Showing posts with label mayawati. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mayawati. Show all posts

Monday, May 13, 2019

India 2019: A Fractured Mandate?

the BJP may end up winning 190-210 seats, and the NDA in its current form bagging 220-240 seats....... “This may mean the NDA will have to sign up at least four large regional parties in post-poll alliance to form the government,” the brokerage said. ...... There is a big question mark on what happens to UP ....... “Depending on whom you speak to, you get a range between 20 and 60 seats for the BJP. It really is not very clear.” ...... BJP political party workers on the ground say the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) joining the BJP in a post-poll alliance cannot be ruled out. ...... the BJP has proven to be more adept in making new alliances and keeping old ones, compared with the Congress. ....... despite not being officially part of the UPA, a number of strong regional parties seem ideologically committed towards a non-BJP election outcome

N. Chandrababu Naidu: The maker of tomorrowland Naidu is looking to transform Andhra Pradesh from an agrarian to a tech-driven economy. ...... chief minister of united Andhra Pradesh from 1995 to 2004 was the catalyst that made Hyderabad the wonder that it is today, still clocks 16 hours at work. ...... In 2000, Time magazine named Naidu South Asian of the Year for turning Hyderabad, which it described as “an impoverished, rural backwater place”, into “India’s new information-technology hub”. ...... Amaravati, the capital city of the new state, is being built from scratch on the southern banks of the Krishna river ...... He believes Andhra Pradesh can become the No. 1 state by 2029 in every economic parameter ...... in the past five years his state has achieved an average GDP growth rate of 10.52% ...... Naidu’s vision is to convert a largely agrarian state into a future-focussed, technology driven economy in tune with the needs of the 21st century. ....... he is talking specifically about big data, which lies at the heart of governance in the state. “If one has the right historical and current data, one can predict and execute things much better for individuals and the community because outcomes will be closer to expectations,’’ he says. ...... Real Time Governance Society monitoring centre housed in building No. 1 of the government secretariat in Amaravati. The monitoring centre is straight out of a Hollywood sci-fi film. On one side are giant screens, or dashboards, with constantly flashing images, videos, and data monitored by a few dozen people. These dashboards provide real-time data on the status of government welfare schemes and important government projects; road traffic; deaths, marriages and births in households; first information reports filed at various police stations; and even files signed by officials and ministers. Similar centres are present across the state. ......... “We have linked all the 240 government schemes across 30 departments and created 560,000 combinations, which help us resolve issues and grievances of people on a real-time basis. It is our way of breaking down the silos of various departments and bringing everyone together on the basis of data” ....... On March 1 the government had full data on its 44.9 million citizens across 123 parameters; it had 2,000 video cameras tracking vehicles and traffic violations, 2,000 government officials conversing with 3 million people in the state to solve their grievances and issues. Babu says the government has got 18 million complaints over the past four years. .......... the tech-savvy Naidu ...... Naidu wants the 217 sq. km. Amaravati to set the standards for smart cities in India—a truly global city that will draw top global firms to set up base there. Roads and water supply will be like in Amsterdam; power supply as in Germany and the U.S.; and the “green-blue” city—called so for the 51% green cover and 10% water bodies it will boast—will have storm water management matching that in the U.K. and Malaysia. ........ To overcome the challenge of land acquisition for building Amaravati, the state went in for land pooling. Farmers who gave up their land were offered a 10-year annuity package. “We have made farmers shareholders in the development process in the new capital, without evicting them from their habitations,” says Naidu. The annuity amount will not only increase 10% every year, but farmers will also get back a part—nearly one-third—of the developed land, which they can sell in the next 10 years.......Within two-and-a-half years, land which was selling at ₹10 lakh an acre has begun to fetch ₹2 crore. “So if the farmer decides to sell the developed plot, he can make a lot of money...... “Today 20% to 30% of all mobile phones are being manufactured in AP, I want it to go up to 50% to 60%,” says Naidu. Reliance Industries has announced an electronics park for making mobiles and televisions in Tirupati; electronics manufacturers Foxconn, and TCL Corporation, too, have plans to invest there....... Further south from the banks of the Krishna river are 13 urban plazas, signifying the 13 districts in the state. Means of transport in the city will run on electricity. There will be water-taxis, dedicated tracks for cyclists and well-shaded pavements, encouraging people to walk. The green pockets in the city are modelled on New York’s Central Park and Lutyens’ Delhi....... Amaravati is expected to be built by 2025 and the AP Capital Region, which comprises parts of Guntur, Vijayawada, and Tenali, by 2028.

Chandrababu Naidu Claims Modi Won't Become PM, Asserts Four Surveys Reveal TDP Victory predicted that Modi will never become Prime Minister again ..... He added that a Congress-led coalition is to form the government in the centre.

Mamata Banerjee will play key role, says Chandrababu Naidu On Ms. Banerjee’s request, Mr. Naidu addressed the crowd in Telugu to loud cheers. ...... Kharagpur, which houses the oldest IIT in the country and serves as important hub of South Eastern Railways, has a Telugu population of about 30% 

In a scenario where the BJP-led NDA ends up with 220-230 seats, the Congress-led UPA hovers around 140-150 seats, and the rest of the parties collectively bag about 270-280 seats, it might make sense for that Federal Front to get the pick for Prime Minister, and in that crowd Chandrababu Naidu might be the most capable candidate. That he is not in the running makes it even more attractive. A Federal Front with outside support from the Congress-led UPA might be stable enough.

