Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

Navigating the Trade Winds: US–India Relations Amid Tariffs, Diplomacy, and Media Hype

A High-Stakes Stage

In today’s volatile global economy, few stories command as much attention as the evolving dynamic between the United States, India, and China. In late August 2025, President Donald Trump imposed a sweeping 50% tariff on most Indian imports, citing India’s continued purchases of discounted Russian oil. What followed was a cascade of high-profile summits, diplomatic visits, and fevered media commentary that suggested a tectonic geopolitical realignment was underway. But beneath the dramatic headlines, the reality appears more prosaic: carefully scheduled diplomacy, economic brinkmanship, and an Indian media machine eager for spectacle.

The Tariff Shockwave

The August 27 tariffs marked a sharp escalation in Trump’s trade-war playbook, doubling down on his “America First” strategy. They combined a broad 25% baseline hike with an additional 25% punitive tariff linked directly to Russian oil imports. The move struck at the heart of U.S.–India relations, even as Washington continues to describe New Delhi as a “linchpin” in its Indo-Pacific strategy to counterbalance China.

The economic fallout has been swift.

Indian exporters, from textiles and IT services to pharmaceuticals, face reduced competitiveness in the U.S. market.
American consumers see rising prices on apparel, drugs, and auto parts.
Global supply chains are feeling ripple effects, as Southeast Asian and European intermediaries adjust to costlier Indian goods.

For India, which already faces a steep trade deficit with China, the tariffs compound pressure on growth, inflation, and currency stability. For the U.S., the move risks alienating a democratic partner at a time when Washington is juggling simultaneous confrontations with Beijing, Moscow, and Brussels.

The Diplomatic Calendar: Coincidence or Conspiracy?

Just before the tariffs landed, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited New Delhi (August 18–20) for meetings with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The agenda: border disengagement talks and efforts to restore a measure of normalcy after the deadly 2020 Galwan clashes. Planned nearly a year in advance, the visit was not—contrary to media framing—a knee-jerk reaction to Trump’s tariffs.

Days later, Modi traveled to Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit (August 31–September 1). This was his first trip to China in seven years, providing a stage for photo-ops with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. Warm handshakes, pledges of cooperation, and discussions on border management dominated the coverage. Indian and international outlets quickly dubbed the optics a “dragon-elephant tango” and speculated that Trump’s tariff barrage was driving India into Beijing’s and Moscow’s orbit.

Fueling this perception was the timing of China’s Victory Day parade on September 3, where Xi shared the reviewing stand with Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. Trump, watching from Washington, alternated between admiration (“very, very impressive”) and resentment, lamenting on social media that the U.S. was “deliberately snubbed” and accusing Xi of “conspiring” against America.

Media Hype vs. Ground Reality

Despite the headlines, much of the “India pivots eastward” narrative collapses under scrutiny:

The SCO is an annual multilateral forum where India has been a regular participant since joining in 2017.
Wang Yi’s trip was part of long-running border disengagement talks, not a sudden act of solidarity.
India’s massive $100+ billion trade deficit with China makes deepening economic ties risky, despite Beijing’s charm offensive.

Yet India’s vibrant, competitive media ecosystem thrives on dramatization. Television anchors framed the meetings as “India breaking free from the West,” while tabloids speculated about “anti-American rage” on the streets. The truth is more complex: India values its sovereignty, hedges its bets, and uses multilateral forums to balance great-power rivalries—not to realign overnight.

The Trade Talks Resume

Far from collapsing, U.S.–India dialogue has resumed quickly. On September 16, 2025, negotiators met in New Delhi for the first in-person trade talks since the tariffs took effect. India’s Ministry of Commerce described the talks as “positive and forward-looking.” Key issues include:

Patent rules and pharmaceutical access (long a sticking point for U.S. pharma companies),
Cross-border data flows,
E-commerce market access for U.S. giants like Amazon and Walmart,
Procurement opportunities in India’s booming infrastructure and defense sectors.

The big question remains whether Washington will roll back the oil-linked 25% tariff. Without movement on that front, Indian officials are unlikely to sign onto major concessions. Still, the very fact that talks are ongoing signals recognition on both sides that the strategic partnership is too valuable to be derailed by short-term disputes.

The Navarro Factor

One figure looms large over these negotiations: Peter Navarro, Trump’s hardline trade advisor. Once thought to be sidelined after Trump’s return to office, Navarro has re-emerged as a key voice. In a recent CNBC interview, he declared, “India is coming to the table now.” His hawkish stance on China has broadened to include criticism of India’s “strategic freeloading” via Russian oil imports. His influence suggests the talks will be confrontational, but also that the White House sees real leverage—and potential deal-making—at hand.

Looking Ahead: Substance or Spectacle?

The path forward depends as much on political will as on economic calculus. Indian media will likely continue alternating between triumphalism and outrage, amplifying each twist into a melodrama. In Washington, Trump will weigh trade concessions against his 2026 midterm strategy, where “tough on India” could play well with protectionist voters. In New Delhi, Modi must juggle domestic inflationary pressures, anti-China sentiment, and the reality that India cannot afford to alienate either superpower.

Conclusion: Context Is King

The August–September 2025 episode underscores a timeless lesson in geopolitics: timing creates headlines, but context creates outcomes. Trump’s tariffs rattled markets and stoked media speculation, but India’s participation in the SCO and border talks with China were pre-scheduled, not reactive. The real story is the durability of U.S.–India ties, which—despite turbulence—remain grounded in shared interests from defense cooperation to technology partnerships.

