Summary of the Russia-Ukraine War (July 2024 – July 2025)
Over the past year, the Russia-Ukraine war has seen intensified military clashes, stalled diplomatic efforts, and shifting global dynamics. The conflict remains deadlocked, with escalating violence and little progress toward a durable peace. Below are key developments and challenges from July 2024 to July 2025:
Military Developments
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Russian Advances:
Russian forces made significant gains in southern Ukraine, capturing strategic areas such as Stepove in Zaporizhzhia. By March 2025, they had pushed Ukrainian forces out of parts of Kursk Oblast. Russia intensified its use of drones (including Chinese-made models), missiles, and even chemical weapons. In July 2025, Russia launched a record 550 drone and missile strikes in a single night, targeting Kyiv and multiple urban centers.
[Sources: Sky News, BBC] -
Ukrainian Resistance:
Ukraine mounted notable operations, including “Operation Spider’s Web”, which deployed over 100 drones to strike Russian military targets. Ukrainian forces also sabotaged a Russian-constructed bridge in Crimea using underwater explosives. However, Ukraine faced severe manpower shortages, prompting retreats from key areas such as Kurakhove in Donetsk.
[Sources: BBC, Sky News] -
Foreign Involvement:
North Korea deepened its support for Russia by sending military personnel to bolster operations in Kursk and supplying artillery shells and ballistic missiles. This marked a significant international escalation in the war.
[Source: Institute for the Study of War] -
Civilian Impact:
The war has caused over 40,000 civilian casualties, displaced 3.7 million people internally, and created over 6.9 million refugees. Repeated Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have left large swaths of the population without power during the winter. Ukraine also accused Russia of violating agreed ceasefire terms.
[Sources: CFR, NYT]
Diplomatic Efforts
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Ceasefire Attempts:
In March 2025, Ukraine accepted a U.S.-brokered 30-day ceasefire, under which the U.S. resumed military aid and intelligence sharing. Russia agreed to a limited pause in attacks on energy facilities but rejected broader terms, insisting on addressing what it called the war’s “root causes”—including NATO expansion.
[Sources: Al Jazeera, NYT] -
Direct Talks:
Russia and Ukraine held two rounds of direct negotiations in Istanbul (May–June 2025), agreeing to a 1,000-prisoner swap and the repatriation of 6,000 soldiers’ remains. However, talks broke down over Russia’s maximalist territorial demands, and no lasting ceasefire was reached.
[Sources: Al Jazeera, Reuters] -
U.S. Involvement:
President Trump attempted to mediate by engaging both Putin and Zelenskyy. While he threatened renewed sanctions on Russia, he also pressured Ukraine to consider territorial concessions, straining U.S.-Ukraine relations. The Trump administration’s approach has been marked by mixed messages and inconsistent support.
[Sources: CFR, Atlantic Council] -
European Role:
France and the UK proposed forming a “coalition of the willing” to provide security guarantees and peacekeeping forces. Russia, however, rejected any European military presence in Ukraine.
[Sources: The Guardian, Atlantic Council]
Other Key Developments
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Sanctions and Economic Impact:
The U.S. and its allies imposed more than 21,000 new sanctions on Russia, targeting sectors such as banking, energy, and defense. Russian officials acknowledged the economy was nearing recession-level contraction due to international isolation.
[Sources: Al Jazeera, BBC] -
Humanitarian Issues:
Nearly 16,000 Ukrainian civilians remain in Russian detention, with both sides accusing each other of war crimes, including torture and indiscriminate bombing.
[Sources: BBC, Reuters]
Impediments to Ceasefire and Peace
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Russia’s Maximalist Demands:
Russia insists Ukraine recognize its annexation of Crimea and four occupied regions—Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—as Russian territory. Moscow also demands Ukraine withdraw from these areas and abandon its pursuit of NATO membership. President Putin has continued making inflammatory claims such as “all of Ukraine is ours,” showing little room for compromise.
