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Wednesday, June 25, 2025

25: Iran

Business optimism collapses under Trump Business leaders' confidence in the U.S. economy has halved since the beginning of the year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., as companies grapple with the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs and broader geopolitical uncertainties........ optimism for the economy fell to 32 percent in June from 65 percent in January. Additionally, 25 percent of respondents said they expect a recession to occur at some point this year, up from only 8 percent in January. ....... Concerns over the trajectory of the U.S. economy have been fueled largely by Trump's trade agenda, which has led to significant stock market volatility and heightened fears of rising costs for both businesses and consumers. ....... a re-escalation would represent "another adverse supply shock to the economy." ......... the challenges highlighted by business leaders included uncertain economic conditions (55 percent), tariffs (41 percent), and revenue and sales growth (41 percent). ....... recent report on CEO confidence, which saw a 26-point decline in the second quarter to 34. This fell further below the 50-point threshold, indicating more negative responses than positive, and reached the lowest level since the end of 2022. ......... The New York-based think tank noted that

this was the steepest quarterly decline in the survey's 48-year history. CEOs cited tariffs and geopolitical instability as the main sources of risk for their industries.

.......... "Rising Middle East tensions represent another adverse supply shock to the economy. While for now the worst of scenarios seems to have been averted for now, any change in supply of oil into markets would have ramifications domestically." ........ "when consumers are uncertain of the economy they stop buying." ...... Powell warned of "very high uncertainty" due to the impact of tariffs, adding: "Everyone that I know is forecasting a meaningful increase in inflation in coming months from tariffs."

'Prelude to martial law': Experts detail Trump’s 'militarization of politics'
China Building a ‘Mega-Sized’ Consumer Economy, Premier Says the nation would “share indigenous technologies and innovative scenarios with countries around the world.”

Fed Chair Powell Says ‘We Would Have Continued Cutting’ Interest Rates If Trump’s Tariffs Didn’t Spark Inflation Fears
FBI Abandons Miller’s Migrant Round-Up in Humiliating Blow the majority of FBI agents on immigration duty are now returning to traditional roles to thwart possible threats from Iran and its proxies. ......... The pivot back to counterterrorism will place FBI agents in a more traditional role. ........ 2,000 agents from the FBI, DEA, and the Marshals Service were ordered to embed with ICE to boost arrest numbers. Many of those agents are now being pulled back to their day jobs........ the FBI’s recall of a “couple thousand agents” is a direct result of the U.S. bombing of Iran, which has raised fears of retaliation stateside. .......... Iran trolled Trump later in the day and declared that its nuclear program, which Trump said was “obliterated” by U.S. bombers, will “resume without interruption.” ........... The agency has pivoted from prioritizing undocumented immigrants accused of crimes to targeting anyone in the country without documentation, including lowly-paid farmworkers in California, day workers at Home Depot locations, and even high school student asylum seekers.

Why markets are going to have to worry about tariffs again soon
Trump’s Return-to-Office Push Is a Mistake
No Lidar, No Radar, No Lead—Tesla’s Robotaxi Strategy Faces Heavy Doubts Tesla's recent launch of its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, has fallen short of industry expectations. According to TechRadar on Monday, citing The Verge, the service is currently limited to very important person (VIP) invitees and still requires safety personnel on board for emergency situations........ Meanwhile, rival Waymo has already deployed over 1,500 autonomous vehicles across major U.S. cities and plans to add 2,000 more by 2026. Tesla's approach relies solely on its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system without radar or lidar, while Waymo has prioritized safety by incorporating a variety of sensors. ......... Industry experts predict that Tesla will need at least two more years to legally deploy thousands of vehicles and eliminate the need for human drivers in the passenger seat. At the same time, Chinese companies such as Baidu, WeRide, and Pony.ai are rapidly expanding their presence in the market........ Analysts point out that Tesla must overcome significant technical and regulatory hurdles to secure a leading position in the robotaxi market.

Trump Rage-Posts at CNN Leak of Embarrassing Iran Raid Flop Trump’s much-touted attacks on three Iranian nuclear enrichment sites over the weekend did not kill the country’s nuclear program. At worst, they only set the program back by a few months, which counters the president’s repeated claims of “complete and total obliteration.” ........... “FAKE NEWS CNN, TOGETHER WITH THE FAILING NEW YORK TIMES, HAVE TEAMED UP IN AN ATTEMPT TO DEMEAN ONE OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL MILITARY STRIKES IN HISTORY,” he wrote.......... “THE NUCLEAR SITES IN IRAN ARE COMPLETELY DESTROYED! BOTH THE TIMES AND CNN ARE GETTING SLAMMED BY THE PUBLIC!”

