Barackface

Tuesday, July 08, 2025

8: Elon Musk

Can Elon Musk’s Party Break America’s Two-Party System? History Says Yes—But It’s a Narrow Window
The Tesla Of Political Parties
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut

Elon Musk's America Party Is Dead on Arrival | Opinion Billionaire Elon Musk's announcement of the America Party following his split with President Donald Trump over the fiscally ruinous One Big Beautiful Bill reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of American political mechanics. While Musk's frustration with Republican fiscal hypocrisy is entirely justified—the legislation adds over $3 trillion to the national debt while gutting programs working families depend on—his proposed solution ignores both the structural realities governing our electoral system and the unprecedented opportunity currently before him. .......... The problem with Musk's third-party approach lies in what political scientist call Duverger's Law, which tells us why some countries, like America, only have two political parties. Devastating to Musk's plans is the fact that this isn't a matter of voter preference or campaign financing—it's a mathematical inevitability built into our electoral system's structure. When electoral districts only have one seat for the taking and it goes to the candidate with a plurality of votes, a stable two-party system is all but guaranteed. ........... More fundamentally, American political parties are remarkably durable institutions precisely because they serve essential functions within our electoral system. The Democratic and Republican parties have weathered civil wars, depressions, world wars, and countless scandals not through accident but because they provide organizational infrastructure, fundraising networks, and voter identification systems that third parties cannot replicate. Attempting to replace these institutional frameworks represents a decades-long project with vanishingly small chances of success no matter how much money is thrown at it. ........... Yet Musk's frustration reflects a real crisis within the Republican Party that creates extraordinary opportunities for internal disruption. The passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill represents a systematic betrayal of the working-class coalition that brought Republicans to power. The legislation strips health care from millions through Medicaid cuts while providing massive tax breaks to the wealthy, forcing working families to fund benefits they'll never see. This makes traditional Republican incumbents uniquely vulnerable to primary challenges from candidates offering authentic economic populism. ................... The timing for a hostile takeover of the GOP couldn't be better. Trump's constitutional inability to seek another presidential term creates an impending leadership vacuum within the party just as his signature legislation begins harming many of its most loyal voters.

Without Trump's unique personal loyalty among working-class supporters, other Republicans will struggle to maintain a coalition built on contradictions between populist messaging and plutocratic governance.

............... History demonstrates that successful party transformation occurs through internal disruption, not external competition. The Tea Party movement proved that well-funded primary challenges could reshape party priorities within a single election cycle. Trump himself provided the ultimate template by seizing control of the Republican Party from within, completely remaking it around his vision and priorities. ................ This approach succeeds because primary elections operate under different dynamics than general elections. Lower turnout means motivated activists can have outsized influence. Incumbent advantages are also weaker there. Moreover, voters willing to participate in primaries are often more ideologically committed than general election voters. A well-funded operation targeting Republican incumbents who supported fiscal irresponsibility could achieve dramatic results with relatively modest investments. .......... Musk's business background should make this approach intuitive. The corporate world offers countless examples of activist investors who acquired relatively small stakes in companies and used them to force dramatic changes in strategy and leadership. Republican primaries represent the political equivalent—low-cost, high-impact opportunities to reshape institutional priorities through targeted intervention. ........... The alternative—attempting to build a third party from scratch—reflects the same kind of political naïveté Musk has displayed throughout his brief involvement in government. His belief that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could cut a trillion dollars in federal spending demonstrated a fundamental misunderstanding of budget realities, just as his third-party proposal reveals ignorance of electoral mechanics. ............ Instead of wasting resources on a venture doomed by structural realities, Musk should pursue a strategy that actually works in American politics: identifying vulnerable Republican incumbents who voted for fiscal irresponsibility and funding primary challengers committed to genuine conservatism. This approach offers immediate impact, requires far less capital than third-party construction, and takes advantage of a party that is headed for significant disarray.

