Monday, April 11, 2022

Russia Is And Will Continue To Be A Major Power

Russia is a large country and a major power. And it is not because of the nukes. Russia was a major power before the nukes. And it was not because of communism. Russia was a major power also before communism.

It has been a major intellectual super power. Look at Russian literature. Look at Lenin's books in circulation around the globe for a good part of 70 years. That was quite a run. Look at the science and technology. Look at the Russian defense industry. There are few countries better positioned for the global knowledge economy if only Russia can choose the right political system, which is a democracy.

Democracy is not rocket science. Granted each democracy is slightly unique. National traditions come into play. But either you are a democracy or you are not. It is not hard to tell.

Russia is a world power as a two trillion dollar economy, and it is a world power at a trillion, or 500 billion, or at 20 trillion.

Moscow could rival Brussels, Berlin, Paris and London if Russia were to become a fully democratic country. Democracy is not holding elections. Any dictator can do that. Demoracy is citizens having basic rights. Citizens speaking freely, and gathering to protest if they so choose.

A dictatorship falls because that is an in-built feature. Information is distored. That distorts decision making. The incentives are distorted. There is outright looting. At some point the people figure out it is their money being looted.

Post-Putin a democratic Russia will get on a path to rapid economic growth and being a major power. Not a bully the neighbors fear, but a large economy the small neighbors are eager to participate in and trade with.

Talk about soft power. Russia has a lot of it.

In fact the biggest tragedy of the Ukraine military fiasco might have been the beating Russian soft power has taken globally. People are watching. All the action might be limited to Ukraine, but this is a world war in this information age. People have been impacted all across the planet. Putin is not getting popular. It makes zero sense now for Russia to hold a veto power at the UN. Every dead body in Ukraine is a Jamal Khashoggi.

A post-Putin democratic, federal Russia at peace with its neighbors will be on its way to becoming a 10 trillion dollar economy based solely on brain power. That is the intellectual prowess of Russians. Russians are smart.

The only thing that stands between Russia and a 10 trillion dollar economy is Vladimir Putin. The man has junk brain.

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