Barackface

Sunday, July 06, 2025

6: Trade

He is only off by 17,000,000. https://t.co/aAjr6jjbNl
— Congressman Brendan Boyle (@RepBrendanBoyle) July 6, 2025

Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

The world is dangerously close to a new crisis
MAGA Congressional Candidate Calls Texas Floods ‘Fake’: It’s ‘Murder’
Ukraine to receive hundreds of thousands of drones in US deal – Zelenskyy Quote from Zelenskyy: "It will provide Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of drones as early as this year, on special terms, and even significantly more drones the following year. This includes interceptor drones, which are clearly our priority." ......... Details: He emphasised that the task for the state, the defence forces of Ukraine and all businesses working in this area is to increase weekly results in the production and use of interceptor drones........ Background: In an evening address on 5 July, Zelenskyy said that his conversation with US President Donald Trump, which took place the day before, was the best and most productive in the history of communication between the leaders.

Trump team moves goalposts on tariffs again Bessent told CNN's "State of the Union" that the Trump administration would be sending out letters to 100 smaller countries “saying that if you don't move things along, then on August 1st, you will boomerang back to your April 2nd tariff level.” ........ the return of tariffs of between 10 and 50 percent on dozens of countries. It comes as Trump administration officials increasingly hint at difficulties in nailing down deals. ......... Since announcing sweeping so-called reciprocal tariffs, the Trump administration has only signed agreements with the United Kingdom and Vietnam, as well as a limited deal with China that saw both countries walk back sky-high tit-for-tat tariff rates temporarily. The U.S. is also reportedly close to reaching a deal with India, and the European Union, which Trump once accused of slow-walking negotiations, appears willing to make significant concessions for a deal. ........ what's great about having President Trump on our side is he's created maximum leverage," Bessent said. ........... Trump told reporters Friday that letters could be sent to a dozen countries as soon as Monday, with tariff rates ranging from ”'60 or 70 percent to 10 or 20 percent.” He said the fees would take effect Aug. 1,

while again falsely claiming that foreign countries pay the tariffs — which are actually paid by U.S. importers.

Donald Trump signs disaster declaration for deadly Texas floods

Russian weapons base explodes as Ukraine pummels Putin's prized assets in devastating blow
How Healthcare Cuts in the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Will Affect Americans
Elon Musk's new party: who has declared interest? Mark Cuban and Anthony Scaramucci. ....... Posting on X, Marc Cuban, a billionaire businessman and TV personality suggested he was interested in the party, sharing fireworks emojis then writing: "I work with [Center for Competitive Democracy]. They will help you get on ballots. That is their mission." ...... Anthony Scaramucci, who was fired by Donald Trump just 10 days into the job as White House communications director in 2017, wrote: "I would like to meet to discuss." ....... Social media personality Brian Krassenstein, who has over 900,000 followers, wrote: "Awesome! Where can we see more information?" ........ Roger Stone, a longtime Republican strategist and Trump loyalist, said: "I have huge respect for @elonmusk and everything he has done for free speech and to ferret out waste fraud and corruption in federal spending, but I would rather see him pursue his efforts at electoral reform within the Republican Party primaries rather than having a new party splitting the vote of sane people and letting the Marxist Democrats gain control again."

Is this the America Party platform?

-reduce debt, responsible spending only
-modernize military with ai/robotics
-pro tech, accelerate to win in ai
-less regulation across board but especially in energy
-free speech
-pro natalist
-centrist policies everywhere else

If so…
— Tyler Palmer (@tyler__palmer) July 5, 2025

The Tesla Of Political Parties https://t.co/NpochJhLyk
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 6, 2025

