The Trump–Netanyahu 20-Point Gaza Peace Plan: Promise and Peril
Introduction
On September 29, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unveiled what they called a “historic” Gaza peace plan. Framed as a 20-point U.S.-sponsored framework, the plan aims to halt the ongoing war by imposing an immediate ceasefire, securing hostage releases, dismantling Hamas’s military infrastructure, and setting the stage for reconstruction under international oversight.
The White House described the initiative as an ambitious attempt to “end the conflict once and for all,” blending elements of Trump’s 2020 “Deal of the Century” with components of the Saudi–French “New York Declaration” earlier in 2025. Yet, the plan’s hallmark is its explicit exclusion of Hamas from governance and the introduction of a powerful international oversight body—the “Board of Peace”—chaired by Trump himself.
The 20 Points: Core Provisions
Although numbering varies slightly across sources, the following elements form the backbone of the framework:
Immediate Cessation of Hostilities: Airstrikes, ground incursions, and rocket fire must end as soon as both sides agree.
Hostage Release: Within 72 hours, Hamas must release all remaining hostages (estimated 48, including 20 believed alive).
Prisoner Exchange: Israel will release 250 Palestinians serving life sentences.
Release of Post-October 7 Detainees: 1,700 Gazans detained since October 2023—including all women and children—will be freed.
Exchange of Remains: For each Israeli hostage’s body, Israel will return 15 deceased Palestinians’ remains.
Staged Israeli Troop Withdrawal: Phased pullout linked to Hamas disarmament and deployment of an international stabilization force.
Security Perimeter: Israel retains a buffer presence along Gaza’s borders.
Exclusion of Hamas: Hamas barred from direct or indirect governance.
Demolition of Military Infrastructure: All tunnels, rockets, and weapons facilities dismantled and not rebuilt.
Amnesty: Hamas members who surrender arms and pledge peaceful coexistence receive amnesty.
Safe Passage: Hamas cadres wishing to leave Gaza are offered safe passage abroad.
International Stabilization Force (ISF) – Disarmament Role: Ensures weapons decommissioning under independent monitors with an internationally funded buy-back program.
ISF – Training Role: Trains vetted Palestinian police to assume law enforcement duties.
Unimpeded Humanitarian Aid: UN, Red Crescent, and NGOs oversee aid delivery, including water, power, hospitals, bakeries, and reopening of Rafah crossing.
No Forced Displacement: Explicit rejection of mass expulsion or annexation.
International Reconstruction Coalition: Job creation, economic revitalization, and infrastructure rebuilding under global leadership.
Oversight by “Board of Peace”: Chaired by Trump, with figures such as Tony Blair, to supervise governance and funding until reforms take hold.
Palestinian Authority (PA) Reforms: Governance reforms and elections within a year to re-empower the PA in Gaza.
Pathway to Statehood: If reforms succeed and security stabilizes, conditions for Palestinian self-determination and statehood could emerge, supported by regional guarantees.
Additional clauses envision a special economic zone with tariff preferences and commitments to peaceful coexistence.
Early Reactions
Israel: Netanyahu welcomed the plan but reiterated opposition to Palestinian statehood, creating internal contradictions.
Hamas: Yet to issue a formal response, but initial statements suggest skepticism, particularly over disarmament demands.
Arab States: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, and the UAE cautiously engaged, seeing the plan as one option among competing frameworks.
United States: Trump framed the initiative as “beyond very close” to success but warned that rejection would mean full U.S. backing for Israel to “finish the job.”
Overview of Criticisms
Despite the ambitious framing, the plan has faced strong criticism from Palestinians, international analysts, and policy experts.
1. Bias Toward Israel and Lack of Palestinian Input
Drafted without Palestinian consultation; Hamas excluded entirely.
Seen as imposing terms rather than negotiating.
Offers no binding commitment from Israel to end occupation or halt settlement expansion in the West Bank.
Critics describe it as a “blueprint for domination” or a “surrender document.”
2. Inconsistencies Between Trump and Netanyahu
The plan envisions international forces and eventual PA control, but Netanyahu insists Israel will retain indefinite security authority.
Trump hints at statehood; Netanyahu categorically rejects it.
Amnesty provisions clash with Netanyahu’s vow to “destroy Hamas.”
Observers argue Netanyahu supports the plan mainly to trigger Hamas rejection and justify further war.
3. Unrealistic Demands on Hamas and Risk of Escalation
Demands total disarmament and political exclusion—highly unlikely concessions.
Hostage release deadline of 72 hours deemed impractical.
Analysts warn rejection could become a pretext for intensified Israeli operations with U.S. endorsement.
4. Vague and Undefined Elements
No clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal.
Pathway to statehood conditional, vague, and subject to Israeli approval.
No clarity on UNRWA’s role or the status of the West Bank.
Critics liken it to a “house of cards” built on “ifs and buts.”
5. Governance and Reconstruction Concerns
Oversight by a Trump-chaired “Board of Peace” evokes colonial overtones and questions of impartiality.
Interim technocratic administration excludes local democratic legitimacy.
Critics see reconstruction promises (e.g., “riviera-style” megacities) as cover for displacement and dependency.
6. Broader Implications
Compared to past failed initiatives like Trump’s Ukraine “peace plan.”
Involvement of Jared Kushner raises concerns of bias.
By ignoring occupation and settlement issues, critics argue the plan entrenches, rather than resolves, root causes.
Conclusion
The Trump–Netanyahu Gaza Peace Plan is bold in scope but fragile in design. Its emphasis on Hamas’s exclusion, rapid hostage releases, and internationalized governance represents a maximalist approach with little input from Palestinians. While it may provide Israel with diplomatic cover and U.S. support, the absence of enforceable guarantees and contradictions between Trump and Netanyahu cast doubt on its viability.
If accepted, the plan could deliver a tenuous ceasefire and open a pathway—however conditional—toward Palestinian self-determination. If rejected, it risks justifying a new round of devastating escalation.
Either way, the plan underscores the persistent challenge of Middle East peace efforts: balancing security for Israel, rights for Palestinians, and credibility for international mediators.
We welcome President Donald J. Trump’s announcement of a comprehensive plan to end the Gaza conflict. It provides a viable pathway to long term and sustainable peace, security and development for the Palestinian and Israeli people, as also for the larger West Asian region. We…
๐จ This isn’t a “peace plan.” It’s a colonial takeover rebranded as peace — a “Board of Peace” run by Trump & Tony Blair is like putting the fox in charge of the henhouse.
๐ Every time imperial powers said “peace,” nations lost land, sovereignty & resources. ๐ Gaza deserves…
Escalating Global Tensions: A Crossroads for International Stability
In September 2025, the world witnessed a rapid succession of geopolitical flashpoints that underscored how fragile the international system has become. Within a span of just a few weeks, Israel extended its military campaign to the Gulf by striking Hamas targets in Qatar, Russian drones violated Polish airspace during one of Moscow’s largest aerial assaults on Ukraine, and Saudi Arabia signed a historic mutual defense pact with Pakistan.
