Monday, May 04, 2020

Coronavirus News (78)



The guy screaming at these Michigan cops is Rob Cantrell, a member of the Proud Boys, a white extremist group that...

Posted by Melissa Miller on Monday, May 4, 2020


Reopening the Economy Would Add 233,000 Deaths by July but Save Millions of Jobs A new study from the Penn Wharton Budget Model balances the jobs saved from reopening the economy with the associated cost to human life. ....... THE NUMBER OF AMERICANS expected to die from the coronavirus by the end of June will nearly double White House estimates circulated as recently as this week for total deaths through the course of the entire outbreak ......... Even under a best-case scenario in terms of loss-of-life, which would mean states don't reopen at all until June 30, an estimated 117,000 people will die from the disease ......... President Donald Trump on Monday conceded that "we are probably heading to 60,000 or 70,000" total deaths for the duration of the pandemic. The lower bound of that estimate was reached before week's end. ........ Should states choose to not reopen at all prior to June 30 – a scenario that as of Friday morning is an impossibility, given high-population states such as Texas and Florida have begun reopening parts of their economies – roughly 117,000 people will still die from coronavirus by the end of June. ......... In that scenario, however, U.S. gross domestic product would end June down 11.6% over the year, and roughly 18.6 million more jobs would be lost between May 1 and June 30. Since the onset of the outbreak in mid-March, nearly 30 million Americans have filed initial unemployment claims. And even that number likely undershoots the severity of the unemployment crisis, since many Americans can't or won't file for government assistance, and many have reported facing difficulty in filing claims to backlogged state unemployment offices. .......... Under that restrictive scenario and under the most conservative estimates, nearly 1 in 3 Americans who were employed in February would have lost their jobs by the end of June if states do not start to reopen. ......... Under a less realistic scenario in which state economies fully reopened on May 1, only about 500,000 jobs would be lost between May 1 and June 30, and the size of the U.S. economy would be down roughly 10% over the year. ....... But an additional 233,000 deaths would be recorded just by the end of June, even if individuals continued practicing social distancing.

By June 30, roughly 350,000 Americans would have died from the outbreak – close to the number of Americans who died during World War II.

....... Many analysts and economists, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, have long contended that the coronavirus outbreak is a public health issue, first and foremost, and that reducing the spread of the virus will be the best and most effective way to restore the U.S. economy to its former glory. ....... Trump has repeatedly castigated Whitmer, who has contended that the White House has not done enough to help state governments and did not take the outbreak seriously enough in its early days.


Reopening states will cause 233,000 more people to die from coronavirus, according to Wharton model According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), reopening states will result in an additional 233,000 deaths from the virus — even if states don’t reopen at all and with social distancing rules in place. This means that if the states were to reopen, 350,000 people in total would die from coronavirus by the end of June, the study found. .........

That figure far surpasses estimates and models that the White House has cited from the University of Washington, which put the death toll at roughly 73,000 by the start of August.

......... Keeping stay at home orders in place would result in a growth contraction of 11.6% year over year, the data found, but opening the states would curb some of that decline somewhat, paring back the downturn to 10.1% year over year. ......... the state lockdowns will result in a more dramatic increase in unemployment, boosting the total of unemployed to nearly 50 million. A partial reopening would partly blunt that impact, but not by much.




Posted by Ray Levesque on Sunday, May 3, 2020

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