Thursday, February 10, 2011

Egypt: Suleiman Is Not An Option

Arab Democracy: What The US Needs To Do: Stay Deeply Engaged
Egypt: The Army May Not Take Over
Arab Dictators Are Shaking
Egypt: A Revolution, Not A Reform Movement
How Many People Could Mubarak Kill?
Arab Dictators Will Fall Like A House Of Cards

SHARM EL SHEIKH/EGYPT, 18MAY08 - Muhammad Hosn...Image via WikipediaThe goal of the revolution is regime change. The goal is a total ouster from power of people who are in power. Mubarak has to vacate the scene, and he has to take his entire entourage with him.

Mubarak is not an option. The military is not an option. Suleiman - I don't even know what he looks like and would like to keep it that way - is not an option.

This is a revolution, people. It will settle for nothing less than a total reshaping of Egyptian politics. Democracy's time has finally come, and no dictator or the dicatator's minion is going go get in the way.

Out, Mubarak, out. Take your entourage with you. Don't let the door hit you on your way out.
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Arab Democracy: What The US Needs To Do: Stay Deeply Engaged

Nobel Peace Prize 2009, Barack ObamaImage via WikipediaThe US is uniquely positioned to conclude the War On Terror in 2011. The Cold War lasted decades. If we play our cards right, the War On Terror will have only lasted a decade. And Barack Obama might qualify for yet another Nobel Peace Prize.

The way the War On Terror concludes is when every Arab country has been turned into a modern democracy. The roadmap is simple. People come out into the streets and shut the country down completely until the dictator vacates the seat of power. They don't have to leave the country. They just have to vacate the seat of power without engaging in any bloodshed. Then an interim government takes over. That cabinet has one year to hold elections to a constituent assembly. And that's it.

Where the US federal government comes in is there is no other entity that has the option to stay deeply engaged with all levels of the state apparatus in these countries. The idea is to stay neutral politically in the beginning, but make sure there is no bloodshed. And then once the streets have boiled over and achieved tipping point, you call for the dictator's ouster in no unclear terms. You don't incite the street protests. You don't help escalate it. But once they hit that tipping point, you stand on the side of democracy. The clearer stand you take, less bloodshed there will be, and smoother the transitions will be in those countries.

This is not the time to stay neutral. Revolution is not a spectator sport, not for those braving the streets, not for the President Of The United States, not for the Vice President Of The United States, not for the US Secretary Of State.

This momentum that took centuries to build can not be wasted. This is our opportunity to turn the tables across the Arab world. If the sexism in the Arab world has been bothering you, now is the time to act. A country that becomes a democracy starts taking steps to curb all that sexism.

Egypt: The Army May Not Take Over
Arab Dictators Are Shaking
Egypt: A Revolution, Not A Reform Movement
How Many People Could Mubarak Kill?
Arab Dictators Will Fall Like A House Of Cards
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Egypt: The Army May Not Take Over

Hosni Mubarak 2003Image via WikipediaMubarak might try to do that. He might decide to punish the people of Egypt by leaving but then handing over the reins to the top generals in the Egyptian army. That might be his way of saying if you think I was bad, how about this?

Mubarak does not have that option. The people of Egypt are not asking for a military dictatorship. That is what they have had for decades. They are in the streets asking for its end, not rejuvenation.

The mightiest army in the world is powerless in the face of a people who have woken up. And the people of Egypt have woken up.

This is how this drama ends. Mubarak leaves. He does not have to leave the country. He just vacates the seat of power. The constitution is amended to get rid of all anti human rights clauses and to make room for an interim government. An interim president - a civilian democrat like that dude who won the Nobel Prize - comes in with an interim cabinet. That interim cabinet brings in an interim constitution within six months and elections to a constituent assembly are held within a year of taking power. At that point the interim cabinet hands over power to that assembly.

That is the roadmap. The fuck with the military.

Arab Focus, Microfinance Focus
Arab Dictators Are Shaking
Egypt: A Revolution, Not A Reform Movement
How Many People Could Mubarak Kill?
Arab Dictators Will Fall Like A House Of Cards
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