Opinion: Trump’s trade brinkmanship imperils market stability As the United States and China inch toward formalizing the outcomes of their recent economic talks in London, markets are sending a clear signal: they want stability, not another season of tariff theatrics. Yet the Trump administration’s renewed protectionist tilt, including the looming July 9 deadline for punitive tariffs, risks derailing a fragile recovery and undermining American economic resilience. ........ Economic coercion has failed to deliver strategic outcomes. Markets, manufacturers and consumers are all still paying the price of the last trade war. ......... Rare earths remain a critical node in this standoff. China refines nearly 80 percent of the global supply — inputs essential to American electric vehicles, semiconductors and defense technologies. When Beijing halted export approvals earlier this year, U.S. manufacturers faced mounting delays and soaring input costs. ........ The reversal eases a significant bottleneck and offers inflation relief. In exchange, China will regain access to U.S. manufacturing inputs and regulatory clarity — a win for both sides, but especially for U.S. firms squeezed by global supply chain frictions. ........ export volumes from China had fallen nearly 50 percent year-over-year in May, citing tightened controls......... markets reward policy clarity, even in geopolitically charged commodity markets. ......... Yet the calm is temporary. Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff framework proposes up to 50 percent duties on countries that fail to sign new bilateral deals by July 9. A 90-day grace period has been offered, but this is brinkmanship disguised as strategy. And if the deadline passes without a broader deal, the tariffs snap back — with potentially damaging ripple effects. .......... The last trade escalation offers a cautionary tale. Tariffs on Chinese goods hit 145 percent; Beijing responded with levies up to 125 percent. American manufacturers endured record costs, while exporters in both countries lost access to reliable markets. The U.S. goods trade deficit with China didn’t shrink — it widened to $396 billion in 2024. Meanwhile, American farmers faced oversupply, and consumers bore the burden through higher prices. ........... Markets are signaling that certainty matters — not tariff theatrics. The contrast is clear: a modest trade framework sparks calm; tariff threats inject volatility. That is the heartbeat investors care about. ........... Only now, as trade talks signal détente, has the S&P 500 rallied and oil futures stabilized. Markets know the difference between real strategy and performative populism. So do the businesses that depend on open trade. .........

Trump’s tariffs didn’t reshore factories or rebalance the trade deficit. What they did do was erode U.S. credibility with allies, invite World Trade Organization scrutiny and distort global supply chains. If the objective was to discipline China’s behavior, the evidence shows failure. What has worked — albeit modestly — is targeted cooperation, regulatory certainty and consistent enforcement of existing rules.

.......... Legal uncertainty still clouds the picture. A recent federal court ruling in V.O.S. Selections v. United States raises questions about whether the White House even has the authority to implement broad-based tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. If the decision is upheld, it will undercut the legal rationale for Trump’s tariff agenda — and perhaps prompt overdue congressional clarity on trade powers. ......... The broader lesson is clear: economic interdependence isn’t weakness — it’s leverage. The U.S. and China will remain strategic competitors, but durable competition requires rules, not impulsive penalty regimes that backfire on domestic producers. ..........
protectionism is not a patriotic virtue but an economic deadweight.
...... For now, Washington would do well to recognize what the S&P already has: stability is strength. And the best way to keep markets calm is not through tariffs — but through smart, disciplined diplomacy.

MAGA Melts Down as Musk Files Paperwork for ‘America Party’

How China Can Escape the Middle-Income Trap and Reclaim Double-Digit Growth with Clean Energy

How China Can Escape the Middle-Income Trap and Reclaim Double-Digit Growth with Clean Energy

As China stands at the crossroads of economic maturity and geopolitical complexity, the question arises: can it reignite the double-digit growth that once defined its rise without sacrificing sustainability? The answer may lie in bold political and economic reforms that enable a clean-energy-powered transformation. Escaping the middle-income trap—a condition where a country stagnates after reaching moderate income levels—requires more than tweaking the status quo. It demands a new developmental model rooted in innovation, green technology, and governance reform.

Understanding the Trap

The middle-income trap occurs when rising wages and costs erode competitiveness in low-end manufacturing, but a country lacks the institutional, technological, or human capital base to transition to high-value industries. China is perilously close to this scenario. Its once-unbeatable export machine now faces aging demographics, rising debt, environmental degradation, and geopolitical decoupling.

Yet, China's state capacity, vast domestic market, and technological progress mean that it's not stuck—yet. But escaping will require deep shifts.

I. Economic Reforms: From Imitation to Innovation

1. Restructure the Growth Model

China must pivot from investment-led growth to consumption- and innovation-driven development. Infrastructure has diminishing returns. The focus should now be on quality of growth, not quantity.

Boost household incomes through social safety nets, pension reform, and rural land rights reform, so people spend more.
Shift capital from state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to more productive private sector players, especially in high-tech and green sectors.
Open financial markets further to allocate capital more efficiently and reduce reliance on shadow banking and local government debt.

