Wednesday, May 15, 2019

India 2019: May 23 Looks Mysterious

Nobody really seems to know what is going to happen. Of course, the political parties will say they will get a thumping majority. Both the BJP and the Congress are going to say that. It is in their self-interest to say that. Also, it is in the interest of the TV stations to make you feel like this is going to be a nailbiter, a really close election. It is because they want you to watch TV. If one or the other party is the clear winner, why bother following the news on TV, right? Pollsters are notoriously off the mark in India. They can't reach people they need to talk to. Those they talk to deliberately throw them off balance. Those who get polled mostly say what they think the interviewer wants to hear. In India, your average citizen is also a politician like that.

Which is kind of cool, though. You just have to wait and see what it is going to be on May 23. That works.



The predictions basically revolve around Modi, though. If he does better than last time, of course, he will get five more years. If he fares worse but still gets a majority, of course, he will get to continue. If the NDA he leads ends up in the 250 zone, about 23 less than needed, Amit Shah might be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat. He could add a few more parties to the support base. Maybe 240 is also doable. But as soon as that number dips towards 200, people start seeing a new Prime Minister. That is the sum of the predictions that I have seen.

Indian federal elections are to democracy what World Cup Soccer is to the world of sports. It is the biggest show on earth. And it is quite fascinating.

Modi's Escape Hatch: Orissa, Telangana, Tamilnadu
The Modi Suspense
India 2019: A Fractured Mandate?
My Projection Puts Modi At 300-350
Modi And Rahul
Could Arithmetic Force Modi And Rahul To Team Up?
India 2019: The Scenario Of A Federal Front Lead
Modi Expecting A Larger Victory Than 2014
India 2019: The Suspense
India 2019: Some Projections
The Indian Election: Hard To Predict
Modi Interview In Varanasi
Amit Shah: Master Strategist
Excellent Non-Political Interview Of Modi By Akshay Kumar
Modispeak
Imran Khan Could Bring Peace

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