Elon Musk Mocks Trump After 'Train Wreck' Jibe In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that he was "saddened to watch Elon Musk go completely 'off the rails,' essentially becoming a TRAIN WRECK over the past five weeks." ......... He said Musk's desire to create a new political party, dubbed the 'America Party', would create "chaos," and criticized him for not backing his spending bill, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. ......... Responding to Trump's post on X, formerly Twitter, Musk wrote: "What's Truth Social?" He added in another post: "Never heard of it." .......... Estimates from Similarweb show that X had more than 680 million total visits in June this year, compared to around 39 million for Truth Social. ................... In his criticism of Musk, Trump wrote on Sunday: "The one thing Third Parties are good for is the creation of Complete and Total DISRUPTION & CHAOS, and we have enough of that with the Radical Left Democrats, who have lost their confidence and their minds! Republicans, on the other hand, are a smooth running 'machine,' that just passed the biggest Bill of its kind in the History of our Country. .............. "It is a Great Bill but, unfortunately for Elon, it eliminates the ridiculous Electric Vehicle (EV) Mandate, which would have forced everyone to buy an Electric Car in a short period of time. I have been strongly opposed to that from the very beginning. People are now allowed to buy whatever they want - Gasoline Powered, Hybrids (which are doing very well), or New Technologies as they come about - No more EV Mandate. ............ "I have campaigned on this for two years and, quite honestly, when Elon gave me his total and unquestioned Endorsement, I asked him whether or not he knew that I was going to terminate the EV Mandate - It was in every speech I made, and in every conversation I had. He said he had no problems with that - I was very surprised!" .............. He added: "Additionally, Elon asked that one of his close friends run NASA and, while I thought his friend was very good, I was surprised to learn that he was a blue blooded Democrat, who had never contributed to a Republican before. Elon probably was, also." .............

The Most publicly interacted AI in the World

15M posts @grok pic.twitter.com/RqJS604HzF
— Tech Dev Notes (@techdevnotes) July 7, 2025

World War III Is Unnecessary
Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

My Cybertruck is driving me to my campsite, Starlink is beaming down fast internet from space, all while my family is watching USA in the 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup. This is why I feel like I’m living in year 2069. pic.twitter.com/Fyy8faSEp3
— Teslaconomics (@Teslaconomics) July 7, 2025

elon's response to trump pic.twitter.com/aYzOC9d9i6
— $TSLA Hodler (@TSLAshareholder) July 7, 2025

Thomas Sowell on ever expanding government bureaucracies and budgets pic.twitter.com/WaRfIGqTRn
— The Rabbit Hole (@TheRabbitHole84) July 7, 2025

AI video generation is advancing at the speed of light
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 7, 2025

NEWS: Both Hawaiian and Qatar Airways set new standard for in-flight Wi-Fi thanks to @Starlink’s high-speed connectivity. pic.twitter.com/Jc48nLfo94
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) July 6, 2025

🎯 https://t.co/lQ7dCWV4ks
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 7, 2025

Exactly https://t.co/DHNEwpWpjm
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 7, 2025

🚨 ELON MUSK: What’s the point of DOGE if the government’s just going to add $5 trillion more in debt? pic.twitter.com/ksplFwRkXK
— DogeDesigner (@cb_doge) July 6, 2025

The America Party is needed to fight the Republican/Democrat Uniparty https://t.co/fEqDuddOoI
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 6, 2025

I would be livid if I was Elon. Imagine you go all-in, receive tons of death threats, your companies are under fire, but you keep your head on the mission to cut costs thinking you’re doing your part to save our country. You bring in the best and brightest young minds,… https://t.co/oD5zlFWXa4
— Dave Lee (@heydave7) July 6, 2025

Elon Musk hasn’t changed. Last year, he was fighting to stop out-of-control spending and save America from bankruptcy. Today, he’s still on the same mission. Same goal. Same fight. Others changed, he didn’t. pic.twitter.com/QhXWlh1EwU
— DogeDesigner (@cb_doge) July 6, 2025

The America Party is the solution https://t.co/KryqdEcqIU
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 6, 2025

Average annual stockholder returns by $TSLA & $AAPL CEO:

• Elon Musk (Tesla): 36.3%
• Steve Jobs (Apple): 24.9%
• Tim Cook (Apple): 22.5%
• John Sculley (Apple): -5.0%
— James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) July 6, 2025

If you are an "analogy thinker," you compare Musk's new America Party to Ross Perot's third-party run and conclude it is bad for Republicans.

But that would only be the case if Musk someday backs an American Party candidate for president, and I don't see that in his plan.