2. Accelerate High-Value Innovation

Innovation is the only path to climb the global value chain. China has made progress in AI, EVs, and quantum computing, but to leap ahead, it needs systemic support.

Invest in basic research, not just applied tech. The U.S. university system still beats China in foundational innovation.
Encourage entrepreneurial ecosystems beyond Tier-1 cities by decentralizing capital and talent incentives.
Protect intellectual property rights (IPR) to attract foreign and domestic R&D.

3. Decarbonize the Economy with Industrial Policy

To become a global leader in clean energy and climate tech, China must go beyond exporting solar panels and EVs. It must internalize clean energy across its economy.

End coal addiction by retiring inefficient plants and redirecting subsidies toward renewables.
Electrify transportation and industry, from EV adoption to green hydrogen in steel and cement.
Build a smart grid that can handle renewable intermittency, energy storage, and real-time carbon pricing.

II. Political Reforms: From Control to Capability

While China doesn’t need Western-style democracy to escape the trap, it does need more adaptive and accountable governance.

1. Empower Local Governments with Autonomy + Accountability

Centralized micromanagement from Beijing is inefficient for a diverse economy.

Experimentation zones (like Shenzhen in the 1980s) should be revived for testing labor, tax, and green policy innovations.
Tie local officials’ promotion not just to GDP but to innovation, emissions reduction, and social equity outcomes.

2. Strengthen the Rule of Law and Regulatory Transparency

Foreign capital and domestic entrepreneurs need predictability and fairness.

Transparent regulatory frameworks will reduce risk premiums and encourage long-term investment.
Independent courts and dispute resolution systems are vital to trust in contracts and private property.

3. Enhance Political Feedback Mechanisms

One-party rule can survive if it's responsive. That means:

Allowing civil society to flourish in controlled spaces, especially around local governance, environment, and consumer rights.
Strengthening the media and think tanks that provide feedback on policy implementation without threatening core authority.

III. Demographic and Social Reforms: Human Capital is the New Oil

China’s population is shrinking. Labor is no longer cheap, and productivity gains must now come from human capital.

1. Overhaul the Hukou System

China’s household registration system is outdated and hampers labor mobility. Reforming it would unleash urban consumption and workforce dynamism.

2. Expand Access to High-Quality Education

From vocational training to university STEM programs, China must build a globally competitive talent base. Equitable education access across rural and urban areas is key.

3. Healthcare and Retirement Reform

An aging population needs security. Investing in healthcare infrastructure and expanding pension coverage will reduce household savings rates and boost consumption.

IV. Geopolitical Strategy: Navigate Multipolarity with Economic Diplomacy

China’s global rise is now constrained by its fraying relations with the West. A smart economic strategy must be coupled with deft diplomacy.

Avoid overreliance on domestic circulation and decoupling. Instead, diversify trade partners (BRI 2.0), supply chains, and financial ties.
Promote the yuan cautiously as an international currency without triggering capital flight.
Lead in global green standards—e.g., carbon border taxes, ESG norms, and clean-tech exports.

V. Double-Digit Growth with Clean Energy: Is It Possible?

Yes, but only through a qualitative leap—not just building more factories or pouring more cement.

China’s clean energy sector is already a global leader in solar, wind, EVs, and batteries. If China doubles down on decarbonization, makes its cities carbon-neutral, and becomes the world’s climate-tech factory, it can:

Add millions of new jobs in renewable industries.
Export clean growth models to the Global South.
Lower long-term healthcare and climate costs.
Drive productivity through green innovation.

Conclusion: The Green Leap Forward

China cannot grow forever on the back of steel and concrete. Its future lies in silicon and sunlight. Escaping the middle-income trap isn’t just about avoiding stagnation—it's about reimagining growth in a post-carbon age.

Political flexibility, market liberalization, green industrial strategy, and investment in people are not luxuries—they are necessities.

