Friday, May 31, 2019

The Possible Outline Of A Deal Between Xi And Trump In June

Will The Trade War Force A New Equilibrium?

  • Both parties agree to roll back all tariffs immediately. 
  • The US ends its harassment of Huawei, although it could choose to not use Huawei equipment for its 5G efforts. China lays to rest its rare earth minerals threats. 
  • China agrees to a set of structural reforms and agrees to a review of the progress every two years. 
  • China agrees to buy substantially more agricultural products from the US. 
  • China agrees to additional purchases to the tune of $30 billion. 
  • Both powers agree to call a meeting of the WTO for a new round of negotiations with all countries of the world participating. The US takes all its grievances to the WTO. The negotiations might last a few years. 
  • The two powers organize a gathering of the top 100 technology companies of the world for a Privacy And Security Summit along the lines of the Rio Summit in 1992 for the environment on the sidelines of the G20 Summit next year. The top 20 economies and the top 100 tech companies thrash out solutions. How much of it is about agreeing on common standards? How much of it is about lawmaking and law enforcement? How could the law enforcement agencies of the world cooperate? How much of it is technical? How much is beyond reach and awaiting further advances in technology? 
  • The T100 is a permanent forum meeting annually on the sidelines of G20. 



No President Is Above the Law First, a hostile foreign government attacked our 2016 election to help candidate Donald Trump get elected. Second, candidate Donald Trump welcomed that help. Third, when the federal government tried to investigate, now-President Donald Trump did everything he could to delay, distract, and otherwise obstruct that investigation....... That’s a crime. ..... He’s referring President Trump for impeachment, and it’s up to Congress to act.

Business groups are considering legal action against the White House over Mexico tariffs The powerful U.S. Chamber of Commerce is mulling its legal options in response to the duties...... While top business organizations have repeatedly slammed tariffs Trump levied on trading partners such as Mexico, Canada and China, a lawsuit would mark a major escalation in their opposition to White House trade policy....... The duties could damage key U.S. industries such as auto manufacturing, and crucial 2020 electoral states such as Arizona, Michigan and Texas could feel particularly sharp pain from the tariffs.

GOP lawmakers, business groups slam Trump's Mexico tariff threat
Making Sense of the New American Right
Trump and Bibi’s Bad Week
Trump's approval rating hits highest point in two years
Jeremy Siegel says Trump must cut a trade deal with China to protect the two pillars his re-election case: The strong stock market and economy “The market wants a solution,” says Siegel. “Don’t forget, the market didn’t really want this trade war.” .... Since Trump’s tariff-threat tweet on May 5, the S&P 500 has lost about $1.1 trillion in value. ....... stocks could drop 10% to 20% if the U.S. and China were to dig in during trade talks, he said, “The market is going to continue to react” if Trump wants to push China to be the end....... “You can pull victory out of defeat. No one is really going to look at the details,” the Wharton professor said, stressing that the president has a bully pulpit to cast any agreement with China as a victory even if it’s just so-so.

Beijing experts’ latest message as trade talks stall: The US needs China sentiment contrasts with that of Chinese state-run media, which is emphasizing China’s ability to stand up to the U.S. ...... as long as there is negotiation, then there will be results ..... Beijing would like to keep negotiating with the U.S. It could even be a years-long process that cycles through negotiation and fights ...... China has been removing ownership restrictions in some industries such as financial services and autos. This March, Beijing also rushed to pass a new foreign investment law that officially prohibits forced technology transfer and increases the protection of intellectual property rights. In June, the government is also set to release an expanded list of industries to which foreign businesses can have access. ...... Some have hoped the trade tensions would push Beijing toward important changes to the structure of its economy.



