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Commentary: Trump isn't 'winning' his trade wars Trump is shackling the US economy and threatening his own political future. His tariffs will inevitably weaken the economy and rattle voters who are already losing faith in Trump's ability to safeguard their prosperity. ....... Trump's supposed "wins" of late include trade deals with South Korea, Japan, Indonesia, and the European Union. Still in the works are deals with Canada, Mexico, and China, the top three US trading partners. Most of the deals announced so far lack specifics and may be more like frameworks for deals that will take months to hammer out. .......... The tariffs are cutting into profits at Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Procter & Gamble (PG), and many other American companies, including some that say they'll have to pass the higher costs on to consumers through higher prices. Shoppers will face renewed inflationary pressures and a slowdown in hiring likely to come from slower growth. .......... Trump tariff defenders argue that economists have been wrong about inflation because it hasn't shown up yet. But that is probably just a matter of timing. Producers and merchants stocked up on imports during the first quarter, knowing the Trump tariffs were coming. They bought a lot less in the second quarter, when many new tariffs were in effect. That is only now beginning to show up in everyday prices. But the early signs show inflation picking up exactly where you'd expect import tariffs to hit. ......... Inflation data for June showed unusual month-to-month increases in the cost of appliances, toys, clothing, and sporting goods. Imports dominate those product sectors, so if you were looking for tariff-related inflation, that's where you'd find it. "Tariffs [are] beginning to rear their ugly head," Oxford Economics explained in a July 15 analysis. "Tariff impacts on the economy are still in the pipeline." ........... The Yale Budget Lab expects higher tariffs to cost the typical household about $2,100 per year, once importers, suppliers, and consumers have adjusted to higher prices by shifting their business strategies and buying habits. .......... If the government forced every family in the US to cough up an extra $2,100 per year, there would be national outrage and maybe revolt. The tariffs won't work like that. Part of the cost to families will be gradually rising prices, some noticeable, others not. Economists generally think the tariffs will push the annual inflation rate from 2.7% now to the high threes or maybe 4%. It's already up from a low of 2.3% in April. But 4% isn't nearly as painful as the 9% inflation from 2022. ......... Other parts of the cost to families will come from slower economic growth, which in turn will mean lower pay than some workers would otherwise earn and slightly higher unemployment. Tariffs are inefficient, introducing new costs and barriers to trade. That hurts growth. .......... Trump wants Congress to pass legislation to send "tariff rebates" of $600 or more to most taxpayers, drawing the funds from new tariff revenue the Treasury is collecting. Thoughtful voters might ask why Trump is imposing new taxes on one hand, then offering relief from those taxes through a rebate. Wouldn't it be better to do nothing in the first place? ............. Trump's approval rating for his handling of the economy dropped from 42% in February to 37% in July ........ His overall approval rating dropped from 47% when he took office to 37%. ......... Voters chose Trump in the 2024 presidential race in large part because they wanted him to bring prices down and create more opportunity than they experienced during the Biden years. Trump, so far, is doing the opposite. ........ Consumer confidence has mostly fallen since Trump took office, with the University of Michigan sentiment index nearly as low as it was at the moment of peak inflation in 2022. ........ If Trump is winning, then it's ordinary Americans he's winning against.
