Barackface: 14: Inflation

Thursday, August 14, 2025

14: Inflation

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Don’t write off the Putin-Trump summit just yet – its outcome might confound critics Like many such confabs before it, the Aug. 15, 2025, Alaska red carpet rollout for Russian President Vladimir Putin is classic Donald Trump: A show of diplomacy as pageantry that seemingly came out of nowhere, replete with vague goals and hardened expectations about the outcome from Trump supporters and opponents alike before the event has even taken place. .......... he has always made it clear that his priority is to restore a good relationship with Russia, rather than save Ukraine from defeat. ......... Trump’s track record of admiration for Putin, and the summit format that excludes both Ukraine and its European allies, has provided ample fodder for critics of U.S. policy under Trump. ......... Meanwhile, in Moscow, despite Trump’s vague talk of a “land swap” that implies Ukraine could regain some lost territory, the uniformly pro-government Russian press is already hailing the upcoming summit as a victory for Putin and a “a catastrophe for Kyiv”,“ as the MK newspaper declared. .........

Respected Russian émigré journalist Tatyana Stanovaya, for one, has argued that the meeting offers the "first more or less real attempt to stop the war.”

............ In June, he joined Israel’s airstrikes against Iran, Russia’s biggest ally in the Middle East. On Aug. 8, he hosted the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the White House to sign a historic peace deal – a huge diplomatic defeat for Russia, which historically has dominated the politics of the south Caucasus region. ........... Trump’s ongoing global trade war is also alarming for Russia. On Aug. 7, Trump slapped punitive new tariffs on 90 countries that failed to make deals before his deadline. Trump has shown himself willing to use American power to bully trade partners who cannot effectively retaliate — such as Brazil, Canada, Switzerland and now India. .............. Indeed, Trump noticed that India bought US$80 billion of Russian oil last year — more than China. On Aug. 6, the same day that Trump announced the Alaska meeting, he imposed 50% tariffs on India, which will not come into effect for 21 days unless India cuts back on imports of Russian crude. ........... With the Russian economy under strain and with global oil prices falling, Russia risks losing critical revenue from selling oil to India. That could conceivably be the tipping point for Putin, persuading him to halt the war. ............. India may ignore Trump’s oil sanction. Key Indian exports to the U.S., such as iPhones and pharmaceuticals, are exempt from the 50% tariff, and they account for about $20 billion of India’s $80 billion annual exports to the U.S. ............. the global oil market is highly adaptable. Russian oil not bought by India could easily be picked up by China, Turkey, Italy, Malaysia and others. Even if Russia lost $10 billion to 20 billion as a result of the India sanctions, with overall government revenue of $415 billion a year, that would not derail Moscow’s ability to wage war on Ukraine. .................. It remains unclear what Trump actually wants to achieve in Alaska. The details of the deal he is trying to persuade Putin to accept are unclear. For the Trump administration, the basic idea for ending the conflict appears to be land for peace: an end to military action by both sides and de facto recognition of the Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russian forces. ............ One glaring problem with this formulation is that Russia does not control all the territory of the four Ukrainian provinces that it claims. They occupy nearly all of Luhansk, but not all of Donetsk, and only 60% of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. If Russia insists on taking all of Donetsk province, for example, Ukraine would have to hand over about 2,500 square miles (6,500 square kilometers), with 200,000 people, mainly in the cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. ............. It is hard to imagine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreeing to such a concession. ........... Yet it is equally hard to see Putin giving up his claim to all four provinces, which were formally incorporated into the Russian Federation in October 2022. In a June 2024 speech to the Russian foreign ministry, Putin laid out his most thorough analysis of the “root causes” and course of the conflict. He stated that the legal status of the four provinces as part of Russia “is closed forever and is no longer a matter for discussion.” ..........
Both Ukrainian and Russian societies are tired of a conflict that neither of them wanted. But at the same time, in neither country does most of the public want peace at any price.
............. If Trump can persuade Putin to agree to give up his claims to the entire territory of the four provinces in Ukraine’s east, that would be a substantial concession – and one that Zelenskyy may be well-advised to pocket. Putin would also expect something in return — such as the lifting of international sanctions and restoration of full diplomatic relations with the U.S. Then Putin could fly back to Moscow and tell the Russian people that Russia has won the war. ........... given Putin’s apparent confidence that Russia is winning the war, it remains unlikely that he will be persuaded by anything that Trump has to offer in Anchorage.

MAGA’s Feelings Don’t Care About Your Facts Reality is what Trump says it is ............ Just under two weeks ago the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a sharp slowdown in job growth — consistent with independent surveys that also show a slowing economy. Donald Trump responded by firing the Bureau’s head and wants to replace her with an unqualified right-wing hack — let’s be honest, OK? — whose big idea for dealing with troubling job numbers is to stop releasing them. ..........

This week Trump seized control of the Washington DC police force and sent in the National Guard to deal with what he claims is a runaway crime wave, even though crime in the District has been falling rapidly.