We asked the Democrats running for president how they would negotiate with China on trade. Here’s what they said “Donald Trump has shown he knows nothing about trade,” says Rep. Seth Moulton...... Five Democrats say any trade deal with China should address human rights issues. Among them: Sen. Bernie Sanders, who said he would target American firms that provide surveillance equipment. ...... “China is going to eat our lunch? Come on, man,” Biden told a crowd in Iowa earlier this month. ....... Sanders: It is in the interests of the United States to work to strengthen institutions like the WTO and the UN rather than trying to go it alone. American concerns about China’s technology practices are shared in Europe and across the Asia-Pacific. We can place far more pressure on China to change its policies if we work together with the broader international community and the other developed economies. International institutions also offer China a template for reforming its own internal intellectual property and industrial practices. ...... Sanders: Yes. Labor protections are very weak in China, and the rights of workers are an essential component of human rights. The Trump administration has proven itself indifferent to labor rights, and apparently would prefer that American workers are reduced to the position of Chinese workers, rather than that labor everywhere enjoy basic protections and strong standard of living. The Trump administration has also done nothing to pressure China over its abhorrent treatment of the Uighur and Tibetan peoples. Future trade negotiations should, for example, target American corporations that contribute surveillance technologies that enable China’s authoritarian practices............ Sanders: While China has adopted some better practices, it still has a long way to go. The Trump administration is correct to put pressure on China to reform its practices, and I hope that some good comes from current trade negotiations. The economic relationship between the United States and China has been the engine of global growth for the past 25 years, and we should acknowledge that in China it has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. In both China and the United States, however, the benefits of this growth have not been shared equally, and have accrued in a very disproportionate way to the very wealthiest. The problem is that the Trump administration is mainly interested in addressing some of the imbalances between America and China overall, when it also needs to address basic drivers of economic inequality. The future of this relationship requires both a degree of pressure on China, and reform of the economy inside the United States itself. ....... Sanders: The U.S. has a role to play in supporting bilateral and multilateral diplomacy between China and others in the region to deescalate and handle disputes. The best policy in both the near and long term is to strengthen international institutions, in this case the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The United States should press China to abide by internationally agreed guidelines for managing maritime issues, in no small part by ratifying UNCLOS itself. ......





Elon Musk’s SpaceX is now worth more than Tesla Musk is the largest shareholder and CEO of both companies, with a 54% stake in SpaceX and more than 20% ownership of Tesla........ investors shouldn’t rule out the possibility that Musk could use his SpaceX stake to “collateralize” Tesla. “There’s a precedent for Elon Musk to think across his portfolio of companies”

Cramer: The US economy ‘could be on the verge of a significant slowdown’ executives are also weighing the odds of the Democratic Party winning the White House in 2020 ...... “yields don’t protect you anymore ... the stocks keep falling on fears of a worldwide tariff-related slowdown.”

Markets signal to US and China on the trade war: You have ‘blundered into a minefield’

The New York Fed’s gauge of recession probability over the next 12 months is now at 27.5%, the highest since the financial crisis.

..... “It’s like lighting a match. You think you know how to control it. That’s where the uncertainty comes in” ...... Whether it’s increased expectations for interest rate cuts, decreasing expectations for inflation or queasy bond and stock market investors who are more aggressively pricing in slower growth, the message is being sent to the U.S. and China that danger lurks. ..... the ecosystem around the economy and the trade headlines remains fragile.

China won when Trump blindsided Mexico with tariffs, says former Mexican ambassador to China
US manufacturing activity dives to more than 9-year low on trade war worries, survey shows
Grover Norquist urges Trump to get rid of trade tariffs, calling them taxes on US consumers
Major Wall Street banks jeer Trump’s Mexico tariffs: ‘Damaging at a number of levels’
‘Very dangerous’: Putin, Trump want to weaken the European Union, top official says
GOP lawmakers, business groups slam Trump's Mexico tariff threat

