Barackface: Russia

Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts

Sunday, July 06, 2025

How 100,000 Drones Could Reshape the Russia-Ukraine War: A Strategic Analysis

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly emphasized the pivotal role that drones play in Ukraine’s defense strategy against Russia’s full-scale invasion. The potential deployment of 100,000 drones would mark a major escalation in asymmetric warfare. However, the scale of impact would depend on various factors—drone types, operational strategies, Russian countermeasures, and geopolitical context. Based on current data and the evolving battlefield, here’s an in-depth analysis of what such a drone campaign could achieve:

1. Scale and Nature of Damage

Destruction of High-Value Military Assets:
Ukraine’s “Operation Spider’s Web” in June 2025 showcased the potency of drone strikes. In that operation, 117 drones were reported to have damaged or destroyed 13–41 Russian aircraft, including strategic bombers such as the Tu-95 and Tu-22M, inflicting an estimated $7 billion in losses. Extrapolating from this, a fleet of 100,000 drones could:
- Target thousands of aircraft (bombers, fighters, surveillance planes).
- Destroy or disable armored vehicles, including tanks and APCs.
- Strike command and control centers, ammunition depots, and fuel storage facilities.
Personnel Casualties and Operational Disruption:
FPV (first-person-view) and kamikaze drones have reportedly accounted for 60–70% of Russian equipment losses and up to 80% of battlefield casualties in certain areas. A full-scale drone offensive could:
- Disrupt supply chains.
- Target infantry concentrations and artillery positions.
- Sever battlefield communications and resupply routes.
Strategic Strikes Deep into Russia:
Ukraine has developed long-range drones capable of striking targets up to 3,000 km away. Previous strikes have hit refineries in Murmansk and Siberia, highlighting Ukraine’s reach. A drone force of this size could:
- Repeatedly hit airfields, refineries, and arms factories far behind enemy lines.
- Force Russia to reallocate critical air defense and intelligence assets.

2. Economic and Strategic Impact

Cost-Efficiency:
Ukrainian drones, costing between $400–$1,000, can destroy assets worth millions or billions. For example, a Tu-95 bomber costs over $100 million.
- The estimated cost for 100,000 drones: $40 million to $100 million.
- Potential damage inflicted: Tens to hundreds of billions in destroyed Russian military hardware and industrial capacity.
Attrition and Resource Drain on Russia:
With drone launches already exceeding 1,000 per week, Russian air defenses are strained. A leap to 100,000 drones would:
- Overwhelm Russian electronic warfare systems and missile interceptors.
- Force Russia to burn through expensive counter-drone measures (e.g., $130,000 per Coyote interceptor).
- Divert resources from ground operations to homeland defense.
Psychological and Political Fallout:
Zelensky has stated that these drone campaigns highlight Russia’s vulnerabilities and aim to “push it toward diplomacy.” A sustained drone assault could:
- Shake confidence in the Kremlin’s ability to defend its territory.
- Undermine morale among Russian troops and the public.
- Pressure Putin domestically and internationally as infrastructure and symbolic targets are repeatedly hit.

3. Tactical and Operational Advantages

Swarm Deployment and Precision Strikes:
Large swarms can overwhelm defenses. FPV drones are now regularly used to:
- Hunt tanks, artillery, and radar systems.
- Execute precision strikes on dug-in positions with minimal collateral damage.
Real-Time Reconnaissance and Targeting:
Recon drones offer near-constant aerial surveillance. When paired with artillery or kamikaze drones, they:
- Enable highly accurate “sensor-to-shooter” loops.
- Expand contested no-man’s-land zones by making static positions untenable.
Naval Warfare:
Ukraine’s naval drones, including the “Sea Baby”, have effectively neutralized Russia’s Black Sea Fleet near Ukrainian shores. Adding drone boats or amphibious drones to the mix could:
- Harass Russian naval resupply lines.
- Blockade key ports.
- Threaten commercial and military shipping in contested waters.

4. Limitations and Russian Countermeasures

Electronic Warfare and Jamming:
Russia has adapted quickly, using jamming, spoofing, and advanced EW systems. Ukraine reportedly loses 10,000 drones per month to EW alone. To sustain a 100,000-drone campaign:
- Ukraine would need AI-guided, anti-jamming navigation systems (e.g., neural networks).
- Drone redundancy and fail-safe programming would be crucial.
Production and Logistical Hurdles:
While Ukraine produced over 1 million drones in 2024 and targets 4–5 million in 2025, deploying 100,000 drones:
- Requires massive logistical coordination.
- Needs trained operators, robust supply chains, and secure communication networks.
- Could be hampered by component shortages (especially if reliant on Chinese parts or foreign electronics).
Risk of Russian Escalation:
After Ukraine’s June 2025 drone strike, Russia retaliated with 479–550 drones and missiles, mainly targeting civilian energy infrastructure.
- A larger drone campaign could prompt more devastating counterattacks.
- U.S. officials have warned of Russia possibly expanding its target list or revisiting nuclear posturing, especially if Western systems are implicated.

5. Strategic Vision Behind Zelensky’s Push

Asymmetric Warfare Doctrine:
Ukraine compensates for its inferior airpower and artillery through scalable, affordable drone warfare.
- Zelensky’s call for 100,000 drones, supported by allies like the UK, reflects this strategy of technological offset.
International Support and Production Partnerships:
Ukraine’s efforts are bolstered by partnerships with domestic firms like Skyeton and foreign companies like Swift Beat. However:
- U.S. aid diversions (e.g., 20,000 anti-drone missiles sent to the Middle East) could delay scaling up.
- Long-term self-reliance in drone manufacturing is now seen as a strategic imperative.
Long-Term Military and Diplomatic Implications:
- Sustained drone pressure could deter Russian offensives, forcing Moscow into a defensive posture.
- Continuous strikes on energy or symbolic targets could weaken Russia’s international position without triggering full-scale NATO involvement.
- However, the Kremlin may react more aggressively if it perceives Western complicity or existential threats to its nuclear assets.

Conclusion

A fleet of 100,000 drones could inflict devastating material, operational, and psychological damage on the Russian military. From destroying billions in equipment and decimating supply lines to weakening morale and forcing political recalculations, such a campaign aligns with Ukraine’s asymmetric strategy. Yet, logistical burdens, Russian countermeasures, and the risk of escalation introduce significant challenges.

The outcome hinges on drone type and technology, deployment strategy, and Western support. If effectively executed, it could mark a turning point in the war and bring Zelensky closer to his stated goal: forcing Russia to the negotiating table.