The media may thrive on visions of dramatic realignment. But the quiet grind of trade negotiations, not photo-ops or parades, will shape the trajectory of U.S.–India relations in the years ahead.

व्यापारिक हवाओं में दिशा: शुल्क, कूटनीति और मीडिया की सनसनी के बीच अमेरिका–भारत संबंध

उच्च दांव का मंच

आज की अस्थिर वैश्विक अर्थव्यवस्था में कुछ ही कहानियाँ उतना ध्यान खींचती हैं जितना अमेरिका, भारत और चीन के बीच बदलता समीकरण। अगस्त 2025 के अंत में राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रम्प ने अधिकांश भारतीय आयातों पर 50% शुल्क लगा दिया, यह कहते हुए कि भारत ने रूस से रियायती तेल खरीदना जारी रखा है। इसके बाद उच्च-स्तरीय शिखर सम्मेलनों, कूटनीतिक यात्राओं और मीडिया की गरमागरम बहसों की बाढ़ आ गई, जिसने यह धारणा पैदा की कि कोई बड़ा भू-राजनीतिक पुनर्संरेखण हो रहा है। लेकिन नज़दीक से देखने पर स्पष्ट होता है कि यह अधिकतर नियोजित कूटनीति, आर्थिक दबाव और सनसनीखेज़ मीडिया कवरेज का परिणाम है, न कि किसी अचानक रणनीतिक मोड़ का।

शुल्क का झटका

27 अगस्त 2025 को लगाए गए शुल्क ट्रम्प की "अमेरिका फर्स्ट" रणनीति का अगला बड़ा कदम थे। इनमें एक 25% का आधारभूत शुल्क और अतिरिक्त 25% का विशेष दंड शुल्क शामिल था, जो सीधे रूस से तेल खरीद से जोड़ा गया। यह कदम उस भारत पर पड़ा, जिसे वॉशिंगटन लंबे समय से इंडो-पैसिफिक रणनीति में चीन के विरुद्ध "कड़ी कड़ी" कहता रहा है।

इसका असर कई स्तरों पर महसूस किया गया:

भारतीय निर्यातक, चाहे वस्त्र हों, आईटी सेवाएँ हों या दवाइयाँ, अमेरिका के बाज़ार में महंगे हो गए।
अमेरिकी उपभोक्ताओं को कपड़ों से लेकर दवाओं तक पर अधिक कीमतें चुकानी पड़ीं।
वैश्विक आपूर्ति श्रृंखलाएँ प्रभावित हुईं, क्योंकि यूरोप और दक्षिण-पूर्व एशिया में भारतीय सामान पर बढ़ी लागत का असर पड़ा।

भारत के लिए, जो पहले से ही चीन के साथ 100 अरब डॉलर से अधिक का व्यापार घाटा झेल रहा है, यह दबाव आर्थिक विकास, महँगाई और मुद्रा स्थिरता पर और भारी पड़ सकता है। अमेरिका के लिए, यह कदम उस समय जोखिमभरा है जब वह एक साथ बीजिंग, मॉस्को और ब्रुसेल्स के साथ तनाव झेल रहा है।

कूटनीति का कैलेंडर: संयोग या साज़िश?

शुल्क लागू होने से ठीक पहले, चीन के विदेश मंत्री वांग यी ने 18–20 अगस्त को नई दिल्ली का दौरा किया। यहाँ उनकी मुलाक़ात एस. जयशंकर और प्रधानमंत्री नरेंद्र मोदी से हुई। उद्देश्य: सीमा विवाद पर बातचीत और 2020 के गलवान संघर्ष के बाद से तनाव को कम करना। यह यात्रा लगभग एक साल पहले से तय थी, लेकिन भारतीय और अंतरराष्ट्रीय मीडिया ने इसे ऐसे पेश किया मानो यह ट्रम्प के दबाव का सीधा जवाब हो।

कुछ ही दिनों बाद, मोदी 31 अगस्त–1 सितंबर को तिआनजिन में शंघाई सहयोग संगठन (SCO) शिखर सम्मेलन में पहुँचे। सात साल बाद उनकी चीन यात्रा ने शी जिनपिंग और व्लादिमीर पुतिन के साथ गर्मजोशी भरी तस्वीरें दीं। भारतीय चैनलों ने इसे “ड्रैगन–हाथी का नृत्य” करार दिया और दावा किया कि ट्रम्प के शुल्कों ने भारत को बीजिंग और मॉस्को की ओर धकेल दिया है।

3 सितंबर को चीन की विजय दिवस परेड में जब शी ने पुतिन और उत्तर कोरिया के किम जोंग उन के साथ मंच साझा किया, तब ट्रम्प ने टीवी पर देखते हुए पहले तो तारीफ़ की (“बहुत, बहुत प्रभावशाली”) लेकिन साथ ही नाराज़गी भी जताई कि अमेरिका का ज़िक्र नहीं किया गया। उनकी सोशल मीडिया पोस्टों में यह झुँझलाहट साफ़ झलकी: “वे चाहते हैं कि मैं यह देखूँ!”

