Thursday, May 15, 2025

15: UAE

The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

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Putin and Trump leave Zelenskyy in the dust, skipping peace talks in Turkey
Trump undercuts Ukraine Istanbul talks before they even start
Opinion: Trump’s tariffs won’t bring manufacturing back to America The tariffs invoked retaliation of a 125 percent tariff from China, America’s largest trading partner. They broke an 80-year bond of friendship with our neighbor and closest ally, Canada. They have left our allies in Europe perplexed to embittered. The fallout is not over yet. ........... The economic rationale for the tariffs is they will bring back manufacturing to the U.S. The architect of this outmoded idea is the economist Peter Navarro. His theory is that as goods become more expensive to import into the U.S., companies will start relocating their manufacturing here — an idea called “onshoring” of manufacturing. .........

the idea of onshoring is a fallacy.

........... Onshoring or relocation of manufacturing to a home country is a very complex decision for companies. It is based on the costs of doing business in different countries; tariff and non-tariff barriers of doing business; proximity of production to markets; availability and cost of resources such as raw materials, finance and labor; and companies’ long-term strategies. ......... Onshoring decision analysis itself takes months if not years, and must be cleared by multiple levels within organizations, and by country regulatory agencies at local and national levels. ........ reshoring to America will require investments in land, buildings, equipment and workforces within the U.S. Higher costs on these was a major reason why offshoring occurred in the first place. Costs of all these factors of production have escalated over the past few decades. With under 17 percent of the U.S. economy in the manufacturing sector, some of these factors, and a manufacturing ecosystem, are simply no longer available in America. .......... Reshoring would also require rebuilding the supply chain. Global supply chains are complex and multi-leveled. There are many layers of suppliers based in different countries with different tariff rates. Large companies have thousands of suppliers. Renegotiating contracts can take months or even years. Higher tariffs will increase the cost of supplies from even home-based suppliers, if those suppliers are using imported goods. ........... A third complexity that companies cannot necessarily trust that the current Trump tariffs will remain stable for long enough to match corporate calculations for return on investment. Large-scale investments involved in moving manufacturing across nations run into the hundreds of millions of dollars. These sunk costs take upwards of 10 years to recoup. .......... Trump’s flip-flopping on tariff rates, application dates, delays and reversals in his first administration — and his current attitude that countries can individually negotiate lower tariff deals with him — presents no guarantee of stability. Instead, it injects enormous uncertainty into the decision for any corporate board to accept. Shareholders would likely sue corporate boards that approve such uncertain investments. ..........

the hope that tariffs will lead to onshoring of manufacturing to the U.S. is a fantasy.

......... What can companies to do to minimize the disruption from these tariffs? There are many variations of onshoring that they can consider — re-shoring, friend-shoring, partial onshoring. Companies can re-shore from a present location to a lower-tariffed nation in their current vicinity. They can move to tariff-advantaged friendlier shores. ..... the most likely response for now is for companies to continue rationalizing and diversifying their supply chains.

Trump's tariff strategy can work but America still needs deeper economic reform President Donald Trump’s tariff diplomacy has been a shock treatment to the global economic order, intended as a kind of radiation and chemotherapy to kill the cancer that created the Rust Belt. But overdoing the treatment can kill the patient instead, without removing the carcinogens in the economy. Fortunately, the administration’s negotiators have called a truce, and we can reevaluate the treatment’s effectiveness. .......... President Trump has also used the threat of tariffs very effectively to help secure America’s southern border and stem the flow of fentanyl, which had become the number-one killer of young people. .......... the drama around tariffs has had side effects, like chemotherapy killing off healthy cells in the body. This collateral damage could be found in survey data from the regional Federal Reserve Banks and purchasing manager indexes, all of which pointed to sharp declines in business optimism and planned capital expenditures. ........ the on-again-off-again nature of these tariffs has made it extraordinarily difficult for businesses and consumers to plan. There has also been substantial turbulence in Treasury markets, gold prices, and equities. ........ Just throwing tariffs at the problem is like undergoing chemotherapy and radiation without any lifestyle changes. Imagine enduring all the painful side effects of such treatments while smoking cigarettes, maintaining a poor diet, avoiding exercise, and exposing yourself to asbestos and too much sunlight—that’s the equivalent of what’s happening today!........ the regulatory compliance cost for manufacturers in America is about $50,000 to $60,000 per worker, and then there’s a tax burden on top of that. Reducing trade abuses is insufficient to reform the domestic policies which have made American workers unemployable in many industries.

The real breakthrough in U.S.–China trade talks is much bigger than just tariffs Quietly, Washington and Beijing agreed to establish a formal "trade consultation mechanism," a permanent bilateral platform to hold structured talks on currency policies, market access, and non-tariff barriers. While bureaucratic in tone, this institutional move may prove to be the most consequential economic shift in years. ......... The U.S.–China imbalance isn’t simply a matter of bad trade deals or American overconsumption. It’s a structural problem embedded in the international monetary framework, and for the first time in a generation, both countries appear ready to talk about it seriously. ........... This deeper imbalance is something Stephen Miran—who now serves as chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers—laid out in extraordinary detail in a 41-page report published in November 2024. Titled "A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System," the paper explains how the current dollar-centric model locks the United States into persistent trade deficits while encouraging surplus economies like China to underconsume and overproduce. These excess savings are then recycled into U.S. financial assets, particularly Treasuries, which props up the dollar and erodes American manufacturing. ......... The result? A lopsided economic order where the U.S. acts as consumer of last resort and global debtor-in-chief, while countries like China flood the world with goods but face chronic domestic stagnation. .......... a "Triffin World," referencing economist Robert Triffin’s famous dilemma: When a national currency is also a global reserve, it eventually becomes impossible to balance domestic and international obligations. To satisfy global demand for safe assets, the U.S. must run deficits, which hollow out its own economy. Meanwhile, surplus nations avoid necessary reforms at home because the system rewards their export-heavy models. ........... What Miran proposes is a structural recalibration—realigning currency values to reflect underlying economic conditions, discouraging excessive reserve accumulation, and encouraging more balanced capital flows. ............. The fact that this new U.S.–China mechanism explicitly includes discussions on currency and non-tariff measures suggests that Miran’s framework is already influencing policy. This is more than a détente—it’s the first real move to unwind Bretton Woods II. ..........

The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

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