Thursday, December 31, 2015

Race And Achievement: Balancing The Debate

The iPhone has its origins in America's constitution. One person one vote is heady stuff. Nepal and America were at similar levels of socio-economic development when America was born. But America was born out of democratic revolution, Nepal was born out of feudal conquest. And what a difference revolution has made.

The big broad picture in America is there is so much that works. The Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state in India, recently made news because he has started work on what is the 911 service in America. You call 911 and the voice on the other end says, "What's your emergency?" Uttar Pradesh does not have that. It wants it. America has it.

So talk of intersection of law enforcement and race in America has to be balanced out with the fact that police service exists. But that appreciation also should keep the hunger alive. A more perfect union is always the goal. There is always room for improvement. The entire country struggles with race, so it is no surprise that law enforcement does. They don't operate in a vacuum.

There was a point in time when humanity had not yet discovered the human blood circulation system. I feel like on race we are at a point where not enough theoretical work has been done to give the right framework to the debates. Diversity is natural, almost like biology. As that appreciation seeps deeper among peoples, that will help.

On Racism and White Privilege

I am eager to see President Obama's criminal justice reform take shape. I am looking forward to it. I believe it will be quite a milestone.

President Obama: "Our Criminal Justice System Isn't as Smart as It Should Be"
A growing body of research shows that people of color are more likely to be stopped, frisked, questioned, charged, detained. African Americans are more likely to be arrested. They are more likely to be sentenced to more time for the same crime. And one of the consequences of this is, around one million fathers are behind bars. Around one in nine African American kids has a parent in prison. ...... Our nation is being robbed of men and women who could be workers and taxpayers, could be more actively involved in their children’s lives, could be role models, could be community leaders,

and right now they’re locked up for a non-violent offense

. ....... Last year, in fact, America's crime rate and incarceration rate both went down at the same time, for the first time in 40 years. ..... the three key areas in which we need to focus on reform: the community, the courtroom, and the cell block. ......

"The best time to stop [crime] is before it even starts," President Obama said, reiterating the need to invest in America's children. "If we make investments early in our children, we will reduce the need to incarcerate those kids."

....... One study shows that for every dollar that we invest in preschool, we save at least twice that over the long run in crime reduction. And summer jobs for teenagers are only a fraction of the cost of incarceration down the road. ......

strengthen community-police relationships across the country

...... we need to shorten the mandatory minimum sentences for nonviolent drug crimes, or eliminate them entirely....... We need to ask prosecutors to use their discretion to seek the best punishment, the one that's going to be most effective, instead of just the longest punishment. We should invest in alternatives to prison, like drug courts and treatment and probation programs -- which ultimately can save taxpayers thousands of dollars per defendant each year. ....... offering more job training for inmates. ..... if somebody in the midst of imprisonment recognizes the error of their ways, is in the process of reflecting about where they’ve been and where they should be going, we’ve got to make sure that they’re in a position to make the turn ....... the overuse of solitary confinement in our prisons, which is often more likely to make inmates more alienated, hostile, and violent. ...... It's unfair to put the entire burden on our police officers, our courtroom prosecutors, our judges, and our prison guards -- we have to invest in our communities, and we have to invest in expanding opportunity for all. ..... "Justice is not only the absence of oppression, it is the presence of opportunity. Justice is giving every child a shot at a great education no matter what zip code they’re born into. Justice is giving everyone willing to work hard the chance at a good job with good wages, no matter what their name is, what their skin color is, where they live."
Remarks by the President on Criminal Justice Reform
Over the course of this year, I’ve been talking to people all across the country about reforming our criminal justice system to be fairer, to be smarter, to be more effective. I’ve met with police chiefs and beat cops. I've met with prisoners, corrections officers. I've met with families of fallen police officers and families of children who were killed by gun violence. I've met with men and women battling drug abuse, and rehab coaches, and folks working on new solutions for treatment. ......

I have, at times, despaired about the magnitude of the problem.

...... disrupting the pipeline from underfunded schools to overcrowded jails. ...... We account for 5 percent of the world’s population, 25 percent of its inmates. They are disproportionately black and Latino. ...... almost all these individuals will eventually be released. More than 600,000 inmates are released each year. Around 70 million Americans have some sort of criminal record ...... the federal government is a big employer, as you know, and like a lot of big employers, on many job applications there’s a box that asks if you have a criminal record. If you answer yes, then a lot of times you’re not getting a call back. ...... a bill that would reduce mandatory minimums for non-violent offenders. It would invest in law enforcement. It would reward prisoners with time off if they complete programs that make it less likely that they will commit crimes in the future. .......

this is an area where we’ve seen some really strong bipartisan work

Obama Calls for Sweeping Criminal Justice Reforms in NAACP Speech
Obama called for reducing or eliminating mandatory minimum sentences, reviewing the use of the solitary confinement and barring employers from asking job applicants about their criminal history ...... Any system that allows us to turn a blind-eye to hopelessness and despair, that’s not a justice system,

that’s an injustice system

..... “Justice is not only the absence of oppression, it’s the presence of opportunity.” ..... the “strange bedfellows” that efforts to reform the criminal justice system have created, among them the Koch brothers and the NAACP. ...... the first sitting U.S. president to visit a federal prison
President Obama for the prisoners
the state of criminal justice in America. It is an aspect of American life that remains, in his words, “a source of inequity that has ripple effects on families and on communities and ultimately on our nation.” ...... disturbing statistics about the country’s incarceration rate, which is the highest in the world and riddled with racial discrepancies ..... sentencing reforms that would increase the discretion available to judges and prosecutors and either reduce or eliminate mandatory minimums. He called for changes to prisons that would reduce abuse, overcrowding and the use of solitary confinement, and increase job-training and drug-treatment programmes. He wants to restore voting rights to ex-felons and make it easier for ex-convicts to get jobs. He also proposed more investments in pre-school education, more humane community policing and more jobs for teenagers. .......

The $80 billion Mr Obama referred to is America’s annual corrections budget. That chunk of change might instead be used to fund universal pre-K for every 3- and 4-year-old, he opined, or to build bridges or double the salary of every high-school teacher. It could even be used, he said, to eliminate tuition at every public college and university.

........ “we need to be honest: there are a lot of folks who belong in prison.” The majority of state prisoners (54%) are behind bars for violent felonies. .......... most of America’s imprisonment takes place at the state level. So the real work of reducing mass incarceration falls to governors, police chiefs, sheriffs, prosecutors, judges, state legislators and activists around the country. The real challenge for them, then, is to convince voters of the benefits of reducing mass incarceration.
Obama pushes for ‘smarter, fairer’ criminal justice reforms
There have also been calls for reforms to policing policies around the country, particularly in minority communities, in large part because of the Black Lives Matter movement’s response to the killing of several unarmed black men and women by police officers.

मोदी का विदेश भ्रमण और FDI

कल जो मैंने कह दिया वो तो मैं राहुल पर व्यंग्य वान प्रहार कर रहा था। कि यार जरा FDI पर स्कूलिंग करो। मैं तो बहुत बड़ा फैन हुँ मोदी के भ्रमण का। दो बड़े बड़े काम हुवे हैं।

  • चीन को भी अमेरिका को भी मात करना। ये तो बहुत बड़ी बात हो गयी। नहीं? 
  • भारत को दुनिया के नक्से पर स्थापित किया। भारत सिर्फ भारत में नहीं है। भारत तो सरे विश्व में है। मोदी पर प्रवासी भारतीयों का भी तो हक़ बनता है। चीन ने पिछले २५ साल में जो किया है वो प्रवासी चिनिया समुदाय के बगैर कर ही नहीं सकते थे। 
I was totally joking. भाषा ही देखो मजाक का है। 

मोदी को दो चीज करने चाहिए। 
  • अपने रोडमैप पर चलो। विपक्ष ने कहा विदेश भ्रमण ज्यादा हो गया तो उसके आधार पर कटौती मत करो। 
  • बल्कि explain भी करते जाओ। जब आवाज आती है भ्रमण बहुत हुवा तो जवाब दो कि भ्रमण क्यों हो रहा है। 
वैसे भी मेरे को लगता है अब आगे के साल विदेश भ्रमण का सिलसिला वैसे भी naturally ही पहले साल से कम पड़ जायेगा। लेकिन dramatically कम हो गया तो खटकेगा। कि क्या हुवा? कहीं भारत FDI के लिए less welcoming तो नहीं हो गया? 

मोदी जब किसी देश का भ्रमण करते हैं और वहाँ  मीडिया कवरेज मिलती है अगर उतना स्पेस बतौर विज्ञापन खरीदना पड़े तो क्या हिसाब पड़ेगा? मेरे को लगता है वो मीडिया कवरेज --- that itself pays for the expenses associated with the visit. 

वैसे भी सरकार चलाने में किसी किस्म की कमी हुई हो वैसा तो मेरे को नहीं लगता। कि मोदी विदेश में है सरकार कौन चलाएगा। मंत्री मंडल है। सरकारी यंत्र है। राज्य राज्य में मुख्य मंत्री। 

Modi should follow his instincts and stick to his plan. 