मीडिया की सनसनी बनाम ज़मीनी हकीकत

हालाँकि हेडलाइनें कुछ और कह रही थीं, पर वास्तविकता यह थी कि:

SCO शिखर सम्मेलन हर साल होता है, भारत 2017 से इसका नियमित सदस्य है।
वांग यी की यात्रा लंबे समय से चल रही सीमा वार्ता का हिस्सा थी।
चीन के साथ गहराते आर्थिक संबंध भारत के लिए और बड़े व्यापार घाटे का खतरा ला सकते हैं।

फिर भी, भारत का प्रतिस्पर्धी मीडिया परिदृश्य नाटकीयता पर पनपता है। टीवी चैनलों ने इसे "भारत पश्चिम से आज़ाद हो रहा है" बताया, जबकि टैब्लॉइड्स ने "अमेरिका-विरोधी गुस्से" की बातें उछालीं। सच्चाई यह है कि भारत अपनी रणनीतिक स्वायत्तता बनाए रखता है, संतुलन साधता है और बहुपक्षीय मंचों का उपयोग करता है—न कि रातों-रात अपनी दिशा बदल देता है।

व्यापार वार्ता की वापसी

तनाव के बावजूद अमेरिका–भारत वार्ता फिर शुरू हो गई है। 16 सितंबर 2025 को नई दिल्ली में दोनों देशों के प्रतिनिधि आमने-सामने बैठे। भारत के वाणिज्य मंत्रालय ने बातचीत को "सकारात्मक और भविष्यदर्शी" बताया। प्रमुख मुद्दे शामिल हैं:

पेटेंट नियम और दवा बाज़ार तक पहुँच,
डेटा प्रवाह और ई-कॉमर्स पर अमेरिकी कंपनियों के अधिकार,
अमेरिकी कंपनियों के लिए खरीद और निवेश अवसर।

सबसे बड़ी चुनौती तेल-आधारित 25% दंड शुल्क को हटाने की है। जब तक इस पर कोई प्रगति नहीं होती, भारत से बड़ी रियायतों की उम्मीद नहीं है। लेकिन संवाद का जारी रहना इस बात का संकेत है कि दोनों पक्ष समझते हैं—रणनीतिक साझेदारी अल्पकालिक झगड़ों से बड़ी है।

पीटर नवारो की भूमिका

ट्रम्प के कड़े व्यापार सलाहकार पीटर नवारो फिर से सुर्खियों में हैं। एक हालिया साक्षात्कार में उन्होंने कहा, “भारत अब मेज़ पर आ रहा है।” उनकी कठोर चीन नीति अब भारत की रूस से तेल खरीद तक फैली है। इसका मतलब यह है कि वार्ता कठिन होगी, लेकिन साथ ही यह भी दिखाता है कि व्हाइट हाउस इस विवाद को सुलझाने में मूल्य देखता है।

आगे का रास्ता: सार या प्रदर्शन?

भविष्य इस बात पर निर्भर करेगा कि राजनीति और अर्थशास्त्र का संतुलन कैसे बैठता है। भारत का मीडिया शायद आगे भी "व्यापार की जीत" और "शुल्क का विश्वासघात" जैसे नाटकीय शीर्षकों के बीच झूलता रहेगा। वॉशिंगटन में ट्रम्प अपनी 2026 की रणनीति में "भारत पर सख़्ती" को घरेलू मतदाताओं के लिए भुना सकते हैं। वहीं मोदी को घरेलू महँगाई, चीन-विरोधी भावना और सुपरपावरों के बीच संतुलन साधने की चुनौती है।

निष्कर्ष: संदर्भ ही राजा है

अगस्त–सितंबर 2025 का यह प्रकरण हमें याद दिलाता है कि समय सुर्खियाँ बनाता है, लेकिन संदर्भ परिणाम तय करता है। शुल्कों ने बाज़ारों को हिला दिया और मीडिया की अटकलों को हवा दी, लेकिन भारत का SCO में शामिल होना और सीमा वार्ता—ये सब पहले से तय थे। असली कहानी यह है कि अमेरिका–भारत संबंधों की मज़बूती अभी भी कायम है।

मीडिया भले ही "बड़े बदलाव" की कल्पना से खिल उठे, लेकिन आने वाले वर्षों का रास्ता असली व्यापार समझौतों और ठोस वार्ताओं से तय होगा—न कि परेडों और फोटो-ऑप से।

16: Trump

जेन जी क्रान्ति (उपन्यास/नेपाली)
Gen Z Kranti (novel)
Madhya York: The Merchant and the Mystic (novel)
Side Hustles That Work In 2025
Frugal Living Tips That Work
The AI Marketing Revolution: How Artificial Intelligence is Transforming Content, Creativity, and Customer Engagement
100 Questions That Lead To Understanding
The Convergence Age: Ten Forces Reshaping Humanity’s Future
Kalkiism: The Economic And Spiritual Blueprint For An Age Of Abundance
The Last Age: Lord Kalki, Prophecy, and the Final War for Peace

Friday, September 12, 2025

12: India

The Convergence Age: Ten Forces Reshaping Humanity’s Future
Kalkiism: The Economic And Spiritual Blueprint For An Age Of Abundance
The Last Age: Lord Kalki, Prophecy, and the Final War for Peace
The Protocol of Greatness (novel)
A Reorganized UN: Built From Ground Up
The Drum Report: Markets, Tariffs, and the Man in the Basement (novel)
World War III Is Unnecessary
Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)

The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Donald Trump's approval rating nosedives in key battleground county he won According to new polling, 53 percent of people in Bucks County, a suburb of Philadelphia in Pennsylvania, view Trump unfavorably while 42 percent see him favorably. This gives the President a net approval rating of -11 percentage points. ........ Last month, a Quinnipiac poll revealed that the president has a 37 percent approval rating versus a 55 percent disapproval rating, a new low for his second term from that pollster. ......... The survey also shows that we're probably entering a period of Democratic enthusiasm. ....... President Donald Trump, in an August 24 post on Truth Social, said: "Except what is written and broadcast in the Fake News, I now have the highest poll numbers I've ever had, some in the 60's and even 70's. Thank you. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!"