[Sources: Wikipedia, Al Jazeera] -
Ukraine’s Security Needs:
Ukraine is demanding robust security guarantees, preferably NATO membership or at least the deployment of European peacekeeping forces. Memories of the failed Minsk agreements and continued Russian aggression have led Ukraine to reject any “frozen conflict” outcome. President Zelenskyy has remained firm on the need to restore Ukraine’s 1991 borders.
[Sources: Carnegie Endowment, The Guardian] -
Mutual Distrust and Ceasefire Violations:
Trust remains low, with each side accusing the other of breaking temporary ceasefires. Russia reportedly continued targeting civilian infrastructure even during energy truces, while Ukraine conducted strikes on Russian oil depots. These incidents undermine confidence in future agreements.
[Sources: The Guardian, Al Jazeera] -
Ambiguity in U.S. Policy:
The Trump administration has sent mixed signals—pausing aid to pressure Ukraine into talks, then threatening Russia with renewed sanctions. While Trump supports a negotiated peace, his administration's hesitancy on NATO expansion and inconsistent commitment to Ukraine have weakened Kyiv’s diplomatic position.
[Sources: CFR, Atlantic Council] -
International and Strategic Dynamics:
Russia’s growing alliances—with North Korea, Iran, and others—provide it with a steady supply of weapons and diplomatic cover. Ukraine remains dependent on Western support, which is complicated by U.S. domestic political divisions. European nations are willing to help but face Russian resistance to any peacekeeping deployments.
[Sources: Understanding War, Atlantic Council] -
Battlefield Trends:
Russia’s territorial gains in early 2025, along with Ukraine’s personnel shortages, reduce Kyiv’s leverage in peace talks. Russia’s strategy of prolonging negotiations while entrenching control over occupied territories appears designed to change facts on the ground.
The use of chemical weapons by Russia and Ukraine’s retaliatory long-range strikes continue to escalate the conflict.
[Sources: Economist, Al Jazeera]
Conclusion
From July 2024 to July 2025, the Russia-Ukraine war has intensified both militarily and diplomatically. Despite temporary ceasefires and limited humanitarian agreements, no comprehensive peace has emerged. Russia’s hardline stance, Ukraine’s demands for security guarantees, mutual distrust, ambiguous U.S. policy, and complex global alignments all obstruct a durable resolution.
Unless there is sustained Western pressure on Moscow and credible long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, the war is likely to drag on—either as a simmering stalemate or a renewed large-scale conflict.
[Sources: Atlantic Council, CFR]
The Referendum Path to Peace in Ukraine: A Formula for Lasting Resolution
The Russia-Ukraine war has entered its third year with no clear end in sight. Tens of thousands have died, millions displaced, and both economies—especially Ukraine’s—have been severely damaged. Despite several ceasefire attempts, prisoner exchanges, and international mediation efforts, a comprehensive peace agreement remains elusive.
But amidst the deadlock, there is one proposal that offers a legitimate, democratic, and morally defensible path forward: a referendum in the five disputed regions—Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Crimea—after the complete withdrawal of both the Russian and Ukrainian armies. This idea, detailed in the book Formula For Peace In Ukraine Amazon link, presents a clear and principled framework rooted in self-determination, sovereignty, and international oversight.
Why a Referendum?
At the heart of this proposal is a recognition of a fundamental truth: no durable peace can be imposed—it must be chosen. And for that to happen, the people of these contested regions must be allowed to decide their future freely, without coercion from occupying forces or propaganda from either side.
A properly monitored, internationally supervised referendum—conducted only after both Russian and Ukrainian forces have completely withdrawn—offers the only credible mechanism to resolve these disputes peacefully.
The Problem with the Status Quo
The current situation is unsustainable:
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Russia continues to occupy territory it annexed through force, with no international recognition beyond a handful of states.
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Ukraine, backed by international law and widespread global support, demands the return of all its 1991 borders.
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Millions in the disputed regions live under uncertainty, caught in a geopolitical tug-of-war.
Military victory is unlikely to deliver long-term peace for either side. A frozen conflict would only breed future instability. Only a negotiated solution that centers the will of the people can break the cycle.
