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Showing posts with label Myanmar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Myanmar. Show all posts

Thursday, October 02, 2025

Myanmar: World's Deadliest Proxy Conflict


Burma (Myanmar) is often described as the “world’s deadliest proxy conflict” because it combines three overlapping layers of violence: an entrenched civil war, regional rivalries, and global power competition. Here’s why the label fits:


1. Longest Running Civil War in the World

  • Since independence in 1948, Burma has faced continuous armed insurgencies involving dozens of ethnic groups (Karen, Kachin, Shan, Rakhine, Chin, etc.) seeking autonomy or independence.

  • After the February 2021 coup, the military (Tatmadaw) reignited war against both pro-democracy forces and ethnic armed groups.

  • By 2025, the country has fragmented into multiple war zones with thousands of armed clashes every year.


2. High Civilian Death Toll

  • Villages are bombed, food is weaponized, and forced conscription is common.

  • UN and NGOs estimate tens of thousands of civilian deaths since the coup, with millions displaced—a scale comparable to Syria or Sudan.

  • Systematic use of airstrikes on civilian areas makes it one of the deadliest active wars.


3. Proxy Dynamics: Regional Powers

  • China backs some ethnic groups near its border and maintains ties with the junta to protect pipelines, trade, and influence.

  • India hedges, supporting both the junta (for security along the Northeast border) and some opposition actors.

  • Thailand and ASEAN neighbors are caught in refugee flows and border trade.

  • Russia supplies weapons to the junta (fighter jets, helicopters) in exchange for diplomatic alignment.

This makes Myanmar a chessboard for regional rivalries, where no single actor wants the others to dominate.


4. Proxy Dynamics: Global Powers

  • The United States and EU back the National Unity Government (NUG) and pro-democracy activists rhetorically and with some aid.

  • China and Russia shield the junta at the UN Security Council.

  • The battlefield sees Chinese weapons with junta troops, Russian aircraft bombing rebels, Western funding to activists, and Indian/Thai cross-border supplies.

  • It resembles Cold War–style proxy struggles but concentrated in one fragile state.


5. Criminal Economies and Militias

  • Myanmar is the world’s largest source of methamphetamine and heroin exports.

  • Warlords, militias, and proxy groups fund themselves through narcotics, jade, timber, and cyber-fraud.

  • Global crime networks therefore overlap with the war, deepening instability.


6. Why “Deadliest”?

  • Unlike other proxy wars (Ukraine, Syria, Yemen), Burma combines maximum fragmentation (dozens of armed actors), minimal international media coverage, and intense foreign interference.

  • Civilians suffer the brunt: constant displacement, massacres, and famine risks.

  • Its casualty rate and humanitarian collapse—largely underreported—make experts call it the “deadliest proxy conflict” in today’s world.


In short: Burma is called the world’s deadliest proxy conflict because it is where the world’s longest civil war, foreign power rivalries (China, U.S., India, Russia, ASEAN), and narco-economics collide—producing immense civilian suffering and making the country a battlefield for others’ interests.


बर्मा (म्यांमार) को अक्सर “दुनिया का सबसे घातक प्रॉक्सी संघर्ष” कहा जाता है क्योंकि इसमें तीन परतों में हिंसा शामिल है: एक लंबा गृहयुद्ध, क्षेत्रीय प्रतिद्वंद्विता और वैश्विक शक्तियों की खींचतान। यहाँ विस्तार से कारण दिए गए हैं:


1. दुनिया का सबसे लंबा चला गृहयुद्ध

  • 1948 में स्वतंत्रता के बाद से बर्मा में लगातार सशस्त्र विद्रोह होते रहे हैं, जिनमें दर्जनों जातीय समूह (करेन, कचिन, शान, राखाइन, चिन आदि) स्वायत्तता या स्वतंत्रता की मांग कर रहे हैं।

