Showing posts with label Uttar Pradesh. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Uttar Pradesh. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 30, 2021

प्रशांत किशोर को खुद आगे आना होगा

पश्चिम बंगाल चुनाव से पहले प्रशांत राजनीतिक कंसल्टिंग छोड़ राजनीति मे आ गए थे। नीतिश के घोषित उत्तराधिकारी बन गए थे। फिर नीतिश ने पार्टी से निकाल दिया। बीजेपी के साथ मिल के सरकार चला रहे हैं और पार्टी के उपाध्यक्ष बीजेपी के विपक्ष में बोले पर बोले जा रहे हैं। तो वो फिर राजनीतिक कंसल्टिंग करने आ गए। पश्चिम बंगाल में मारा तमाचा बीजेपी को कस के। पश्चिम बंगाल चुनाव पराजय का राष्ट्रिय महत्व है। 

उसके बाद फिर उन्होंने घोषणा किया कि छोड़ दिया ये सब। अब राजनीतिक कंसल्टिंग नहीं करेंगे। अब राजनीति करेंगे। मुझे बहुत अच्छा लगा। इतना प्रतिभाशाली आदमी। दुसरो को कब तक जिताते रहिएगा? खुद जितने की सोचिए। तो फिर मुम्बइ गए बुलाए मेहमान के तरह। लंच पर क्या खाया वो बात तो बाहर नहीं आयी। लेकिन देश की राजनीति गर्मा गयी। 

थर्ड फ्रंट, फोर्थ फ्रंट, फ़ेडरल फ्रंट, लेफ्ट फ्रंट, यहाँ तक कि युपीए सब घिसीपिटी आईडिया। २०२४ में अगर मोदी को चैलेंज करना है तो कुछ नया करना होगा। मेरे सामने चेहरा आया केजरीवाल का। लेकिन अब कुछ दिन बाद  सोंच रहा हुँ प्रशांत किशोर को ही आगे आना होगा। 

पश्चिम बंगाल चुनाव से पहले ही उन्होंने घोषणा किया था कि बिहार में बीजेपी ९२ लाख की बात करती है, उनके पास अभी से एक करोड़ बिहारी जुड़ चुके हैं। अर्थात एक नयी पार्टी। तो एक ऐसी पार्टी लांच करिए जो एक साथ पुरे हिंदी बेल्ट को स्वीप करे २०२४ में। नहीं तो कमसेकम बिहार और उत्तर प्रदेश को तो स्वीप करे ही। लोक सभा चलिए। बिहार के आर्थिक प्रगति के लिए जो काम केंद्र से दिल्ली से कर सकते हैं वो पटना से संभव ही नहीं। 

कोइ ऐसा नाम जिस में दल या पार्टी शब्द ही ना हो। नयी दिशा? एमानुएल मेक्रोन एक ही बार में सत्ता में पहुँच गए। प्रशांत किशोर अकेले वो सक्ष हैं जो वो बात भारत में कर सकते हैं। पार्टी का नाम नयी दिशा, मोर्चे का नाम नया मोर्चा। 

Prashant Kishor slammed by JD(U) chief: ‘Democracy not like running a company’ Janata Dal (United) chief RCP Singh said that Prashant Kishor has no base in Bihar. He also said that Kishor has shown prime ministerial dreams to many politicians, according to Live Hindustan. ........ He also said that the election victories in Bihar, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu were due to the voters and not any person ........ Kishor also handled the poll strategy of DMK in the Tamil Nadu assembly elections this year. He had also been a poll strategist for the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) alliance in the 2015 Bihar assembly polls. He was also roped in by the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party for the campaign in the run-up to the Delhi assembly elections. ......... Kishor was sacked from the JD(U) in January last year by Nitish Kumar who was the party chief at that time for his stand against the citizenship law that enables the government to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from three neighbouring Muslim-majority countries, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh.

Kishor had said that he will continue to be politically involved in his home state of Bihar.

Shah Rukh Khan Finds His ‘Hero’ In Prashant Kishore For Web Series As The Duo To Meet At Mannat? Prashant Kishore has previously met Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar in Mumbai, and the meeting went for nearly three hours. ......... political strategist Prashant Kishore will meet Shah Rukh Khan at his residence Mannat and discuss the web series project. While there are no details about the project but report claim that it will produce by Khan’s Red Chillies production.

Poll strategist Prashant Kishor bows out on a high Kishor is basking in the glory of the victories of TMC in WB and DMK in Tamil Nadu ......... Kishor, when asked why he wanted to quit strategising for political parties, said he has had enough of it. However, the strategist has so far had a remarkable rate of success as he has designed campaigns for some of the most prominent politicians in the country, and the Trinamool's success in what has been widely recognised as an extremely tough election, has only boosted his stock as a political tactician. ........... A former UN official who has worked in the area of social policy and strategic planning, and a public health expert by training, Kishor's first big political stint was helping Narendra Modi win his third term as chief minister of Gujarat in 2013. ..........

He emerged as Modi's key strategist for all election-related work in 2013, and he and his brainchild Citizens for Accountable Governance helped design an extremely effective campaign for Modi for the Lok Sabha elections in 2014, a highlight of which was the 'Chai Pe Charcha' gatherings.

........... his magic did not work for the Congress in the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand in 2017. .........