The world is watching. The dragon must now fly on clean wings. 🐉⚡🌱

कैसे चीन मध्य-आय जाल से बाहर निकल सकता है और स्वच्छ ऊर्जा के साथ दोहरे अंकों की विकास दर प्राप्त कर सकता है

जैसे ही चीन आर्थिक परिपक्वता और भू-राजनीतिक जटिलताओं के चौराहे पर खड़ा है, यह प्रश्न उठता है: क्या वह एक बार फिर से दोहरे अंकों की तेज़ विकास दर हासिल कर सकता है—वो भी बिना पर्यावरण की कीमत चुकाए? इसका उत्तर "हां" हो सकता है—लेकिन इसके लिए साहसिक राजनीतिक और आर्थिक सुधारों की ज़रूरत होगी, जो स्वच्छ ऊर्जा से संचालित एक नए विकास मॉडल की नींव रखें।

मध्य-आय जाल को समझना

जब किसी देश की मजदूरी और लागत इतनी बढ़ जाती है कि वह सस्ती विनिर्माण प्रतिस्पर्धा खो देता है, लेकिन वह उच्च मूल्य वाले उद्योगों में बदलाव के लिए आवश्यक नवाचार या संस्थागत ढांचा विकसित नहीं कर पाता, तो वह मध्य-आय जाल में फँस जाता है। चीन आज उसी स्थिति के करीब है। उसकी कभी अव्वल निर्यात अर्थव्यवस्था अब जनसंख्या वृद्धावस्था, बढ़ता कर्ज, पर्यावरणीय दबाव, और अंतरराष्ट्रीय व्यापार टकरावों से जूझ रही है।

फिर भी, चीन की विशाल घरेलू बाज़ार, तकनीकी प्रगति और सरकारी क्षमताएं उसे इस जाल से बाहर निकलने का मौका देती हैं—यदि वह साहसी कदम उठाए।

I. आर्थिक सुधार: अनुकरण से नवाचार की ओर

1. विकास मॉडल का पुनर्गठन

अब भारी निवेश और बुनियादी ढांचे पर निर्भरता से आगे बढ़ना होगा।

घरेलू खपत बढ़ाएं — सामाजिक सुरक्षा, पेंशन सुधार और ग्रामीण भूमि अधिकारों में सुधार करें ताकि लोग अधिक खर्च करें।
राज्य के स्वामित्व वाले उद्यमों (SOEs) की भूमिका सीमित करें और निजी क्षेत्रों में पूंजी प्रवाह बढ़ाएं।
वित्तीय बाज़ार खोलें ताकि पूंजी का कुशल वितरण हो और छाया बैंकिंग पर निर्भरता घटे।

2. उच्च स्तरीय नवाचार को गति दें

मूलभूत अनुसंधान में निवेश करें, केवल तात्कालिक तकनीकी उपयोग पर नहीं।
स्टार्टअप और उद्यमशीलता को बढ़ावा दें, केवल बीजिंग या शंघाई तक सीमित न रहे।
बौद्धिक संपदा अधिकारों की रक्षा करें ताकि निवेशक और आविष्कारक आत्मविश्वास से काम करें।

3. हरित औद्योगिक नीति के माध्यम से ऊर्जा संक्रमण

कोयले पर निर्भरता खत्म करें, विशेषकर पुराने और अक्षम संयंत्रों को बंद करके।
उद्योग और परिवहन को विद्युतीकृत करें, जैसे ग्रीन हाइड्रोजन और इलेक्ट्रिक वाहनों के ज़रिए।
स्मार्ट ग्रिड बनाएं जो नवीकरणीय ऊर्जा के उतार-चढ़ाव को संभाल सके।

II. राजनीतिक सुधार: नियंत्रण से क्षमता की ओर

चीन को पश्चिमी लोकतंत्र की नकल नहीं करनी, लेकिन लचीले, जवाबदेह और अनुकूलनशील शासन की ज़रूरत है।

1. स्थानीय सरकारों को सशक्त बनाएं

नीति प्रयोग के लिए क्षेत्रीय स्वायत्तता दें—1980 के दशक की तरह शेनझेन मॉडल को दोहराएं।
प्रशासनिक प्रदर्शन के पैमाने बदलें — केवल GDP नहीं, बल्कि नवाचार, उत्सर्जन में कमी और सामाजिक न्याय को भी मापा जाए।