A Tesla engineer quit after 8 years and slammed Elon Musk's leadership on the way out The engineer said Musk has damaged Tesla's mission, and his leadership seems "seriously compromised." ....... The employee wrote on LinkedIn that he could not convince himself that Tesla is the "right place to be." ....... "The main reason I'm leaving is that I think

Elon has dealt huge damage to Tesla's mission (and to the health of democratic institutions in several countries)

," wrote Giorgio Balestrieri, who joined Tesla in 2017 .............. "This is not just about politics: it's about lying to the public, manipulating public discourse, targeting minorities and supporting climate change deniers and political forces aligned with the oil and gas industry," he wrote. ......... Autobidder is Tesla's automated energy trading platform that allows its batteries to act like virtual power plants — buying and selling electricity on the grid in real time. The system is a key part of Tesla's energy storage business. ...... The board is as behind him as ever, proposing an unprecedented $1 trillion pay package, signalling how important they think Musk is to Tesla's future.

Friday, September 05, 2025

SEZs: India’s Fast Track to Global Competitiveness

India has long sought to climb the global Ease of Doing Business Index, aiming to improve its overall ranking as a way to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). While this is a worthy goal, the path is slow and fraught with bureaucratic resistance at national and state levels. A faster and more effective approach would be to develop Special Economic Zones (SEZs) designed to rank number one globally on the same index, making them magnets for global and Chinese capital alike.

Why SEZs Over Nationwide Reform?

Nationwide reforms are necessary but notoriously difficult to implement across a diverse and federalized system like India’s. By contrast, SEZs allow for concentrated reform—world-class infrastructure, streamlined regulations, and investor-friendly tax policies—within defined zones. This creates islands of excellence that can quickly demonstrate success and set benchmarks for broader reforms.

China itself used this playbook to stunning effect in the 1980s. Shenzhen transformed from a fishing village into a global technology hub in a matter of decades, largely because it operated under rules that made it vastly easier to do business compared to the rest of China. India can replicate this model—only faster, given today’s technologies and capital flows.

Balancing the Trade Deficit With China

India’s trade deficit with China remains a persistent vulnerability, driven by heavy imports of electronics, machinery, and intermediate goods. One smart way to balance this is not to restrict trade, but to invite equivalent inflows of Chinese FDI. If China invests in India’s manufacturing and infrastructure through SEZs, the capital inflows can offset trade deficits while also creating jobs, technology transfer, and new export capacity.

But for Chinese firms—or any global investor—to commit billions, they need certainty. They must be confident that India can provide the infrastructure, regulatory predictability, and competitive environment they enjoy elsewhere. This is where SEZs, if executed right, become the solution.

Global Case Studies in SEZ Success

1. Shenzhen, China

Perhaps the most famous SEZ in the world, Shenzhen was designated as China’s first SEZ in 1980. With tax incentives, simplified regulations, and heavy infrastructure investment, Shenzhen evolved from a fishing village into a megacity of over 12 million people. Today, it is home to tech giants like Huawei, Tencent, and DJI, and is regarded as the “Silicon Valley of Hardware.”

Lesson for India: A clear policy environment and strong infrastructure can turn even underdeveloped regions into global economic powerhouses in a single generation.

2. Jebel Ali Free Zone (JAFZA), UAE

Established in 1985, Jebel Ali Free Zone in Dubai is one of the most successful free trade zones globally. It leverages proximity to the Jebel Ali Port and Dubai International Airport, offering foreign investors 100% ownership, zero corporate tax, and excellent logistics. JAFZA contributes nearly a quarter of Dubai’s GDP.

Lesson for India: Location matters. Pairing SEZs with ports, highways, and airports creates a seamless ecosystem that investors value.

3. GIFT City, India

Closer to home, Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (GIFT City) is India’s first operational smart city and global financial hub. While still nascent, it showcases what India can achieve by offering regulatory clarity, infrastructure, and global-standard services. It has attracted both domestic and international banks, insurers, and stock exchanges.

Lesson for India: Even within India’s federal complexity, targeted regulatory and infrastructural innovations can attract global players.

SEZs as a Shortcut to Reform

Well-designed SEZs solve three major problems at once:

Infrastructure bottlenecks – With dedicated ports, logistics hubs, and uninterrupted power supply, SEZs can leapfrog India’s broader infrastructure challenges.
Regulatory delays – A single-window clearance system within SEZs can dramatically cut red tape, giving investors speed and certainty.
Global perception – If India can showcase SEZs ranked number one in the world for ease of doing business, it will send a powerful signal that the country is open, capable, and ready for capital.

The Strategic Payoff

For India, SEZs are not just an economic tool but a strategic one. They allow the country to:

Reduce its dependence on imports by attracting manufacturing FDI.
Balance its China trade deficit without escalating into protectionism.
Position itself as a premier destination for global capital in an era when supply chains are shifting away from China.

Conclusion: Instead of waiting decades to inch up the global Ease of Doing Business Index, India can leapfrog ahead by creating globally top-ranked SEZs. Drawing on lessons from Shenzhen, Jebel Ali, and GIFT City, India can build high-speed engines for growth, attract Chinese and global FDI, and transform its trade and investment landscape in record time.