If…
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) July 6, 2025

Imagine if Elon revolutionizes politics the way he’s revolutionized cars, space travel, brain chips, satellite based WiFi and tunnel digging.

I am excited to see him actually drain the swamp.
— Martha Bueno (@BuenoForMiami) July 6, 2025

Try it out and you will see!

It’s a game-changer. https://t.co/zzzcASNoyi
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 6, 2025

🚨 BREAKING: Elon Musk asks the people to choose the time and place for the inaugural American Party Congress.…putting the people first, right from the start. pic.twitter.com/mDSWcHV55Z
— DogeDesigner (@cb_doge) July 6, 2025

Philadelphia.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 8, 2025

> Tesla will never succeed
> Elon can't start a space company
> Neuralink will never work
> SpaceX will never reuse a rocket
> Elon can't run a social media

--

> Elon can't do politics
> SpaceX won't occupy Mars
> Tesla won't solve autonomy

How many times will people fall…
— Robin (@xdNiBoR) July 5, 2025

For all the people who want to see the Democratic Party destroyed, not many have considered what that actually looks like. What it looks like isn’t Republican super-dominance in all future elections. What it looks like is the Democratic Party becoming the new “3rd party” choice.
— gfodor.id (@gfodor) July 6, 2025

Philadelphia.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 8, 2025

💯 https://t.co/8q19ndPfnO
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 6, 2025

Former DOGE chief @elonmusk says he's launching the third party "America Party" after President Trump signs a historic spending bill that he vocally opposed. pic.twitter.com/5PaH0OJtM3
— Fox News (@FoxNews) July 5, 2025

Berlin, 1988 pic.twitter.com/wlODV5GQvY
— East German Visuals (@GDRvisuals) July 8, 2025

China’s De-Dollarization Drive: Progress, Plans, and Global Implications

China has been steadily advancing a de-dollarization strategy aimed at reducing its reliance on the U.S. dollar in global trade and finance. This multi-faceted effort is driven by a mix of geopolitical strategy, economic security, and protection from Western sanctions. Below is a comprehensive assessment of what China has done so far, what it plans next, and the broader implications of its shift.

Key De-Dollarization Efforts So Far

1. Growing Use of the Yuan in Trade Settlements

China has aggressively promoted the use of the yuan (RMB) in cross-border trade. As of March 2024, 52.9% of China’s cross-border payments were settled in yuan, overtaking the U.S. dollar (42.8%) for the first time.
Bilateral trade with Russia, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia increasingly uses local currencies. Two-thirds of China-Russia trade is now settled in yuan or rubles. Saudi Arabia signed a $6.93 billion currency swap deal with China in 2023.
Globally, the yuan’s share in trade finance has grown to around 5%, doubling since 2021. However, it still lags far behind the dollar, which is involved in 88% of all global foreign exchange transactions.

2. Reducing Exposure to U.S. Treasuries

China has been gradually offloading U.S. Treasury securities—down 17% between 2015 and 2022, with some estimates putting the reduction as high as 27%.
These funds are being reallocated into gold, other foreign currencies, and domestic assets, reducing the risk of sanctions or asset freezes.

3. Building Alternative Financial Systems

China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) is positioned as a yuan-based alternative to the SWIFT network. It now facilitates transactions for sanctioned nations like Russia.
The digital yuan (e-CNY) is being trialed across ASEAN and Middle Eastern countries for cross-border payments, enabling faster settlements outside dollar-based systems.
China is exploring regional financial structures, such as a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Development Bank and Sino-Russian financial alliances, to promote local currency integration.

4. Strategic Gold Accumulation

China, alongside countries like Russia and Türkiye, has significantly increased gold reserves, which now represent a larger share of foreign exchange holdings.
Across emerging markets, gold reserves have doubled from 4% to 9% over the past decade, as a hedge against fiat currency risks and Western monetary policy shocks.

5. Regional & BRICS-Led De-Dollarization Initiatives

Through forums like BRICS and the SCO, China is advocating for local currency trade and has backed discussions on launching a BRICS settlement currency.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), once dominated by dollar-denominated loans, is shifting toward yuan-based financing to reduce dollar dependency.

