Showing posts with label federal front. Show all posts
Showing posts with label federal front. Show all posts

Monday, May 13, 2019

India 2019: A Fractured Mandate?

the BJP may end up winning 190-210 seats, and the NDA in its current form bagging 220-240 seats....... “This may mean the NDA will have to sign up at least four large regional parties in post-poll alliance to form the government,” the brokerage said. ...... There is a big question mark on what happens to UP ....... “Depending on whom you speak to, you get a range between 20 and 60 seats for the BJP. It really is not very clear.” ...... BJP political party workers on the ground say the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) joining the BJP in a post-poll alliance cannot be ruled out. ...... the BJP has proven to be more adept in making new alliances and keeping old ones, compared with the Congress. ....... despite not being officially part of the UPA, a number of strong regional parties seem ideologically committed towards a non-BJP election outcome

N. Chandrababu Naidu: The maker of tomorrowland Naidu is looking to transform Andhra Pradesh from an agrarian to a tech-driven economy. ...... chief minister of united Andhra Pradesh from 1995 to 2004 was the catalyst that made Hyderabad the wonder that it is today, still clocks 16 hours at work. ...... In 2000, Time magazine named Naidu South Asian of the Year for turning Hyderabad, which it described as “an impoverished, rural backwater place”, into “India’s new information-technology hub”. ...... Amaravati, the capital city of the new state, is being built from scratch on the southern banks of the Krishna river ...... He believes Andhra Pradesh can become the No. 1 state by 2029 in every economic parameter ...... in the past five years his state has achieved an average GDP growth rate of 10.52% ...... Naidu’s vision is to convert a largely agrarian state into a future-focussed, technology driven economy in tune with the needs of the 21st century. ....... he is talking specifically about big data, which lies at the heart of governance in the state. “If one has the right historical and current data, one can predict and execute things much better for individuals and the community because outcomes will be closer to expectations,’’ he says. ...... Real Time Governance Society monitoring centre housed in building No. 1 of the government secretariat in Amaravati. The monitoring centre is straight out of a Hollywood sci-fi film. On one side are giant screens, or dashboards, with constantly flashing images, videos, and data monitored by a few dozen people. These dashboards provide real-time data on the status of government welfare schemes and important government projects; road traffic; deaths, marriages and births in households; first information reports filed at various police stations; and even files signed by officials and ministers. Similar centres are present across the state. ......... “We have linked all the 240 government schemes across 30 departments and created 560,000 combinations, which help us resolve issues and grievances of people on a real-time basis. It is our way of breaking down the silos of various departments and bringing everyone together on the basis of data” ....... On March 1 the government had full data on its 44.9 million citizens across 123 parameters; it had 2,000 video cameras tracking vehicles and traffic violations, 2,000 government officials conversing with 3 million people in the state to solve their grievances and issues. Babu says the government has got 18 million complaints over the past four years. .......... the tech-savvy Naidu ...... Naidu wants the 217 sq. km. Amaravati to set the standards for smart cities in India—a truly global city that will draw top global firms to set up base there. Roads and water supply will be like in Amsterdam; power supply as in Germany and the U.S.; and the “green-blue” city—called so for the 51% green cover and 10% water bodies it will boast—will have storm water management matching that in the U.K. and Malaysia. ........ To overcome the challenge of land acquisition for building Amaravati, the state went in for land pooling. Farmers who gave up their land were offered a 10-year annuity package. “We have made farmers shareholders in the development process in the new capital, without evicting them from their habitations,” says Naidu. The annuity amount will not only increase 10% every year, but farmers will also get back a part—nearly one-third—of the developed land, which they can sell in the next 10 years.......Within two-and-a-half years, land which was selling at ₹10 lakh an acre has begun to fetch ₹2 crore. “So if the farmer decides to sell the developed plot, he can make a lot of money...... “Today 20% to 30% of all mobile phones are being manufactured in AP, I want it to go up to 50% to 60%,” says Naidu. Reliance Industries has announced an electronics park for making mobiles and televisions in Tirupati; electronics manufacturers Foxconn, and TCL Corporation, too, have plans to invest there....... Further south from the banks of the Krishna river are 13 urban plazas, signifying the 13 districts in the state. Means of transport in the city will run on electricity. There will be water-taxis, dedicated tracks for cyclists and well-shaded pavements, encouraging people to walk. The green pockets in the city are modelled on New York’s Central Park and Lutyens’ Delhi....... Amaravati is expected to be built by 2025 and the AP Capital Region, which comprises parts of Guntur, Vijayawada, and Tenali, by 2028.

Chandrababu Naidu Claims Modi Won't Become PM, Asserts Four Surveys Reveal TDP Victory predicted that Modi will never become Prime Minister again ..... He added that a Congress-led coalition is to form the government in the centre.