भारत की वैश्विक प्रतिस्पर्धा का शॉर्टकट: विशेष आर्थिक क्षेत्र (SEZs)

भारत लंबे समय से ईज़ ऑफ डूइंग बिज़नेस इंडेक्स पर अपनी रैंकिंग सुधारने की कोशिश करता आया है, ताकि अधिक प्रत्यक्ष विदेशी निवेश (FDI) आकर्षित कर सके। यह लक्ष्य उचित है, लेकिन इस दिशा में प्रगति धीमी है और राष्ट्रीय तथा राज्य स्तर पर नौकरशाही बाधाओं से भरी हुई है। इसकी तुलना में एक तेज़ और प्रभावी रास्ता यह होगा कि भारत ऐसे विशेष आर्थिक क्षेत्र (SEZs) विकसित करे जो वैश्विक स्तर पर इस इंडेक्स में नंबर एक पर हों, ताकि वे चीनी और वैश्विक पूंजी दोनों को अपनी ओर खींच सकें।

पूरे देश में सुधार क्यों कठिन, और SEZ क्यों बेहतर?

पूरे देश में सुधार करना ज़रूरी है लेकिन यह बेहद कठिन और धीमी प्रक्रिया है, ख़ासकर भारत जैसे विविधतापूर्ण और संघीय ढाँचे वाले देश में। इसके विपरीत, SEZs के ज़रिए केंद्रित सुधार संभव हैं—विश्वस्तरीय बुनियादी ढाँचा, सरल नियम, और निवेशक-अनुकूल कर नीतियाँ—जो सीमित दायरे में तुरंत लागू की जा सकती हैं। इससे उत्कृष्टता के द्वीप तैयार होते हैं जो बाकी देश के लिए मानक तय कर सकते हैं।

चीन ने 1980 के दशक में इसी मॉडल का उपयोग कर चमत्कारी सफलता हासिल की। शेनझेन एक मछली पकड़ने वाले गाँव से वैश्विक तकनीकी केंद्र में बदल गया, क्योंकि वहाँ पूरे चीन की तुलना में व्यापार करना बेहद आसान बना दिया गया था। भारत इस मॉडल को दोहरा सकता है—बल्कि और तेज़ी से, आधुनिक तकनीक और पूंजी प्रवाह की मदद से।

चीन के साथ व्यापार घाटे का समाधान

भारत का चीन के साथ व्यापार घाटा लगातार बना हुआ है, क्योंकि भारत इलेक्ट्रॉनिक्स, मशीनरी और अन्य औद्योगिक सामान बड़े पैमाने पर आयात करता है। इसका स्मार्ट समाधान यह है कि व्यापार को सीमित करने की बजाय चीन से बराबर का प्रत्यक्ष निवेश (FDI) आकर्षित किया जाए। यदि चीन भारत के विनिर्माण और अवसंरचना में SEZs के माध्यम से निवेश करता है, तो पूंजी का यह प्रवाह व्यापार घाटे की भरपाई करेगा और साथ ही नौकरियाँ, तकनीक और नए निर्यात के अवसर भी पैदा करेगा।

लेकिन किसी भी चीनी या वैश्विक निवेशक को अरबों डॉलर लगाने के लिए भरोसा चाहिए। उन्हें निश्चितता चाहिए कि भारत उन्हें वही अवसंरचना, नियामकीय स्थिरता और प्रतिस्पर्धी वातावरण देगा जो उन्हें अन्य देशों में मिलता है। यही भरोसा SEZs, यदि सही तरीके से लागू किए जाएँ, तो प्रदान कर सकते हैं।

वैश्विक सफलता की कहानियाँ

1. शेनझेन, चीन

शायद दुनिया का सबसे प्रसिद्ध SEZ, शेनझेन को 1980 में चीन का पहला विशेष आर्थिक क्षेत्र घोषित किया गया था। कर प्रोत्साहनों, सरल नियमों और बड़े पैमाने पर अवसंरचना निवेश के साथ, शेनझेन एक मछली पकड़ने वाले गाँव से 1.2 करोड़ की आबादी वाला महानगर बन गया। आज यह हुवावे, टेनसेंट और DJI जैसे दिग्गजों का घर है और इसे “हार्डवेयर की सिलिकॉन वैली” कहा जाता है।

भारत के लिए सबक: स्पष्ट नीतिगत वातावरण और मज़बूत अवसंरचना किसी भी पिछड़े क्षेत्र को एक पीढ़ी में वैश्विक शक्ति बना सकती है।

2. जेबेल अली फ्री ज़ोन (JAFZA), यूएई

1985 में स्थापित, जेबेल अली फ्री ज़ोन दुनिया के सबसे सफल मुक्त व्यापार क्षेत्रों में से एक है। दुबई के जेबेल अली बंदरगाह और अंतरराष्ट्रीय हवाई अड्डे के पास स्थित, यह विदेशी निवेशकों को 100% स्वामित्व, शून्य कॉर्पोरेट टैक्स और उत्कृष्ट लॉजिस्टिक्स प्रदान करता है। JAFZA आज दुबई की GDP का लगभग एक-चौथाई योगदान देता है।

भारत के लिए सबक: स्थान (लोकेशन) बहुत मायने रखता है। यदि SEZs को बंदरगाहों, राजमार्गों और हवाई अड्डों से जोड़ा जाए तो निवेशकों को एक सहज पारिस्थितिकी तंत्र मिलता है।