The political pandit believes that there can be no war without a general, and insists on the campaign having a face.

His critics, on the other hand, claim that he has been choosing to work with parties that are in any case expected to win.

प्रशांत किशोर क्या बिहार को २०% आर्थिक वृद्धि दर २० साल के लिए दे सकते हैं?

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

The Modi Suspense

Monday, May 13, 2019

India 2019: A Fractured Mandate?

the BJP may end up winning 190-210 seats, and the NDA in its current form bagging 220-240 seats....... “This may mean the NDA will have to sign up at least four large regional parties in post-poll alliance to form the government,” the brokerage said. ...... There is a big question mark on what happens to UP ....... “Depending on whom you speak to, you get a range between 20 and 60 seats for the BJP. It really is not very clear.” ...... BJP political party workers on the ground say the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) joining the BJP in a post-poll alliance cannot be ruled out. ...... the BJP has proven to be more adept in making new alliances and keeping old ones, compared with the Congress. ....... despite not being officially part of the UPA, a number of strong regional parties seem ideologically committed towards a non-BJP election outcome

N. Chandrababu Naidu: The maker of tomorrowland Naidu is looking to transform Andhra Pradesh from an agrarian to a tech-driven economy. ...... chief minister of united Andhra Pradesh from 1995 to 2004 was the catalyst that made Hyderabad the wonder that it is today, still clocks 16 hours at work. ...... In 2000, Time magazine named Naidu South Asian of the Year for turning Hyderabad, which it described as “an impoverished, rural backwater place”, into “India’s new information-technology hub”. ...... Amaravati, the capital city of the new state, is being built from scratch on the southern banks of the Krishna river ...... He believes Andhra Pradesh can become the No. 1 state by 2029 in every economic parameter ...... in the past five years his state has achieved an average GDP growth rate of 10.52% ...... Naidu’s vision is to convert a largely agrarian state into a future-focussed, technology driven economy in tune with the needs of the 21st century. ....... he is talking specifically about big data, which lies at the heart of governance in the state. “If one has the right historical and current data, one can predict and execute things much better for individuals and the community because outcomes will be closer to expectations,’’ he says. ...... Real Time Governance Society monitoring centre housed in building No. 1 of the government secretariat in Amaravati. The monitoring centre is straight out of a Hollywood sci-fi film. On one side are giant screens, or dashboards, with constantly flashing images, videos, and data monitored by a few dozen people. These dashboards provide real-time data on the status of government welfare schemes and important government projects; road traffic; deaths, marriages and births in households; first information reports filed at various police stations; and even files signed by officials and ministers. Similar centres are present across the state. ......... “We have linked all the 240 government schemes across 30 departments and created 560,000 combinations, which help us resolve issues and grievances of people on a real-time basis. It is our way of breaking down the silos of various departments and bringing everyone together on the basis of data” ....... On March 1 the government had full data on its 44.9 million citizens across 123 parameters; it had 2,000 video cameras tracking vehicles and traffic violations, 2,000 government officials conversing with 3 million people in the state to solve their grievances and issues. Babu says the government has got 18 million complaints over the past four years. .......... the tech-savvy Naidu ...... Naidu wants the 217 sq. km. Amaravati to set the standards for smart cities in India—a truly global city that will draw top global firms to set up base there. Roads and water supply will be like in Amsterdam; power supply as in Germany and the U.S.; and the “green-blue” city—called so for the 51% green cover and 10% water bodies it will boast—will have storm water management matching that in the U.K. and Malaysia. ........ To overcome the challenge of land acquisition for building Amaravati, the state went in for land pooling. Farmers who gave up their land were offered a 10-year annuity package. “We have made farmers shareholders in the development process in the new capital, without evicting them from their habitations,” says Naidu. The annuity amount will not only increase 10% every year, but farmers will also get back a part—nearly one-third—of the developed land, which they can sell in the next 10 years.......Within two-and-a-half years, land which was selling at ₹10 lakh an acre has begun to fetch ₹2 crore. “So if the farmer decides to sell the developed plot, he can make a lot of money...... “Today 20% to 30% of all mobile phones are being manufactured in AP, I want it to go up to 50% to 60%,” says Naidu. Reliance Industries has announced an electronics park for making mobiles and televisions in Tirupati; electronics manufacturers Foxconn, and TCL Corporation, too, have plans to invest there....... Further south from the banks of the Krishna river are 13 urban plazas, signifying the 13 districts in the state. Means of transport in the city will run on electricity. There will be water-taxis, dedicated tracks for cyclists and well-shaded pavements, encouraging people to walk. The green pockets in the city are modelled on New York’s Central Park and Lutyens’ Delhi....... Amaravati is expected to be built by 2025 and the AP Capital Region, which comprises parts of Guntur, Vijayawada, and Tenali, by 2028.

Chandrababu Naidu Claims Modi Won't Become PM, Asserts Four Surveys Reveal TDP Victory predicted that Modi will never become Prime Minister again ..... He added that a Congress-led coalition is to form the government in the centre.