There seems to be a growing chorus that these are the kinds of numbers India might be looking at. The truth is nobody knows.

Naidu Prime Minister, Mayawati Defense Minister.

In case there is a fractured mandate, many member parties of the NDA and the UPA might ditch those alliances.

But should the NDA end up with something like 230, it will be in a fairly good position to make a mad dash for a few big regional parties like Naveen Patnayak in Orissa, perhaps even Mayawati. Maybe Mayawati wants to become Deputy Prime Minister. Heck, it might even rope in a once NDA partner Chandrababu Naidu, who is focused on staying Chief Minister.

Should the BJP-led NDA end up with something like 220, that would create a scenario where some non-BJP person could rise to the helm. And the best way to elect that person is to follow the simple democratic process. All the MPs would form a pool. And that pool of MPs would engage in two rounds of votes. The highest two vote-getters would go into a second round. And the one who garners a majority of votes would naturally be the leader. That person could be from a party with only 20 MPs. Why not?

The most qualified person would be Naidu. Somebody like Rahul Gandhi would be best as Convenor of the coalition: UPA-4. On this side of the aisle, Naidu is best positioned to give India a double-digit growth rate.

Chandrababu Naidu Reinforces Opposition Unity With Meets in Bengal, Delhi
Opposition meeting likely to be held by Chandrababu Naidu and Rahul Gandhi on May 21

Hypothetical Scenario
Election Results
BJP-led NDA: 220
Congress-led UPA: 140
Non-BJP, non-Congress: 185

The last two come together to form UPA-4. Pool of MPs: 325.

Election for Parliamentary Leader:
First round of votes: Rahul Gandhi: 140 votes, Chandrababu Naidu: 185 votes.
Rahul Gandhi: Convenor of UPA-4
Chandrababu Naidu: Prime Minister of India

Rahul Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee can not see eye to eye. But Naidu can talk to both.

The problem is in the process. Instead of a few leaders saying we will sit together and decide, the steps have to be (1) form the coalition, (2) pool together all MPs of the coalition, and (3) organize an election for parliamentary leader for the coalition with every MP in the pool voting.

Chandrababu Naidu interview: Tried my best to connect Telangana and AP
KCR succeeds where Chandrababu Naidu failed
N Chandrababu Naidu fumes at TD leaders for skipping meets
TDP tech advisor is whistle-blower, not thief: Chandrababu Naidu hits back at EC's charge
Kingmaker sweepstakes: Naidu outfoxes KCR Praising the Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief as a “Bengal tigress”, Naidu claimed she “would act as a kingmaker in the formation of the next government” at the Centre. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief also announced a meeting of 22 Opposition parties in Delhi, likely on May 23 to discuss government formation....... midway through the Lok Sabha elections and amidst speculation of BJP not faring as well at the hustings, KCR started distancing from it while trying to cosy up to regional, secular parties.
Jagan’s padayatra to connect with the people and the TDP government’s struggle to implement farm loan waivers are reminiscent of the 2004 political scenario.
‘Chandrababu Naidu may merge TDP with Congress’
‘Country will get a new PM, under Mamata Banerjee’s leadership’ says Chandrababu Naidu
Will Naidu merge TDP with Congress?
Afraid, nervous Modi speaks his mother tongue: Hatred

Wednesday, May 08, 2019

India 2019: The Suspense

If the BJP-led alliance is at 250 or above, it might be able to still cobble together a majority by pulling in a few parties. But if the tally is closer to 200, that opens up the distinct possibility of the emergence of a new Prime Minister. As to who that new face will be is not at all clear.

The total number of seats is 545. That puts the halfway mark at 273. There are three camps: the BJP-led alliance, the Congress-led alliance, and the unaffiliated, sometimes known as the Federal Front. It is possible the unaffiliated could emerge as the second largest block after the Congress-led alliance and seek the outside support of the Congress-led alliance. As in, the BJP-led alliance could emerge the largest but not the majority block and still have to sit out.

Or Modi could easily hit 300. It is hard to tell.

NDA: 250-300, UPA: 80-120, FF: 160-200. If the Federal Front crosses 200, it might as well claim the top job.

On election results, it is best to keep an open mind One of the great charms of Indian democracy is the power of the silent voters ....... When the counting began for the 2014 election, there was very little expectation that some four hours later India would be witnessing a clear Narendra Modi victory, an event that was subsequently to be described as a ‘wave’. As Prannoy Roy has written in a recent book, even the outcome of the tsunami election of 1984 was largely unanticipated by the pundits........ the larger suspense will persist till the morning of May 23. ....... particularly true of rural women whose voting preferences are often not robustly factored in....... In the Delhi assembly election of 2013, the Aam Aadmi Party made its electoral debut. Its campaign was enthusiastic but not very organized. That was evident on polling day when the AAP’s patchy presence contrasted with the organized approach of both the Congress and the BJP. Yet, AAP performed spectacularly and came within a whisker of upstaging the BJP as the single largest party.......... Modi’s meetings in West Bengal for example have been hugely attended. The numbers attending are also far in excess of what the BJP’s weak organizational apparatus in the state can mobilize. Indeed, the success of these meetings has forced the West Bengal chief minister to organize many more public meetings than she originally planned. In places where the crowds have not matched her expectations, she has followed the meetings with a padayatra....... the raw human emotion of an election is never captured by surveys and exit polls. This is why it is best to approach the morning of May 23 with an open mind.