3. गिफ्ट सिटी, भारत

भारत में ही, गुजरात इंटरनेशनल फाइनेंस टेक-सिटी (गिफ्ट सिटी) पहला परिचालन स्मार्ट सिटी और वैश्विक वित्तीय हब है। अभी यह प्रारंभिक अवस्था में है, लेकिन यह दिखाता है कि भारत भी नियामकीय स्पष्टता और विश्वस्तरीय अवसंरचना देकर वैश्विक निवेशकों को आकर्षित कर सकता है। यहाँ घरेलू और अंतरराष्ट्रीय बैंक, बीमा कंपनियाँ और स्टॉक एक्सचेंज पहले ही सक्रिय हो चुके हैं।

भारत के लिए सबक: भारत की जटिल संघीय संरचना के भीतर भी लक्षित नवाचार वैश्विक खिलाड़ियों को आकर्षित कर सकता है।

SEZs: सुधार का शॉर्टकट

अच्छी तरह डिज़ाइन किए गए SEZs तीन बड़ी समस्याओं का समाधान करते हैं:

बुनियादी ढाँचे की बाधाएँ – समर्पित बंदरगाह, लॉजिस्टिक्स हब और लगातार बिजली आपूर्ति के साथ, SEZs पूरे देश की अवसंरचना चुनौतियों को पार कर सकते हैं।
नियामकीय देरी – SEZs में सिंगल-विंडो क्लियरेंस प्रणाली लालफीताशाही को घटाकर निवेशकों को गति और निश्चितता देती है।
वैश्विक छवि – यदि भारत ऐसे SEZs दिखा सके जो विश्व में ईज़ ऑफ डूइंग बिज़नेस में नंबर एक हों, तो यह दुनिया को एक सशक्त संदेश देगा कि भारत खुला है, सक्षम है और पूंजी के लिए तैयार है।

रणनीतिक लाभ

भारत के लिए SEZs केवल आर्थिक उपकरण नहीं बल्कि रणनीतिक साधन भी हैं। इनके माध्यम से भारत:

विनिर्माण FDI आकर्षित कर आयात पर निर्भरता घटा सकता है।
चीन के साथ व्यापार घाटे को संतुलित कर सकता है, बिना संरक्षणवाद अपनाए।
वैश्विक आपूर्ति शृंखलाओं के चीन से बाहर स्थानांतरित होने के दौर में खुद को प्रमुख गंतव्य बना सकता है।

निष्कर्ष: पूरे देश की रैंकिंग सुधारने के लिए दशकों तक इंतज़ार करने की बजाय भारत सीधे छलांग लगा सकता है और वैश्विक स्तर पर नंबर एक SEZs बना सकता है। शेनझेन, जेबेल अली और गिफ्ट सिटी से सबक लेते हुए भारत ऐसे उच्च-गति वाले विकास इंजन बना सकता है जो चीनी और वैश्विक FDI को आकर्षित करें और व्यापार व निवेश परिदृश्य को रिकॉर्ड समय में बदल दें।

Thursday, September 04, 2025

4: Trump, Trade, Tariff

Trump Is Trying to Blackmail the Supreme Court The legal arguments for Trump’s tariffs are weak, so he’s arguing their rejection would bring ruin. ........ The desperation is both palpable and warranted given the conspicuous weakness of the administration’s legal arguments, as underscored by a series of lower court rulings against him. That has in turn led the president and his aides to make increasingly histrionic public claims about what will happen if the Supreme Court does not cave and side with Trump. ...... Call it The Chicken Little Defense: If the courts do not sign off on the administration’s tariffs, it “would be a total disaster for the Country” and “would literally destroy the United States of America,” Trump said on Friday after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled that the bulk of the president’s tariffs are illegal. He doubled down on those claims on Tuesday while tacking on the transparently ridiculous assertion that

the U.S. is “taking in $17 trillion … because of tariffs.”