Individually, each of these events would have been alarming. Together, they paint a picture of a world sliding toward instability, where long-standing norms of sovereignty, deterrence, and mediation are being eroded. This article examines each of these crises, their interconnections, and their implications for the global order.
Israel’s Strike in Qatar: Redefining the Battlefield
On September 9, Israeli missiles struck targets in Doha, Qatar, killing at least six people and damaging multiple buildings. The attack reportedly targeted Hamas leadership figures believed to be operating from Qatari soil. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended the operation as a pre-emptive strike, warning that “no safe haven” would protect those threatening Israel.
For Qatar, a country that has positioned itself as a neutral broker in Middle East conflicts, the assault was a political earthquake. Doha has mediated ceasefires between Israel and Hamas, facilitated prisoner exchanges, and coordinated humanitarian aid to Gaza. By hitting inside Qatar, Israel not only violated the sovereignty of a Gulf monarchy but also jeopardized a diplomatic channel long relied upon by Washington and European capitals.
The move rattled regional geopolitics. Qatar hosts the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East, and American officials were reportedly caught off guard by the strike. Arab states condemned the attack as a dangerous precedent, while analysts warned it could push Gulf states to harden positions in future negotiations. The symbolism was stark: even a country that stayed out of direct confrontation is no longer immune from the ripple effects of the Gaza war.
Russian Drones Over Poland: NATO on the Edge
Just hours after Israel’s strike, another crisis unfolded in Europe. Between September 9 and 10, at least 19 Russian drones strayed into Polish airspace during a massive aerial offensive against Ukraine. Poland scrambled its air force, downing several drones—the first time a NATO member state has engaged in direct fire against Russian assets since the war began in 2022.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that Moscow deliberately targeted Polish territory as part of its strategy to “test NATO’s patience.” Intelligence officials remain divided on whether the incursion was intentional or the result of navigational error, but the implications were unmistakable: the war in Ukraine is no longer confined to Ukraine.
The incident reignited fears of escalation under NATO’s Article 5, which commits members to collective defense. While the alliance has so far exercised restraint, the risk of miscalculation looms. A drone crash in a Polish village in 2022 killed two civilians; this latest episode demonstrates how quickly the conflict could spiral into direct NATO–Russia confrontation. Meanwhile, Russia continues to weaponize brinkmanship, probing for alliance weaknesses as Western unity shows signs of fatigue amid economic pressures and political divisions.
The Saudi–Pakistan Defense Pact: A New Axis in the Gulf
On September 17, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed a landmark mutual defense agreement in Riyadh. The pact commits the two nations to come to each other’s aid in the event of external aggression. While Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have long enjoyed close security ties—Saudi financing has supported Pakistan’s economy and defense industry for decades—this marks the first time the relationship has been formalized into a treaty.
The timing is significant. With Iran continuing to expand its regional influence and U.S. security guarantees perceived as unreliable, Riyadh is hedging its bets. Pakistan, meanwhile, brings a unique deterrent to the table: nuclear weapons. Though the pact does not explicitly mention nuclear sharing, analysts warn it could pave the way for Saudi Arabia to seek a “nuclear umbrella” outside traditional Western frameworks.
For South Asia, the consequences are equally complex. If India were to clash with Pakistan, would Saudi Arabia be drawn in militarily? Could Gulf rivalries now carry nuclear undertones? Critics caution that the pact may be more symbolic than operational, but in an era of fluid alliances, symbolism itself can alter strategic calculations.
Interconnections: A Multipolar World in Flux
The simultaneity of these events is not coincidental. Each reflects the unraveling of a U.S.-led unipolar order and the emergence of a multipolar world where middle powers act assertively, often disregarding established norms.
Israel’s strike in Qatar signals a willingness to extend conflict zones beyond traditional battlefields.
Russia’s drone incursion into NATO airspace tests red lines in Europe.
The Saudi–Pakistan pact underscores the creation of new, non-Western security architectures.
Together, these developments suggest a permissive environment where states exploit distractions elsewhere to push boundaries. They also reflect a global system strained by wars in Ukraine and Gaza, contested energy supplies, fragile supply chains, and resurgent nationalism.
Implications: Between Restraint and Escalation
These “lines crossed” have three major implications for global stability:
Erosion of Diplomatic Sanctuaries – Qatar’s mediation role may weaken, leaving fewer neutral spaces for dialogue.
Normalization of Escalation – Drone incursions and cross-border strikes risk becoming routine, increasing chances of miscalculation.
New Security Architectures – The Saudi–Pakistan pact shows that countries are bypassing traditional alliances, raising risks of parallel defense blocs.
Still, opportunities for de-escalation remain. NATO’s measured handling of the Polish incident, and Qatar’s decision to continue humanitarian mediation despite the strike, suggest that restraint is still valued. The UN General Assembly has become a focal point for diplomatic engagement, though its ability to enforce norms is limited.
Ultimately, the crossroads of September 2025 reveals a world in transition: one where the institutions and guardrails of the 20th century no longer suffice, and where the future depends on whether major powers choose cooperation or confrontation.
Trump, the WTO, and the Perils of a Fractured Multipolar World
In 2025, global stability has been tested on multiple fronts—from escalating wars to shifting alliances—but few events have been as destabilizing as U.S. President Donald Trump’s singular dismantling of the World Trade Organization (WTO). For decades, the WTO was the anchor of the global trading system, enforcing rules, mediating disputes, and offering smaller economies a sense of protection against the whims of powerful states. By undermining it, Washington has not only weakened a key international institution but has accelerated the fragmentation of the global order.
Trump’s actions on the domestic front have only added to the volatility. With sweeping tariffs, deregulation campaigns, and an “America First” economic agenda that prioritizes unilateral action over collective frameworks, the U.S. is sending a clear message: it is willing to bypass the international system it once championed.
The WTO’s Collapse: End of an Era
The WTO has long faced criticism for being slow, overly bureaucratic, and at times ill-equipped to deal with 21st-century challenges such as digital trade, climate-linked commerce, and supply chain security. Yet, its existence provided predictability and a rules-based framework that restrained trade wars.
Trump’s decision to effectively dismantle the organization—by blocking appointments, refusing compliance with rulings, and launching sweeping tariffs that defy WTO guidelines—has rendered it toothless. For many nations, the collapse signals a return to the 1930s-style trade blocs, where power rather than principle determines outcomes.
This collapse has emboldened regional groupings such as BRICS+ and driven bilateral trade deals, often on unequal terms. Developing nations that once relied on WTO mechanisms for fair arbitration now find themselves vulnerable to coercion by economic giants.
A Multipolar World—By Default, Not Design
The weakening of global institutions has coincided with the rise of multipolarity. China, India, the EU, Russia, and regional coalitions are all asserting themselves more forcefully, filling the vacuum left by American retrenchment. In theory, a multipolar world need not be inherently unstable. Balanced power among several players could allow for a more inclusive system where no single state dominates.
However, what is unfolding is a disorderly shift. Instead of coordinated reform, multipolarity is emerging through conflict, unilateralism, and economic coercion. Without mechanisms of trust, dialogue, and arbitration, the new order risks being one of confrontation rather than cooperation.