Making Sense of the New American Right The conservative intellectual movement has been and continues to be fractious, contentious, combustible, and less of a force than most assume....... The debate over Trump's character and fitness for office opened, or poured salt on, wounds that have not and will not heal. ...... The president did not win a majority, captured a smaller percentage of the popular vote than Mitt Romney, and took the Electoral College thanks to 77,000 votes spread over three states. It is also the case that to date President Trump has been most successful when he has adhered to the traditional Republican program of tax cuts, defense spending, and judicial appointments. ........ The rise of Donald Trump, Brexit, and nation-state populism throughout the world certainly suggest that something has changed in global politics. American conservatism ought to investigate, recognize, and assimilate the empirical reality before it. The trouble is that no one has concluded definitively what that reality is. ....... They believe the nation-state is the core unit of geopolitics and that national sovereignty and independence are more important than global flows of capital, labor, and commodities....... the conservative terrain has become so difficult to navigate that it's useful to have a map. ..... the people who remind us that America is not ruled from above but driven from below. ...... Social decline, he said, is related to the loss of manufacturing jobs. It happened in the inner cities. Now it's happening in the Rust Belt and in rural America. When jobs disappear and low-skilled male wages decline, family formation breaks down. ...... advocated a national industrial strategy ...... the frayed bonds that barely connect working-class Americans to each other ....... they are certain American foreign policy should be restrained, within constitutional bounds, and prioritize diplomacy over military force. ...... Economic freedom has brought about a global system of trade and finance that has outsourced jobs, shifted resources to the metropolitan coasts, and obscured its self-seeking under the veneer of social justice. Personal freedom has ended up in the mainstreaming of pornography, alcohol, drug, and gambling addiction, abortion, single-parent families, and the repression of orthodox religious practice and conscience. ..... the "strong gods" of familial, national, and religious authority. ...... turning away from the secular world and shielding, as best you can, spiritual life. ...... "to use these values [of civility and decency] to enforce our order and our orthodoxy, not pretend that they could ever be neutral." ...... Rather than asking the question, ‘What should conservatives/progressives do?' considerable advances can be made through certain purely practical considerations: ‘How can the integrity of the national political community be assured?' ‘How can commercial activity and technological development continue to be turned toward the common good, and toward our own strategic advantage?' ......... For decades now our politics and culture have been dominated by a particular philosophy of freedom. It is a philosophy of liberation from family and tradition; of escape from God and community; a philosophy of self-creation and unrestricted, unfettered free choice. ........ "celebrates the individual," Hawley went on. But "it leads to hierarchy. Though it preaches merit, it produces elitism. Though it proclaims liberty, it destroys the life that makes liberty possible. Replacing it and repairing the profound harm it has caused is one of the great challenges of our day."

Trump and Bibi’s Bad Week Even on Fox News, Mueller’s statement was greeted as a significant blow to the President, with the network’s chief political anchor, Bret Baier, telling viewers that Mueller had directly rebutted Trump’s claim of “no collusion, no obstruction.” ...... Washington and Jerusalem are facing twin crises, disputes over the reach of executive power in the face of scandal and investigation. .....

politics have become a crude reality show

.... “There are all kinds of things happening that, several years ago, could only be a figment of our imagination.” ..... We are living in a real-time seminar on democracy’s dysfunctions. ....... the context of the rise of authoritarian-minded right-wing populists across the Western world ...... It can all seem overwhelming—too many little crises to keep track of. ...... Whether or not there is anything to be done about it, the collapse of the liberal order is, in fact, happening. ........ the number of democratic countries in the world has fallen every year for the past dozen years. ...... E.U. parliamentary elections confirmed that the right-wing populism that fuelled Brexit and political discontent across the continent remains a potent force; populist parties received the largest share of the vote in four of Europe’s six largest countries. ...... Tumult is the new normal.



Trump’s Crazy Mexico Tariff Is Stoking a Meltdown on Wall Street In writing about Donald Trump, there is a daily temptation to say that this time he’s gone too far. ...... Trump’s move could derail congressional approval of a new trade deal with Canada and Mexico. ......

