I was skeptical. Mayawati revolves in a world of her own. For the Nitish swearing in ceremony, her terse response was: "Jana jaroori hai kya?"
But Grand Alliance is a catchy name. It feels like a fresh start. The Third Front has been put to rest. The Federal Front never materialized, except in Mamata's brain.
Never underestimate a Bihari. Biharis are like Greeks. Ek samay ke superpower jab sirf India hi duniya tha. Modi and Nitish are the two most talented Indian politicians of their generation. Easily. Obvious baat hai. And Laloo is a powerhouse on his own. And Laloo's conviction, in a strange way, has turned him into a Nitish Hanuman, which probably would have been hard, perhaps impossible otherwise. Yane ke Laloo ko to koi pad lena nahin. Us sthiti mein political relevance hi bahut bara puraskar ho jata hai. Yane ke alag party hote bhi Laloo ke sare ke sare MP Nitish apna gin sakte hain. Bhagwan deta hai to chhappar far ke. Isi ko kahte hain.
To Bihar ke 40 MP ek nucleus ban jate hain. A national alternative can be imagined around that nucleus.
Pechinda baat ye hai ki Uttar Pradesh is galaxy mein hi nahin. Uska apna hi alag orbit hai. Kucchh planets hote hain, na is galaxy mein, na us galaxy mein. Wo between galaxies fenka jate hain. Andhere mein lattoo ki tarah golchakkar lagate rah jate hain.
Abhi desh ka rajniti na unipolar hai, na bipolar, na multi-polar. Desh ka rajniti abhi comet ki tarah hai. Sirf ek banda PM ke liye lada pichhle saal. Aur us ke pichhe ek lamba dhunwa sa hai koso tak.
To agar Grand Alliance Bihar se failte failte Assam pahunch jaye to badi baat hai. Laloo barishth neta ke rup mein sab jagah golchakkar lagate rahenge. Agar rashtriya star par hi ek Grand Alliance banti hai aur desh ke rajniti mein ek clean bi-polarization ho jati hai to wo desh ke liye, loktantr ke liye, double digit growth ke liye bahut achha hoga. PM bhi development man, Opposition Leader bhi development man ho jaye to sustained double digit growth shayad mil jaye desh ko.
Nitishism akhir hai kya? Nitish ne kabhi codify nahin kiya. Karna chahiye. Ki humne Bihar mein aise kiya. Wo dusre jagah bhi kiye jaa sakte hain. Usi tarah Laloo ko codify karna chahiye. Railway mein unhone jo kiya so kaise kiya. Kisi paschima textbook mein hi nahin hai. Laloo ke populism ("I am a man of the people!") ne western capitalism ko maat kar diya. And it is relevant to India. Jis desh mein ghans kam aadmi jyada ho, wahan people intensive economic activity ki sakht jaroorat hai shayad. Bagair katni chhantni kiye kaise logon ke marfat bumper profit karein.
National level par Modi bahut aage hain. Indian economy ke fundamental level par itna bejod kaam ho raha hai, iska asar kuchh saal ke baad bade thos kism se padega.
Gelling the Grand Alliance at the national level is hard. Jaise Mayawati ko lo. Unhe to lagta hai BJP aur Congress ke baad hum hi to hain. To pahle unke charan sparsh karo tab koi alliance ki baat karo. Nahin to wo to mere to lagta hai chai pe bhi nahin bulayegi. Akhilesh kam nahin. Mulayam ko PM mano pahle, uske baad hi koi allaince balaince ki baat shuru ho sakti hai. Kahan na maine, kuchh planets galaxy ko hi chhod dete hain. Spin out ho jate hain. Aur Mulayam. Safal rajnitigya rahe hain. Dimag bhi shayad chalta ho. Lekin boli se to nahin lagta. Aur waise bhi wo ek apne hi kism ke Advani hain: way past retirement age. Lekin neta logon ko pata hi nahin chalta. Ghadi mein time kya hai, nabj mein daudahat banki hai bhi ki nahin. Log salam karte rahte hain. To lagta hai ek round aur dekh lete hain, rakha kya hai, log pyar de hi rahe hain.
