Thursday, February 05, 2009

Stimulus: Size Matters



(photo courtesy a Facebook friend of mine, no, she is not American)
The Obama Message Shift Time Gone is the warm and fuzzy talk about how everything is on track and Washington can get along at bipartisan White House cocktail parties. In is the tough talk about how members of Congress--particularly Republicans--have to stop bickering and threatening delay, and get something done. .............. In the last few days, we've seen proposals arise from some in Congress that you may not have read, but you'd be very familiar with, because you've been hearing them for the last 10 years, maybe longer. They're rooted in the idea that tax cuts alone can solve all our problems, that government doesn't have a role to play, that half- measures and tinkering are somehow enough, that we can afford to ignore our most fundamental economic challenges: the crushing cost of health care, the inadequate state of so many of our schools, our dangerous dependence on foreign oil. ............... Those ideas have been tested, and they have failed. They've taken us from surpluses to an annual deficit of over $1 trillion. And they've brought our economy to a halt. And that's precisely what the election we just had was all about. The American people have rendered their judgment, and now's the time to move forward, not back. Now's the time for action.
The idea behind deficit spending to get an economy out of a recession goes back to Keynes and FDR, it is another thing that it is said when the two met they did not much like each other, kind of like Newt Gingrich and Bill Gates, when they met, they did not much like each other, there was no talk.

Before Keynes the orthodoxy was only someone stupid would spend money they don't have. Going into debt was not what wise people did.

The American economy really only turned around after the monstrously massive deficit spending that World War II forced the country into. Otherwise the recession of the 1930s was a deep ditch. We don't call it a recession, it was a depression. It was a major flunk.

The American economy today does not have a 30% unemployment rate, so this is not a depression, not yet. But then a recession mishandled is a depression. Don't count it out yet. This is the financial SARS virus that America has already exported all over the world. The entire global economy is sneezing.

If mishandled, this downturn could hit a tipping point, and then there would be no turning point. It would go downhill from there. At that point a trillion dollar jolt is going to feel like something on the cheap.

What the American economy has is a cardiac arrest. And it needs a jolt. That is why size matters. Reducing the size of the stimulus is exactly the bad idea. And you can't do it in steps. A jolt has to be one big step. Spending a trillion $100 billion a year over 10 years would be too lukewarm. It would not be a jolt, and hence not a stimulus.

The stimulus has to be announced with a bang, not a whimper. It has to be implemented with a bang. It has to be followed through with a bang.

There is an urgent need for a new global financial architecture. That is the number one lesson. But it will be much easier to shape that new architecture if the US economy is not in the bad shape it is in right now, if the world economy is feeling some upswing.

This is not a recession that comes once every 10 years or so. This is something that happens once or twice a century, once every 70 years or so. This is big. This asks for a big dose of medicine.

This is the time to think big, and engage in massive spending programs, massive infrastructure programs.


Obama Bank Pay Ceiling Would Make Many CEOs Stoop CNNMoney.com
Obama limits bailed-out bank CEO pay MarketWatch
Obama Caps Exec Pay For Bailout Firms U.S. News & World Report
Obama Turns Up Heat, Slams GOP Ideas
Wall Street Journal
Obama: Economy faces catastrophe without stimulus Reuters Obama spoke as the Democratic-led Senate abruptly halted debate on a $920 billion version of the plan on Thursday night. ..... his critics were offering "tired arguments" for economic solutions that emphasized tax cuts for well-off families. ...... don't come to the table with the same tired arguments and worn ideas that helped to create this crisis ...... "If we do not move swiftly to sign the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act into law, an economy that is already in crisis will be faced with catastrophe," Obama said. ..... "We are not going to get relief by turning back to the very same policies that for the last eight years doubled the national debt and threw our economy into a tailspin," he said.
President Obama Enters the Chaos Zone
FOXNews
With Daschle out, Obama should make Romney the healthcare-reform czar Christian Science Monitor
AP Says It Owns Image Used in Obama Poster
New York Times, United States
Copyright battle over Obama image BBC News
Associated Press wants money from Obama artist Christian Science Monitor
Afghanistan Appeal May Temper European Allies' Ardor for Obama Washington Post, United States
Obama Sets More Modest Goals For Afghanistan NPR
'Finish the job' in Afghanistan? Where do we begin? Los Angeles Times
Op-Ed Contributor Afghan Supplies, Russian Demands New York Times
Obama upholds Bush faith policy
Los Angeles Times, CA
Obama creates faith-based office with wide mission The Associated Press
Obama is right to object to ‘Buy American’ provisions Kansas City Star, MO
McCain looks to nix ‘buy American’ from Obama stimulus Bizjournals.com
Reject 'Buy American' clause or risk a trade war Salt Lake Tribune
Obama Bows to EU Demands on Stimulus The New American
Obama CIA pick may back 'limited' abuse prosecution Reuters
Obama's pick for CIA chief says he wants answers The Associated Press
Panetta says he would end harsh CIA interrogation tactics San Jose Mercury News
Cold warrior Henry Kissinger woos Russia for Barack Obama Telegraph.co.uk, United Kingdom
Obama admin. seeks treaty to cut US, Russia nukes The Associated Press
Russia, US pledge closer cooperation under Obama MSNBC
Obama’s First Ride on Marine One New York Times, United States
Obama says White House and Congress 'in range' The Associated Press
Obama Goes Airborne Today For First Time As President CBS News
Obama takes first ride on 'spiffy' Air Force One AFP