  • फरवरी 2021 की तख़्तापलट के बाद सेना (तत्मादॉ) ने प्रजातंत्र समर्थक ताक़तों और जातीय सशस्त्र समूहों पर बड़े पैमाने पर युद्ध छेड़ दिया।

  • 2025 तक देश कई युद्ध क्षेत्रों में बंट चुका है, जहाँ हर साल हज़ारों लड़ाइयाँ हो रही हैं।


2. उच्च नागरिक मौतें

  • गाँवों पर बमबारी की जाती है, भोजन को हथियार बनाया जाता है और जबरन भर्ती कराई जाती है।

  • संयुक्त राष्ट्र और एनजीओ का अनुमान है कि तख़्तापलट के बाद से दसियों हज़ार नागरिक मारे जा चुके हैं, और लाखों लोग विस्थापित हुए हैं—पैमाना सीरिया या सूडान जैसा।

  • नागरिक इलाक़ों पर हवाई हमले इसे दुनिया के सबसे घातक सक्रिय युद्धों में से एक बना देते हैं।


3. क्षेत्रीय शक्तियों की प्रॉक्सी भूमिका

  • चीन अपनी सीमा के पास कुछ जातीय समूहों को समर्थन देता है और अपने व्यापार व पाइपलाइन हितों के लिए जुंटा (सैन्य शासन) से संबंध बनाए रखता है।

  • भारत सुरक्षा कारणों से (पूर्वोत्तर सीमा) सेना से संबंध रखता है लेकिन कुछ विपक्षी ताक़तों को भी सहयोग देता है।

  • थाईलैंड और ASEAN देश शरणार्थी संकट और सीमा पार व्यापार में उलझे हुए हैं।

  • रूस जुंटा को लड़ाकू विमान और हेलीकॉप्टर जैसी हथियार प्रणाली देता है।

इससे म्यांमार क्षेत्रीय ताक़तों के लिए शतरंज का मैदान बन गया है।


4. वैश्विक शक्तियों की प्रॉक्सी भूमिका

  • अमेरिका और यूरोपीय संघ राष्ट्रीय एकता सरकार (NUG) और लोकतंत्र समर्थकों को कूटनीतिक और वित्तीय सहायता देते हैं।

  • चीन और रूस संयुक्त राष्ट्र में जुंटा को ढाल देते हैं।

  • युद्ध के मैदान में तस्वीर उलझी हुई है—जुंटा के पास चीनी हथियार, रूसी विमान, कार्यकर्ताओं को पश्चिमी सहायता, और भारत-थाईलैंड से सीमा पार आपूर्ति

  • यह हालात शीतयुद्ध काल की तरह हैं, लेकिन एक ही नाज़ुक देश में केंद्रित।


5. अपराधी अर्थव्यवस्था और मिलिशिया

  • म्यांमार मेथामफेटामिन और हेरोइन का दुनिया का सबसे बड़ा स्रोत है।

  • युद्ध सरदार, मिलिशिया और प्रॉक्सी समूह नशे की तस्करी, जेड, लकड़ी और साइबर अपराध से वित्त जुटाते हैं।

  • वैश्विक अपराध नेटवर्क इस युद्ध से जुड़कर अस्थिरता को और गहरा करते हैं।


6. क्यों “सबसे घातक”?

  • अन्य प्रॉक्सी युद्धों (यूक्रेन, सीरिया, यमन) से अलग, बर्मा में सबसे अधिक विखंडन (दर्जनों हथियारबंद गुट), सबसे कम मीडिया कवरेज, और सबसे ज़्यादा बाहरी हस्तक्षेप है।

  • सबसे ज़्यादा पीड़ा नागरिकों को झेलनी पड़ती है: लगातार विस्थापन, नरसंहार और अकाल का ख़तरा।

  • इसकी मौत दर और मानवीय तबाही—अक्सर रिपोर्ट तक नहीं होती—विशेषज्ञों को इसे आज का “दुनिया का सबसे घातक प्रॉक्सी संघर्ष” कहने पर मजबूर करती है।