BJP banks on Bengal Ground reports from three rounds of polling indicate that the party could lose a chunk of the seats it had won in 2014 ...... “We could lose around 50 seats we had won in 2014 in states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Bihar and Jharkhand. However, we are confident of springing a surprise in Bengal, Odisha and also in the Northeast to an extent to offset the losses,” one of the BJP leaders monitoring the party’s election war room in Delhi said...... “We are banking heavily on Bengal and Odisha. If we falter in these states, our tally will come down substantially,” another BJP leader said. “It would be very difficult for us to come close to the majority mark if the showing is not good in Bengal and Odisha,” the leader added....... “Our feedback shows there is a high chance of us winning between 10-15 seats in Bengal and anything between 5-10 seats in Odisha,” a BJP leader said....... The most serious losses are being feared in Uttar Pradesh, owing to the formidable BSP-SP-RLD alliance. ....The BJP has received reports of losses in Maharashtra owing to acute agrarian distress and the Congress-NCP alliance.

Monday, July 11, 2016

BJP's UP Problem

ABP News Opinion Poll: BSP to win 185 seats if UP polls are held now

The BJP had the same problem in Bihar. Nobody was running for Chief Minister.

In 2014 Modi was the only one running to be Prime Minister.

If the BJP loses UP and Gujarat, it has to figure out a way to work without a majority in the upper house.

Anti-incumbency worked against Mayawati last time. This time it might work against Akhilesh.

But 2019 will be about Modi’s performance. If the growth rate has hit 10% he should see victories again in both Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, not to say Gujarat.

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Smriti Irani 1, Mayawati 0

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Uttar Pradesh 2017: Mayawati Deserves A Victory

Uttar Pradesh 2017: Mayawati Deserves A Victory

She seeks no alliance because deep inside she knows she can win this one. By vote share she does lead the third largest party in the country. And, foremost of all, there is an acute need for Dalit liberation in the country. Just like India had to say we are our own country, Harijans will have to say we are our own religion. We do lay claim to the Ved-Puran-Upanishad just like the Christians lay claim to the Old Testament, but we are our own religion, we are not Sanatani, and we are not Hindu, we are Harijan. We worship Ram. Our book is the Tulsidas Ramayana. Ramcharitmanas. We disown the Valmiki Ramayan as a work of slander by a Sanatani Shaitan on par with Ravana. We will build a Ram Temple, but there will be a mosque side by side. We want to co-exist with the Hindus and the Muslims, but we are nobody’s untouchables. We inhabit nobody’s caste system. We will not accept anything less than religious equality. We will outlaw all discriminatory behavior that targets Harijans. We will have the police fight and eliminate caste violence, which will be renamed religious violence. We will empower our community through education, health and entrepreneurship.

The Yadavs are the Krishna people. We Harijans are Ram people. Hare Rama, Hare Krishna. We want to spread the good word globally. And so, we are one with the Hare Rama Hare Krishna mission. We harbor no animosity towards the Yadav community, but democracy thrives on political competition. That is the best way to serve the good people of Uttar Pradesh.

Mayawati is both Harijan and a woman. She has been both in power and opposition. She has also served in Delhi as a MP. And she is in a position to fight caste violence, gender violence, and religious violence at the same time. Just like Nitish ran on a one point law and order plank in 2005, Mayawati’s one point mantra now seems to be Aman Chain, as in, law and order. If she were to elaborate on that and make it specific, she gets the Dalits, the women, and the Muslims. That would be enough to secure her a victory. Law and order really is the agenda item number one. That is the top responsibility of any state anywhere. You deliver on that one, and then you can build development and progress on top of it.

Maybe finally Uttar Pradesh’s time for double digit growth rates has come. She might even hold conversations with Nitish on that one post victory. Law and order kah ke to jit gaye, ab age ka rasta kya hai, jara bolo. Roads and bridges, schools and hospitals, ease of doing business. Waise bhi koi mysterious baat hai nahin. Abhi tak to baat obvious ho gayi hai. Jagah jagah log kar rahe hain. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are India’s heartland, the core of the Hindi belt.

She could rule Uttar Pradesh and act equi-distant to both the National Democratic Alliance and the Grand Alliance at the national level. That is also a valid option. As in, it is very possible for Mayawati to win Uttar Pradesh in 2017, and for Modi to again sweep the state in 2019. As long as the country’s growth rate is north of 10%, I don’t see how he can have a problem.

Her national agenda is not Modi or Nitish. Her national agenda is to organize the Dalits nationally. Uttar Pradesh is only a start.

Lekin pramukh mudda hai ki Harijan ko alag dharm ke rup mein samvidhan mein darj karvao. Just like Yadavs have no caste, Harijans also have no caste. Brahmins are going to have to have a standalone identity, just like the Yadavs and the Harijans. They may not build hierarchies for others. The Bramhin identity is going to have to be a cultural identity. If they disagree, sue them. Take them to court.

Gender violence, caste violence, religious violence. Dial 100 is a good idea. But many more women will have to be recruited into the police force. When an act of gender violence gets reported, the police team that shows up should have at least one female police officer. Riots can be eliminated. There should be an early warning system like for cyclones and tsunamis. Corruption and political interference have to be rooted out from law enforcement. Fast track courts have to be put in place like in Bihar. Maybe Uttar Pradesh will put 150,000 petty criminals behind bars in UP.