Howard Dean For Health And Human Services Secretary



Howard Dean Was Grassroots 1.0, Barack Is Grassroots 2.0
  1. President Clinton as president described then Governor Dean as the best Governor in the nation when it came to health care.
  2. Howard Dean is a doctor. We need a doctor in the house.
  3. A doctor or two. His wife is also a doctor.
  4. Barack was a Deaniac in 2004, so was I. I came to Barack by way of Dean.
  5. Howard Dean authored the 50 state strategy. It delivered in 2006, it delivered in 2008. He was great as DNC Chair. If he had won the primary in 2004, he would have won the general.
  6. Howard Dean was the original anti-war candidate.



Howard Dean Should Have Been Obama’s Pick All Along Truthdig, United States Within a week of Obama’s winning the presidential election, Dean’s name began to circulate as a top contender for the job. Dean is a physician, a former family practitioner in fact, and during his 11-year tenure as governor of Vermont, health care and other welfare-related reforms were a priority. ........ Dean became imprinted on the national consciousness when he surged to the head of the pack during his run for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination by playing the angry anti-war candidate. His novel use of the Internet to raise funds and organize supporters produced a meteoric rise in the polls. ........ I lived in Vermont for nearly all of Dean’s 11 years as governor. The 2004 presidential contender who whipped crowds of young voters into frenzies with his bracing oratory was someone we had not seen before. ....... Though Dean can be famously argumentative, he is not known as a politician who holds grudges. As governor, he’d fight like mad for an initiative he believed in but on the next issue of importance could work with those who had just opposed him. ...... He served much longer as chief executive of a state with a fixed budget and very real health and human services responsibilities, and his track record in that capacity should count for much. ........ “When Dean left office in early 2003, most states were in dire financial shape, their revenues hammered by the collapse of the dot-com economy. Vermont, by contrast, had a comfortable surplus, thanks largely to Dean.” ......... “The only real exception to rigid budget discipline was health care. … This did stretch the budget some, but those costs were offset somewhat by increased tobacco taxes.” ....... Dean “for the first time pushed governmental health care coverage out beyond the welfare population to working people who did not qualify for Medicaid.” ......... “Government observers in Vermont usually cite two highlights among Dean’s accomplishments in office: tight budget management of the state’s economy, and Success by Six, an effort to link early education programs to social services. … Dean, perhaps because of his medical training, demanded measured results.” ........ “One of my most persistent activities during the early ’90s,” recalled Glenn Gershaneck, who was Dean’s press secretary before eventually heading the state Transportation Agency, “was trying to fend off the more liberal wing of the Democratic Party. The will to spend money always exceeded the resources available, and the push to spend came mostly from the left.” ....... Dean’s strained relationship with Obama’s White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, with whom he famously clashed over strategy during the 2006 midterm election—Emanuel wanted DNC money to be targeted where it could help Democratic congressional candidates win immediately while Dean was intent on a long-range plan to build party infrastructures in all 50 states ....... But just as presidential candidate Dean paved the way for now-President Obama’s use of the Internet as a campaign tool, it was DNC Chairman Dean whose 50-state strategy helped candidate Obama keep John McCain on the defensive in traditional red states. ....... Dean was a true Washington outsider who took over a broken political machine and achieved astonishing results. ....... Dean’s proven strengths—his medical training and his ability to work within budgets, to name just two. And no one could bring more passion to the job ...... imagine the damage that could result from an effort led by a career politician with no understanding of the dynamics at play in our health care system, let alone the human organism ...... After so many years of fruitless rhetoric by politicians, why not let a medical doctor with proven success as a political operative and a record for plain talk and common sense have a chance? ....... As governor, he made advances in the area of health and welfare by gaining support for initiatives such as health insurance for children and prenatal care and other preventive wellness measures that cost relatively little and offered long-term savings and sustainability.
Why not Howard Dean for Sec. of Health and Human Services? Capitol Hill Blue
Howard Dean for HHS or Health Czar The Young Turks
Chris Matthews: Howard Dean should replace Daschle Raw Story
Dean For HHS Gains Momentum
Atlantic Online
My Suggestion to Obama: Drop Daschle--Choose Howard Dean Gather.com, MA
Dump Daschle - Howard Dean for Health and Human Services
Beliefnet.com, NY


Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Global Finance, Global Terrorism, Global Warming


The key term is global. America can't do it alone. That admission has to be the starting point for the building of a new architecture for the trillions in global finances that move around like data on the internet. The internet is global.

America is lucky to have Barack Obama for president. That is a global person. He is a Hawaii guy. He was 11 when he first got to see the continental US, and he saw it on a Greyhound bus. He was raised by a white mother, white grandparents. I have always thought of him as white.

The current crisis is a lesson in humility for America. Yes, we can. That is a call for humility. And a touch of boldness. Humility itself is a bold act.

The problem with American banking is not that the banks have not had enough money. That is why the bailout can not be the number one thing you do, the stimulus package can not be the number one thing you do.

The problem was the banks had too much outside money and did not know what to do with it, so they gave it out like it was nobody's business. It was not a case of demand and supply. Money did not go where the demand was the greatest. The demand is the greatest in the Global South, the demand is with poor women who need just a little bit of capital to start small businesses. But the warped global financial architecture sent the global money to inflate the prices on American houses. Instead.

The house is on fire. America and the world can not afford a meltdown of the American financial infrastructure. The bailout is water. The stimulus package is water. Putting out the fire is important. But the real task is going to be to build a new house, a new tower. The Twin Towers will be gone when the dust settles.

It is going to be a major challenge to draw the outlines of a new financial architecture. How do you institutionalize transparency, and accountability, and stay as close as possible to the fundamental market ethos? As in how do you not overreact and end up restraining the market forces? On the other hand, how do you make sure you don't sit back and hope things will take care of themselves? There is major work that needs to be done.

People, voters did not realize when he first started saying it, but Barack's bringing people together dictum is what is going to do the trick. You bring world leaders together. You bring together the titans of global finance. You bring together disagreeing politicians. You bring along the powerless and the neglected to the table, you bring them together with those who might always have excluded them, knowingly and unknowingly.

The stimulus package jacks up spending on education. That probably is my favorite part. That is the knowledge economy way. That is the 21st century way.

The last major tinkering with global finance was when the World Bank and the IMF were created. But this crisis is bigger. So minor tinkering with those two institutions will hardly do the trick. The Twin Towers are gone. It is not like they lost a few floors, so you are going to do repair work. They are gone.

A new tower is going to have to be built. A Freedom Tower. A Prosperity Tower.

No piecemeal approach will work. All three big challenges ask for holistic approaches. And because they all do, you can learn from one to the other. If you can make peace in the Middle East, perhaps you can also fix global finance, perhaps you can also tackle global warming.

That is why it is so important to work on Middle East peace. Permanent peace is possible. Has to be. Global warming can be reversed. Has to be. Global terrorism can be defeated. Has to be. Or we are doomed.

Barack's autobiography is Dreams From My Father. I have always thought of Barack as black. President Barack is black.

He has a sister with an Indian name, I have met and talked to one on one, no time pressure. That is how he is my cousin, distant, but still.

That sister is married to a Chinese Canadian. China will not go to war over Taiwan. I am not worried.

While he was running, some neocons tried to emphasize his middle name. Barack was Barack HUSSEIN Obama.

That he is. White, black, Indian, Chinese, Muslim. I am going to argue he gets along a little too well with Rahm Immanuel for my comfort. That makes him part Jewish too.

Barack Hussein Obama is global, yo.

Global Finance, Global Terrorism, Global Warming, Global President.