संक्षेप में: बर्मा को दुनिया का सबसे घातक प्रॉक्सी संघर्ष इसलिए कहा जाता है क्योंकि यह वह जगह है जहाँ दुनिया का सबसे लंबा गृहयुद्ध, विदेशी शक्तियों की प्रतिस्पर्धा (चीन, अमेरिका, भारत, रूस, ASEAN), और नशीले पदार्थों की अर्थव्यवस्था आपस में टकराते हैं—जिससे देश दूसरों के हितों की लड़ाई का मैदान बन जाता है।



Here’s a structured comparative table that places Burma (Myanmar) alongside Syria, Ukraine, and Yemen — showing at a glance why Myanmar is often called the “world’s deadliest proxy conflict.”


Comparative Table: Deadliest Proxy Wars

Category Myanmar (Burma) Syria Ukraine Yemen
Conflict Start 1948 (world’s longest-running civil war, intensified after 2021 coup) 2011 (Arab Spring uprising → multi-front war) 2014 (Crimea annexation), escalated 2022 full invasion 2014 (Houthi takeover → Saudi-led intervention 2015)
Main Local Actors Junta (Tatmadaw), National Unity Government (NUG), dozens of ethnic armed groups (Karen, Kachin, Shan, Rakhine, Chin, etc.) Assad regime, ISIS, Syrian Democratic Forces, opposition militias Ukrainian gov., Territorial Defense Forces Houthis, Yemen Gov., Southern Transitional Council
Proxy Powers Involved China, India, Thailand, Russia, USA, EU, ASEAN USA, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Gulf states, Hezbollah USA, NATO, EU vs. Russia, Iran (limited) Saudi Arabia, UAE vs. Iran, with US and Western backing
Weapons Supply Russia (jets, helis), China (arms), India/Thailand (cross-border), West (support to NUG) Russia (airpower, arms), USA (arms to rebels early on), Iran (to Assad/Hezbollah), Turkey (to rebels) NATO/EU heavy weapons, drones, missiles vs. Russia’s full arsenal Saudi-led coalition (US weapons), Iran (to Houthis)
Civilian Death Toll Tens of thousands killed since 2021 coup; hundreds of thousands over decades ~500,000+ since 2011 ~150,000+ (combat and civilians) since 2022 ~377,000 (direct + indirect, famine, disease)
Displacement ~3 million displaced internally + refugees (esp. Thailand, India, Bangladesh) ~13 million displaced/refugees ~7 million displaced (internal + external) ~4.5 million displaced
Humanitarian Crisis Severe: famine risk, airstrikes on villages, internet blackout zones, world’s largest meth & heroin trade financing war Severe: destroyed cities, refugee exodus to Europe, chemical weapons use Severe: infrastructure collapse, energy crises, refugee flow to Europe Severe: famine, cholera epidemic, fuel blockade, dependence on aid
Fragmentation of Armed Groups Extremely fragmented: dozens of ethnic armies, militias, PDFs (People’s Defense Forces) → most fractured battlefield Fragmented: regime vs. multiple rebel factions + ISIS Relatively binary: Ukraine vs. Russia (but with some partisan groups) 3-way: Houthis, Yemen Gov., separatists, with shifting alliances
Media Attention Very low global coverage despite scale High (ISIS, refugee crisis) Extremely high (frontline of NATO–Russia clash) Medium (covered in Gulf/UN but overshadowed by Ukraine)
Duration / Persistence 77+ years ongoing (world’s longest civil war, still intensifying) 14 years 11 years (modern phase) 11 years
Why Deadliest? Longest conflict, most fragmented, foreign powers from every direction, massive civilian suffering but least reported High-intensity, but mostly stabilized (Assad in control) High-tech war with global stakes, but binary and concentrated Severe humanitarian collapse, but conflict is narrower compared to Myanmar

🔑 Key Takeaways

  • Myanmar stands out because:

    • It is the longest-running civil war in the world (77+ years).