Dalits will have to get organized before they can be liberated, and Mayawati’s BSP is the best vehicle for that organization work nationally. Majlis might also make inroads among Muslims nationally if they toned down the rhetoric a little, and if they can show good governance in some major city and also some state. Ultimately it is about governance. You have to show you can put together an appealing political platform, then that you can build an organization and a political campaign that wins you a mandate, and once you get it that you govern, you deliver on the promises. The Majlis president has performed very well in the national parliament, but I don’t see the Majlis governing anywhere. There is work to do. Ironically, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have lots and lots of Muslims, and there people like Laloo, Nitish, Mulayam and Mayawati are eating the cake. They are not leaving much room for Majlis. Because Majlis has no governance track record in their own home territory. They are a rhetoric party so far. Harijan ke tarah Musalman ko bhi age aana hoga. Hindu ke saath per capita income parity lena hoga. Employment aur housing mein discrimination fight karna hoga. Uske liye lawmaking ki jaroorat hai.

BJP mein Modi ka leadership socially uplifting hai. The BJP could also be competing for both Dalit and Muslim votes. Why not?

Sunday, December 27, 2015

Opposition Ki Jaroorat

Opposition Ki Jaroorat

Bharat ke rajniti ko do cheej ki sakht jarrorat hai. Ek ki paanch sal mein sirf do deen chunav ho. Yani national, state aur local election sirf us do deen honge. Ravivar ko, chhutti ke din. Taki log booth par asani se jaa sake.

Ek wo, aur dusra desh ke rajniti ka bi-polarization. Mera Modi se man ub gaya wo main nahin kah raha. Actually, I am more excited about Modi now than I was about a year ago. Ek sal pahle to sirf promise tha, kam to kuchh dikha nahin tha. Ab to maine kaam bhi dekh liya. Bahut thos kam kar rahe hain. Lekin Modi ka bhavishy nirnay karne wala main kaun hota? Modi ko banaya bharat ki janata ne. Modi ko tikayega bharat ki janata. Main to us equation mein hun nahin.

Lekin desh ke rajniti ko polarization chahiye. Ek hai National Democratic Alliance. Aur us mein jarrorat se jyada alliance partner hain wasi baat nahin. Balki jitne chahiye satta mein tike rahne ke liye, usse kahin kam hain. Dusra pole hai Grand Alliance. Wo abhi Bihar mein shuru huwa hai. Usko national banana desh ke liye bahut jaroori hai.

Bijli nikalne ke liye koyala jab jalate ho, to kitne heat ka bijli banta hai aur kitna heat exhaust ke raste jaa ke waste ho jata hai? Percentage kya hai? Bigya jara enlighten karo. To wahi baat hai. 2014 ke chunav mein 30% BJP ko mat mila. Uske adhar pe akele usne bahumat le aaya. 20% Congress ko. Lekin uske adhar pe wo Opposition ka jagah bhi nahin bana payi. Yani ki wo exhaust mein chala gaya vote. Aur banki 50% to total waste. Yani ki abhi Bharat ke loktantr naam ka jo diesel engine hai, uska efficiency hai sirf 30%. Tees percent se bijli nikal raha hai, banki 70% waste mein jaa rahi hai.

Bipolarization ho jati hai, to NDA ka bhi size shayad badhega. To NDA aur GA. Tab efficiency almost 100% par pahunch jayegi. Yani ki 55% la ke koi sarkar banayega. Aur 45% ka opposition.

Lekin usko shayad 100% nahin kaha ja sakta. Vote kitne ne diye? 60% ne. To abhi efficiency 30% nahin hai, abhi 15% par hai. Bipolarization ke baad wo pahunch jayega 60% par. Yani ki 60% heat ka bijli niklega, banki gaya exhaust pipe se bahar.

To bipolarization BJP aur Modi ke liye bhi achhi baat hogi. A superior democracy will spring forth a superior economy. Aur Modi ka total focus hai economy.

Modi ka total focus hai economy. Wo unka strength bhi hai aur weakness bhi. Social issues par wo nadarad rahte hain. Bharat mein BJP aur America mein Republican Party kuchh milte julte hain. Pratyek desh mein ek political spectrum hota hai, extreme left se extreme right tak. Adhikansh log center mein hote hain. Sarkare adhiakansh waise log banate hain jinka bichar centrist ho. To Modi khud centrist hain. Lekin BJP ka jo tent hai, usmein center se le ke right se le ke far right se le ke kucch extreme right tatwa bhi hain. Modi khud na far right hain, na extreme right. Agar hote to main pasand nahin karta. Aur main bade gaur se dekh raha hoon. Hindu hone ka pride hai, aur hona bhi chahiye. Lekin auro ke prati ghrina nahin hai dil mein. Kamsekam mere direct observation mein abhi tak mere ko ek bhi waisa evidence nahin mila.

Lekin tent bada hai. Ek kah sakte ho aadmi kamjor hai. Apne hi tent ke logon ko thikane nahin laga sakta. Dusra perspective ye ho sakta hai ki ye aadmi kamjor nahin hai ki ye ek aise desh ka Pradhan Mantri hai jo duniya ka sabse bada loktantr hai. Bharat: loktantr ki janani bhumi hai. Loktantr British ne upahar nahin diya. Duniya ka pahla ganatantr Buddha ne sthapit kiya. Sanatani shaitano ne ujad ke fek diya, wo alag baat hai. Bandar. Monkey.

To loktantr mein kya hota hai ki jo galat bolta hai usko bhi bolne ka adhikar hota hai. Free speech. To ye to achhi baat hai ki desh ka pradhan mantri kisi ki bolti band nahin kar sakta. That is what we want.

