Barackface: BRICS

Showing posts with label BRICS. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

15: BRICS

World War III Is Unnecessary
Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Thursday, July 10, 2025

A G30 (Or G40) For A New Global Trade Architecture

G7 + BRICS = G30: A Bold Vision for Global Cooperation in the 21st Century

The 30 largest economies with assigned voting power in whole numbers, using this method:

Formula: 40% GDP share + 40% population share + 20% equal vote
The country with the lowest voting power receives 10 votes
All other countries are scaled accordingly, and rounded to the nearest whole number

Abolish the G7. Abolish the BRICS.

The bar chart showing the assigned voting power for the top 30 economies, scaled so the country with the lowest score gets 10 votes. The votes increase based on GDP, population, and equal representation.

The G30 to be revised every 10 years. An annual summit. But working groups that work all year round.

Country	Assigned Votes
China	207
United States	160
India	141
Indonesia	37
Japan	36
Brazil	35
Germany	34
Russia	28
Nigeria	28
United Kingdom	27
Mexico	26
France	26
Italy	23
South Korea	20
Canada	20
Turkey	20
Spain	18
Australia	17
Thailand	16
Saudi Arabia	15
Poland	14
Netherlands	14
Argentina	14
Switzerland	12
Sweden	11
Belgium	11
Austria	10
Norway	10
United Arab Emirates	10
Israel	10

Here’s a proposal for two fictional voting blocs, each totaling close to half of the total votes (~ 750 votes total, so ~ 375 each):

🔹 Blocs Overview

Bloc A – Western & Developed Nations

United States: 160
Germany: 34
United Kingdom: 27
France: 26
Canada: 20
Australia: 17
Netherlands: 14
Switzerland: 12
Sweden: 11
Belgium: 11
Norway: 10
Austria: 10
Israel: 10

Total: 352 votes

Bloc B – Emerging & BRICS+ Nations

China: 207
India: 141
Indonesia: 37
Brazil: 35
Japan: 36
Russia: 28
Nigeria: 28
Mexico: 26
Italy: 23
South Korea: 20
Turkey: 20
Spain: 18
Thailand: 16
Saudi Arabia: 15
Poland: 14
Argentina: 14
United Arab Emirates: 10

Total: 650 votes

That leaves no assigned votes from the smallest group, (e.g. Switzerland et al not used yet). But if we want perfect balance (~ 375 each), we can shift a few:

Move Italy (23) and South Korea (20) to Bloc A ➝ Bloc A = 395, Bloc B = 607
Or more even: move Italy (23), South Korea (20), and Spain (18) ➝ Bloc A = 432, Bloc B = 589

🔧 Adjusted Option: Balanced Blocks (~780 total)

Try switching:

Move Italy (23) and Spain (18) from B to A:

Bloc A (Western + additions)	Votes
Orig. Bloc A (352)	352
+ Italy (+23)	375
+ Spain (+18)	393

Bloc B (Emerging)	Votes
Orig. Bloc B (650)	650
– Italy (–23)	627
– Spain (–18)	609

Still uneven. To balance better, move also South Korea (20):

Bloc A: 352 + 23 + 18 + 20 = 413
Bloc B: 650 – 23 – 18 – 20 = 589

So, Bloc A = 413, Bloc B = 589 — closer, but still off.

To get almost equal (~ 500 each), perhaps also move:

Mexico (26) and Turkey (20) to A:

Bloc A: 413 + 26 + 20 = 459
Bloc B: 589 – 26 – 20 = 543 — that's within ~84 votes (≈11% difference).

✅ Final Suggested Split

Bloc A (Western + Key Emerging):
US, Germany, UK, France, Canada, Australia, Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, Belgium, Norway, Austria, Israel, plus Italy, Spain, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey
→ 459 votes
Bloc B (Large & Resource Nations):
China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Japan, Russia, Nigeria, (remain)*, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Poland, Argentina, UAE
→ 543 votes

Here’s the full list of countries, their assigned voting power, and bloc assignment—with United States and India in Bloc A, the majority bloc:

| Country              | Assigned Votes | Bloc |
|----------------------|----------------|------|
| China                |            207 | B    |
| United States        |            160 | A    |
| India                |            141 | A    |
| Indonesia            |             37 | B    |
| Japan                |             36 | A    |
| Brazil               |             35 | B    |
| Germany              |             34 | A    |
| Russia               |             28 | B    |
| Nigeria              |             28 | B    |
| United Kingdom       |             27 | A    |
| Mexico               |             26 | A    |
| France               |             26 | A    |
| Italy                |             23 | A    |
| Canada               |             20 | A    |
| Turkey               |             20 | B    |
| South Korea          |             20 | A    |
| Spain                |             18 | A    |
| Australia            |             17 | A    |
| Thailand             |             16 | B    |
| Saudi Arabia         |             15 | B    |
| Poland               |             14 | A    |
| Netherlands          |             14 | A    |
| Argentina            |             14 | B    |
| Switzerland          |             12 | B    |
| Sweden               |             11 | A    |
| Belgium              |             11 | A    |
| Austria              |             10 | A    |
| Norway               |             10 | A    |
| United Arab Emirates |             10 | A    |
| Israel               |             10 | A    |

Here are the total votes by bloc:

| Bloc | Total Votes |
|------|-------------|
| A    |         638 |
| B    |         412 |

Bloc A (with the US and India) holds a clear majority.

