Showing posts with label Laloo Yadav. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Laloo Yadav. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

India And Reforms



When Indira Gandhi nationalized banks across India, she called it reforms. When Ronald Reagan orchestrated large scale privatizations across sectors of the US economy, he called it reforms. I guess you want to be seen reforming.

In Germany, they have this concept of lifelong employment. You go to work for a company early in your life, and you stay with that company for much of your working life. And Germany is a top performing economy. It beats the US economy by a wider margin than does the Chinese economy.

There are people who argue for US-style hire and fire policies in India. They call it labor reform. That hire and fire can work. But in India, for many people, or maybe most, if you get fired, you face a certain financial cliff. You might not be able to go grocery shopping in a week. In such a scenario hire and fire might be a catastrophe.

In Japan also they have this concept of lifelong employment. I am not arguing for it. All I am saying is there is no magic pill. Too many people argue if only India were to put in place easy hire and fire, the economy would rocket past the Chinese economy. Not true. Stop looking for magic pills.

A great Indian example was Indian Railways when Laloo Yadav was Railway Minister. Indian Railways is state owned. It is the largest employer in the world. And rule number one for Laloo was, do not fire anyone as we attempt to increase our revenues and profits. Rule number two was, do not raise railway ticket prices. Because "I am a man of the people." Within those two parameters, Laloo managed to usher bumper profits. He managed to slash prices on railway tickets.

So it is not true state-owned companies are always a bad idea. When Modi was Chief Minister of Gujrat he did not nationalize a single state-owned company in his state. Instead, he granted each of them autonomy. The major thing he did was he brought political interference to a halt. They all became profitable.

State-owned companies can work. Private companies can work. Collect data. Assess data. Engage in evidence-based decision making. Do not blindly follow this or that ideology. The proof has to be in the pudding.

When Laloo took over Indian Railways that was in the red, the number one piece of advice was, fire a bunch of people. If you want to turn a profit, fire a bunch of people. Indian Railways is "bloated," he was told. But Laloo knew better. I can not fire people, Laloo said. "I am a man of the people."

He turned Indian Railways around.

Another buzz phrase is land reform. Basically, the idea is it should be much easier for industrialists to buy land. Maybe the idea does not work in India. You are mostly talking about small farmers. That small piece of land is their entire world. They depend on it for their basic food. It is not that they are against industrialization, but what will they eat the day after?

Land pooling is a better idea. You turn those landowners into shareholders in your proposed company. Why will you not look at alternate ideas like these? Chandrababu Naidu successfully implemented that idea as he started work on his dream city Amaravati. And the farmers who participated are happy. Akhilesh Yadav used something similar as he acquired land for the Delhi Lucknow expressway.

The very phrase land acquisition is problematic. It sounds like robbery. Land pooling is a friendlier phrase.






Sunday, March 06, 2016

Laloo And Biju

Sunday, December 27, 2015

Opposition Ki Jaroorat



Opposition Ki Jaroorat

Bharat ke rajniti ko do cheej ki sakht jarrorat hai. Ek ki paanch sal mein sirf do deen chunav ho. Yani national, state aur local election sirf us do deen honge. Ravivar ko, chhutti ke din. Taki log booth par asani se jaa sake.

Ek wo, aur dusra desh ke rajniti ka bi-polarization. Mera Modi se man ub gaya wo main nahin kah raha. Actually, I am more excited about Modi now than I was about a year ago. Ek sal pahle to sirf promise tha, kam to kuchh dikha nahin tha. Ab to maine kaam bhi dekh liya. Bahut thos kam kar rahe hain. Lekin Modi ka bhavishy nirnay karne wala main kaun hota? Modi ko banaya bharat ki janata ne. Modi ko tikayega bharat ki janata. Main to us equation mein hun nahin.

Lekin desh ke rajniti ko polarization chahiye. Ek hai National Democratic Alliance. Aur us mein jarrorat se jyada alliance partner hain wasi baat nahin. Balki jitne chahiye satta mein tike rahne ke liye, usse kahin kam hain. Dusra pole hai Grand Alliance. Wo abhi Bihar mein shuru huwa hai. Usko national banana desh ke liye bahut jaroori hai.

Bijli nikalne ke liye koyala jab jalate ho, to kitne heat ka bijli banta hai aur kitna heat exhaust ke raste jaa ke waste ho jata hai? Percentage kya hai? Bigya jara enlighten karo. To wahi baat hai. 2014 ke chunav mein 30% BJP ko mat mila. Uske adhar pe akele usne bahumat le aaya. 20% Congress ko. Lekin uske adhar pe wo Opposition ka jagah bhi nahin bana payi. Yani ki wo exhaust mein chala gaya vote. Aur banki 50% to total waste. Yani ki abhi Bharat ke loktantr naam ka jo diesel engine hai, uska efficiency hai sirf 30%. Tees percent se bijli nikal raha hai, banki 70% waste mein jaa rahi hai.

Bipolarization ho jati hai, to NDA ka bhi size shayad badhega. To NDA aur GA. Tab efficiency almost 100% par pahunch jayegi. Yani ki 55% la ke koi sarkar banayega. Aur 45% ka opposition.

Lekin usko shayad 100% nahin kaha ja sakta. Vote kitne ne diye? 60% ne. To abhi efficiency 30% nahin hai, abhi 15% par hai. Bipolarization ke baad wo pahunch jayega 60% par. Yani ki 60% heat ka bijli niklega, banki gaya exhaust pipe se bahar.

To bipolarization BJP aur Modi ke liye bhi achhi baat hogi. A superior democracy will spring forth a superior economy. Aur Modi ka total focus hai economy.

Modi ka total focus hai economy. Wo unka strength bhi hai aur weakness bhi. Social issues par wo nadarad rahte hain. Bharat mein BJP aur America mein Republican Party kuchh milte julte hain. Pratyek desh mein ek political spectrum hota hai, extreme left se extreme right tak. Adhikansh log center mein hote hain. Sarkare adhiakansh waise log banate hain jinka bichar centrist ho. To Modi khud centrist hain. Lekin BJP ka jo tent hai, usmein center se le ke right se le ke far right se le ke kucch extreme right tatwa bhi hain. Modi khud na far right hain, na extreme right. Agar hote to main pasand nahin karta. Aur main bade gaur se dekh raha hoon. Hindu hone ka pride hai, aur hona bhi chahiye. Lekin auro ke prati ghrina nahin hai dil mein. Kamsekam mere direct observation mein abhi tak mere ko ek bhi waisa evidence nahin mila.

Lekin tent bada hai. Ek kah sakte ho aadmi kamjor hai. Apne hi tent ke logon ko thikane nahin laga sakta. Dusra perspective ye ho sakta hai ki ye aadmi kamjor nahin hai ki ye ek aise desh ka Pradhan Mantri hai jo duniya ka sabse bada loktantr hai. Bharat: loktantr ki janani bhumi hai. Loktantr British ne upahar nahin diya. Duniya ka pahla ganatantr Buddha ne sthapit kiya. Sanatani shaitano ne ujad ke fek diya, wo alag baat hai. Bandar. Monkey.

To loktantr mein kya hota hai ki jo galat bolta hai usko bhi bolne ka adhikar hota hai. Free speech. To ye to achhi baat hai ki desh ka pradhan mantri kisi ki bolti band nahin kar sakta. That is what we want.

To wahan par kami dikhi Opposition ki. Ki log jab galat bolte hain, to uske biruddh aap kyon nahin bolte? Wo to PM ka nahin Opposition ka kaam hai. Laloo aur Nitish ka kaam hai. National economy par top level ka kaam ho raha hai. Modi is a gift to India. Par social issues par space hai Opposition ke liye. BJP ke tent ke under aise log hain jinko democratic counter karne ki jaroorat hai. Kabhi love jihad, to kabhi ghar wapasi. Hote hote dadri. To us space mein Grand Alliance nirnayak role khel sakti hai.

Yani ki agar desh mein intolerance badha hai, jaisa ki kaha jata hai, to uski jimmedari Opposition ko leni padegi. Agar aap is tarah bikhre na hote to far right ke logon ki himmat patli ho jati. To aap is tarah jo bikhre pade hain, usse desh mein far right ko jaroorat se jyada jagah mil raha hai. The opposition is responsible.

Speech aur peaceful political action ----- loktantr mein ye allow hai. Shantipurvak aap sangathit ho sakte hain. Shantipurvak aap rajnitik karyakram kar sakte ho. Wo adhikar far right ko bhi hai, far left ko bhi, center left ko bhi.

Violence to na social issue hai, na political issue hai. Violence is and should be illegal, and the law should be strictly enforced. Murder ke biruddh to law hai. Hate crime ke biruddh law hai ki nahin? Nahin hai to banao. Law enforcement ko sirf din dahade murder hi nahin, domestic violence, caste violence, aur religious riots ko bhi tackle karna hoga. Us kabil banaya jana chahiye. Kaun kisko mar raha hai hame us se matlab nahin. Ham mardhar hone nahin denge. Hame sirf usse matlab hai. Law enforcement ka wo attitude hona chahiye. A riots-free India is possible. Tsunami/typhoon ke liye jis tarah early warning system hota hai, usi tarah desh bhar mein riots ke liye early warning system hone chahiye. Ki haan, yahan lag raha hai sthiti bigar ke riot ke taraf chali jayegi, to baat wahan tak pahunchne se pahle force ko wahan par pahunch jana hai. Jo karna hai so karna hai.