Mamata Banerjee will play key role, says Chandrababu Naidu On Ms. Banerjee’s request, Mr. Naidu addressed the crowd in Telugu to loud cheers. ...... Kharagpur, which houses the oldest IIT in the country and serves as important hub of South Eastern Railways, has a Telugu population of about 30% 

In a scenario where the BJP-led NDA ends up with 220-230 seats, the Congress-led UPA hovers around 140-150 seats, and the rest of the parties collectively bag about 270-280 seats, it might make sense for that Federal Front to get the pick for Prime Minister, and in that crowd Chandrababu Naidu might be the most capable candidate. That he is not in the running makes it even more attractive. A Federal Front with outside support from the Congress-led UPA might be stable enough.

There seems to be a growing chorus that these are the kinds of numbers India might be looking at. The truth is nobody knows.

Naidu Prime Minister, Mayawati Defense Minister.

In case there is a fractured mandate, many member parties of the NDA and the UPA might ditch those alliances.

But should the NDA end up with something like 230, it will be in a fairly good position to make a mad dash for a few big regional parties like Naveen Patnayak in Orissa, perhaps even Mayawati. Maybe Mayawati wants to become Deputy Prime Minister. Heck, it might even rope in a once NDA partner Chandrababu Naidu, who is focused on staying Chief Minister.

Should the BJP-led NDA end up with something like 220, that would create a scenario where some non-BJP person could rise to the helm. And the best way to elect that person is to follow the simple democratic process. All the MPs would form a pool. And that pool of MPs would engage in two rounds of votes. The highest two vote-getters would go into a second round. And the one who garners a majority of votes would naturally be the leader. That person could be from a party with only 20 MPs. Why not?

The most qualified person would be Naidu. Somebody like Rahul Gandhi would be best as Convenor of the coalition: UPA-4. On this side of the aisle, Naidu is best positioned to give India a double-digit growth rate.

Chandrababu Naidu Reinforces Opposition Unity With Meets in Bengal, Delhi
Opposition meeting likely to be held by Chandrababu Naidu and Rahul Gandhi on May 21

Hypothetical Scenario
Election Results
BJP-led NDA: 220
Congress-led UPA: 140
Non-BJP, non-Congress: 185

The last two come together to form UPA-4. Pool of MPs: 325.

Election for Parliamentary Leader:
First round of votes: Rahul Gandhi: 140 votes, Chandrababu Naidu: 185 votes.
Rahul Gandhi: Convenor of UPA-4
Chandrababu Naidu: Prime Minister of India

Rahul Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee can not see eye to eye. But Naidu can talk to both.

The problem is in the process. Instead of a few leaders saying we will sit together and decide, the steps have to be (1) form the coalition, (2) pool together all MPs of the coalition, and (3) organize an election for parliamentary leader for the coalition with every MP in the pool voting.

Chandrababu Naidu interview: Tried my best to connect Telangana and AP
KCR succeeds where Chandrababu Naidu failed
N Chandrababu Naidu fumes at TD leaders for skipping meets
TDP tech advisor is whistle-blower, not thief: Chandrababu Naidu hits back at EC's charge
Kingmaker sweepstakes: Naidu outfoxes KCR Praising the Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief as a “Bengal tigress”, Naidu claimed she “would act as a kingmaker in the formation of the next government” at the Centre. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief also announced a meeting of 22 Opposition parties in Delhi, likely on May 23 to discuss government formation....... midway through the Lok Sabha elections and amidst speculation of BJP not faring as well at the hustings, KCR started distancing from it while trying to cosy up to regional, secular parties.
Jagan’s padayatra to connect with the people and the TDP government’s struggle to implement farm loan waivers are reminiscent of the 2004 political scenario.
‘Chandrababu Naidu may merge TDP with Congress’
‘Country will get a new PM, under Mamata Banerjee’s leadership’ says Chandrababu Naidu
Will Naidu merge TDP with Congress?
Afraid, nervous Modi speaks his mother tongue: Hatred

Tuesday, May 07, 2019

India 2019: Some Projections

Scenario 1: The BJP led alliance falls short of the halfway mark and quickly pulls in a few regional parties to form a majority. This was the talk of the town yesterday.

Scenario 2: The BJP improves on its tally from 2014. This might not be likely.

Scenario 3: The BJP does less well than in 2014 but still manages to cross the majority mark and forms another government for five years.

Scenario 4: The arithmetic is tri-polar: the BJP led alliance, the Congress-led alliance which is much smaller, and the non-BJP, non-Congress Federal Front alliance which asks the Congress for outside support to form a government.

Right now scenario one seems to be in the air. People are talking about it. But nobody knows for sure.

Somebody like the Orissa chief minister Patnayak might be willing to support the BJP led alliance in the case the need arises.