Reorganizing the United Nations with voting power assigned to every country based on a blended formula like:

40% GDP share + 40% population share + 20% equal vote

…would create a dramatically different global governance structure. Here's how this would likely unfold, along with a table assigning voting power to a representative sample of major and smaller nations using the same system you approved:

🌍 Implications of Reorganizing the UN by Weighted Voting Power

The General Assembly would no longer be “1 country, 1 vote”.
Instead, voting would reflect:
- Economic contribution (GDP),
- Demographic weight (population),
- National sovereignty (equal share).
Majority influence would shift toward:
- India and China due to their huge populations,
- United States, Germany, and Japan due to GDP,
- And small countries would retain minimal, but equal, baseline votes.
Bloc politics would become central to diplomacy. For example:
- A US-India-EU alliance could dominate global resolutions.
- BRICS would have tremendous leverage if united.
Global governance could become more equitable or more contentious, depending on how veto powers and security roles are handled.

🗳️ Voting Power Table – 40% GDP + 40% Population + 20% Equal Vote (Min = 10 votes)

Here’s an illustrative list of 40 countries across regions:

| Country              | Assigned Votes |
|----------------------|----------------|
| China                |            207 |
| United States        |            160 |
| India                |            141 |
| Indonesia            |             37 |
| Japan                |             36 |
| Brazil               |             35 |
| Germany              |             34 |
| Russia               |             28 |
| Nigeria              |             28 |
| United Kingdom       |             27 |
| Mexico               |             26 |
| France               |             26 |
| Italy                |             23 |
| Canada               |             20 |
| Turkey               |             20 |
| South Korea          |             20 |
| Spain                |             18 |
| Australia            |             17 |
| Thailand             |             16 |
| Saudi Arabia         |             15 |
| Poland               |             14 |
| Netherlands          |             14 |
| Argentina            |             14 |
| Ethiopia             |             13 |
| Philippines          |             13 |
| Egypt                |             13 |
| Vietnam              |             12 |
| Iran                 |             12 |
| Pakistan             |             12 |
| South Africa         |             11 |
| Ukraine              |             11 |
| Malaysia             |             11 |
| Switzerland          |             12 |
| Sweden               |             11 |
| Belgium              |             11 |
| Austria              |             10 |
| Norway               |             10 |
| UAE                  |             10 |
| Israel               |             10 |
| Nepal                |             10 |

🟰 Total votes across all UN members would scale to thousands. You could normalize again to 1,000 or 10,000 global votes if needed.

🔮 Possible Outcomes in This New UN

Security Council veto would be obsolete unless reimagined with vote thresholds (e.g., 75% bloc consensus).
Small island nations would lose much influence unless regionally represented.
Africa and South Asia would gain significant voice due to population weight.
Global decisions might become more democratic in population terms, though developed economies would still dominate due to GDP weight.

Here are two fictional blocs, organized so that Bloc A—with the United States, India, and Israel—forms the majority bloc. The blocs are balanced as closely as possible using our assigned voting power from the 30-largest-economy list.

🟦 Bloc A – Majority Bloc (US, India, Israel)

Includes the US, India, Israel, and other key partners:

| Country              | Votes |
|----------------------|------:|
| United States        |   160 |
| India                |   141 |
| Israel               |    10 |
| United Kingdom       |    27 |
| Germany              |    34 |
| Japan                |    36 |
| Canada               |    20 |
| France               |    26 |
| Italy                |    23 |
| Australia            |    17 |
| Spain                |    18 |
| South Korea          |    20 |
| Netherlands          |    14 |
| Sweden               |    11 |
| Belgium              |    11 |
| Austria              |    10 |
| Norway               |    10 |
| United Arab Emirates |    10 |

Total Votes (Bloc A): 568

🟥 Bloc B – *Minority Bloc**

Consists of the remaining countries:

| Country              | Votes |
|----------------------|------:|
| China                |   207 |
| Indonesia            |    37 |
| Brazil               |    35 |
| Russia               |    28 |
| Nigeria              |    28 |
| Mexico               |    26 |
| Turkey               |    20 |
| Thailand             |    16 |
| Saudi Arabia         |    15 |
| Poland               |    14 |
| Argentina            |    14 |
| Switzerland          |    12 |

Total Votes (Bloc B): 452

✅ Quick Summary

Bloc A (US + India + Israel + partners) = 568 votes (majority)
Bloc B (rest of top‑30) = 452 votes
Total votes = 1,020

This might be the only way out for the global economy. The global economy needs a new architecture.