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Right To Privacy Is Important

The right to privacy is important. There is a reason why it is listed as one of the fundamental human rights, like free speech. Just because technology makes privacy invasion possible does not mean it is okay to go ahead and do it. You could destroy or disorient a person's sense of well-being by mauling their privacy.

Mass surveillance gone awry is like just because America has atom bombs, it is going to let them explode. Human lives were lost, but then the technological possibility just showed up. Tech: handle with care. Right to free speech perhaps is not as important as right to life, but one should not have to choose.

And that is a challenge. Because there is so much that can be done fast with the right use of this new technology. Say face recognition. Or biometric ID. That would be a great way to give every human being an ID and perhaps something like a credit history, fast. This could also be put to security use. We would be less anxious about people moving around globally if we were more sure about who they were. People could be seamlessly checking in at all major mass transit points.

Gmail does it well. It can not serve you ads, unless it is reading all your emails. But no human being is reading. It is machine reading. So you don't feel like your privacy is being invaded.

I guess in the case of ID, you would also need a proper governing authority, like a world government.  Done right we could actually afford to let people move around as freely as goods and capital. I am putting a five trillion value on that. As in, all else equal, if people can move around freely, that would add five trillion dollars to the global economy almost immediately.

Modi: NRI Prime Minister?

किसी ने कह दिया मोदी को NRI Prime Minister ------- महिनो पहले राहुल गांधी ने ऐलान किया था, "हमारे प्रधान मंत्री अभी भारत के भ्रमण पर आए हुवे हैं।

मोदी पिछले २०-३० साल कभी एक दिन भीं कहीं vacation पर नहीं गए। दिलोजान काम करते रह गए। तो जब प्रधान मंत्री बने तो शायद उन्हें लगा चलो यही मौका है, सुद ब्याज सहित सब असुल लेते हैं। काम की क्या पड़ी है। काम तो होता ही रहता है। काम कभी ख़त्म होता है क्या? कुछ न कुछ होता ही रहता है।

मेरे को लगता है अब शायद ही कोई देश बचा हो। और जहाँ खुद नहीं गए वहाँ के लोगों को खुद बुला लिए।

India emerges top FDI destination leaving behind China, US in 2015
Guest column: Modi magic? India overtakes China, US on FDI front in first half of 2015
India Becomes World’s Top FDI Destination, Beats USA & China In Attracting Investors
Pay-off time for Modi: India displaces US, China as the top FDI destination in 2015
Why Does India Beat China In the Remittance Game?

Monday, December 28, 2015

Bajirao Mastani: English Subtitles: US Mainstream Release

बजराओ मस्तानी विक्की क्रिस्टीना बार्सिलोना

डबिंग करो तो मजा किरकिरा हो जाता है। हाँ, लेकिन इंग्लिश सबटाइटल दे दो तो मेरे को लगता है ये मूवी अमरिका के  जो मेनस्ट्रीम थिएटर हैं वहाँ जोरो से चलेगी। सुनते हैं १०० करोड़ पार कर चुकी मूवी। अमरिका में १०० मिलियन डॉलर पार करेगी। कर के तो देखो।

अमरिका का टेक रेवोलुशन सब श्रेय जाता है नेहरू को। वो तो अभी गूगल माइक्रोसॉफ्ट में उपर ही आ गए हैं। नहीं तो शुरू से ही भारतीय इंजीनियर ही सब काम कर रहे हैं। तो सॉफ्टवेयर इंजीनियर भेजा तो कमाई हुवी।

लगे हाथ अब शहर शहर योग गुरु भेजो। वैसे भारतीय डाक्टर पहले ही पहुंच गए हैं। प्रत्येक शहर में। लेकिन योग गुरु भेजो। बहुत बड़ा मार्केट हैं। लोकल योग गुरु उटपटांग कर देते हैं। मैं गया हुँ। योग को १००% स्ट्रेचिंग बना के प्रस्तुत करते हैं। तो मेरे को लगा नहीं यहाँ मार्केट है।

डाक्टर भेजा। सॉफ्टवेयर इंजीनियर भेजा। आग लगे हाथ योग गुरु भी भेजो।

उसको बाद बजिराओ मस्तानी इंग्लिश सबटाइटल में रिलीज़ करो। तब हिंदी सिखलाने वाले लैंग्वेज टीचर भी भेजना शुरू कर दो। बिहार इस मायने में आगे आ सकता है। शिक्षा का विरासत है बिहार में। लोग कहने लगेंगे सबटाइटल से काम नहीं चल रहा। हमें हिंदी सिखना है। तो सिखो। कौन रोक रहा है?

एक राजनीतिक एंगल भी है। ब्रिटेन को धक्का दे के भारत को उसका जगह लेना है। अमरिका और भारत।

Sunday, December 27, 2015

Opposition Ki Jaroorat

Opposition Ki Jaroorat

Bharat ke rajniti ko do cheej ki sakht jarrorat hai. Ek ki paanch sal mein sirf do deen chunav ho. Yani national, state aur local election sirf us do deen honge. Ravivar ko, chhutti ke din. Taki log booth par asani se jaa sake.

Ek wo, aur dusra desh ke rajniti ka bi-polarization. Mera Modi se man ub gaya wo main nahin kah raha. Actually, I am more excited about Modi now than I was about a year ago. Ek sal pahle to sirf promise tha, kam to kuchh dikha nahin tha. Ab to maine kaam bhi dekh liya. Bahut thos kam kar rahe hain. Lekin Modi ka bhavishy nirnay karne wala main kaun hota? Modi ko banaya bharat ki janata ne. Modi ko tikayega bharat ki janata. Main to us equation mein hun nahin.

Lekin desh ke rajniti ko polarization chahiye. Ek hai National Democratic Alliance. Aur us mein jarrorat se jyada alliance partner hain wasi baat nahin. Balki jitne chahiye satta mein tike rahne ke liye, usse kahin kam hain. Dusra pole hai Grand Alliance. Wo abhi Bihar mein shuru huwa hai. Usko national banana desh ke liye bahut jaroori hai.

Bijli nikalne ke liye koyala jab jalate ho, to kitne heat ka bijli banta hai aur kitna heat exhaust ke raste jaa ke waste ho jata hai? Percentage kya hai? Bigya jara enlighten karo. To wahi baat hai. 2014 ke chunav mein 30% BJP ko mat mila. Uske adhar pe akele usne bahumat le aaya. 20% Congress ko. Lekin uske adhar pe wo Opposition ka jagah bhi nahin bana payi. Yani ki wo exhaust mein chala gaya vote. Aur banki 50% to total waste. Yani ki abhi Bharat ke loktantr naam ka jo diesel engine hai, uska efficiency hai sirf 30%. Tees percent se bijli nikal raha hai, banki 70% waste mein jaa rahi hai.

Bipolarization ho jati hai, to NDA ka bhi size shayad badhega. To NDA aur GA. Tab efficiency almost 100% par pahunch jayegi. Yani ki 55% la ke koi sarkar banayega. Aur 45% ka opposition.

Lekin usko shayad 100% nahin kaha ja sakta. Vote kitne ne diye? 60% ne. To abhi efficiency 30% nahin hai, abhi 15% par hai. Bipolarization ke baad wo pahunch jayega 60% par. Yani ki 60% heat ka bijli niklega, banki gaya exhaust pipe se bahar.

To bipolarization BJP aur Modi ke liye bhi achhi baat hogi. A superior democracy will spring forth a superior economy. Aur Modi ka total focus hai economy.

Modi ka total focus hai economy. Wo unka strength bhi hai aur weakness bhi. Social issues par wo nadarad rahte hain. Bharat mein BJP aur America mein Republican Party kuchh milte julte hain. Pratyek desh mein ek political spectrum hota hai, extreme left se extreme right tak. Adhikansh log center mein hote hain. Sarkare adhiakansh waise log banate hain jinka bichar centrist ho. To Modi khud centrist hain. Lekin BJP ka jo tent hai, usmein center se le ke right se le ke far right se le ke kucch extreme right tatwa bhi hain. Modi khud na far right hain, na extreme right. Agar hote to main pasand nahin karta. Aur main bade gaur se dekh raha hoon. Hindu hone ka pride hai, aur hona bhi chahiye. Lekin auro ke prati ghrina nahin hai dil mein. Kamsekam mere direct observation mein abhi tak mere ko ek bhi waisa evidence nahin mila.

Lekin tent bada hai. Ek kah sakte ho aadmi kamjor hai. Apne hi tent ke logon ko thikane nahin laga sakta. Dusra perspective ye ho sakta hai ki ye aadmi kamjor nahin hai ki ye ek aise desh ka Pradhan Mantri hai jo duniya ka sabse bada loktantr hai. Bharat: loktantr ki janani bhumi hai. Loktantr British ne upahar nahin diya. Duniya ka pahla ganatantr Buddha ne sthapit kiya. Sanatani shaitano ne ujad ke fek diya, wo alag baat hai. Bandar. Monkey.