The only real constraints on Trump’s actions are the courts, the opinion polls, and the financial markets.

...... If the new tariffs do go into effect, they will raise the prices for consumers on a wide range of goods, which could produce a popular backlash. ...... eighty-two per cent of self-identified Republicans approve of Trump’s trade policies...... the President of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has already indicated that he won’t jump to attention. ..... (On Thursday, López Obrador sent Trump a letter in which he said, “Please, remember that I do not lack valor, that I am not a coward nor timorous but rather act according to principles.”) ...... Trump seems to believe that he can target anybody for his bullying ..... this latest Trump power play is so extreme and potentially self-destructive that, according to the Wall Street Journal, even his own hard-line trade adviser, Robert Lighthizer, opposed it. ....... On Wall Street, there is a lot of nervousness about where things are heading, and whether Tariff Man understands the risks that he is taking. Financial markets don’t usually go south gradually; they collapse suddenly, in a heap. ....... he’s going to have to blink on tariffs, because the market can’t live with this level of crazy.”

Trump's approval rating hits highest point in two years 48 percent approve of the job Trump is doing ..... “Every point of increase in this range of 45 to 50 improves the possibility of re-election.” ...... The president’s job approval rating is at 42.5 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. A recent Rasmussen Reports survey found Trump at 48 percent, but six other recent polls found him ranging between 38 percent and 44 percent.

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Will The Trade War Force A New Equilibrium?



The pain from the trade war has only just started. And so the two sides might feel like there is some wiggle room, that they can afford to wait a little. But in a year things might look different. If the two sides stay at only increased tariffs for a year or so, that is one thing. But if there is escalation and the US tries to kill Huawei and China clamps down on its rare earth minerals exports, we will move into the territory of unintended consequences.

High tech is not made for self-sufficiency. Only when countries and companies come together can privacy and security issues be tackled. And even then it is hard. But countries going solo is simply not an option. In the field of tech and innovation, the more cross-pollination the better.

Since the US has similar beef with Europe, among others, you could see some realignment.



There is a great chance that a protracted trade war will lead to major domestic political complications for Donald Trump. The impeachment train is independent of the trade war train. The impeachment might or might not happen, but the investigations surely will.

That is not to say China's capacity for pain is substantially greater. A full-fledged trade war could lead to mass unrests. But there are numerous steps to that stage. The markets will jitter and react to every step in between and that will roil the political spheres.

If both sides decide to stay on this side of sanity and do engage in a trade tussle but not a full-blown trade war, then that could lead to a new equilibrium, both between the two powers, and also the powers of the world.

American exceptionalism has never been the same as white supremacist thinking. Every country is unique. In that way, America is also exceptional.

The march towards a new equilibrium is not going to be pain-free, but it need not be too disruptive. The primary hope is that the two powers cut a deal and spare the global economy unnecessary hiccups. The secondary hope is that they don't go too far in their tussle and stay on this side of sanity.



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Mueller Drops A Bomb
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A Sanders-Warren Ticket
Donald Trump Is Messing Up A Good Thing
5G Challenges US Hegemony
India 2050: Amitabh Kant
Brexit, Aexit, And Trump
African Economic Union
Understanding China (2)
Trump's Prospects In 2020
Understanding China
Political Fallout For Xi
Made In China 2025
Trade War: The Spiral Down Scenario
Three Crises: China, Iran, DC Two Out Of Three: Kamala, Andrew, Pete
Modi 2.0 And The 5G Question
Trade War Commentaries
One Million Uighurs
The Mighty Dollar
India 2019: Looks Like A TsuNAMO
2020: The Year Of The Social Democrat
Andrew Yang: Universal Basic Income, Elizabeth Warren: Wealth Tax
Trade War: Intellectual Property
Trade War Endgame Scenarios: Look At Canada, And North Korea For Hints
The US And The Chinese Economies Are Super Well-Connected
Trade War Endgame Scenarios
US China Trade War: A Meeting Of The Hot And Cold Fronts