Law and order to first priority hai. Nitish ko log credit de dete hain. Ye kiya, wo kiya, Bihar mein bikas kiya. Are, unhone to sirf law and order take care kiya. Bikas to apne aap ho gayi. Pahle wo Sushasan Babu bane uske baad hi Bikashpurush banne ka mauka mila.

To desh bhar mein violence ko secular kism se tackle karna hai. Yani ki domestic violence ho ya caste violence ho ya phir religious violence: zero tolerance. Jaan aur dhan ki suraksha adhunik rajya (modern state) ka pratham aur sabse pramukh jimmewari hai. To wo capacity building ek pramukh rajnitik mudda hai. National, state aur local sab level par.

Grand Alliance ko ek national rup dena hoga. Aur social issues par bahut jyada space hai jo cover kiya ja sakta hai. Jaise ki Dalit liberation, wo to Mayawati ko hi karna hoga. Kaun karega? Bharat ka liberation to Gandhi aur Nehru aur Patel ko hi karna pada ki nahin? Ki koi Germany ya France se aa ke kar diya?

Ek democratic structure bana do to koi lafda nahin hota ki kaun neta banega, kya hoga. Vote kar do. Ho gaya nirnay.

Dalit liberation ka rasta Bharat liberation se fark nahin hai. Ki hum hain Harijan. Hamara naam Dalit nahin. Wo hamara abhi ka political status hai jise hum khatm karenge. Hamara apna ek alag dharm hai. Hum Rambhakt hain. Jis tarah Old Testament sirf Yahudi ka nahin Isai ka bhi, usi tarah Ved Puran Upanishad hamara bhi, lekin hamara pramukh granth hai Tulsidas ka Ramayana. Ramcharitmanas. Jis tarah Muslman ka apna alag dharm, Buddhist ka apna alag dharm, usi tarah Harijan ka bhi apna alag dharm. Ravana bhi Sanatani Shaitan, Valmiki bhi Sanatani Shaitan. Mandir toda Sanatani Shaitan ne, dosh de rahe Musalman ko. Harijan Muslim ko divide and rule.

Laoo, ya Nitish, ya Akhilesh, ya Mulayam, ya Modi koi aa ke liberate karne wala nahin. Liberation ko khud ka kaam hota hai.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

NDA GA Bipolarization: 30, 20, 50: What India Needs

The original version of General Electric's cir...
The original version of General Electric's circular logo and trademark. The trademark application was filed on July 24, 1899, and registered on September 18, 1900 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
थर्ड फ्रंट तो था ही नहीं। २०१४ में। और राहुल भी उम्मेदवार नहीं थे। सोनिया ने सक्रिय पहल किया। तो बीजेपी को ३०% और काँग्रेस को मिला २०% ---- और दुर दुर तक कोसो तक एक सफ़ेद धुँवा है फैला हुवा जहाँ ५०% मत बिखरे पड़े हैं। वो थर्ड फ्रंट नहीं है। इसी लिए मैंने कहा देशकी राजनीती एक कॉमेट की तरह है। न unipolar, न bipolar, न multipolar. सफेद धुँवा फैला हुवा है। इससे देश को घाटा है। देश के के हित में है कि एक bipolarization हो जाए। लोकतंत्र को अर्थतंत्र को ये चाहिए।

CBI ने जो रेड किया केजरीवाल के ऑफिस में ये तो बहुत बड़ी बात हो गयी। खबर मिल रहा है कि मोदी ने नहीं करवाया। तो ये क्या हुवा? ये तो एक कु हो गया। इससे पहले जिस सक्स को सीबीआई ने तंग किया वो आज प्रधान मंत्री है। उससे पहले जभी लालु को तंग किए। कुछ समय बाद अंक गणित लालु के पक्ष में आ गयी थी। Waste कर दिया गया।

General Electric कंपनी में है १० साल में लीडरशिप चेंज होता है। तो एक प्रक्रिया है एक रश्म है। भारत में कहा जाता है CBI संसद के अधीन है, पाकिस्तान में ISI पैरेलल गवर्नमेंट के तरह है। कहीं भारत में भी वो समस्या तो नहीं। CBI में कोई सेल है जो data crunching करती है और निर्णय करती है अगला बन्दा ये है। बहुत ही गलत बात है। You can't second guess the people like that. Especially, you can't act upon it to try and influence the democratic process.

Grand Alliance की बात शुरू हुवी है बिहार से। वो बात बिहार से बाहर जाती है कि नहीं वो अभी देखना बाँकी है।

सारे देश के सभी चुनाव पाँच साल में एक बार किए जाने की बात हो रही है। वो गलत होगी। लेकिन पाँच साल में दो बार हो तो शायद सही है। केंद्र, राज्य और स्थानीय। ढाई साल में एक ऐतवार को। बुथ पर जाना है।



Thursday, December 10, 2015

नीतिश को ग्रैंड अलायन्स के लिए सुझाव


  • ग्रैंड अलायन्स को एक राष्ट्रिय स्वरुप देने का प्रयास हो। 
  • सदस्य पार्टी यो को सभी तह पर एक पद एक उम्मेदवार पर जाना होगा। 
  • सदस्य पार्टी के दिल्ली में जितने सांसद हैं सब एक जगह आएंगे, वो निर्वाचक मंडल हुवा। उसमें ५०% से ज्यादा मत जो बटोरे वो ग्रैंड अलायन्स का राष्ट्रिय अध्यक्ष हुवा। 
  • वही फोर्मुला राज्य स्तर पर भी लागु हो। 
  • लेकिन ये तो संगठन वाली बात हुई। उससे ज्यादा महत्वपुर्ण बात है विज़न। Anti-BJP is not a vision. 
  • ५ स: सुशासन, शिक्षा, स्वास्थ्य, संरचना, सुलभता। 
  • लक्ष्य है डबल डिजिट ग्रोथ रेट। 

युपी में ऐसा नहीं हो सकता? मायावती और अखिलेश ५०-५० सीट डिस्ट्रीब्यूशन करें २०१७ में। जो ज्यादा सीट जितेगा वो मुख मंत्री। ये बात मायावती को बोलो तो वो कहेंगी आप अपनी हवा मिठाई घी के साथ खाओ। 

Wednesday, December 09, 2015

Bipolar Politics In India?

As Nitish Kumar Meets Assam Leader, Signs Of A Bihar-Like Formula



I have no idea what Nitish is upto, but a few days back I read he wants a Bihar repeat in Uttar Pradesh. And I was skeptical. Mayawati revolves in a world of her own. For the Nitish swearing in ceremony, her terse response was: "Jana jaroori hai kya?"

But Grand Alliance is a catchy name. It feels like a fresh start. The Third Front has been put to rest. The Federal Front never materialized, except in Mamata's brain.

Never underestimate a Bihari. Biharis are like Greeks. Ek samay ke superpower jab sirf India hi duniya tha. Modi and Nitish are the two most talented Indian politicians of their generation. Easily. Obvious baat hai. And Laloo is a powerhouse on his own. And Laloo's conviction, in a strange way, has turned him into a Nitish Hanuman, which probably would have been hard, perhaps impossible otherwise. Yane ke Laloo ko to koi pad lena nahin. Us sthiti mein political relevance hi bahut bara puraskar ho jata hai. Yane ke alag party hote bhi Laloo ke sare ke sare MP Nitish apna gin sakte hain. Bhagwan deta hai to chhappar far ke. Isi ko kahte hain.

To Bihar ke 40 MP ek nucleus ban jate hain. A national alternative can be imagined around that nucleus.

Pechinda baat ye hai ki Uttar Pradesh is galaxy mein hi nahin. Uska apna hi alag orbit hai. Kucchh planets hote hain, na is galaxy mein, na us galaxy mein. Wo between galaxies fenka jate hain. Andhere mein lattoo ki tarah golchakkar lagate rah jate hain.

Abhi desh ka rajniti na unipolar hai, na bipolar, na multi-polar. Desh ka rajniti abhi comet ki tarah hai. Sirf ek banda PM ke liye lada pichhle saal. Aur us ke pichhe ek lamba dhunwa sa hai koso tak.

To agar Grand Alliance Bihar se failte failte Assam pahunch jaye to badi baat hai. Laloo barishth neta ke rup mein sab jagah golchakkar lagate rahenge. Agar rashtriya star par hi ek Grand Alliance banti hai aur desh ke rajniti mein ek clean bi-polarization ho jati hai to wo desh ke liye, loktantr ke liye, double digit growth ke liye bahut achha hoga. PM bhi development man, Opposition Leader bhi development man ho jaye to sustained double digit growth shayad mil jaye desh ko.

Nitishism akhir hai kya? Nitish ne kabhi codify nahin kiya. Karna chahiye. Ki humne Bihar mein aise kiya. Wo dusre jagah bhi kiye jaa sakte hain. Usi tarah Laloo ko codify karna chahiye. Railway mein unhone jo kiya so kaise kiya. Kisi paschima textbook mein hi nahin hai. Laloo ke populism ("I am a man of the people!") ne western capitalism ko maat kar diya. And it is relevant to India. Jis desh mein ghans kam aadmi jyada ho, wahan people intensive economic activity ki sakht jaroorat hai shayad. Bagair katni chhantni kiye kaise logon ke marfat bumper profit karein. 