Republic Reforged: Democracy and American Dynamism in a New Era of Conflict

AOC Fires Back After Brutal Trump Attack: ‘It Only Took You 5 Months to Break Almost Every Promise You Made’

Devastating Poll Shows Trump What Americans Think of His Bombings
'That’s a bizarre one': Expert baffled by Trump's new Middle East plan The move reflects Trump's appetite to create a lasting impression in the Middle East. His first administration negotiated the Abraham Accords to establish diplomatic ties between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan........

Trump says Iran nuclear program 'gone for years,' rejects early Pentagon analysis President Donald Trump again claimed "total obliteration" of Iran's nuclear program during the NATO summit in the Netherlands on Wednesday, dismissing an early Pentagon report suggesting the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Tehran's facilities may have only set its program back by a matter of months........

the strikes did limited damage and that Iran was able to relocate highly enriched uranium stocks before the strikes occurred.

....... "I believe they didn't have a chance to get anything out, because we acted fast," Trump said. "If it would have taken two weeks, maybe. But it's very hard to remove that kind of material, very hard and very dangerous. Plus, they knew we were coming, and if they know we're coming, they're not going to be down there." ........ "I'm not going to have to worry about that," he said. "It's gone for years, years, very tough to rebuild, because the whole thing is collapsed. In other words, inside, it's all collapsed. Nobody can get in to see it, because it's collapsed." ....... "Given the 30,000 lbs of explosives and capability of those munitions, it was devastation underneath Fordo," Hegseth said. ........ "But all this leaker stuff, these leakers are professional stabbers," he said. "They go out and they read this stuff, and then they tell you what it says against the law, but they characterize it for you in a way that's absolutely false." ........ the recent round of fighting could have been avoided if Trump had not withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal in his first term. ....... Tehran may "be convinced their race to get a nuclear weapon is even more important -- given North Korea's example -- and they will do everything possible to get there as quickly as possible." ........ "They're not going to be fighting each other," he added of Israel and Iran. "They've had it. They've had a big fight, like two kids in a schoolyard. You know, they fight like hell. You can't stop them. Let them fight for about two, three minutes. Then it's easier to stop them." ........... Trump said the U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities on Saturday proved decisive. "That hit ended the war," he said, likening the U.S. atomic bomb attacks on Japan at the end of World War II. ........ "I don't want to use an example of Hiroshima, I don't want to use an example of Nagasaki, but that was essentially the same thing that ended that war," Trump said. "If we didn't take that out, they would have been, they'd be fighting right now," he continued. ........ "I think we'll end up having somewhat of a relationship with Iran," he said. "I've had a relationship over the last four days. They agreed to the cease fire, and it was a very equal agreement. They both said, that's enough. They both said it."

First Thing: Mamdani wins NYC mayoral primary after Cuomo concedes With 93% of votes counted in the primary’s first round, the progressive – who is now favored to become the city’s first Muslim mayor – had 43.5% of the vote and Cuomo 36.4%. As he conceded, Cuomo said Mamdani had run a “really smart and good and impactful campaign”. ....... Mamdani’s victory – after he ran on a cost-of-living platform that included rent freezes – comes amid deep fissures within his party

Maddow Blog | Trump’s response to intelligence assessment on Iran strikes takes an incoherent turn
The U.S. Labor Force Isn't Ready for a Manufacturing Boom | Opinion The sector's significant tech skills gap ..... Manufacturing is a game of effectively managing inputs—raw materials, energy, real estate, labor, and more—to maximize outputs in the form of manufactured goods. Much of today's conversation focuses on raw materials and the geopolitical wisdom of reshaping supply chains, but overlooks the critical component of labor. .........

Labor is the primary reason manufacturers left the U.S., and it's also a big barrier to their return.

