Friday, October 02, 2020

Coronavirus News (249)

Trump sees approval rating increase, majority expect him to beat Biden: poll The poll was conducted in the two weeks before the first presidential debate  

'This was avoidable': Trump has been downplaying the virus from the start In recent weeks, Trump has put himself and others at risk by holding mass gatherings, some indoors, and shunning mask use while claiming the end of the virus was just around the corner.

Trump's tweet on positive coronavirus test is his most shared ever

Drudge Report, a Trump Ally in 2016, Stops Boosting Him for 2020 A rift between the president and the online news pioneer Matt Drudge is playing out in pithy headlines and needling tweets as the campaign heats up.

Bidenomics: the good the bad and the unknown Joe Biden should be more decisive and ambitious about America’s economy ..........  President Donald Trump set out to make it a brawl, even throwing a punch at the validity of the electoral process itself ......... When Mr Trump took power in 2017 he hoped to unleash the animal spirits of business by offering bosses a hotline to the Oval Office and slashing red tape and taxes. Before covid-19, bits of this plan were working, helped by loose policy at the Federal Reserve. Small-business confidence was near a 30-year high; stocks were on a tear and the wages of the poorest quartile of workers were growing by 4.7% a year, the fastest since 2008. Voters rank the economy as a priority and, were it not for the virus that record may have been enough to re-elect him. ............... The confrontation with China has yielded few concessions, while destabilising the global trading system. ........ As the 46th president, Mr Biden would alleviate some of these problems simply by being a competent administrator who believes in institutions, heeds advice and cares about outcomes. Those qualities will be needed in 2021, as perhaps 5m face long-term unemployment and many small firms confront bankruptcy. Mr Biden’s economic priority would be to pass a huge “recovery” bill, worth perhaps $2trn-3trn, depending on whether a stimulus plan passes Congress before the election. ............ He is keen on a giant, climate-friendly infrastructure boom to correct decades of underinvestment: the average American bridge is 43 years old. ....... Government research and development (r&d) has dropped from over 1.5% of gdp in 1960 to 0.7% today, just as China is mounting a serious challenge to American science. .......... He would scrap Mr Trump’s harsh restrictions on immigration, which are a threat to American competitiveness. ................. a $15 minimum wage, helping 17m workers who earn less than that today. .......... he has too little to say on boosting competition, including prising open tech monopolies. Incumbent firms and insiders often exploit complex regulations as a barrier to entry. .......... His plan to cut emissions involves targets, but shies away from a carbon tax which would harness the power of capital markets to reallocate resources. That is a missed opportunity. Just last month the Business Roundtable, representing corporate America, said it supported carbon pricing. ............... by 2050 public debt is on track to hit almost 200% of gdp 