Sources:

100,000 ड्रोन कैसे रूस-यूक्रेन युद्ध को बदल सकते हैं: एक रणनीतिक विश्लेषण

यूक्रेनी राष्ट्रपति वोलोदिमिर ज़ेलेंस्की बार-बार इस बात पर ज़ोर दे चुके हैं कि ड्रोन यूक्रेन की रक्षा रणनीति में एक केंद्रीय भूमिका निभा रहे हैं। अगर यूक्रेन 100,000 ड्रोन तैनात करता है, तो यह विषम युद्ध (asymmetric warfare) में एक नया मोड़ ला सकता है। हालाँकि, इस तरह की रणनीति की प्रभावशीलता इस बात पर निर्भर करेगी कि ड्रोन किस प्रकार के हैं, उनका संचालन कैसे किया जाता है, रूस की प्रतिक्रिया क्या होती है, और व्यापक भू-राजनीतिक परिप्रेक्ष्य क्या है। इस लेख में इस संभावित अभियान के प्रभाव का विस्तृत विश्लेषण प्रस्तुत किया गया है।

1. हानि का पैमाना और स्वरूप

उच्च-मूल्य सैन्य लक्ष्यों का विनाश:
जून 2025 में यूक्रेन द्वारा की गई "ऑपरेशन स्पाइडर वेब" ने दिखाया कि ड्रोन कितने प्रभावी हो सकते हैं। उस अभियान में 117 ड्रोन ने 13–41 रूसी विमानों को क्षतिग्रस्त या नष्ट कर दिया था, जिसमें Tu-95 और Tu-22M जैसे रणनीतिक बॉम्बर्स शामिल थे। रूस को इस हमले में अनुमानतः $7 बिलियन का नुकसान हुआ।
अगर इसी रणनीति को 100,000 ड्रोन तक बढ़ाया जाए, तो लक्ष्य हो सकते हैं:
- सैकड़ों विमान (बॉम्बर्स, फाइटर्स, निगरानी विमान)
- आर्मर्ड व्हीकल्स जैसे टैंक और एपीसी
- कमांड और कंट्रोल सेंटर्स, गोला-बारूद डिपो, और ईंधन भंडार
सैनिक हताहत और संचालन में व्यवधान:
एफपीवी और आत्मघाती ड्रोन ने कई युद्धों में रूसी उपकरणों की 60–70% हानि और 80% तक सैनिक हताहत का कारण बने हैं। 100,000 ड्रोन:
- रसद लाइनों को बाधित कर सकते हैं
- सैनिक जमाव और आर्टिलरी पॉइंट्स को निशाना बना सकते हैं
- कम्युनिकेशन नेटवर्क को ध्वस्त कर सकते हैं
रूस के भीतर गहराई तक स्ट्राइक:
यूक्रेन के पास अब ऐसे लंबी दूरी के ड्रोन हैं जो 3,000 किमी तक लक्ष्य भेद सकते हैं। पहले भी साइबेरिया और मुरमांस्क के तेल रिफाइनरियों पर हमले हो चुके हैं।
100,000 ड्रोन:
- हवाई ठिकानों, हथियार फैक्ट्रियों और औद्योगिक केंद्रों पर बार-बार हमला कर सकते हैं
- रूस को आंतरिक सुरक्षा के लिए संसाधन मोड़ने के लिए मजबूर कर सकते हैं

2. आर्थिक और रणनीतिक प्रभाव

लागत-प्रभावशीलता:
यूक्रेनी ड्रोन की लागत मात्र $400–$1,000 होती है, जबकि वे $100 मिलियन से अधिक कीमत वाले रूसी उपकरणों को नष्ट कर सकते हैं (जैसे Tu-95)।
- 100,000 ड्रोन का अनुमानित खर्च: $40–100 मिलियन
- संभावित क्षति: $10–100 बिलियन से अधिक
रूसी संसाधनों पर दबाव:
यूक्रेन पहले ही हर हफ्ते 1,000+ ड्रोन लॉन्च कर रहा है। 100,000 की लहर:
- रूसी रक्षा प्रणालियों को अधिभारित कर सकती है
- रूस को महंगे काउंटर-ड्रोन उपायों का उपयोग करने पर मजबूर करेगी (जैसे $130,000 प्रति Coyote इंटरसेप्टर)
- अन्य सैन्य प्राथमिकताओं से ध्यान हटा सकती है
मनोवैज्ञानिक और राजनीतिक असर:
ज़ेलेंस्की ने कहा है कि ये हमले रूस की कमजोरी उजागर करते हैं और उसे "कूटनीति की ओर धकेलते हैं"।
- रूसी जनता और सैनिकों का मनोबल गिर सकता है
- पुतिन की सैन्य क्षमताओं पर जनता का विश्वास कम हो सकता है
- घरेलू दबाव और अंतरराष्ट्रीय आलोचना बढ़ सकती है

3. सैन्य रणनीति और संचालन के लाभ

झुंड (Swarm) रणनीति:
यूक्रेन पहले से ही छोटे FPV ड्रोन का उपयोग कर प्रेसिजन स्ट्राइक कर रहा है। 100,000 ड्रोन:
- रक्षा प्रणालियों को संख्यात्मक रूप से मात दे सकते हैं
- कम समय में लक्ष्यों को ट्रैक और नष्ट कर सकते हैं
रियल टाइम टोही (Surveillance):
निगरानी ड्रोन से निरंतर जानकारी मिलती है जो:
- तोपखाने और अन्य हथियारों को सटीक लक्ष्यों पर हमला करने में मदद करती है
- "ग्रे ज़ोन" (नो मैन्स लैंड) को फैलाती है जिससे रूस की गति सीमित हो जाती है
नौसैनिक असर:
यूक्रेन के "सी बेबी" जैसे नौसैनिक ड्रोन ने रूस के ब्लैक सी फ्लीट को सीमित कर दिया है। 100,000 में से कुछ ड्रोन:
- बंदरगाहों को अवरुद्ध कर सकते हैं
- रूसी जहाजों पर हमले कर सकते हैं
- समुद्री व्यापार को बाधित कर सकते हैं

4. सीमाएं और रूसी प्रतिकार

इलेक्ट्रॉनिक वॉरफेयर (जैमिंग):
रूस ने ड्रोन को निष्क्रिय करने के लिए अत्याधुनिक जैमिंग और स्पूफिंग सिस्टम विकसित किए हैं।
- यूक्रेन हर महीने लगभग 10,000 ड्रोन खो देता है
- उच्च तकनीक जैसे AI आधारित नेविगेशन सिस्टम आवश्यक होंगे
उत्पादन और आपूर्ति की बाधाएं:
यूक्रेन ने 2024 में 10 लाख ड्रोन बनाए और 2025 में 40–50 लाख का लक्ष्य है। लेकिन:
- 100,000 ड्रोन के लिए आपूर्ति श्रृंखला, प्रशिक्षित ऑपरेटर और संचार नेटवर्क जरूरी हैं
- विदेशी कलपुर्जों पर निर्भरता एक कमजोरी बन सकती है
रूसी प्रतिक्रिया का खतरा:
जून 2025 के ड्रोन हमले के बाद रूस ने 479–550 ड्रोन और मिसाइलों से बदला लिया, मुख्यतः नागरिक अवसंरचना को निशाना बनाकर।
- अगर यूक्रेन ड्रोन हमलों को और बढ़ाता है, तो रूस बड़े पैमाने पर जवाबी हमले कर सकता है
- अमेरिका ने भी चेतावनी दी है कि रूस इसका परमाणु प्रतिक्रिया के रूप में गलत अर्थ निकाल सकता है