6. Managing the Yuan Through Devaluation and Controls

China has occasionally devalued the yuan—such as during the 2015 currency shock and COVID-19 pandemic—to maintain export competitiveness.
However, capital controls remain tight, limiting global convertibility and impeding broader international adoption.

Future De-Dollarization Plans

1. Expanding Yuan Internationalization

China intends to grow yuan adoption in global trade without fully liberalizing capital markets.
Initiatives include extending yuan trading hours and promoting yuan settlements in energy and commodity markets. A notable milestone: China completed its first yuan-settled LNG trade with France in 2023.

2. Enhancing Regional Financial Infrastructure

China is investing in CIPS and the digital yuan’s cross-border capacity, targeting deeper integration with ASEAN and Middle Eastern economies.
Proposals for an SCO Development Bank and a BRICS currency settlement platform are being actively discussed.

3. Deepening Collaboration with BRICS and SCO

China will continue to encourage BRICS and SCO members to increase trade in yuan and work toward a common currency or valuation mechanism.
Nations such as Egypt and Algeria have already begun exploring yuan-based transactions.

4. Reserve Diversification

Further divestment from U.S. Treasuries is expected, with China likely increasing holdings in gold and other stable foreign currencies like the euro.

5. Scaling Digital Yuan Adoption

Expansion of the digital yuan will focus on Belt and Road projects, cross-border trade, and sovereign fintech collaboration—bypassing U.S.-dominated systems such as SWIFT.

Leverage as the World’s Largest Trading Partner

China’s position as the top trading partner for over 120 countries gives it significant geopolitical and financial leverage:

1. Influence in Trade Negotiations

China can push for yuan-based settlements, especially with countries reliant on Chinese imports and exports. Russia, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia are early adopters.

2. Economic Dependency

Countries like Argentina and Russia, facing dollar shortages or sanctions, are turning to the yuan to preserve trade access.

3. Geopolitical Clout

Through BRICS and SCO platforms, China is building a coalition to advance de-dollarization as a strategy to counter Western financial dominance.

4. Stability in Trade Corridors

Promoting yuan-based trade provides greater stability for China’s exporters, especially in volatile or sanctioned markets.

Projected Milestones: 2025–2035

Here’s what China may accomplish in the next 10 years:

1. Global Trade Finance

The yuan’s share in global trade finance may grow from 5% to 10–15% by 2035, with broader use in BRICS, ASEAN, and Middle Eastern trade.

2. Payment System Expansion

CIPS could become a mainstream alternative to SWIFT, particularly in Global South transactions.
The digital yuan may handle 10–20% of China’s cross-border payments, particularly in BRI trade.

3. BRICS Currency Platform

A BRICS-wide currency or settlement framework could reduce intra-bloc dollar usage by 20–30%, bolstering regional economic autonomy.

4. Reserve Composition Shift

China's gold reserves may double by 2035, while U.S. Treasury holdings could fall below $500 billion.

5. Financial Hub Development

Shanghai and Hong Kong could emerge as key regional financial centers for yuan-denominated trade, challenging New York and London.

Can the World Become Truly Multipolar in Currencies by 2035?

A true multipolar currency world—where multiple currencies rival the U.S. dollar—is unlikely within a decade, but trends are moving in that direction.

1. Entrenched Dollar Dominance

The U.S. dollar still accounts for 88% of global FX transactions and 59% of central bank reserves. The yuan holds just 7% and 2.5%, respectively.

2. Structural Challenges in China

Yuan internationalization is held back by capital controls, limited convertibility, and China’s opaque monetary policy.
Domestic economic risks, including real estate instability and demographic decline, further slow adoption.

3. Emerging Multipolar Trends

A realistic outcome is a fragmented global system: the yuan gaining traction in Asia and Africa, the euro dominating Europe, and the dollar holding global primacy.
Regional currency blocs may form around BRICS and SCO nations.

4. Timeline to Multipolarity

By 2035, the yuan may emerge as a dominant currency in Asia and the Global South—but not a global peer to the dollar. A fully multipolar system may take 15–20 years, depending on reforms and geopolitical alignment.