The Case for Dialogue and Cooperation
There is still a path to a less disruptive transition. Multipolarity can be managed if major powers recognize the need for shared institutions—even if reformed ones. A reimagined global trade body, designed for modern realities, could restore predictability while allowing space for regional diversity. Enhanced dialogue through forums like the G20 and UN can help prevent rivalries from hardening into permanent fractures.
Moreover, cooperation on pressing global challenges—climate change, pandemics, cyber threats, and financial stability—remains possible only through multilateral engagement. The alternative is a fragmented system where crises are met with narrow, short-term responses, amplifying instability.
Rising Tensions, Shrinking Options
The greatest obstacle to such cooperation is the escalating cycle of tensions. From Ukraine to Gaza, from tariffs to technology bans, states are increasingly turning inward or weaponizing interdependence. Each move away from dialogue reinforces distrust, making it harder to build the cooperative frameworks that multipolarity requires.
The paradox is clear: the world is moving toward multipolarity regardless of intention, but whether that future is stable or volatile depends on the choices made now. More dialogue and cooperation offer a chance for a softer landing. Continued unilateralism, however, risks ensuring that the collapse of the WTO is remembered not just as the end of an institution, but as the beginning of a fractured era.
Israel’s Endgame in Gaza: Security, Control, and the Death of the Two-State Solution?
In 2025, Israel’s policy trajectory in Gaza has become increasingly clear: assert indefinite security dominance, dismantle Hamas as both a governing authority and a fighting force, and block any pathway to a sovereign Palestinian state. This vision—repeatedly articulated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and reinforced through Israeli military and political actions—marks a decisive break from decades of international diplomacy centered on a two-state solution.
Analysts argue this course risks creating a perpetual low-intensity conflict, sometimes described as a “forever war,” in which Israel maintains a semi-permanent military presence in Gaza to suppress insurgency while avoiding the political concessions of sovereignty or reconstruction.
Escalation After the Ceasefire Breakdown
The fragile ceasefire of March 2025 collapsed within weeks, with Israel intensifying airstrikes and ground incursions, citing renewed Hamas rocket fire and tunnel activity. In July, Netanyahu’s cabinet authorized full Israeli control over Gaza City, signaling a shift from limited incursions to comprehensive occupation. By September, Israeli tanks and infantry patrols operated openly across the Strip, while humanitarian access was heavily restricted.
Think tanks such as the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) have noted that Israel’s current trajectory resembles counterinsurgency campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan—military domination without a political settlement. The danger, they warn, lies in indefinite occupation: suppressing violence without resolving its root causes.
Possible Scenarios Ahead
1. Military Occupation and Security Governance
Israel may replicate aspects of its West Bank strategy, maintaining military authority while delegating limited civil functions to local Palestinian bodies or international NGOs. This model provides Israel with veto power over security decisions while avoiding the legal and diplomatic costs of outright annexation.
2. Humanitarian Fallout and Displacement
The humanitarian situation has deteriorated sharply. As of mid-2025, UN agencies estimate over 1.9 million Gazans—nearly 80% of the population—have been displaced, many forced into overcrowded camps in Rafah or temporary shelters. Humanitarian groups warn of a creeping policy of “depopulation by attrition,” whereby life in northern Gaza is rendered uninhabitable, pushing residents southward or abroad.
3. Regional and Diplomatic Constraints
While the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar have intermittently brokered temporary pauses, a durable ceasefire remains elusive. Escalation risks spillover into Lebanon, the West Bank, or even direct confrontation with Hezbollah. Diplomatically, Israel faces growing isolation as countries such as the U.K., Canada, and Australia have formally recognized Palestinian statehood.
Netanyahu’s “No State West of the Jordan” Doctrine
On September 21, 2025, Netanyahu declared unequivocally: “There will be no Palestinian state west of the Jordan River.” This statement, issued just days after multiple Western governments recognized Palestine, represents an explicit rejection of the two-state framework.
Policy Implications:
Settlement Expansion: Israel has approved thousands of new units in the West Bank, including in areas like E1 and the Jordan Valley—moves designed to fragment Palestinian territory and make a contiguous state geographically impossible.
Annexation Pressure: Right-wing coalition partners are pressing for outright annexation of large swaths of the West Bank, including strategic agricultural and border areas.
Diplomatic Pushback: Israel has defied calls from the U.S., EU, and UN to halt settlement expansion. While this risks greater international isolation, domestic political momentum strongly favors Netanyahu’s stance.
The Palestinian Predicament: Displacement Without Resolution
Israel’s policies do not formally call for mass expulsion, but the cumulative effect of military operations, settlement activity, and restricted mobility points toward long-term displacement.
Gaza: Nearly two million displaced, with international aid severely curtailed. Egypt has reinforced its Rafah border, rejecting any plan to relocate Gazans to Sinai.
West Bank: Palestinians face creeping eviction from strategic areas, pushed into isolated urban enclaves like Ramallah, Hebron, and Nablus.
Diaspora Expansion: With opportunities dwindling, more Palestinians seek asylum or migration abroad, adding to Jordan’s already significant Palestinian population and straining European migration systems.
Critics compare these dynamics to “demographic engineering by attrition,” arguing that Israel’s goal is not immediate expulsion but the gradual erosion of Palestinian viability as a political and demographic entity.
The Long-Term Outlook
Israel’s endgame—securing territorial and security control without permitting Palestinian sovereignty—appears increasingly entrenched. Supporters view it as necessary to prevent the emergence of what Netanyahu calls a “terror state.” Detractors warn it will radicalize new generations, deepen humanitarian catastrophe, and leave Israel diplomatically isolated.
Unless external intervention reshapes the playing field—such as a dramatic U.S. policy reversal after the 2026 elections or a region-wide diplomatic breakthrough—the most likely outcome is a grinding status quo: Israeli dominance punctuated by recurring violence, with no clear resolution in sight.
Netanyahu and the Israeli Right: Arguments Against a Palestinian State and Alternative Proposals
The debate over Palestinian statehood remains one of the most divisive issues in Middle Eastern politics. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel’s right-wing political spectrum—including parties such as Likud, Jewish Home, and New Right—have consistently rejected the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state. Their opposition is rooted in security concerns, historical and ideological claims to the land, and skepticism about Palestinian leadership and intentions.
These arguments have hardened in recent years, particularly after the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks that killed more than 1,200 Israelis and sparked the bloodiest phase of the conflict in decades. Against this backdrop, the Israeli right has advanced a vision of permanent Israeli control, settlement expansion, and fragmented Palestinian autonomy in place of full statehood.
Core Arguments Against a Palestinian State
1. Security Risks and the Fear of a “Terror State”
Netanyahu has long warned that an independent Palestine would become a “terror state in the heart of our land.” He points to the October 7 massacre as evidence that Palestinian groups cannot be trusted with sovereignty. Israeli officials cite polls showing that 72% of Palestinians approved of the October 7 attack, arguing this reflects widespread hostility to coexistence.
The Palestinian Authority’s payment of stipends to families of convicted militants, along with anti-Israel rhetoric in school curricula and state-run media, are frequently cited as proof that a Palestinian state would institutionalize hostility. Right-wing leaders such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir echo these claims, insisting that statehood is fundamentally incompatible with Israeli security.