Nitish ne Bihar mein vikas kar diya. Honestly bol raha hoon, maine kabhi kalpana bhi nahin kiya tha ki koi bhi sakhs Bihar mein vikas kar sakta hai. Like how? Where would you start? Lekin Bihar mein vikas se jyada kathin baat hai UP mein Mayawati aur Akhilesh ko ek jagah lana, usse bhi kathin unhe manana ki koi teesra neta banega. Unhe lagta hai wo hain Amrika, banki Bharat hai Fiji. Size to dekho.
Apparently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi sleeps just four hours a day. .....
LS 2014 saw the rise of Narendra Modi into a political rock star, Bihar 2015 saw the rise of his possible nemesis.
..... UPites love politics; it's their favourite pastime gossip. Even during the not-so-newsy days they are never short of topics to discuss it. And I say this for general UPites, not any more-politically-aware class; because there is no such class that enjoys politics less than the other. Even amid the Diwali fervour, Bihar results retain the top spot among the most happening conversations. More than who won, it is the who-lost-Bihar point which is discussed. Such chatter is usually inconclusive, but in a state where people wear their political opinions on their sleeves, it gives a clue of what the UP elections, due in 2017, may hold for the BJP. ....... In LS polls, BJP's vote share in the state was 42 per cent. It was a substantial increase from the last state Assembly elections in 2012 when the party got a mere 15 per cent votes. In an SP, BSP stronghold where BJP hasn't been in power for the last 20 years, it is a fairly impressive number. ........
In UP, the general feeling is that voters have been disillusioned by the BJP.
BSP and SP have upped their game which changes things further. Whether BJP fights UP with Modi at helm or not, the challenges at hand would be different this time. And it would be true for forthcoming state elections as well as the big one in 2019. ........ The Akhilesh government has sped up the work on all the major developmental programmes. With a massive ad campaign, strong social media presence, and sacking of eight non-performing ministers he has also undertaken an image makeover exercise. ...... Another advantage these parties have is strong leadership at state level, as well as district and city levels, an advantage the BJP doesn't have. ..... SP and BSP have a loyal voter base in Yadavs, Muslims, and Dalits which form more than 40 per cent of UP's population. .... 2017 may be a tough fight between BSP and SP. In Bihar, the BJP was at least in the race to the throne but UP may not be so merciful.
A senior leader said that aggressive attack by party vice-president Rahul Gandhi on Narendra Modi government gave such results in Bihar and has raised the morale of party workers across UP. He said the party is now expecting to be in a fighting position against the SP and BSP in 2017 UP polls. ...... Congress MLA from Marihan in Mirzapur district, Lalitesh Pati Tripathi said, “RJD chief Lalu Prasad has announced to visit PM’s constituency Varanasi after Chhath puja to expose the development that has taken place so far in the NDA rule. Congress workers have decided to welcome him in Varanasi and take him on a tour of city to show him the real condition”.
WHILE THE Samajwadi Party is said to be reconsidering to unite with the Mahagathbandhan after its landslide victory in Bihar polls, Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad will be campaigning for the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led party for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls in 2017. ...... Lalu has already announced to visit Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Lok Sabha constituency Varanasi next month “where he would search with the help of his ‘lantern’ (RJD symbol) the development promised” during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls”. Besides undertaking a tour of the city as well as Jayapur village — adopted by PM under the Sansad Adarsh Gram Yojana – Lalu will also address a public meeting there. The Congress, too, has announced to give a warm welcome to Lalu in Varanasi. ......... The party’s Uttar Pradesh unit, that had been sidelined for the past several years, got a major morale boost after the Bihar poll victory. “Bihar results proved that Lalu ji has acceptability among the masses. We are going to turn it into a wave against BJP across the country. It will begin from UP where the party will work to strengthen SP in 2017 Assembly polls,” said Ashok Singh. ....... SP leader Shivpal Yadav has said that they would welcome the the RJD chief here as a ‘samdhi’ (relative).
Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati has predictably shot down chief minister Akhilesh Yadav's trial balloon of a mahagathbandhan to take on the BJP in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. ..... Though politics is known as the art of impossible, to expect Mayawati and Mulayam Singh to contest the election together would have been equivalent to the naivetรฉ of imagining a snake and mongoose playing together. Mayawati is known for her ego and ambition, Mulayam Singh is infamous for his betrayals, backstabbing and even bigger ego and ambition; both of them depend largely on the same vote bank and fancy their chances of winning the next election on their own. No, Mayawati is the west of Lucknow politics, Mulayam its east and the twain would have never come together. ........ One, the Congress is likely to be wiped out and reduced to a non-entity; two, the Samajwadi Party will lose a huge chunk of votes; and, three,
the real fight would be between the BJP and the BSP.
......
a Congress-mukt election harms the BJP. ...... By now, the BJP must have realised that it does well in UP only when Hindu voters are polarised and there is confusion among Muslim voters, leading to their division. ..... With the SP facing anti-incumbency and the state's nearly 20 percent minorities having tasted the fruits of tactical voting in Bihar, the BSP's support base is likely to widen and that of the SP is expected to shrink in 2017, making Mayawati the face of the anti-BJP campaign. ...... In 2007, Mayawati had managed to win over the Brahmins of UP, considered to be around 10 percent of the electorate. If she manages to once again become the leader of sarv samaj (Muslims, Dalits and Brahmins), instead of remaining the supremo of just the Bahujan Samaj, Mayawati could turn out to be the Nitish Kumar of UP, even without a mahagathbandhan.
Kishor has been sounded out for campaigns in Bengal (Trinamool), Tamil Nadu (AIADMK) and Assam (Congress) as well but the UP assignment for Congress is for him the most important decision. ...... Kishor is well aware that the "road to 2019 (the next general election) runs through 2017 (when UP assembly polls are due)". "He (Kishor) knows
the party that wins UP in 2017 will have a huge advantage in 2019"
..... Kishor, however, is likely to face a job considerably tougher than the 2012 Gujarat victory for Modi or the 2014 Modi assignment for the general election or the 2015 Nitish assignment. ...... unlike in Bihar, Congress doesn't plan to play second or third fiddle to satraps in UP. The state in 2017 is likely to see a 4-cornered contest between BJP, Congress, SP and BSP. ..... UP's political observers consider Congress to be the weakest of the four contestants. Kishor, therefore, will have arguably his toughest challenge so far because both Modi in 2014 and Nitish in 2015 had certain advantages that could be exploited. ...... "Prashant has his own way of working and has little patience with intrigue and politicking. With Modi, he had direct access, same with Nitish and Lalu. He doesn't deal with gatekeepers"
Over the last few months he has also come out from under the shadow of his father, SP chief Mulayam Singh and his uncles Shivpal Singh and Ram Gopal Yadav and according to officials in the Shastri Bhavan secretariat from where his government is run, far more assertive than he was in 2012-13.
Uttar Pradesh assembly polls is more than 15 months away from now ..... February 2017 ..... If Bihar returns Kumar and backs Laloo, Mulayam is confident of returning to a nation-wide grand alliance against prime minister Narendra Modi. After all, if backwards do not side with the BJP in Bihar, Samajwadis feel they too will have a chance to keep UP for another five years. ........
The BJP in Uttar Pradesh is working rapidly on ground. It goes to the credit of party’s national president that BJP cadre throughout Uttar Pradesh is confident of forming its government in 2017.
The communal tension and sporadic violence in some district may be coincidental but contributing favourably to the BJP....... at the time of country’s independence, Mahatma Gandhi was walking barefooted village after village in Noakhali district of Bengal, in a hostile atmosphere created by riots, making people to take a pledge not to kill others. He carried holy books, appealing to Hindus as well as Muslims, to ensure peace. There was a moving incident at one village. Gandhi visited that village. He asked the Hindus and Muslims to come out of their hutments for a common prayer and a common pledge for peace. No elderly person turned up. He waited for half an hour, not even one Hindu or Muslim turned up. Gandhiji was very ingenious. He had carried a ball with him and then addressing children from the village he said: “Small kids from this village, your parents are frightened of each other but what fright you can have? Elderly Hindus and Muslims might be frightened of one another. But children are innocent. You are children of God. I am inviting you to play the game of ball.” The Hindu and Muslim children started moving towards the dais where Gandhi was sitting. Gandhi threw the ball at them. Boys and girls threw it back. He played for half an hour and then he told the villagers: “You have no courage but if you want that courage, induct it from your children.”