To loktantr mein kya hota hai ki jo galat bolta hai usko bhi bolne ka adhikar hota hai. Free speech. To ye to achhi baat hai ki desh ka pradhan mantri kisi ki bolti band nahin kar sakta. That is what we want.

To wahan par kami dikhi Opposition ki. Ki log jab galat bolte hain, to uske biruddh aap kyon nahin bolte? Wo to PM ka nahin Opposition ka kaam hai. Laloo aur Nitish ka kaam hai. National economy par top level ka kaam ho raha hai. Modi is a gift to India. Par social issues par space hai Opposition ke liye. BJP ke tent ke under aise log hain jinko democratic counter karne ki jaroorat hai. Kabhi love jihad, to kabhi ghar wapasi. Hote hote dadri. To us space mein Grand Alliance nirnayak role khel sakti hai.

Yani ki agar desh mein intolerance badha hai, jaisa ki kaha jata hai, to uski jimmedari Opposition ko leni padegi. Agar aap is tarah bikhre na hote to far right ke logon ki himmat patli ho jati. To aap is tarah jo bikhre pade hain, usse desh mein far right ko jaroorat se jyada jagah mil raha hai. The opposition is responsible.

Speech aur peaceful political action ----- loktantr mein ye allow hai. Shantipurvak aap sangathit ho sakte hain. Shantipurvak aap rajnitik karyakram kar sakte ho. Wo adhikar far right ko bhi hai, far left ko bhi, center left ko bhi.

Violence to na social issue hai, na political issue hai. Violence is and should be illegal, and the law should be strictly enforced. Murder ke biruddh to law hai. Hate crime ke biruddh law hai ki nahin? Nahin hai to banao. Law enforcement ko sirf din dahade murder hi nahin, domestic violence, caste violence, aur religious riots ko bhi tackle karna hoga. Us kabil banaya jana chahiye. Kaun kisko mar raha hai hame us se matlab nahin. Ham mardhar hone nahin denge. Hame sirf usse matlab hai. Law enforcement ka wo attitude hona chahiye. A riots-free India is possible. Tsunami/typhoon ke liye jis tarah early warning system hota hai, usi tarah desh bhar mein riots ke liye early warning system hone chahiye. Ki haan, yahan lag raha hai sthiti bigar ke riot ke taraf chali jayegi, to baat wahan tak pahunchne se pahle force ko wahan par pahunch jana hai. Jo karna hai so karna hai.

Law and order to first priority hai. Nitish ko log credit de dete hain. Ye kiya, wo kiya, Bihar mein bikas kiya. Are, unhone to sirf law and order take care kiya. Bikas to apne aap ho gayi. Pahle wo Sushasan Babu bane uske baad hi Bikashpurush banne ka mauka mila.

To desh bhar mein violence ko secular kism se tackle karna hai. Yani ki domestic violence ho ya caste violence ho ya phir religious violence: zero tolerance. Jaan aur dhan ki suraksha adhunik rajya (modern state) ka pratham aur sabse pramukh jimmewari hai. To wo capacity building ek pramukh rajnitik mudda hai. National, state aur local sab level par.

Grand Alliance ko ek national rup dena hoga. Aur social issues par bahut jyada space hai jo cover kiya ja sakta hai. Jaise ki Dalit liberation, wo to Mayawati ko hi karna hoga. Kaun karega? Bharat ka liberation to Gandhi aur Nehru aur Patel ko hi karna pada ki nahin? Ki koi Germany ya France se aa ke kar diya?

Ek democratic structure bana do to koi lafda nahin hota ki kaun neta banega, kya hoga. Vote kar do. Ho gaya nirnay.

Dalit liberation ka rasta Bharat liberation se fark nahin hai. Ki hum hain Harijan. Hamara naam Dalit nahin. Wo hamara abhi ka political status hai jise hum khatm karenge. Hamara apna ek alag dharm hai. Hum Rambhakt hain. Jis tarah Old Testament sirf Yahudi ka nahin Isai ka bhi, usi tarah Ved Puran Upanishad hamara bhi, lekin hamara pramukh granth hai Tulsidas ka Ramayana. Ramcharitmanas. Jis tarah Muslman ka apna alag dharm, Buddhist ka apna alag dharm, usi tarah Harijan ka bhi apna alag dharm. Ravana bhi Sanatani Shaitan, Valmiki bhi Sanatani Shaitan. Mandir toda Sanatani Shaitan ne, dosh de rahe Musalman ko. Harijan Muslim ko divide and rule.

Laoo, ya Nitish, ya Akhilesh, ya Mulayam, ya Modi koi aa ke liberate karne wala nahin. Liberation ko khud ka kaam hota hai.

Saturday, December 26, 2015

2016: The Year For Barack Obama's Revolution From The Top

2016: The Year For Barack Obama's Revolution From The Top

Barack Obama’s autobiography Dreams From My Father is full of little references to what Nelson Mandela in his autobiography called “a thousand little indignities.” But one was talking mostly about America, the other about apartheid South Africa. Can one black man’s ascension to the top make up for racist snarls at the highest levels of government like in the US Senate?

It is time we faced the fact the United Nations is not a world government. It is time to call a spade a spade. It is time to see this institution designed by the World War II victors no longer works. This is not a world government by the far stretches of the imagination. Often when we talk of civil rights movements, we think in terms of ordinary people marching out in the streets. But now is the time for a civil rights movement in which the heads of state march.

What we have is essentially apartheid. The leading country remains fundamentally racist, nowhere more evident than in the country’s criminal justice system. There is no world government. There is a need for one. The thorniest global problems, the loftiest trade deals are worked on outside the UN framework.

America itself needs to be reimagined if it is to fulfill its original mission of a total spread of democracy. It needs to become a country where African immigrants are as at home as European immigrants. White is black is white.

In a democracy you get to vote because you are a human being, not because you are literate or rich. But in the community of nations, there are countries that are rich and have guns, and most have neither. The entire continent of Africa stands disenfranchised. This landmass that is the most central of all, from where we all originated, is still in the clutches of a contemporary incarnation of colonization, slavery and apartheid. We don’t have a name for it yet, but the affliction is very real. Its poverty and disease stem from that disempowerment, not the other way round. And so, any voice that seeks to address its poverty and disease without taking stock of its disenfranchisement is shedding crocodile tears.

What is Barack Obama going to do? Leave the White House and do paid speeches? Write books? Launch a foundation? Raise money for AIDS? Share a stage or two with Bono and George Clooney? The guy is still young. This guy who has cleared up half century old cobwebs every year he has been in office is best suited to lead this revolution from the top. And this is not a cry for Africa, although Africa could use some empowerment. This is a cry for the world. Right now we are a species looking down a sinkhole of uncontrolled weather patterns that just might wipe out life and civilization as we know it. We still have immense poverty and disease that Bill Gates says “only a world government can solve,” and Gates is a guy who has thrown the kitchen sink at the problem, one of the leading entrepreneurs of the era in whose wake many billionaires have given money to fight basic poverty. We face security threats that no one government can solve. Globalization continues to move at breakneck speeds speeding up as the Internet takes deeper roots everywhere, but we have not done the task of institution building that that globalization requires.

Let’s open our eyes and take a look at the elephant in the room. Yes, what we need is a world government, and there is no person better than Barack Obama to take the lead on it. We are lucky we have a George Washington precisely when we need one. And lucky us that the guy is almost done with his current job where he has been stellar every year. Heads of state across the world should join in this chorus and shape this revolution from the top. Lucky us that our thorniest global problems have solutions in political concepts we have already designed, like one person one vote taken to its logical, global conclusion.

There is always inertia. Every monumental political change that in hindsight looks so obviously positive has faced inertia. And this likely will be no different. But the blueprint has to be made, and it has to be presented to ordinary peoples on all continents, so a groundswell of support can build around it.

We want to live in a world where human beings can feel equal everywhere. We want to live in a world with abundant clean energy. We want to live in a world with abundant water, and food and green space. We want clean air. We want to create the industries of tomorrow. We seek unprecedented rises in productivity, as well equitable distribution. We want people to be happy.

It is time the heads of state across the world came together and created the world’s first world government in the leadership of Barack Obama. In his birth as well as personality and outlook, he bridges the world. In his person the world has a chance to come together to reach new heights. This century can not only be the best ever, it can also be one where we have gone past our existential worries, where we have created a truly global civilization, one grand village where everyone can feel a sense of belonging everywhere, where people can take pride in their heritage and claim the common future at the same time, without hassle.

This is in essence a political struggle, where all you start with is a voice. Ordinary people have done it many times before. Heads of state can do it this one time.

It is still about Hope. It is still about Change.

We need a world government because it is time we established rule of law between nations. That is the civilized way.

