Thursday, December 08, 2016

The Indian Trinity In America





Tuesday, December 06, 2016

Done Right Demonetisation Will Prove Early Election

If the execution of the decision goes well it will be like Modi won the 2019 election before it was even held, with his opponents like Mamata and Kejri utterly vanquished.

It has been a big, bold move. It had to be done at some point if the Indian rupee was ever going to become a credible global currency, like the dollar, euro, yen.

12 lakh crores have been deposited into the banks. That is massive.

Gold is another major drag. And it is cultural. That is so much capital sucked out of the economy.

As for the anti corruption drive I am sure Modi knows this can only be the first step. Benaami property has to be one of his New Year resolutions.

T N Sheshan cleaned up elections in India. Modi is out to show corruption can be controlled across India.

Anti corruption moves are indispensable to robust economic growth rates. Done right this will catapult India to double digit growth rates early next decade.

The biggest concern of course is the cash crunch. I have noticed Ambani is giving three months free on his new data network. There ought to be a massive push for digital money. They do it in Kenya. It is called mPesa.

America should similarly recall the 100 dollar bill to empty the wallets of the druglords around the world.

Modi's Demonetisation: Differing Opinions

India's demonetisation: 'Modi didn't think of the poor' 

In a strong editorial, the Economist said Modi's "perceived need for secrecy (to take cash-hoarders by surprise) fed into the innate sense he has of his own infallibility and his misplaced faith in his technocratic skills."

Kaushik Basu, a former chief economist at the World Bank, said in an op-ed in the New York Times that demonetisation was likely to cause the economy to nosedive. "Demonetization may have been well-intentioned, but it was a major mistake," Basu wrote. "The government should reverse it."

Assessing the impact of demonetisation four weeks later, TN Ninan, the editor of the Business Standard, wrote that Modi's move "at this stage looks like a bad idea, badly executed on the basis of some half-baked notions."

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Sparrows?

This isn’t the first time a charismatic nationalist has used a simple, good-vs.-evil narrative to push a radical economic measure. In 1958, China’s Mao Zedong called upon millions of citizens to wipe out the country’s rats, sparrows, mosquitoes and flies to fight disease and prevent crop losses. And like Mao’s campaign, which engendered a plague of locusts by wiping out the sparrows that ate them, Modi’s strike against corruption has led to some unexpected and painful consequences.

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Demonetisation Is Step One

Modi hints at more fierce war on black money even as BJP unanimously backs note ban

Larry Summers On Modi’s Demonetisation


Without new measures to combat corruption, we doubt that this currency reform will have lasting benefits.  Corruption will continue albeit with slightly different arrangements.

It's A Long, Deep, Constant Fight Against Corruption: Modi

The Kushner Factor


Just as Trump’s unorthodox style allowed him to win the Republican nomination while spending far less than his more traditional opponents, Kushner’s lack of political experience became an advantage. Unschooled in traditional campaigning, he was able to look at the business of politics the way so many Silicon Valley entrepreneurs have sized up other bloated industries.

Jared understood the online world in a way the traditional media folks didn’t. He managed to assemble a presidential campaign on a shoestring using new technology and won. That’s a big deal,” says Schmidt, the Google billionaire. “Remember all those articles about how they had no money, no people, organizational structure? Well, they won, and Jared ran it.”

There’s some aspects of the Democrat Party that didn’t speak to me, and there are some aspects of the Republican Party that didn’t speak to me. People in the political world try to put you into different buckets based on what exists. I think Trump’s creating his own bucket–a blend of what works and eliminating what doesn’t work.”

The Two Party System Continues

America is a two party democracy, and it continues. The Republican Party is not dead, although a major act of creative destruction might have happened. The Democratic Party is now a municipal party, but such total defeat is also the best place to be from where to mount a strong comebck.

NATO is too expensive. That is the electoral verdict. The unfinished business of ending the Cold War once and for all perhaps now will be finished. Architecting a normal relationship with Russia might be at hand.

Trump's ascent might be a challenge to the solar entrepreneurs who now have to make sure dirty energy gets priced out completely. 

Monday, November 21, 2016

Demonetisation

Demonetisation result of power concentration in one man: Rahul Gandhi

Change PM, not notes: Arvind Kejriwal on demonetisation

Enemies couldn't have hurt rural India as demonetisation: Sitaram Yechury

Mamata Banerjee: Note ban hit lower class, traders, women the most

Opposing demonetisation against country's interest: Devendra Fadnavis

Demonetisation:Queues get shorter at banks; no respite at ATMs

Demonetisation has hit those seeking money for poll tickets: Modi

Anxiety due to cash crunch takes ministers to shrinks

Congress running away from discussion on demonetisation: Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi

Senior bureaucrats to visit states to assess demonetisation drive

Demonetisation: Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal threaten intense protest

Demonetisation: Currency recall issue creates storm in Parliament

Demonetisation: Regulations changing faster than notes; banks stumped

Demonetisation move poorly executed: Ajay Maken

Demonetisation: A painful shift in rural economy, but all could be well by January.

Demonetisation will not address the problem of black money, say social activists.

Demonetisation: Banks get about Rs 5.44 lakh crore worth of old Rs 500/1000 notes.

Demonetisation: More important to address deeper problems in war against black money

Demonetisation seems like deflation for many people; danger signal for PM Modi

Demonetisation a 'bold move' to curb shadow economy: Bill Gates

Demonetisation: Modi should have gone after 8 lakh wealthy 'farmers', not common man

Rs 500, Rs 1,000 ban: Reaction to Modi's demonetisation move shows how it has upset upcoming elections

Warren Ascendant


In the days since Hillary Clinton’s stunning electoral defeat to Donald Trump, the vacuum she left atop the Democratic Party hasn’t gone unfilled.

Elizabeth Warren has moved aggressively to occupy the space, a timely reminder to the party and its most ambitious members that all roads to 2020 — not to mention 2018 — go through her.

 a detailed 8-page note on Tuesday, addressed to Trump himself, that ripped into him for appointing Wall Street officials and lobbyists to his transition team despite his promises to cleave such insiders’ influence.

“If you truly stand by your commitment to making government work for all Americans — not just those with armies of lobbyists on payroll — you must remove the lobbyists and financial bigwigs from your transition team and reinstate a group of advisors who will fight for the interests of all Americans,” Warren wrote. “Maintaining a transition team of Washington insiders sends a clear signal to all who are watching you — that you are already breaking your campaign promises to ‘drain the swamp’ and that you are selling out the American public.”

Warren’s team posted the missive on her Facebook page, and it was viewed over 10 million times in the ensuing two days.