Trump’s trade wars have cost the stock market $5 trillion and counting: Deutsche Bank
Trump's threat of Mexico trade war sends markets lower
Trade War Starts Changing Manufacturers in Hard-to-Reverse Ways

The new front in Trump’s trade war could cost consumers at least $93 billion But the figures don’t take into account all the impact: That’s because in the critical auto industry, many parts crisscross borders multiple times....... “Production processes would have to be changed in substantial ways to reduce the impact of the tariffs, reducing productivity in a significant way,” said Carlos Capistran, Canada and Mexico economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “This could eventually lead many firms that currently produce in Mexico to relocate to the U.S., significantly impacting growth in Mexico.”..... vehicles are the top U.S. imports from Mexico, worth $93 billion last year. They are followed by electrical machinery ($64 billion), machinery ($63 billion), mineral fuels ($16 billion) and medical instruments ($15 billion) ..... “The big question at the end of the day though is can we really fight two trade wars at the same time?”

Trade war could trigger a ‘global financial crisis,’ says ex-China central bank chief The former central bank chief also attributed recent weakness in the yuan to the market’s reaction to trade tensions, while noting that Beijing would not devalue the currency in response. He said that fundamentals, such as economic growth and foreign exchange reserves, support a stable yuan...... “It can be said, that the U.S. this time has at the wrong time, fought a wrong war, and chosen a wrong opponent” ...... it might be America’s greatest mistake since World War II, or even the country’s founding, all out of unwillingness to accept China as a rising power........ the trade tensions could last 30 years or more, especially since he expects the U.S. will keep on with its investigations — even if a deal is reached in the near term. ...... “I’m confident that time, reason and truth are on our side,” he said. “Our Chinese people will most certainly win, peace will most certainly win.”

John Negroponte: Trump’s new tariff on Mexico is ‘bad politically and bad economically’ “I think it’s both bad politically and bad economically and I don’t think it’s really going to help solve the immigration problem, either, which is what Mr. Trump said he’s trying to attack” ...... U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, a Republican who represents Iowa, slammed the move. He called it a “misuse of presidential tariff authority.”

Shares of US automakers plunge because they have major production in Mexico The big three automakers each have billions of dollars at stake due both production and suppliers in Mexico.....Shares of General Motors, Fiat Chrysler and Ford dropped in trading Friday. ...... Fiat Chrysler dropped 4.9% while General Motors was down 4.5% and Ford skidded 3.1%...... tariffs on Mexico’s imports “threaten the jobs of tens of thousands of Americans here in the United States.” .... GM and Fiat Chrysler import 29% and 24%, respectively, of the total parts for its cars and trucks from Mexico. Ford has the second highest total imported vehicles from Mexico at 17% ...... the host of auto industry suppliers at risk to tariffs on Mexico, including Aptiv, Adient, Dana, Lear, Visteon, Goodyear Tire & Rubber and BorgWarner.



Trump’s trade war polls badly in key states like Pennsylvania, threatening his support for 2020
Surprise Mexican tariffs hurt China agreement chances: ‘How can you trust Trump to honor a deal?’

The US slipped to third place in a ranking of most competitive economies Singapore’s immigration laws, advanced technological infrastructure, availability of skilled labor and efficient ways to set up new businesses helped it advance to the top..... For the first time in nine years, Singapore surpassed the United States and Hong Kong to clinch the title of the world’s most competitive economy ...... With regard to the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, Bris said he “would call it a tantrum in the sense that it is hurting companies in the United States more than in any other country.”...... Indonesia, in particular, leapfrogged 11 places to become the 32nd most competitive economy in the world. Thailand also advanced five places to the 25th position.