Perhaps the UN itself should be reorganized along these lines.

Wednesday, July 09, 2025

Rethinking Trade: Why the Dollar, the WTO, and Trump’s Policies Broke U.S. Manufacturing—and How a G30 Can Rebuild It

Rethinking Trade: Why the Dollar, the WTO, and Trump’s Policies Broke U.S. Manufacturing—and How a G30 Can Rebuild It

What really damaged U.S. manufacturing?

It wasn’t just globalization. It wasn’t just China. It wasn’t just automation or NAFTA. One of the most under-discussed culprits lies at the heart of the global financial system: the special status of the U.S. dollar.

The Dollar’s Double-Edged Sword

In 1944, at the Bretton Woods Conference, John Maynard Keynes warned against making the U.S. dollar the central reserve currency of the world. He proposed a different vision—a supranational currency called the bancor. But the United States, riding high on its World War II victory and emerging as the world’s dominant industrial power, insisted otherwise.

Keynes saw the trap. A global system built around one national currency would create imbalances that were structurally baked in. The dollar would always be in demand, and the U.S. would have to run massive trade deficits to supply the world with liquidity. That’s exactly what happened. Over decades, this system flooded the U.S. with cheap imports, hollowed out its manufacturing base, and allowed multinational corporations to offshore labor and dodge taxes—while the American working class paid the price.

WTO: Built to Stabilize, Smashed to Pieces

If the dollar system was the invisible lever, the World Trade Organization (WTO) was the visible referee. It brought rules, dispute mechanisms, and multilateral consensus to global commerce.

But in recent years—especially under the Trump administration—the WTO was deliberately sidelined. The United States refused to approve new judges to the Appellate Body, essentially paralyzing the organization’s ability to enforce its own rules. Meanwhile, Trump pivoted to one-on-one, high-pressure trade negotiations and blanket tariffs.

The outcome? A fragmented global trade system, where uncertainty and retaliation replaced predictability and cooperation. Trump’s tariffs may have had short-term appeal, but as economists like Paul Krugman pointed out, they did little to change the trade balance and much to hurt farmers, exporters, and global trust in the U.S.

A New Global Trade Paradigm: G30, Not G7 or BRICS

What’s needed now is a new global architecture, one where no single country dominates and no bloc calls the shots. The idea that the world should be ruled by either the G7 or the BRICS is outdated.

The future lies in a G30—an inclusive new organization of the 30 largest economies by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). This new body would bring together the Global North and South, rich and emerging economies, and establish a fresh, inclusive framework for global trade. No more one-sided rules. No more weaponized tariffs. Just a multilateral approach that recognizes mutual interests.

📘 Read more about this idea:
G7 + BRICS = G30: A Bold Vision for Global Cooperation in the 21st Century

Labor Is Trade Too: Immigration and the Human Supply Chain

We talk endlessly about trade in goods and services, but there’s another kind of trade we ignore at our peril: labor mobility. The Trump administration's crackdown on immigration has global implications—not just human rights, but trade itself.

There is a global labor market. Just as iPhones are made in China, strawberries are picked by migrants in California. Labor crosses borders—legally or not—because capital demands it. And yet we lack a global framework for this flow.

When undocumented workers are rounded up, families torn apart, and entire communities destabilized, we’re not just enacting cruelty—we’re disrupting the global economy. If labor is part of trade, then we need rules to ensure dignity, documentation, and fairness, not mass deportation and fear.

For a powerful fictional exploration of this crisis, see:

What the U.S. Could Be Doing Instead

Despite all the noise, the United States still leads in services, technology, energy, and finance. As explored in the blog post “The Top Prize: Why the U.S. Economy Still Leads the World,” America’s true trade strength lies in value-added exports: software, patents, Hollywood, Wall Street, higher education.

Yet Trump’s trade war fixates on goods. On deficits. On raw numbers that don’t capture the bigger picture. Yes, the U.S. runs a large goods deficit—but it also has a massive services surplus. Taking all trade together—goods, services, foreign direct investment, and corporate revenues parked abroad—might actually reveal a hidden surplus, or at least a far smaller net deficit than advertised.

But focusing on numbers alone is still missing the point. We need a global framework for all aspects of trade, not bilateral brawls that destabilize economies.

Toward a Just and Thriving Trade System

If we want to restore manufacturing in the U.S., protect labor rights globally, and usher in a sustainable trade system that doesn’t crush the planet or working people, we need a radical rethink of trade itself.

These books offer starting points for that conversation:

📘 Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
📘 The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
📘 Trump’s Trade War
📘 The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism

These books look not just at the U.S., but at how emerging alliances like India–U.S., and even new philosophies like Kalkiism, can guide trade and economic cooperation in a fairer direction.