National level par Modi bahut aage hain. Indian economy ke fundamental level par itna bejod kaam ho raha hai, iska asar kuchh saal ke baad bade thos kism se padega.

Gelling the Grand Alliance at the national level is hard. Jaise Mayawati ko lo. Unhe to lagta hai BJP aur Congress ke baad hum hi to hain. To pahle unke charan sparsh karo tab koi alliance ki baat karo. Nahin to wo to mere to lagta hai chai pe bhi nahin bulayegi. Akhilesh kam nahin. Mulayam ko PM mano pahle, uske baad hi koi allaince balaince ki baat shuru ho sakti hai. Kahan na maine, kuchh planets galaxy ko hi chhod dete hain. Spin out ho jate hain. Aur Mulayam. Safal rajnitigya rahe hain. Dimag bhi shayad chalta ho. Lekin boli se to nahin lagta. Aur waise bhi wo ek apne hi kism ke Advani hain: way past retirement age. Lekin neta logon ko pata hi nahin chalta. Ghadi mein time kya hai, nabj mein daudahat banki hai bhi ki nahin. Log salam karte rahte hain. To lagta hai ek round aur dekh lete hain, rakha kya hai, log pyar de hi rahe hain.

Nitish ne Bihar mein vikas kar diya. Honestly bol raha hoon, maine kabhi kalpana bhi nahin kiya tha ki koi bhi sakhs Bihar mein vikas kar sakta hai. Like how? Where would you start? Lekin Bihar mein vikas se jyada kathin baat hai UP mein Mayawati aur Akhilesh ko ek jagah lana, usse bhi kathin unhe manana ki koi teesra neta banega. Unhe lagta hai wo hain Amrika, banki Bharat hai Fiji. Size to dekho.

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

बीजेपी, उत्तर प्रदेश और २०१७

बिहार में बीजेपी हारा नहीं बल्कि नीतिश जीते हैं। २०१४ में भी बिहार में नीतिश हारे नहीं बल्कि बिहार के जनता ने उनको स्पष्ट कह दिया आपको पटना तो छोड़ना ही नहीं है। आप जो काम कर रहे हैं वो दुसरा करेगा कौन?

लेकिन अखिलेश नीतिश नहीं हैं। नीतिश का विकास का ट्रैक रेकॉर्ड stellar रहा है।

मायावती कोई ग्रैंड अलायन्स में आ जाए वो संभव नहीं दिखता। उनको तो लग रहा है मोदी दिल्ली में और अखिलेश लखनऊ में --- दोनों से जनता जब उब जाए तो जाना कहाँ? तो वो अपना झोली पसारेंगी। विकास का कोइ रेकॉर्ड तो है नहीं। अम्बेडकर तो गांधी लेवल के लोग। उनका statue बनाओ। खांसीराम तक ठीक है। लेकिन ये तो खुदकी statue बनवाने लगी।

लालु और नीतिश का तो कोइ presence है नहीं युपी में। मुलायम तो कतरा के भाग गए। नीतिश ने पहल किया, कि आप नेता बन जाओ। तो मुलायाम को लगा कह रहे हैं, आप बिल्ली मोदी शेर जाओ कुद जाओ मैदान में। तो वो अपना चालाकी से खिसक लिए।

कमसेकम चार खेमें तो रहेंगे। मायावती एक तरफ, अखिलेश एक तरफ, बीजेपी एक तरफ, अन्य एक तरफ। बीजेपी शायद २०१४ के तरह स्वीप न दे लेकिन फिर भी बीजेपी का पलड़ा अभी भारी है। फिर अभी वक्त भी तो है। काम करके दिखाने के लिए अभी वक्त है।

लेकिन मुद्दा विकासका होना चाहिए, सिर्फ विकासका।

Uttar Pradesh 2017 will be do or die for Modi.






Banaarasi Modi Ki Najar Mission UP 2017 Par
State BJP wants a CM nominee for #UP2017. Will Modi, Amit Shah oblige?
Modi might have lost UP elections already
In Bihar, the BJP was at least in the race to the throne, but Uttar Pradesh may not be so merciful.
Apparently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi sleeps just four hours a day. .....

LS 2014 saw the rise of Narendra Modi into a political rock star, Bihar 2015 saw the rise of his possible nemesis.

..... UPites love politics; it's their favourite pastime gossip. Even during the not-so-newsy days they are never short of topics to discuss it. And I say this for general UPites, not any more-politically-aware class; because there is no such class that enjoys politics less than the other. Even amid the Diwali fervour, Bihar results retain the top spot among the most happening conversations. More than who won, it is the who-lost-Bihar point which is discussed. Such chatter is usually inconclusive, but in a state where people wear their political opinions on their sleeves, it gives a clue of what the UP elections, due in 2017, may hold for the BJP. ....... In LS polls, BJP's vote share in the state was 42 per cent. It was a substantial increase from the last state Assembly elections in 2012 when the party got a mere 15 per cent votes. In an SP, BSP stronghold where BJP hasn't been in power for the last 20 years, it is a fairly impressive number. ........

In UP, the general feeling is that voters have been disillusioned by the BJP.

BSP and SP have upped their game which changes things further. Whether BJP fights UP with Modi at helm or not, the challenges at hand would be different this time. And it would be true for forthcoming state elections as well as the big one in 2019. ........ The Akhilesh government has sped up the work on all the major developmental programmes. With a massive ad campaign, strong social media presence, and sacking of eight non-performing ministers he has also undertaken an image makeover exercise. ...... Another advantage these parties have is strong leadership at state level, as well as district and city levels, an advantage the BJP doesn't have. ..... SP and BSP have a loyal voter base in Yadavs, Muslims, and Dalits which form more than 40 per cent of UP's population. .... 2017 may be a tough fight between BSP and SP. In Bihar, the BJP was at least in the race to the throne but UP may not be so merciful.
Buoyed by Bihar, Congress warns SP, BSP: In 2017 UP assembly elections, will target you
Congress launched a direct attack on Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav and BSP chief Mayawati accusing them of trying to serve the agenda of BJP and PM Narendra Modi
A senior leader said that aggressive attack by party vice-president Rahul Gandhi on Narendra Modi government gave such results in Bihar and has raised the morale of party workers across UP. He said the party is now expecting to be in a fighting position against the SP and BSP in 2017 UP polls. ...... Congress MLA from Marihan in Mirzapur district, Lalitesh Pati Tripathi said, “RJD chief Lalu Prasad has announced to visit PM’s constituency Varanasi after Chhath puja to expose the development that has taken place so far in the NDA rule. Congress workers have decided to welcome him in Varanasi and take him on a tour of city to show him the real condition”.


In fight against BJP, Lalu to strengthen SP in 2017
Lalu Prasad will be campaigning for the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led party for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls in 2017.
WHILE THE Samajwadi Party is said to be reconsidering to unite with the Mahagathbandhan after its landslide victory in Bihar polls, Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad will be campaigning for the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led party for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls in 2017. ...... Lalu has already announced to visit Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Lok Sabha constituency Varanasi next month “where he would search with the help of his ‘lantern’ (RJD symbol) the development promised” during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls”. Besides undertaking a tour of the city as well as Jayapur village — adopted by PM under the Sansad Adarsh Gram Yojana – Lalu will also address a public meeting there. The Congress, too, has announced to give a warm welcome to Lalu in Varanasi. ......... The party’s Uttar Pradesh unit, that had been sidelined for the past several years, got a major morale boost after the Bihar poll victory. “Bihar results proved that Lalu ji has acceptability among the masses. We are going to turn it into a wave against BJP across the country. It will begin from UP where the party will work to strengthen SP in 2017 Assembly polls,” said Ashok Singh. ....... SP leader Shivpal Yadav has said that they would welcome the the RJD chief here as a ‘samdhi’ (relative).
Bihar Verdict: Patch-up in sight as RJD extends hand to Samajwadi Party in UP
Lalu has already announced he will visit Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s constituency of Varanasi, UP, next month to “expose the reality” of what change has happened after Modi’s 2014 Lok Sabha victory.
Bihar polls impact on Uttar Pradesh: Samajwadi Party wants to ‘forget past’, work with Grand Alliance
Mulayam and Shivpal called up Nitish and Lalu to congratulate them on their victory while Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav extended greetings on Twitter.



No chance of a UP grand alliance: It will be a BJP-BSP contest in the 2017 state polls
Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati has predictably shot down chief minister Akhilesh Yadav's trial balloon of a mahagathbandhan to take on the BJP in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. ..... Though politics is known as the art of impossible, to expect Mayawati and Mulayam Singh to contest the election together would have been equivalent to the naiveté of imagining a snake and mongoose playing together. Mayawati is known for her ego and ambition, Mulayam Singh is infamous for his betrayals, backstabbing and even bigger ego and ambition; both of them depend largely on the same vote bank and fancy their chances of winning the next election on their own. No, Mayawati is the west of Lucknow politics, Mulayam its east and the twain would have never come together. ........ One, the Congress is likely to be wiped out and reduced to a non-entity; two, the Samajwadi Party will lose a huge chunk of votes; and, three,

the real fight would be between the BJP and the BSP.