............... What these two stories have in common is this: MAGA’s feelings don’t care about your facts. And the rejection of data Trump doesn’t like will surely extend to many areas beyond jobs and crime. .......... About jobs: E.J. Antoni, Trump’s pick for BLS Commissioner, has actually said that we should define a recession not on the basis of things like employment data or GDP but by how people “feel.” Now, that criterion wouldn’t serve him or his master very well if we look at surveys of public opinion. The American people appear to feel really bad about the economy: ......... Antoni is saying that we should define a recession by how Trump feels. And since he insists we’re in a boom, it’s all good. ........ About crime: If Trumpists wanted to make a semi-serious argument for occupying Washington, it would be that
while DC crime is falling, it’s still high compared with relatively low-crime cities like New York or Los Angeles.
............
the idea that the NYPD is rigging the crime data to make liberal mayors look good is simply hilarious.
............. Trump’s tariffs are already starting to show in the inflation numbers, and the vast majority of independent economists believe that we’ll be seeing a lot more of that in the months ahead. .......... My guess is that the next frontier in feelings-over-facts will involve public health. .......... New York City, which aside from being a dystopian hellscape is one of the few places in America that has life expectancy comparable to other advanced countries. ............ a lot of this has to do with New Yorkers being less likely than other Americans to die in traffic accidents. .............. we now have an anti-vaxxer, who reportedly doesn’t even accept the germ theory of infectious diseases, serving as America’s top health official. ............ around 17 million Americans will lose health insurance over the next few years. And there’s clear evidence that loss of insurance will lead to higher mortality. .............. we’re clearly entering an era of policy driven by feelings rather than facts.

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This isn’t how wars are ended − a veteran diplomat explains how Trump-Putin summit is amateurish and politically driven the unconventional meeting and why it’s likely to produce, as he says, a photograph and a statement, but not a peace deal. ........... Wars end for three reasons. One is that both sides get exhausted and decide to make peace. The second, which is more common: One side gets exhausted and raises its hand and says, “Yeah, we’re ready to come to the peace table.” ........... And then the third is – we’ve seen this happen in the Mideast – outside forces like the U.S. or Europe come in and say, “That’s enough. We’re imposing our will from the outside. You guys stop this.” ........... the role that Trump and his administration are playing right now is that third possibility, an outside power comes in and says, “Enough.” ..........

Russia is maybe a former superpower, but a power, and it’s got nuclear arms and it’s got a big army. This is not some small, Middle Eastern country that the United States can completely dominate. They’re nearly a peer.

............. we go back to 1938. Germany said, “Listen, we have all these German citizens living in this new country of Czechoslovakia. They’re not being treated right. We want them to become part of Germany.” .............. The prime minister of Great Britain, Neville Chamberlain, went and met with Hitler in Munich and came up with an agreement by which the German parts of Czechoslovakia would become part of Germany. And that would be it. That would be all that Germany would ask for, and the West gave some kind of light security guarantees. ..............
Czechoslovakia wasn’t there. This was a peace imposed on them.
............ And sure enough, you know, within a year or two, Germany was saying, “No, we want all of Czechoslovakia. And, P.S., we want Poland.” And thus World War II started. .......... compare Putin to Hitler, but he is a strongman authoritarian president with a big military. ............. Security guarantees were given to Czechoslavakia and not honored. The West gave Ukraine security guarantees when that country gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994. We told them, “If you’re going to be brave and give up your nuclear weapons, we’ll make sure you’re never invaded.” And they’ve been invaded twice since then, in 2014 and 2022. The West didn’t step up. ............. Here’s what usually happens in most countries that have a big foreign policy or national security establishment, and even in some smaller countries. ........... The political leaders come up with their policy goal, what they want to achieve. ........... And then they tell the career civil servants and foreign service officers and military people, “This is what we want to get at the negotiating table. How do we do that?” ........... And then the experts say, “Oh, we do this and we do that, and we’ll assign staff to work it out. We’ll work with our Russian counterparts and try to narrow the issues down, and we’ll come up with numbers and maps.” ............... They’ve also fired the senior level of civil servants and foreign service officers, and a lot of the mid-levels are leaving, so that expertise isn’t there. ........... That’s a real problem. The U.S. national security establishment is increasingly being run by the B team – at best. ................... It’s going to be two political leaders meeting and deciding things, often driven by political considerations, but without any real idea of whether they can really be implemented or how they could be implemented. ............ People who understand the process of diplomacy think that this is very amateurish and is unlikely to yield real results that are enforceable. It will yield some kind of statement and a photo of Trump and Putin shaking hands. There will be people who believe that this will solve the problem. It won’t.

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Thursday, August 14, 2025

14: Inflation

Respected Russian émigré journalist Tatyana Stanovaya, for one, has argued that the meeting offers the "first more or less real attempt to stop the war.”

Both Ukrainian and Russian societies are tired of a conflict that neither of them wanted. But at the same time, in neither country does most of the public want peace at any price.

This week Trump seized control of the Washington DC police force and sent in the National Guard to deal with what he claims is a runaway crime wave, even though crime in the District has been falling rapidly.

while DC crime is falling, it’s still high compared with relatively low-crime cities like New York or Los Angeles.

the idea that the NYPD is rigging the crime data to make liberal mayors look good is simply hilarious.

Russia is maybe a former superpower, but a power, and it’s got nuclear arms and it’s got a big army. This is not some small, Middle Eastern country that the United States can completely dominate. They’re nearly a peer.

Czechoslovakia wasn’t there. This was a peace imposed on them.

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