Conclusion: The Next Bretton Woods

In 1944, we chose the dollar. We chose U.S. hegemony. But Keynes was right—it came at a cost. Now, in the 21st century, that system is fraying.

It’s time for a second Bretton Woods, not to entrench another hegemon, but to build a shared global future. G30, not G7. Multilateralism, not tariffs. Rules with dignity, not detention camps. A manufacturing revival built not on nostalgia, but on smart policy, shared responsibility, and global justice.

Let’s start the conversation.

✍️ Read. Share. Organize. The global trade future we want won’t build itself.

व्यापार का पुनर्विचार: किसने तोड़ा अमेरिका का विनिर्माण आधार, और G30 ही समाधान क्यों है

अमेरिकी विनिर्माण को असली नुकसान किसने पहुँचाया?

सिर्फ वैश्वीकरण नहीं। सिर्फ चीन नहीं। न ही केवल स्वचालन या NAFTA। इस पूरी कहानी का एक ऐसा हिस्सा है जिस पर बहुत कम बात होती है—अमेरिकी डॉलर की विशेष स्थिति, जिसे जॉन मेनार्ड कीन्स ने 1944 में ही खतरनाक बताया था।

डॉलर: वरदान या अभिशाप?

1944 में ब्रेटन वुड्स सम्मेलन में, अर्थशास्त्री जॉन मेनार्ड कीन्स ने चेतावनी दी थी कि अमेरिकी डॉलर को वैश्विक रिज़र्व मुद्रा बनाना एक असंतुलित वैश्विक व्यवस्था की नींव रखेगा। उन्होंने इसके बजाय बैंकॉर नामक एक वैश्विक मुद्रा का प्रस्ताव दिया था। लेकिन अमेरिका ने अपनी ताकत के बल पर डॉलर को केंद्र में रखवा दिया।

कीन्स ने जो खतरा देखा था, वह हकीकत बन गया। डॉलर की वैश्विक मांग को पूरा करने के लिए अमेरिका को लगातार व्यापार घाटा चलाना पड़ा, जिससे अमेरिकी बाजारों में सस्ते आयातों की बाढ़ आ गई और घरेलू विनिर्माण चरमरा गया।

WTO: नियमों का संरक्षक, ट्रंप प्रशासन द्वारा नष्ट

डॉलर तो अदृश्य कारण था, लेकिन विश्व व्यापार संगठन (WTO) वह संस्थागत ढांचा था जो वैश्विक व्यापार को नियमों से जोड़ता था। वर्षों तक इसने स्थिरता और सहयोग को बढ़ावा दिया।

लेकिन ट्रंप प्रशासन ने WTO की रीढ़ ही तोड़ दी। उसने न्यायाधिकरण के जजों की नियुक्ति को रोककर WTO के विवाद निवारण तंत्र को निष्क्रिय कर दिया। इसके स्थान पर अमेरिका ने एक-एक देशों से दबाव बनाकर सौदेबाज़ी करनी शुरू की।

इसका परिणाम? अस्थिर और खंडित वैश्विक व्यापार प्रणाली, जिसमें अनिश्चितता और बदले की भावना बढ़ गई। ट्रंप के टैरिफ़ अल्पकालिक दिखावे तो बने, लेकिन अर्थव्यवस्था को नुकसान ही हुआ, जैसा कि कई अर्थशास्त्रियों ने कहा है।

अब क्या करना चाहिए: G7 या BRICS नहीं, G30 चाहिए

आज की दुनिया को किसी एक देश या ब्लॉक द्वारा संचालित करने की नहीं, बल्कि साझेदारी आधारित वैश्विक व्यापार संरचना की ज़रूरत है।

समाधान है G30—दुनिया की 30 सबसे बड़ी अर्थव्यवस्थाओं (PPP के आधार पर) का एक नया मंच। यहाँ G7 और BRICS दोनों एक साथ हों, साथ ही अफ्रीका, लैटिन अमेरिका और एशिया के बड़े देश भी।

यह नया संगठन समान भागीदारी पर आधारित वैश्विक व्यापार नियमों का निर्माण करेगा। इसमें कोई हावी नहीं होगा, और कोई हाशिये पर नहीं रहेगा।

📘 विस्तार से पढ़ें:
G7 + BRICS = G30: एक वैश्विक सहयोग की नई परिकल्पना

मज़दूरी भी व्यापार है: अप्रवासन पर एक नई दृष्टि

जब हम व्यापार की बात करते हैं, तो सामान और सेवाओं की बात करते हैं। लेकिन एक और चीज़ है जो सीमा पार करती है: मज़दूरी। श्रमिक भी वैश्विक आपूर्ति श्रृंखला का हिस्सा हैं।