Implications of a Multipolar Currency World

Economic Effects

Volatility: Multiple currency systems could increase transaction costs and FX volatility.
Declining U.S. Leverage: Less global use of the dollar would reduce the efficacy of U.S. sanctions.
Trade Regionalization: Trade blocs may become more insular, reducing global economic cohesion.
Debt Market Disruption: Large-scale Chinese divestment from U.S. debt could shock U.S. financial markets.

Geopolitical Consequences

Shift in Power: A yuan-led system would expand China’s soft power, especially in the Global South.
Sanctions Evasion: Countries like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela may increasingly bypass Western controls.
Strengthened Alliances: China-led blocs like BRICS and SCO would grow more cohesive and autonomous.
Escalation Risks: U.S. backlash—such as aggressive tariffs or sanctions—could inflame trade wars and fragment the global order.

Risks for China

China’s deep financial interlinkage with the U.S. may make it vulnerable to retaliatory sanctions.
Without capital account liberalization, yuan convertibility will remain limited, stalling progress.

Conclusion

China’s de-dollarization campaign is gaining ground, marked by increased yuan trade settlement, infrastructure development like CIPS, and growing gold reserves. As the world’s largest trading partner, China is leveraging its position to reshape global finance—regionally if not yet globally.

While the dollar is unlikely to be dethroned in the short term, the next decade could see a more regionalized currency landscape, with the yuan establishing itself as a major player across Asia, Africa, and parts of Latin America. A truly multipolar currency system could emerge by 2040, but it would carry economic volatility, geopolitical tension, and structural uncertainty as the global financial order is redefined.

चीन की डेडॉलराइजेशन रणनीति: प्रगति, योजनाएं और वैश्विक प्रभाव

चीन अमेरिका डॉलर पर अपनी निर्भरता को कम करने के लिए एक सुव्यवस्थित डेडॉलराइजेशन रणनीति पर काम कर रहा है। यह रणनीति भू-राजनीतिक रणनीति, आर्थिक सुरक्षा, और पश्चिमी प्रतिबंधों से सुरक्षा की दृष्टि से संचालित हो रही है। इस लेख में अब तक की प्रगति, भविष्य की योजनाएं, और इसके वैश्विक प्रभावों का विस्तृत मूल्यांकन प्रस्तुत है।

अब तक के प्रमुख प्रयास

1. व्यापारिक लेनदेन में युआन का बढ़ता प्रयोग

मार्च 2024 तक, चीन के 52.9% सीमा-पार भुगतान युआन में निपटाए गए, जो पहली बार अमेरिकी डॉलर (42.8%) से अधिक था।
रूस, ब्राज़ील और सऊदी अरब जैसे देशों के साथ द्विपक्षीय व्यापार अब स्थानीय मुद्राओं में हो रहा है। चीन-रूस व्यापार का दो-तिहाई हिस्सा युआन या रूबल में होता है।
वैश्विक व्यापार वित्त में युआन की हिस्सेदारी 5% तक बढ़ गई है (2021 में यह लगभग 2.5% थी), हालांकि यह अभी भी डॉलर की 88% हिस्सेदारी से बहुत पीछे है।

2. अमेरिकी ट्रेजरी बॉन्ड में निवेश घटाना

2015 से 2022 के बीच, चीन ने अमेरिकी ट्रेजरी बॉन्ड होल्डिंग्स में लगभग 17% की कटौती की। कुछ आकलनों में यह 27% तक बताई गई है।
यह पूंजी अब सोने, अन्य मुद्राओं और घरेलू परिसंपत्तियों में निवेश की जा रही है, जिससे डॉलर-आधारित प्रतिबंधों से सुरक्षा मिल सके।

3. वैकल्पिक वित्तीय प्रणाली का विकास

CIPS (क्रॉस-बॉर्डर इंटरबैंक पेमेंट सिस्टम) को SWIFT का युआन-आधारित विकल्प बनाया गया है, जिसमें अब रूस जैसे प्रतिबंधित देशों के बैंक शामिल हैं।
डिजिटल युआन (e-CNY) ASEAN और मध्य पूर्वी देशों में परीक्षणाधीन है, जो तेजी से भुगतान में मदद करता है और SWIFT को बायपास करता है।
क्षेत्रीय वित्तीय गठबंधनों जैसे SCO डेवलपमेंट बैंक और सिनो-रशियन फाइनेंशियल एलायंस की परिकल्पना चल रही है।

