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Showing posts with label World War II. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World War II. Show all posts

Saturday, June 07, 2025

7: World War II

Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Palantir founder, Trump ally Peter Thiel talks Antichrist, coming 'totalitarian' system in resurfaced interview
Gen. Flynn: The Deep State Is Boxing Trump in, Pushing US Toward 'Final Military Conflict' While most of America remains blissfully uninformed by our establishment media, the world's two greatest superpowers are being manipulated by dark forces inside and outside our government into a major military confrontation that no country wants, and no sane person would ever want. ......... and my recommendations for how our nation and the West can avoid a major military confrontation with Russia. ......... despite the lies told by our Deep State, Russia is not the Soviet Union, and Putin is not Stalin. .......... The establishment media, deeply influenced and even sometimes controlled by our Deep State, labeled President Trump and those who work for him "Putin's Puppets" to goad him into taking unwarranted and aggressive steps against Russia. These voices from the establishment media reflect the views of the Deep State, not the American people, and not the MAGA movement, and should be completely disregarded, if not mocked. .......... During almost all of the post-World War II period, and certainly since the establishment of the CIA in 1947, these unelected dark establishment forces have acted to destabilize the world, bringing death, famine, assassinations, violence, coups, riots, revolutions, and destruction to our planet. ............

Currently, these forces are working to provoke Russia into a major --- perhaps a final --- military conflict with the West.

.............. Since Russian and American strategic bombers are generally required by agreement to be visible to satellite surveillance, never before has anyone engaged in an attack on these visible targets. ........... it is my view that the Deep State is now acting outside of the control of the elected leadership of our nation. I believe that these persons in our Deep State are engaged in a deliberate effort to provoke Russia into a major confrontation with the West, including the United States. ............ The time is now to take aggressive action against those who abuse their authority as government employees to manipulate the elected leadership of our nation. ............ In 1961, Kennedy found himself manipulated by earlier versions of these same Deep State forces when they attempted to manipulate him to launch Air Force planes to attack Cuba after the failed invasion, resulting in an open conflict with both Cuba and the Soviet Union. .......... In Kennedy's June 1963 speech at American University, declaring his vision of peace with the Soviet Union, he declared himself to be an enemy of this Deep State, which, by all indications, then retaliated by participating in his assassination five months later in Dallas. ......... The American Deep State is not only a threat to peace, but a threat to the president. .......... President Trump has already faced at least two assassination attempts. .......... After the shooting in Butler, Pennsylvania last July, Trump displayed the type of personal courage that those of us who have served in the military deeply admire. .......... Once President Kennedy realized he was being manipulated and opposed because he sought peace, he removed Allen Dulles as Director of Central Intelligence, along with several of his assistants. I urge President Trump to immediately clean house of any in government who had prior knowledge of, or participated in any way, in the Ukrainian attack on the Russian Federation's strategic bombers, and to go further by immediately declaring an end to any support for the Ukraine War. ......... I urge him to recall all open and covert military and other government personnel from Ukraine. I urge him to have all those personnel removed and interrogated by the FBI or the military to learn of their possible participation in unauthorized military activities. ....... I urge President Trump to also distance himself from demonstrated war mongers in our own government, chief among whom is U.S. Sen. Lindsay Graham of South Carolina. ....... Peace is not the normal state of man. Freedom requires a price to be paid by every generation. It is time to recommit our nation to both peace and freedom.

Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

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Monday, June 02, 2025

Going Back To Keynes On Global Trade

 


John Maynard Keynes, the influential British economist, proposed a revolutionary idea at the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference that was not adopted but has gained renewed relevance in modern economic discussions. His proposal centered on the creation of an International Clearing Union (ICU) and a global reserve currency called the Bancor. Below is a detailed explanation of the proposal, its relevance today, and the reasons it was rejected despite its merits.