राजेंद्र महतो लाई ICU पुर्याउने सरकार राजीनामा दे, काठमाण्डु छोड़, देश छोड़, ये धरती हमारी, ये मुल्क हमारा
E for Education, E for Entrepreneurship, E for Energy
Barack Obama: George Washington
आर्थिक क्रांतिका पाँच पाण्डव: सुशासन, शिक्षा, स्वास्थ्य, संरचना, (उद्योगव्यापार) सुलभता
Barack Obama Is Biologically Superior
An Open Letter To Barack Obama

बुश का बघदाद (२)

बुश का बघदाद

अमरिका पर बिन लादेन ने बाद में हमला किया। उससे पहले हमला बोला बुश ने। Record Surplus को Record Deficit बना दिया। इतना बड़ा टैक्स कट किया कि देश सीधे मुह के बल जा के गिर पड़ी।

जनता मुर्ख। उसने वैसा ही मैंडेट माँगा था। जनता ने दे दिया। अमेरिका के गरीब जनता को social issues पर इस तरह डिवाइड कर दिए हैं ये नियमित अपने अहित में वोट देते रहते हैं।

९/११ हुवा। तो अफ़ग़ानिस्तान पर वार करो। कि पर्ल हार्बर पर अटैक किया जापान ने और तुम ने अटैक कर दिया इंडोनेशिया? Looking Tokyo Going London? अभी भी ४०% अमेरिकी कहते हैं ९/११ किया सद्दाम ने। ४०% वो वही हैं जो नक़्शे पर प्रशांत महासागर नहीं ढूँढ सकते। २०-३०% अमरीकी कहते हैं ओबामा मुसलमान है।

कितने लोग मरे वो भी हिसाब करो लेकिन ओ अलग करो। इस ब्लॉग पोस्ट में सिर्फ पैसा की बात करते हैं। एक से १० लाख के बीच लोग मरे सब मिला के। युद्ध के कारण जो सिविल वॉर हो गया उसके मृतक भी तो गिनोगे। जितने अमरिकी ९/११ में मरे उससे जयादा इराक में।

युद्ध का बिल बुश का तीन ट्रिलियन डॉलर। वो इतना ज्यादा पैसा है लोग सोंचना ही छोड़ देते हैं। कहीं १०० डॉलर पॉकेटमारी होती है तो पुलिस बुलाओ। एक लाख डॉलर का फ्रॉड होता है तो पुलिस बुलाओ केस करो। मिलियन डॉलर करप्शन को लफड़ा हो जाता है। लेकिन तीन ट्रिलियन। उसको तो छोड़ दो।

ट्रिलियन से नीचे का तो गप्प ही नहीं है बुश काल में। पहले तो एक ट्रिलियन सबसे धनाढ्य लोगो को बाँट दिया। बाँट ही दिया। लो, मुफ्त का पैसा। मेरे बाप की कमाई। तीन ट्रिलियन युद्ध में खर्च। MasterCard swipe करो। खर्चा कौन भरेगा? चीन किस कामके? वॉल स्ट्रीट पर ट्रिलियन डॉलर का फ्रॉड। तो अर्थतंत्र जब तास के घर के माफिक गिरा ........ बिन लादेन ने तो सिर्फ वर्ल्ड ट्रेड सेंटर गिराया। बुश ने पुरे अर्थतंत्र को ही गिरा दिया। अर्थतंत्र कोलॅप्स हुवा तो १३ ट्रिलियन डॉलर ऐसे गायब हुवा जैसे पीसी सरकार ने आ के गायब कर दिया हो। सफाचट। Wiped out, gone forever.

यार, किसी की भी ब्रेकिंग पॉइंट होती है। अमेरिकी अर्थतंत्र का भी था, वैज्ञानिक बुश ने पता लगा के छोड़ा।

अमेरिकी सरकार का एक साल का बजेट होता है तीन ट्रिलियन। यानि कि बहुत बड़ा अमाउंट है जिसकी मैं बात कर रहा।
अभी कहानी ख़त्म नहीं हुवी। तो स्टिमुलस कह के ७०० बिलियन खर्चे करने पड़े। करना चाहिए तीन ट्रिलियन लेकिन बुश के पार्टी ने होने नहीं दिया। तो देशको monetary स्टिमुलस के रास्ते जाने पड़े। उसका मतलब प्रिंटिंग प्रेस चालु करो और पैसा छापो। Basically पैसा छापो और बड़े बड़े बैंक को मुफ्त में दे दो। जीरो इंटरेस्ट रेट पर। सब तरफ बुश के दोस्त ही दोस्त।

Quantitative Easing
Quantitative easing is distinguished from standard central banking monetary policies, which are usually enacted by buying or selling government bonds on the open market to reach a desired target for the interbank interest rate. However, if a recession or depression continues even when a central bank has lowered interest rates to nearly zero, the central bank can no longer lower interest rates. The central bank may then implement a set of tactics known as quantitative easing. This policy is often considered a last resort to stimulate the economy. ...... A central bank enacts quantitative easing by purchasing—without reference to the interest rate—a set quantity of bonds or other financial assets on financial markets from private financial institutions...... Quantitative easing, and monetary policy in general, can only be carried out if the central bank controls the currency used in the country. The central banks of countries in the Eurozone, for example, cannot unilaterally expand their money supply and thus cannot employ quantitative easing. They must instead rely on the European Central Bank (ECB) to enact monetary policy.
How the Great Recession Was Brought to an End
The U.S. government’s response to the financial crisis and ensuing Great Recession included some of the most aggressive fiscal and monetary policies in history. The response was multifaceted and bipartisan, involving the Federal Reserve, Congress, and two administrations. Yet almost every one of these policy initiatives remain controversial to this day, with critics calling them misguided, ineffective or both. The debate over these policies is crucial because, with the economy still weak, more government support may be needed, as seen recently in both the extension of unemployment benefits and the Fed’s consideration of further easing. ....... without the government’s response, GDP in 2010 would be about 11.5% lower, payroll employment would be less by some 8½ million jobs, and the nation would now be experiencing deflation. ...... When we divide these effects into two components—one attributable to the fiscal stimulus and the other attributable to financial-market policies such as the TARP, the bank stress tests and the Fed’s quantitative easing—we estimate that the latter was substantially more powerful than the former.

Friday, December 25, 2015

पहली बार मोदी नवाज Body Language पॉजिटिव है

Modi's Lahore stopover nothing more than an adventure, says Congress
"It is unfortunate that we get to know about prime minister's visit through a tweet... India and Pakistan relations are not so good as yet that he stops over there on his way back from another country," Congress spokesperson Ajoy Kumar said.

बजराओ मस्तानी विक्की क्रिस्टीना बार्सिलोना

एक इंटरव्यू में दीपिका ने कहा कि वो चाहती हैं वुडी एलेन के साथ काम करें। मेरे नजर में वुडी एलेन का सबसे बेहतर मुवी है विक्की क्रिस्टीना बार्सिलोना। तो बजराओ मस्तानी विक्की क्रिस्टीना बार्सिलोना को एडाप्ट किया गया है ऐसा लगता है। उससे भी बेहतर। क्योंकि विक्की क्रिस्टीना में मुघल बगैरह नहीं हैं। इमोशन तो इमोशन होता है, चाहे ओ आज का हो या २०० साल पहले का हो। टेक्नोलॉजी बदल सकता है, इमोशन परमानेंट है। दिलखुश। बहुत गहरा चोट करती है ये मूवी। अमिताभ की सीधे उत्तराधिकारी हैं दीपिका। इनको एक्शन में देख के तिलमिला जाते हैं।

बुश का बघदाद

MasterCard Classic
MasterCard Classic (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
बुश जब बघदाद आया तो सबसे पहले क्या काम किया कि ट्रांसफार्मर उड़ाओ, पानी टंकी उड़ाओ। सद्दाम कहीं भी छुपा हो सकता है। अजीब आदमी है। ये नहीं सोंचा लोग पानी पीते होंगे। मरुभूमि इलाका। तबतो सद्दाम ने पानी टंकी लगवायी होगी। कि पानी टंकी लगा दो नहीं तो लोग बगावत कर देंगे। प्रेस्टीज इशू है। अगर लोग बगावत कर देते हैं तो फिर ये जो इमेज है कि सद्दाम डिक्टेटर है वो तो गयी काम से। तो बुश ने उड़ा दिया। सबसे पहले। उसको कोई परवाह नहीं कि बगावत हो सकती है।

बुलडोज़र लगाने में टाइम लगता है क्या? दो चार रोज में युद्ध ख़त्म। तो फिर तुरंत उन्ही ट्रांसफार्मर और पानी टंकी के लिए अपने करीबी दोस्तों को मेगा बिलियन का बिना कम्पटीशन का कॉन्ट्रैक्ट दे दिया। देश लिबरेट कर दिया अब लगा दो ट्रांसफार्मर, लगा दो पानी टंकी। इराकी भी क्या याद करेंगे। 

राजनीति में एक पुराना नियम है: Follow The Money. अगर आपको राजनीति समझ नहीं आती और समझना हो तो ये फोर्मुला लगा दो बहुत राजनीति आपको समझ में आ जाएगी। 

कुछ हैं conspiracy theorists वेबसाइट बगैरह बना के बैठे हैं कहते हैं ९/११ बुश ने किया, it was an inside job ---- अजीब लोग हैं। बिन लादेन को इस बात का इतना बुरा लगता था वो कभी क्रेडिट लेने से नहीं चुकता था। वीडियो निकालता था कि ईद मुबारक और अंत में जाते जाते ९ दो ११ के बारें थोड़ा हिंट दे देता था। फिर से अटैक की तयारी करो या ऐसा कुछ। ताकि अगर कोई गलतफहमी हो तो दुर हो जाए। 

९/११ बुश ने नहीं किया। बिन लादेन ने किया। लेकिन जिसको हम आप और ओबामा Great Recession कहते हैं और जिसे बुश और उनके दोस्त लोग Grand Recession कहते हैं --- वो लेकिन inside job था ---- fully documented. 