5. ज़ेलेंस्की की रणनीति का दृष्टिकोण

विषम युद्ध का मॉडल:
रूस की तुलना में वायु शक्ति और तोपखाने की कमी को यूक्रेन ड्रोन तकनीक से भर रहा है।
- 100,000 ड्रोन की मांग इसी रणनीति का हिस्सा है, जिसमें ब्रिटेन जैसे देशों का सहयोग शामिल है
अंतरराष्ट्रीय समर्थन और साझेदारियां:
यूक्रेन ने Skyeton और Swift Beat जैसी कंपनियों से साझेदारी की है। लेकिन:
- 20,000 अमेरिकी एंटी-ड्रोन मिसाइलों का मध्य पूर्व में भेजा जाना चिंताजनक है
- दीर्घकालिक समाधान के लिए घरेलू उत्पादन क्षमताओं को और बढ़ाना जरूरी होगा
भविष्य के रणनीतिक प्रभाव:
- रूस के हमले की योजना को महंगा और अस्थिर बना सकते हैं
- यह रूसी परमाणु रणनीति को पुनः सोचने पर मजबूर कर सकता है
- हालांकि, पश्चिमी भागीदारी दिखने पर रूस की प्रतिक्रिया अधिक उग्र हो सकती है

निष्कर्ष

100,000 ड्रोन रूस को रणनीतिक, आर्थिक और मनोवैज्ञानिक स्तर पर भारी नुकसान पहुँचा सकते हैं।

अरबों डॉलर के हथियार और सैन्य ढांचे को नष्ट किया जा सकता है
रसद लाइनों को बाधित किया जा सकता है
रूसी सैनिकों और नागरिकों का मनोबल गिराया जा सकता है

यह सब ज़ेलेंस्की के उस लक्ष्य की ओर इशारा करता है—रूस को वार्ता की मेज़ पर लाना।
हालाँकि, यह सब कुछ यूक्रेन की उत्पादन क्षमता, ड्रोन तकनीक, रणनीति, और रूस की प्रतिक्रिया पर निर्भर करेगा।

स्रोत:

NYC mayoral frontrunner Zohran Mamdani's professor father claimed Hitler inspired by Abraham Lincoln
Consumer Alert: Cross-Border Tariff Fight Could Spike Prices on Everything You Buy
Haunting nuclear map shows how strikes would kill 75% of US population nearly 75% of the population could be wiped out. Cities spanning from the east coast to the midwest and west coast would likely be in the crosshairs, resulting in an estimated 250 million immediate deaths........ Major metropolitan areas such as New York, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Houston, and Washington DC are predicted to be hit first. ......... The map suggests that only a few areas would avoid immediate annihilation - Western Texas, parts of Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin. However, these areas would also become uninhabitable shortly after the nuclear onslaught. ......... The map was created using data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), including information on blast radius, fallout patterns, radiation exposure levels based on detonation location, and population density in affected areas....... US military facilities would be among the primary targets in a nuclear strike. Infrastructure such as power plants, transportation hubs, oil refineries, and crucial communication centers would also be at risk if bombs were deployed......... Russia currently holds the most nuclear warheads globally, with around 5,580. The US is not far behind with 5,044, while China has between 500 and 600. ...... The harrowing insight created by Halcyon Maps paints a dire picture, revealing that

a land-based nuclear missile fired from Russia or China could slam into the US mainland in a mere 30 minutes.

However, the situation becomes even more critical
if a submarine-based missile is launched off the American coast - the attack time would be slashed to just 15 minutes.
....... "The risk of nuclear war has increased dramatically in the past two years as the US and Russia have abandoned long-standing nuclear arms control treaties, started to develop new kinds of nuclear weapons and expanded the circumstances in which they might use nuclear weapons."

Southern Ocean current reverses for first time, signalling risk of climate system collapse
Six months into the Trump presidency, here’s the good, the bad, and the ugly about the economy
How Trump's megabill could slam the job market
‘It’s a stench of corruption’: Norm Eisen warns of an ethics crisis with Trump’s second term
Ukraine war latest: Drones attack Russia's Black Sea Fleet; Russian pipelines explode in country's Far East, HUR says
Russia and Ukraine trade drone strikes as Kyiv signs deals to boost drone production
Musk should stay out of politics, treasury secretary says after ‘America’ party news
Elon Musk says he's formed the 'America Party.' Mark Cuban and Anthony Scaramucci are interested.
Republicans have empowered a lunatic who barely won the election | Opinion Republicans in Congress have just passed Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” Widely dubbed the cruelest piece of legislation in US history post Civil War, it will:

・Remove over $1 trillion from Medicaid, which will leave 12 to 14 million Americans without health care;
・Adjust Medicaid payments so that most rural hospitals will have to close their doors;
・Slash Food Stamps and food assistance for approximately 42 million Americans, mostly children and senior citizens;
・Give and extend already unaffordable, already budget-busting, damn-near-theft tax cuts to wealthy Americans and corporations; while
・Increasing the already-bloated federal deficit by $3.4 trillion, which will affect interest rates and our childrens’ cost of repaying the national debt to foreign governments, including China.
What about the political backlash, you ask? Ever so clever, republicans delayed cuts to medical coverage until after the midterms, so they won’t suffer any professional or political consequences. .............

the bill specifically funds a new American police state. Draped in anti-immigrant language, the bill creates a standing army of masked ICE agents, and funds enough of them to terrorize any city in the nation. We’ve all seen the videos of ICE goons beating migrants in front of their children; any one of them could have been recruited from Trump’s applicant pool of pardoned felons.