To wahan par kami dikhi Opposition ki. Ki log jab galat bolte hain, to uske biruddh aap kyon nahin bolte? Wo to PM ka nahin Opposition ka kaam hai. Laloo aur Nitish ka kaam hai. National economy par top level ka kaam ho raha hai. Modi is a gift to India. Par social issues par space hai Opposition ke liye. BJP ke tent ke under aise log hain jinko democratic counter karne ki jaroorat hai. Kabhi love jihad, to kabhi ghar wapasi. Hote hote dadri. To us space mein Grand Alliance nirnayak role khel sakti hai.

Yani ki agar desh mein intolerance badha hai, jaisa ki kaha jata hai, to uski jimmedari Opposition ko leni padegi. Agar aap is tarah bikhre na hote to far right ke logon ki himmat patli ho jati. To aap is tarah jo bikhre pade hain, usse desh mein far right ko jaroorat se jyada jagah mil raha hai. The opposition is responsible.

Speech aur peaceful political action ----- loktantr mein ye allow hai. Shantipurvak aap sangathit ho sakte hain. Shantipurvak aap rajnitik karyakram kar sakte ho. Wo adhikar far right ko bhi hai, far left ko bhi, center left ko bhi.

Violence to na social issue hai, na political issue hai. Violence is and should be illegal, and the law should be strictly enforced. Murder ke biruddh to law hai. Hate crime ke biruddh law hai ki nahin? Nahin hai to banao. Law enforcement ko sirf din dahade murder hi nahin, domestic violence, caste violence, aur religious riots ko bhi tackle karna hoga. Us kabil banaya jana chahiye. Kaun kisko mar raha hai hame us se matlab nahin. Ham mardhar hone nahin denge. Hame sirf usse matlab hai. Law enforcement ka wo attitude hona chahiye. A riots-free India is possible. Tsunami/typhoon ke liye jis tarah early warning system hota hai, usi tarah desh bhar mein riots ke liye early warning system hone chahiye. Ki haan, yahan lag raha hai sthiti bigar ke riot ke taraf chali jayegi, to baat wahan tak pahunchne se pahle force ko wahan par pahunch jana hai. Jo karna hai so karna hai.

Law and order to first priority hai. Nitish ko log credit de dete hain. Ye kiya, wo kiya, Bihar mein bikas kiya. Are, unhone to sirf law and order take care kiya. Bikas to apne aap ho gayi. Pahle wo Sushasan Babu bane uske baad hi Bikashpurush banne ka mauka mila.

To desh bhar mein violence ko secular kism se tackle karna hai. Yani ki domestic violence ho ya caste violence ho ya phir religious violence: zero tolerance. Jaan aur dhan ki suraksha adhunik rajya (modern state) ka pratham aur sabse pramukh jimmewari hai. To wo capacity building ek pramukh rajnitik mudda hai. National, state aur local sab level par.

Grand Alliance ko ek national rup dena hoga. Aur social issues par bahut jyada space hai jo cover kiya ja sakta hai. Jaise ki Dalit liberation, wo to Mayawati ko hi karna hoga. Kaun karega? Bharat ka liberation to Gandhi aur Nehru aur Patel ko hi karna pada ki nahin? Ki koi Germany ya France se aa ke kar diya?

Ek democratic structure bana do to koi lafda nahin hota ki kaun neta banega, kya hoga. Vote kar do. Ho gaya nirnay.

Dalit liberation ka rasta Bharat liberation se fark nahin hai. Ki hum hain Harijan. Hamara naam Dalit nahin. Wo hamara abhi ka political status hai jise hum khatm karenge. Hamara apna ek alag dharm hai. Hum Rambhakt hain. Jis tarah Old Testament sirf Yahudi ka nahin Isai ka bhi, usi tarah Ved Puran Upanishad hamara bhi, lekin hamara pramukh granth hai Tulsidas ka Ramayana. Ramcharitmanas. Jis tarah Muslman ka apna alag dharm, Buddhist ka apna alag dharm, usi tarah Harijan ka bhi apna alag dharm. Ravana bhi Sanatani Shaitan, Valmiki bhi Sanatani Shaitan. Mandir toda Sanatani Shaitan ne, dosh de rahe Musalman ko. Harijan Muslim ko divide and rule.

Laoo, ya Nitish, ya Akhilesh, ya Mulayam, ya Modi koi aa ke liberate karne wala nahin. Liberation ko khud ka kaam hota hai.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

यादव और कृष्ण, हरिजन और राम: हरे राम हरे कृष्ण

जब हरे राम हरे कृष्ण वाले किसी गोरा को कन्वर्ट करते हैं तो नहीं कहते अब तुम ब्राह्मण हुवे, या वैश्य। कास्ट की बात ही नहीं होती। हिन्दु भी नहीं कहते। Krishna Consciousness.

यादव कृष्ण के संतति। हरिजन राम के भक्त। यादव का कोइ कास्ट नहीं। हरिजन का भी कोइ कास्ट नहीं। उन पर उपर से थोपा गया है। जिस तरह भारत पर विक्टोरिया ने थोप दिया। सनातनी ने हरिजन को दलित बना दिया। Colonized, Oppressed.