अमेरिका का अपना पैसा तो था नहीं। चीन से उधार में लो और इराक में खर्चा करो। बुश ने क्रेडिट कार्ड स्वाइप कर के युद्ध किया। Paid for by MasterCard. ..... कहते हैं There are somethings money can't buy, for everything else there is MasterCard. तो बघदाद का पानी टंकी बगैरह वो MasterCard केटेगरी के थे। 

अगर आप के देश का बजेट हो १०० बिलियन और आप ३३ बिलियन युद्ध में होम दो तो क्या होगा? उसी हिसाब से अगर आप के देश का बजेट हो तीन ट्रिलियन तो? 

नेपाली में कहते हैं भ्वांग। मैथिलि में कहते हैं भुम। हिंदी में क्या कहते हैं? 

तो ये सबके सामने हो रहा था तो वाल स्ट्रीट वालो ने फोटोकॉपी मार दिया। घर गिरबी रख के लोग लोन लेते हैं। लेकिन एक ही घर पर चार बार पाँच बार लोन लो तो क्या होगा? घर बैंक का है आप का अभी हुवा भी नहीं लेकिन आप ने लोन निकाल लिया। बैंक ने वैसे ढेर सारे घरो का बनडलिंग कर दिया और किसी दूसरे बैंक को होलसेल में बेच दिया। वैसे ही दो चार राउंड हो गया। उसको कहा गया innovation ---- यानि कि हम financial instruments बना रहे हैं। सब लोग अपना मंथली पेमेंट करते रहे तब तक पता नहीं चलता। लेकिन कुछ लोग ऐसे निकले घर खरीदने के स्थिति में नहीं थे फिर भी डाउन पेमेंट कर चुके थे। पियर प्रेशर। नौकरी चली गयी। मंथली पेमेंट बंद। पैसा रहेगा तब न दिजिएगा। आप बुश हैं जो चीन से उधार लोगे। 

तो पुरा घर तास के पत्ते के घर के तरह गिर गया ----- now THAT was an inside job. वो बिन लादेन ने नहीं किया। हालांकि वो क्रेडिट लेना चाहता था। उसका था कि अमेरिका को ऐसे युद्ध में घिंचो कि वो afford ना कर सके। 

Great Recession में कितने ट्रिलियन डॉलर ध्वस्त हो गए अभी तक हिसाब हो रहा है। बहुत मिडिल क्लास और लोअर मिडिल क्लास अमेरिकी का पेंशन गायब गया। उनकी क्या होगी वो तो जब वो रिटायर होंगे तब पता चलेगा। 

अमेरिका में भी बहुत घपला है।

चिनिया कहते हैं non-interference ----- वो लेकिन कह रहे हैं युद्ध बहुत खर्चिला होता है अच्छा बिजनेस नहीं। युद्ध से अच्छा बिजनेस हैं लोगों को लोन दो, विशेष कर के उन्हें जो युद्ध करना चाहते हैं।

टेक्सास में काऊबॉय कल्चर है।

India: Holding Two Elections Every Five Years

Indian general election, 2009
Indian general election, 2009 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I think that would be a great idea. The entire country has only two election dates every five years. The national elections and half the state elections are held on one day. State elections for the rest of the states are held on the other day. And all local elections are also held on one of the two days.

For the state elections it would be a good idea to get half the country (by population) vote on one day, and the other half on the other day. If you put together the North-East, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh in one basket, would that be half the country? If not add a few more adjacent states. 

Basically you get rid of the idea of mid-term elections. Parliaments do full terms. Why not? 

With the current system, you can get a decisive mandate for the Lok Sabha and still feel like you never really got a mandate. Elections are never over. There's always a major election just round the corner. Bihar is over, Uttar Pradesh is on. That is democratic chaos. 

This would also boost local bodies. You can't have a robust democracy if you don't have robust local bodies. The local bodies are the most exciting part of the democracy. The people get to actively participate. 

Because local elections can be held on either of the two days, both dates will feel like national election days. Maybe the rule should be you can't hold the state and the local election on the same day. That way states will use one date for the state level and the other for the local level election.

And the two dates should be a Sunday. 

Abhi to jo hai chaos hai. 

Thursday, December 24, 2015

Bill Clinton Took Three Years

The guy who gave America its longest peacetime economic expansion took three years to show he was up to something. 1993 was dud, 1994 was dud, 1995 was a dud. But US in 1992 is not India in 2014. The US was already a First World Country at the time. There was no fundamental infrastructure to build. The Indian democracy is so much more complex, one of the smartest Americans ever to become ambassador to India simply referred to it as "the imponderables of Indian politics," JFK's John Kenneth Galbraith.

Narendra Modi has been doing excellent work. At a fundamental level. The GST bill alone will give India another two points in terms of growth. And with everything else he has been doing, I see the economy going past a 10% growth rate before he has to go to the people again in 2019. If the growth rate is past 10%, he will see re-election. I have no doubts in my mind. Right now I don't see how the growth rate will not go past 10%. It has to. He has been doing excellent work. But India is such a big country, so complex, so democratic, the work will take some time to show visible bounce. The challenge is not to get it past 10%, the challenge is to keep it past 10% for 30 years. Modi doing 20 years would make sense.

I will give the guy two more years before I start judging him. People who can't see the people gave him a five year mandate last year don't know the ABC of politics. Bihari voters are smart. They had zero doubts about whether Modi was going to shift from Delhi to Patna. So they picked the guy who is the best man for the job. Nitish Kumar is every bit as skillful a politician.

Bill Clinton is not a good comparison for Narendra Modi. Clinton had it easy by Modi's standards. A more appropriate comparison would be Deng Xiaoping. Deng took much longer, and his work really started showing visible results only after he was dead and gone. At least Indians don't need to wait that long. 2019 will have been long enough for Modi.

The BJP is slated to lose almost all, quite possibly all, state elections next year. And that is nothing to do with Modi. That is to do with state dynamics in each case. The media should take lessons in democracy from the sophisticated Bihari voters who seem to know the difference between a national election and a state election.

The only time Modi matters again at the booth is in 2019.

Narendra Modi: The Limits of a Political Rock Star
After a soaring 2014, this was the year the Indian prime minister and the BJP fell to earth.
If 2014 was the year that saw Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity soar to an all-time high, events in 2015 underscored rising voter disillusionment. While Modi is still India’s most popular political leader, his government’s disappointing performance over the past year has impacted the electoral fortunes of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Eighteen months after the BJP’s spectacular victory, Modi and the BJP no longer appear invincible....... Two important reform bills – one to streamline India’s federal and state sales tax and the other to facilitate land acquisition – hang in limbo. The government has blamed opposition obstructionism in parliament for blocking the legislation. But it has only itself to blame. Not only did it subject the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government (2004-2014) to similar obstructionism, it has also arrogantly attempted at pushing legislation down the opposition’s throat. ...... the party was routed in the Bihar assembly election........ Close on the heels of that crushing defeat was a setback in elections to local bodies in Gujarat. Here the BJP lost control over rural bodies and the iron-grip it once enjoyed over municipalities weakened. This setback was all the more painful for the party as Gujarat has been its impregnable fortress, with the party having won every election in the state since 2000. Importantly, this is Modi’s home state. ........ and another to provide a bank account for every household to end “financial untouchability.” ........ Economist Rajiv Kumar exulted over India finally having “a ‘real’ prime minister with his hand firmly on the steering wheel.” Modi’s “leading from the front and laying down the behavioral norms, targets and programs, has shored up sagging morale and ostensibly brought new purpose to the government machinery,” he said. ....... Modi’s decisive image stems from the fact that he makes decisions quickly and that is because he makes them on his own, a retired bureaucrat based in Delhi said, adding that Modi is the undisputed boss of the government and the BJP. All decisions related to policy and programs are made by him. Rarely are his ministers consulted or even kept in the loop. Meetings with ministers and BJP parliamentarians are monologues with Modi doing all the talking. Nobody disagrees with him. Or rather they don’t dare air their differences with him. ..... Critics like historian Ramachandra Guha have described the Modi government as “anti-intellectual,” having “absolute contempt for scholars, literature and the arts. It is not contribution to the field but proximity to the Sangh Parivar, a family of Hindu right-wing organizations of which the BJP is a part, that determines appointments to key posts. ....... Most alarming is the Modi government’s failure or rather reluctance to address mounting communal violence being unleashed by members of the Parivar. Churches have been attacked and violence against Muslims has increased. .......