    • It has the highest level of armed fragmentation (dozens of groups, not just 2–3 sides).

    • It is a regional and global proxy battlefield with China, Russia, India, USA, ASEAN all entangled.

    • Despite enormous civilian suffering, it gets the least international coverage compared to Syria, Ukraine, and Yemen.



यहाँ एक संरचित तुलनात्मक तालिका है जो बर्मा (म्यांमार) की सीरिया, यूक्रेन और यमन से तुलना करती है — और दिखाती है कि क्यों म्यांमार को अक्सर “दुनिया का सबसे घातक प्रॉक्सी संघर्ष” कहा जाता है।


तुलनात्मक तालिका: सबसे घातक प्रॉक्सी युद्ध

श्रेणी म्यांमार (बर्मा) सीरिया यूक्रेन यमन
संघर्ष की शुरुआत 1948 (विश्व का सबसे लंबा गृहयुद्ध, 2021 की तख़्तापलट के बाद तेज़) 2011 (अरब स्प्रिंग → बहु-मोर्चा युद्ध) 2014 (क्रीमिया कब्ज़ा), 2022 में पूर्ण युद्ध 2014 (हौथी विद्रोह → 2015 सऊदी हस्तक्षेप)
मुख्य स्थानीय पक्ष सेना (तत्मादॉ), राष्ट्रीय एकता सरकार (NUG), दर्जनों जातीय सशस्त्र समूह (करेन, कचिन, शान, राखाइन, चिन आदि) असद शासन, आईएसआईएस, सीरियन डेमोक्रेटिक फोर्सेस, विपक्षी गुट यूक्रेनी सरकार, टेरिटोरियल डिफेंस फोर्सेस हौथी, यमन सरकार, साउदर्न ट्रांज़िशनल काउंसिल
प्रॉक्सी शक्तियाँ चीन, भारत, थाईलैंड, रूस, अमेरिका, यूरोपीय संघ, ASEAN अमेरिका, रूस, ईरान, तुर्की, खाड़ी देश, हिज़्बुल्लाह अमेरिका, नाटो, यूरोपीय संघ बनाम रूस, (सीमित रूप से ईरान) सऊदी अरब, यूएई बनाम ईरान (अमेरिका व पश्चिमी समर्थन)
हथियार आपूर्ति रूस (लड़ाकू विमान, हेलिकॉप्टर), चीन (हथियार), भारत/थाईलैंड (सीमापार), पश्चिम (NUG को समर्थन) रूस (हवाई हमले, हथियार), अमेरिका (विद्रोहियों को शुरुआत में हथियार), ईरान (असद/हिज़्बुल्लाह), तुर्की (विद्रोही गुट) नाटो/ईयू (भारी हथियार, ड्रोन, मिसाइल) बनाम रूस का पूरा शस्त्रागार सऊदी गठबंधन (अमेरिकी हथियार), ईरान (हौथियों को)
नागरिक मौतें केवल 2021 के बाद से ही दसियों हज़ार मौतें; दशकों में लाखों ~5,00,000+ (2011 से) ~1,50,000+ (2022 से अब तक) ~3,77,000 (सीधी + परोक्ष, भुखमरी व बीमारी से)
विस्थापन ~30 लाख लोग (आंतरिक + शरणार्थी: थाईलैंड, भारत, बांग्लादेश) ~1.3 करोड़ शरणार्थी/विस्थापित ~70 लाख विस्थापित (आंतरिक + बाहरी) ~45 लाख विस्थापित
मानवीय संकट भयानक: अकाल का ख़तरा, गाँवों पर हवाई हमले, इंटरनेट ब्लैकआउट, विश्व का सबसे बड़ा मेथ/हेरोइन व्यापार युद्ध को वित्त देता है भयानक: नष्ट शहर, यूरोप में शरणार्थी संकट, रासायनिक हथियार भयानक: ढहा हुआ बुनियादी ढाँचा, ऊर्जा संकट, यूरोप में शरणार्थी भयानक: अकाल, हैजा महामारी, ईंधन नाकाबंदी, विदेशी सहायता पर निर्भर
सशस्त्र गुटों का विखंडन अत्यधिक विखंडित: दर्जनों जातीय सेनाएँ, मिलिशिया, पीडीएफ (People’s Defense Forces) विखंडित: शासन बनाम विद्रोही गुट + आईएसआईएस अपेक्षाकृत द्विध्रुवीय: यूक्रेन बनाम रूस तीन तरफ़ा: हौथी, यमन सरकार, अलगाववादी
मीडिया कवरेज बहुत कम वैश्विक कवरेज, भले ही पैमाना विशाल हो बहुत अधिक (आईएसआईएस, शरणार्थी संकट) अत्यधिक (नाटो–रूस टकराव का केंद्र) मध्यम (यूक्रेन से ढका हुआ)
अवधि/लंबाई 77+ वर्ष (विश्व का सबसे लंबा गृहयुद्ध) 14 वर्ष 11 वर्ष (आधुनिक चरण) 11 वर्ष
क्यों “सबसे घातक”? सबसे लंबा युद्ध, सबसे अधिक विखंडन, सभी ओर से विदेशी हस्तक्षेप, नागरिक सबसे अधिक पीड़ित, लेकिन सबसे कम रिपोर्टिंग तीव्र, पर अब स्थिर (असद नियंत्रण में) उच्च तकनीक वाला युद्ध, पर द्विपक्षीय मानवीय संकट गहरा, पर म्यांमार जितना विखंडित नहीं