France’s health-care system was ranked as the world’s best—Here’s how it compares with the US’ With the Democrats pushing for a government-funded model and President Donald Trump campaigning on repealing Obamacare without a clear alternative, Americans are considering what kind of health care system they may want.



Ray Dalio warns China restricting rare earth metals would be ‘major escalation’ of trade war
China is establishing an ‘unreliable entities’ list that will include companies and people “Foreign enterprises, organizations and individuals that do not comply with market rules, violate the spirit of contract, block or cut supplies to Chinese firms with non-commercial purposes, and seriously damage the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises, will be added to the list of unreliable entities”

Cramer: Trump no longer cares if his China policies hurt American businesses That tanked the shares of a group of chipmakers — Qualcomm, Skyworks Solutions, Broadcom, Micron, and Xilinx — as much as 7.3% ...... Walmart has warned that it will have to raise its prices if Trump goes through with his promises to slap another 25% tariff on $300 billion, on top of the existing $200 billion, worth of Chinese imports...... he’s more concerned about the strong American dollar’s negative impact on the chain’s international sales.

Stocks slump after US expands trade war to Mexico



As U.S.-China tensions escalate, the trade war has morphed into a deeper, harder conflict the conflict with China has widened beyond the original trade-based issues..... Officials on both sides of the Pacific have begun to portray the U.S.-China relationship in nationalistic and emotion-charged terms that suggest a much deeper conflict. ...... Recently, for example, a private group of American economists and trade experts with long-standing experience in China traveled to Beijing, expecting their usual technical give-and-take with Chinese government officials........ Instead, a member of the Chinese Politburo harangued them for almost an hour, describing the U.S.-China relationship as a “clash of civilizations” and boasting that China’s government-controlled system was far superior to the “Mediterranean culture” of the West, with its internal divisions and aggressive foreign policy..... Nothing short of a deal struck directly by the two leaders is likely to avert new rounds of punches and counter-punches over economic and financial ties ...... whether either leader is interested in a stand-down is unclear....... China.. will probably “hunker down and try to get by until either the second term of the Trump administration or the incoming new administration.” ..... the domestic politics, for now, seem to favor conflict, not compromise. ...... The political risk for Trump from potential Democratic opponents in 2020 isn’t from hitting China too hard, but treading too softly or coming away with a weak deal...... the best one might hope for is a temporary truce, and even that will be hard to come by if Trump keeps piling on the pressure. ..... Already one in five U.S. firms operating in China say they face increased inspections and slower customs clearances ........ Beijing also could spur boycotts of popular American products such as Apple iPhones or curtail tourism to the United States, which would be particularly painful for states such as California. And American universities already are fretting about a potential drop-off in full-tuition-paying Chinese students...... Boeing, the single biggest American exporter to China .. Sales to China last year accounted for more than 20% of the company’s commercial aircraft revenue. ...... the next escalation could come in mid-August. That’s when the Commerce Department's 90-day reprieve for Huawei runs out and the Chinese start to find out how long and well Huawei can manage without key Android software updates from Google, as well as crucial chips and other hardware from American suppliers. ..... the possibility of a limited trade deal by fall ..... they’ll need to reset the tone a little bit and try to manage a de-escalation” of the trade war



China Has Rare Earths Plan Ready to Go If Trade War Deepens





There are temples and shrines everywhere – honouring Gods and deities – but none more important than Brahma, the creator, Vishnu, the preserver and Shiva, the destroyer. It’s also the land of the Ramayana and the Mahabharata – echoes of which have reverberated across Southeast Asia. And on the Ganges plain, you can trace the life and death of the Buddha – a vital bond with Southeast Asia’s 150 million or so Buddhists........ India’s US$9.449 trillion economy (currently the third-largest in Purchasing Power Parity terms) and a 7.3 per cent GDP growth rate (the fastest among the G20 nations)..... with China becoming increasingly heavy-handed, Southeast Asia desperately needs India to play a larger role in our future – economics and business is just the beginning.
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