ट्रंप प्रशासन की अप्रवासन पर सख्त नीति सिर्फ अमानवीय नहीं है, बल्कि वैश्विक व्यापार को भी नुकसान पहुंचाती है। अमेरिका की कृषि, निर्माण, और सेवा अर्थव्यवस्था में आप्रवासी श्रमिकों की प्रमुख भूमिका है।

अगर इन्हें बिना सोचे-समझे उठाकर बाहर किया जाएगा, तो आर्थिक और मानवीय संकट दोनों पैदा होंगे। इसलिए वैश्विक मज़दूरी व्यापार के लिए भी नियम और गरिमा की ज़रूरत है।

इस विषय को लेकर कुछ किताबें ज़रूर पढ़ें:

अमेरिका क्या कर सकता है?

सेवाओं, टेक्नोलॉजी, ऊर्जा और वित्तीय क्षेत्रों में अमेरिका अब भी दुनिया में सबसे आगे है। जैसा कि इस ब्लॉग पोस्ट में बताया गया है —
The Top Prize: Why the U.S. Economy Still Leads the World
—अमेरिका की असली ताकत मूल्य वर्धित निर्यात है: सॉफ्टवेयर, हॉलीवुड, शिक्षा, और वित्तीय सेवाएं।

फिर भी ट्रंप प्रशासन सिर्फ माल के व्यापार घाटे की बात करता है। जबकि सच्चाई यह है कि अमेरिका का सेवा क्षेत्र में बड़ा व्यापार अधिशेष है। अगर हम सामान, सेवाएं, प्रत्यक्ष विदेशी निवेश और बौद्धिक संपदा को एक साथ जोड़ें, तो शायद अमेरिका घाटे में नहीं बल्कि लाभ में भी हो सकता है।

लेकिन इसका हल सिर्फ संख्याओं में नहीं है। एक नई वैश्विक व्यापार संरचना में है, जो सभी को साथ लेकर चले।

न्यायपूर्ण और समृद्ध व्यापार प्रणाली की ओर

अगर हम अमेरिका में विनिर्माण को फिर से जीवित करना चाहते हैं, वैश्विक मज़दूरी को गरिमा देना चाहते हैं, और एक टिकाऊ व्यापार व्यवस्था चाहते हैं, तो हमें व्यापार की मूल परिभाषा को पुनः गढ़ना होगा।

यह किताबें उस चर्चा को शुरू करने के लिए उपयोगी होंगी:

निष्कर्ष: अगली ब्रेटन वुड्स बैठक की ज़रूरत

1944 में हमने डॉलर को चुना। अब उसकी कीमत चुका रहे हैं।

आज ज़रूरत है एक नई ब्रेटन वुड्स जैसी बैठक की—जहाँ कोई एक देश नहीं, बल्कि दुनिया के सभी प्रमुख देश एक न्यायपूर्ण, समावेशी, और स्थायी वैश्विक व्यापार व्यवस्था बनाएं।

G30 वह भविष्य है। बहुपक्षीयता ही रास्ता है। मानव गरिमा के साथ श्रम व्यापार की आवश्यकता है। और अमेरिकी विनिर्माण को वापस लाने का तरीका स्मार्ट नीति और साझेदारी है, न कि पुरानी सोच और ज़बरदस्ती।

आइए, इस बातचीत की शुरुआत करें।

✍️ पढ़ें, साझा करें, और संगठित हों। जिस व्यापार प्रणाली की दुनिया को ज़रूरत है, वह खुद नहीं बनेगी।

Rethinking Trade: Why the Dollar, the WTO, and Trump’s Policies Broke U.S. Manufacturing—and How a G30 Can Rebuild It https://t.co/Eh1x5kOxQg
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 9, 2025

Trump’s Trade War https://t.co/jujJ9md1G4
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 9, 2025

5/ Tariffs did not fix the trade deficit.
They raised prices, disrupted supply chains, and sowed mistrust—without fundamentally reshoring jobs.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 9, 2025

Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy https://t.co/8aGH1Vh2WL
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 9, 2025

Trump’s Trade War https://t.co/jujJ9md1G4
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 9, 2025

12/ Bottom line:
🔁 We need a new Bretton Woods.
🌐 One that centers cooperation over coercion.
🧑‍🏭 Where labor is treated with dignity.
🏭 Where U.S. manufacturing rises again—not by fear, but by fairness.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 9, 2025

Rethinking Trade: Why the Dollar, the WTO, and Trump’s Policies Broke U.S. Manufacturing—and How a G30 Can Rebuild It https://t.co/Eh1x5kOxQg
Thoughts? Comments?
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 9, 2025

1/ अमेरिकी विनिर्माण को किसने सबसे ज़्यादा नुकसान पहुँचाया?
सिर्फ चीन नहीं। सिर्फ वैश्वीकरण नहीं।
👉 असली वजह है डॉलर की विशेष वैश्विक स्थिति, जिसके खिलाफ कीन्स ने 1944 में चेतावनी दी थी।
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 9, 2025