Keynes' Proposal: The International Clearing Union and Bancor
At the Bretton Woods Conference, which aimed to establish a new international monetary system post-World War II, Keynes proposed a system to address global trade imbalances and promote economic stability. His key ideas were:
  1. International Clearing Union (ICU):
    • The ICU would function as a global central bank to manage international payments and trade balances.
    • Countries would hold accounts in the ICU, denominated in a new international currency called Bancor, which would be used for settling trade balances between nations.
    • Bancor would be fixed in value to a basket of commodities (e.g., gold, oil, or other goods), ensuring stability and neutrality, unlike a currency tied to a single nation's economy.
    • Nations with trade surpluses (exporting more than they imported) would accumulate Bancor credits, while those with trade deficits would run Bancor debits.
  2. Symmetrical Adjustment Mechanism:
    • A core feature of Keynes' proposal was its symmetrical treatment of trade surpluses and deficits. Countries with persistent trade surpluses would face penalties (e.g., taxes on excess Bancor credits), just as deficit countries would face pressure to reduce deficits (e.g., through interest charges on overdrafts).
    • This mechanism aimed to incentivize both surplus and deficit countries to adjust their economic policies, preventing chronic imbalances that could destabilize the global economy.
    • For example, surplus countries might be encouraged to increase imports or invest abroad, while deficit countries might devalue their currencies or implement austerity measures.
  3. Global Economic Stability:
    • The ICU would provide liquidity by allowing countries to borrow Bancor to finance temporary deficits, reducing the need for deflationary policies (e.g., severe spending cuts) that often exacerbate economic downturns.
    • The system would prevent the accumulation of unsustainable debts and reduce reliance on a single nation's currency (e.g., the US dollar) as the world's reserve currency, which Keynes saw as a source of instability.
Keynes envisioned this system as a way to foster global economic cooperation, prevent competitive devaluations, and avoid the economic crises of the interwar period, such as the Great Depression.
Relevance Today
Keynes' proposal has gained renewed attention in recent decades due to persistent global economic challenges that his system was designed to address. Its relevance today stems from the following issues:
  1. Persistent Trade Imbalances:
    • Chronic trade surpluses (e.g., in countries like China and Germany) and deficits (e.g., in the United States and other developed economies) have led to tensions in the global economy, including trade wars and currency disputes.
    • Keynes' symmetrical adjustment mechanism would encourage surplus countries to boost domestic demand or invest abroad, reducing global imbalances. For instance, China's large trade surpluses and the US's persistent deficits mirror the imbalances Keynes sought to address.
  2. US Dollar Dominance:
    • The current global monetary system relies heavily on the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, giving the United States significant influence over global finance (the so-called "exorbitant privilege"). This creates vulnerabilities, as US monetary policy decisions (e.g., interest rate hikes) can destabilize other economies.
    • Keynes' Bancor, as a neutral international currency, would reduce dependence on any single nation's currency, a concern echoed in recent discussions about "de-dollarization" by countries like China, Russia, and others seeking alternatives to the dollar.
  3. Global Financial Crises:
    • The 2008 financial crisis and subsequent global economic challenges highlighted the fragility of the current system, where liquidity shortages in deficit countries can lead to severe recessions. The ICU's ability to provide Bancor liquidity could mitigate such crises.
    • For example, during the Eurozone debt crisis (2010–2012), a mechanism like the ICU could have provided liquidity to struggling economies like Greece without imposing harsh austerity measures.
  4. Cryptocurrencies and Digital Currencies:
    • The rise of cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) has sparked interest in alternative global monetary systems. Bancor’s concept of a supranational currency resonates with proposals for a global digital currency to facilitate trade and reduce reliance on national currencies.
  5. Climate and Development Financing:
    • Keynes' idea of a neutral reserve asset tied to commodities could be adapted to address modern challenges like climate change. For instance, a Bancor-like system could finance green investments or support developing nations, aligning with calls for a reformed international financial architecture to address global public goods.
