Arab Democracy: What The US Needs To Do: Stay Deeply Engaged

Image via WikipediaThe US is uniquely positioned to conclude the War On Terror in 2011. The Cold War lasted decades. If we play our cards right, the War On Terror will have only lasted a decade. And Barack Obama might qualify for yet another Nobel Peace Prize.

The way the War On Terror concludes is when every Arab country has been turned into a modern democracy. The roadmap is simple. People come out into the streets and shut the country down completely until the dictator vacates the seat of power. They don't have to leave the country. They just have to vacate the seat of power without engaging in any bloodshed. Then an interim government takes over. That cabinet has one year to hold elections to a constituent assembly. And that's it.

Where the US federal government comes in is there is no other entity that has the option to stay deeply engaged with all levels of the state apparatus in these countries. The idea is to stay neutral politically in the beginning, but make sure there is no bloodshed. And then once the streets have boiled over and achieved tipping point, you call for the dictator's ouster in no unclear terms. You don't incite the street protests. You don't help escalate it. But once they hit that tipping point, you stand on the side of democracy. The clearer stand you take, less bloodshed there will be, and smoother the transitions will be in those countries.

This is not the time to stay neutral. Revolution is not a spectator sport, not for those braving the streets, not for the President Of The United States, not for the Vice President Of The United States, not for the US Secretary Of State.

This momentum that took centuries to build can not be wasted. This is our opportunity to turn the tables across the Arab world. If the sexism in the Arab world has been bothering you, now is the time to act. A country that becomes a democracy starts taking steps to curb all that sexism.

Egypt: The Army May Not Take Over
Arab Dictators Are Shaking
Egypt: A Revolution, Not A Reform Movement
How Many People Could Mubarak Kill?
Arab Dictators Will Fall Like A House Of Cards

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Egypt: The Army May Not Take Over

Image via WikipediaMubarak might try to do that. He might decide to punish the people of Egypt by leaving but then handing over the reins to the top generals in the Egyptian army. That might be his way of saying if you think I was bad, how about this?

Mubarak does not have that option. The people of Egypt are not asking for a military dictatorship. That is what they have had for decades. They are in the streets asking for its end, not rejuvenation.

The mightiest army in the world is powerless in the face of a people who have woken up. And the people of Egypt have woken up.

This is how this drama ends. Mubarak leaves. He does not have to leave the country. He just vacates the seat of power. The constitution is amended to get rid of all anti human rights clauses and to make room for an interim government. An interim president - a civilian democrat like that dude who won the Nobel Prize - comes in with an interim cabinet. That interim cabinet brings in an interim constitution within six months and elections to a constituent assembly are held within a year of taking power. At that point the interim cabinet hands over power to that assembly.

That is the roadmap. The fuck with the military.

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Arab Dictators Are Shaking
Egypt: A Revolution, Not A Reform Movement
How Many People Could Mubarak Kill?
Arab Dictators Will Fall Like A House Of Cards

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Arab Dictators Are Shaking

Image via WikipediaEgypt: A Revolution, Not A Reform Movement
How Many People Could Mubarak Kill?
Arab Dictators Will Fall Like A House Of Cards

New York Times: Allies Press U.S. to Go Slow on Egypt: Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates have each repeatedly pressed the United States not to cut loose Egypt’s president, Hosni Mubarak, too hastily, or to throw its weight behind the democracy movement in a way that could further destabilize the region ..... One Middle Eastern envoy said that on a single day, he spent 12 hours on the phone with American officials. ..... There is evidence that the pressure has paid off. On Saturday, just days after suggesting that it wanted immediate change, the administration said it would support an “orderly transition” managed by Vice President Omar Suleiman. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said that Mr. Mubarak’s immediate resignation might complicate, rather than clear, Egypt’s path to democracy, given the requirements of Egypt’s Constitution..... “Everyone is taking a little breath,” said a diplomat from the region ..... “There’s a sense that we’re getting our message through.” .... a sudden, chaotic change in Egypt would destabilize the region or, in the Arab nations, even jeopardize their own leaders, many of whom are also autocrats facing restive populations..... She said that she had spoken to King Abdullah II of Jordan and that President Obama had made calls to other leaders. ...... Administration officials said the tense mood in many of these countries had eased in recent days, as the United States has embraced a transition process in Egypt that does not demand Mr. Mubarak’s immediate departure...... Israeli officials, who have long viewed Mr. Mubarak and Mr. Suleiman
Image via Wikipedia as stabilizing influences in a dangerous region, have made clear to the administration that they support evolution rather than revolution in Egypt. They believe it is important to make changes within the system rather than change the system first and hope stability can be maintained.... he has been the Israeli government’s preferred successor to Mr. Mubarak for several years...... Speaking to Mr. Obama on Sunday, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed of Abu Dhabi, the Emirates’ defense chief, emphasized the need for “stability” in Egypt ..... The crown prince “also stressed the necessity that the period of transition in Egypt should be smooth and organized through the framework of national institutions” ..... Obama also spoke last week with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia..... The Arab leaders all had the same message for the United States, several Arab officials said. They thought Mr. Obama went too far last Tuesday when he said that Mr. Mubarak needed to begin the transition in Egypt “now” — followed a day later by Mr. Gibbs’s declaration that “now means yesterday.” ..... One Arab diplomat likened the democracy movement to a train fueled by university students and human rights advocates..... “Eventually, those students will have to get off that train and go back to school, and the human rights people will have to go back to work, and you know who will be on the train when it finally rolls into the station?” the diplomat asked. “The Muslim Brotherhood.”
Image via Wikipedia

Hillary is not getting it. Mubarak goes. The constitution goes. What comes into place is an interim government and an interim constitution.

America should not feel like it has the option to betray the Arab peoples currently not represented by the governments in place. Washington has been in talks with a whole bunch of illegitimate regimes.

The king of Nepal also tried to scare people by saying if you oust me, you get the Maoists. What these people are saying is if you oust Mubarak, Bin Laden will come into power. Autocrats will use any logic to stay in power.

Hillary needs to stop talking reform b.s. in the face of revolutions. Lead, follow, or get out of the way.

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