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Economy is getting worse under Trump’s leadership, Americans say in new poll on eve of his tariff D-Day the president’s tariff agenda is one of the biggest anchors driving down his approval numbers. ........ On the core issue of tariffs, Trump is clearly tanking — despite months of pronouncements from the White House of America’s impending “Golden Age.” ....... Four in ten Americans say that Trump’s tariffs will make the country poorer and stifle economic growth. Just 26 percent believe the White House’s line about economic prosperity coming down the pike. ............ And most alarmingly for the White House, inflation still ranks as the No. 1 issue for voters. That could prove to be dangerous ground for the president as the summer concludes with potentially sharp increases to consumer prices stemming from the president’s reciprocal tariffs. ............ Six in 10 of voters under 30 now say that Trump’s policies are harming the economy, and making them worse off financially. Seven in 10 voters in the same category say that they didn’t believe the president is focused enough on lowering prices for consumers. ........... If Trump is losing ground with the younger voters he peeled off from Democrats in 2024, Republicans are set for trouble in the midterm elections next year. Polling isn’t yet registering significant voter support for the GOP budget reconciliation package, the “big, beautiful bill”, as it’s been overshadowed by the president’s tariffs and mass deportation agenda, among other issues. ......... Another factor driving down Trump’s numbers with younger voters is Jeffrey Epstein. .......... The sudden declaration that the “Epstein Client List”, which Vice President JD Vance and others in the administration pledged to release, supposedly did not exist at all erupted into a wildfire on the MAGA right, particularly among Trump’s younger supporters. .......... more than four in ten, think that Trump and his team have partially or completely lied in their public statements regarding the case. Less than 20 percent of Americans believe them. ............. Immigration has been another issue where the president has lost ground as the White House and Department of Homeland Security have accelerated mass deportation programs under his second term. Images of immigration enforcement raids have caused massive protests in Los Angeles and alarmed many Americans including Trump-supporting independents around the country. ............ Nearly every poll on the Decision Desk HQ Average, with the exception of two surveys conducted by Republican outfits, now shows Trump with popularity ratings in the negative, some by double digits.
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Trump’s new tariffs have no precedent in the modern era In just six months, President Donald Trump has remade global trade and upended a century of precedent. ........ Trump on Thursday announced higher tariffs — again — on just about every country in the world. Even as some countries’ tariff rates came in lower than they had feared, practically all goods coming in to the United States face a significantly higher tax than when Trump took office in January. ........... The new trade regime will put in place the highest tariffs America has imposed since 1933, during the Smoot-Hawley era — a tariff bill that contributed to the deepening of the Great Depression. ....... there’s already some evidence Trump’s tariffs are — slowly — reigniting inflation and slowing the US economy. ......... That danger is why leaders of developed countries for decades have largely lowered tariff rates and welcomed globalization — actions that have fueled the services economy backed by Big Tech and finance, but have also contributed to the offshoring of factories and manufacturing jobs. ......... Last year, imports to the United States faced an effective tariff rate of 1.2%, a low tax that has fallen over the course of many decades. Declining tariffs in part persuaded US companies to make their products in foreign countries where labor costs were cheaper — and then ship those goods back into the United States while facing a relatively minuscule tax penalty for doing so. ......... Apple on Thursday said it paid $800 million in tariffs last quarter and expects to pay $1.1 billion this quarter. Automakers, including GM, Stellantis and Volkswagen, also reported tariff costs of over $1 billion over the past quarter. ........ Many major retailers, including Walmart and Target, have said recently they wouldn’t be able to absorb all the tariff costs and would raise prices for their customers.
............... Despite some negative reaction on Wall Street Friday, stocks remain near record highs. US gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy, bounced back sharply in the second quarter by some measures. The labor market has remained resilient, and inflation is still reasonably close to normal levels. ............ Tariffs have worked in many of those regards: The Treasury Department reports about $150 billion in tariff revenue since Trump took office, up considerably from previous years. Numerous American manufacturers have announced major commitments to build new factories in the United States. Trump has used the threat of tariffs to impose his will on multiple countries to negotiate everything from peace deals to lower taxes. And America’s trade gap briefly narrowed earlier this year. ............ Tariff revenue is paid in the form of a tax on US importers, not foreign countries as Trump routinely claims. Many of the companies’ factory announcements were already in the works or are years away from taking place, and — considering America has about 400,000 open manufacturing jobs it can’t fill — it’s not clear where the labor force for those factories will come from. Trump’s tariff threats don’t always work and sometimes penalize US consumers, who have to pay higher prices as a result. And the trade gap, after countries worked through their pre-tariff inventories, is widening again. ....... economists continue to fear a delayed shock reaction that could damage the global economy and take America’s standing in the world down a peg.
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