............. This should all be seen for what it is — a tacit admission that the administration is on very weak footing as a legal matter. The most charitable interpretation of the effort is that the administration is lobbying the Supreme Court to engage in the sort of outcome-driven judicial activism that conservatives have long claimed to hate. A less generous read of the situation is that this is an effort to politically blackmail the court into giving Trump what he wants even if it is clearly unlawful or unconstitutional. .......... The administration has been pursuing this strategy in the lower courts for months, and it has so far flopped. ............ Trump claimed last month that a loss would yield “a GREAT DEPRESSION.” Solicitor General John Sauer and Brett Shumate, who heads the Justice Department’s Civil Division, told the court that “the United States was a dead country” before Trump took office and that “the economic consequences” of a loss “would be ruinous, instead of unprecedented success.” .......... Last Friday, Rubio upped the ante by claiming that an adverse ruling would make it harder for the administration to end the war in Ukraine. ............. These over-the-top claims make some sense if you have been following the administration’s floundering in the courts. The administration’s IEEPA tariffs have been on weak legal footing from the start, and the government’s arguments have not gotten any better over time.
What’s less clear is whether this Supreme Court, which has shown Trump stunning deference again and again, will care.
.......... IEEPA — a statute that is generally used to impose economic sanctions — does not even contain the word “tariffs,” and before Trump, no president had attempted to use IEEPA to impose tariffs in the nearly 50 years since the statute has been on the books. In fact, Congress passed IEEPA to limit the president’s emergency economic powers — not to give him the ability to impose a massive tax increase on Americans without congressional approval, or to disrupt the global financial system whenever he wants and for whatever reason he wants. ........ the “major questions doctrine” developed in recent years by the Republican appointees on the Supreme Court. Under that doctrine, when an executive action crosses some undefined threshold of “economic and political significance,” there must be a clear delegation of authority from Congress. If that does not exist, then the action is unlawful. .......... Conservatives cheered this theory on when the conservative majority on the Supreme Court used it to toss out the bulk of Joe Biden’s student-loan forgiveness plan, but the proposed economic impact of that initiative pales in comparison to Trump’s tariff policy. A model from Yale University currently estimates that Trump’s tariffs will increase inflation and cost the average American household $2,400 this year alone; that the tariffs will result in half-a-million lost jobs by the end of the year; and that they will shrink the American economy by about $125 billion a year. The model estimates that the government would raise $2.7 trillion in revenue through the tariffs, which amount to a large and regressive tax on the American people. .............. In the face of all this, the Trump administration’s legal defense boils down to the claim that IEEPA gives the president the statutory power to “regulate” imports, and that this effectively gives the president carte blanche to impose tariffs whenever he wants and for whatever reason he wants. This may sound persuasive if you know nothing else about the relevant legal framework, but as the Federal Circuit concluded last week, “the mere authorization to ‘regulate’ does not in and of itself imply the authority to impose tariffs.” Indeed, the Constitution itself distinguishes between the power to regulate and the power to tax. ......... it is not the job of the Supreme Court to save the president, his Cabinet or his lawyers from their own mistakes or to prevent them from being embarrassed on the international stage. That can happen anytime the court rules against the sitting president in a major executive-power case, and that tension is an essential part of judicial review and the American constitutional system. ....... On the legal merits, all of this should be sufficient for the Republican appointees on the court to rule against Trump, but there is an added ancillary benefit for them: They could side with the American public at a time when their credibility is in the tank. ...........
According to a Gallup poll released last month, the Supreme Court’s approval has hit yet another all-time low.
This can likely be chalked up to the Republican appointees’ decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022 and a series of major victories that they have handed Trump since he returned to office. .......... roughly 60 percent of the American public opposes the tariffs, and according to a poll aggregator from the New York Times, Trump’s approval rating is well underwater — with 43 percent of Americans approving and 52 percent of Americans disapproving of his performance. ......... Exhibit A is the Trump immunity ruling that the conservative justices handed down last summer, which paved the way for Trump’s reelection. The conservatives on the court claim to be textualists and originalists, but in that ruling, all six of them issued a decision with no basis in the text of the Constitution or the Framers’ expectations. The other way for conservative justices to contort themselves in Trump’s favor is to adopt the administration’s claim that IEEPA is an ambiguous and open-ended presidential foreign policy tool, despite the evidence to the contrary. The Supreme Court has a long tradition of deferring to presidents on foreign affairs and national security issues, and if the conservatives are intent on sticking with Trump, it’s an obvious path. ......... Ultimately there is no way to definitively predict how the conservatives will approach the tariff case. Only two of them need to join the three Democratic appointees to rule against Trump, but that was true in the immunity case too. ......... the Trump tariff policy may turn out to have been a political, legal and diplomatic debacle of historic proportions. The Trump administration has spent the last six months frustrating and antagonizing our allies with an endlessly changing policy that has thoroughly disrupted the global economic system, while also proposing to unilaterally and dramatically raise taxes on the American public without the input of their elected representatives. ............. if Trump is right — if his tariffs are necessary and wonderful and will stave off a Great Depression while also bringing an end to the Russia-Ukraine war — then he should go to Congress and get it to pass a law codifying them. ........... the tariffs are very unpopular and most GOP lawmakers have no interest in voting for them. ...........
The question “Where’s Congress?” has become one of the defining questions of the second Trump term.
........... Republicans on Capitol Hill have let Trump have his way pretty much all year. The fact that they will not bail him out here is telling....... Will the Republican appointees on the Supreme Court do it instead? We are about to find out.

Trump Asks Supreme Court to Allow His Sweeping Tariffs A federal appeals court had invalidated a centerpiece of President Trump’s economic strategy, finding that a 1977 law did not authorize the tariffs. ......... The Trump administration on Wednesday asked the Supreme Court to move swiftly to allow the president to continue imposing sprawling tariffs on nations around the world, setting up a major test of his trade policies and his expansion of executive power. ............ Solicitor General D. John Sauer asked the justices to decide by Sept. 10 whether to review the case and to schedule oral argument for the first week of November — just one month after the court’s new term begins. If the justices accept the case, it would be the first to reach the court in Mr. Trump’s second term that directly tests the legality of one of the administration’s signature initiatives rather than addressing the president’s actions on a temporary emergency basis. .......... The lower court’s “erroneous decision has disrupted highly impactful, sensitive, ongoing diplomatic trade negotiations, and cast a pall of legal uncertainty over the president’s efforts to protect our country by preventing an unprecedented economic and foreign-policy crisis,” the solicitor general told the justices in his request for highly expedited review. ............ In its 7-to-4 ruling, the appeals court said the tariffs were a core constitutional power given to Congress and noted that the statute at issue did not include the word “tariffs” nor synonyms such as “tax” or “duty.” ............ “The power of the purse (including the power to tax) belongs to Congress,” the appeals court said in an unsigned opinion. ........ Mr. Trump’s lawyers characterized the tariffs as the administration’s “most significant economic and foreign-policy initiative,” which the president has “determined are necessary to rectify America’s country-killing trade deficits and to stem the flood of fentanyl across our borders.” ......... A coalition of prominent conservative and libertarian lawyers, scholars and former officials filed a brief in June opposing Mr. Trump’s tariffs and emphasizing that the powers to tax must remain with Congress. ...... The statute “embodies an eyes-open congressional grant of broad emergency authority in this foreign-affairs realm, which unsurprisingly extends beyond authorities available under nonemergency laws,” wrote Judge Richard G. Taranto, a nominee of President Barack Obama, who was joined by three other judges.