...... a Congress-mukt election harms the BJP. ...... By now, the BJP must have realised that it does well in UP only when Hindu voters are polarised and there is confusion among Muslim voters, leading to their division. ..... With the SP facing anti-incumbency and the state's nearly 20 percent minorities having tasted the fruits of tactical voting in Bihar, the BSP's support base is likely to widen and that of the SP is expected to shrink in 2017, making Mayawati the face of the anti-BJP campaign. ...... In 2007, Mayawati had managed to win over the Brahmins of UP, considered to be around 10 percent of the electorate. If she manages to once again become the leader of sarv samaj (Muslims, Dalits and Brahmins), instead of remaining the supremo of just the Bahujan Samaj, Mayawati could turn out to be the Nitish Kumar of UP, even without a mahagathbandhan.
UP elections: After Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar, Congress enters Prashant Kishor's fan club
Kishor has been sounded out for campaigns in Bengal (Trinamool), Tamil Nadu (AIADMK) and Assam (Congress) as well but the UP assignment for Congress is for him the most important decision. ...... Kishor is well aware that the "road to 2019 (the next general election) runs through 2017 (when UP assembly polls are due)". "He (Kishor) knows

the party that wins UP in 2017 will have a huge advantage in 2019"

..... Kishor, however, is likely to face a job considerably tougher than the 2012 Gujarat victory for Modi or the 2014 Modi assignment for the general election or the 2015 Nitish assignment. ...... unlike in Bihar, Congress doesn't plan to play second or third fiddle to satraps in UP. The state in 2017 is likely to see a 4-cornered contest between BJP, Congress, SP and BSP. ..... UP's political observers consider Congress to be the weakest of the four contestants. Kishor, therefore, will have arguably his toughest challenge so far because both Modi in 2014 and Nitish in 2015 had certain advantages that could be exploited. ...... "Prashant has his own way of working and has little patience with intrigue and politicking. With Modi, he had direct access, same with Nitish and Lalu. He doesn't deal with gatekeepers"


Countdown for 2017 begins in U.P.
Over the last few months he has also come out from under the shadow of his father, SP chief Mulayam Singh and his uncles Shivpal Singh and Ram Gopal Yadav and according to officials in the Shastri Bhavan secretariat from where his government is run, far more assertive than he was in 2012-13.
Top parties begin electoral strategies for 2017 UP polls
Uttar Pradesh assembly polls is more than 15 months away from now ..... February 2017 ..... If Bihar returns Kumar and backs Laloo, Mulayam is confident of returning to a nation-wide grand alliance against prime minister Narendra Modi. After all, if backwards do not side with the BJP in Bihar, Samajwadis feel they too will have a chance to keep UP for another five years. ........

The BJP in Uttar Pradesh is working rapidly on ground. It goes to the credit of party’s national president that BJP cadre throughout Uttar Pradesh is confident of forming its government in 2017.

The communal tension and sporadic violence in some district may be coincidental but contributing favourably to the BJP....... at the time of country’s independence, Mahatma Gandhi was walking barefooted village after village in Noakhali district of Bengal, in a hostile atmosphere created by riots, making people to take a pledge not to kill others. He carried holy books, appealing to Hindus as well as Muslims, to ensure peace. There was a moving incident at one village. Gandhi visited that village. He asked the Hindus and Muslims to come out of their hutments for a common prayer and a common pledge for peace. No elderly person turned up. He waited for half an hour, not even one Hindu or Muslim turned up. Gandhiji was very ingenious. He had carried a ball with him and then addressing children from the village he said: “Small kids from this village, your parents are frightened of each other but what fright you can have? Elderly Hindus and Muslims might be frightened of one another. But children are innocent. You are children of God. I am inviting you to play the game of ball.” The Hindu and Muslim children started moving towards the dais where Gandhi was sitting. Gandhi threw the ball at them. Boys and girls threw it back. He played for half an hour and then he told the villagers: “You have no courage but if you want that courage, induct it from your children.”

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

बिहार में हुवा क्या?

नीतिश जिते। वही हुवा। नीतिश को बिहार ने १० साल के लिए मैंडेट दिया है होलसेल में।

नीतीश का मुकाबला खुद अपने आप से है। वो बिहार को २०% ग्रोथ रेट दे सकते हैं या नहीं। मुकाबला वो है। 

२०१९ में मोदी बिहार फिर से स्वीप करेंगे। ४० सीट है बिहार से। २०-२० कर के नीतिश और लालु लड़ते हैं और नीतिश १००% स्कोर करते हैं, तो हुवा २० सीट। २० MP ले के कोइ प्राइम मिनिस्टर बनता है? ये नेपाल है?

वैसे भी बिहार अगर देश होता तो दुनिया का १२ हवा बड़ा देश होता। फ्रांस और जर्मनी का प्रेसिडेन्ट या चांसलर से तो नीतिश आगे हुवे। बिहार के सामने पाकिस्तान क्या है? कुछ नहीं। पाकिस्तान में न तो इकनोमिक ग्रोथ रेट है न कुछ। 

लालु का कभी कभी भाषण सुनो तो लगता है कह रहे हैं, मुसलमान भाइयों, मेरे को वोट दो, सुरक्षित रहो, बीजेपी को वोट दो तो मारे जाओगे। ये कैसी बात हुइ? 

नेपाल में एक पॉलिटिशियन हुवा करता था। नाम था मिर्जा दिल साद वेग। वो मंच पर चढ़ जाता था। कहता था लोगों को: "वोट दो नहीं तो बस्ती जला देंगे!" (बॉलीवुड इन्फ्लुएंस रहा होगा)

लोग सोंचते थे, सड़क पिचिंग नहीं हुई तो कोइ बात नहीं, स्कुलमें मास्टर न आए कोइ बात नहीं, गाओं में बिजली पानी नपहुँचे तो क्या हुवा अभी तक उसके बगैर काम चला लिए तो आगे भी चला लेंगे। लेकिन बस्ती जल गयी तो दिक्कत है। तो मिर्जा ने कभी इलेक्शन हारा ही नहीं। पार्टी बदला एक दो बार फिर भी नहीं हारा। 

एक बार मेरे को मिल गया। मैं अपने एक मन पसंद नेता के ऑफिस में बैठा हुवा था अकेले। कहाँ से न कहाँ से आ पहुँचे मिर्जा। मैंने हाई हेलो कह दिया। वैसे कहाँ मैं सीता नगरी से और वो बुद्ध नगरी से। फिर भी सोंचा हाई हेलो बोल दो पाँच सेकंड में और अपनी बस्ती बचा लो। बचा लिया। 

इसु होना चाहिए कि देश में कानुन है कि नहीं। और जो कानुन है वो अप्लाई हो रहा है कि नहीं? जैसे कि दादरी। हत्या का घटना है। एक तो मर्डर है। जो कि अपराध है। और उपर से hate crime भी है। दोनों गैर कानुनी होना चाहिए। नहीं है तो वैसा कानुन बनाओ। और उसको अप्लाई करना तो पुलिस का काम है। मुख मंत्री या प्रधान मंत्री का नहीं। हालाँकि हाई प्रोफाइल केस है। देश की राजनीति हिल गई। हिलना जरुरी भी है। मुसलमान बीफ नहीं खायेगा तो क्या खायेगा? खरगोश? आप अपना धर्म औरो पर थोपने का काम मत करो, प्रयास ही मत करो। ये मानव अधिकार का मामिला है। Freedom of Religion

अपने धर्म के प्रति गर्व करो। लेकिन और किसी के धर्म के बारे में गलत बोल्ने की क्या जरुरत है?

दूसरा मैंने न्यूज़ में पढ़ा चेहरे पर कालिख पोता गया। तो मैंने मन में कहा मोदी उस पर कमेंट करते हैं तो प्रमाणित होगा वो अपना काम नहीं कर रहे हैं। इतना बड़ा देश चलाना है, और आप चेहरे पर कालिख पोते जाने के घटना पर कमेंट करते हो, आप के पास उतना समय है तो अपने पद से राजीनामा दो और दिन भर बैठ के, हात पर हात रख के क्रिकेट कमेंट्री करो। 

मेरे कहने का मतलब भारत का प्रधान मंत्री अगर अपना काम कर रहा है तो उसके पास उतना समय होना ही नहीं चाहिए की वो प्रत्येक घटना पर कमेंट मारता रहे। चेहरे पर कालिख गलत बात है। लेकिन प्राइम मिनिस्टर को malnutrition के मुद्दे पर समय बिताना चाहिए। 

दल से बड़ा देश मोदीजी। तो दिजिए बिहार को दिल खोल के मदत। 



Sunday, November 08, 2015

Nitish: India's Opposition Leader


Modi and Nitish are the two most talented Indian politicians of their generation. It is only fitting that one is Prime Minister, and another is now Opposition Leader. Nitish ran on a Bihar@2025 mantra. And so he is not a factor in 2019. Biharis want to keep him in Bihar. That is why they gave him a drubbing last year in the national election.

Modi needs Nitish. Nitish can counter the sometimes extremist tendencies of the RSS the way Modi simply can't.