2/ ब्रेटन वुड्स में कीन्स ने बैंकॉर नामक एक वैश्विक मुद्रा का सुझाव दिया था।
अमेरिका ने डॉलर को थोप दिया।
नतीजा? अमेरिका को दुनिया को डॉलर देने के लिए लगातार व्यापार घाटा झेलना पड़ा।
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 9, 2025

Trump’s Trade War https://t.co/jujJ9md1G4
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 9, 2025

6/ अमेरिका की असली ताकत कहाँ है?
👉 सेवाएं, बौद्धिक संपदा, फाइनेंस, टेक्नोलॉजी, शिक्षा
इसलिए अमेरिका को सामान में घाटा लेकिन सेवाओं में बड़ा अधिशेष है।
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 9, 2025

8/ अब समय है G7 और BRICS को पीछे छोड़ने का।
समाधान है G30: PPP के हिसाब से 30 सबसे बड़ी अर्थव्यवस्थाओं का साझा मंच।
📘 पढ़ें: https://t.co/K9Ovrd24nq
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 9, 2025

Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy https://t.co/8aGH1Vh2WL
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 9, 2025

Trump’s Trade War https://t.co/jujJ9md1G4
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 9, 2025

12/ निष्कर्ष:
🔁 हमें चाहिए नई ब्रेटन वुड्स बैठक
🌐 जहाँ सहयोग हो, दमन नहीं
🧑‍🏭 जहाँ श्रमिकों को गरिमा मिले
🏭 जहाँ अमेरिका का विनिर्माण न्याय और नीति से दोबारा खड़ा हो
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 9, 2025

Monday, July 07, 2025

7: Trump

Trump Issues Threat to Russia, China, Other BRICS Countries: 'There Will Be No Exceptions' BRICS is short for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, though the group now also includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. ....... "The statement said that unilateral tariffs reduced global trade, disrupted supply chains and introduced uncertainty into international commerce" ....... As of July 7, only two preliminary deals had been announced -- one with Britain, the other with Vietnam. ........ After BRICS began mulling the idea of replacing the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, he threatened to impose a 100 percent tariff on them. ......... A month before he made this threat, BRICS touted a report prepared by Russia that had called for the dollar's role in global finance to be "reassessed." ....... BRICS's latest statement issued Sunday also condemned America's recent military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, calling them "a violation of international law." ........ "We condemn the military strikes against the Islamic Republic of Iran since June 13, 2025, which constitute a violation of international law and the Charter of the United Nations, and express grave concern over the subsequent escalation of the security situation in the Middle East," the statement read...... Surprisingly, two top BRICS leaders skipped Sunday's summit, including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi............ Trump remains insistent that a favorable trade deal with the United States is still the best option for any country -- BRICS or not -- to avoid crippling tariff rates.

Donald J. Trump Truth Social 07.06.25 10:24 PM EST

Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
— Commentary Donald J. Trump Posts From Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) July 7, 2025

While Joe Biden sad idly by while nations fundamentally antagonistic to America strengthened and expanded BRICS to weaken and destabilize the US Dollar, before even taking office President Trump lays down the gauntlet, promises a 100% tariff on any nation forming or backing a… pic.twitter.com/UNNCesf3Wi
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) November 30, 2024

Masoud Pezeshkian, president of Iran.

(0:00) How Would Iranian President Pezeshkian Like to See This Conflict End?
(0:44) Is Iran Willing to Give Up Their Nuclear Program in Exchange for Peace?
(5:19) Was the International Atomic Energy Agency Spying on Iran and Giving… pic.twitter.com/lMPoFa5ChX
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) July 7, 2025

Trump Threatens Extra Tariffs on BRICS-Aligned Countries President Trump said nations that support the group’s “Anti-American policies” would face an additional 10 percent tariff. He did not elaborate. ......... The statement said that unilateral tariffs reduced global trade, disrupted supply chains and introduced uncertainty into international commerce. And it condemned military strikes on Iran last month, calling them “a violation of international law.” The United States joined Israel in attacking Iran in what both countries called a campaign aimed at Tehran’s nuclear facilities. ........ Besides the original members, it now includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. ....... In June, he warned that if the countries replaced the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, he would impose a 100 percent tariff. He had first made the threat after winning election last November. The month before that, a report prepared by Russia for a BRICS summit had called for the dollar’s central role in global finance to be “reassessed.”