🔑 मुख्य निष्कर्ष

  • म्यांमार सबसे अलग है क्योंकि:

    • यह विश्व का सबसे लंबा गृहयुद्ध है (77+ वर्ष)।

    • इसमें सबसे ज़्यादा सशस्त्र गुट और विखंडन है।

    • यह क्षेत्रीय और वैश्विक शक्तियों का प्रॉक्सी युद्धक्षेत्र है (चीन, रूस, भारत, अमेरिका, ASEAN)।

    • भारी नागरिक पीड़ा के बावजूद इसे सबसे कम अंतर्राष्ट्रीय कवरेज मिलता है।




Sunday, May 11, 2025

Ongoing Conflicts Around The World



Below is a list of major wars and armed conflicts around the world as of May 2025, based on available data from sources like the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, ACLED, Crisis Group, and others. Each conflict includes a brief description, duration, causes, chances of resolution, and potential primary peacemakers. Note that the list focuses on significant ongoing conflicts with at least 100 direct violent deaths per year, as per the Uppsala criteria, and excludes smaller-scale violence or criminal gang activity unless it involves significant military or paramilitary engagement. Due to the complexity and number of conflicts, there is a  summary below of key details concisely while covering the most prominent cases. For some conflicts, precise data on fatalities or resolution prospects may be limited, so there will be informed estimates based on trends.


1. Russia-Ukraine War
  • Description: A full-scale interstate war following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, involving intense fighting in eastern and southern Ukraine, with Russian territorial gains and Ukrainian counteroffensives. It includes air strikes, drone warfare, and significant civilian casualties.
  • Duration: Since February 24, 2022 (escalation of a conflict ongoing since 2014 with Russia’s annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk). ~3 years for the current phase; ~11 years total.
  • Causes: Russian territorial ambitions, geopolitical rivalry (NATO expansion concerns), nationalist narratives, and control over eastern Ukraine’s resources and strategic areas. Ukraine fights for sovereignty and territorial integrity.
  • Chances of Resolution: Low in the near term. Russia’s territorial gains and maximalist demands (e.g., recognition of annexed territories) clash with Ukraine’s existential need to resist. A ceasefire favorable to Moscow is possible in 2025, but a lasting peace deal is unlikely due to irreconcilable goals.
  • Primary Peacemakers: United States, European Union, Turkey, and potentially China could mediate. The UN and International Criminal Court have roles but limited influence. Neutral countries like Switzerland or Qatar may facilitate talks.