Nitish Kumar's role greater than Lalu in the victory: Chirag Paswan
Uddhav, Raj Thackeray congratulate Nitish Kumar on big Bihar elections victory
Bihar Voted Against Intolerance, Hatred, Says Congress, AAP, Trinamool
After travelling hundreds of kilometres in Bihar, a reporter’s diary on why Modi lost
voters were clear in judging the BJP’s campaign with its performance so far at the centre. ..... In the middle of the campaign, the prices of arhar dal—split red legume—shot through the roof, becoming a campaign issue. ..... Voters also complained that the Modi government had reduced funds in social welfare schemes, particularly the Indira Awas Yojana, a scheme to help build pucca houses for the rural poor. They were also unhappy over funds drying up in a rural employment guarantee programme and a food subsidy programme, as well as reduction of the minimum support price for farmers. ..... “Modi is good for the country. Perhaps he is good for the cities. But he is not good for the villages” ..... they struggled to name Modi’s biggest achievement as prime minister. “He has improved India’s stature before the world,” they said, and soon became defensive about the prime minister’s frequent foreign trips. ...... He also spoke of the Jan Dhan Yojana, an effort at banking inclusion, which has so far given bank accounts to 190 million citizens for the first time.


Bihar elections: The end of Modi’s juggernaut and the rise of strange bedfellows
Modi was the face—and the dominant voice—of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) campaign in Bihar but, against foes-turned-friends Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav, the assault has crumbled. The Kumar-led Mahagathbandhan, or Grand Alliance—comprising the Janata Dal (United), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress—is now leading in 177 seats. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is trailing at 61 seats. ..... Despite promises, reassurances and much bandying about of rankings, India’s economy hasn’t really kick-started under this government. ..... True, the economy is stable, but hard decisions on important reforms have either been delayed or shelved, and much depends on the government’s ability to spend more and spend better. ...... evidence of the further rise of India’s regional parties as the only real opposition to the dominant BJP. It is also proof of the political space they have come to occupy as a withering Congress party languidly attempts to set its house in order. ..... A group of influential regional leaders—including Delhi’s Arvind Kejriwal, West Bengal’s Mamata Banerjee and Uddhav Thackeray of the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra—wasted little time in congratulating the Kumar-Yadav Grand Alliance and chastening the BJP. ....... With a deft handle on the state’s deeply entrenched caste divisions and a keen sense of the populist pulse, the shrewd Yadav repeatedly returned to power but delivered little on development. .....

Yadav’s RJD won 79 seats, five more than what Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) has mustered.

How partners let BJP down in Bihar
NDA allies Paswan, Kuswaha and Manjhi lose in Bihar, lose clout at Centre
The bloodbath of the NDA allies on whom BJP was banking for its forward-backward winning combination, means that both Paswan and Kuswaha, will have reduced clout in the union government of which both are a part.
Bihar poll result a 'victory of democracy': BJP MP Shatrughan Sinha
Inside Nitish Kumar's War Room, Headed By Prashant Kishor
Sources say Mr Kishor's tested strategy is perception-building, or creating a buzz around a party. For Nitish Kumar, 'chai pe charcha' morphed into "parcha pe charcha" or discussion over pamphlets, which asked people for feedback on the state government's performance in the last 10 years. A "Har Ghar Dastak" (knock on every door) campaign took the outreach further. ...... From giant hoardings to instant rebuttals on social media, the team had to match the rival coalition at every step.
Bihar Election Result: Jitan Ram Manjhi Says Ready to Be Chief Minister If Asked
Ahead of Bihar verdict, Jitan Ram Manjhi says he is ready to be CM
Narendra Modi's party concedes defeat in Bihar election
A big setback for India's Narendra Modi
Narendra Modi suffers major electoral setback on eve of London visit
Mr Modi made repeated visits to the state – which

with a population of 110 million would be the world's 12th-largest nation, if independent

– as the BJP waged a polarising electoral battle on caste and religious lines...... The vote was widely regarded as a referendum on the prime minister’s popularity after 18 months in office as he campaigned hard for a victory that would have helped him pass a stalled national economic reform programme.
12 reasons why BJP could not fan the Narendra Modi wave in Bihar
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's readiness to play communal politics has cost BJP Bihar. We found 11 other reasons too
Bihar has rejected the shrill Hindutva of RSS ...... Modi-Shah were branded as “ baharis” and Bihar selected a Bihari with a vengeance. Familiarity breeds security in voter’s mind....... The Muslim vote bank has not lost potency under the BJP raj and can play a contributory role in defeating or restricting a strident BJP, nationwide. ..... Lalu and Nitish are leaders when it comes to the OBC, EBC and poor while BJP in Bihar remains largely the party of forward classes dominated by Bhumihars. .....

Mohan Bhagwat’s statement on revisiting the reservation policy was nemesis for Modi-Shah.

...... BJP can’t have its cake and eat it too. Mandal and Kamandal can’t go together. Mandal divides Hindu castes. Kamandal survives on Hindu unity. ..... The rule at the Centre is lacklustre and Biharis have said it loud and clear. ..... Lalu Yadav’s earthy responses and one-liners gave fitting reply to Modi’s oratory skill. .....

Amit Shah’s style of functioning made many Bihari BJP leaders hostile. They sabotaged the party’s planning covertly.

....... Money, alone, can not win any election in democratic India.


Narendra Modi-promised achhe din have not come
A victorious Nitish emerges as the face of a national alternative
After blocking the BJP’s juggernaut in Bihar, JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar is being increasingly seen in political circles as the face of a possible national alternative of regional parties to take on the NDA in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. ...... The Bihar polls were widely viewed as a direct fight between Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi who addressed around 30 mega rallies, the most by any PM in any state election. ......

It is well known in Congress circles that the party’s vice-president, Rahul Gandhi, is also an admirer of Kumar

...... Though several Third Front experiments have failed in the last 15 years, regional satraps could give it another shot at after the massive grand alliance win in Bihar. ..... “After the success of Bihar experiment, joint ventures and mergers will be the order of the day between old political rivals,” a political observer predicted.
PM Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Arun Jaitley responsible for Bihar loss: Arun Shourie
Four parties that did worse than Nota this Bihar election
Dalits seem to have backed the grand alliance instead of the Musahar leader, who picked up just three seats. ..... Mulayam Singh Yadav walked out of the Janata Parivar in a huff during seat-sharing negotiations, saying the party was being given a raw deal. ...... Asaduddin Owaisi’s Hyderabad-based party .... Once a stronghold of the Left parties, Bihar seems to have rejected both the CPI(M) and the CPI, who together polled less than 2% of the votes and didn’t win a single seat between them.
Bihar election result: Assam BJP disappointed by Bihar outcome
Bihar poll results: Here's why Nitish Kumar should be aware of the fragility of his victory
Nitish Kumar would now emerge as a political fulcrum around which all anti-BJP and anti-Modi political forces would converge. ..... Nitish forged a formidable Muslim-Yadav-Kurmi coalition to which a significant section of the extremely backward classes (EBCs) got drawn. ......

the victory of Nitish Kumar in the assembly election would not change the grammar of Indian politics. Those who worked with Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar testify that both share many common traits. Both are meticulous, honest, hardworking and come from a humble background. In their respective settings, both are often accused of being “arrogant and authoritative”.

Their politics may diverge but it leaves the scope of the twain meeting in future...... VP Singh’s emergence as a counter to Rajiv Gandhi proved to be politically ephemeral as its ideological base was no distinct from the Congress, which bounced back to assert itself. As the jubilation in Patna fades away and Nitish Kumar occupies the official bungalow at Anne Marg, he would certainly be conscious of the fragility of this electoral victory more than anybody else.
Bihar, where Amit Shah’s one-size-fits all strategy failed
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trusted lieutenant has had a relatively smooth run as party boss. Electoral victories in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir helped him consolidate his grip over the organisation. Few complaints were aired in public, although there have been dissenting voices from those uncomfortable with his meteoric rise and take-no-prisoners style. ..... Shah’s one-size-fits-all campaign strategy, developed and perfected elsewhere, lost its novelty in a complex state where political discourse ranged from caste to development to religion. ..... He tried micro-managing the Bihar campaign. The result was bruised egos and dissidence among the state’s leaders and misplaced zeal among thousands of party workers brought in from other states with little knowledge of local equations. ..... Many veterans are pacing on the sidelines for an opportunity to vent their frustration. He is not without his critics in the RSS either. ..... Five states are set to go to the polls in 2016 and he has been spearheading the party’s preparations there. Among them, the BJP is looking to make ideological penetration and increase its footprint in Assam and Bengal.
Bihar becomes 'top Twitter trend' in Pakistan
"Sorry, it's all the smoke from the crackers in Pakistan," tweeted former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah. It was an indirect jibe at BJP president Amit Shah. ..... Shah, in an election speech, had said that if BJP lost in Bihar, there would be fireworks in Pakistan. "If by any mistake BJP loses, victory and defeat may be in Bihar but fire crackers will go off in Pakistan," he had said. The BJP-led alliance eventually lost the polls to Nitish-Lalu partnership. ..... Interestingly, Lalu Prasad did create a fan-base of sorts in Pakistan when he had visited the country in 2003. At the time, several Pakistani newspapers had called him 'Bihar ka Badshah' and the politician himself had called for peace between the south-Asian neighbours. "I know people laugh at me and I enjoy that," Lalu, part of a two-day an Indian delegation taking part in a two-day conference of parliamentarians, experts and journalists organised by the South Asian Free Media Association (SAFMA), had said here. "But that's the power of democracy and it's the power of vote that has made me so powerful."
Shiv Sena hails Nitish Kumar, calls him ‘mahanayak’ after victory in Bihar polls
Asserting that it will bring in a "new" turn in the country's politics, Sena leader Sanjay Raut also said if elections were to be held in Maharashtra now, similar results will emerge.
Adding salt to BJP’s wounds, NDA ally Shiv Sena on Sunday hailed Nitish Kumar as “mahanayak” (super hero) after the grand alliance victory in Bihar elections and said defeat “denotes decline of a leader” in an apparent reference to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Saturday, November 07, 2015

Bihar In The News



Reverse Swing: Narendra Modi’s governance is a lost opportunity
India needed a leader of the nation. Instead, it got the leader of a party.
The conservatism that we see today is not fiscal but religious. The order we see being imposed on India is not national but Hindu. After campaigning the Amit Shah Way, Modi is now governing the Amit Shah Way. There is no calm, there is no reflection, there is no attention paid to what ails the nation. Instead, we have a Nonstop Campaign. There is scarcely a moment or opportunity when Modi thinks of the nation first, and not of his party and its saffron fellow travellers. .....