......... It also provides $45 billion to build new immigration detention centers, a 265 percent annual budget increase to ICE’s current detention budget. This funding level is a 62 percent __larger budget__ than the __entire federal prison__ system, where 155,933 inmates are currently incarcerated. .......... After Trump was somehow re-elected, despite his well-publicized attempt to block the transfer of power when he lost, he acquitted or pardoned rioters who were convicted of violent felonies and personal violence against police officers during Trump’s January 6, 2021, uprising. Here, Trump at least gets a nod for sinister efficiency: J6 cultists who thrive on hate in service to Trump needed something to do. They were already pumped up and armed and in search of political violence, why not give ‘em an ICE badge? If they were recorded while beating capital police with vigor, or carrying a noose for Mike Pence because he honored the Constitution over Trump, all the better. .......... Trump now has $1 trillion—with a T— to spend on his defense budget. Anyone wondering how he’s going to spend it, after shamefully withholding military aid and weaponry Congress already approved for Ukraine, should consider Pete Hegseth. Hegseth recently testified before Congress and described how national defense, under Trump, is transitioning from a force fighting foreign threats into a “domestic affair:” ........ Pan wide for Trump’s new gulag agenda: ICE facilities where migrants, as well as political prisoners and journalists, are baked alive, fed to the reptiles, or denaturalized and deported. .......... With this bill’s passage, Trump has now been handed the most heavily funded law enforcement agency in United States history. This happened just after the Supreme Court handed him the most presidential power in the last 100 years of history by 1. Declaring him immune from criminal laws; and 2. Blocking federal judges from stopping him through the issuance of nationwide injunctive relief. ......... Not only did SCOTUS tell a criminal president that he was immune from criminal prosecution for anything related to being a president (fyi, rage tweeting childish threats that endanger our national security at 3 a.m. is related to being president; intentionally devaluing the US dollar to boost his own bitcoin grift is related to being president; ordering the execution of all redheads for “national security” purposes would be related to being president), by blocking nationwide injunctions, they also knee-capped federal judges doing their best to block America’s Hitler from doing his worst. .......... In service to Trump, Republicans on the high court banned injunctive relief, despite it’s use throughout the last 100 years, with no discussion or thought about how, under a criminally insane president who wants to put military tanks on every city street, it might have been important. ......... Trump was not elected “by a mandate.” He eked out his win by a margin of only 1.5 percent over Harris, while 91 million voters were so disgusted by the election, or so disillusioned, or so stoned, they didn’t bother to vote. .......... They know there won’t be a real mid-term election. ......... If anyone, including SCOTUS and voters, doubted Trump’s death grip on the Republican Party, this should remove all doubt. Republicans will die with Trump, or democracy will die with them.

World War III Is Unnecessary
Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Saturday, July 05, 2025

The State Of Russia's Economy

Russia-Ukraine War (July 2024 – July 2025) And Peace Prospects
Gaza As A Country: A Vision for Peace, Prosperity, and a New Beginning
Rethinking Trade in an Age of Chaos: Why the Trump Tariff Circus Is No Substitute for a Global Blueprint

Current State of Russia's Economy (July 2025)

As of mid-2025, Russia’s economy reflects a complex blend of resilience and structural fragility, shaped heavily by its protracted war in Ukraine, enduring Western sanctions, and a war-driven economic model. Although Russia saw strong growth in 2024, the economy is now cooling, facing mounting pressures such as labor shortages, high inflation, dwindling fiscal reserves, and an overreliance on energy exports.

Below is a detailed overview of key economic indicators and trends:

GDP Growth

Russia’s economic expansion has slowed sharply in 2025. In the first quarter, GDP grew by just 1.4% year-on-year, compared to 4.4% average growth in the second half of 2024. Growth in 2024 was driven by extraordinary levels of military spending and state intervention. However, as the economy overheats, supply-side bottlenecks—especially labor shortages and capacity constraints—are beginning to cap further expansion.

Inflation

Inflation remains elevated. As of May 2025, the annual inflation rate stood at 9.9%, slightly down from 10.2% in April, but still well above the Central Bank of Russia’s 4% target. Analysts note that real inflation for essential goods such as food may exceed 20%, disproportionately affecting vulnerable groups such as public sector workers and pensioners.

Monetary Policy

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) continues to pursue a tight monetary policy. As of June 2025, the key interest rate stands at 20%, down modestly from its October 2024 peak of 21%. While intended to curb inflation, these high rates are also dampening private investment and straining corporate balance sheets, raising the risk of a banking crisis within the next year.

Fiscal Policy and Budget

The 2025 federal budget is increasingly dominated by military and security expenditures, which now account for 6.3–8% of GDP and 40–41% of federal spending—levels not seen since the Soviet era. Russia's budget deficit has been revised up from 0.5% to 1.7% of GDP, largely due to lower-than-expected oil revenues and continued war-related outlays. The National Wealth Fund has declined to $31 billion as of late 2024, down from $117 billion in 2021, drastically reducing fiscal buffers.

Energy Exports

Energy remains Russia’s main economic lifeline. Oil and gas exports have pivoted eastward toward China, India, and Turkey. However, revenues are slipping: the government reduced its 2025 oil revenue forecast by 24%, from 10.94 trillion to 8.32 trillion rubles, amid falling oil prices (hovering between $56–$70 per barrel). If Ukraine halts gas transit to Europe, Russia could lose an additional $7–8 billion annually.

Labor Market

The labor market is under intense strain. With the combined impact of war casualties, mass emigration (700,000 to 1 million since 2022), and mobilization in defense industries, unemployment has dropped to an artificial low of 2.3–2.5%. However, this shortage is driving wage inflation. Nominal wages are projected to rise 12.7% in 2025, while real wage growth is expected to slow to 3.2%.

Currency and Trade

The ruble continues to weaken, reaching its lowest value since March 2022. The exchange rate is expected to average 102–120 rubles per USD in 2025. Western sanctions have curtailed foreign currency inflows and redirected trade toward China’s yuan, now the most-used foreign currency in Russia. Export volumes have declined 20% since 2021 due to sanctions and logistical constraints.

Trajectory Over the Past 12 Months (July 2024–July 2025)

Over the past year, Russia’s war economy transitioned from a phase of rapid stimulus-driven growth to a period of deceleration, as wartime fiscal expansion collided with structural constraints and external shocks.

Rapid but Unsustainable Growth: In 2024, GDP grew by 3.6–4%, buoyed by a wartime spending surge, estimated at $250 billion through mid-year. However, this growth faded quickly in early 2025, with just 1.4% growth in Q1.
Rising Inflation: Inflation climbed from 7.5% in mid-2024 to over 10% by early 2025, triggered by a weak ruble, surging wages, and defense-sector overdrive. The CBR’s aggressive interest rate hikes (from 18% to 21%) helped dampen some pressure, but not enough to reverse the trend.
Sanctions Bite Harder: Sanctions on energy and technology have deepened. Oil revenues began falling in late 2024 due to stricter enforcement and lower global prices. Though trade with China and India has partly offset losses, access to Western capital, semiconductors, and machinery remains limited.
Budget Strains: The government’s 2024 budget relied on optimistic oil revenue forecasts. When those failed to materialize in 2025, non-military spending and infrastructure investments were either frozen or slashed.
Shrinking Workforce and Public Sentiment: The workforce shrank further due to continued conscription and emigration. Real wages rose by 8% in 2024, but consumer sentiment deteriorated. A January 2025 Levada Center poll found 38% of Russians reporting a worsening standard of living, and 30% citing reduced income opportunities.

Projections for the Next 12 Months (July 2025–July 2026)

The outlook for Russia's economy through mid-2026 is bleak, with heightened risk of stagflation or recession, depending largely on oil prices, sanctions, and the trajectory of the war in Ukraine.