Trump’s tariffs haven’t blown up the global economy. It’s worse than that If you happen to be the prime minister or president of a mid-ranking trading nation, it is the kind of letter you definitely don’t want to receive: a sternly-worded and eccentrically-capitalised missive from the White House, ticking you off for all your trade misdemeanours, and threatening a steep tariff on all your exports into the United States should you fail to reach terms. ......... The leaders of Japan, South Korea, South Africa, and a handful of others were not exactly told to write out a hundred times “I must not sell so many automobiles/semiconductors/bright pink Barbie accessories (delete as appropriate) to Americans”. But that was the general gist of the letters President Trump has now sent out to some of the US’s main trading partners. .......... Japan and South Korea were the first in line for their punishment. President Trump said he intends to impose a 25 per cent tariff on both of them, together with stiff warnings that it would be increased if they tried to retaliate in any significant way. South Africa was whacked with 30 per cent. Other nations will be keeping an anxious eye on Trump’s Truth Social account to see what it is in store for them. ........... The tariffs so far have not crashed the global trading system, plunged the US into a depression, or emptied the shelves at Target and Wal-Mart. Wall Street is hitting record highs, and America is creating jobs again........... they create uncertainty. The stock market has come to bank on the TACO trade. It stood for Trump Always Chickens Out. The assumption is that he would never follow through with the tariffs. It now looks as if that may need to be switched to the TOD – for Trump Occasionally Delivers – trade. Yes, Trump’s letters may merely be his latest attempt to browbeat other countries into agreeing new trading deals. But the constant threat of random tariffs hangs over global corporations, slowing down decisions, deterring investment, and making it harder to commit to plans. It is all bad for growth. ......... The latest round of levies won’t cause a depression. But they are still a slow motion car crash – if not a full blown pile up on the freeway.

Voices: Elon Musk’s latest Trump spat could end the Maga saga for good
California lawmaker on increase in ICE raids: 'These are scare tactics'
Xi Jinping may be losing control of China’s military labelling General He’s treatment “the most dramatic act of [Xi’s] military anti-corruption campaign and first firing of a general in that role in six decades”. ....... Others have suggested that Xi has become a Stalin-like paranoid who sees enemies everywhere and so churns the ranks of senior officers. ........... “Sometimes the simplest explanations are the most credible. The simplest explanation is that Xi’s enemies – not Xi himself – removed Xi’s loyalists. .......... beginning July 9 of last year PLA Daily, the Chinese military’s main propaganda organ, ran a series of articles praising “collective leadership,” a clear criticism of Xi’s demand for complete obedience. ........ These articles – apparently written by those aligned with the number one-ranked uniformed officer, Central Military Commission Vice Chairman General Zhang Youxia – are unlikely to have appeared if Xi were in complete control of the military. ....... There is also evidence that Xi has lost influence among civilians. His skipping of the just-completed Brics summit in Rio de Janeiro – the first such gathering he has missed – is a clear signal that he might no longer be in control. Perhaps he is no longer permitted to travel outside China. Some point to the Politburo’s establishment of new coordination “regulations,” announced by Xi himself on June 30, as marking a formal limitation on his power. .......... A weak Xi and a Communist Party in turmoil are dangerous, and probably far more dangerous than a strong leader and a stable ruling group.

Elon Musk Is Running Out of Road in China For a while, Tesla was the hottest car on Chinese roads, and Musk was the toast of Beijing. Government officials showered the company with incentives, part of a concerted strategy to turbocharge the Chinese EV industry by injecting Tesla know-how into the country and spurring competition. Tesla’s sales took off. ......... Chinese consumers say Teslas increasingly feel tired and out of touch with local tastes. Top China-designed EVs nowadays come with features that aren’t normally found in Teslas, such as multiple big screens to watch films and play games, refrigerators to keep drinks cold and in-car cameras for selfies. BYD, which makes both EVs and batteries; and battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology, or CATL, recently said they each had developed new technologies that allow users to charge cars in just five minutes. ...... Tesla’s China staff have voiced concerns to headquarters about the company’s aging products, but their warnings often drew sluggish responses, China-based employees said. The frustrations have built as Chinese salespeople feel more pressure to hit targets, without the sexiest cars to sell. ........ the public breakup between Musk and Trump is limiting Musk’s value to Beijing. In January, Chinese Vice President Han Zheng met Musk in Washington and told Musk that Beijing hoped he could play a “constructive role” in U.S.-China relations ............ And because of the Musk-Trump feud, Beijing no longer views the Tesla chief executive as a geopolitical asset and will shy away from publicly courting him ......... American companies have a long history of thriving temporarily in China before falling behind, once local competitors scale up and government officials tilt the playing field in favor of domestic champions. ........ Apple was China’s No. 1 smartphone maker in 2023, but now ranks third behind Huawei and another Chinese brand, which have popular features at lower prices. Apple’s slide has been compounded by Chinese restrictions on the use of its devices by government officials and stimulus policies that favor Chinese domestic manufacturers. ....... Musk likely knows there is a shelf life to many global companies operating in China, and is looking at investments in places such as India in case China becomes more difficult. ........... China started limiting use of Tesla cars by government and military staff in 2021, citing concerns that data the cars gather could lead to national-security leaks, though some areas have eased the restrictions after Tesla built a local data center to address the concerns. ........