2. Rejection by Palestinian Leadership
Netanyahu argues that both Hamas and significant factions within the Palestinian Authority reject the principle of two states, instead aspiring to establish a Palestine “from the river to the sea,” thereby erasing Israel entirely. Prior to October 7, only about one-third of Palestinians supported a two-state solution. The PA’s refusal to condemn violence further entrenches Israeli skepticism.
3. Historical and Ideological Claims to the Land
The Israeli right grounds its position not only in security but also in ideology. Netanyahu frequently declares that “this place belongs to us,” referring to Judea and Samaria (the biblical name for the West Bank). In this view, the land is inherently Jewish, and international calls for Palestinian sovereignty represent an attempt to delegitimize Israel.
Settlement expansion is cast as both a religious obligation and a strategic tool. Netanyahu has openly boasted about blocking past peace processes, such as the Oslo Accords, and his governments have repeatedly approved thousands of new housing units in contested areas.
4. Resistance to International Pressure
The Israeli right dismisses foreign recognition of Palestine—such as recent moves by the U.K., Canada, and Australia—as politically motivated gestures that ignore Israel’s security needs. Netanyahu portrays himself as resisting these pressures with “determination and statesmanship,” while vowing countermeasures such as new settlement approvals or annexation initiatives.
Critics argue that these positions entrench the status quo, perpetuate cycles of violence, and deny Palestinians their right to self-determination.
Alternative Proposals for Palestinians: The Israeli Right’s Vision
Instead of sovereignty, the Israeli right envisions Palestinians living under varying degrees of Israeli control, with limited autonomy but no path to independence. Proposals range from selective annexation to displacement.
1. Annexation of Strategic Areas
Netanyahu has repeatedly proposed annexing the Jordan Valley and large portions of Area C (which makes up 60% of the West Bank), while leaving Palestinians there without full political rights. Other right-wing figures go further: Jewish Home leaders have called for annexing the entire West Bank.
A 2024 poll indicated that 27% of Israelis supported annexation—16% without granting rights to Palestinians, and 11% with. Far-right voices even advocate treating the West Bank like Gaza, implying heavy military operations and potential expulsion.
2. Settlement Expansion as a Strategy
Settlement expansion is central to the right-wing agenda. Projects such as the E1 plan near East Jerusalem—where 3,410 housing units are slated to begin construction in 2026—would physically bisect Palestinian territory and isolate East Jerusalem from the rest of the West Bank.
Netanyahu and Smotrich describe this as “burying the idea of a Palestinian state in practice.” Under Netanyahu’s tenure, the settler population has doubled, and construction continues despite international condemnation.
3. Limited Autonomy and Selective Rights
Some right-wing leaders, such as Naftali Bennett and columnist Caroline Glick, have floated proposals to grant citizenship selectively. Bennett suggested offering it to 80,000 Palestinians in annexed Area C, though UN estimates put the population far higher. Others propose residency rights without political equality, framing economic integration as more important than political sovereignty.
This approach emphasizes “improving quality of life” under Israeli rule, while denying full national rights.
4. Displacement and “Voluntary Migration”
In Gaza, Netanyahu has promoted the idea of “voluntary migration,” interpreted by many critics as a euphemism for forced displacement. Some far-right factions openly call for the expulsion of Palestinians from both Gaza and the West Bank, combined with the destruction of infrastructure to prevent statehood.
Although no official Israeli policy endorses mass expulsion, the rhetoric underscores a vision of one sovereign state—Israel—controlling the land, with Palestinians confined to fragmented enclaves or encouraged to leave.
Conclusion: A Strategy of Control Without Sovereignty
Netanyahu and the Israeli right’s opposition to Palestinian statehood rests on a blend of security fears, ideological convictions, and demographic calculations. Their alternative proposals seek to entrench Israeli dominance through annexation, settlement growth, and restricted Palestinian autonomy.
While this approach enjoys strong support among Israeli right-wing voters, it has drawn widespread international criticism. Human rights organizations and foreign governments argue it undermines international law, entrenches inequality, and closes the door on the two-state solution.
As of late 2025, the Israeli government shows no sign of retreating from this trajectory. Instead, the future seems set toward an indefinite one-state reality defined by Israeli control and Palestinian statelessness—a future likely to prolong instability in the region for years to come.
Where Do Palestinians Go? Migration Pathways, Restrictions, and Realities in 2025
Palestinians seeking to leave Gaza or the West Bank face extraordinary barriers. Israel’s strict border regime, Egypt’s selective controls, and restrictive policies in neighboring Arab countries all limit opportunities for relocation. While some manage to leave, the majority remain trapped by geography, politics, or personal choice. The resulting migration patterns reflect a mix of history, geopolitics, and humanitarian urgency.
Jordan: The Historical Refuge
Jordan has historically been the main destination for Palestinians, particularly from the West Bank. During the wars of 1948 (the Nakba) and 1967, around 1.2 million Palestinians fled or were expelled to Jordan. Today, the country hosts nearly 2.5 million registered Palestinian refugees—about 40% of the global total.
Citizenship divide: Many West Bank-origin Palestinians hold Jordanian citizenship, enabling greater mobility. However, Palestinians originally from Gaza often remain stateless, lacking full legal rights.
Entry restrictions: Movement from the West Bank to Jordan typically occurs through the Allenby Bridge crossing, which requires Israeli permits. These are tightly controlled, with approval generally limited to medical cases, traders, and select family reunifications.
Jordan’s long-standing role as a host has been both a stabilizing factor and a source of domestic strain, as refugee demographics continue to shape national politics.
Egypt: The Rafah Crossing Lifeline
For Gazans, Egypt represents the main outlet through the Rafah crossing. Access, however, is tightly regulated.
Recent trends: Since Egypt eased restrictions in 2018, thousands have left Gaza for study, work, or medical treatment. Family ties in Egypt allow some to settle more permanently, though Cairo has resisted absorbing refugees in large numbers.
Security concerns: Egypt has cited both demographic pressures and concerns about militant infiltration as reasons for limiting Palestinian entry. In 2024, Cairo even expanded a buffer zone at Rafah to deter mass migration.
While Rafah remains a lifeline for individuals, it is far from an open gateway. Closures, delays, and selective approvals mean most Gazans cannot use this exit at will.
Lebanon and Syria: Camps and Chronic Displacement
Both Lebanon and Syria host large Palestinian refugee populations, primarily descendants of those displaced in 1948 and 1967. Each country offers a starkly different experience:
Lebanon: Roughly 500,000 Palestinians live in Lebanon, but they face entrenched discrimination. They are barred from many professions, denied citizenship, and confined largely to refugee camps where poverty and marginalization are common.
Syria: Before the civil war, Palestinians enjoyed relatively equal rights, but the conflict since 2011 displaced tens of thousands yet again. Many fled onward to Europe, while others were uprooted within Syria itself.
These long-term refugee populations remain among the most vulnerable, caught between local exclusion and international neglect.