The BJP had to win elections in Bihar, so the issue of the Madhesis in Nepal was stoked up, Indo-Nepalese relations be damned.

Bihar election results: What would the verdict mean?
A win for the MGB means the opposition will roar. Parliament will witness a renewed vigor. A new model - of alliance of opposition formations - will be sought to be replicated in other states. The setback will be used to attack BJP for both its willingness to turn a blind eye to religious chauvinism, as well as its failure to meet the promises of 2014. Narendra Modi will have to do a drastic review of operations in government. ....... Nitish Kumar will be seen as the only politician capable of taking on Narendra Modi. And that is because the BJP itself, by not announcing a CM candidate and making the PM the star and almost solo campaigner, pitted it as a contest between the two. Kumar’s restrained and understated style, his development record and OBC background, his ideological opposition to Modi, and now his political success will all be seen as assets. And if Congress remains as weak as it is, do not be surprised if he becomes the opposition face in 2019. ...... The win would also be because of

a complete Muslim consolidation, who have voted aggressively but silently to ensure there is no counter consolidation.

The right mix of vikas, jaati and Muslim vote would have won the alliance Bihar. ....... Prashant Kishore .. has been Nitish Kumar’s closest aide for the last year, and even lives in the CM’s residence. Kishore created the campaign around Brand Nitish and made it a presidential contest. He became the bridge between Lalu and Nitish after the alliance was struck. He worked out the campaign to its minutest detail, from who would speak at which rally on what day to the nature of the pamphlets and envisaged how to beat the BJP, with a fraction of its resources. Kishore would become a star, campaigning in India would change, and every leader would begin hiring strategists like the US.


Nitish Kumar led Mahagathbandhan leads by 4 per cent voteshare over BJP-NDA: Lokniti-CSDS survey
42 per cent of the electorates have voted for the grand-coalition led by Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav, whereas, 38 per cent have casted their cote in favour of BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. ..... The survey also predicts that non-aligned political forces could make a mark in the electoral process since thay have bagged 20 per cent of the voteshare. ..... Pappu Yadav, leading his won party Jan Adhikar Manch; Tariq Anwar leading the NCP and firebrand Muslim leader Asaduddin Owaisi
Over 80% Muslims in Bihar voted for Nitish Kumar-led Grand Alliance : Exit poll
84% Muslims supported JDU-RJD-Cong alliance, 08% voted for the BJP-led NDA and the remaining 08% of Muslims opted for other parties including the AIMIM. ..... Former chief minister Lalu Prasad, however, insisted that the Grand Alliance, which also includes the Congress, was poised to win 190 seats. ..... "The entire backward community of Bihar has voted for us," he told the media in Patna. "We salute them for this." .....

Neither Modi or BJP president Amit Shah -- who micro-managed the Bihar election -- nor Nitish Kumar spoke to the media.

...... The Bihar election is a big test for the BJP, whose winning streak since the 2014 Lok Sabha polls was halted by the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi in February this year.
Random thoughts on the eve of Bihar poll
Why does the Bihar election seem so difficult to decipher? Largely because Bihar is difficult to decipher through numbers and the Bihari voter is inscrutable.
Most of them will observe you, think and then keep silent when asked questions about whom they will vote for.

The state does not have a single private university

, but it has more than 25% of voters below the age of 30. ...... It’s mobile penetration is at par, almost, with India at 89%. Many Biharis charge their mobile with solar energy. Every fifth young voters is outside Bihar. Bihari students shell out Rs 5,000 crore every year to different educational institutions outside Bihar. People here are well-informed and small television channels are robust and outspoken in airing people’s voices. ..... The state is modern if you see the information quotient of the average person, but then

less than 25% of people have access to latrines

and in Bihar less than 5% (yes, five!) people have access to tap water but again, Bihar is different. More than 99% of villages have handpumps. ........ In Bihar only 2.4% villages have ATM machines and less than 10% villages have banks. ...... “Bihar is less communal and more caste-oriented.” ...... Bihar has the highest population growth rate in the last decade and the highest density of population at 1106 per square km. Again, the literacy rate grew fastest from 47% to 61.80% in the last the decade. India’s literacy rate is around 72.99%. ...... Bihar’s growth rate is better than India’s at 9 to 10% and it’s compounded growth rate between 2009-2014 was at 78.1%.

If you see certain figures one feels Nitish Kumar should win hands down.

It has better roads, better power and better railway connectivity. ....... Almost 60% of Bihar is under the direct threat of floods and 70% of the population gets affected by it. Thukral says, “Bihar has the highest number of the lowest land holding. Some 91% of land holding is less than 100 yards. ........

“Nitish Kumar gets credit that Bihar’s crime rate is much less than Kerala’s.”

..... Only 14% of Biharis have access to television, which is much less than Indian average but in bicycles Bihar is higher at 48% than the Indian average of 44%. ..... Unfortunately, Nitish’s Bihar has not been able to create jobs. The negative rate of job creation has made the election exciting because population is restless.

Except lichi cultivation, exports to Nepal and some growth in horticulture Bihar is starving of funds and opportunities.

....... BJP has in its computer 70 lakh mobile numbers of Bihari voters. ....... Bihar was overflowing with Modi and his messages. 27,300 three-wheelers, 2100 buses, 64000 graffiti 4000 tea stall, 18000 car stickers and some 300 plus rallies out of which Modi and Shah ended up addressing more than one sixth of it. ....... In just one election Bihar has witnessed more than 600 large and medium public rallies of Lalu, Nitish and Shah and PM Modi. .......

behind BJP’s so-called negative prospect is that in Bihar, what Dr. Shaibal Gupta calls the social justice constituency is alive and is a force to reckon with. Once Mohan Bhagwat’s statement on revision of reservation system came, the hold over the campaign shifted out of BJP’s hands.

After the Bhagwat moment Shah was left to struggle with his ” booth chalo” mission, only.


CNN-IBN dropped its Bihar exit poll since it predicted landslide victory for Nitish Kumar’s Mahagathbandhan
Leading television news channel CNN-IBN chose not to air its exclusive exit poll on Bihar assembly elections despite promoting it for multiple hours. The decision was taken at the last moment by the editorial team. The outcome of the survey was shocking and contentious. It predicted a landslide sweep in favour of Nitish Kumar by suggesting that the Mahagathbandhan will win the elections by more than a 2/3rd majority. ...... Mahagathbandhan, comprising of Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD and Congress are expected to emerge victorious on 169-183 seats, whereas BJP-led NDA is expected to win only 58-70 assembly segments. ........ It is worth recalling that

Axis, the agency which has been rejected by CNN-IBN was the only one to predict a landslide victory in favour of Aam Aadmi Party in the Delhi assembly elections.

It has suggested AAP would win 53(+7-), whereas other media outlets did not predicted more than 45. On the day of results, the Arvind Kejriwal led faction emerged victorious by bagging 67 out of the 70 seats.
JD(U)-RJD will win 190 of 243 seats, Nitish to name dy CM: Lalu
"A decision on the deputy CM will be taken after the election results are out on Sunday," Lalu said, adding that it would be Nitish's call whether or not to have a deputy CM. The inimitable Yadav boss then told reporters that the BJP was nowhere in the picture, and said, "You ask 'how'?" ...... With newsmen bursting into laughter - partly at his supreme confidence as also at the fact that he was giving the alliance 28 more than a two-thirds majority - Lalu explained: "More than 80% Dalits, backwards, minorities and the poor among upper castes voted for the RJD-JD(U)-Congress combine. Only rich voters supported NDA." ..... He then added, "PM Narendra Modi said in his last election rally that Nitish had only six days to rejoice. Lekin hum logon ne Modi ko Chhatthi ka doodh yaad kara diya (we've taught Modi a lesson he'll never forget)," he said. .....

Lalu admitted RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat's calling for a review of the reservation policy played a big role in pushing the poor towards the grand alliance.