GDP Forecast: The IMF forecasts 1.4–1.5% growth for 2025, while the Central Bank projects 0.5–1.5%. Growth in 2026 may slow further to 0.9–1.7%, given supply-side bottlenecks and weakening external demand.
Inflation: Inflation is expected to remain elevated, between 6–10%, until at least mid-2026. The CBR aims to reduce it to 4%, but ongoing military expenditures, a weakened ruble, and rising import costs may prevent that.
Interest Rates: The key rate is expected to hover around 20% in 2025, with a possible decline to 14–15% in 2026, contingent on inflation control. These elevated rates are likely to hamper business investment and increase debt defaults, especially in real estate and construction.
Budget and Fiscal Policy: The deficit is projected to remain between 1.5–2% of GDP, funded via domestic borrowing and what remains of the National Wealth Fund, which could be depleted by late 2025. Tax increases and import duties are being considered but may not plug the revenue gap.
Energy and Exports: Russia’s fiscal health depends critically on oil prices staying above $60 per barrel. A sustained drop could trigger a deeper downturn. Gas transit disruptions, additional sanctions, and limits on technology imports will likely suppress export volumes.
Labor and Society: Unemployment may edge up to 2.7% in 2026, but real wage growth will likely slow to 2.5–3.2%, weakening household consumption. The Kremlin’s focus on military resilience could further alienate ordinary citizens facing stagnant living standards.
Key Risks: A sharp decline in oil prices, new sanctions (e.g., tariffs on Russian energy), a potential banking crisis driven by rising non-performing loans, and escalation in Ukraine all pose serious threats. While the war economy provides near-term stability, it also amplifies long-term vulnerability.

Summary

As of July 2025, Russia’s wartime economy is entering a slowdown phase, with GDP growth dropping to 1.4%, inflation hovering near 10%, and oil revenues shrinking. Military spending, at over 6% of GDP, continues to crowd out investment in civilian sectors. The past 12 months showcased the fading momentum of war-driven growth, now replaced by economic stagnation, mounting inflationary pressures, and shrinking fiscal space.

Looking ahead, forecasts for 2025–2026 range from 0.5% to 2.5% growth, but recession or stagflation is a real possibility. The Kremlin’s wartime focus offers short-term stability but masks deep structural weaknesses: demographic decline, technological isolation, and a fragile banking sector. Unless major economic reforms or geopolitical shifts occur, the Russian economy may face escalating internal strain and deteriorating public sentiment through 2026.

Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Russia-Ukraine War (July 2024 – July 2025) And Peace Prospects

Summary of the Russia-Ukraine War (July 2024 – July 2025)

Over the past year, the Russia-Ukraine war has seen intensified military clashes, stalled diplomatic efforts, and shifting global dynamics. The conflict remains deadlocked, with escalating violence and little progress toward a durable peace. Below are key developments and challenges from July 2024 to July 2025:

Military Developments

Russian Advances:
Russian forces made significant gains in southern Ukraine, capturing strategic areas such as Stepove in Zaporizhzhia. By March 2025, they had pushed Ukrainian forces out of parts of Kursk Oblast. Russia intensified its use of drones (including Chinese-made models), missiles, and even chemical weapons. In July 2025, Russia launched a record 550 drone and missile strikes in a single night, targeting Kyiv and multiple urban centers.
[Sources: Sky News, BBC]
Ukrainian Resistance:
Ukraine mounted notable operations, including “Operation Spider’s Web”, which deployed over 100 drones to strike Russian military targets. Ukrainian forces also sabotaged a Russian-constructed bridge in Crimea using underwater explosives. However, Ukraine faced severe manpower shortages, prompting retreats from key areas such as Kurakhove in Donetsk.
[Sources: BBC, Sky News]
Foreign Involvement:
North Korea deepened its support for Russia by sending military personnel to bolster operations in Kursk and supplying artillery shells and ballistic missiles. This marked a significant international escalation in the war.
[Source: Institute for the Study of War]
Civilian Impact:
The war has caused over 40,000 civilian casualties, displaced 3.7 million people internally, and created over 6.9 million refugees. Repeated Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have left large swaths of the population without power during the winter. Ukraine also accused Russia of violating agreed ceasefire terms.
[Sources: CFR, NYT]

Diplomatic Efforts

Ceasefire Attempts:
In March 2025, Ukraine accepted a U.S.-brokered 30-day ceasefire, under which the U.S. resumed military aid and intelligence sharing. Russia agreed to a limited pause in attacks on energy facilities but rejected broader terms, insisting on addressing what it called the war’s “root causes”—including NATO expansion.
[Sources: Al Jazeera, NYT]
Direct Talks:
Russia and Ukraine held two rounds of direct negotiations in Istanbul (May–June 2025), agreeing to a 1,000-prisoner swap and the repatriation of 6,000 soldiers’ remains. However, talks broke down over Russia’s maximalist territorial demands, and no lasting ceasefire was reached.
[Sources: Al Jazeera, Reuters]
U.S. Involvement:
President Trump attempted to mediate by engaging both Putin and Zelenskyy. While he threatened renewed sanctions on Russia, he also pressured Ukraine to consider territorial concessions, straining U.S.-Ukraine relations. The Trump administration’s approach has been marked by mixed messages and inconsistent support.
[Sources: CFR, Atlantic Council]
European Role:
France and the UK proposed forming a “coalition of the willing” to provide security guarantees and peacekeeping forces. Russia, however, rejected any European military presence in Ukraine.
[Sources: The Guardian, Atlantic Council]

Other Key Developments

Sanctions and Economic Impact:
The U.S. and its allies imposed more than 21,000 new sanctions on Russia, targeting sectors such as banking, energy, and defense. Russian officials acknowledged the economy was nearing recession-level contraction due to international isolation.
[Sources: Al Jazeera, BBC]
Humanitarian Issues:
Nearly 16,000 Ukrainian civilians remain in Russian detention, with both sides accusing each other of war crimes, including torture and indiscriminate bombing.
[Sources: BBC, Reuters]