Gulf States and the West: Professionals and Risk-Takers
A smaller but notable number of Palestinians have migrated to Gulf states such as the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait, primarily for professional opportunities. These moves typically involve individuals with higher education, resources, or sponsorships.
Others attempt riskier journeys:
Since 2018, more than 2,000 Palestinians have attempted smuggling routes across the Mediterranean to Europe. Belgium and Norway have become notable destinations, though asylum claims are complicated by statelessness.
North America also hosts Palestinian diaspora communities, though entry requires significant financial and legal hurdles.
These routes highlight the stark divide between those with resources to migrate legally and those who risk everything through irregular channels.
Within Palestinian Territories: Limited Internal Options
Relocation within Palestinian territories is also heavily constrained.
Gaza–West Bank movement: Israel strictly controls passage between the two territories. Permits are issued only for exceptional cases such as urgent medical treatment, limited business travel, or family reunification.
Daily barriers: In the West Bank, checkpoints, the separation barrier, and settlement expansion severely restrict mobility, making even internal relocation difficult.
As a result, Palestinians who wish to move often remain confined to their immediate regions.
Constraints and Patterns
The barriers to leaving Gaza and the West Bank are so significant that most Palestinians migrate only under exceptional circumstances:
Permits and closures: Israel’s Erez crossing (for Gaza) and West Bank checkpoints allow exit only with hard-to-obtain permits. Egypt’s Rafah crossing is often closed or limited to pre-approved groups.
Cost and risk: Smuggling is prohibitively expensive and dangerous, with many migrants perishing en route.
Desire to remain: Despite hardships, many Palestinians resist leaving. A 2025 survey found that while 49% of Gazans would apply to emigrate if Israel allowed, many also feared permanent displacement or were unwilling to abandon their ancestral land.
Conclusion: A Geography of Confinement
In practice, the main destinations for Palestinians leaving today are Jordan and Egypt, followed by Lebanon and Syria, with smaller numbers reaching the Gulf states or Western countries. Yet these flows remain relatively small compared to the total population under blockade and occupation.
Restrictions, statelessness, and the deep-rooted attachment to homeland ensure that most Palestinians remain where they are, even under dire conditions. The result is a geography of confinement—one shaped by borders, politics, and unresolved conflict—that continues to define Palestinian lives in 2025.
Arab Citizens of Israel: Navigating Identity, Inequality, and Citizenship
Arab citizens of Israel—commonly referred to as Israeli Arabs or Palestinian citizens of Israel—constitute roughly 21% of the country’s population, about 2 million people as of 2025. Most are descendants of Palestinians who remained within Israel’s borders after the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, when hundreds of thousands were displaced. Their position in Israeli society is unique and contested: they hold full legal citizenship yet continue to face systemic inequality and identity challenges.
Legal and Political Status
Citizenship and Rights:
Arab citizens hold Israeli passports, enjoy voting rights, and have access to public services such as healthcare and education. They can run for office, and Arab parties have consistently participated in Knesset elections. In 2022, 15 Arab members entered parliament across parties like Ra’am (United Arab List) and Hadash-Ta’al. However, Arab citizens are exempt from mandatory military service—a policy viewed by some as a protection against fighting fellow Palestinians, but by others as a barrier to full integration, since military service often leads to career and social benefits.
Discrimination and Inequality:
Despite formal equality, Arab citizens report systemic discrimination. The controversial 2018 Nation-State Law enshrined Israel as the “nation-state of the Jewish people,” downgraded Arabic from an official language to one with “special status,” and emphasized Jewish settlement as a national value. Rights groups such as Adalah have catalogued over 65 laws that disproportionately disadvantage Arabs, particularly in land ownership, housing permits, and state resource allocation.
Socioeconomic Conditions
Economic Disparities:
Arab citizens face stark economic inequality. The poverty rate among Arabs stands at about 36%, compared to 18% for Jewish Israelis. Average Arab household income is roughly half that of Jewish households. Unemployment remains higher (around 7% vs. 4% for Jews in 2024), and Arabs are underrepresented in high-tech, military-linked industries, and government positions.
Education:
Arab schools receive lower per-student funding than Jewish schools, contributing to inferior facilities and performance gaps. The high school matriculation rate among Arabs lags about 20% behind Jewish peers. Still, progress is evident: by 2023, Arabs comprised 18% of Israel’s university student body, though representation remains limited in lucrative fields such as technology, law, and medicine.
Housing and Land:
Restrictive zoning and land policies have left Arab towns and villages chronically underdeveloped. Many communities face housing shortages, and thousands of Bedouins in the Negev live in “unrecognized villages” without access to electricity, water, or sewage systems. Demolitions of unauthorized Arab homes—often built due to lack of approved planning—exceed 2,000 structures annually.
Social and Cultural Dynamics
Identity and Belonging:
Identity remains fraught. While Arab citizens participate in Israeli civic life, their self-identification is predominantly Palestinian or Arab. A 2024 poll found only 23% identify primarily as “Israeli.” In mixed cities like Haifa or Jaffa, some integration occurs, but national tensions run deep. Political rhetoric from right-wing leaders has at times portrayed Arab citizens as a “fifth column,” particularly during conflicts. After the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, many Arabs faced harassment or even job dismissals for expressing solidarity with Gaza.
Crime and Violence:
Arab towns and mixed cities have been plagued by rising crime, much of it tied to organized gangs. In 2024, more than 200 Arab citizens were killed in intra-community violence. Critics accuse police of neglect: clearance rates for homicides in Arab communities hover around 30%, compared to 50% among Jewish Israelis. The crisis has fueled protests demanding more effective and equitable policing.
Political Representation and Activism
Political Engagement:
Arab parties, including Ra’am, Hadash, and Ta’al, campaign for civil equality and Palestinian rights. Yet they are often sidelined in Israeli coalition politics. Ra’am’s participation in the Bennett-Lapid coalition (2021–22) was historic, but since 2022 right-wing governments have excluded Arab parties from power. Disillusionment is reflected in declining Arab voter turnout, which fell to just 42% in 2022.
Civil Society:
Arab-led NGOs and grassroots movements are active in education, women’s rights, and land advocacy. However, they face restrictions such as laws targeting foreign-funded organizations. Public demonstrations—against home demolitions, the Nation-State Law, or Israel’s Gaza policies—are frequent but often met with arrests or accusations of incitement.
Recent Developments
Post-October 7 Climate:
The 2023 Hamas attacks and subsequent Gaza war sharply strained Arab-Jewish relations inside Israel. Arab citizens reported heightened scrutiny, workplace discrimination, and arrests over social media activity deemed sympathetic to Hamas. A 2024 survey found 60% of Arab citizens feel less safe expressing their identity publicly since the conflict began.
Government Policies:
The current Netanyahu government has emphasized Jewish settlement expansion and security-first policies, often sidelining Arab priorities. A five-year plan announced in 2021 to address Arab economic development and crime prevention exists, but critics argue it remains underfunded and inconsistently implemented.
Conclusion
Arab citizens of Israel occupy a paradoxical position: they are full citizens with voting rights and growing representation in higher education, yet face systemic inequalities in housing, employment, policing, and political influence. They straddle a dual identity—Palestinian by heritage, Israeli by citizenship—caught between integration and exclusion.