Is Pakistan really handling the pandemic better than India? It appears to be, though the official data do not tell the whole story ........... According to both countries’ official tallies, every week of the past month has claimed more Indian lives than the entire nine months of the pandemic have in Pakistan—some 6,500. ....... Whereas India’s burden is still rising by 70,000 new cases a day, Pakistan’s caseload seems to have peaked three months ago. Its daily total of new cases has remained in the mere hundreds since early August. India’s economy has also fared far worse. The Asian Development Bank predicts that its gdp will shrink by fully 9% in the current fiscal year, compared with a contraction of 0.4% for Pakistan. ........... “We have not only managed to control the virus, stabilise our economy, but most importantly, we have been able to protect the poorest segment of our society from the worst fallouts of the lockdown,” crowed Imran Khan, Pakistan’s prime minister, in a recent video address to the un General Assembly. ...............  Rather than shut down the whole country, Pakistan adopted a piecemeal approach that focused on isolating areas where there were outbreaks and on providing cash handouts to the poorest. ............  Mr Khan’s supporters say this policy’s success was aided by the creation of a national command centre to co-ordinate regional policies and by enlisting the army, including its tentacular security apparatus, for contact-tracing efforts. Others say efficient redeployment of a national polio-eradication campaign provided more vital boots on the ground to combat covid. ............. “Basically, it is undertesting on a massive scale,” contends Ramanan Laxminarayan of Princeton University. He notes that Pakistan tests for covid at less than a quarter of India’s rate, per person, adding that the relatively poor Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, with a population equal to Pakistan’s and a similar failure to test widely, has also registered similar numbers of cases and fatalities (see chart). “Test not, find not,” says Mr Laxminarayan. “It’s the same with authoritarian regimes the world over.” ........  Just 4% of Pakistanis are over 65, for example, compared with 23% of Italians. Yet the median age in Pakistan, 23, is four years lower than India’s, and its average life expectancy, 67, is two years shorter. This puts a far smaller proportion of Pakistanis in the age bracket most vulnerable to covid. ........ Some 160m Indians travel by air annually compared with fewer than 10m Pakistanis; passenger traffic on Indian railways is 130 times greater. Mr Modi’s lockdown, ironically, first bottled tens of millions of migrant workers inside cities that were often reservoirs of covid and then, as pressure mounted to let them return to their villages, distributed the epidemic more widely. ............. the adb foresees India’s more sensitive economy springing back next year with 8% growth, whereas Pakistan’s is expected to grow just 2%. ...............  “Our lockdown may have hurt India more than the disease itself ............ A study in Islamabad in June estimated that 14.5% of the 2m people in Pakistan’s capital had already been infected ........ Health professionals warn that Pakistan, like its other big neighbour Iran, could soon find itself experiencing a second wave. ........ “At this point in time nobody should be crowing, and nobody should be declaring game over.”


Thursday, October 01, 2020

Coronavirus News (248)

 A Theory About Conspiracy Theories In a new study, psychologists tried to get a handle on the personality types that might be prone to outlandish beliefs. .......... More than 1 in 3 Americans believe that the Chinese government engineered the coronavirus as a weapon, and another third are convinced that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has exaggerated the threat of Covid-19 to undermine President Trump. ......... At its extremes, these theories include cannibals and satanic pedophiles, (courtesy of the so-called QAnon theory, circulating online); lizard-people, disguised as corporate leaders and celebrities (rooted in alien abduction stories and science fiction); and, in this year of the plague, evil scientists and governments, all conspiring to use Covid-19 for their own dark purposes. .............  People often adopt conspiracy beliefs as a balm for deep grievance. The theories afford some psychological ballast, a sense of control, an internal narrative to make sense of a world that seems senseless. ........ and a third addressed extremes, like narcissistic tendencies. (“I often have to deal with people who are less important than me.”) ............ The personality features that were solidly linked to conspiracy beliefs included some usual suspects: entitlement, self-centered impulsivity, cold-heartedness (the confident injustice collector), elevated levels of depressive moods and anxiousness (the moody figure, confined by age or circumstance). Another one emerged from the questionnaire that aimed to assess personality disorders — a pattern of thinking called “psychoticism.” ............ Psychoticism is a core feature of so-called schizo-typal personality disorder, characterized in part by “odd beliefs and magical thinking” and “paranoid ideation.” In the language of psychiatry, it is a milder form of full-blown psychosis, the recurrent delusional state that characterizes schizophrenia. It’s a pattern of magical thinking that goes well beyond garden variety superstition and usually comes across socially as disjointed, uncanny or “off.” .............. at a time like this, when people are worried about the virus, headlines like ‘Vitamin C Cures Covid’ or ‘It’s All a Hoax’ tend to travel widely. Eventually, these things reach the Crazy Uncle, who then shares it” with his like-minded network. ........... As for the bloodsucking, cartoon versions, those are likely to be keepers too, the new research suggests. They have a core constituency, and in the digital era its members are going to quickly find one another.