Mamata Banerjee will play key role, says Chandrababu Naidu On Ms. Banerjee’s request, Mr. Naidu addressed the crowd in Telugu to loud cheers. ...... Kharagpur, which houses the oldest IIT in the country and serves as important hub of South Eastern Railways, has a Telugu population of about 30% 

In a scenario where the BJP-led NDA ends up with 220-230 seats, the Congress-led UPA hovers around 140-150 seats, and the rest of the parties collectively bag about 270-280 seats, it might make sense for that Federal Front to get the pick for Prime Minister, and in that crowd Chandrababu Naidu might be the most capable candidate. That he is not in the running makes it even more attractive. A Federal Front with outside support from the Congress-led UPA might be stable enough.

There seems to be a growing chorus that these are the kinds of numbers India might be looking at. The truth is nobody knows.

Naidu Prime Minister, Mayawati Defense Minister.

In case there is a fractured mandate, many member parties of the NDA and the UPA might ditch those alliances.

But should the NDA end up with something like 230, it will be in a fairly good position to make a mad dash for a few big regional parties like Naveen Patnayak in Orissa, perhaps even Mayawati. Maybe Mayawati wants to become Deputy Prime Minister. Heck, it might even rope in a once NDA partner Chandrababu Naidu, who is focused on staying Chief Minister.

Should the BJP-led NDA end up with something like 220, that would create a scenario where some non-BJP person could rise to the helm. And the best way to elect that person is to follow the simple democratic process. All the MPs would form a pool. And that pool of MPs would engage in two rounds of votes. The highest two vote-getters would go into a second round. And the one who garners a majority of votes would naturally be the leader. That person could be from a party with only 20 MPs. Why not?

The most qualified person would be Naidu. Somebody like Rahul Gandhi would be best as Convenor of the coalition: UPA-4. On this side of the aisle, Naidu is best positioned to give India a double-digit growth rate.

Chandrababu Naidu Reinforces Opposition Unity With Meets in Bengal, Delhi
Opposition meeting likely to be held by Chandrababu Naidu and Rahul Gandhi on May 21

Hypothetical Scenario
Election Results
BJP-led NDA: 220
Congress-led UPA: 140
Non-BJP, non-Congress: 185

The last two come together to form UPA-4. Pool of MPs: 325.

Election for Parliamentary Leader:
First round of votes: Rahul Gandhi: 140 votes, Chandrababu Naidu: 185 votes.
Rahul Gandhi: Convenor of UPA-4
Chandrababu Naidu: Prime Minister of India

Rahul Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee can not see eye to eye. But Naidu can talk to both.

The problem is in the process. Instead of a few leaders saying we will sit together and decide, the steps have to be (1) form the coalition, (2) pool together all MPs of the coalition, and (3) organize an election for parliamentary leader for the coalition with every MP in the pool voting.

Chandrababu Naidu interview: Tried my best to connect Telangana and AP
KCR succeeds where Chandrababu Naidu failed
N Chandrababu Naidu fumes at TD leaders for skipping meets
TDP tech advisor is whistle-blower, not thief: Chandrababu Naidu hits back at EC's charge
Kingmaker sweepstakes: Naidu outfoxes KCR Praising the Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief as a “Bengal tigress”, Naidu claimed she “would act as a kingmaker in the formation of the next government” at the Centre. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief also announced a meeting of 22 Opposition parties in Delhi, likely on May 23 to discuss government formation....... midway through the Lok Sabha elections and amidst speculation of BJP not faring as well at the hustings, KCR started distancing from it while trying to cosy up to regional, secular parties.
Jagan’s padayatra to connect with the people and the TDP government’s struggle to implement farm loan waivers are reminiscent of the 2004 political scenario.
‘Chandrababu Naidu may merge TDP with Congress’
‘Country will get a new PM, under Mamata Banerjee’s leadership’ says Chandrababu Naidu
Will Naidu merge TDP with Congress?
Afraid, nervous Modi speaks his mother tongue: Hatred

Wednesday, May 08, 2019

India 2019: The Suspense

If the BJP-led alliance is at 250 or above, it might be able to still cobble together a majority by pulling in a few parties. But if the tally is closer to 200, that opens up the distinct possibility of the emergence of a new Prime Minister. As to who that new face will be is not at all clear.

The total number of seats is 545. That puts the halfway mark at 273. There are three camps: the BJP-led alliance, the Congress-led alliance, and the unaffiliated, sometimes known as the Federal Front. It is possible the unaffiliated could emerge as the second largest block after the Congress-led alliance and seek the outside support of the Congress-led alliance. As in, the BJP-led alliance could emerge the largest but not the majority block and still have to sit out.

Or Modi could easily hit 300. It is hard to tell.

NDA: 250-300, UPA: 80-120, FF: 160-200. If the Federal Front crosses 200, it might as well claim the top job.

On election results, it is best to keep an open mind One of the great charms of Indian democracy is the power of the silent voters ....... When the counting began for the 2014 election, there was very little expectation that some four hours later India would be witnessing a clear Narendra Modi victory, an event that was subsequently to be described as a ‘wave’. As Prannoy Roy has written in a recent book, even the outcome of the tsunami election of 1984 was largely unanticipated by the pundits........ the larger suspense will persist till the morning of May 23. ....... particularly true of rural women whose voting preferences are often not robustly factored in....... In the Delhi assembly election of 2013, the Aam Aadmi Party made its electoral debut. Its campaign was enthusiastic but not very organized. That was evident on polling day when the AAP’s patchy presence contrasted with the organized approach of both the Congress and the BJP. Yet, AAP performed spectacularly and came within a whisker of upstaging the BJP as the single largest party.......... Modi’s meetings in West Bengal for example have been hugely attended. The numbers attending are also far in excess of what the BJP’s weak organizational apparatus in the state can mobilize. Indeed, the success of these meetings has forced the West Bengal chief minister to organize many more public meetings than she originally planned. In places where the crowds have not matched her expectations, she has followed the meetings with a padayatra....... the raw human emotion of an election is never captured by surveys and exit polls. This is why it is best to approach the morning of May 23 with an open mind.