While there has been progress in some areas, discriminatory legislation, underinvestment in Arab communities, and deep political divides continue to challenge their place in Israeli society. As Israel’s Arab population grows demographically and politically more vocal, its treatment will remain a litmus test for the country’s democracy.
For more detailed insights, reports from groups like Adalah, the Israel Democracy Institute, and the OECD provide valuable context on this evolving issue.
Legal, Political, and Socioeconomic Status of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza
Palestinians in the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and Gaza Strip live under conditions shaped by more than five decades of unresolved conflict and contested sovereignty. International law, the United Nations, and most governments classify these areas as occupied territories since the 1967 Six-Day War. Israel disputes the term “occupation,” particularly for the West Bank, preferring to call it “disputed territory.”
Palestinians do not enjoy full sovereignty or citizenship rights: they are not Israeli citizens (with rare exceptions, such as some East Jerusalem residents who apply for Israeli citizenship), nor do they belong to a fully recognized independent state. The Palestinian Authority (PA), established under the 1993 Oslo Accords, exercises limited self-rule in parts of the West Bank, but ultimate control over borders, security, and resources remains with Israel. In Gaza, Hamas has held de facto authority since 2007, following its takeover from the PA.
As of September 2025, no major breakthrough toward Palestinian statehood has occurred, and the combined effects of conflict, occupation, settlement expansion, and international stalemate have further entrenched the status quo.
Legal and Political Framework
West Bank
The Oslo Accords divided the West Bank into three administrative areas:
Area A (18%): Full PA civil and security control, encompassing major Palestinian urban centers such as Ramallah, Nablus, and Bethlehem.
Area B (22%): PA civil control but joint Israeli-PA security administration, with Israel retaining ultimate authority.
Area C (60%): Full Israeli civil and military control, covering most Israeli settlements, strategic land reserves, and rural areas. Palestinians in Area C face the harshest building restrictions, frequent demolitions, and movement barriers.
Legal authority is fragmented: civil affairs in Areas A and B are handled by the PA, but Israeli military ordinances apply broadly, particularly in matters of security. Palestinians carry PA-issued ID cards and travel documents, which allow limited international recognition but require Israeli permits for movement within or beyond the West Bank.
In East Jerusalem, approximately 350,000 Palestinians hold permanent residency status in Israel, giving them access to Israeli social services. However, they are not citizens unless they apply formally—a process many avoid for political reasons, and applications are often delayed or denied.
Gaza Strip
Since Israel’s withdrawal of settlers in 2005 and Hamas’s takeover in 2007, Gaza has been under blockade by both Israel and Egypt. While Hamas governs internal administration, Israel controls borders, airspace, and coastal waters, restricting movement of people and goods.
Palestinians can exit mainly through the Erez crossing into Israel or the Rafah crossing into Egypt, but both require special permits and are frequently closed.
Infrastructure has been devastated by repeated wars, especially since the October 2023 Hamas attacks and ensuing Israeli military campaigns. By mid-2025, more than 80% of Gaza’s 2.2 million residents had been displaced, creating one of the worst humanitarian crises in the region.
Citizenship and Identity
Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza are not Israeli citizens. Israeli law—including the Citizenship and Entry into Israel Law, repeatedly extended since 2003—bars most Palestinians from obtaining residency or citizenship through family reunification.
They carry Palestinian passports or laissez-passer documents issued by the PA. These are not equivalent to passports from a recognized sovereign state, and international travel often requires additional visas or third-country sponsorship.
Many Palestinians are effectively stateless. Roughly 5 million Palestinians worldwide are registered with the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) as refugees—descendants of those displaced in 1948 and 1967. This designation provides access to services but underscores their lack of citizenship rights.
Some hold dual nationality (for example, Jordanian citizenship among certain West Bank families), but such cases remain the minority.
In political terms, Palestinians cannot vote in Israeli national elections, except East Jerusalem residents in municipal contests. Within Palestinian politics, opportunities for democratic participation are limited: the last PA legislative elections were held in 2006, while local elections have been sporadic.
Socioeconomic Conditions
Palestinian life in the West Bank and Gaza is shaped by restricted mobility, economic underdevelopment, and humanitarian crises.
Economy and Poverty:
West Bank GDP per capita (2024): ~$3,700.
Gaza GDP per capita: under $1,000, among the lowest in the region.
Unemployment: 15–20% in the West Bank; over 40% in Gaza.
About 150,000 West Bank Palestinians hold Israeli work permits, but these can be revoked at any time due to security concerns.
Movement and Access:
Israeli checkpoints, the separation barrier, and a restrictive permit system limit travel. West Bank Palestinians need permits to access Israel, East Jerusalem, or Gaza. Gazans are largely confined, with rare exceptions for medical or humanitarian cases.
Human Rights:
International monitors have documented systemic rights violations:
Over 1,000 home demolitions annually in the West Bank.
Increased settler violence, often met with inadequate law enforcement.
Arbitrary arrests and administrative detentions.
In Gaza, food insecurity affects 70% of households, and health services have collapsed due to conflict.
Education and Health:
PA-run schools and hospitals face chronic underfunding. In Gaza, repeated bombardments have destroyed or damaged dozens of schools and hospitals. Shortages of medicine, doctors, and equipment exacerbate the crisis.
Recent Developments (September 2025)
War Toll: The Israel-Hamas conflict, ongoing since October 2023, has entered its third year. More than 40,000 deaths have been reported in Gaza, alongside mass displacement.
Settlements: Expansion continues in the West Bank, with thousands of new housing units approved in 2025, further fragmenting Palestinian territory.
International Measures:
The U.S. has extended Deferred Enforced Departure (DED) protections for Palestinians through 2025.
Canada and several European countries have implemented temporary relief programs for Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank.
Peace Process: No formal negotiations are underway, and prospects for statehood remain stalled.
Conclusion
Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza exist in a state of partial autonomy without sovereignty. They live under occupation (as defined by international law) but lack the protections of citizenship, facing daily restrictions on movement, political participation, and economic opportunity.
While international actors continue to call for a two-state solution, Israeli settlement expansion and entrenched political divides make the vision of an independent Palestinian state increasingly remote. For now, Palestinians remain caught in a limbo defined by statelessness, limited autonomy, and humanitarian struggle.
For deeper insights, reports from the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, B’Tselem, and the U.S. State Department provide up-to-date documentation of conditions on the ground.