तो इस Oppression को ख़त्म करना होगा।

हरे राम हरे कृष्ण एक राजनीतिक कोएलिशन का भी नाम हो सकता है। लेकिन उसके बाद काम ठोस होना चाहिए। सिर्फ दलित नेता या पार्टी को वोट दे के ये Oppression खत्म नहीं होगा। उसके लिए lawmaking, law enforcement, और पाँच स पर जाना होगा। कोइ किसी को मंदिर जाने से रोकता है तो वो जुर्म नहीं है तो जुर्म बनाओ।

सनातनी अपना standalone identity बनाओ और रहो। ब्रिटेन भी एक टापु है।

कास्ट सिस्टम से बड़ा डिवाइड एंड रुल का हथियार विश्व इतिहास में दुसरा कोई बनाया ही नहीं गया। सनातनी सुरज अंग्रेज दीपक।

शायद दलित को ये कहना होगा हम हिन्दु नहीं हरिजन हैं। हमारा अलग धर्म है। हम रामभक्त हैं।

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

बीजेपी, उत्तर प्रदेश और २०१७

बिहार में बीजेपी हारा नहीं बल्कि नीतिश जीते हैं। २०१४ में भी बिहार में नीतिश हारे नहीं बल्कि बिहार के जनता ने उनको स्पष्ट कह दिया आपको पटना तो छोड़ना ही नहीं है। आप जो काम कर रहे हैं वो दुसरा करेगा कौन?

लेकिन अखिलेश नीतिश नहीं हैं। नीतिश का विकास का ट्रैक रेकॉर्ड stellar रहा है।

मायावती कोई ग्रैंड अलायन्स में आ जाए वो संभव नहीं दिखता। उनको तो लग रहा है मोदी दिल्ली में और अखिलेश लखनऊ में --- दोनों से जनता जब उब जाए तो जाना कहाँ? तो वो अपना झोली पसारेंगी। विकास का कोइ रेकॉर्ड तो है नहीं। अम्बेडकर तो गांधी लेवल के लोग। उनका statue बनाओ। खांसीराम तक ठीक है। लेकिन ये तो खुदकी statue बनवाने लगी।

लालु और नीतिश का तो कोइ presence है नहीं युपी में। मुलायम तो कतरा के भाग गए। नीतिश ने पहल किया, कि आप नेता बन जाओ। तो मुलायाम को लगा कह रहे हैं, आप बिल्ली मोदी शेर जाओ कुद जाओ मैदान में। तो वो अपना चालाकी से खिसक लिए।

कमसेकम चार खेमें तो रहेंगे। मायावती एक तरफ, अखिलेश एक तरफ, बीजेपी एक तरफ, अन्य एक तरफ। बीजेपी शायद २०१४ के तरह स्वीप न दे लेकिन फिर भी बीजेपी का पलड़ा अभी भारी है। फिर अभी वक्त भी तो है। काम करके दिखाने के लिए अभी वक्त है।

लेकिन मुद्दा विकासका होना चाहिए, सिर्फ विकासका।

Uttar Pradesh 2017 will be do or die for Modi.

Banaarasi Modi Ki Najar Mission UP 2017 Par
State BJP wants a CM nominee for #UP2017. Will Modi, Amit Shah oblige?
Modi might have lost UP elections already
In Bihar, the BJP was at least in the race to the throne, but Uttar Pradesh may not be so merciful.
Apparently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi sleeps just four hours a day. .....

LS 2014 saw the rise of Narendra Modi into a political rock star, Bihar 2015 saw the rise of his possible nemesis.

..... UPites love politics; it's their favourite pastime gossip. Even during the not-so-newsy days they are never short of topics to discuss it. And I say this for general UPites, not any more-politically-aware class; because there is no such class that enjoys politics less than the other. Even amid the Diwali fervour, Bihar results retain the top spot among the most happening conversations. More than who won, it is the who-lost-Bihar point which is discussed. Such chatter is usually inconclusive, but in a state where people wear their political opinions on their sleeves, it gives a clue of what the UP elections, due in 2017, may hold for the BJP. ....... In LS polls, BJP's vote share in the state was 42 per cent. It was a substantial increase from the last state Assembly elections in 2012 when the party got a mere 15 per cent votes. In an SP, BSP stronghold where BJP hasn't been in power for the last 20 years, it is a fairly impressive number. ........

In UP, the general feeling is that voters have been disillusioned by the BJP.

BSP and SP have upped their game which changes things further. Whether BJP fights UP with Modi at helm or not, the challenges at hand would be different this time. And it would be true for forthcoming state elections as well as the big one in 2019. ........ The Akhilesh government has sped up the work on all the major developmental programmes. With a massive ad campaign, strong social media presence, and sacking of eight non-performing ministers he has also undertaken an image makeover exercise. ...... Another advantage these parties have is strong leadership at state level, as well as district and city levels, an advantage the BJP doesn't have. ..... SP and BSP have a loyal voter base in Yadavs, Muslims, and Dalits which form more than 40 per cent of UP's population. .... 2017 may be a tough fight between BSP and SP. In Bihar, the BJP was at least in the race to the throne but UP may not be so merciful.
Buoyed by Bihar, Congress warns SP, BSP: In 2017 UP assembly elections, will target you
Congress launched a direct attack on Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav and BSP chief Mayawati accusing them of trying to serve the agenda of BJP and PM Narendra Modi
A senior leader said that aggressive attack by party vice-president Rahul Gandhi on Narendra Modi government gave such results in Bihar and has raised the morale of party workers across UP. He said the party is now expecting to be in a fighting position against the SP and BSP in 2017 UP polls. ...... Congress MLA from Marihan in Mirzapur district, Lalitesh Pati Tripathi said, “RJD chief Lalu Prasad has announced to visit PM’s constituency Varanasi after Chhath puja to expose the development that has taken place so far in the NDA rule. Congress workers have decided to welcome him in Varanasi and take him on a tour of city to show him the real condition”.