Preconditions for a Legitimate Referendum
For a referendum to be a true expression of self-determination, several non-negotiable preconditions must be met:
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Total Withdrawal of All Armed Forces:
Both Russian and Ukrainian troops must exit the disputed territories. Neutral international peacekeepers, perhaps under UN or OSCE mandates, should maintain order during the transition. -
Return of Displaced Residents:
All civilians who were forced to flee—regardless of ethnicity or political beliefs—must be allowed to return and register to vote, ensuring the result reflects the original population. -
Media Freedom and Civil Society Access:
Independent press and civil society organizations must have unrestricted access to educate voters and monitor the campaign period. -
International Oversight:
A credible third-party—possibly a coalition including the UN, EU, and neutral non-NATO states—should manage the logistics, voting process, and verification of results. -
Binding Commitment to Outcome:
Russia and Ukraine must publicly agree in advance to honor the results of the referenda, whatever they may be, and commit to not retaliate diplomatically, militarily, or economically.
Why This Is the Best Path Forward
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For Ukraine: It demonstrates a commitment to democracy and international law. Ukraine can reclaim moral leadership by showing it will respect the will of its people—even in contested areas—if the process is free and fair.
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For Russia: If the population genuinely desires closer ties with Russia, Moscow gets legitimacy it currently lacks. If not, it saves itself from the cost of indefinite occupation and global pariah status.
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For the World: The global community is desperate for a blueprint that avoids future wars. A peaceful referendum, carried out under strict international norms, can become a model for resolving other intractable conflicts.
Addressing Objections
“Won’t Russia manipulate the referendum?”
Not if the vote is held after withdrawal and is overseen by international monitors with access to all precincts. Any deviations can be transparently challenged and corrected.
“Isn’t this rewarding aggression?”
On the contrary. It denies Russia any gains from invasion and forces a reset. It also avoids forcing populations into allegiance against their will—a mistake that has haunted past conflicts.
“Wouldn’t Ukraine lose territory?”
Possibly—but not through war or coercion. And if the people vote to remain with Ukraine, it strengthens Ukraine’s unity through consent, not force.
The Moral Case
Peace cannot be achieved through revenge. It must be pursued through justice, dignity, and fairness. By allowing those who have suffered most—the residents of the disputed regions—to freely decide their future, we move from wars of ideology to dialogues of democracy.
As outlined in Formula For Peace In Ukraine, a referendum is not capitulation—it is a courageous act of trust in the power of people.
Conclusion
The current approach—protracted war, shifting front lines, and endless sanctions—is bleeding both sides with no end in sight. The path of a referendum-based peace offers a light at the end of the tunnel. It honors international law, protects national dignity, and places power where it belongs: with the people.
The time has come to stop fighting over land, and start trusting in democracy.
For more details on this proposal, refer to the book Formula For Peace In Ukraine.
यूक्रेन में शांति के लिए जनमत संग्रह का रास्ता: एक स्थायी समाधान का सूत्र
रूस-यूक्रेन युद्ध तीसरे वर्ष में प्रवेश कर चुका है और अब भी इसका कोई स्पष्ट अंत दिखाई नहीं देता। हजारों लोग मारे जा चुके हैं, लाखों विस्थापित हो चुके हैं, और विशेष रूप से यूक्रेन की अर्थव्यवस्था तबाह हो गई है। कई युद्धविराम प्रयासों और अंतरराष्ट्रीय मध्यस्थताओं के बावजूद, एक व्यापक शांति समझौता अब भी अधूरा है।
लेकिन इस गतिरोध के बीच एक ऐसा प्रस्ताव है जो न्यायसंगत, लोकतांत्रिक और नैतिक रूप से ठोस समाधान पेश करता है:
पांच विवादित क्षेत्रों—लुहान्स्क, डोनेट्स्क, ज़ापोरिज़िया, खेरसॉन और क्रीमिया—में दोनों सेनाओं की पूर्ण वापसी के बाद जनमत संग्रह।
यह विचार Formula For Peace In Ukraine नामक पुस्तक में विस्तार से रखा गया है: Amazon लिंक
जनमत संग्रह क्यों जरूरी है?