BJP banks on Bengal Ground reports from three rounds of polling indicate that the party could lose a chunk of the seats it had won in 2014 ...... “We could lose around 50 seats we had won in 2014 in states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Bihar and Jharkhand. However, we are confident of springing a surprise in Bengal, Odisha and also in the Northeast to an extent to offset the losses,” one of the BJP leaders monitoring the party’s election war room in Delhi said...... “We are banking heavily on Bengal and Odisha. If we falter in these states, our tally will come down substantially,” another BJP leader said. “It would be very difficult for us to come close to the majority mark if the showing is not good in Bengal and Odisha,” the leader added....... “Our feedback shows there is a high chance of us winning between 10-15 seats in Bengal and anything between 5-10 seats in Odisha,” a BJP leader said....... The most serious losses are being feared in Uttar Pradesh, owing to the formidable BSP-SP-RLD alliance. ....The BJP has received reports of losses in Maharashtra owing to acute agrarian distress and the Congress-NCP alliance.

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Modi's Remarkable Political Maneuvers Are Nobel Peace Prize Size

Of all the heads of state on the world stage right now, Modi is the most remarkable. He promises to be the economic Gandhi of India, the Deng Xiaoping, the Lee Kuan Yew. None of the three - the Mahatma, Deng, or Lee - had to contest elections like Modi has to. And it is not just every five or four years. In India a France size election is just round the corner all the time.In that sense India is not just the largest democracy. It is a perpetual democracy. 

The true test of political leadership is if you can get the people to make short term sacrifice for long term gain, and Modi seems to have managed to do it. His grand moves of demonetization and the GST ("good and simple tax" in his words) might have dragged the growth rate down from a high of 7.9% to a still impressive 5.7% but without demonetization and the GST perhaps India could not have aspired for a growth rate of 10% or more. Now it can. 

But Modi does not have the luxury of time. The growth rate has to now go past at least 8% before he has to go back to the people in 2019 to renew his personal mandate. 

Job creation is a major hurdle. It will happen or not in the so called informal sector. Making available credit to the chaiwalas (tea sellers) of India is what will do the trick. 

On the political front Modi seems to be defying gravity. He repeated his total sweep of Uttar Pradesh. Nitish Kumar, projected by many as his most likely rival in 2019, has instead switched sides and joined him again. This would be like if John McCain were to join the Democratic Party.

Modi's challenge is to remain Prime Minister for at least 15 more years and give India sustained double digit growth rates, and then give the country a successor who will continue on that double digit path. All electoral victories however impressive will not mean much unless that economic objective is met. So far he shows all signs he will deliver. 

In his very first year as PM Modi successfully concluded India's border dispute with Bangladesh. The dispute made the Israel Palestine land dispute look like a piece of cake. Just recently he got China to step back from potential war, or at least a skirmish. These are Nobel Peace Prize size political moves. A prize that he deserves, by the way. But it will be Gandhiesque if he does not get it. There is no telling he will not fall into the white blind spot. This is Time magazine Man Of The Decade if you ask me. 

The thorn in his side continues to be the extreme right wing of his own organization. Hindu pride is fine. But anti-Muslim intolerance is offensive. If ever the BJP ends up in disgrace, that social weakness is going to be the reason why. It is the same God both Hindus and Muslims pray to. Five blind men are touching the same elephant. 

Saturday, March 18, 2017

योगी आदित्यनाथ, सुर्य नमस्कार और पिता परमेश्वर

Leave India if you are opposed to surya namaskar: Yogi Adityanath

सुर्य देव जिस पिता परमेश्वर को नमस्कार करते हैं, जिनकी अराधना करते हैं, मुसलमान उसी पिता परमेश्वर के सामने सर झुकाते हैं। इतना ज्ञान योगी आदित्यनाथ आर्जन करने का कष्ट करें।

Friday, March 10, 2017

Modi Is On A Roll

Modi is on a roll. अमरिका भी इसी तरह १०० डॉलर का नोट वापस ले ले तो दुनिया में जितने ड्रगलोर्डस हैं सब एक ही झटके में समाप्त। The most popular politician in the world is about to get even more popular.

If BJP wins Uttar Pradesh, get ready for more Modi crackdowns
As various exit polls showed on Thursday, the BJP can form a government in Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur and, most importantly, Uttar Pradesh. ...... The BJP victory in Uttar Pardesh and other states will mean popular endorsement of demonetisation. This can embolden PM Modi and encourage him to take more such sudden and extreme steps. ...... victories in recent Assembly elections can encourage him to begin his next crackdown, and this could be on benami properties. ...... An idea that has been associated a lot with PM Modi's radical reforms is a banking transaction tax replacing the income tax entirely or partly. ....... Another measures he has spoken a lot about are holding Assembly and Lok Sabha elections simultaneously and state financing of elections.
पाँच साल में दो चुनाव काफी है। लोकल, राज्य और केंद्र सब मिला के पाँच साल में दो चुनाव।

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Varanasi: Modi's Adopted City

Varanasi: Urban Chaos Or Urban Energy

I was just reading this article by a journalist friend. A few things struck me.