2. Israel-Hamas War (Gaza)
  • Description: A high-intensity conflict centered in Gaza, with Israeli military operations against Hamas following the October 7, 2023, attack. Involves airstrikes, ground operations, and a severe humanitarian crisis, with over 22,000 Palestinian deaths by late 2023.
  • Duration: Current phase since October 7, 2023 (~1.5 years), but part of a decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict rooted in 1948 and recurring escalations.
  • Causes: Hamas’s attack (killing over 1,000 Israelis, taking hostages) aimed to disrupt Israel’s normalization with Arab states and assert Palestinian resistance. Israel seeks to eliminate Hamas’s military capacity and secure its borders. Root causes include occupation, settlements, and Palestinian statehood aspirations.
  • Chances of Resolution: Low. Israel’s goal of dismantling Hamas is ambitious, and Hamas’s resilience and regional support (e.g., Iran) complicate outcomes. No ceasefire is in place, and Gaza’s humanitarian crisis worsens. Long-term peace requires addressing Palestinian statehood, unlikely soon.
  • Primary Peacemakers: Egypt, Qatar, and the United States have mediated past ceasefires. The UN and EU could push humanitarian pauses, but regional powers like Saudi Arabia may influence broader talks.

3. Sudan Civil War
  • Description: A brutal civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo. Fighting has displaced 12 million and caused famine in Darfur, with staggering sexual violence.
  • Duration: Since April 2023 (~2 years).
  • Causes: Power struggle after the 2019 ouster of Omar al-Bashir. SAF and RSF, former allies, vie for control of Sudan’s government and resources. Ethnic and regional divisions, plus foreign backing (e.g., UAE for RSF, Egypt for SAF), fuel the conflict.
  • Chances of Resolution: Very low. The RSF’s territorial gains and lack of diplomatic progress hinder ceasefires. The conflict risks fracturing Sudan further. External sponsors exacerbate the stalemate.
  • Primary Peacemakers: African Union, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and the UN could mediate. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as key backers, are critical but conflicted due to their own agendas.

4. Myanmar Civil War
  • Description: A multi-front civil war pitting the military junta against ethnic armed groups and new resistance forces (People’s Defense Forces) following the 2021 coup. Over 3 million are displaced, with widespread poverty and infrastructure collapse.
  • Duration: Since February 2021 (~4 years), though ethnic conflicts predate the coup, some lasting decades.
  • Causes: The military’s coup ousted the elected government, sparking nationwide resistance. Ethnic groups fight for autonomy, while resistance groups seek to topple the junta. China’s support for the junta and regional rivalries complicate dynamics.
  • Chances of Resolution: Low. The junta faces losses but retains Chinese backing, while resistance groups lack unity. A 2025 election, if held, may escalate violence.
  • Primary Peacemakers: ASEAN, China, and India could mediate, but ASEAN’s efforts have been ineffective. The UN has limited leverage due to vetoes by China and Russia.

5. Mexican Drug War
  • Description: An ongoing conflict between the Mexican government and drug cartels (e.g., Sinaloa, Jalisco New Generation), with cartels fighting each other for control of trafficking routes. Violence includes assassinations, massacres, and civilian targeting.
  • Duration: Since December 2006 (~18 years), when the government launched a crackdown on cartels.
  • Causes: Cartels seek economic control over drug trade (especially fentanyl), fueled by U.S. demand. Corruption, weak governance, and U.S.-supplied weapons sustain violence. Political instability and elections exacerbate tensions.
  • Chances of Resolution: Low. Fragmentation of cartels into smaller, violent groups and systemic corruption hinder progress. Non-military approaches (e.g., legalization, social programs) are debated but unimplemented.
  • Primary Peacemakers: Mexico’s government, with U.S. cooperation on drug policy and arms control, could drive change. Civil society and international NGOs may push alternative strategies.

