Tit-for-Tat Scenarios and De-escalation Roadmap for Operation Sindoor Using Game Theory
As of May 7, 2025, tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated significantly, primarily due to the April 22, 2025, Pahalgam attack in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, where 26 people, mostly Hindu tourists, were killed. The Resistance Front (TRF), allegedly linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, initially claimed responsibility but later retracted. India accuses Pakistan of sponsoring the attack, which Pakistan denies, leading to a severe diplomatic and military crisis.
Key Developments:
Military Escalation: On May 7, India launched "Operation Sindoor," conducting missile and air strikes on nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, targeting alleged terrorist infrastructure. Pakistan reported 31 deaths, including civilians, and claimed to have shot down five Indian jets. Both sides have exchanged artillery fire and small arms along the Line of Control (LoC), with skirmishes ongoing since April 24. Pakistan test-fired a ballistic missile (Abdali Weapon System) on May 3, signaling military readiness.
Diplomatic Fallout: India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty on April 23, closed borders, expelled Pakistani diplomats, and revoked visas. Pakistan reciprocated by suspending the Simla Agreement, closing airspace, halting trade, and expelling Indian diplomats. The Kartarpur Corridor remains open for Sikh pilgrims.
Water Dispute: India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty led to reports of flooding in Pakistan’s Muzaffarabad due to unnotified water releases from India’s Uri Dam and reduced water levels in the Chenab River. Pakistan considers water diversion an "act of war" and is pursuing legal action via international forums.
International Response: The UN, US, China, Russia, Iran, and the UK have urged restraint and de-escalation. The US, through Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has pushed for dialogue, while Iran offered mediation. However, the US has taken a relatively hands-off approach compared to past crises.
Domestic Impact: In Pakistan-administered Kashmir, over 1,000 religious schools closed, and residents are preparing bunkers fearing Indian strikes. In India, security operations in Kashmir have intensified, with tourist sites closed and a manhunt for perpetrators ongoing.
Current Sentiment and Risks:
The situation is described as the most serious crisis since 2019, with both nations flexing nuclear capabilities, raising global concerns about escalation. Posts on X reflect heightened rhetoric, with some Indian sources framing the conflict as psychological warfare and Pakistani sources condemning Indian aggression.
Analysts note that while nuclear deterrence may prevent all-out war, the suspension of key agreements (Indus Waters Treaty, Simla Agreement) and ongoing skirmishes increase the risk of miscalculation. The lack of direct dialogue and limited international mediation further complicates de-escalation.
Critical Note: Information from social media posts and some sources may be inconclusive or biased. The situation is fluid, and both sides’ claims (e.g., jet downings, civilian casualties) lack independent verification. Always cross-check with primary sources for accuracy.
Likely Pakistani Response
Given the current escalation and Pakistan's historical responses to Indian military actions, the most likely Pakistani response to India's "Operation Sindoor" (missile and air strikes on May 7, 2025) would be a combination of retaliatory military actions, diplomatic maneuvers, and domestic mobilization, carefully calibrated to avoid all-out war due to nuclear deterrence. Below is an analysis of the probable response:
1. Military Response
Counterstrikes Along the LoC: Pakistan is likely to intensify artillery shelling and small arms fire along the Line of Control (LoC), targeting Indian military posts or infrastructure. This aligns with ongoing skirmishes since April 24 and Pakistan’s claim of retaliating to Indian strikes.
Air and Missile Demonstrations: Pakistan may conduct limited airstrikes or missile launches targeting Indian military assets in Jammu and Kashmir, similar to its response during the 2019 Balakot crisis when it struck near Indian positions. The recent test-firing of the Abdali ballistic missile (May 3) suggests readiness to showcase missile capabilities as a deterrent.
Asymmetric Warfare: Pakistan could increase support for non-state actors or proxies to conduct low-intensity attacks in Indian-administered Kashmir, though it would publicly deny involvement to avoid international backlash.
Defensive Posturing: Pakistan’s military is likely to bolster air defenses and troop deployments along the border, preparing for potential Indian follow-up strikes. Claims of downing five Indian jets (unverified) indicate an emphasis on projecting air defense strength.
Likelihood: High. Pakistan’s military doctrine emphasizes swift retaliation to restore deterrence and national pride, but it will likely avoid deep incursions to prevent escalation to conventional war.
2. Diplomatic and Legal Actions
International Forums: Pakistan is already pursuing legal action over India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and will likely escalate complaints to the UN, World Bank, or International Court of Justice, framing India’s actions (strikes and water diversion) as violations of international law.
Allied Support: Pakistan will seek diplomatic backing from allies like China, Turkey, and Iran. China, a key partner, may provide economic or military support, while Iran’s mediation offer could be leveraged to isolate India diplomatically.
Propaganda Campaign: Pakistan will amplify narratives of Indian aggression and civilian casualties (e.g., 31 deaths reported from Indian strikes) through media and X platforms to garner global sympathy and pressure India.
Likelihood: Very high. Pakistan has historically used multilateral platforms and alliances to counter India’s narrative, especially during crises.
3. Domestic Mobilization
Rallying Public Support: Pakistan’s government and military will likely stoke nationalist sentiment to unify the public, framing India’s strikes as an attack on sovereignty. This could involve media campaigns, public rallies, or statements from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military leaders.
Security Measures: Increased security in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and border regions, including school closures and civilian bunker preparations, will continue. The military may also conduct drills to signal readiness.
Economic and Social Stabilization: To counter economic strain from closed borders and trade halts, Pakistan may announce relief measures or seek aid from allies to mitigate domestic unrest.
Likelihood: High. Domestic unity and resilience are critical for Pakistan to maintain internal stability during external conflicts.
4. Avoidance of Nuclear Escalation
Despite nuclear rhetoric (e.g., missile tests), Pakistan is unlikely to signal explicit nuclear escalation, as both nations recognize the catastrophic consequences. Instead, it will rely on conventional and subconventional responses to maintain credible deterrence without crossing the nuclear threshold.
Likelihood: Very high. Nuclear posturing is more about signaling than intent, given the mutual deterrence framework.
Most Likely Scenario
Pakistan’s response will likely be a measured tit-for-tat military action (e.g., targeted strikes along the LoC or in Indian-administered Kashmir) coupled with a robust diplomatic offensive to isolate India and highlight civilian impacts. This mirrors its 2019 response to India’s Balakot airstrike, where Pakistan conducted limited airstrikes, downed an Indian jet, and released the captured pilot to de-escalate while saving face. The focus will be on restoring deterrence, rallying domestic support, and leveraging allies like China to counter India’s narrative, all while avoiding actions that risk full-scale war.
Risks and Variables
Miscalculation: Unverified claims (e.g., jets downed, civilian deaths) or accidental strikes on sensitive targets could escalate the conflict unintentionally.
Domestic Pressure: Public outrage in Pakistan over civilian casualties may push the government toward a harder line, complicating de-escalation.
International Mediation: The extent of US, Chinese, or Iranian involvement could shape Pakistan’s response. A lack of mediation may prolong the crisis.
Note: The situation is dynamic, and Pakistan’s response depends on India’s next moves and international reactions. Information from social media posts and some sources may be speculative, so cross-verification with primary sources is essential for accuracy.