The Right’s Relentless Supreme Court Justice Picking Machine Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination is the fruit of decades of activity by a tightly organized network. .......... Armed with an originalist doctrine that enables subjective interpretation of the Constitution, and supported by a growing willingness to overturn precedent by jettisoning the principle of stare decisis (“to stand by things decided”), the Supreme Court will be able to knock down what remains of the liberal legal edifice constructed by the Warren Court from 1953 to 1969. .............. Judges purporting to engage in originalist analysis often project onto the Framers their own personal and political preferences. The result is an unprincipled and often patently disingenuous jurisprudence. There is no evidence, for example, for the claims advanced by originalists that the original meaning of the Equal Protection Clause prohibited affirmative action or that the original meaning of the First Amendment guaranteed corporations a constitutional right to spend unlimited amounts of money to dominate the election of public officials. Both of these claims, however, are central to today’s conservative constitutional agenda. .............  The elite constituency of conservative ideologues and rich donors that draws up the approved list of candidates to fill judicial vacancies does so behind closed doors with little transparency. ........ on Sept. 26, the network announced that it would spend “at least $10 million” in support of Barrett’s Supreme Court nomination. ....... the court is the least democratic of all institutions ..... with Barrett on the court it will be easier to find five potential votes to reverse Roe v Wade ....... To overturn Roe v. Wade, the majority would have to explain why overruling the decision is consistent with stare decisis. Justice Thomas and Judge Barrett have written about how stare decisis itself can violate the Constitution ........... No other nominee to the court, Marcus continued, has openly endorsed views as extreme as Barrett’s on the doctrine of stare decisis, the principle that the court should not lightly overrule its precedents. In a series of law review articles, Barrett makes clear that in matters of constitutional interpretation, she would not hesitate to jettison decisions with which she disagrees. .......... Taking Amy Coney Barrett at her word makes clear that she would feel quite free to reconsider Roe v. Wade. This is a very big deal. I doubt anyone on Trump’s short list would hesitate to overrule, but not everyone on the list is as transparent about it. ........... conflict can also have an integrative function and “prevent the ossification of the social system by exerting pressure for innovation and creativity.”  

Hong Kong Is China, Like It Or Not  Something had to be done, and the Chinese authorities did it. The scale and frequency of antigovernment protests has now subsided — thanks to a national security law for Hong Kong promulgated in Beijing on June 30. ...... Several prominent democracy advocates have since announced their retirement from politics, disbanded their parties or fled the city. ....... Last year’s prolonged unrest dented Hong Kong’s reputation as one of the best places in the world in which to do business. ....... For now, despite all the jitters, about 28 people have been arrested under the law. And only one person has been charged — for secession and terrorism: a 23-year-old man accused of driving a motorbike into police officers and displaying a banner that read “Liberate Hong Kong, Revolution of Our Times.” His case is being dealt with in accordance with due process and our criminal laws. ........ One person’s “severe” is someone else’s intended effect. ........ I see little chance of any compromise being reached between the authorities in Beijing and the democratic camp in Hong Kong, be it about the right to elect directly the chief executive or any other major matter. From Beijing’s point of view, democratic development in Hong Kong has brought about nothing but chaos, polarization and anti-China sentiment. .......... Under the Basic Law, Hong Kong is a special administrative region that enjoys a “high degree of autonomy” — which, by definition, means not complete autonomy, a point I labor to explain to foreign officials and politicians. Any attempt to alter Hong Kong’s formal political status and turn the city into a de facto independent political entity, or to otherwise free it of Beijing’s control, is a fundamental challenge to China’s sovereignty. .......... A realistic goal for Hong Kong ought to be remaining the freest and most international city in China and retaining its unique international status, thanks to the city’s many bilateral agreements with foreign countries and its membership in numerous international organizations. .......... Foreign governments should not benchmark what happens in Hong Kong against standards that prevail in Western countries; those are governed by a political system entirely different from China’s. Instead, they should benchmark Hong Kong against the rest of China, and measure how the city can maintain its unique characteristics — openness, a commitment to personal rights and freedoms, respect for the rule of law and the ability to reinvent itself economically. Beijing’s national security law is saving “one country, two systems” by ensuring that Hong Kong does not become a danger to China. 







5/8/23 Update: Goshen (NY) puts Third World corruption to shame, thanks to greedy, corrupt, unethical lawyers like Andra Dumais. ..... I toppled a Third World dictator and German Radio called me Robin Hood On The Internet. I am not going to get intimidated by some small-town racist. Andrea Dumais is a small-town racist. ....... You are treating me worse than the people 2,000 years ago..... The Soviet bureaucracy of a judicial process.