6. Yemeni Civil War
  • Description: A complex conflict involving the Houthi movement, the internationally recognized Yemeni government, and a Saudi-led coalition. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have escalated tensions with Western powers.
  • Duration: Since September 2014 (~10.5 years), with Saudi intervention since 2015.
  • Causes: Houthi takeover of Sanaa sparked a power struggle, fueled by sectarian (Shia-Sunni) tensions, Iranian support for Houthis, and Saudi/UAE interests in regional dominance. Economic collapse and tribal rivalries worsen the crisis.
  • Chances of Resolution: Moderate. A UN-brokered truce in 2023 showed progress, but Houthi maritime attacks and external backing (Iran, Saudi Arabia) complicate peace. A roadmap for ceasefire exists but is fragile.
  • Primary Peacemakers: UN, Oman, and Saudi Arabia are key mediators. Iran’s involvement is crucial but challenging due to its rivalry with Saudi Arabia.

7. Sahel Conflicts (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger)
  • Description: Jihadist insurgencies by groups like JNIM (al-Qaeda-affiliated) and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara against military juntas and local forces. Violence includes civilian massacres and resource conflicts.
  • Duration: Since 2012 (13 years), with escalation after 2021 coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
  • Causes: Jihadist groups exploit weak governance, poverty, and ethnic tensions. Military juntas’ aggressive tactics and Russian mercenary involvement (post-French withdrawal) fuel violence. Climate change and resource scarcity exacerbate local conflicts.
  • Chances of Resolution: Low. Jihadist groups are resilient, and juntas prioritize military solutions over governance. Regional cooperation is weak after the collapse of French-led initiatives.
  • Primary Peacemakers: ECOWAS, African Union, and the UN could mediate, but juntas resist external influence. Algeria and Morocco may play roles, but Russian presence complicates efforts.

8. Democratic Republic of Congo (M23 Conflict)
  • Description: Fighting in eastern DRC between the M23 rebel group, backed by Rwanda, and the Congolese army (FARDC) with allied militias (Wazalendo). Clashes displace millions and threaten regional stability.
  • Duration: Current M23 escalation since late 2021 (~3.5 years), but eastern DRC conflicts persist since the 1990s.
  • Causes: M23 seeks influence and control over resource-rich areas, with Rwanda’s alleged support tied to security and economic interests. Ethnic tensions and weak governance fuel violence. Regional rivalries (Rwanda vs. DRC) sustain the conflict.
  • Chances of Resolution: Low. Peace agreements are fragile due to mutual distrust and proxy warfare. Continued M23 advances risk spoiling talks.
  • Primary Peacemakers: African Union, East African Community (EAC), and Angola could mediate. Rwanda and DRC must engage directly, but geopolitical tensions hinder progress.

9. Somalia Insurgency
  • Description: Al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda-affiliated group, fights the Somali government and clan militias, controlling rural areas and conducting urban attacks. Recent Al-Shabaab gains (e.g., Adan Yabal) challenge government control.
  • Duration: Since 2006 (19 years).
  • Causes: Al-Shabaab seeks to impose strict Islamist rule, exploiting clan divisions and government weakness. Foreign interventions (e.g., AMISOM, U.S. airstrikes) and resource competition sustain violence.
  • Chances of Resolution: Low. Al-Shabaab’s resilience and government’s reliance on external support limit progress. Political divisions over 2025-2026 elections may escalate fighting.
  • Primary Peacemakers: African Union, UN, and Turkey could mediate. Ethiopia and Kenya, as regional powers, are key but face their own security challenges.