इस प्रस्ताव की जड़ में एक सरल लेकिन महत्वपूर्ण सत्य छिपा है: स्थायी शांति थोपी नहीं जा सकती—उसे चुना जाना चाहिए। और इसके लिए जरूरी है कि इन विवादित क्षेत्रों के लोग बिना किसी दबाव या सैन्य उपस्थिति के, स्वतंत्र रूप से अपना भविष्य तय कर सकें।
एक अंतरराष्ट्रीय निगरानी में निष्पक्ष और पारदर्शी जनमत संग्रह ही एकमात्र ऐसा विश्वसनीय तरीका है जिससे इन विवादों को शांतिपूर्वक सुलझाया जा सकता है।
वर्तमान स्थिति की समस्याएँ
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रूस बलपूर्वक कब्जा किए गए क्षेत्रों को अपना हिस्सा घोषित कर चुका है, लेकिन उसे वैश्विक मान्यता नहीं मिली है।
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यूक्रेन अंतरराष्ट्रीय कानून और समर्थन के साथ अपने 1991 के संप्रभु सीमा की बहाली की मांग कर रहा है।
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इन क्षेत्रों में रह रहे नागरिक निरंतर भय, अस्थिरता और राजनीतिक असमंजस में जी रहे हैं।
युद्ध से कोई स्थायी समाधान नहीं निकल सकता। एक "जमा हुआ संघर्ष" (frozen conflict) केवल भविष्य में और अधिक अशांति की नींव रखेगा। केवल वही समाधान कारगर होगा जो इन क्षेत्रों के लोगों की स्वतंत्र इच्छा को सम्मान देता हो।
एक वैध जनमत संग्रह की शर्तें
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पूर्ण सैन्य वापसी
रूसी और यूक्रेनी सेनाओं को इन पांच क्षेत्रों से पूरी तरह हटना होगा। इस दौरान सुरक्षा बनाए रखने के लिए संयुक्त राष्ट्र या ओएससीई जैसी तटस्थ अंतरराष्ट्रीय शांति सेनाओं की तैनाती की जा सकती है। -
विस्थापितों की वापसी
जो नागरिक युद्ध के कारण भाग गए थे, उन्हें वापस लौटकर वोट करने का अधिकार दिया जाना चाहिए ताकि जनमत वास्तविक जनसंख्या को दर्शाए। -
स्वतंत्र मीडिया और नागरिक संस्थाएं
निष्पक्ष जानकारी और प्रचार सुनिश्चित करने के लिए स्वतंत्र मीडिया और गैर-सरकारी संगठनों को क्षेत्र में पूर्ण पहुंच मिलनी चाहिए। -
अंतरराष्ट्रीय निगरानी
चुनाव प्रक्रिया, मतगणना और सत्यापन सभी अंतरराष्ट्रीय संस्था के अधीन होने चाहिए। -
परिणाम को मान्यता देने की अग्रिम स्वीकृति
रूस और यूक्रेन को पहले से ही यह संकल्प लेना होगा कि वे परिणाम को स्वीकार करेंगे—चाहे जो भी हो—और किसी प्रकार की सैन्य या आर्थिक प्रतिक्रिया नहीं देंगे।
यह रास्ता सबसे बेहतर क्यों है?
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यूक्रेन के लिए: यह दिखाता है कि वह लोकतंत्र और अंतरराष्ट्रीय कानून में विश्वास रखता है। यदि जनमत यूक्रेन के पक्ष में आता है, तो वह एकता को बलपूर्वक नहीं, बल्कि जनता की इच्छा से प्राप्त करता है।
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रूस के लिए: यदि लोग सचमुच रूस के साथ जुड़ना चाहते हैं, तो उसे वैधता प्राप्त होगी। यदि नहीं, तो रूस बिना भारी लागत के पीछे हट सकता है।
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विश्व के लिए: यह प्रस्ताव एक ऐसा उदाहरण बन सकता है जो दुनिया भर के अन्य जटिल संघर्षों को शांतिपूर्ण समाधान के लिए प्रेरित करे।
आलोचनाओं का उत्तर
"रूस जनमत को प्रभावित करेगा!"
