Wednesday, December 12, 2007

If Hillary Goes Negative, She Finishes Third In Iowa

We are taking Iowa. We are taking New Hampshire.

Hillary's choice is to finish second in Iowa, finish second in New Hampshire.

Or she could let the bad boys of Clinton '92 take over the campaign and talk her into nosediving and letting her slip from bad to worse.

Remember that Bob Novak story? Novak was right. Those bad boys were busy cooking. Either Hillary did not know, or she acted like she did not know. I think she did not know. Only a few days later, the bad boys "hit" - mosquito bite to the Obama 2008 elephant, we did not even notice - with some little something on some PAC whatever.

The boys who made a career out of Clinton '92 need to wake up and realize that they are not going to go back into the mainstream any more than Bill Clinton is going to get a third term. Your time is passe. Make peace.

Yesterday they were talking about "electability" and I am thinking why are they doing our work for us? That is precisely the issue we want to raise against Hillary. Barack as nominee will carry 35 plus states. Hillary will barely win, if that. She is already trailing a-l-l Republicans in the polls.

Today they are digging "drugs," omigod. Drugs. Let me help you out here. I am a helping kind of guy. You are going to want to do some background research on this one to dig the dirt. I recommend flipping through the pages of the Barack Obama autobiography. I believe it is called Dreams From My Father, something like that. All the dirt's right in there. Go, be my guest.

These guys are unbelievable. They are getting desperate. And in their desperation they are sinking the Hillary ship faster than it deserves to.

One top Clinton aide yesterday was saying they would rather Edwards carry Iowa than Obama. Unbelievable. You mean you have so much leeway that you can decide if Obama or Edwards will carry Iowa. If you do have so much leeway, why don't you use it in Hillary's favor instead?

He even suggested doing a Gephardt to pull Barack down to make way for Edwards. Minus that Hillary finishes second. With that Gephardt play, Hillary is looking at third place or worse.

Hillary has to stay positive. If she has any chance of finishing first, that is the only way. If she has any chance of coming second, that is the only way. If she has any chance of becoming Barack's running mate, that is the only way.

If she goes negative now, I wish her all the best with her long career in the US Senate.

We are taking New York City on February 5.

But that is regardless of whatever happens.

We sure as hell are carrying South Carolina.

And while we are at it, we will also take Nevada. Thank you very much.

Hillary 2008 is daydreaming if it thinks it can lose the four January states and still carry February 5. We are taking Illinois, California and New York. Rudy thought of that strategy first, the February 5 strategy. He has since abandoned it. Smart guy.

The boys have been shifting the goal posts. First it was Iowa. Then they said they will make a final stand in New Hampshire. Mark Penn is now already talking about February 5 as the day when they make their final stand. He is right this time. Hillary 2008 is officially over on February 6.