Those inciting communal hatred are not fringe elements but governors, union ministers, chief ministers, parliamentarians – all belonging to the BJP or subscribing to its Hindutva ideology. Their hateful speeches are made in the chambers of the Lok Sabha, in front of television cameras, and at public rallies. Yet they have gone unchecked.

.... Modi’s grand plans for the economy. .... his party’s electoral debacles signal that the Indian voter cannot be taken for granted. The “rock-star” receptions that the Parivar organized for Modi during his visits abroad may have impressed his die-hard fans at home and his cheerleaders among the Indian diaspora, but for millions of voters, mere pledges aren’t enough. ..... Political commentator Shekhar Gupta says that he needs to get out of campaign mode and get down to “calmer, old-fashioned governance.”

रावण या वाल्मिकी: कौन बड़ा सनातनी शैतान?

रावण अपने युगका सबसे बड़ा ज्ञाता था, the most learned man alive. वेद पुराण उसको सब मालुम था, पन्ना पन्ना। इस बातका खुद रामको एहसास था। रावण के सामने वाल्मिकी कुछ नहीं। लेकिन दोनों थे सनातनी। एक ही गैंग के लोग। जैसे भारत के पास थल सेना है, वायु सेना, जल सेना। अलग अलग नहीं है।

सनातनी को आजतक घमंड है कि तुम हमसे जित ही नहीं सकते। पहले तो वो बर्बर आक्रमण कर देता है। जैसे बाघ हरिण को मार देता है। सभ्य लोग वैसा नहीं करते। लेकिन जंगल राज में सब चलता है। वो जो हजारों लाखों भिक्षुओ को किया। जमीन जायदाद के लिए तो नहीं किया। By definition भिक्षु के पास कुछ नहीं होता। तो फिर क्यों? भिक्षु का सबक अहिंसा। तो वो तो सभ्य भाषा हो गयी।

अपहरण। Kidnapping. रावण ने वही तो किया। रावण को इस बात का आश्चर्य हुवा कि सीता वन से सोने के लंका में आ गयी लेकिन खुश नहीं है। इसकी उसने कल्पना नहीं की थी। सीता का राम से स्वयंवर हुवा था। सीता ने खुद पसंद किया था। तो सनातनी worldview में औरत होती है property. गेहुँ का बोरा आप एक कमरे से दुसरे कमरे में ले जाते हो तो गेहुँ से पुछते हो क्या? जितने ऋषि मुनि हैं सबके सब पुरुष ही क्यों? सोंचने वाली बात है।

रावण के ये कल्पना में नहीं था कि राम लंका तक आ भी सकता है। दो भाई हैं। रावण के पास सेना है। युद्ध की कोई संभावना ही नहीं थी। उसने घमंड नहीं किया analysis की। युद्ध में हम हार नहीं सकते। सनातनी कहते।

लेकिन रावण तो हार गया। बुरी तरह। तो सनातनी कहता है, यद्ध में जित गए तो क्या। हम तुम्हें उसके बाद भी हरा सकते हैं। यानि कि हमारे जल सेना को हरा दिए तो क्या अभी थल सेना तो बाँकी है। तो वहाँ वाल्मिकी अपना रोल खेलता है।

वाल्मिकी रामायण अंत तक पढ़ो तो नहीं लगता है राम जिते हैं। सीता ने गलती की। लंका में रहती तो सुख से रहती। अंत तक पढ़ो तो राम लगने लगते हैं विलन। अमरीश पुरी। प्रेम चोपड़ा। शक्ति कपुर। तो वो सनातनी का कहना है, दावा है कि तुम हम से जित ही नहीं सकते। You simply can not win.

तो ये चैलेंज आज के रामभक्त को है। कि क्या ये सही है? कि सनातनी के साथ राम भगवान जित ही नहीं सकते? असंभव?

रावण या वाल्मिकी: कौन बड़ा सनातनी शैतान?

वेद पुराण उपनिषद --- ये सब हुवा Old Testament. ईसाई उस ओल्ड टेस्टामेंट को हटा के फेंक दिए हैं ऐसी बात नहीं है। बाइबल शुरू ही होता है ओल्ड टेस्टामेंट से। तो वेद पुराण उपनिषद को यादव या हरिजन क्लेम नहीं कर सकते या नहीं करना चाहिए ऐसी बात नहीं।

लेकिन शायद हरिजन मुक्ति इस बात में है कि हरिजन क्लेम करें हमारा अपना एक अलग धर्म है। जिस तरह बुद्ध धर्म है, इस्लाम है, उसी तरह हम हरिजनों का अपना एक अलग धर्म है। जिस तरह भारत ने ब्रिटेन को कहा हमारा अपना  देश है।

सनातनी से क्यों नहीं जिता जा सकता? जन और धन का रक्षा आधुनिक राज्य (modern state) की प्रथम जिम्मेवारी होती है। धर्म निरपेक्षता उस आधुनिक राज्य की नींव है। उस धर्म निरपेक्षता के छाते के अंदर सब आ जाते हैं, सब बराबर हैं: सनातनी, यादव, हरिजन, मुहम्मदन, बुद्धिस्ट, ईसाई, सिख।

दलित सबसे ज्यादा राम के इलाके में हैं। आखिर क्यों?

जिस राम के बीवी का अपहरण किया सनातनी ने, जिस राम को युद्ध में परास्त करना चाहा, जिस रामको विलन बना दिया उस सबके बावजुद ---- तो फिर राम मंदिर किसने तोडा? आपको क्या लगता है?

हरे राम हरे कृष्ण।

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

ये क्या हो रहा है? American Style Gridlock?

ऐसे देश १०% तरफ नहीं जाएगी। जिस देशमें इनकम टैक्स ठोस नहीं है वहाँ सरलीकृत सेल्स टैक्स का होना बहुत जरुरी है। Informal sector को भी समेट लेती है।

Indian Politics Thwart Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Tax-Reform Plans For the second time this year, India concludes its Parliament session without legislating a nationwide sales tax
Partisan bickering in India’s Parliament has stalled an important piece of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s economic agenda: a constitutional amendment that would create a simplified nationwide tax system to replace a commerce-stifling patchwork of state levies. .... The winter session of India’s legislature ended Wednesday without a vote on the measure in the upper house, where Mr. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is in the minority, after lawmakers spent weeks trading jabs over graft allegations involving top politicians. .....

“The economy suffers while politics overrides everything.”

..... Facing opposition protests and fearing a rural backlash ahead of the Bihar vote, Mr. Modi in August retreated from legislative efforts to ease India’s strict land-acquisition law and make it easier for the government to get land for industry and infrastructure. ..... The gridlock is the result, in part, of a tit-for-tat strategy by the main opposition Congress party, whose final years in power were marred by protests led by the BJP.

When Congress was in government, the BJP blocked tax legislation similar to what it is now trying to pass.

..... With major plans stymied in Parliament, Mr. Modi has sought to breathe life into the economy through executive actions and other moves, including a plan to revive heavily-indebted power-distribution companies and ease foreign-investment limits in some industries. .... Congress accused Mr. Modi of a political vendetta after the party’s president, Sonia Gandhi, and her son, Rahul, were summoned before a magistrate to answer a complaint alleging cheating and criminal breach of trust. ..... Emerging from court Saturday, Mr. Gandhi said Mr. Modi had encouraged “false allegations” to frighten political rivals. The government said it wasn’t involved in the case. The complaint was filed by politician Subramanian Swamy in 2012. He later joined the BJP. .....

‘Parliament has become a forum less for debate and more to settle political scores.’

—M.R. Madhavan, president of think tank PRS Legislative Research ...... A post on Mr. Kejriwal’s official Twitter account called Mr. Modi a “coward and a psychopath.” The episode spiraled to include corruption allegations by Mr. Kejriwal against BJP Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, who in turn filed a defamation suit against Mr. Kejriwal. ......

These much publicized spats narrowed the space for a political compromise needed to break the logjam on economic policy-making.

..... On the tax amendment, Congress has said it doesn’t support some key provisions. It argues the tax rate should be capped at 18%—and that number must be included explicitly in the constitution—to prevent a creeping increase by future governments...... It also wants to do away with a proposed 1% additional levy designed to help manufacturing states....... Mr. Jaitley said the government is willing to find ways to address Congress’s second demand, but won’t legislate the tax rate so future governments have flexibility.
Five Things to Know About India’s Proposed Goods and Services Tax
India’s government is attempting to reform its messy web of sales taxes to make doing business across the country easier. ........ This complicated web snarls companies in red tape and slows down the transit of goods around the country because of border checks and other official inspections. ...... replace the patchwork of taxes with a single, nationwide sales levy, known as the goods-and-services tax, or GST.

Economists call the move an epochal lowering of commercial barriers.

..... a broad GST would deliver an immediate boost to output of 1% to 2% and lasting gains to productivity. .....