In the south east Nepal I grew up in the "progressive" farmers were those that were learning to use fertilizers. I come to America and "progressive"  farmers here are those moving towards organic farming.

Varanasi seems to have what a lot of cities in the west wished it had: large, excited crowds, urban energy.

Progressive cities in the west are building bike lanes and paths for dedicated foot traffic. Public transportation is the in thing.

If those attempting to transform Varanasi were to tune into some of the global conversations taking place, very easy to do online, they might realize they are starting out on a solid ground. There are positives to preserve. And what they call urban planning is too much unthinking imitations of models that are no longer thought great in the west.

The idea that the best way to build a city is by starting out on an empty plot of land is not true. The people are the city. And Varanasi seems to have that number one ingredient in plenty.

The number one thing to do would be citywide municipal WiFi. Then build a ring road around the city and make all roads inside toll roads, to relieve congestion. Turn into a city of 24/7 public buses, buses every 15 minutes. Turn it into a city of foot traffic and bike lanes. Build satellite cities outside the ring road. In a second phase build an elevated metro to criss cross the city.

Focus on WiFi, water and sanitation. Focus on safety. Focus on 24/7 electricity. Focus on public transportation.

Monday, July 11, 2016

BJP's UP Problem

ABP News Opinion Poll: BSP to win 185 seats if UP polls are held now

The BJP had the same problem in Bihar. Nobody was running for Chief Minister.

In 2014 Modi was the only one running to be Prime Minister.

If the BJP loses UP and Gujarat, it has to figure out a way to work without a majority in the upper house.

Anti-incumbency worked against Mayawati last time. This time it might work against Akhilesh.

But 2019 will be about Modi’s performance. If the growth rate has hit 10% he should see victories again in both Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, not to say Gujarat.

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Smriti Irani 1, Mayawati 0

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Kashmir And Peace

The Disputed Territory : Shown in green is Kas...
The Disputed Territory : Shown in green is Kashmiri region under Pakistani control. The orange-brown region represents Indian-controlled Jammu and Kashmir while the Aksai Chin is under Chinese occupation. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I have no desire to tow the Indian government official line on Kashmir. Heck, I don't even know what that is. I have an idea, but I have not done my homework.

But peace is everyone's desire. Palestine is thought of as the number one flashpoint in the world. I think it is Kashmir. Modi and Nawaz should work towards a permanent peace and get a shared Nobel Prize.

Of course Kashmir can be talked about. Everything can be talked about. The two sides just have to come up with the right framework.

There has to be some out of the box thinking. The two foreign ministries are in a rut. They play the same tug of war over and over again.

The larger framework is the deal Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and India signed last year. The four have agreed on an economic union within 10 years. Pakistan should start talks on the same. Pakistan eventually being part of that economic union solves the Kashmir problem, I believe. Because if the people in Pakistan and India can freely work in either country, then the question as to which country Kashmir belongs in becomes less urgent.

I think the eventual right solution is to respect the current Line Of Control and then make it pretty much meaningless through a Pakistan India economic union. There are also two Punjabs, one in Pakistan, another in India. It's the same people who live in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and the Madhesh in Nepal. You have West Bengal and Bangladesh. Kashmir is not an exception, more a rule.

Demilitarize Kashmir on both sides. That's the eventual goal. But the path to there might be tortuous. In the short term the right strategy perhaps is to stay engaged and keep the expectations low. Two full fledged democracies would have quite easily solved the problem. But in Pakistan the army and the ISI act as parallel power centers to the Prime Minister. That makes it complicated.

नेपालको बाबुराम भट्टराई र भारतका नक्सल हरु (२)
नेपालको बाबुराम भट्टराई र भारतका नक्सल हरु

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Uttar Pradesh 2017: Mayawati Deserves A Victory

Uttar Pradesh 2017: Mayawati Deserves A Victory

She seeks no alliance because deep inside she knows she can win this one. By vote share she does lead the third largest party in the country. And, foremost of all, there is an acute need for Dalit liberation in the country. Just like India had to say we are our own country, Harijans will have to say we are our own religion. We do lay claim to the Ved-Puran-Upanishad just like the Christians lay claim to the Old Testament, but we are our own religion, we are not Sanatani, and we are not Hindu, we are Harijan. We worship Ram. Our book is the Tulsidas Ramayana. Ramcharitmanas. We disown the Valmiki Ramayan as a work of slander by a Sanatani Shaitan on par with Ravana. We will build a Ram Temple, but there will be a mosque side by side. We want to co-exist with the Hindus and the Muslims, but we are nobody’s untouchables. We inhabit nobody’s caste system. We will not accept anything less than religious equality. We will outlaw all discriminatory behavior that targets Harijans. We will have the police fight and eliminate caste violence, which will be renamed religious violence. We will empower our community through education, health and entrepreneurship.

The Yadavs are the Krishna people. We Harijans are Ram people. Hare Rama, Hare Krishna. We want to spread the good word globally. And so, we are one with the Hare Rama Hare Krishna mission. We harbor no animosity towards the Yadav community, but democracy thrives on political competition. That is the best way to serve the good people of Uttar Pradesh.

