Saturday, June 24, 2023

Putin's Breaking Point Was Always Going To Come



A dictator needs that internal tension. Saddam necessarily needed to invade Kuwait. To stay relevant inside Iraq. Inside a country the dictator is supreme. But then, by definition, he necessarily will project that outside. He has to. The facade has to be maintained. A dictatorship at its core is fundamentally dysfunctional. Russia is Nigeria with the snow, as Sergey Brin, a Russian, observed. I think the Russian people are capable of immense prosperity. But today that is not there. Putin's grip is why. Oppression leads to poverty too, among other things.

Putin wants respect. NATO expansion was a lot of Eastern European countries clamoring for it. Personally I want a NATO contraction and eventual elimination. And that is what will happen when Russia becomes a democratic country. When the security threat vanishes, security arrangements go into dystrophy.

Putin could not keep escalating the tension and expect people inside Russia to not react. Recently he moved nuclear weapons into Belarus. Nobody mistakes that for anything but what it is. I moved my troops into Belarus. I used them. I moved nuclear weapons. Why do you think that is? That is him saying his threat is credible.

What would happen if he were to use nuclear weapons? He would have to lose China and India. That trade would need to vanish. So far it is just a war. And countries in the Global South are acutely aware that when millions of refugees streamed into Poland, the non-whites were singled out and sent away. If you have nowhere to go, we will send you to Rwanda. That was racism. A lot of countries seem to think, this war is not just for liberty. Liberty and racism are opposite things. Racism is a virus. It is the same strain as fascism.

But use of nuclear weapons would change that. It is going to become morally very hard for any country to think Putin has any kind of legitimacy, any kind of currency.

There will be no victory. The US has committed itself to wiping out the Russian Black Sea Fleet should Putin use nuclear weapons.

After that Putin backs down, or unleashes the unthinkable. Armageddon.

All that logic is tic tac toe levels of intelligence. That is world leaders choosing to become chimps.

But the nuclear threat goes both ways. That is also a scenario of Moscow getting wiped out. Too many Muscovites have become used to the easy life. Russia might be Nigeria, but Moscow is Paris. There is immense inequality. Putin is Elon Musk. In fact, Musk is on record saying Putin is above his pay grade. He has more money.

Prigozhin has the same problem Putin has. Inside the Wagner group Prigozhin needs that internal tension of bravado. What Putin needs on a big scale at the national level, Prigozhin needs inside the Wagner group. Except now Prigozhin has been threatened with capture and elimination. That is a do or die situation.

A lot of Russian soldiers are now thinking, do you want certain death in a nuclea war or do you want to revolt?

Something like this was bound to happen sooner or later. Nuclear saber rattling was always going to have consequences for Putin internally.

Ukraine has not recaptured its territory. But projecting strength is already working.

But chaos inside Russia is not victory for the world. Preparations have to be made for a democratic transition. There has to be an interim government that will take the country to elections to a constituent assembly.

A lot of hardliners in the West fantasize about a breakup of Russia. They see it as an imperial setup. Russia might collapse like the Soviet Union did. That might as well happen. That might be the price Russians might have to pay for their own liberty. But maximum effort has to be made for a smooth transition when the time comes. For one, there are too many nuclear weapons inside of Russia.

Somebody other than Prigozhin might attempt to pull a coup in Moscow. Moscow stands rattled.

Putin Vows ‘Decisive Actions’ as Wagner Chief Claims Part of Key Military Complex Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner paramilitary group, entered the courtyard of Russia’s southern military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, seen in video verified by The Times. ........ Prigozhin, whose forces had claimed control of the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and were moving north toward Moscow. ........ some success by Mr. Prigozhin, who on Saturday morning said his forces had taken over the southern military headquarters of the Russian Armed Forces in the city. .......... a “counterterrorist operation regime” was declared in Moscow, giving the authorities expanded legal powers. The confrontation marked the most dramatic threat to the Russian president’s power since he took over leadership in 1999 ......... Wagner fighters had entered the Voronezh region. The region is halfway between Moscow and Rostov. .............

“We’re blockading the city of Rostov and going to Moscow,” Mr. Prigozhin says in a video that surfaced early Saturday

............. On Friday, he directly challenged the Kremlin’s position that invading Ukraine was necessary for the Russian nation, appearing to publicly push back against one of Mr. Putin’s main justifications for the war. .