यदि वोटिंग सेनाओं की वापसी के बाद और अंतरराष्ट्रीय निगरानी में हो, तो हेराफेरी की संभावना नगण्य होगी।
"क्या यह आक्रमण को इनाम देने जैसा नहीं होगा?"
नहीं। यह युद्ध के ज़रिए नहीं, बल्कि लोकतांत्रिक तरीके से लोगों की राय जानने का प्रयास है। यदि परिणाम यूक्रेन के पक्ष में आता है, तो यह रूस के आक्रमण की नैतिक हार होगी।
"यूक्रेन को क्षेत्र खोना पड़ सकता है!"
संभव है, लेकिन केवल जनता की इच्छा के आधार पर—not by force. और यदि क्षेत्र यूक्रेन में ही रहना चाहते हैं, तो यह पूरे विश्व के सामने उसकी वैधता को प्रमाणित करेगा।
नैतिक दृष्टिकोण
शांति बदले की भावना से नहीं लाई जा सकती। उसे न्याय, सम्मान और स्वतंत्रता से हासिल करना होगा। जब हम सबसे ज्यादा पीड़ित लोगों—विवादित क्षेत्रों के नागरिकों—को ही अपना भविष्य तय करने दें, तो हम हिंसा नहीं, बल्कि लोकतंत्र का मार्ग चुनते हैं।
Formula For Peace In Ukraine पुस्तक में जिस तरह से यह विचार प्रस्तुत किया गया है, वह सिर्फ रणनीतिक नहीं—नैतिक दृष्टि से भी सही है।
निष्कर्ष
2024-2025 के दौरान जारी युद्ध ने यह सिद्ध कर दिया है कि सैन्य समाधान स्थायी नहीं होता। शांति केवल तभी आएगी जब दोनों पक्षों की सेनाएं पीछे हटें, और विवादित क्षेत्रों के लोगों को निष्पक्ष जनमत के माध्यम से अपना भविष्य चुनने का अधिकार दिया जाए।
यह प्रस्ताव रूस-यूक्रेन संघर्ष को समाप्त करने का सबसे व्यावहारिक, न्यायोचित और लोकतांत्रिक तरीका हो सकता है।
अधिक जानकारी के लिए पढ़ें: Formula For Peace In Ukraine
🧵THREAD: The Only Viable Path to Peace in Ukraine? A Referendum in Disputed Regions
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 5, 2025
After 3 years of bloodshed, there’s still no peace between Russia and Ukraine.
Formula For Peace In Ukraine https://t.co/p53RRpxPfJ
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 5, 2025
1/
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 5, 2025
This plan, detailed in the book Formula For Peace In Ukraine (https://t.co/p53RRpxPfJ), proposes a democratic solution rather than a military one.
The 5 regions:
Crimea
Donetsk
Luhansk
Zaporizhzhia
Kherson
Each would hold a UN-supervised vote. @realDonaldTrump
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— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 5, 2025
Why is this the best path forward?
✅ It ends war through consent, not conquest.
✅ It honors self-determination.
✅ It avoids indefinite conflict or frozen war.
Military victory is uncertain. Diplomatic trust is low. A people’s vote is a way out. @narendramodi @PMOIndia
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— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 5, 2025
The alternatives?
❌ Endless war
❌ A frozen conflict like in Georgia or Transnistria
❌ Civilian suffering on both sides
❌ Rising global instability
Isn’t letting people decide better than more bloodshed? @TuckerCarlson @DineshDSouza @mehdirhasan
Let them vote.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 5, 2025
📘 Read more: Formula For Peace In Ukraine https://t.co/p53RRpxPfJ#Ukraine #Russia #Peace #Geopolitics #Referendum #UkraineWar @ZelenskyyUa @EmmanuelMacron @MacronHQ @Ukraine @DefenceU @MFA_Ukraine @MEAIndia