Impediments to Ceasefire and Peace

Russia’s Maximalist Demands:
Russia insists Ukraine recognize its annexation of Crimea and four occupied regions—Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—as Russian territory. Moscow also demands Ukraine withdraw from these areas and abandon its pursuit of NATO membership. President Putin has continued making inflammatory claims such as “all of Ukraine is ours,” showing little room for compromise.
[Sources: Wikipedia, Al Jazeera]
Ukraine’s Security Needs:
Ukraine is demanding robust security guarantees, preferably NATO membership or at least the deployment of European peacekeeping forces. Memories of the failed Minsk agreements and continued Russian aggression have led Ukraine to reject any “frozen conflict” outcome. President Zelenskyy has remained firm on the need to restore Ukraine’s 1991 borders.
[Sources: Carnegie Endowment, The Guardian]
Mutual Distrust and Ceasefire Violations:
Trust remains low, with each side accusing the other of breaking temporary ceasefires. Russia reportedly continued targeting civilian infrastructure even during energy truces, while Ukraine conducted strikes on Russian oil depots. These incidents undermine confidence in future agreements.
[Sources: The Guardian, Al Jazeera]
Ambiguity in U.S. Policy:
The Trump administration has sent mixed signals—pausing aid to pressure Ukraine into talks, then threatening Russia with renewed sanctions. While Trump supports a negotiated peace, his administration's hesitancy on NATO expansion and inconsistent commitment to Ukraine have weakened Kyiv’s diplomatic position.
[Sources: CFR, Atlantic Council]
International and Strategic Dynamics:
Russia’s growing alliances—with North Korea, Iran, and others—provide it with a steady supply of weapons and diplomatic cover. Ukraine remains dependent on Western support, which is complicated by U.S. domestic political divisions. European nations are willing to help but face Russian resistance to any peacekeeping deployments.
[Sources: Understanding War, Atlantic Council]
Battlefield Trends:
Russia’s territorial gains in early 2025, along with Ukraine’s personnel shortages, reduce Kyiv’s leverage in peace talks. Russia’s strategy of prolonging negotiations while entrenching control over occupied territories appears designed to change facts on the ground.
The use of chemical weapons by Russia and Ukraine’s retaliatory long-range strikes continue to escalate the conflict.
[Sources: Economist, Al Jazeera]

Conclusion

From July 2024 to July 2025, the Russia-Ukraine war has intensified both militarily and diplomatically. Despite temporary ceasefires and limited humanitarian agreements, no comprehensive peace has emerged. Russia’s hardline stance, Ukraine’s demands for security guarantees, mutual distrust, ambiguous U.S. policy, and complex global alignments all obstruct a durable resolution.

Unless there is sustained Western pressure on Moscow and credible long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, the war is likely to drag on—either as a simmering stalemate or a renewed large-scale conflict.

[Sources: Atlantic Council, CFR]

The Referendum Path to Peace in Ukraine: A Formula for Lasting Resolution

The Russia-Ukraine war has entered its third year with no clear end in sight. Tens of thousands have died, millions displaced, and both economies—especially Ukraine’s—have been severely damaged. Despite several ceasefire attempts, prisoner exchanges, and international mediation efforts, a comprehensive peace agreement remains elusive.

But amidst the deadlock, there is one proposal that offers a legitimate, democratic, and morally defensible path forward: a referendum in the five disputed regions—Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Crimea—after the complete withdrawal of both the Russian and Ukrainian armies. This idea, detailed in the book Formula For Peace In Ukraine Amazon link, presents a clear and principled framework rooted in self-determination, sovereignty, and international oversight.

Why a Referendum?

At the heart of this proposal is a recognition of a fundamental truth: no durable peace can be imposed—it must be chosen. And for that to happen, the people of these contested regions must be allowed to decide their future freely, without coercion from occupying forces or propaganda from either side.

A properly monitored, internationally supervised referendum—conducted only after both Russian and Ukrainian forces have completely withdrawn—offers the only credible mechanism to resolve these disputes peacefully.

The Problem with the Status Quo

The current situation is unsustainable:

Russia continues to occupy territory it annexed through force, with no international recognition beyond a handful of states.
Ukraine, backed by international law and widespread global support, demands the return of all its 1991 borders.
Millions in the disputed regions live under uncertainty, caught in a geopolitical tug-of-war.

Military victory is unlikely to deliver long-term peace for either side. A frozen conflict would only breed future instability. Only a negotiated solution that centers the will of the people can break the cycle.

Preconditions for a Legitimate Referendum

For a referendum to be a true expression of self-determination, several non-negotiable preconditions must be met:

Total Withdrawal of All Armed Forces:
Both Russian and Ukrainian troops must exit the disputed territories. Neutral international peacekeepers, perhaps under UN or OSCE mandates, should maintain order during the transition.
Return of Displaced Residents:
All civilians who were forced to flee—regardless of ethnicity or political beliefs—must be allowed to return and register to vote, ensuring the result reflects the original population.
Media Freedom and Civil Society Access:
Independent press and civil society organizations must have unrestricted access to educate voters and monitor the campaign period.
International Oversight:
A credible third-party—possibly a coalition including the UN, EU, and neutral non-NATO states—should manage the logistics, voting process, and verification of results.
Binding Commitment to Outcome:
Russia and Ukraine must publicly agree in advance to honor the results of the referenda, whatever they may be, and commit to not retaliate diplomatically, militarily, or economically.

Why This Is the Best Path Forward

For Ukraine: It demonstrates a commitment to democracy and international law. Ukraine can reclaim moral leadership by showing it will respect the will of its people—even in contested areas—if the process is free and fair.
For Russia: If the population genuinely desires closer ties with Russia, Moscow gets legitimacy it currently lacks. If not, it saves itself from the cost of indefinite occupation and global pariah status.
For the World: The global community is desperate for a blueprint that avoids future wars. A peaceful referendum, carried out under strict international norms, can become a model for resolving other intractable conflicts.

Addressing Objections

“Won’t Russia manipulate the referendum?”
Not if the vote is held after withdrawal and is overseen by international monitors with access to all precincts. Any deviations can be transparently challenged and corrected.

“Isn’t this rewarding aggression?”
On the contrary. It denies Russia any gains from invasion and forces a reset. It also avoids forcing populations into allegiance against their will—a mistake that has haunted past conflicts.

“Wouldn’t Ukraine lose territory?”
Possibly—but not through war or coercion. And if the people vote to remain with Ukraine, it strengthens Ukraine’s unity through consent, not force.

The Moral Case

Peace cannot be achieved through revenge. It must be pursued through justice, dignity, and fairness. By allowing those who have suffered most—the residents of the disputed regions—to freely decide their future, we move from wars of ideology to dialogues of democracy.

As outlined in Formula For Peace In Ukraine, a referendum is not capitulation—it is a courageous act of trust in the power of people.

Conclusion

The current approach—protracted war, shifting front lines, and endless sanctions—is bleeding both sides with no end in sight. The path of a referendum-based peace offers a light at the end of the tunnel. It honors international law, protects national dignity, and places power where it belongs: with the people.

The time has come to stop fighting over land, and start trusting in democracy.

For more details on this proposal, refer to the book Formula For Peace In Ukraine.