...... "They (BJP leaders) were thinking they would divide the backward votes by playing the communal card. But Bhagwat let the cat out of the bag and everyone came to know about the BJP's game plan to snatch quota facility from backwards and Dalits," he said, adding that the polarization among backwards and Dalits this time was more intense than in 1990. ...... In reply to another question, Lalu doubted that Modi has a 56-inch chest.

"Have you seen my chest?

Bihar exit poll 2015: Social media predicts results before exit poll forecasts
Voting was still on and exit polls were yet to go on air when posts predicting Nitish Kumar's comeback started flooding the social media. ...... Midway through the last day of polling, a poll watcher, who has spent more than 30 years in journalism, wrote on Facebook "My understanding earlier was that the grand alliance should do well in the election. Having travelled to entire Bihar, I again feel the grand alliance shall win." ...... Almost 13 hours before, another newspaper veteran had posted a similar prediction in a more categorical manner. "I'm quite bemused by the national and trans-national interest in Bihar polls. But I find no interest or concern in the well-being of Bihar. Lay off poking noses from outside. Where's the discourse on Bihar's well-being? Having said that, I stick my neck out... Nitishji will come back. I wouldn't be surprised if it is a wave poll. And allow me to add: Delhi pundits will gloat on November 8 about campaign gimmickry." ....... One Preet K S Bedi wrote around noon: Max 90 seats for the BJP+. "Apart from wishful thinking, my reasons are it is inconceivable that a CM with 50% approval rating should not win; Lalu has a loyal vote bank; Nitish supporters voted for him despite his alliance with Lalu as he would become the CM if their alliance wins...," Bedi wrote.
Bihar polls: Lalu Yadav talks grand victory while Nitish Kumar awaits verdict
Located about 250 meters from each other, two bungalows on the Circular Road in Patna present a paradoxical picture a day before the counting of votes on Saturday...... While 7 Circular road is the residence of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, ex-CM couple- Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi- are occupant of 10 Circular Road. ..... Although both -Lalu and Nitish- chatted to a group of reporters, they preferred different topics for discussion. If Lalu gave focus on the exit polls prediction during his informal chat with reporters, Nitish had little to say on the same. Both were sitting in open space...... Unlike Lalu who has gone to town to claim his massive win for the Grand Alliance, Nitish is more a listener ever since curtains came down on the polling in Bihar on November 5. ....... If he spoke, it was more about his experiences in his long political career than anything related to Bihar assembly polls. Nitish remembered how veteran socialist George Fernandes had noticed his habit to drink water after delivering speeches. "I was in habit of drinking water after delivering speeches. George Shaheb noticed my particular habit. He suggested me to prefer tea or slight warm water after my speeches. I stuck to George Saheb's suggestion. It now helps me avoid tonsil-related disorder........ "Which place you were camping on the day of polling? What was voting trend," Lalu asked a few reporters.


NDA loses lead after late surge in favour of Nitish Kumar-Lalu Prasad in Bihar: Post-poll survey
Pre-poll survey gave NDA lead of 4%; post-poll trends show Grand Alliance leading; Lalu did better than Nitish.
a distinct turnaround in favour of the Mahagathbandhan ...... As per our post-poll estimate, the Gathbandhan seem to have a lead of 4 per cent over the NDA. The Mahagathbandhan may end up with roughly 42 per cent of the votes while the NDA would have to lag behind with around 38 per cent votes. ..... The smaller parties and independents together might end up with 20 per cent votes. - ...... This election would certainly go down as one where the campaign proved to be critical. The difference in outcomes of the two surveys is also because (as the post-poll survey found) many voters finally made up their mind very late. While one fourth made up their mind either on the day of voting or a day or two before it, another 15 percent decided who to vote for only after seeing the candidates. ...... Rarely in any elections in the recent past, has such a large proportion of voters taken their voting decision at the very last minute. The survey found that the late swing of voters benefited the Mahagathbandhan. In many ways, this has been an election of several paradoxes. ....... As we had noted in the pre-poll analysis, the Mahagathbandhan began with a goodwill in favour of Nitish Kumar. At the same time, the central figure campaigning for NDA, Prime Minister Narendra Modi too, had a very robust positive image. So, it has been a contest between the state level leader and the national level leader. Another paradox is that while Nitish Kumar’s popularity and developmental record has certainly helped the Mahagathbandhan do well,

it is Lalu Yadav’s RJD which is likely to do better than the JD(U) as per our post-poll survey.



Nitish-Lalu bonhomie has spawned Jai-Veeru duos across Bihar
Before the election, there was an apprehension that JD(U) and RJD workers couldn't work together..... However, the synergy between grand alliance workers has been exceptional ......

Seeing the Nitish-Lalu bonhomie, the workers also saw themselves as Sholay's Jai and Veeru

..... Why JD(U) workers found it easier to deal with RJD as allies than the BJP ..... Take Rajkumar and Rafique for instance. While the former is an RJD worker, the latter belongs to the JD(U)....."We campaign together during the day as well. We distribute and circulate the publicity material given to us. Sometimes we also take part in door-to-door campaigning," Rafique says...... "We feel like Jai and Veeru from 'Sholay' ... but the real Jai and Veeru are Nitishji and Laluji," Rajkumar says........ Thoroughly enjoying their own joke, they begin deliberating who Gabbar Singh is and the names of the BJP's top two come up. The candidates for Samba and Kaalia are largely from the saffron party's state unit. .....

Sholay jokes apart, this bonhomie between RJD and JD(U) cadres and, to a lesser extent, Congress workers, could be seen across the state.

...... Mohammad Alamgir is an RJD worker in the Sursand constituency in Sitamarhi district. In the middle of the election campaign, he went for a pilgrimage to the Dargah of Khwaja Moinuddin Chishti at Ajmer. "I went to pray for the Mahagathbandhan's victory," he says. ...... There is very little ideological difference between the RJD and the JD(U), both of which are offshoots of the Janata Dal. And the Congress, being a marginal entity in Bihar, isn't viewed negatively by the workers of either of the parties. ..... "In fact we used to find it difficult to deal with the BJP, especially when its leaders like Giriraj Singh made communal statements," says JD(U) worker Shahid Alam. ...... On being asked why he was getting agitated, Paswan said, "Nitish Kumar is my leader in Bihar. People say I should support Ram Vilas Paswan. Why should I support him just because he belongs to my caste?"
Nitish Kumar thought of starting business after two poll defeats, says book
Following two successive defeats in the assembly elections of 1977 and 1980, current Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar had pondered to start a business ...... "Nitish's family had been getting impatient with his failures. The choice of taking up a job on the basis of his engineering degree was still there." ...... "Nitishji asked his wife Manju, who was a teacher at a government high school at her paternal village of Seodah, to give him one last chance with politics during the 1985 elections," the book titled "Ruled or Misruled" says. ....... The 339-page book mentions many interesting tales about Kumar, Lalu Prasad and Sushil Kumar Modi - all products of the 1974 movement launched by Loknayak Jayprakash Narayan.
Bihar exit polls prove wrong media pundits who handed win to Nitish-led alliance after only two phases
As exit polls reveal, both sides remain neck and neck. Of the seven exit polls that have come, four give clear advantage to the Mahagathbandhan and three to the NDA. Two exit polls, NewsX-CNX (130-140) and ABP-AC Nielsen (130) predict decisive victory for the Nitish-led alliance while two others predicted decisive victory for NDA. News24-Today Chankaya, which has often hit bullseye, predicted 155 seats for the NDA and NDTV-Hansa, which conducted a more thorough exit poll with a sample size of 76,000 and analysed it in greater detail, came out with the conclusion that the BJP-led NDA could win 120-130 seats.
‘Bihar has not changed much since my childhood’
Bihar hasn’t progressed much in terms of education and employment, he adds.
Samir Kumar is convinced that if his family is well-off today, it is because they chose to look for opportunities outside Bihar. While his father made the journey from Naraipur village in Bihar’s West Champaran district to Patna decades ago looking for opportunities, Kumar moved first from Patna to Rajasthan for “good school education” and later from Patna to Bangalore for a better life. ...... “Ultimately, Bihar is my state. But when I see the state, I realise it has not changed much since my childhood. When I compare it with places like Bangalore, I find that things are not happening’’ ...... Bihar hasn’t progressed much in terms of education and employment, he adds. “Most people in Bihar try to become an engineer, doctor or an IAS officer. When I was studying in Bihar, there was a thinking that if you don’t get a seat in the IITs, there is no point getting an engineering degree.” ..... Though he hasn’t learnt Kannada, people in Bangalore have been very accommodating, he adds. “The beauty of living in Bangalore is that the local population is very accepting of outsiders. It is not the same in other metros where you need to speak the local language in public spaces.”
Bihar results: When Modi discussed philosophy with Nitish and Lalu
Forget exit polls, Bihar's verdict will be a Game of Others
While they won't win many seats, they are capable of wrecking the ship of either alliance and the worst-hit will lose the game.
Others, consisting of independents and small parties, have been a force to reckon with in Bihar politics for the past four decades. They have played a key role in hung assemblies, especially in 1990, to elect Lalu as chief minister of the state for the first time and also in 2000 to elect Rabri as CM (though to a lesser extent as compared to 1990)....... In March 2005, others got 37 seats, which led to a hung Assembly and the imposition of President's rule for six months. In the re-elections held in October in the same year, the Nitish-led NDA (JDU+BJP) defeated Lalu's RJD to end 15 years of his infamous regime and "others" were reduced to 22 seats. Since then, their influence has reduced considerably and in 2010 when the NDA swept the state, their seat tally fell to the lowest ever: eight seats. ....... Earlier, they would win 39 to 55 seats, with vote share as high 32 per cent. ....... In untied Bihar (till 2000), the South Bihar parties demanding statehood for Jharkhand had a significant presence and were included as "others". Many independents have also been winning from Bihar (the highest being 30 in 1990). The majority of them were proverbial "bahubalis" ...... A poll of polls (7 polls- six released on Thursday, one by NDTV on Friday) shows a hung Assembly, with NDA at 118, MGB at 117 and Others at eight. If this happens, the others/independents/rebels will have the last laugh and Bihar may revisit the times of horse trading days it saw in the 1990s.