4. सोने का रणनीतिक संचय

चीन ने रूस और तुर्की के साथ मिलकर सोने की खरीद में वृद्धि की है।
उभरती अर्थव्यवस्थाओं में सोने का हिस्सा 10 वर्षों में 4% से बढ़कर 9% हो गया है, जिससे मुद्रा अस्थिरता के जोखिम को संतुलित किया जा सके।

5. क्षेत्रीय और BRICS पहल

BRICS और SCO जैसे मंचों के माध्यम से चीन स्थानीय मुद्राओं में व्यापार को बढ़ावा दे रहा है और BRICS मुद्रा या भुगतान व्यवस्था की चर्चा में आगे है।
बेल्ट एंड रोड इनिशिएटिव (BRI) में पहले डॉलर में ऋण दिए जाते थे, लेकिन अब युआन में वित्तपोषण बढ़ाया जा रहा है।

6. मुद्रा अवमूल्यन और पूंजी नियंत्रण

2015 और कोविड-19 महामारी के दौरान युआन को निर्यात के लिए प्रतिस्पर्धी बनाने हेतु अवमूल्यन किया गया।
हालांकि, कठोर पूंजी नियंत्रणों के कारण युआन की वैश्विक स्वीकार्यता सीमित है।

आगामी रणनीतियाँ

1. युआन का अंतर्राष्ट्रीयकरण

चीन वैश्विक व्यापार में युआन की भूमिका को बढ़ाना चाहता है, जबकि पूंजी खाता अभी भी नियंत्रित रहेगा।
ऊर्जा और वस्तु बाजारों में युआन-सेटलमेंट को प्रोत्साहित किया जा रहा है, जैसे 2023 में फ्रांस के साथ युआन में LNG सौदा।

2. क्षेत्रीय वित्तीय अवसंरचना को मजबूत करना

CIPS और डिजिटल युआन को ASEAN और मध्य पूर्व में बढ़ाया जाएगा, जिससे वैश्विक व्यापार के 38% हिस्से को कवर किया जा सके।
SCO विकास बैंक या BRICS मुद्रा मंच की स्थापना की संभावनाएं हैं।

3. BRICS और SCO सहयोग को गहरा करना

अधिक BRICS देशों को युआन व्यापार में शामिल करने और एक सामान्य मुद्रा या मूल्य संदर्भ प्रणाली स्थापित करने की योजनाएं हैं।
मिस्र और अल्जीरिया जैसे देश पहले ही युआन-सेटलमेंट में रुचि दिखा चुके हैं।

4. भंडार में विविधता लाना

अमेरिकी ट्रेजरी बॉन्ड में और कटौती तथा सोना और यूरो जैसे अन्य मुद्राओं में निवेश की संभावना है।

5. डिजिटल युआन का विस्तार

विशेष रूप से BRI परियोजनाओं में डिजिटल युआन के माध्यम से भुगतान प्रणालियों का विस्तार किया जाएगा।

दुनिया के सबसे बड़े व्यापारिक साझेदार के रूप में चीन की ताकत

चीन, जो 120 से अधिक देशों का सबसे बड़ा व्यापारिक साझेदार है, उसके पास डेडॉलराइजेशन के लिए रणनीतिक प्रभाव है:

1. व्यापार शर्तों पर प्रभाव

चीन व्यापार समझौतों में युआन में भुगतान की शर्तें रख सकता है, जैसा कि रूस, ब्राज़ील और सऊदी अरब के साथ हुआ है।

2. आर्थिक निर्भरता

अर्जेंटीना और रूस जैसे देश डॉलर संकट या प्रतिबंधों के चलते युआन की ओर रुख कर रहे हैं।

3. भू-राजनीतिक लाभ

BRICS और SCO के माध्यम से चीन एक नया वित्तीय गठबंधन बना रहा है, जिससे अमेरिका के वित्तीय वर्चस्व को चुनौती मिल रही है।

4. निर्यात स्थिरता

युआन-आधारित व्यापार चीन के लिए अधिक स्थिर निर्यात वातावरण सुनिश्चित करता है, खासकर प्रतिबंधित बाजारों में।