यूक्रेन में शांति के लिए जनमत संग्रह का रास्ता: एक स्थायी समाधान का सूत्र

रूस-यूक्रेन युद्ध तीसरे वर्ष में प्रवेश कर चुका है और अब भी इसका कोई स्पष्ट अंत दिखाई नहीं देता। हजारों लोग मारे जा चुके हैं, लाखों विस्थापित हो चुके हैं, और विशेष रूप से यूक्रेन की अर्थव्यवस्था तबाह हो गई है। कई युद्धविराम प्रयासों और अंतरराष्ट्रीय मध्यस्थताओं के बावजूद, एक व्यापक शांति समझौता अब भी अधूरा है।

लेकिन इस गतिरोध के बीच एक ऐसा प्रस्ताव है जो न्यायसंगत, लोकतांत्रिक और नैतिक रूप से ठोस समाधान पेश करता है:
पांच विवादित क्षेत्रों—लुहान्स्क, डोनेट्स्क, ज़ापोरिज़िया, खेरसॉन और क्रीमिया—में दोनों सेनाओं की पूर्ण वापसी के बाद जनमत संग्रह।
यह विचार Formula For Peace In Ukraine नामक पुस्तक में विस्तार से रखा गया है: Amazon लिंक

जनमत संग्रह क्यों जरूरी है?

इस प्रस्ताव की जड़ में एक सरल लेकिन महत्वपूर्ण सत्य छिपा है: स्थायी शांति थोपी नहीं जा सकती—उसे चुना जाना चाहिए। और इसके लिए जरूरी है कि इन विवादित क्षेत्रों के लोग बिना किसी दबाव या सैन्य उपस्थिति के, स्वतंत्र रूप से अपना भविष्य तय कर सकें।

एक अंतरराष्ट्रीय निगरानी में निष्पक्ष और पारदर्शी जनमत संग्रह ही एकमात्र ऐसा विश्वसनीय तरीका है जिससे इन विवादों को शांतिपूर्वक सुलझाया जा सकता है।

वर्तमान स्थिति की समस्याएँ

रूस बलपूर्वक कब्जा किए गए क्षेत्रों को अपना हिस्सा घोषित कर चुका है, लेकिन उसे वैश्विक मान्यता नहीं मिली है।
यूक्रेन अंतरराष्ट्रीय कानून और समर्थन के साथ अपने 1991 के संप्रभु सीमा की बहाली की मांग कर रहा है।
इन क्षेत्रों में रह रहे नागरिक निरंतर भय, अस्थिरता और राजनीतिक असमंजस में जी रहे हैं।

युद्ध से कोई स्थायी समाधान नहीं निकल सकता। एक "जमा हुआ संघर्ष" (frozen conflict) केवल भविष्य में और अधिक अशांति की नींव रखेगा। केवल वही समाधान कारगर होगा जो इन क्षेत्रों के लोगों की स्वतंत्र इच्छा को सम्मान देता हो।

एक वैध जनमत संग्रह की शर्तें

पूर्ण सैन्य वापसी
रूसी और यूक्रेनी सेनाओं को इन पांच क्षेत्रों से पूरी तरह हटना होगा। इस दौरान सुरक्षा बनाए रखने के लिए संयुक्त राष्ट्र या ओएससीई जैसी तटस्थ अंतरराष्ट्रीय शांति सेनाओं की तैनाती की जा सकती है।
विस्थापितों की वापसी
जो नागरिक युद्ध के कारण भाग गए थे, उन्हें वापस लौटकर वोट करने का अधिकार दिया जाना चाहिए ताकि जनमत वास्तविक जनसंख्या को दर्शाए।
स्वतंत्र मीडिया और नागरिक संस्थाएं
निष्पक्ष जानकारी और प्रचार सुनिश्चित करने के लिए स्वतंत्र मीडिया और गैर-सरकारी संगठनों को क्षेत्र में पूर्ण पहुंच मिलनी चाहिए।
अंतरराष्ट्रीय निगरानी
चुनाव प्रक्रिया, मतगणना और सत्यापन सभी अंतरराष्ट्रीय संस्था के अधीन होने चाहिए।
परिणाम को मान्यता देने की अग्रिम स्वीकृति
रूस और यूक्रेन को पहले से ही यह संकल्प लेना होगा कि वे परिणाम को स्वीकार करेंगे—चाहे जो भी हो—और किसी प्रकार की सैन्य या आर्थिक प्रतिक्रिया नहीं देंगे।

यह रास्ता सबसे बेहतर क्यों है?

यूक्रेन के लिए: यह दिखाता है कि वह लोकतंत्र और अंतरराष्ट्रीय कानून में विश्वास रखता है। यदि जनमत यूक्रेन के पक्ष में आता है, तो वह एकता को बलपूर्वक नहीं, बल्कि जनता की इच्छा से प्राप्त करता है।
रूस के लिए: यदि लोग सचमुच रूस के साथ जुड़ना चाहते हैं, तो उसे वैधता प्राप्त होगी। यदि नहीं, तो रूस बिना भारी लागत के पीछे हट सकता है।
विश्व के लिए: यह प्रस्ताव एक ऐसा उदाहरण बन सकता है जो दुनिया भर के अन्य जटिल संघर्षों को शांतिपूर्ण समाधान के लिए प्रेरित करे।

आलोचनाओं का उत्तर

"रूस जनमत को प्रभावित करेगा!"
यदि वोटिंग सेनाओं की वापसी के बाद और अंतरराष्ट्रीय निगरानी में हो, तो हेराफेरी की संभावना नगण्य होगी।

"क्या यह आक्रमण को इनाम देने जैसा नहीं होगा?"
नहीं। यह युद्ध के ज़रिए नहीं, बल्कि लोकतांत्रिक तरीके से लोगों की राय जानने का प्रयास है। यदि परिणाम यूक्रेन के पक्ष में आता है, तो यह रूस के आक्रमण की नैतिक हार होगी।

"यूक्रेन को क्षेत्र खोना पड़ सकता है!"
संभव है, लेकिन केवल जनता की इच्छा के आधार पर—not by force. और यदि क्षेत्र यूक्रेन में ही रहना चाहते हैं, तो यह पूरे विश्व के सामने उसकी वैधता को प्रमाणित करेगा।

नैतिक दृष्टिकोण

शांति बदले की भावना से नहीं लाई जा सकती। उसे न्याय, सम्मान और स्वतंत्रता से हासिल करना होगा। जब हम सबसे ज्यादा पीड़ित लोगों—विवादित क्षेत्रों के नागरिकों—को ही अपना भविष्य तय करने दें, तो हम हिंसा नहीं, बल्कि लोकतंत्र का मार्ग चुनते हैं।

Formula For Peace In Ukraine पुस्तक में जिस तरह से यह विचार प्रस्तुत किया गया है, वह सिर्फ रणनीतिक नहीं—नैतिक दृष्टि से भी सही है।

निष्कर्ष

2024-2025 के दौरान जारी युद्ध ने यह सिद्ध कर दिया है कि सैन्य समाधान स्थायी नहीं होता। शांति केवल तभी आएगी जब दोनों पक्षों की सेनाएं पीछे हटें, और विवादित क्षेत्रों के लोगों को निष्पक्ष जनमत के माध्यम से अपना भविष्य चुनने का अधिकार दिया जाए।