Kyiv taunts Moscow over the rebellion in Russia.
Putin embraced turmoil, and now it is rattling his leadership.
Russian officials proclaim loyalty to Putin and predict victory for him.
Prigozhin’s continued Telegram posts show limits of the Kremlin’s information controls.
Russia’s pro-military activists express alarm over Wagner’s rebellion.
Prigozhin flaunts control at a critical Russian military headquarters.
Why Rostov-on-Don? It is a logistical hub for the war in Ukraine, and headquarters for a Russian military district.
A tense Europe closely monitors the developments in Russia.
Putin strikes a tough tone in his first address since the uprising started.
Prigozhin appears in videos at southern military headquarters.



Putin embraced turmoil, and now it is rattling his leadership. For more than two decades, the system helped President Vladimir V. Putin secure his unrivaled authority, ensuring that he personally held the keys to wealth and influence in modern Russia. ....... President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia always seemed to thrive on chaos. Now it threatens to consume him. ......... a trademark of Mr. Putin’s rule: a management style in which he appeared comfortable with conflicts among the elite because they kept potential rivals in check, while underscoring that ultimate authority always rested with the president himself. ......... a striking consequence of the informal power structure that Mr. Putin built up in his 23 years at Russia’s helm. For more than two decades, the system helped Mr. Putin secure his unrivaled authority, ensuring that he personally held the keys to wealth and influence in modern Russia. ........ Putin’s approach to his rule was always “divide and conquer.” As another put it, referring to Russia’s rival law enforcement authorities: “You never know who will arrest you.” ............ A judo sparring partner from Mr. Putin’s youth became a construction billionaire and built Mr. Putin’s landmark bridge to Crimea. Buddies from Mr. Putin’s K.G.B. days now oversee Russia’s military industrial complex and its oil sector. A friend from 1990s St. Petersburg is entrusted with control of Russia’s most important private media assets and of the bank said to be at the nexus of Mr. Putin’s own financial dealings. .......... And then there was Mr. Prigozhin, who met Mr. Putin more than 20 years ago as a St. Petersburg restaurateur. He parlayed those personal ties into lucrative government contracts and styled himself as a ruthless, multipurpose problem solver on the Kremlin’s behalf. ............ In 2016, as the Kremlin sought to swing the American presidential election to Donald J. Trump, Mr. Prigozhin jumped into the fray with an internet “troll factory,” waging “information warfare against the United States.” As Russia worked to expand its reach in Syria and Africa, Mr. Prigozhin deployed his growing Wagner mercenary force to those regions — allowing the Kremlin to project power while minimizing Russian military boots on the ground. ................ In Ukraine, as Mr. Prigozhin tells it, Wagner troops were only called in after Mr. Putin’s initial invasion plan failed. ............. In May, he congratulated Wagner mercenaries for their role in the capture of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, in a statement posted on the Kremlin’s website. Weeks later, he backed the Defense Ministry’s push for mercenaries to sign service contracts with the Russian military by July 1, a demand that infuriated Mr. Prigozhin. .

What’s happening in Russia? Here’s what we know. The Wagner chief’s broadside against the Russian military establishment has escalated tensions drastically, but it isn’t yet clear how much of a threat the situation poses to the Kremlin. ........ Russian generals on Friday accused a Russian mercenary tycoon of trying to mount a coup against President Vladimir V. Putin. It signaled an extraordinary open confrontation between the Wagner chief and the military, who have feuded for months over Russia’s war tactics in Ukraine. .......... He also described the invasion of Ukraine as a “racket” perpetrated by a corrupt Russian elite. ........... The St. Petersburg tycoon has for years been part of a charmed circle of Russian oligarchs with close ties to President Putin. In 2018, he was one of 13 Russians indicted by a federal grand jury in the United States for interfering in the 2016 American election. ........... Mr. Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary force, a shadowy private military company, first emerged during Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. It has since exerted influence on behalf of Moscow in Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, Sudan, Mali and Mozambique. ........... Prigozhin, who has recruited fighters from prisons, has been widely seen as a symbol of wartime Russia: ruthless, shameless and lawless. ............. official patience had clearly evaporated by Saturday morning, when the country’s prosecutor general announced that Mr. Prigozhin was being investigated on charges that carried a maximum prison term of 20 years. TASS, a Russian state news agency, reported that he had been charged. .