Mayawati is both Harijan and a woman. She has been both in power and opposition. She has also served in Delhi as a MP. And she is in a position to fight caste violence, gender violence, and religious violence at the same time. Just like Nitish ran on a one point law and order plank in 2005, Mayawati’s one point mantra now seems to be Aman Chain, as in, law and order. If she were to elaborate on that and make it specific, she gets the Dalits, the women, and the Muslims. That would be enough to secure her a victory. Law and order really is the agenda item number one. That is the top responsibility of any state anywhere. You deliver on that one, and then you can build development and progress on top of it.

Maybe finally Uttar Pradesh’s time for double digit growth rates has come. She might even hold conversations with Nitish on that one post victory. Law and order kah ke to jit gaye, ab age ka rasta kya hai, jara bolo. Roads and bridges, schools and hospitals, ease of doing business. Waise bhi koi mysterious baat hai nahin. Abhi tak to baat obvious ho gayi hai. Jagah jagah log kar rahe hain. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are India’s heartland, the core of the Hindi belt.

She could rule Uttar Pradesh and act equi-distant to both the National Democratic Alliance and the Grand Alliance at the national level. That is also a valid option. As in, it is very possible for Mayawati to win Uttar Pradesh in 2017, and for Modi to again sweep the state in 2019. As long as the country’s growth rate is north of 10%, I don’t see how he can have a problem.

Her national agenda is not Modi or Nitish. Her national agenda is to organize the Dalits nationally. Uttar Pradesh is only a start.

Lekin pramukh mudda hai ki Harijan ko alag dharm ke rup mein samvidhan mein darj karvao. Just like Yadavs have no caste, Harijans also have no caste. Brahmins are going to have to have a standalone identity, just like the Yadavs and the Harijans. They may not build hierarchies for others. The Bramhin identity is going to have to be a cultural identity. If they disagree, sue them. Take them to court.

Gender violence, caste violence, religious violence. Dial 100 is a good idea. But many more women will have to be recruited into the police force. When an act of gender violence gets reported, the police team that shows up should have at least one female police officer. Riots can be eliminated. There should be an early warning system like for cyclones and tsunamis. Corruption and political interference have to be rooted out from law enforcement. Fast track courts have to be put in place like in Bihar. Maybe Uttar Pradesh will put 150,000 petty criminals behind bars in UP.

Dalits will have to get organized before they can be liberated, and Mayawati’s BSP is the best vehicle for that organization work nationally. Majlis might also make inroads among Muslims nationally if they toned down the rhetoric a little, and if they can show good governance in some major city and also some state. Ultimately it is about governance. You have to show you can put together an appealing political platform, then that you can build an organization and a political campaign that wins you a mandate, and once you get it that you govern, you deliver on the promises. The Majlis president has performed very well in the national parliament, but I don’t see the Majlis governing anywhere. There is work to do. Ironically, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have lots and lots of Muslims, and there people like Laloo, Nitish, Mulayam and Mayawati are eating the cake. They are not leaving much room for Majlis. Because Majlis has no governance track record in their own home territory. They are a rhetoric party so far. Harijan ke tarah Musalman ko bhi age aana hoga. Hindu ke saath per capita income parity lena hoga. Employment aur housing mein discrimination fight karna hoga. Uske liye lawmaking ki jaroorat hai.

BJP mein Modi ka leadership socially uplifting hai. The BJP could also be competing for both Dalit and Muslim votes. Why not?

Friday, December 25, 2015

India: Holding Two Elections Every Five Years

Indian general election, 2009
Indian general election, 2009 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I think that would be a great idea. The entire country has only two election dates every five years. The national elections and half the state elections are held on one day. State elections for the rest of the states are held on the other day. And all local elections are also held on one of the two days.

For the state elections it would be a good idea to get half the country (by population) vote on one day, and the other half on the other day. If you put together the North-East, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh in one basket, would that be half the country? If not add a few more adjacent states. 

Basically you get rid of the idea of mid-term elections. Parliaments do full terms. Why not? 

With the current system, you can get a decisive mandate for the Lok Sabha and still feel like you never really got a mandate. Elections are never over. There's always a major election just round the corner. Bihar is over, Uttar Pradesh is on. That is democratic chaos. 

This would also boost local bodies. You can't have a robust democracy if you don't have robust local bodies. The local bodies are the most exciting part of the democracy. The people get to actively participate. 

Because local elections can be held on either of the two days, both dates will feel like national election days. Maybe the rule should be you can't hold the state and the local election on the same day. That way states will use one date for the state level and the other for the local level election.

And the two dates should be a Sunday. 

Abhi to jo hai chaos hai. 

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

यादव और कृष्ण, हरिजन और राम: हरे राम हरे कृष्ण

जब हरे राम हरे कृष्ण वाले किसी गोरा को कन्वर्ट करते हैं तो नहीं कहते अब तुम ब्राह्मण हुवे, या वैश्य। कास्ट की बात ही नहीं होती। हिन्दु भी नहीं कहते। Krishna Consciousness.

यादव कृष्ण के संतति। हरिजन राम के भक्त। यादव का कोइ कास्ट नहीं। हरिजन का भी कोइ कास्ट नहीं। उन पर उपर से थोपा गया है। जिस तरह भारत पर विक्टोरिया ने थोप दिया। सनातनी ने हरिजन को दलित बना दिया। Colonized, Oppressed.