Recent discussions among economists and policymakers, including proposals from figures like Zhou Xiaochuan (former governor of the People's Bank of China) in 2009, have revived interest in a Bancor-like system to reform the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) or create a new global reserve asset.
Why Keynes' Proposal Was Rejected
Despite its forward-thinking design, Keynes' proposal was rejected at Bretton Woods in favor of the US-led system, which established the US dollar as the global reserve currency, pegged to gold, and created the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. Several factors contributed to this outcome:
  1. US Economic and Political Dominance:
    • In 1944, the United States was the world’s preeminent economic and military power, contributing the majority of resources to the Allied war effort and holding significant gold reserves. The US delegation, led by Harry Dexter White, prioritized a system that reinforced American influence.
    • The US preferred a system where the dollar, convertible to gold at a fixed rate ($35 per ounce), served as the global reserve currency. This gave the US significant control over international finance, as other currencies were pegged to the dollar.
  2. Resistance to Symmetrical Adjustments:
    • Surplus countries, particularly the US at the time, opposed Keynes' symmetrical adjustment mechanism, which would have penalized them for running large trade surpluses. The US, as a major exporter post-World War II, benefited from accumulating reserves without facing penalties.
    • The US delegation argued that deficit countries should bear the primary responsibility for adjusting their economies, aligning with a more traditional view of fiscal discipline.
  3. Complexity and Skepticism:
    • Keynes' proposal was seen as complex and radical, requiring unprecedented international cooperation to establish and manage the ICU. Many countries were skeptical about ceding sovereignty to a supranational institution.
    • The Bancor concept, as a non-national currency, was unfamiliar and faced resistance from countries accustomed to gold or national currencies as reserves.
  4. Geopolitical Tensions:
    • The Bretton Woods negotiations occurred during World War II, with the US and UK as key allies but with differing economic priorities. The UK, heavily indebted and economically weakened, sought a system to support reconstruction, while the US aimed to cement its postwar dominance.
    • Harry Dexter White’s plan, which emphasized the dollar’s role and created the IMF with limited powers compared to the ICU, was more palatable to the US and its allies.
  5. Keynes' Limited Bargaining Power:
    • Although Keynes was a brilliant economist, the UK’s weakened economic position (due to war debts and reliance on US aid through Lend-Lease) limited his negotiating leverage. The US, as the dominant creditor nation, held the upper hand in shaping the agreement.
Why Keynes Was Correct
Keynes' proposal was prescient in anticipating the flaws of a dollar-centric system and the risks of global imbalances:
  1. Avoiding Deflationary Pressures:
    • Keynes recognized that forcing deficit countries to bear the full burden of adjustment (through austerity or devaluation) could lead to deflationary spirals, as seen in the 1930s. His system would have provided liquidity and shared responsibility, promoting global growth.
  2. Preventing Currency Weaponization:
    • A neutral reserve currency like Bancor would have reduced the ability of any single nation to use its currency as a geopolitical tool, a concern today with US sanctions and dollar dominance.
  3. Long-Term Stability:
    • The symmetrical adjustment mechanism would have discouraged persistent imbalances, which have contributed to modern crises like the Eurozone debt crisis and US-China trade tensions.
  4. Flexibility for Crises:
    • The ICU’s ability to create Bancor liquidity could have mitigated financial crises by providing a buffer for struggling economies, unlike the IMF’s often conditional lending.
Conclusion
John Maynard Keynes’ proposal for an International Clearing Union and Bancor at Bretton Woods was a visionary attempt to create a balanced, cooperative global monetary system. It was rejected due to US dominance, resistance to symmetrical adjustments, and the complexity of the plan, but its principles remain highly relevant today amid persistent trade imbalances, dollar dominance, and calls for monetary reform. Keynes lost the debate due to geopolitical realities, but his foresight in addressing systemic flaws continues to inspire discussions about reforming the global financial architecture, including proposals for enhancing the role of SDRs or exploring digital global currencies.
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