The bill needs the consent of two-thirds of Parliament and half of India’s 29 states.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley wants the new system up and running by April 2016, saying it will “play a transformative role in the way our economy functions.” .......

States with large manufacturing bases have been wary of the GST: Receipts from the new tax would go to states where goods and services are consumed, not where they are produced.

........ The Modi government in December agreed to compensate states for lost revenue during the levy’s first five years, and to let them continue taxing alcohol and petroleum separately. Some experts say these and other possible exemptions would curb the GST’s effectiveness, however. ...... Jaitley told lawmakers on Wednesday that the standardized national rate for GST would be “much more diluted” than the 27% estimated

NDA GA Bipolarization: 30, 20, 50: What India Needs

The original version of General Electric's cir...
The original version of General Electric's circular logo and trademark. The trademark application was filed on July 24, 1899, and registered on September 18, 1900 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
थर्ड फ्रंट तो था ही नहीं। २०१४ में। और राहुल भी उम्मेदवार नहीं थे। सोनिया ने सक्रिय पहल किया। तो बीजेपी को ३०% और काँग्रेस को मिला २०% ---- और दुर दुर तक कोसो तक एक सफ़ेद धुँवा है फैला हुवा जहाँ ५०% मत बिखरे पड़े हैं। वो थर्ड फ्रंट नहीं है। इसी लिए मैंने कहा देशकी राजनीती एक कॉमेट की तरह है। न unipolar, न bipolar, न multipolar. सफेद धुँवा फैला हुवा है। इससे देश को घाटा है। देश के के हित में है कि एक bipolarization हो जाए। लोकतंत्र को अर्थतंत्र को ये चाहिए।

CBI ने जो रेड किया केजरीवाल के ऑफिस में ये तो बहुत बड़ी बात हो गयी। खबर मिल रहा है कि मोदी ने नहीं करवाया। तो ये क्या हुवा? ये तो एक कु हो गया। इससे पहले जिस सक्स को सीबीआई ने तंग किया वो आज प्रधान मंत्री है। उससे पहले जभी लालु को तंग किए। कुछ समय बाद अंक गणित लालु के पक्ष में आ गयी थी। Waste कर दिया गया।

General Electric कंपनी में है १० साल में लीडरशिप चेंज होता है। तो एक प्रक्रिया है एक रश्म है। भारत में कहा जाता है CBI संसद के अधीन है, पाकिस्तान में ISI पैरेलल गवर्नमेंट के तरह है। कहीं भारत में भी वो समस्या तो नहीं। CBI में कोई सेल है जो data crunching करती है और निर्णय करती है अगला बन्दा ये है। बहुत ही गलत बात है। You can't second guess the people like that. Especially, you can't act upon it to try and influence the democratic process.

Grand Alliance की बात शुरू हुवी है बिहार से। वो बात बिहार से बाहर जाती है कि नहीं वो अभी देखना बाँकी है।

सारे देश के सभी चुनाव पाँच साल में एक बार किए जाने की बात हो रही है। वो गलत होगी। लेकिन पाँच साल में दो बार हो तो शायद सही है। केंद्र, राज्य और स्थानीय। ढाई साल में एक ऐतवार को। बुथ पर जाना है।

Ramayana: Rewriting History

English: Deities of Sri Sri Sita-Rama, Lakshma...
English: Deities of Sri Sri Sita-Rama, Lakshmana, Hanuman at Bhaktivedanta Manor temple, in Watford, England. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Valmiki was a Sanatani. He made Ram look bad. Ram's story is unique. नहीं तो जीजस को देखो अकेले पोल पर लटका हुवा है। ईसाइ धर्म में या यहुदी में है की ईश्वर ने पुरुष बनाया और पुरुष ने अपने हड्डी से औरत। तो वहां तो महिला को बराबरी मिलने से रहा। विश्व के प्रमुख धर्मो में सिर्फ राम सीता की कहानी है जहाँ महिला पुरुष बराबर हैं। बल्कि सीता एक स्तर ऊपर। राम दशरथ का पुत्र सीता धरती की पुत्री। राम ने धनुष नहीं उठाया। सीता ने शिव से अनुनय किया कि मैं चाहती हुँ यही धनुष उठाए। राम सीता पर आधारित धर्म में महिला को बराबरी मिलेगी, मिलनी चाहिए। यानि की रामभक्त को दलित बनाना सिर्फ हरिजन नहीं महिला पर भी वार है। सनातनी महिला को जगह नहीं देते। बिलकुल नहीं।

तुलसीदास रामभक्त था। हरिजन। दलित। रामभक्त ने राम को हीरो के रूप में प्रस्तुत किया। वाल्मिकी के संतति आज के नेपाल के विलन हैं। कुछ ही रोज पहले जानकी मंदिर के भितर बुट पहन के घुस गए। एक हिन्दु वो काम कर ही नहीं सकता।

रामभक्त को दलित बना दिया। तो फिर राम मंदिर किसने तोडा? सोंचने वाली बात है।

राम तो बाद में आए। वानर सेना बाद में आई। सीता ने लंका में अपनी रक्षा खुद की। रावण शायद सनातनी शैतान था। कहा भी गया है, he was the most learned man alive. यानि की उस युगका टॉप सनातनी। शैतान। वेद पुराण का ज्ञाता। That makes the Ramayana a feminist story. कि उससे पहले औरत को प्रॉपर्टी की तरह उठा लिया जाता था।

मंदिर तोडा सनातनी ने दोष दे रहे हैं मुसलमान को। सनातनी के बाद कृष्ण के बाद राम के बाद बुद्ध के बाद जीजस  मुहम्मद। सनातनी को कृष्ण से वैर, राम से वैर, बुद्ध से वैर, जीजस से वैर तो फिर मुसलमान से क्यों नहीं होगा वैर? ये डिवाइड and रूल है। यादव और मुसलमान इतने आसानी से मिल जाते हैं। राम मंदिर का तथ्य सामने आया तो यादव, हरिजन और मुसलमान एक जगह आ जायेंगे। सनातनी ये नहीं चाहता।

रावण भी सनातनी, वाल्मीकि भी। अंग्रेज थोड़े कहते हैं हमने कोलोनाइज़ किया। वो कहते हैं हम ने तुम पर उपकार किया। कलम कौन चला रहा है उससे बहुत फर्क पड़ता है।

Why did Tulsidas make changes while rewriting Valmiki's 'Ramayana' as 'Shri Ramcharitmanas'?
Technically speaking, the Ramcharitamanas, or the Kambaramayanam, are all just regional remakes of the original, Valmiki's Ramayana. These might have minor tweaks here and there, but the crux is the same, the story is the same. ..... this is the reason stories like Ramayana when written in various regional languages by Tulsidas, Kamban, Krittivasan, are adapted so as to appeal to the people from the respective regions .... For instance,

in the Ramcharitamanas, there is no mention of Lava Kusa in the Uttara Kanda. When Rama asks Sita to go to the forest, to put to an end the gossip of his subjects, Tulasidas who views Sita as more than a mother and is unable to put her through the tortures of the forest in his version, so he makes Sita call for her Mother, the Earth right away, and Rama, unable to live away from Sita, leaves his mortal body right there.

........ a major deviation from the Valmiki's Ramayana ...... there is this beautiful romanticizing of the Rama-Sita swayamvara in the Kamba Ramayana, where Kamban famously says "Annan-um nokkinaar, aval-um nokkinaal." (Older brother proceeded, she followed suit! (with legs, eyes, multiple meanings) It's a beautiful one-line love-story of Rama-Sita (Kamban always referred to Rama as an older brother in his version), before the actual swayamvara, wherein it talks about how Sita following her glimpse of Rama, prays to Shiva to get Rama to break the Shivdhanush. Small additions like this to the storyline, makes it more beautiful to read, and this is something that is definitely encouraged in literature.
Difference between original ramayan and the ramayan you know
Full text of "Difference between original ramayan and the ramayana you know"
What is difference between tulsidas and valmiki ramayana?
10 Differences Between Ramayana and Ramcharitmanas
Valmiki Ramayana vs. Tulsidas' Ramayana vs. Serials

यादव और कृष्ण, हरिजन और राम: हरे राम हरे कृष्ण

जब हरे राम हरे कृष्ण वाले किसी गोरा को कन्वर्ट करते हैं तो नहीं कहते अब तुम ब्राह्मण हुवे, या वैश्य। कास्ट की बात ही नहीं होती। हिन्दु भी नहीं कहते। Krishna Consciousness.

यादव कृष्ण के संतति। हरिजन राम के भक्त। यादव का कोइ कास्ट नहीं। हरिजन का भी कोइ कास्ट नहीं। उन पर उपर से थोपा गया है। जिस तरह भारत पर विक्टोरिया ने थोप दिया। सनातनी ने हरिजन को दलित बना दिया। Colonized, Oppressed.