NYC Mayor Eric Adams faces a decision: A Trump administration post to drop his reelection campaign The embattled New York City mayor was offered a HUD post, a person familiar with the talks tells POLITICO.

John Deere, a U.S. Icon, Is Undermined by Tariffs and Struggling Farmers The tractor maker said that sales were down and that higher metal tariffs would cost it $600 million, while American farmers face dwindling overseas demand for some crops. ......... John Deere, the leading supplier of agricultural machinery in the United States. ....... One of the country’s largest manufacturers is worse off now than it was six months ago. ........ Higher tariffs, primarily on steel but also on aluminum, have cost the company $300 million so far, with nearly another $300 million expected by the end of the year. This summer the company laid off 238 employees across factories in Illinois and Iowa. ........ Yet John Deere is just the sort of manufacturing powerhouse that Mr. Trump says he wants more of in the United States. The company, based in Moline, Ill., has made farm equipment since 1837. Its green-and-yellow tractors, combines and sprayers help farmers feed the country and produce billions of dollars’ worth of crops for export. ........ The company employs 30,000 workers in 60 facilities across the country and said more than 75 percent of its machines were assembled in the United States. Just 25 percent of the components used in its products come from foreign countries, John Deere said.......... After Mr. Trump announced steep tariffs on Chinese goods this year, China placed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans in March. Soy exports to China are down 51 percent this year, and the country hasn’t made any advance purchases of soybeans for the upcoming harvest. U.S. growers are expected to receive $3.4 billion less for their soybean crop than they did last year, according to the Agriculture Department.

Late Night Thinks Trump Has a Case of Parade Envy “It sounds like somebody’s bummed he wasn’t invited to the supervillain sleepover,” Jimmy Kimmel said of the president’s reaction to China’s big military parade............. “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America.” ........ “All of Trump’s strongman crushes were there. It felt like it was staged specifically to upset — it was like the diplomatic equivalent of posting a bikini shot to make your ex jealous.” — JIMMY KIMMEL ........ “Trump really wants to get the Epstein files off the front page. Today he ordered Travis and Taylor to get engaged again.” — JIMMY FALLON

US Supreme Court poised to resolve clashes over Trump's power President Donald Trump has pushed the boundaries of executive power to impose sweeping tariffs, crack down on immigration and attempt to fire a Federal Reserve governor, and these actions could dominate the U.S. Supreme Court's upcoming docket......... "It's about to be, 'Does the president have the power to do that?' season at the Supreme Court," said Loyola Law School professor Jessica Levinson. "While each case brings up slightly different issues, when and if the Supreme Court tackles deportations, tariffs and the firing of members of executive agencies, the big question will be whether or not President Trump had the authority to take those actions." ......... The court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, has already handed major wins to the Republican president in his second term, granting emergency requests to implement his policies while challenges play out in lower courts. ........ "The scope of executive power has been - and will continue to be - the recurring legal issue of Trump’s second term," said Robert Luther III, a George Mason University law professor. “And why wouldn't President Trump want it to be? The Supreme Court has consistently backed his muscular assertions of presidential power." ....... The Alien Enemies Act expansively empowers the government to detain and deport citizens of hostile nations in times of war or during an "invasion or predatory incursion.” The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals blocked the deportation of Venezuelan migrants under the law, rejecting the administration’s view that the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua had made a "predatory incursion" on U.S. soil.

Alarm as US far-right extremists eye drones for use in domestic attacks Experts say extremists openly talking of how home-built drones will be critical tool in so-called second civil war ...... And there’s ample reasons for those fears: in the open and closed online spaces where far-right extremists congregate, talk is commonplace of how these cheap drones are revolutionizing current wars and will be the critical tools of a so-called second civil war. ........ Fisher-Birch gave the recent example of a neo-Nazi in Nashville who plotted to bomb a power station with a drone, but was foiled by police. According to Fisher-Birch, there is already extremist chatter observing how criminal groups use the drones as force multipliers against government forces. ......... Multiple sources told the Guardian that the FBI has major concerns about the accelerationist neo-Nazi sect on the far right – one calling for an insurgency against the US government – and other ultra-violent actors in the same ideological space, eyeing the use of FPV drones for domestic attacks. ......... “I am a drone operator, one of the first in the infantry,” said an anonymous neo-Nazi and Substack writer who is an avowed ex-member of the Atomwaffen Division (AWD), a now defunct and proscribed terrorist organization linked to multiple murders in the US. “The drones the military uses are entirely useless when you look at the reality on the ground in Ukraine. The future is cheap, 3D-printed drones with a [high-explosive] round zip tied to it.” ......... Within the more organized terrorist underbelly of parallel groups to the AWD, such as the Base, long the subject of a nationwide counter-terrorism investigation, veterans and active-duty soldiers like the writer are coveted and intentionally recruited as operatives. Last year, Rinaldo Nazzaro, founder and leader of the Base who is himself a former Pentagon contractor, offered money to any veteran willing to school his stateside cadres in paramilitarism. .......... Brandon Russell, the founder of the AWD, is a veteran who idolizes Timothy McVeigh and was recently found guilty of planning to destroy Maryland substations in an effort to take out the Baltimore power grid. .........