2025–2035: अनुमानित मील के पत्थर

1. वैश्विक व्यापार वित्त में युआन की हिस्सेदारी

2035 तक युआन की हिस्सेदारी 5% से बढ़कर 10–15% हो सकती है।

2. भुगतान प्रणाली में वृद्धि

CIPS एक वैश्विक SWIFT विकल्प बन सकता है।
डिजिटल युआन BRI और ASEAN व्यापार में 10–20% क्रॉस-बॉर्डर भुगतान संभाल सकता है।

3. BRICS मुद्रा ढांचा

BRICS में डॉलर उपयोग 20–30% तक घट सकता है।

4. भंडार विविधीकरण

चीन के सोने के भंडार दोगुने हो सकते हैं, और अमेरिकी ट्रेजरी होल्डिंग्स $500 बिलियन से नीचे जा सकती हैं।

5. क्षेत्रीय वित्तीय केंद्रों की स्थापना

शंघाई और हांगकांग जैसे शहर युआन-आधारित वैश्विक वित्त केंद्र बन सकते हैं।

क्या 2035 तक बहुध्रुवीय मुद्रा व्यवस्था संभव है?

1. डॉलर का प्रभुत्व अभी कायम

अमेरिकी डॉलर 88% विदेशी मुद्रा लेन-देन और 59% केंद्रीय बैंक भंडार में मौजूद है, जबकि युआन की हिस्सेदारी केवल 7% और 2.5% है।

2. चीन की आंतरिक सीमाएं

पूंजी नियंत्रण, विनिमय दर प्रबंधन, और पारदर्शिता की कमी युआन के लिए बाधाएं हैं।

3. उभरती बहुध्रुवीय प्रवृत्तियाँ

एशिया और अफ्रीका में युआन, यूरोप में यूरो, और वैश्विक स्तर पर डॉलर — इस प्रकार एक क्षेत्रीय मुद्रा प्रणाली संभव है।

4. समयसीमा

2040 तक बहुध्रुवीय व्यवस्था आकार ले सकती है, लेकिन पूर्ण वैश्विक प्रतिस्पर्धा के लिए चीन को बड़े आर्थिक और नीतिगत सुधार करने होंगे।

बहुध्रुवीय मुद्रा व्यवस्था के प्रभाव

आर्थिक प्रभाव

मुद्रा अस्थिरता: व्यापार लागत में वृद्धि और हेजिंग की ज़रूरतें।
अमेरिकी वित्तीय दबदबे में गिरावट: प्रतिबंधों की क्षमता में कमी।
क्षेत्रीय व्यापार प्रणाली: वैश्विक एकता में बाधा।
अमेरिकी ऋण बाजार में झटका: चीन की बॉन्ड बिक्री से अमेरिकी बाज़ार प्रभावित हो सकता है।

भू-राजनीतिक प्रभाव

शक्ति संतुलन में बदलाव: चीन का वित्तीय प्रभाव बढ़ेगा।
प्रतिबंधों से बचाव: रूस, ईरान जैसे देश युआन प्रणालियों का उपयोग कर सकते हैं।
BRICS/SCO गठबंधनों की मजबूती: चीन की अगुवाई में नए वैश्विक गठबंधन उभर सकते हैं।
अमेरिकी प्रतिक्रिया: जैसे कि 100% टैरिफ प्रस्ताव — व्यापार युद्ध को जन्म दे सकते हैं।

चीन के लिए जोखिम

अमेरिकी वित्त प्रणाली से गहराई से जुड़ा होने के कारण चीन पर प्रतिशोधात्मक प्रतिबंध लगाए जा सकते हैं।
पूंजी खाता स्वतंत्रता के बिना युआन की सीमित स्वीकार्यता बनी रहेगी।

निष्कर्ष

चीन की डेडॉलराइजेशन रणनीति — युआन व्यापार, भुगतान अवसंरचना, और भंडार विविधीकरण के माध्यम से — तेज़ी से आगे बढ़ रही है। 2035 तक युआन एशिया और अफ्रीका में एक क्षेत्रीय प्रमुख मुद्रा बन सकता है, जबकि BRICS एक स्थानीय मुद्रा सेटलमेंट ढांचा तैयार कर सकता है। लेकिन अमेरिकी डॉलर का वैश्विक प्रभुत्व अपनी नेटवर्क शक्ति और चीन की पूंजी नियंत्रण नीति के कारण कायम रहेगा।