In fight against BJP, Lalu to strengthen SP in 2017
Lalu Prasad will be campaigning for the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led party for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls in 2017.
WHILE THE Samajwadi Party is said to be reconsidering to unite with the Mahagathbandhan after its landslide victory in Bihar polls, Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad will be campaigning for the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led party for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls in 2017. ...... Lalu has already announced to visit Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Lok Sabha constituency Varanasi next month “where he would search with the help of his ‘lantern’ (RJD symbol) the development promised” during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls”. Besides undertaking a tour of the city as well as Jayapur village — adopted by PM under the Sansad Adarsh Gram Yojana – Lalu will also address a public meeting there. The Congress, too, has announced to give a warm welcome to Lalu in Varanasi. ......... The party’s Uttar Pradesh unit, that had been sidelined for the past several years, got a major morale boost after the Bihar poll victory. “Bihar results proved that Lalu ji has acceptability among the masses. We are going to turn it into a wave against BJP across the country. It will begin from UP where the party will work to strengthen SP in 2017 Assembly polls,” said Ashok Singh. ....... SP leader Shivpal Yadav has said that they would welcome the the RJD chief here as a ‘samdhi’ (relative).
Bihar Verdict: Patch-up in sight as RJD extends hand to Samajwadi Party in UP
Lalu has already announced he will visit Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s constituency of Varanasi, UP, next month to “expose the reality” of what change has happened after Modi’s 2014 Lok Sabha victory.
Bihar polls impact on Uttar Pradesh: Samajwadi Party wants to ‘forget past’, work with Grand Alliance
Mulayam and Shivpal called up Nitish and Lalu to congratulate them on their victory while Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav extended greetings on Twitter.

No chance of a UP grand alliance: It will be a BJP-BSP contest in the 2017 state polls
Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati has predictably shot down chief minister Akhilesh Yadav's trial balloon of a mahagathbandhan to take on the BJP in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. ..... Though politics is known as the art of impossible, to expect Mayawati and Mulayam Singh to contest the election together would have been equivalent to the naiveté of imagining a snake and mongoose playing together. Mayawati is known for her ego and ambition, Mulayam Singh is infamous for his betrayals, backstabbing and even bigger ego and ambition; both of them depend largely on the same vote bank and fancy their chances of winning the next election on their own. No, Mayawati is the west of Lucknow politics, Mulayam its east and the twain would have never come together. ........ One, the Congress is likely to be wiped out and reduced to a non-entity; two, the Samajwadi Party will lose a huge chunk of votes; and, three,

the real fight would be between the BJP and the BSP.

...... a Congress-mukt election harms the BJP. ...... By now, the BJP must have realised that it does well in UP only when Hindu voters are polarised and there is confusion among Muslim voters, leading to their division. ..... With the SP facing anti-incumbency and the state's nearly 20 percent minorities having tasted the fruits of tactical voting in Bihar, the BSP's support base is likely to widen and that of the SP is expected to shrink in 2017, making Mayawati the face of the anti-BJP campaign. ...... In 2007, Mayawati had managed to win over the Brahmins of UP, considered to be around 10 percent of the electorate. If she manages to once again become the leader of sarv samaj (Muslims, Dalits and Brahmins), instead of remaining the supremo of just the Bahujan Samaj, Mayawati could turn out to be the Nitish Kumar of UP, even without a mahagathbandhan.
UP elections: After Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar, Congress enters Prashant Kishor's fan club
Kishor has been sounded out for campaigns in Bengal (Trinamool), Tamil Nadu (AIADMK) and Assam (Congress) as well but the UP assignment for Congress is for him the most important decision. ...... Kishor is well aware that the "road to 2019 (the next general election) runs through 2017 (when UP assembly polls are due)". "He (Kishor) knows

the party that wins UP in 2017 will have a huge advantage in 2019"

..... Kishor, however, is likely to face a job considerably tougher than the 2012 Gujarat victory for Modi or the 2014 Modi assignment for the general election or the 2015 Nitish assignment. ...... unlike in Bihar, Congress doesn't plan to play second or third fiddle to satraps in UP. The state in 2017 is likely to see a 4-cornered contest between BJP, Congress, SP and BSP. ..... UP's political observers consider Congress to be the weakest of the four contestants. Kishor, therefore, will have arguably his toughest challenge so far because both Modi in 2014 and Nitish in 2015 had certain advantages that could be exploited. ...... "Prashant has his own way of working and has little patience with intrigue and politicking. With Modi, he had direct access, same with Nitish and Lalu. He doesn't deal with gatekeepers"

Countdown for 2017 begins in U.P.
Over the last few months he has also come out from under the shadow of his father, SP chief Mulayam Singh and his uncles Shivpal Singh and Ram Gopal Yadav and according to officials in the Shastri Bhavan secretariat from where his government is run, far more assertive than he was in 2012-13.
Top parties begin electoral strategies for 2017 UP polls
Uttar Pradesh assembly polls is more than 15 months away from now ..... February 2017 ..... If Bihar returns Kumar and backs Laloo, Mulayam is confident of returning to a nation-wide grand alliance against prime minister Narendra Modi. After all, if backwards do not side with the BJP in Bihar, Samajwadis feel they too will have a chance to keep UP for another five years. ........