यह प्रस्ताव रूस-यूक्रेन संघर्ष को समाप्त करने का सबसे व्यावहारिक, न्यायोचित और लोकतांत्रिक तरीका हो सकता है।

अधिक जानकारी के लिए पढ़ें: Formula For Peace In Ukraine

🧵THREAD: The Only Viable Path to Peace in Ukraine? A Referendum in Disputed Regions

After 3 years of bloodshed, there’s still no peace between Russia and Ukraine.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 5, 2025

Formula For Peace In Ukraine https://t.co/p53RRpxPfJ
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 5, 2025

1/
This plan, detailed in the book Formula For Peace In Ukraine (https://t.co/p53RRpxPfJ), proposes a democratic solution rather than a military one.
The 5 regions:

Crimea

Donetsk

Luhansk

Zaporizhzhia

Kherson

Each would hold a UN-supervised vote. @realDonaldTrump
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 5, 2025

3/
Why is this the best path forward?
✅ It ends war through consent, not conquest.
✅ It honors self-determination.
✅ It avoids indefinite conflict or frozen war.

Military victory is uncertain. Diplomatic trust is low. A people’s vote is a way out. @narendramodi @PMOIndia
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 5, 2025

7/
The alternatives?
❌ Endless war
❌ A frozen conflict like in Georgia or Transnistria
❌ Civilian suffering on both sides
❌ Rising global instability

Isn’t letting people decide better than more bloodshed? @TuckerCarlson @DineshDSouza @mehdirhasan
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 5, 2025

Let them vote.
📘 Read more: Formula For Peace In Ukraine https://t.co/p53RRpxPfJ #Ukraine #Russia #Peace #Geopolitics #Referendum #UkraineWar @ZelenskyyUa @EmmanuelMacron @MacronHQ @Ukraine @DefenceU @MFA_Ukraine @MEAIndia
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 5, 2025

Wednesday, July 02, 2025

2: Ukraine

Can Trump strip Musk and Mamdani of their US citizenship?
Israeli official says country has accepted 60-day Gaza ceasefire deal detailed by Trump
Judge blocks Trump’s rule barring migrants at US-Mexico border from claiming asylum
Iran ready to enrich uranium to bomb-grade levels: "we can do that"

The Masterplan for Ukraine to Win the War Against Russia "Western half-measures have prolonged the war" and Ukraine can still win, but only with a "fundamental shift in Western strategy." ....... instead of providing too much aid, the West has provided too little, too late, and a large boost in military and economic pressure now could force a favorable outcome. .......... Russia has been ramping up drone attacks, while also making slow advances along the front lines, and recently seized a key lithium field in Eastern Ukraine, one seen as key to Ukraine’s mineral deal with the U.S. ........ Russia is much weaker economically than many analysts realize, and hard-hitting sanctions and export controls can still cripple its war economy ........ “Ukraine is fighting smartly and could turn the tide on the battlefield with more high-end drones, air defense systems, long-range missiles, and munitions. With a change of strategy, Ukraine can still win the war in the near term—if both Europe and the United States decide to give it the assistance it needs.” ....... and NATO appearing to pivot away from Ukraine at its most recent summit, where it appeared the primary agenda of most NATO nations was keeping the American president happy. ........ Putin was “personally invested in keeping Ukraine from becoming a European democracy, no matter the cost.” ......... “By assigning no agency to Ukraine or its foreign partners, it presumes that Ukrainian victory is a fantasy born of Western delusion, and it is a view that risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he writes. “Both assumptions, meanwhile, rest on an excessively narrow reading of battlefield dynamics and a limited understanding of the policy options available to Ukraine’s backers.” ......... The author points to “impressive victories” by Ukraine, which include repelling the initial invasion, capturing land in the Kharkiv region, and the recent Operation Spider Web drone attack. The problem, he writes, is that Ukraine has often waited too long for delivery of weapons that have matched what the Russians are throwing at them. ............. Instead of prolonging the war by giving Ukraine too much military assistance, Kyiv’s foreign allies have prolonged it by giving too little, and often with significant delays” ........ “Despite these missteps, victory for Ukraine—minimally defined as preserving its sovereignty and continuing to chart a course toward NATO and EU membership—is still squarely within reach. Achieving it, however, requires a fundamental shift in Western strategy, one that combines a large boost in military assistance with more robust economic measures to constrain Russia’s war economy.”

ICE-Tracking App Surges in Popularity Following MAGA Meltdown
The Iranian Regime Has Already Fallen. The New Regime Is Worse.
Trump Kills Key Weapons Shipments to Ukraine as Putin Unleashes Hell
Italy could lose 20 billion euros in exports, 118,000 jobs with US tariffs, industry head says
Kirsten Gillibrand apologizes to Zohran Mamdani over ‘jihad’ claim

Trump's policies already cost US companies $82 billion — and that could 'more than double' tariffs and mass deportations will hurt American businesses and that the draconian Medicaid and SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) cuts in his megabill will imperil vulnerable Americans. ........ Trump's tariffs "add about $82 billion in total new costs for all mid-sized U.S. companies, per a new estimate — a sum that would more than double if rates return to levels seen at the height of trade tensions in April." ........ Those tariff-related expenses, according to Brown, "could force" business owners "to shrink costs elsewhere, perhaps via layoffs." ....... "The cost amounts to 3 percent of their payroll — it's meaningful that they are paying that much to compensate for the tariffs." ...... Trump's "immigration crackdown is hitting key pockets of the economy, disrupting workplaces and communities around the country." ......... The sharp fall in immigration this year threatens to slow down economic growth, particularly in the sectors and cities that relied on newcomers to the U.S. in recent years…. There will be fewer workers to produce goods and services, slowing down growth and putting pressure on wages." ......... the U.S. economy "will find itself slightly diminished in the long run, and inflation will run a touch higher." ....... The 'big, beautiful bill' that passed the Senate contains about $175 billion for even more immigration enforcement.

We are going to have a deal, says Trump amid India-US trade deadlock India was ready to lower taxes for US companies, which could clear the path for an agreement staving off the 26% rate he announced on April 2. The reciprocal tariffs were suspended for 90 days by Trump, but the 10 percent baseline tariff continued to be in effect. ........ India has refused to budge on dairy, a sector employing over 80 million people in India, many of them smallholder farmers. ........ "We've dealt with Japan. I'm not sure we're going to make a deal. I doubt it," Trump said as he returned to Washington from a trip to Florida....... He claimed that Japan was rejecting American-grown rice, a demand Washington made that he called "an easy one," while selling millions of cars in the US.

#WATCH | On trade deals with India, US President Donald Trump says, "I think we are going to have a deal with India. And that is going to be a different kind of a deal. It is going to be a deal where we are able to go in and compete. Right now, India does not accept anybody in. I… pic.twitter.com/6c199NGm8B
— ANI (@ANI) July 1, 2025