In The News

House Passes Obama’s Stimulus Package New York Times, United States
Obama welcomes passage of economic stimulus Reuters
House Approves Obama Stimulus Package Voice of America
Obama says tough decisions soon on Iraq, Afghan wars
Reuters
'Difficult decisions' on Iraq, Afghanistan ahead: Obama AFP
Obama: Tough decisions on Iraq, Afghanistan loom The Associated Press
Editorial: Obama signals end of polluting with impunity
Dallas Morning News, TX
President Obama Meets the Press Huffington Post
Selected recent California newspaper editorials San Jose Mercury News
President Barack Obama reaches out to Muslim world
Chicago Tribune, United States
Barack Obama and Heshem Melhem: The Interview Huffington Post
Obama Gives First Interview on Arab TV MSNBC
Obama and the Wimps
Washington Post, United States
Obama to shivering Washingtonians: Toughen up Reuters
Obama gives chilly reception to canceled school The Associated Press
Rush Limbaugh Doesn't Need Me to Defend Him
FOXNews
Obama vs. Limbaugh, audacity vs. ideology Chicago Tribune
Democrats attack Rush Limbaugh, raise his profile guardian.co.uk
Rush Limbaugh joins nation’s enemies in hoping President Obama ... The Citizen.com
Barack Obama's initial approval rating is highest since JFK
Los Angeles Times, CA
Obama Starts Off With High Approval Ratings DiversityInc.com (subscription)
Poll: Two-thirds approve of Obama's job The Associated Press
Under fire for waving to Barack Obama, jake marches on
Boston Herald, United States
Ohio firefighter quits band over Obama nod The Associated Press
Drum major who waved at Barack Obama on inauguration day suspended Telegraph.co.uk
Drum major suspended for waving at Obama AFP
Russia ready to shelve missiles plan in conciliatory gesture to Obama
guardian.co.uk, UK
Russia offers Obama olive branch on missiles: report Reuters
US Says It Would Welcome Russian Missile Restraint Voice of America
Russia drops plans to deploy missiles next to Poland after Barack ... Telegraph.co.uk
Ahmadinejad welcomes Obama's offer of change
CNN
Ahmadinejad Urges Obama to Apologize for ‘Crimes’ Bloomberg
Iran: Obama Must "Unclench" America's Fist CBS News
Iran rejects US demand to halt atom work Reuters
China Tells Obama What to Do With His Yuan Views
Bloomberg
US Senators to await Obama lead on China currency Reuters
Geithner's Risky Remark Forbes
The Importance of US-China Relations Center For American Progress
Obama, Vatican Clash Over Abortion
FOXNews
Reflections on Obama, peace and abortion Suburban and Wayne Times
Obama sparks abortion dialog The Daily Evergreen
Abortion to be Obama’s ‘Nixon in China’ The Hill
Chicago White Sox invite President Barack Obama to throw out first ...
Chicago Tribune, United States
White Sox to release special Barack Obama hat Chicago Sun-Times
White Sox Plan Special Edition Obama Caps Chicagoist
Obama stimulus plan sparks questions over short-term impact
Bizjournals.com, NC
Economic Stimulus and Other Outdated Quackery Town Hall
Cantor: Stimulus funds should go to sewers and not be squandered Long Island Business News
Analysis: Stimulus money to take longer to work The Associated Press
Morning Skim: Blagojevich Blitz, Davos Shift and Obama’s Message ...
New York Times, United States
To Combat Obama, Al-Qaeda Hurls Insults Washington Post
Clinton: Open international approach could benefit Iran
Newsday, NY
Clinton says world "exhaling" with Obama at top Reuters
Bill Clinton Speech Fees Topped $4.7 Million in '08 Wall Street Journal
Clinton urges broader China approach International Herald Tribune
Bank stocks surge on 'bad bank' plan
Bizjournals.com, NC
Rally in Banking Stocks Lifts Market TheStreet.com
US Stocks Close Up; 'Bad Bank' Talk Buoys Financials MarketWatch
Michelle Obama Gets the Wax Museum Treatment U.S. News & World Report, DC
Madame Tussauds to unveil wax figure of first lady The Associated Press
Michelle Obama Immortalized in Wax People Magazine
Tussauds creating Michelle Obama figure United Press International
What Will President Obama Do for Blacks? Wilmington Journal, NC
Outdoor recreation: At the National Mall for Obama's inauguration Examiner.com
Students experience Obama inauguration first-hand in DC St. Anselm Crier (subscription)
Obama: Washington's Man About Town ABC News