तो इस Oppression को ख़त्म करना होगा।

हरे राम हरे कृष्ण एक राजनीतिक कोएलिशन का भी नाम हो सकता है। लेकिन उसके बाद काम ठोस होना चाहिए। सिर्फ दलित नेता या पार्टी को वोट दे के ये Oppression खत्म नहीं होगा। उसके लिए lawmaking, law enforcement, और पाँच स पर जाना होगा। कोइ किसी को मंदिर जाने से रोकता है तो वो जुर्म नहीं है तो जुर्म बनाओ।

सनातनी अपना standalone identity बनाओ और रहो। ब्रिटेन भी एक टापु है।

कास्ट सिस्टम से बड़ा डिवाइड एंड रुल का हथियार विश्व इतिहास में दुसरा कोई बनाया ही नहीं गया। सनातनी सुरज अंग्रेज दीपक।

शायद दलित को ये कहना होगा हम हिन्दु नहीं हरिजन हैं। हमारा अलग धर्म है। हम रामभक्त हैं।

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

The Pendulum Of Democracy, Modi, And India

I feel like people are making too much out of the Bihar election. Chief Minister ka chunav tha, and the best candidate won. The only candidate won. Noone else was even running. The Bihari voter knows the difference between a national election and a state election. The media doesn't know, doesn't care.

In a democracy, the people want to feel like they are boss. And so they balance it out. US mein hi dekh lo, jis party ko White House dete hain, Congress usko nahin dete. If you have the White House, chances are you will not hold the majority of the state houses. It is because the voters are smart. They wish to balance it out.

Precisely because Modi got such a decisive mandate in 2014, he should lose all state elections to 2019. That would not mean he is not performing. I think he has been doing great work. That just means the voters are smart. They want to keep the power and balance it out.

Each state has its own dynamic. One can only hope the best candidate for Chief Minister wins. That is what is good for the country. And the 2014 mandate is supposed to last for five years.

If the Opposition is to keep the Upper House, the only choice is to elevate the debate and discussion in both houses and seek creative solutions and middle grounds. Have robust debates that go beyond posturing and position taking. Debate ke baad fusion karo.

What if the BJP were to lose Uttar Pradesh in 2017? What if Akhilesh wins another term? As long as Modi can give India a robust growth rate, he should do just fine for 2019. But that's a long way away.

Monday, December 21, 2015

Dial 100: The Second Time Akhilesh Has Impressed Me

मैं भारत में कभी रहा नहीं हुँ। हो आया हुँ बहुतो बार। वो भी बहुत पहले। लेकिन रहा नहीं हुँ। तो क्या है कि कितनी बाते मालुम नहीं होती। जैसे कि ये इमरजेंसी नंबर वाली बात। बिहार में नहीं है, लेकिन बड़े शहरों में, कुछ शहरों में होंगे शायद। मैं assume करता था। इंडिया हेरिटेज है।

पहली बार अखिलेश ने मेरे को इम्प्रेस किया जब आगरा दिल्ली सड़क के लिए land acquisition किया। ये दुसरी बार है। मैं बहुत इम्प्रेस हो गया। He is definitely finding his groove.

UP CM Akhilesh Yadav lays foundation of 'Dial-100', says it will set an example for country
"The scheme will enable the police to reach the scene of incident within 20 minutes in the rural area and the response time in urban areas will be 10 minutes in two-wheelers and 15 minutes in four-wheelers," Yadav said.
Building dial 100 from scratch: For better law and order, Akhilesh ‘improves’ emergency services
The call centre will employ 400 people, and the building will have an auditorium with a capacity to hold 500 people and an amphitheatre for about 2000 people.
Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav Saturday laid the foundation stone of the building for the proposed state-level Dial 100 emergency service’s central master coordination centre in Lucknow. ..... The service, Police Emergency Management Scheme, will be developed at the cost of Rs 2325.33 crore. ..... the scheme was designed after studying similar facilities in other states like Delhi and Gujarat, and countries like Singapore and United States. ..... the government will deploy 2500 Bolero cars in rural areas and 700 Innova cars in urban areas, along with 1600 two-wheelers, as a part of the service to handle cases of emergency.

Thursday, December 10, 2015

नीतिश को ग्रैंड अलायन्स के लिए सुझाव

  • ग्रैंड अलायन्स को एक राष्ट्रिय स्वरुप देने का प्रयास हो। 
  • सदस्य पार्टी यो को सभी तह पर एक पद एक उम्मेदवार पर जाना होगा। 
  • सदस्य पार्टी के दिल्ली में जितने सांसद हैं सब एक जगह आएंगे, वो निर्वाचक मंडल हुवा। उसमें ५०% से ज्यादा मत जो बटोरे वो ग्रैंड अलायन्स का राष्ट्रिय अध्यक्ष हुवा। 
  • वही फोर्मुला राज्य स्तर पर भी लागु हो। 
  • लेकिन ये तो संगठन वाली बात हुई। उससे ज्यादा महत्वपुर्ण बात है विज़न। Anti-BJP is not a vision. 
  • ५ स: सुशासन, शिक्षा, स्वास्थ्य, संरचना, सुलभता। 
  • लक्ष्य है डबल डिजिट ग्रोथ रेट। 

युपी में ऐसा नहीं हो सकता? मायावती और अखिलेश ५०-५० सीट डिस्ट्रीब्यूशन करें २०१७ में। जो ज्यादा सीट जितेगा वो मुख मंत्री। ये बात मायावती को बोलो तो वो कहेंगी आप अपनी हवा मिठाई घी के साथ खाओ। 

Wednesday, December 09, 2015

Bipolar Politics In India?