Between Bihar exit polls, a movie outing for Sushil Modi
On his part, Modi, sitting at his 4, Polo Road residence, seems sure the party will win at least 140 seats.
Having addressed 180 rallies during the polls, former deputy chief minister and BJP legislature party leader Sushil Kumar Modi looks like he has lost weight. Finally on Friday, he finds time to watch Pyar Ka Punchnama 2 with his family. ..... He does not find merit in reports claiming that a high turnout of women voters meant they voted for CM Nitish Kumar’s uniform and bicycle schemes. “Ek yojana ka labh do bar nahi milta (One scheme does not yield electoral dividends twice). After EVMs were introduced and booth capturing stopped, women started coming out to vote in bigger numbers. Second, most women whose husbands and family members live outside the state make it a point to vote. I doubt if they do not consult their husbands or elders before casting their votes.” “But there is no point taxing the mind now, when it is just a matter of hours,” he says.

Bihar: Man Of The Match

Saturday, October 31, 2015

Should The BJP Lose Bihar

There are indications the BJP might lose Bihar. Should that end up being the case, that will be testimony to the enormous sophistication of the Bihari voter. They gave the country a Prime Minister last year. This year looks they might give the country the Opposition Leader in Nitish Kumar. Modi and Nitish are easily the two most talented politicians on the Indian stage today, both having stellar records on economic growth issues. 

Last year, Modi was the only one running for Prime Minister. Rahul was not running. And there was no such thing called the Third Front. No wonder Modi won. This year in Bihar Nitish has been the only one running for Chief Minister. How can you win if you are not even running? Who was running to be the BJP Chief Minister? The most likely candidate, Sushil Modi, sounded like he was never happier than when he was deputy to Nitish. By his own admission Nitish is the superior political talent. 

But a Bihar loss might not be such bad news for Modi. He will still likely win Uttar Pradesh next year. And he might still sweep Bihar in 2019, as long as delivers and takes the economic growth rate to 10% plus by then. 

India is the most vibrant democracy on the planet. India is not China. An Opposition Leader is a good thing. 


बिहार ने देश को PM दिया, अब लग रहा है Opposition Leader भी देगा
Bihar Is Make Or Break For Modi
लालु यादव: मौसम वैज्ञानिक

Monday, July 27, 2015

18% Growth Rate For Bihar?





That is mind blowing. An 18% growth rate is mind blowing. कौन से घाट का पानी पीते हैं नीतिश? उस पानी को bottling करो।

अमरिका बेलायत ने कभी ४-५% से ज्यादा किया नहीं। वही है कि दशकों तक ४-५% करते रहो तो बहुत हो जाता है। तो जब चीन ने १०% करना शुरू किया तो पहला रिएक्शन था, "चीनके बन्दर, हम ने तो कभी ५% से ज्यादा किया नहीं और ये कह रहे हैं हम १०% कर रहे हैं? जरूर झुठ बोल रहे होंगे।"

१८% ---- ये तो बौखला देने वाली नम्बर है।

लालु ने जब रेलवे में बम्पर मुनाफा दिखाया तो लोग बौखला गए थे, पश्चिमी देश के लोग कहने लगे, "ये कौन सा मॉडल है? हमारे किताबों में कहीं है ही नहीं।" कि इतना बड़ा फ़ौज है भारतीय रेलवे के पास। कमसेकम ३ लाख लोग तो काम कर ही रहे होंगे भारतीय रेलवे के लिए। वर्षों से, दशकों से पश्चिमी देश के लोग रिपोर्ट पर रिपोर्ट लिख रहे थे, सुझाव दे रहे थे, कि भारतीय रेलवे को मुनाफे में ले जाना है तो कंटनी छंटनी करो। Downsizing करो। लोगों को नौकरी से दफा करो। तो लालु ने वैसा कुछ किया नहीं, "I am a man of the people" कहते रह गए। तो किसी को कोइ होप नहीं था कि कुछ होगा। लालु मजाकिया आदमी, लोगों को इंटरटेन करते रहेंगे --- कुछ ऐसा expectation था। लेकिन लालु ने बम्पर मुनाफा दिखा दिया। सबको आश्चर्य हुवा। उसके बाद ममता आयी, तो फिर से भारतीय रेलवे घाटे में चला गया।

अभी भी लोग ठीक से समझ नहीं पा रहे हैं, आखिर लालु ने किया तो किया क्या? आंकड़े तो हैं। क्या किया वो तो है। सबके सामने है। लेकिन कैसे किया? लोग फोर्मुला अभी तक ढूँढ रहे हैं, मिल नहीं रहा है। और लालु है कि बता नहीं रहे हैं।

और ये नीतिश का १८% ---- मेरा तो शर चकरा गया ---- आखिर कैसे? कैसे हुवा? कैसे किया आपने?

ये दोनों बिहार के जादुगर। हात की सफाइ मारते रहते हैं।

अगर बिहार १८% कर सकती है तो बाँकी भारत को १५% तो करना ही होगा। थोड़ा आप लोग भी तो करो

 

Bihar has developed in last one decade: Nitish
the state recorded a growth rate of

17.99 percent

at current price during 2014-14. In 2004-05, the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) was Rs.77,781.16 crore, which increased in 2014-15 to Rs.402,282 crore. ..... The plan expenditure was Rs.3,124.32 crore in 2004-05, which increased to Rs.43,931.61 crore,an average increase of 31.95 percent. ...... In the education sector, children in the age group of 6 -14 years were brought to school. "There were 12 percent children out of school in 2005 which now has been reduced to 1.72 percent," Nitish Kumar said. ...... He said 40 lakh children studying in class 9 received money for buying cycles. ..... Nitish Kumar said the vaccination under regular immunization was 18.6 percent in 2005, which now had increased to 78 percent. This figure is higher than the national average. ...... "The state government has constructed 66,508 km major and rural roads in the last decade. Similarly, 5,431 major bridges were constructed to improve connectivity." ....... The per capita consumption of electricity in the state increased from 70 kWh in 2005 to 203 kWh in 2015. ...... "In November 2005, average availability of power was 6 to 8 hours in the urban areas and 2 to 3 hours in rural area. But in 2015, the average availability of power in urban area is 22 to 24 hours and 15 to 16 hours in rural areas," Nitish Kumar said.


Bihar’s development record under Nitish Kumar
Kumar seems to have maintained his good track record in his second term. Bihar’s performance on many socio-economic indicators after 2005, when Kumar took over, is not only better than its own performance in the previous decade, but also of comparable states or the national average. Among the states we have taken for comparison with Bihar are Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.......... Bihar’s economic growth has been impressive under Kumar’s tenure. The average annual growth of Bihar’s economic output was the highest among selected states. Its performance in agriculture was second only to Madhya Pradesh......... Writing before the 2010 assembly elections, economist Swaminathan Aiyar attributed the economic turnaround of Bihar to improved law and order situation under Kumar. A look at the National Crime Records Bureau data shows significant reduction in crimes such as dacoity and robbery under Kumar’s tenure. ....... Bihar’s high growth can be mainly attributed to the fact that it started on a lower base. ...... Bihar has cut leakages from the public distribution system, which came down from 75-90% during the 2000s to less than 25% in 2011-12. ....... Bihar has also witnessed the second highest reduction in poverty among these states. ..... Reviving public health facilities was another of Kumar’s priorities. Although the share of health and education spending as a share of the gross state domestic product came down from 6.3% to 4.7% between 2005-06 and 2013-14, in absolute terms, there was a more than three-fold increase. The spending also appears to have been done more efficiently. ..... Bihar has managed to bring down infant mortality rates (IMR) at a faster pace than the national average. IMR is the number of dead children under one year per 1,000 live births. Although the state’s IMR is still higher than all-India levels, the gap reduced after Kumar took over. ...... One of the most popular schemes Kumar started was giving bicycles to school-going girls. This and several such efforts seem to have paid dividends in the education sector as Bihar recorded the highest improvement in retention rates among this group of states. Retention rates are defined as a percentage of students who manage to reach grade V after having enrolled in grade I. ...... Despite this progress, Bihar remains among the poorest states in terms of per capita income. Its rank in social development is close to the bottom. ..... BJP, his main opposition, is also claiming credit for the same. After all, JD(U) and BJP were in an alliance from 2005 to 2013, when Kumar walked out of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) opposing Narendra Modi’s prime ministerial candidature. The NDA swept the 2014 elections when Kumar and Yadav were not together.