Iran Israel War: 6/17/25 CST: The Last 48 Hours

 

In the last 48 hours, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has seen significant developments, marked by continued military engagements and escalating tensions. Here’s a summary of key events based on available information:

• Israeli Strikes on Iran: Israel has continued its air campaign, codenamed "Operation Rising Lion," targeting Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. On June 16, 2025, Israeli airstrikes hit Iran’s state broadcaster (IRIB) during a live broadcast, killing at least one employee and disrupting operations. The Israeli military claimed the building was also used as a communications center for Iran’s armed forces. Strikes have also targeted nuclear sites, including the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility, and military infrastructure across cities like Tehran, Isfahan, and Tabriz, causing significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program and military leadership.
• Iranian Retaliatory Strikes: Iran has responded with multiple waves of ballistic missile and drone attacks on Israel. On June 16, Iranian missiles struck Tel Aviv and Haifa, killing at least eight people, including four in a residential building in Petah Tikva. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed these strikes targeted Israeli military centers and airbases. Air raid sirens were reported across Israel, with Israel’s Iron Dome and other defense systems intercepting many projectiles, though some caused damage and casualties.
• Casualties and Damage: The conflict has resulted in significant casualties. In Iran, Israeli strikes have killed over 220 people, including 20 children, and injured more than 1,000, according to Iran’s UN envoy. In Israel, Iranian retaliatory strikes have killed at least 24 people and injured nearly 600. Specific incidents include a deadly strike in Bat Yam, Israel, and widespread destruction in Tehran, including oil facilities set ablaze.
• Diplomatic Developments: Iran has urged U.S. President Donald Trump to pressure Israel for a ceasefire, offering flexibility in nuclear negotiations in return. Trump, who left the G7 summit early to address the conflict, has expressed support for Israel but also indicated a desire for a deal to end the war, warning Iran against attacking U.S. targets. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi emphasized Iran’s focus on confronting Israeli aggression but openness to diplomacy.
• International Reactions: The UN’s nuclear watchdog, IAEA, expressed concern over nuclear safety due to strikes on Iran’s atomic facilities, noting risks of radiological consequences. China condemned Israel’s actions as a violation of Iran’s sovereignty, while the U.S. has deployed additional military assets, including the USS Nimitz, to the region to support Israel and protect American interests.
• Escalation and Outlook: The conflict, now in its fifth day, shows no immediate signs of de-escalation. Israel claims to have gained aerial superiority over Tehran and aims to continue targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities. Iran has vowed a “crushing response” and is reportedly preparing for a significant missile attack. Both sides have issued evacuation warnings, and fears of a wider regional war persist, potentially involving the U.S. and other powers.

These events reflect a rapidly evolving and highly volatile situation, with both sides intensifying their military operations and global powers closely monitoring the developments.

Scenario: Collapse of Iranian Regime and Resolution of Iran-Israel Conflict

Background: In this hypothetical scenario, the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, as of June 17, 2025, has reached a critical turning point. Iran, having exhausted its arsenal of approximately 2,000 ballistic missiles and drones in repeated retaliatory strikes, has inflicted minimal damage on Israel due to the effectiveness of Israel’s multilayered defense systems, including Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow. Meanwhile, Israel’s sustained air campaign, "Operation Rising Lion," has systematically targeted and destroyed significant portions of Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, crippling its capacity to wage war or pursue its nuclear ambitions.

Sequence of Events:

1. Depletion of Iran’s Missile Arsenal (June 15–17, 2025):
   • Iran launches multiple waves of missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Jerusalem, in response to Israeli airstrikes. However, Israel’s advanced defense systems intercept over 90% of the projectiles, resulting in only isolated damage to civilian infrastructure and fewer than 50 casualties. The attacks, while disruptive, fail to significantly impair Israel’s military or economic capabilities.
   • By June 17, Iran’s missile stockpile, estimated at 2,000 ballistic and cruise missiles, is depleted due to the intensity of the launches and Israel’s preemptive strikes on missile production and storage facilities. Iran’s ability to project power externally is severely diminished.
2. Israeli Strikes Devastate Iranian Infrastructure (June 16–18, 2025):
   • Israel’s air force, leveraging F-35 stealth jets and precision-guided munitions, conducts relentless strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities (Natanz, Fordow, and Bushehr), destroying uranium enrichment centrifuges, research reactors, and key components of the nuclear supply chain. IAEA inspections later confirm that Iran’s nuclear program is set back by at least a decade.
   • Military targets, including IRGC command centers, airbases, and missile production factories in Tehran, Isfahan, and Tabriz, are heavily damaged. Key IRGC leaders are killed in targeted strikes, creating a leadership vacuum within Iran’s military.
   • Iran’s oil refineries and power grid are also hit, causing widespread blackouts and economic disruption. Civilian casualties are significant, with over 1,500 deaths reported, fueling domestic unrest.
3. Collapse of the Iranian Regime (June 19–20, 2025):
   • The combination of military defeats, economic collapse, and public outrage over the regime’s inability to protect the nation sparks massive protests across Iran, particularly in Tehran, Mashhad, and Shiraz. Protesters, emboldened by the regime’s weakened state, storm government buildings, including IRIB headquarters and the parliament.
   • Internal divisions within the IRGC and the clerical establishment deepen, with some factions refusing to suppress protests, citing the regime’s loss of legitimacy. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and key loyalists flee to an undisclosed location, while others are arrested by mutinous security forces.
   • On June 20, the Islamic Republic’s government collapses as senior officials resign en masse, and a coalition of reformist politicians, dissident military officers, and civil society leaders declares an interim government.
4. Interim Government and Policy Shifts (June 21–30, 2025):
   • The interim government, led by a council of technocrats and moderate former officials, announces its intention to stabilize the country and pursue peace. It issues a public pledge to dismantle Iran’s entire nuclear program, inviting IAEA inspectors to oversee the process and verify compliance.
   • The interim government also commits to holding free and fair elections within six months to form a constituent assembly tasked with drafting a new constitution. This move is widely supported by the Iranian public, who demand democratic reforms and an end to theocratic rule.
   • To signal goodwill, the interim government halts all support for proxy groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, redirecting resources to domestic reconstruction.
5. International Response and Lifting of Sanctions (July 1–15, 2025):
   • The United States, European Union, and other Western powers welcome the interim government’s commitments. Following rapid negotiations, Iran agrees to a comprehensive deal: complete nuclear disarmament in exchange for the immediate lifting of all economic sanctions imposed since 1979.
   • On July 10, the UN Security Council unanimously votes to lift sanctions, citing Iran’s verified destruction of nuclear facilities and the interim government’s transparent cooperation. The U.S. and EU also unfreeze Iran’s overseas assets, estimated at $150 billion, to aid economic recovery.
   • Israel, while initially skeptical, agrees to a ceasefire brokered by the U.S. and Egypt, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declaring that Israel’s objectives—neutralizing Iran’s nuclear threat and weakening its military—have been achieved.
6. Aftermath and Regional Implications (July–December 2025):
   • Iran’s economy begins to recover as oil exports resume and foreign investment flows in. The interim government prioritizes rebuilding infrastructure and addressing humanitarian needs, gaining cautious support from a war-weary population.
   • The constituent assembly elections in December 2025 are monitored by international observers and deemed largely free and fair, paving the way for a new, secular-leaning government. The new constitution emphasizes democratic governance and human rights, though tensions remain with hardline factions.
   • In the region, the collapse of Iran’s regime weakens its proxies, leading to a temporary reduction in hostilities in Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria. Israel strengthens its regional alliances, particularly with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, under the expanded Abraham Accords.
   • Globally, the resolution of the Iran-Israel conflict is hailed as a diplomatic breakthrough, though concerns linger about Iran’s long-term stability and the potential for internal power struggles.

Key Outcomes:

• Iran: The Islamic Republic is replaced by a transitional government moving toward democracy. The nuclear program is dismantled, and economic sanctions are lifted, enabling recovery but requiring careful management of internal divisions.
• Israel: Emerges as a dominant regional power, having neutralized Iran’s nuclear threat with minimal domestic damage. Its defense systems and military strategy are lauded globally.
• Global Impact: The lifting of sanctions and Iran’s reintegration into the global economy stabilize oil markets, while the de-escalation reduces the risk of a broader Middle East war. The U.S. and its allies gain a diplomatic victory, though they remain vigilant about Iran’s future trajectory.

This scenario envisions a rapid, transformative resolution driven by military, political, and diplomatic developments, leading to a fundamentally altered regional landscape.

Below is a Twitter thread summarizing the hypothetical scenario where Iran depletes its missile arsenal, Israel destroys much of Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, the Iranian regime collapses, an interim government pledges to end the nuclear program and hold elections, and sanctions are lifted. The thread is designed to be concise, engaging, and within Twitter’s character limits (280 characters per tweet).

---

Thread: A New Dawn in the Iran-Israel Conflict?
1/ BREAKING: Iran’s 2,000-missile arsenal is depleted after failed strikes on Israel. Israel’s Iron Dome holds strong, with minimal damage. Meanwhile, Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” devastates Iran’s nuclear sites & military bases. #IranIsraelWar

2/ Israel’s F-35s obliterate Natanz, Fordow, & IRGC command centers. Iran’s nuclear program set back a decade. Oil refineries burn, blackouts spread. Over 1,500 dead in Iran, sparking fury against the regime. #MiddleEast

3/ COLLAPSE: Protests erupt in Tehran, Mashhad. IRGC fractures, Khamenei flees. Interim government of reformists & technocrats takes over, vows to end nuclear program & hold elections. A turning point? #Iran

4/ Interim gov invites IAEA to verify nuclear dismantle. Pledges free elections for new constitution in 6 months. Halts support for Hezbollah, Houthis. Iran signals peace, but can it deliver? #Diplomacy

5/ GLOBAL WIN: UN lifts all sanctions on Iran after nuclear deal. $150B in assets unfrozen. Israel agrees to ceasefire via US-Egypt talks. Oil markets stabilize, region breathes easier. #SanctionsLifted

6/ Dec 2025: Iran holds elections for constituent assembly, deemed fair by observers. New secular-leaning gov forms. Israel strengthens Abraham Accords. Proxies weaken. A new Middle East? #Democracy

7/ Challenges remain: Iran’s internal divisions, hardline factions. But for now, a historic de-escalation. Could this be the end of decades of hostility? What’s next for Iran, Israel, & the region? #PeacePossible

END Share your thoughts below!

---

Thread: A New Dawn in the Iran-Israel Conflict? 🧵
Hypothetical Scenario: Collapse of Iranian Regime and Resolution of Iran-Israel Conflict

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) June 17, 2025