As Nitish Kumar Meets Assam Leader, Signs Of A Bihar-Like Formula

I have no idea what Nitish is upto, but a few days back I read he wants a Bihar repeat in Uttar Pradesh. And I was skeptical. Mayawati revolves in a world of her own. For the Nitish swearing in ceremony, her terse response was: "Jana jaroori hai kya?"

But Grand Alliance is a catchy name. It feels like a fresh start. The Third Front has been put to rest. The Federal Front never materialized, except in Mamata's brain.

Never underestimate a Bihari. Biharis are like Greeks. Ek samay ke superpower jab sirf India hi duniya tha. Modi and Nitish are the two most talented Indian politicians of their generation. Easily. Obvious baat hai. And Laloo is a powerhouse on his own. And Laloo's conviction, in a strange way, has turned him into a Nitish Hanuman, which probably would have been hard, perhaps impossible otherwise. Yane ke Laloo ko to koi pad lena nahin. Us sthiti mein political relevance hi bahut bara puraskar ho jata hai. Yane ke alag party hote bhi Laloo ke sare ke sare MP Nitish apna gin sakte hain. Bhagwan deta hai to chhappar far ke. Isi ko kahte hain.

To Bihar ke 40 MP ek nucleus ban jate hain. A national alternative can be imagined around that nucleus.

Pechinda baat ye hai ki Uttar Pradesh is galaxy mein hi nahin. Uska apna hi alag orbit hai. Kucchh planets hote hain, na is galaxy mein, na us galaxy mein. Wo between galaxies fenka jate hain. Andhere mein lattoo ki tarah golchakkar lagate rah jate hain.

Abhi desh ka rajniti na unipolar hai, na bipolar, na multi-polar. Desh ka rajniti abhi comet ki tarah hai. Sirf ek banda PM ke liye lada pichhle saal. Aur us ke pichhe ek lamba dhunwa sa hai koso tak.

To agar Grand Alliance Bihar se failte failte Assam pahunch jaye to badi baat hai. Laloo barishth neta ke rup mein sab jagah golchakkar lagate rahenge. Agar rashtriya star par hi ek Grand Alliance banti hai aur desh ke rajniti mein ek clean bi-polarization ho jati hai to wo desh ke liye, loktantr ke liye, double digit growth ke liye bahut achha hoga. PM bhi development man, Opposition Leader bhi development man ho jaye to sustained double digit growth shayad mil jaye desh ko.

Nitishism akhir hai kya? Nitish ne kabhi codify nahin kiya. Karna chahiye. Ki humne Bihar mein aise kiya. Wo dusre jagah bhi kiye jaa sakte hain. Usi tarah Laloo ko codify karna chahiye. Railway mein unhone jo kiya so kaise kiya. Kisi paschima textbook mein hi nahin hai. Laloo ke populism ("I am a man of the people!") ne western capitalism ko maat kar diya. And it is relevant to India. Jis desh mein ghans kam aadmi jyada ho, wahan people intensive economic activity ki sakht jaroorat hai shayad. Bagair katni chhantni kiye kaise logon ke marfat bumper profit karein. 

National level par Modi bahut aage hain. Indian economy ke fundamental level par itna bejod kaam ho raha hai, iska asar kuchh saal ke baad bade thos kism se padega.

Gelling the Grand Alliance at the national level is hard. Jaise Mayawati ko lo. Unhe to lagta hai BJP aur Congress ke baad hum hi to hain. To pahle unke charan sparsh karo tab koi alliance ki baat karo. Nahin to wo to mere to lagta hai chai pe bhi nahin bulayegi. Akhilesh kam nahin. Mulayam ko PM mano pahle, uske baad hi koi allaince balaince ki baat shuru ho sakti hai. Kahan na maine, kuchh planets galaxy ko hi chhod dete hain. Spin out ho jate hain. Aur Mulayam. Safal rajnitigya rahe hain. Dimag bhi shayad chalta ho. Lekin boli se to nahin lagta. Aur waise bhi wo ek apne hi kism ke Advani hain: way past retirement age. Lekin neta logon ko pata hi nahin chalta. Ghadi mein time kya hai, nabj mein daudahat banki hai bhi ki nahin. Log salam karte rahte hain. To lagta hai ek round aur dekh lete hain, rakha kya hai, log pyar de hi rahe hain.

Nitish ne Bihar mein vikas kar diya. Honestly bol raha hoon, maine kabhi kalpana bhi nahin kiya tha ki koi bhi sakhs Bihar mein vikas kar sakta hai. Like how? Where would you start? Lekin Bihar mein vikas se jyada kathin baat hai UP mein Mayawati aur Akhilesh ko ek jagah lana, usse bhi kathin unhe manana ki koi teesra neta banega. Unhe lagta hai wo hain Amrika, banki Bharat hai Fiji. Size to dekho.