10. Haiti Gang Violence
  • Description: Gangs control much of Port-au-Prince, fighting each other and security forces, causing widespread displacement and humanitarian crises. Not a traditional war but meets conflict criteria due to scale.
  • Duration: Escalated since 2021 (~4 years), with roots in decades of instability.
  • Causes: Political vacuum after President Moïse’s 2021 assassination, economic collapse, and gang empowerment through arms trafficking. Gangs vie for territorial and economic control.
  • Chances of Resolution: Moderate. International support (e.g., Kenyan-led UN mission) could stabilize areas, but governance reforms are needed. Gangs’ fragmentation may aid negotiations.
  • Primary Peacemakers: UN, United States, and Caribbean Community (CARICOM). Kenya and Brazil, as mission contributors, are key.

11. Syria Conflict
  • Description: A fragmented conflict with Syrian government forces, backed by Russia and Iran, fighting rebel groups (e.g., Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) and Turkish-backed factions. Recent rebel offensives have destabilized Assad’s control.
  • Duration: Since March 2011 (~14 years).
  • Causes: Initially a civil war against Assad’s regime, now a proxy conflict involving Turkey, Russia, Iran, and the U.S. Territorial control, sectarian divides, and foreign interests drive violence.
  • Chances of Resolution: Low. Assad’s weakened position and external actors’ competing agendas (e.g., Turkey vs. Russia) make peace elusive. Rebel gains may force talks but risk escalation.
  • Primary Peacemakers: UN, Turkey, Russia, and Iran. Qatar and Saudi Arabia could facilitate regional dialogue.

12. Ethiopia (Amhara and Oromia Conflicts)
  • Description: Internal conflicts involving Amhara militias (Fano) and Oromo Liberation Army against the Ethiopian government. Violence stems from ethnic and political grievances.
  • Duration: Amhara conflict since 2023 (2 years); Oromia since 2018 (7 years).
  • Causes: Ethnic federalism disputes, marginalization claims, and resistance to Abiy Ahmed’s centralization. Resource competition and historical grievances fuel fighting.
  • Chances of Resolution: Moderate. The 2022 Tigray ceasefire shows dialogue potential, but Amhara and Oromo distrust complicates talks.
  • Primary Peacemakers: African Union, IGAD, and Ethiopian civil society. The U.S. and EU could support inclusive dialogue.

Other Notable Conflicts
Due to space constraints, smaller conflicts (100–1,000 deaths/year) are summarized:
  • Colombia (ELN and FARC Dissidents): Ongoing since 1964, with ~1,000 deaths/year. Drug trafficking and territorial control drive violence. Peace talks with ELN have potential (moderate resolution chances). Mediators: Colombia government, Norway, Cuba.
  • Nigeria (Boko Haram, ISWAP, Herder-Farmer Clashes): Since ~2009, with ~1,000–10,000 deaths/year. Jihadist insurgency and resource conflicts. Low resolution chances due to governance issues. Mediators: ECOWAS, Nigeria government.
  • India-Pakistan (Kashmir): Intermittent since 1947, with recent escalations (e.g., May 2025 missile strikes). Territorial and nationalist disputes. Low resolution chances without major diplomacy. Mediators: UN, neutral powers like Norway.
  • Great Lakes Region (Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda): Proxy conflicts and ethnic violence since the 1990s. Low resolution chances due to regional rivalries. Mediators: AU, EAC.

Notes
  • Total Conflicts: ~52 countries host armed conflicts, with 4 major wars (>10,000 deaths/year), 20 high-intensity conflicts (1,000–9,999 deaths), and ~28 lower-intensity conflicts (100–999 deaths).
  • Global Trends: Conflicts are increasingly internationalized, with 92 countries involved externally. Resolution is harder due to fewer peace agreements (4% of conflicts end this way vs. 23% in the 1970s).
  • Data Gaps: Exact casualty figures and resolution prospects vary due to underreporting and fluid dynamics. I’ve used conservative estimates from ACLED, SIPRI, and Crisis Group.
  • Peacemaking Challenges: External powers (e.g., Russia, China, U.S.) often prioritize strategic interests over peace, and regional organizations lack resources.