The BJP in Uttar Pradesh is working rapidly on ground. It goes to the credit of party’s national president that BJP cadre throughout Uttar Pradesh is confident of forming its government in 2017.

The communal tension and sporadic violence in some district may be coincidental but contributing favourably to the BJP....... at the time of country’s independence, Mahatma Gandhi was walking barefooted village after village in Noakhali district of Bengal, in a hostile atmosphere created by riots, making people to take a pledge not to kill others. He carried holy books, appealing to Hindus as well as Muslims, to ensure peace. There was a moving incident at one village. Gandhi visited that village. He asked the Hindus and Muslims to come out of their hutments for a common prayer and a common pledge for peace. No elderly person turned up. He waited for half an hour, not even one Hindu or Muslim turned up. Gandhiji was very ingenious. He had carried a ball with him and then addressing children from the village he said: “Small kids from this village, your parents are frightened of each other but what fright you can have? Elderly Hindus and Muslims might be frightened of one another. But children are innocent. You are children of God. I am inviting you to play the game of ball.” The Hindu and Muslim children started moving towards the dais where Gandhi was sitting. Gandhi threw the ball at them. Boys and girls threw it back. He played for half an hour and then he told the villagers: “You have no courage but if you want that courage, induct it from your children.”

Monday, July 14, 2014

Nitish, Laloo, Mayawati, Mulayam, Mamata, Left Coming Together

It is precisely the spectacular victory of the Modi-led BJP that has prepared grounds for the coming together of forces that did not see eye to eye for a long time, such is the emergent political arithmetic. Nitish and Laloo will come together in Bihar. Congress and the Left will join that bandwagon. Mayawati and Mulayam show no signs of seeing the writing on the wall. Mamata is strong on her own, but is observant of the fact that the BJP has displaced the Left as the principle local opposition.

Uttar Pradesh might be the trickiest. Right now the BJP is positioned to form the next state government. But the Bihar state elections will be held before the Uttar Pradesh state elections. And so UP has more time on its hands.

Nitish is obviously not finished yet.

Patnaik in Orissa and Jayalalita are already in good shape as it is.

Uttar Pradesh is the trickiest because Mulayam and Mayawati do not have what Nitish does, which is the development mantra. And without the development mantra you can't beat Modi just with alliance making.

Wednesday, July 09, 2014

You Can Not Beat Modi Just By Building Alliances

English: The temple at Modinagar, Ghaziabad di...
English: The temple at Modinagar, Ghaziabad district, Uttar Pradesh (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Nitish has a great record on development. He can compete with Modi. He was an excellent Chief Minister, and Laloo was an excellent Railways Minister. If they come together, they can give Modi competition.

But Uttar Pradesh is not the same. There not only Mayawati and Mulayam don't have a development record, they are nowhere close to even talking, let alone seeing an alliance's need. Political arithmetic might suggest a Mayawati-Mulayam alliance would trounce Modi. But that is like when Microsoft and Yahoo ganged up to take on Google. It did not quite work out. Google's share did not diminish. In fact it ended up with even more users in the aftermath. You compete with Google on the quality of your search results not by building alliances.

The way to beat Modi is with development. Alliances are secondary, though important. Modi, in his historic victory, might have prepared ground for the unthinkable: the coming together of the Left and Mamata in West Bengal, Nitish and Laloo in Bihar, and Mayawati and Mulayam in Uttar Pradesh.

Nitish has to take the lead for all three states on the development front. Otherwise it will be a Modi juggernaut all the way.

Friday, June 20, 2014

Bihar, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh

Uttar Pradesh small
Uttar Pradesh small (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The BJP's spectacular victory in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, and its dramatic rise in West Bengal to become the second largest party also makes room for anti-BJP alliances among former arc rivals. For example, Laoo and Nitish in Bihar. Mayawati and Mulayam in Uttar Pradesh. Mamata and the Left in West Bengal.

A Nitish-Laloo-Congress alliance in Bihar would rout the BJP in Bihar in the 2015 elections.

Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad Yadav to extend Rajya Sabha friendship to state polls
Believe it or not! BJP turns unifier for Mamata Banerjee and Left too

Saturday, June 07, 2014

The Federal Front Is A Great Idea

English: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Baner...
English: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee attends a news conference in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata September 7, 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

If and when Modi's time is up, it will be someone from the Federal Front who will take over. That is what I foresee. And so step one perhaps is a Federal Front leading the opposition.

Trinamool Congress 34
Biju Janata Dal 20

That alone is 91.

Telangana Rashtra Samiti 11

That takes it past 100, which is double whatever the Congress can muster.

Credit goes to Mamata for coining the term.

There is a real role in the Upper House for this Front.

The BJP grew almost entirely at the expense of the Congress. The BJP did not eat much into the votes of the non-Congress, non-BJP parties which together get as many votes as the Congress and the BJP combined. That is grounds for a pre-poll formal, structured alliance.

You broker peace between Mulayam and Mayawati and you get Uttar Pradesh, you broker peace between Nitish and Laloo and you get Bihar. Delhi goes to whoever gets the Hindi heartland.

But right now my bet is the BJP will also form the state government in Uttar Pradesh in a few years. Bihar, I don't know. I don't know what Nitish has on his mind. I think he would like to fight solo and sweep Bihar like his colleagues Mamata, Jayalalita and Patnaik.

Regional parties may form ‘federal front’, isolate Congress in Parliament
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