“Teslas are almost like iPhones now. They’re getting uninspired and stale, and don’t have revolutionary features anymore.”

........... As a Plan B, Tesla considered expanding its FSD training inside China. To do so, however, its China operations need access to the most advanced semiconductors, which have been blocked by U.S. export controls. After nearly nine months of back-and-forth, talks hit a dead end. .......... Tesla’s struggles in China today contrast with the prepandemic years, when Chinese leaders appeared willing to do anything to court Musk. Their hope was that Tesla’s expansion in China would propel underachieving local automakers and help build out the country’s EV market. Chinese officials likened it to lobbing a predatory catfish into a pond full of sluggish fish. ...........
“He made the same mistake that every foreign automaker made—to underestimate China’s ability to out-innovate you.” ...... A big risk for Musk now is that the same pattern will play out in other businesses Tesla is banking on for future growth.
........ Now, China has its own batch of robotic startups, such as Unitree and Agibot, gearing up to compete with American companies. As Chinese suppliers work with Tesla, it could speed up that process. ........ “Once you secure contracts with Tesla, domestic robotics companies will be much more willing to collaborate with you,” said Chen Feng, a marketing manager at an Optimus supplier. “Tesla can play catfish again.” ........ During a recent call with analysts, Musk said he believed his Optimus was No. 1 in the sector. But he worried China would eventually dominate the field.

Trump’s response to flooding in Texas reflects glaring inequality

7: BRICS

Iran issues nuclear weapons update after US bombing Iran's nuclear facilities were "severely damaged" in military strikes launched by the United States last month, the country's president has said....... He added that Iran was ready to resume talks on verifying its nuclear program after it suspended its co-operation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) following the Israeli and U.S. strikes.

Here come higher prices, especially on electronics https://t.co/1ei5YubmkL
— The Tennessee Holler (@TheTNHoller) July 7, 2025

India’s first #Gaganyatri, #ShubhanshuShukla, currently aboard the #InternationalSpaceStation as part of the #Axiom4Mission, spoke to #ISRO Chairman Dr. V. Narayanan.

Shukla thanked the Indian space agency for enabling his safe and successful journey to space.

Know more 🔗… pic.twitter.com/hPFISTdMhi
— The Times Of India (@timesofindia) July 7, 2025

More than three months after the Department of Education initiated sweeping layoffs, most workers remain on the payroll but unable to work, according to Boston-based employees and the union that represents most of them. https://t.co/zgeeHaHfWa
— The Boston Globe (@BostonGlobe) July 7, 2025

Watch the full film that the BBC refused to air, now acquired by Zeteo, and documenting the systematic destruction fo Gaza's healthcare, and the killing and torture of Gaza's doctors, here:https://t.co/6IHE69YAwK
— Mehdi Hasan (@mehdirhasan) July 7, 2025

this looks like claymation but it’s all AI.

The Galactic Gut by Loading… tells a hilarious, sarcastic story about alien tech stupidity but also shows what AI animation can really do.

Squishy aliens, wild expressions, silky motion.... Kling AI even used rotational video tricks… pic.twitter.com/eXyApCWyhI
— Shruti (@heyshrutimishra) July 7, 2025

Hey, MAGA: Consider that it may be time to stop listening to clowns like these. pic.twitter.com/7tOH64Pj9d
— Heath Mayo (@HeathMayo) July 7, 2025

Multimeter blast injures two battery workers at Vyasarpadi MTC electric bus depot in Chennaihttps://t.co/zwX2AWXYGG
— TOIChennai (@TOIChennai) July 7, 2025

Confidence isn’t a mindset you find, it’s a skill you build. You don’t think your way into confidence. You act your way into it. By doing what you say you're going to do. By keeping your promises to yourself. By showing up. Day after day. Week after week. Year after year.
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) July 7, 2025

*WHITE HOUSE: WILL SIGN EXECUTIVE ORDER DELAYING JULY DEADLINE OF TARIFFS TO AUGUST 1

🌮🌮🌮
— Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) July 7, 2025

In Russia almost 2000 flights have now been disrupted due to drone activity. The situation is particularly bad at airports in and around the Moscow region. https://t.co/sT606vrXfg pic.twitter.com/EFSFJXuEz6
— raging545 (@raging545) July 7, 2025

With the massive disruption of flights due to drones the civil aviation in Russia is reportedly collapsing. https://t.co/WG8A2YajMO pic.twitter.com/9drdDFIM6o
— raging545 (@raging545) July 7, 2025

Misinformation lends itself to social contagion – here’s how to recognize and combat it https://t.co/nA73m15YC1
— The Conversation U.S. (@ConversationUS) July 7, 2025