October 7, 2023: The Hamas Attack, Aftermath, and Ongoing War
What Happened on October 7, 2023
On the morning of October 7, 2023, a large, multi‐pronged surprise assault was launched by Hamas and allied Palestinian militant groups from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel. The operation was named “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.” (zionshope.org)
The attack included ground incursions, rocket barrages, use of motorcycles, trucks, paragliders, speedboats, etc. Militants breached Israel’s border in more than 100 locations. (Wikipedia)
Among the worst atrocities were mass killings at a music festival near Re’im, with hundreds of civilians killed; atrocities in kibbutzim (collective agricultural communities) such as Be’eri, Netiv HaAsara, etc.; many homes set afire, kidnapped hostages, and reports of sexual violence. (Wikipedia)
Israel suffered about 1,195 deaths from the attack (civilian and security forces), with many more wounded. Hamas and its militants also took dozens to hundreds of hostages, numbers shifting with time. (Wikipedia)
Why Israel Was Caught by Surprise
Analysis of intelligence and defense reports shows several factors:
Intelligence Failures / Misreading of Intent: There were indications (some surveillance, intercepted signals, warnings) that Hamas was preparing something large, but Israeli intelligence—military, security services—did not believe the scale or type of attack was feasible. (Combating Terrorism Center at West Point)
Cognitive Bias and Overreliance on Assumptions: The Israeli leadership had assumptions about deterrence by border fortifications, the ability to track Hamas tunnels or rocket launchers, or that Hamas would not risk such an audacious incursion. When warnings came, some were dismissed or downplayed. (Combating Terrorism Center at West Point)
Operational Preparedness Issues: Some local communities had limited defense, delayed response. There have been reports of failures in communications, delays in mobilizing troops into southern border towns, and confusion in very early hours. (Wikipedia)
Surprise Tactics by Hamas: Use of unconventional entry methods (paragliders, motorcycles), simultaneous breaches, exploiting local terrain and timings (e.g. early morning, some units unprepared) all contributed to the surprise. (Wikipedia)
What Is the “Red Heifer” Connection?
The “red heifer” reference arises from religious / prophetic symbolism in Judaism: a red heifer (a young cow with specific features) is required in some Biblical / Temple rituals (Numbers 19). Some Jewish religious groups in Israel have been preparing for a red heifer as part of purity rituals related to aspirations for the Third Temple. (Christians for Israel Australia)
Hamas spokespersons have claimed (in speeches) that the transfer or appearance of red heifers to Israel was among the provocations that motivated or justified October 7. That is, they allege that this symbolically represented an escalation toward Temple rebuilding or threatening Muslim holy sites (especially Al-Aqsa), thereby inflaming tensions. (CBS News)
However, the red heifer narrative is disputed and not substantiated as a direct operational cause. It is more symbolic, used rhetorically. Mainstream intelligence and analysts view the more substantive causes as blockade, settlement expansion, perceived threats to Al-Aqsa, local grievances, failures of deterrence. (Combating Terrorism Center at West Point)
Aftermath: Military Action in Gaza, Human Cost, Property Damage
Since October 7, 2023, Israel’s response has been massive and sustained, including:
Military Offensives: Large‐scale airstrikes, ground operations, targeting of Hamas infrastructure, leadership, tunnel networks, rocket launch sites, weapon storage, and command centers. Frequent operations inside Gaza, sometimes combined with operations in the West Bank. (Congress.gov)
Displacement and Humanitarian Crisis: By mid‐2025, a large majority of Gaza’s population has been displaced—some estimates say over 80% of the population forced from homes at least temporarily. Infrastructure (hospitals, schools, water, electricity) heavily damaged or destroyed. Access to aid severely constrained. (Congress.gov)
Casualties: Tens of thousands killed, both militants and many civilians. Exact figures vary depending on source. Wounded count is much higher. Hostages taken from Israel, some released, others still held. (Wikipedia)
Property and Infrastructure Damage: Homes destroyed or damaged in southern Israel and Gaza. Agricultural land, roads, utilities, public buildings heavily affected. Critical civilian infrastructure in Gaza crippled (hospitals, water systems, power plants). (Congress.gov)
Where Things Stand Today (as of Late 2025)
The war is ongoing. While some ceasefire efforts and international mediation have occurred, none have produced a lasting settlement. (Congress.gov)
Israel continues to pursue what it describes as “total victory” over Hamas—destroying its military capability, freeing hostages, and securing its borders. Hamas remains in Gaza but has suffered leadership losses, damage to its infrastructure and significant pressure. (Congress.gov)
The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains dire: massive displacement, food insecurity, lack of clean water, disease risks, damage to medical capacity. Many international agencies warn of worsening conditions unless aid flows improve. Israel’s restrictions make aid delivery complex.
On the Israeli side, the psychological, social, and infrastructure impact is also serious—southern communities have had to deal with trauma, rebuilding, and security concerns.
Politically, the attack, aftermath, and ongoing war have hardened positions on both sides. International criticism of Israel’s conduct (especially civilian harm) remains strong; at the same time, a segment of Israeli public supports strong military responses and security reconfigurations.
Summary
October 7, 2023, marks a turning point: a large‐scale, unexpected assault by Hamas that exposed key lapses in Israeli intelligence and preparedness. The symbolic “red heifer” rhetoric became part of the dispute over sacred space, though its material role is limited compared to the political, territorial and security issues. The aftermath is a deepening conflict with high humanitarian cost, massive displacement, destruction, and no clear resolution in view.
While Israel pursues military goals, the people of Gaza suffer heavily; and until there is serious diplomatic progress, things are likely to remain in this harsh status quo.
How Hard Would It Be for Israel to Fully Defeat Hamas — Militarily, Politically, Socially?
Israel appears increasingly committed to eliminating Hamas’s power in Gaza and asserting control over the Strip. But a full “capture” of Gaza involves enormous challenges. Below is a breakdown of how the military campaign would unfold, why Hamas resists surrender, its popularity among Palestinians, and where things stand now.
Military Path to Capturing Gaza: How It Might Play Out
A full Israeli capture (control of all territory, dismantling Hamas’s command structures, tunnels, infrastructure, resistance cells, etc.) would involve multiple phases, each extremely difficult.
Encirclement & Isolation
Israel would increasingly use airpower, artillery, and special forces to isolate Hamas strongholds—especially in Gaza City, Khan Younis, Rafah, and the refugee camps.
Control over borders (land, air, sea) to cut supplies, reinforcements, and weapons.
Ground Invasion in Dense Urban Areas
Moving forces (infantry, armored units, engineers) into dense neighborhoods where civilians are packed; narrow alleys, small roads, high-rise buildings complicate armored mobility.
Evacuation and humanitarian zone issues: making civilians leave or be protected while avoiding civilian casualties.
Neutralizing Tunnel Networks
Hamas has an extensive tunnel infrastructure used for shelter, movement, storage, weapons, command posts, smuggling, and surprise attacks. (The Washington Institute)
Israel has built an anti-tunnel barrier along much of the border, with sensors, underground walls and detection means. (Wikipedia)
Despite this, many tunnels inside Gaza remain, especially under densely populated and strategically significant areas. Destroying them is slow, dangerous, and expensive.
Airstrikes, drone attacks, infiltration operations to kill or capture senior Hamas leaders, degrade rocket-launch capabilities, destroy weapons stockpiles.
Repeated operations in places like Rafah (the “Rafah Offensive”) where Israel has targeted tunnels, weapon caches, battalions. (Wikipedia)
Securing and Holding Territory
Even after large operations, Israel would need to maintain presence in cleared areas to prevent resurgence of resistance, sleeper cells, rocket launching, booby-traps.
Reconstruction, patrol, intelligence operations, population management are necessary.