....... U.S. factories of the future will have to be much smarter if manufacturers hope to produce goods at prices palatable to American consumers and businesses. Domestic factories are already embracing automation and digitization. Caterpillar has invested significantly in smart sensors for real-time machine monitoring, Ford simulates assembly lines to detect bottlenecks before implementing real-world updates, and GE used autonomous mobile robots to increase throughput in its medical equipment repair center. ......... A 2024 Deloitte study found that by 2033, the manufacturing sector may need 3.8 million new workers, and 1.9 million of those jobs could go unfilled due to the labor gap. As in other industries, a tech skills gap is creating shortages in roles that require technical expertise. The same research revealed that the skills with the fastest-growing demand—simulation and simulation software, enterprise information management, and cloud computing—are all tech-related. .......... Tariffs without talent cannot make for a manufacturing boom in the U.S.

How Israel failed in Iran What did Israel accomplish in Iran after 11 days of incessant bombing? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed in his statement acknowledging the ceasefire that the Israeli goals have been achieved. Such an assertion seems problematic, to say the least. ........ At the start of the short-lived war, he declared two goals: “decapitating the nuclear programme” and “regime change”. ........ It seems that Iran transported fissionable material out of the Fordow facility attacked by the United States. This stockpile is the most important part of the nuclear programme, so “decapitation” seems to have failed. ......... Has Israel generated “regime change” in Iran? The brief answer is that it has very much achieved the opposite. Israel attempted to trigger an uprising against the regime by killing military leaders of Iran’s various security structures. This strategy is based on the firm Israeli belief that the best way to destabilise an enemy is through assassinations of senior leaders. This has never worked. The only possible exception was the effect Hassan Nasrallah’s death had on Hezbollah in Lebanon, but that had a great deal to do with internal Lebanese political dynamics. In all other cases, Israeli assassinations have failed to create any major political change. ......... In the case of Iran, the assassinations rallied the people around the government. Israel assassinated the senior commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), perhaps the most powerful element in current Iranian politics, but also one of the most hated by the Iranian public. Regardless, many Iranians who consider themselves staunch opponents of the Islamic Republic and especially of the IRGC found themselves supporting it. Iranians saw Iran in its entirety under attack and not just “the regime”. ........ Israel’s attempts to bomb “regime symbols” only made the situation worse. It attempted to spin its air strikes on Evin Prison, infamous for the torture of political prisoners, as a contribution to the struggle of the Iranian people against the repression of the Islamic Republic. But Israel’s bombs effectively worsened the situation of the prisoners, as the authorities moved many of them to unknown locations. .......... no one adopted Israel’s stringent list of demands, which included that Iran should not be able to enrich uranium at all...... The world returned to the formula of “no nuclear weapon”, with which Iran had already announced it was willing to comply. ......... Israel was running low on interceptor missiles without hopes of immediate replenishment. The Israeli economy was quickly grinding to a halt. This was another triumph for Iran. ........ the Islamic Republic did not crumble, even when facing a massive Israeli force. ........ Iran successfully de-escalated by warning in advance about its “retaliation” for the US strike on its military base in Qatar. ....... Iran was powerful enough to convince Trump to warn Israel not to attack after the ceasefire appeared to have been violated. Iran emerged as it prefers to emerge – still standing, and with potential for the future.

Donald Trump's approval rating falls to lowest point

Musk’s exit from politics fails to stop Tesla’s decline in Europe
Trump warns Iran-Israel war "could maybe start again soon" The president attributed the end of the conflict to U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure........ Trump downplayed a leaked U.S. intelligence report suggesting limited damage from the strikes, calling such coverage "fake news." .......... He added that any agreement would seek the same commitments as previous negotiations, but emphasized that the nuclear threat was already "blown up to kingdom come." ...... Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a deal would depend on Iran's willingness to engage directly with the U.S., not through intermediaries.

On a crisp spring morning, the head of the world’s most advanced automotive manufacturer entered the West Wing. An immigrant, the CEO was still amazed that someone born half a world away could meet one-on-one with the President of the United States to discuss a matter of national importance: reforming the federal government, particularly its procurement process. The President — consumed with authoritarian threats abroad and judicial resistance to his reforms at home — had brought him and other business leaders like him into government service to fix broken systems and chart a better course. The political backlash was immediate, with many deriding the executives as oligarchs cloaked in patriotism. .......... The year was not 2025. It was 1940. The CEO was the Danish-born American William “Big Bill” Knudsen, the head of General Motors, and his compatriots were senior executives from America’s industrial giants. Known as “dollar-a-year men” for their nominal salaries, these figures entered government at President Franklin Roosevelt’s request. For all their failures and failings, they played a pivotal role in preparing the nation for war and ensuring that America was the dominant power for the remainder of the century.

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