2. कानून का शासन और पारदर्शिता मजबूत करें

नियम स्पष्ट और स्थिर हों, ताकि निवेशकों को भरोसा हो।
न्यायपालिका को स्वतंत्र बनाएं, ताकि अनुबंधों और संपत्ति अधिकारों की रक्षा हो सके।

3. राजनीतिक फीडबैक तंत्र को सुधारें

नागरिक समाज को सीमित लेकिन प्रभावी स्थान दें, विशेषकर पर्यावरण और उपभोक्ता अधिकार जैसे क्षेत्रों में।
थिंक टैंक और स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करें, ताकि नीतियों की आलोचना/समीक्षा हो सके।

III. जनसांख्यिकीय और सामाजिक सुधार: मानव पूंजी ही भविष्य है

चीन की जनसंख्या घट रही है। अब सस्ती श्रमशक्ति नहीं, बल्कि मानव पूंजी से उत्पादकता बढ़ानी होगी।

1. हुकौ प्रणाली को समाप्त करें

यह प्रणाली शहरीकरण और श्रमिक गतिशीलता पर रोक लगाती है। इसे सुधारना आवश्यक है।

2. शिक्षा की गुणवत्ता और पहुंच में सुधार

व्यावसायिक प्रशिक्षण और STEM शिक्षा को बढ़ावा दें।
ग्रामीण और शहरी क्षेत्रों में समान शैक्षिक अवसर सुनिश्चित करें।

3. स्वास्थ्य और पेंशन सुधार

बुजुर्ग आबादी को सुरक्षा दें ताकि घरेलू बचत दर कम हो और उपभोग बढ़े।

IV. भू-राजनीतिक रणनीति: वैश्विक संबंधों का पुनर्संतुलन

घरेलू आत्मनिर्भरता पर पूरी तरह निर्भर न हों; वैश्विक साझेदारियों को भी महत्व दें।
RMB (युआन) के अंतरराष्ट्रीयकरण को सावधानी से करें, पूंजी पलायन से बचते हुए।
हरित मानकों में नेतृत्व करें, जैसे कार्बन टैक्स, ESG नीति और स्वच्छ प्रौद्योगिकियों का निर्यात।

V. क्या स्वच्छ ऊर्जा से दोहरे अंकों की वृद्धि फिर संभव है?

हां, लेकिन केवल तब जब विकास गुणात्मक हो, मात्रात्मक नहीं।

यदि चीन:

कार्बन-तटस्थ शहर बनाता है,
स्वच्छ ऊर्जा का घरेलू उपयोग करता है, और
हरित तकनीकी नवाचार में वैश्विक नेता बनता है,

तो वह फिर से तेज़ी से विकास कर सकता है — और यह विकास स्थायी और पर्यावरण के अनुकूल होगा।

निष्कर्ष: हरित छलांग की ओर

चीन अब सिर्फ इस्पात और सीमेंट से आगे नहीं बढ़ सकता। उसका भविष्य सिलिकॉन और सूर्य की रोशनी पर आधारित है। मध्य-आय जाल से बचने का अर्थ केवल मंदी से बचाव नहीं, बल्कि एक नई आर्थिक कल्पना है।

साहसी राजनीतिक इच्छाशक्ति, बाज़ार सुधार, हरित औद्योगिक रणनीति, और जनता में निवेश—यही उसका मार्ग है।

दुनिया देख रही है। अब ड्रैगन को हरित पंखों से उड़ान भरनी होगी। 🐉⚡🌱

AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism https://t.co/OFT21hoLmW
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 6, 2025

The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism https://t.co/sv9xIB8J74
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 6, 2025

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🚀 क्या दोबारा दोहरे अंकों की वृद्धि संभव है?
हाँ, अगर यह हरित विकास पर आधारित हो:
हरित नौकरियाँ

स्मार्ट शहर

क्लीनटेक निर्यात

वैश्विक ESG नेतृत्व
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 6, 2025

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अगर आपको यह थ्रेड उपयोगी लगी हो तो शेयर करें, RT करें और चर्चा को आगे बढ़ाएं।
आपका क्या मानना है—क्या चीन यह छलांग लगा सकता है?
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— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 6, 2025

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China’s growth has slowed. Costs are up, population is aging, the old model is exhausted. To rise again, China needs a new leap—a Green Leap Forward.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 6, 2025