तो इस Oppression को ख़त्म करना होगा।

हरे राम हरे कृष्ण एक राजनीतिक कोएलिशन का भी नाम हो सकता है। लेकिन उसके बाद काम ठोस होना चाहिए। सिर्फ दलित नेता या पार्टी को वोट दे के ये Oppression खत्म नहीं होगा। उसके लिए lawmaking, law enforcement, और पाँच स पर जाना होगा। कोइ किसी को मंदिर जाने से रोकता है तो वो जुर्म नहीं है तो जुर्म बनाओ।

सनातनी अपना standalone identity बनाओ और रहो। ब्रिटेन भी एक टापु है।

कास्ट सिस्टम से बड़ा डिवाइड एंड रुल का हथियार विश्व इतिहास में दुसरा कोई बनाया ही नहीं गया। सनातनी सुरज अंग्रेज दीपक।

शायद दलित को ये कहना होगा हम हिन्दु नहीं हरिजन हैं। हमारा अलग धर्म है। हम रामभक्त हैं।

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

The Pendulum Of Democracy, Modi, And India

I feel like people are making too much out of the Bihar election. Chief Minister ka chunav tha, and the best candidate won. The only candidate won. Noone else was even running. The Bihari voter knows the difference between a national election and a state election. The media doesn't know, doesn't care.

In a democracy, the people want to feel like they are boss. And so they balance it out. US mein hi dekh lo, jis party ko White House dete hain, Congress usko nahin dete. If you have the White House, chances are you will not hold the majority of the state houses. It is because the voters are smart. They wish to balance it out.

Precisely because Modi got such a decisive mandate in 2014, he should lose all state elections to 2019. That would not mean he is not performing. I think he has been doing great work. That just means the voters are smart. They want to keep the power and balance it out.

Each state has its own dynamic. One can only hope the best candidate for Chief Minister wins. That is what is good for the country. And the 2014 mandate is supposed to last for five years.

If the Opposition is to keep the Upper House, the only choice is to elevate the debate and discussion in both houses and seek creative solutions and middle grounds. Have robust debates that go beyond posturing and position taking. Debate ke baad fusion karo.

What if the BJP were to lose Uttar Pradesh in 2017? What if Akhilesh wins another term? As long as Modi can give India a robust growth rate, he should do just fine for 2019. But that's a long way away.

Kejriwal And Modi: Not On The Same Plank

I was unhappy when Kejriwal tweeted his attack on Modi calling him names. It was not only not the language of a mature democracy, it also sounded inaccurate. He made it sound like Modi had personally directed the raid. I have not read up on the raid, it's not worth my time. If you feel the CBI has wronged you, go get a lawyer. Manmohan Singh did after he got out of office and was subjected to some kind of inquiry. He asked the court to dismiss it, and the court did. Not that Kejriwal is Manmohan Singh.

Such a comment mars India's image that Modi has worked so hard to cultivate ever since he got into office. He had a purpose. India has beat both China and the United States on FDI this year. Is that something, or is that something? Itna bejod kaam ho raha hai. Thos kaam ho raha hai. 

Kejriwal likes to imagine there is some kind of a personality clash going on between Modi and him: not true. There is no evidence. Yaar, size to dekho. Delhi ka size kya hai?

Kejriwal has a mandate. The mandate is to govern. To govern karo. Kaam karo. Apna political height badhane ke prayas mein desh ke PM ko gaali mat bolo.

Agar Modi mein rajnitik sujhbujh hai to wo aisa raid nahin karvayenge. That is yet another reason to believe he was not personally behind it. Because, it doesn't make any political sense. Bahut ghaate ki baat hai. 

Within minutes of the CBI raid on the Delhi secretariat on 15 December, top government functionaries — those sitting in North Block and South Block — spoke with one another to find out whether the raid had the prior approval of any of them. None of them had any inkling....... Prime Minister Narendra Modi displayed ignorance while Home Minister Rajnath Singh was not in the loop either. The Ministry of Home Affairs asked CBI director Anil Sinha and he justified the raids on procedural and legal grounds.......The collateral damage from the raids was colossal in political terms........ The carefully cultivated image of Modi as a leader who believes in the consensual approach lay shattered as the Opposition attacked his government for being “vindictive” against rivals. As expected, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal used this opportunity to launch one of the worst vituperative attacks on the prime minister and subsequently on Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.

DDCA row: Narendra Modi gets furious when he hears my name, says Arvind Kejriwal
During the session, Kejriwal accused the PM of “unleashing” the CBI on the government and said the recent raid on his principal secretary’s office was an “attack on the federal structure of democracy”.
The PM ordered this raid to protect Jaitley,” alleged Kejriwal ..... Questioning the independence of the CBI as an investigative body, Kejriwal said, “The day CBI becomes independent, it will send a notice to Shivraj Chouhan. It will send a notice to Modi to ask him about the money he got for his coat. Sushma and Vasundhara Raje will get notices, not Rajendra Kumar…” ...... Defending Kumar, Kejriwal said, “Hamare afsar ke locker khali mile aur 12 daaru ki bottles mili. Is world ki sabse badi democracy ke PM raid karwaye aur 12 bottles liquor mile to sharm ki baat hai…(The head of the world’s biggest democracy ordered a raid and only found 12 liquor bottles. This is shameful).” ..... Kejriwal also took a dig at the PM’s foreign trips. “He has nothing to do with the country. He has a big plane with all facilities and stays in five-star hotels… Everything runs smoothly when he is out of the country. The day he returns, the CBI is unleashed on the opposition…,” he said. ..... He also welcomed the defamation case filed by Jaitley against him and his partymen. “We will go to Patiala House on February 5… We will give our explanation and the trial will begin. Jaitley will stand in the witness box and our advocate will cross-examine him. This will go on for a year. They have harmed themselves,” said Kejriwal. ..... The DDCA… deals with sports which is under us,” said Kejriwal.
Target 2019: Kejriwal’s anti-Modi moves are rooted in his ambition
the Delhi chief minister has realised that the space for an anti-establishment leader has started growing again in India. And he is making fast and furious moves to occupy the slot before anyone else becomes the pivot of the anti-BJP politics that could become a rewarding pursuit by 2019. ..... The economy has come to a standstill. Growth forecasts have become sobre and sombre: the latest estimate has been revised downwards to 7-7.5 percent from the previous 8.1-8.5 percent. Reforms are stuck, legislative bills are caught in politics of hostility, jobs are not rising, prices — not the ones reflected on indices of data crunchers but on grocery lists of real people — are going through the roof. There is a general atmosphere of hostility and distrust. Promises of achche din have become a painful memory ..... within a year, unless something dramatic happens, a string of electoral results could change the mood on the ground dramatically. .... The party never had a realistic chance in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, where elections are due next .... In Punjab, the Akali Dal-BJP alliance is facing stiff challenge after ten years of incumbency. ....... the ruling alliance is staring at a drubbing in Punjab that could be more severe than the beating in Delhi. ..... Where is the party winning next? Perhaps Assam, but every other state election appears a tough challenge. ..... For the past few days, Kejriwal has been relentlessly attacking the PM and his finance minister with the hope of becoming the leading anti-Modi voice in the country. By punching well above his weight, just like Modi did as chief minister of Gujarat, he is hoping to become the symbol of anti-establishment by the time the next election is around. ...... Kejriwal can progress in politics only if he wins Punjab, or at least puts up a strong show. It doesn't look easy. ..... In Punjab, Kejriwal is facing the challenge of warding off the might of former chief minister and Congress leader Captain Amarinder Singh. The mood on the ground suggests voters are torn between AAP and a resurgent Congress under Singh. Both have equal chances of replacing the SAD-BJP government. ..... Aware of the challenge and the opportunity, Kejriwal is planning to camp in Punjab for almost six months before the elections, leaving Delhi to his deputy Manish Sisodia. If he wins Punjab, demolishes the Badals and pins down Singh, Kejriwal will immediately fancy himself as a challenger to Modi...... Kejriwal's rise, if it happens, won't be a tragic development for the BJP. It will immediately bring his ambition into conflict with that of Rahul Gandhi, Mulayam Singh,

Nitish Kumar — the current frontrunner —

and other regional aspirants, immediately putting under strain the current index of opposition unity, the biggest threat to Modi after anti-incumbency......

Does this explain the BJP's current eagerness to provoke Kejriwal?

Whenever My Name Is Taken, PM Modi's Blood Boils: Arvind Kejriwal
Speaking at the Delhi assembly as his battle with the Centre reaches a new low, Mr Kejriwal added, "BJP leaders have told me in private, whenever my name is taken, (PM Narendra) Modi's blood boils." ..... Calling the raids a "flop", Mr Kejriwal today said the CBI questioned his principal secretary Rajender Kumar for over 50 hours after 14-hour long raids. "But they have found nothing... The raid was aimed only at helping Arun Jaitley," he said. "What the PM did is quite shameful," he said. ..... Taking the charges head-on, Mr Kejriwal said, "What remains to be seen is that whether the inquiry commission will be annulled by the L-G, who Jaitley says is 'our man'... I appeal to Jaitleyji to cooperate with the inquiry commission."