Dealing with Hostages and International Pressure
The need to recover hostages constrains some of the more destructive operations. Israel must balance use of force with risk to hostages. (Wall Street Journal)
International law and humanitarian norms, along with global opinion, impose constraints. Civilian casualties damage Israel’s legitimacy; pressure from foreign governments and NGOs can force pauses or changes in tactics.
Why Hamas Will Likely Refuse to Surrender or Release All Hostages
There are multiple interlocking reasons why Hamas is not likely to surrender outright or give up all their hostages for minimal guarantees:
Strategic Leverage: Hostages are among Hamas’s strongest bargaining chips. They can demand prisoner exchanges, ceasefire terms, lifting of blockades, and aid in exchange. Past history shows Hamas has gained concessions via hostage diplomacy. (X (formerly Twitter))
Ideological Commitment: Hamas views its conflict with Israel not just as military but existential. It frames resistance as moral, religious, and national. Surrender would mean giving up on core identity, losing popular legitimacy.
Fear of Total Defeat: If Hamas lays down arms, they risk not only losing combat power but being completely dismantled, leaders arrested or killed, and their governance destroyed. For many fighters and leaders, it’s all-or-nothing.
Popular Support and Narratives: Even when weakened, Hamas retains popularity among many Palestinians. Some polls suggest around 40% support or approval for Hamas in certain contexts. This gives Hamas legitimacy and a protective layer: people see them as defenders against Israeli occupation, as figures of resistance. In many areas suffering under blockade, war, displacement, Hamas provides social services, infrastructure, or perceived protection—this builds loyalty.
Negotiation Mistrust: Hamas distrusts Israel’s willingness (or ability) to keep promises. Partial ceasefires or releases in the past have not always led to long-term relief or political gains, leading to suspicion of conditions offered.
Internal Concerns: Within Hamas there are different wings—military, political, social—and they may disagree. Some may be more willing to compromise, others not. There is risk of internal fracturing if leadership concedes too much.
Complexity of Urban Warfare & The Tunnels
Urban warfare in Gaza is particularly difficult for several reasons:
High Population Density: Gaza is among the most densely populated places in the world. Civilians are interspersed with militants. Buildings are multi-story, often connected (sometimes via underground passages). Civilian casualties are very hard to avoid.
Underground Infrastructure: Tunnels, bunkers, subterranean command-and-control centers. Hamas has invested heavily over many years into tunnels that allow movement, surprise attacks, sheltering during bombardments. These structures are hard to map, destroy, or neutralize without major operations. (Taylor & Francis Online)
Asymmetric Tactics: Hamas uses guerrilla tactics: snipers, booby-trapped buildings, IEDs, ambushes, small-unit actions. These can inflict heavy casualties on conventional forces. Especially in narrow streets and refugee camps (e.g. Jabalia, Shuja’iyya), IDF has encountered fierce resistance. (Wikipedia)
Civilian Populations & International Law: The need to protect civilians, avoid damage to civilian infrastructure (or at least mitigate it), evacuate people, ensure humanitarian aid. These constraints slow operations, increase risk, require intelligence and discrimination.
Psychological and Logistical Strain: Troops operating in these environments face high risk, require specialized training, equipment, intelligence. Supply lines, medical support, civil administration all become complex.
Popularity of Hamas Among Palestinians — Why It Persists
Some reasons why Hamas remains popular for many Palestinians, even after heavy losses:
Resistance Symbolism: To many Palestinians, Hamas is seen as one of the few organizations actively resisting Israeli military occupation, blockades, and perceived injustice. Even if imperfect, resistance has symbolic value.
Service and Governance: In addition to military activity, Hamas runs social programs, schools, charities (though sometimes under harsh conditions), which build local loyalty.
Despair and Lack of Alternatives: After years of occupation, blockades, failed peace processes, many Palestinians feel that neither Israel nor the international community offers a viable alternative. Corruption or inefficacy among other Palestinian leadership (like PA) reduces trust. Hamas’s narrative of resistance may seem more genuine to those suffering.
Information Environment & Media: Intense propaganda / messaging from both sides. Stories of victimhood, suffering, siege feed into public sentiment. Also, suppression of dissent or fear of reprisals can influence what people say publicly.
Social Identity: Nationalism, religious identity, local loyalties. Many see Hamas not just as militants but as part of their community’s identity, especially under siege.
How Hard Is Defeating Hamas Completely?
Even with superior firepower, many indicators suggest that a full military defeat of Hamas is extremely difficult. Challenges include:
Destroying the tunnel network: Even if many tunnels are destroyed, new ones may be built, hidden ones remain. Complete destruction is hard.
Neutralizing underground leadership: Leadership that operates in underground bunkers, secret locations, mobile command.
Avoiding or minimizing civilian casualties: Failure to do so results in backlash, both domestically and internationally.
Maintaining security over cleared terrain: Once removed, insurgent or guerrilla cells often reemerge, particularly if local population is non-cooperative or resentful.
Logistical and infrastructural collapse: Supplying troops, rebuilding after destruction, providing essential services (water, electricity, hospital) in devastated urban zones.
International pressure: Humanitarian law violations, images of suffering, displacement, refugee crisis—all generate pressure, sanctions, diplomatic interventions that can force Israel to stop or modify operations.
What the Record Shows So Far & Where Things Stand (Late 2025)
Israeli military operations have expanded control over large parts of Gaza, especially in northern Gaza and around Gaza City. Reports say “Israel has extended control to more than three-quarters of Gaza’s territory” in some operational sense. (ACLED)
Damage to infrastructure is immense. A recent study using satellite radar (InSAR) indicates that by mid-2024-2025, ~60% of all buildings in Gaza were damaged or destroyed. (arXiv)
Casualties: Tens of thousands of Palestinians killed (reports vary by source). Among them many civilians; also large numbers displaced internally. Israeli side also suffers casualties, but much fewer comparatively.
Hostages: As of recent figures, some of the hostages originally taken have been released; many others remain. The total number varies with negotiations and news. Israeli government demands full release as part of any ceasefire deal, but Hamas has refused offers it deems unacceptable (e.g. those that leave Hamas severely weakened without guarantees). (The Guardian)
Popular support: Polling suggests a significant minority still supports Hamas or trusts it more than alternatives. Exact numbers vary; many Palestinians see Hamas as defender or symbol more than as pragmatic ruler. (Some polls put support around 40% in certain periods / regions.) [While specific up-to-date poll data varies by source; not always fully reliable under conflict conditions.]
Urban warfare remains ongoing in major zones: Gaza City, Rafah, Khan Yunis. IDF continues ground operations, bombardments, targeting Hamas strongholds. However, they also face mounting resistance from militant cells even in areas claimed “cleared.”
Conclusion
A full Israeli capture of Gaza and the total defeat of Hamas is militarily possible, but politically, socially, and morally extremely complicated. The resilience of Hamas, rooted in tunnels, urban terrain, ideology, and popular support, makes surrender unlikely under current terms. The cost in life, infrastructure, displacement, and regional reaction is massive.
Unless there is a fundamental shift—either in Israeli strategy, Hamas’s demands, or international mediation—the conflict is likely to drag on, with cycles of intense combat, destruction, and intermittent negotiations.
