The Magic Six

It is heartening that three of the six are women.

Six regional parties could decide next PM,says Sharad Pawar

Pawar identified the Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Biju Janata Dal, Janata Dal (United) and the AIADMK as the kingmakers in 2014 ...... Mamata, Naveen, Mulayam Singh, Mayawati, Nitish and Jayalalithaa .... On Modi, Pawar said: “You see, my observation in Indian politics is that if anyone tries to project himself too early, he invites trouble and I think BJP and Narendra Modi have started their projection too early and with a definite position. I don'’t know what will happen. My experience, my previous observation, is not very good."

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Modi Wave?

English: Nitish Kumar (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

“India is a geographical term. It is no more a united nation than the equator.”
- Winston Churchill

Mamata was the Congress' largest ally, and she quit that alliance and is strongly anti-Congress, and anti-BJP today. Nitish was the BJP's largest ally, and he quit that alliance and is strongly anti-BJP and anti-Congress today. And if the states are like independent countries, the non-Congress, non-BJP parties stand the strongest chance today. My back envelope arithmetic is putting Nitish at the top. He is the best performing politician in India and deserves it.

Why waves don’t matter

Do national narratives or waves play an important role in determining voter preferences across states? Not really, as this analysis shows. Using the definition of a national wave as “a nationwide sentiment that can work either for or against one national party”, historical electoral data analysis reveals that waves are not probably worth squabbling over. The impact of national sentiment on vote- and seat-share has declined significantly over the last four decades as voting preferences get more local and state-specific. This analysis shows India’s national elections may not be national in its true sense but merely a series of state elections held simultaneously to elect a Central government.

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