Who is Yevgeny Prigozhin, the mercenary leader Russia accused of mounting a coup? Mr. Prigozhin has risen from a businessman known as President Vladimir V. Putin’s “chef” to a symbol of wartime Russia, controlling a private army operating from Ukraine to Central African Republic. ........ Yevgeny V. Prigozhin became rich through his personal ties to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, winning lucrative catering and construction contracts with the Russian government while building a mercenary force known as Wagner............. Prigozhin (pronounced pree-GOH-zhin) .......... has also emerged as a public power player, using social media to turn tough talk and brutality into his personal brand. .............. In February 2018, Mr. Prigozhin was one of 13 Russians indicted by a federal grand jury for interfering in the American election through the Internet Research Agency, a troll factory that spread falsehoods and waged information warfare against the United States, in support of the presidential campaign of Donald J. Trump. ............ Born in 1961 when St. Petersburg was called Leningrad, Mr. Prigozhin was sent to prison in 1981 for robbery and other crimes .......... After serving his nine-year sentence, he opened a hot-dog stand, eventually leading to an entrepreneurial career starting restaurants and convenience stores. .

(January 2023) The Man Challenging Putin for Power . President Vladimir Putin of Russia, it seems, has finally noticed that the war in Ukraine created a dangerous competitor to his power: Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the private military company, the Wagner group, whose troops fight alongside the Russian Army. ......... In the summer of 2022, for instance, the ambitious Gen. Alexander Lapin was the recipient of a small online public relations campaign glorifying him. This immediately cost him his job — and a brief but powerful media war against him was launched by Mr. Prigozhin, who controls a series of online troll factories. ............ The Russian president saw Mr. Prigozhin as his man, an obedient tool and easy to use. ........... At first, he was known as Putin’s chef, who managed to become a state contractor of school lunches for Russian children all across the country. Then he created the troll factory, the Internet Research Agency, and he was singled out in Robert Mueller’s investigation into interference in the 2016 election. Finally, Mr. Prigozhin became famous as the founder of the Wagner group, whose contractors fought in Africa, Syria and now Ukraine. ............ But this year, Mr. Prigozhin moved into another league, surpassing all of Mr. Putin’s other friends in power. ........... But then the situation changed — a joker appeared, who can beat all the aces at the same time. If Mr. Prigozhin can free any prisoner, his powers are unlimited. ........... When the invasion started, Mr. Putin was obsessed with the war. It’s his only interest, sources claim. Only those people who are on the front lines have direct access to Mr. Putin and former members of the inner circle who ended up in the rear became less significant. ............ Mr. Prigozhin managed to create for himself the image of the most effective warrior. He is not subordinate to the Ministry of Defense, he is not included in the system of military bureaucracy, and he determines his own tasks, goals and time frames. According to my sources, Mr. Putin was fine with this arrangement. And he allowed Mr. Prigozhin to rudely and publicly criticize other generals. Mr. Putin has a low opinion of them, so he didn’t scold the Wagner founder. ............. Last fall, Yevgeny Nuzhin, a former Russian prisoner who defected to Ukraine after being recruited by the Wagner group and ended up back in Russia after a prisoner swap, was killed with a sledgehammer. A video of this massacre emerged in November and was most likely intended as a warning to all future deserters. ............. Surprisingly, this barbarity has a lot of fans. Stores in Russia began to sell “Wagner Sledgehammers,” as well as souvenirs and car stickers with Wagner symbols. Mr. Prigozhin, who put out a statement supporting Mr. Nuzhin’s killing, became somewhat of a folk hero. ............. By the end of 2022, many Moscow businessmen and officials strongly believed that Mr. Prigozhin was a real threat. “The sledgehammer is a message to all of us,” one oligarch told me. ........... On Jan. 10, Mr. Prigozhin reported on his company’s Telegram channel that Wagner militants had taken the Ukrainian city of Soledar. This was his most powerful propaganda victory and convincing proof that Wagner is one of the most combat-ready Russian units. My sources in Moscow say some high-ranking officials started discussing — supposedly half-jokingly — if it was the right time to swear allegiance to Mr. Prigozhin before it was too late. ................. Many Russians, zombified by propaganda, are frustrated that the army is not winning. Kyiv was not taken in a few days as promised. By appointing General Gerasimov supreme commander, Mr. Putin assumes responsibility for all subsequent defeats. ........ in the near future, Mr. Prigozhin may challenge the president, and Mr. Putin may no longer be able to oppose his former chef. .

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