2040 तक बहुध्रुवीय मुद्रा प्रणाली संभव है, परंतु यह एक अस्थिर, विभाजित और प्रतिस्पर्धी वैश्विक वित्तीय परिदृश्य को जन्म दे सकती है — जिसमें टैरिफ, प्रतिबंध, और मुद्रा युद्धों की संभावना बनी रहेगी।

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Tuesday, July 08, 2025

8: Elon Musk

Without Trump's unique personal loyalty among working-class supporters, other Republicans will struggle to maintain a coalition built on contradictions between populist messaging and plutocratic governance.

China’s De-Dollarization Drive: Progress, Plans, and Global Implications

China’s De-Dollarization Drive: Progress, Plans, and Global Implications

Key De-Dollarization Efforts So Far

1. Growing Use of the Yuan in Trade Settlements

2. Reducing Exposure to U.S. Treasuries

3. Building Alternative Financial Systems

4. Strategic Gold Accumulation

5. Regional & BRICS-Led De-Dollarization Initiatives

6. Managing the Yuan Through Devaluation and Controls

Future De-Dollarization Plans

1. Expanding Yuan Internationalization

2. Enhancing Regional Financial Infrastructure

3. Deepening Collaboration with BRICS and SCO

4. Reserve Diversification

5. Scaling Digital Yuan Adoption

Leverage as the World’s Largest Trading Partner

1. Influence in Trade Negotiations

2. Economic Dependency

3. Geopolitical Clout

4. Stability in Trade Corridors

Projected Milestones: 2025–2035

1. Global Trade Finance

2. Payment System Expansion

3. BRICS Currency Platform

4. Reserve Composition Shift

5. Financial Hub Development

Can the World Become Truly Multipolar in Currencies by 2035?

1. Entrenched Dollar Dominance

2. Structural Challenges in China

3. Emerging Multipolar Trends

4. Timeline to Multipolarity

Implications of a Multipolar Currency World

Economic Effects

Geopolitical Consequences

Risks for China

Conclusion

चीन की डेडॉलराइजेशन रणनीति: प्रगति, योजनाएं और वैश्विक प्रभाव

अब तक के प्रमुख प्रयास

1. व्यापारिक लेनदेन में युआन का बढ़ता प्रयोग

2. अमेरिकी ट्रेजरी बॉन्ड में निवेश घटाना

3. वैकल्पिक वित्तीय प्रणाली का विकास

4. सोने का रणनीतिक संचय

5. क्षेत्रीय और BRICS पहल

6. मुद्रा अवमूल्यन और पूंजी नियंत्रण

आगामी रणनीतियाँ

1. युआन का अंतर्राष्ट्रीयकरण

2. क्षेत्रीय वित्तीय अवसंरचना को मजबूत करना

3. BRICS और SCO सहयोग को गहरा करना

4. भंडार में विविधता लाना

5. डिजिटल युआन का विस्तार

दुनिया के सबसे बड़े व्यापारिक साझेदार के रूप में चीन की ताकत

1. व्यापार शर्तों पर प्रभाव

2. आर्थिक निर्भरता

3. भू-राजनीतिक लाभ

4. निर्यात स्थिरता

2025–2035: अनुमानित मील के पत्थर

1. वैश्विक व्यापार वित्त में युआन की हिस्सेदारी

2. भुगतान प्रणाली में वृद्धि

3. BRICS मुद्रा ढांचा

4. भंडार विविधीकरण

5. क्षेत्रीय वित्तीय केंद्रों की स्थापना

क्या 2035 तक बहुध्रुवीय मुद्रा व्यवस्था संभव है?

1. डॉलर का प्रभुत्व अभी कायम

2. चीन की आंतरिक सीमाएं

3. उभरती बहुध्रुवीय प्रवृत्तियाँ

4. समयसीमा

बहुध्रुवीय मुद्रा व्यवस्था के प्रभाव

आर्थिक प्रभाव

भू-राजनीतिक प्रभाव

चीन के लिए जोखिम

निष्कर्ष