In The News

GOP candidates strike optimistic tone in crucial Iowa debate CNN
ANALYSIS: Huckabee Shines in Lackluster Debate ABC News thoroughly uninteresting ..... nobody really engaged Huckabee, and he was able to speak (mostly unchallenged) in the forthright, plainspoken manner that's won him raves on the stump. ..... Iowans got an unfiltered, unchallenged look at this Huckabee guy who's been all over the news. ...... Mike Huckabee: Nothing happened to slow his momentum, and plenty happened to suggest that it will continue. ..... Alan Keyes: Seriously, why was he on the stage? ... The Des Moines Register: With apologies to my friends at this fine newspaper, the stilted format sapped anything interesting out of the room. A debate that could have gotten to the heart of the big divisions between the candidates instead devolved into a vessel for the delivery of pablum. And it was bad enough to let Keyes on the stage, but did they have to let him trample the time limits, too?
UPDATE 1-Republican rivals find lots of agreement in US debate Reuters
Clinton now faces tough path in New Hampshire
Reuters after seeing a big lead slip there, and a top aide denied reports of turmoil in her camp. ..... the former first lady has seen her double-digit lead vanish in New Hampshire. ..... A WMUR/CNN poll showed the New York senator leading Obama 31 percent to 30 percent in the northeastern state ...... three weeks to go until Iowa, Clinton suddenly faced the possibility of losing both of the earliest states ....... Bill Clinton, was alarmed by his wife's poll slide and -- according to one source -- has "literally dozens of ideas" on how to right the ship. ....... "She's in big trouble and she knows it" ..... staff purges might occur. .... said she believed Clinton could survive losing both Iowa and New Hampshire because of her large national lead and strong organization, but that she would need to rebound in South Carolina on January 26. ...... when polls show movement like this in New Hampshire, it is usually attributable to the state's large bloc of independent voters breaking one way or another. ..... The Obama campaign was bracing for negative attacks from the Clinton side heading into the final weeks
Clinton and Obama Camps Both Cheered by Polls Washington Post Long seen as a Clinton stronghold, New Hampshire has suddenly become a second competitive battleground in the Democratic nomination contest. The new poll showed Clinton now in a statistical tie with Obama, 31 percent to 30 percent. .......... Clinton was at 53 percent to 23 percent for Obama and 10 percent for John Edwards ...... Obama's campaign sent out an e-mail highlighting the New Hampshire results and a story warning of an imminent Clinton attack. ..... national polls historically have been far less valuable indicators of the state of play than are polls in the earliest states ........ electorates in places like Iowa and New Hampshire are far ahead of voters elsewhere in taking a measure of the candidates ....... and whose views of the race likely will be changed rapidly by the results in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. ...... Obama has faced a major hurdle because most voters don't really know him. ..... We are also the best organized in Feb 5 states, allowing us to take advantage of a shifting national dynamic. .... Nothing in the way the Clinton campaign is operating, however, suggests anything other than concern about the state of the race right now, regardless of national polls. If anything, the Penn memo was designed as a way to reassure nervous Clinton supporters ....... The Obama campaign clearly senses even more forward motion for their candidate than the dead-heat polls indicate -- and other signs on the ground here support that view. ...... The voters are soon to speak and there's never been a campaign in which their entry into the process, after months and months of inside chatter and analysis and predictions, hasn't changed things. Often in dramatic ways
Election 2008: Every woman's vote is fair game Kansas City Star
Hope Is Spreading Among Obama's Fans
CBS News nearly 30,000 -- huge for a primary campaign -- was an ocean of mostly black faces like hers but also many white ones. ..... "I'd never seen a crowd like that here before, ever, in a political rally," Green says. ..... She had planned to back Sen. Hillary Clinton. She wanted to vote for a winner; that seemed to be Clinton. She worried that perceptions of race would derail Obama's campaign, if not sooner, then surely later. But Sunday got her thinking. And Monday, she put her fears aside and declared herself "changed," saying, "I'm settled on Obama now." ....... Clinton, for a time, was the candidate of choice among African Americans. No more. ..... Obama leading Clinton among blacks 37 to 21 percent. ...... "Look, black folk had to fight, had to fight hard, to get a vote in the ballot box. We're pragmatic," Cobb-Hunter continues. "For a while black folk here in the South couldn't imagine that white folk would ever vote for a black man. But white America can. And black America is realizing that." ........ the campaign event of the year, eclipsing the Clintons' first dual appearance on the campaign trail at the Iowa State Fair in July. Not only because of the sheer vastness of the crowd, but also because of its symbolism, in light of America's ugly racial history. ....... Oprah's crossover racial appeal ....... a racially transcendent message. ...... To witness the Oprah-Obama show up close as it traveled from heavily white Des Moines to heavily black Columbia was to see that crossover appeal at work. ........ Are we over race, that still uncured boil on America's psyche? Are we ready to break from our racial and racist past? ..... When I think of Obama, I think of someone who's a change agent, someone who can lead change. Not just from the status quo in Washington -- you know, lobbyists having too much pull -- but from our history, our racial history. ........ Obama? Over Clinton? In Iowa? "I don't want to come off like I don't have faith in America, but I seriously thought that Hillary Clinton had a better chance being the first woman president than Barack Obama being the first black president," says Jones, who is black. ......... The past, as William Faulkner once observed, never really dies in the South. It's somehow always vividly, brazenly alive. It wasn't until 2000, after years of protest from the black community, that the Confederate flag atop the South Carolina statehouse was taken down. ....... a time when, right there on Highway 17 in Charleston, a service station had three bathrooms: one for white females, another for white males, and another for "coloreds," male and female. ....... has been cheering for Obama since the night she watched him give the keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention in 2004. Standing in the living room, eyes fixed on her TV, she wept as she listened.
Stars attract the crowds, but not the votes Hindustan Times
Clinton NH Official Warns Obama Will Be Attacked on Drug Use
Washington Post Shaheen said, he remains perplexed about why, at this fraught point in history, voters and the media are not giving more attention to experienced Democratic candidates such as Sens. Chris Dodd and Joe Biden .......... Shaheen, a lawyer and influential state power broker, mentioned as an example Obama's use of cocaine and marijuana as a young man, which Obama has been open about in his memoir and on the trail. ...... Shaheen, the husband of former N.H. governor Jeanne Shaheen
Yesterday Obama's electability, today his drug use Baltimore Sun
Poll puts Clinton, Obama in Granite State dead heat Boston Herald a steep decline from the double-digit advantage she held just two months ago. It comes just days after Obama appeared in the Granite State with talk show powerhouse Oprah Winfrey. ........ another New Hampshire poll shows Obama slightly ahead .... pegs Obama at 31 percent to Clinton’s 28 percent. ..... Recent media reports detail panic behind the scenes of the Clinton campaign, with former President Bill Clinton scrambling to figure out how to put his wife back on top in Iowa. ...... Clinton’s troubles come as her campaign unleashed caustic attacks on everything from Obama’s healthcare proposal to his kindergarten musings. ..... she made a major blunder earlier this month by publicly calling her newfound negative campaign against Obama “the fun part.” ..... In a Dec. 2 memo titled “Obama tries rewriting history again...” Clinton staffers seek to debunk Obama’s assertion that he is “not running to fulfill some long held plans” to be president. The evidence: “In kindergarten, Senator Obama wrote an essay titled ‘I want to become President,’” the memo reads before going on to quote Obama’s kindergarten teacher.
Obama, Clinton Tied in New Hampshire
The Associated Press
Inside Obama's Iowa Ground Game TIME At just 25 years old, Michael Blake may have more to do with Barack Obama's chances of becoming President than anyone besides the candidate himself. That may sound like a stretch, but Blake has the all-important job of bringing in new Iowa voters to caucus for the Illinois Senator. ...... Obama is spending an unprecedented amount of money and effort to turn out a wide cross section of new caucus-goers. ........ "This is the most extensive effort to reach out to new constituencies in the Iowa caucuses, I think, ever," says Blake, who comes from the Bronx and was in the first class of "Yes, We Can!" a program Obama started soon after he was elected to the Senate to train minorities to more effectively use the political system. ....... peer-to-peer contacts. Veterans call veterans, high school students call high school students ...... Latinos make up only 3% of Iowa's population of three million and there are only 67,000 blacks in the whole state ...... sacrifice an hour and a half of their time to argue politics with their neighbors ....... And while Obama could certainly suffer as surprising a defeat as Dean, his supporters believe his operation is very different. ....... "What's the difference? Organization!" ....... an Ames house party last month for a dozen undecided friends and neighbors. Harrington spent nearly two hours cajoling the group over wine and cheese to support Obama. "Dean never asked me to do anything but show up and caucus. This is my fourth one of these for Obama," Harrington said with a wave of his hand around the cozy living room. "And I've got another two this weekend." ....... Harrington's daughter, Caitlin, a freshman at the University of Iowa, organized 47 of her classmates to caucus at home — signing them up through "Rock the Caucus" on Facebook — and is working to find them all home precincts to go to during vacation. ....... campaign workers passed out some 50,000 fliers encouraging students from out of state to return to campus early to participate in the caucuses ....... Obama is also doing his best to appeal across party lines. He has been reaching out to Republican and independent voters who can change their registration at caucus sites by simply signing a letter of intent. ...... The hostess of the Ames house party, Andi Smith, was a former independent who twice voted for President Bush. She switched her registration to support Obama and claims a lot of independents and Republicans will be doing the same on caucus day. ...... Even voters who have seemingly made up their minds to support other Democrats are seen as fair game. ...... "The Obama campaign is very aggressive in asking folks if we're not people's first choice," said Gordon Fischer, a former Iowa Democratic Party state chairman who endorsed Obama two months ago. "The campaign follows up and asks if we can be their second choice."

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