Barackface: Janata Dal (United)

Showing posts with label Janata Dal (United). Show all posts

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

"They Don't Do Random"

In my favorite action movie(s), Bourne, the character Nicky says about Jason Bourne: "They don't do random. They don't make mistakes."

What if that is true also of Nitish Kumar? For the guy who was the top performing Chief Minister across India, maybe he does not do random either. There are conscious decisions you make. And there are subconscious decisions you make.

When people would ask him if he would become Prime Minister he would say, "मैं जिस बैकग्राउंड से आया हुँ वहाँ से तो ये चीफ मिनिस्टर का कुर्सी भी बहुत बड़ा है। इसकी कभी उम्मीद नहीं की थी।"

Look at the facts.

He was the first major politician across India to have called Modi a future Prime Minister. That is a matter of public record. He was on stage. Modi was sitting to his left.
His walking away from the BJP alliance made Modi dig harder. If Nitish had not walked away, chances are the BJP would neither have sought nor got a majority on its own.

Monday, June 15, 2015

नीतिश कुमार और नरेंद्र मोदी: दोनों के दोनों

The Bihari voters are smart. They can opt to get Nitish at the state level, and keep Modi at the center again in 2019. The Bihari voters know the difference between a central government and a state government. नीतिश कुमार और नरेंद्र मोदी: दोनों के दोनों। एक साथ।

Nitish could be brilliant in power in Patna, and brilliant in opposition at the national level, and Sushil Modi could be brilliant in opposition in Patna. लोकतंत्र में Opposition का भी बहुत बड़ा महत्त्व होता है। ये भारत है, चीन तो नहीं।

Sunday, June 14, 2015

Bihar@2025

India: A 15% Growth Rate Is Possible
India's Goal: $50 Trillion
मोदी के चाय दोकान पे चर्चा
ये राजा सिंह कौन?
बिहार के लिए फोर्मुला
World, India, Bihar
दलितों के पास दो रास्ता

पहली बार मेरे को लग रहा है नीतिश जित जाएंगे --- इस Bihar@2025 में दम है। डिजिटल टेक्नोलॉजी के माध्यम से इस डॉक्युमेंट को ऐसा किया जा सकता है कि बोल्ने वाले सभी को लगे कि मेरी बात सुनाइ दी और पब्लिक्ली रिकॉर्ड भी की गइ। ये एक जीवन्त डोक्युमेंट बन सकता है। No need for a deadline, कि अब समय ख़त्म है, अब आप अपना विचार शेयर नहीं कर सकते।

Bihar@2025 + Prashant Kishor = Victory for Nitish

इस से जितन और पप्पु neutralize हो जाते हैं।

लेकिन प्रशान्त किशोर का महत्त्व चुनाव के बाद खत्म नहीं हो जाता। His digital ways should also be put to use in governance. He is a political consultant, not a political leader, not a party chief. Amit Shah is party chief.

Bihar growth tops Nitish Kumar's poll agenda

The process to prepare the vision document, billed as the first of its kind, will involve about 4 crore people living in 40,000 villages over the next eight to 10 weeks. Nitish said that the vision document would be prepared on the basis of the people's feedback and interaction with them. "We will go out and seek the opinion of the people on various issues related to development and incorporate it in the vision document," he said. "This is going to be the world's biggest campaign of its kind for public participation. ..... Nitish, on this occasion, sought to highlight all the major achievements of his government in his two tenures right from the 50 per cent reservation for women in the panchayat elections to framing of laws to confiscate the property of the corrupt public servants.

Ahead of polls, Nitish launches Bihar@2025

the world's largest campaign for participatory agenda, Bihar@2025 will collate ideas to produce vision document on development for the next 10 years. ..... it aims to reach out to four crore people residing in 40,000 villages in the state, including 10,000 government and civil society members, over the next eight to 10 weeks. ...... the campaign will elicit views of the people, encourage them to tell about their issues, and what they want in health, electricity, education, employment and other sectors of development. ...... Views will also be sought from people hailing from non-resident Biharis, as well as from specialists in different fields in this regard ....... Our purpose is to establish jan samvad (public interaction) for an interactive vision document. ....... will help prepare the state for a “quantum jump” in socio-economic development. ..... The Bihar Chief Minister listed the successes of his tenure in ensuring better law and order, along with “rule of law”, raising literacy rate from 47 per cent to 62 per cent in the last 10 years, ensuring an enrolment rate of 98.1 per cent in primary schools. ...... Included in the list were increasing road length in the state by 50 per cent, constructing 1,151 bridges, three times growth in per capita income, seven times higher paddy production rate than the national average and charting a faster growth rate of Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) in comparison to all other states.

Nitish does a Modi, sets up ‘war room’ ahead of polls

Mr. Kishor on Tuesday asked the JD(U) to open the ‘war room’ and improve the media cell. He also had a long meeting with three party spokespersons at the official residence of Mr. Kumar and gave them important lessons on how to issue statements and counter the arguments of BJP leaders. ...... There will be three commanders at the well-equipped ‘war room’. Rajya Sabha member K. C. Tyagi will be the chief commander, assisted by other RS members Pawan Verma and Harivansh. ...... Mr. Kishor asked JD(U) spokespersons to give a “balanced response” when allegations are hurled against the party and to counter the BJP Ministers on “individual basis.” Party spokespersons were also advised to be in touch with each other on a daily basis. .... “Only those who have a complete grasp on an issue should make a statement,” Mr. Kishor advised the spokespersons. ..... Under the programme altogether 400 trucks equipped with TV sets, music systems, microphones and speakers and led by a representative of Mr. Kishor’s team will move from village to village and showcase the government’s achievements.

‘Bihar@2025 campaign is political stunt’

Bihar@2025
‘Charcha’ before Nitish’s ‘chai’ is ready for offer

39,076 events would be held in 150 days to reach a population of four crore during the Bihar poll. Besides, on the footsteps of Narendra Modi’s Chai pe Charcha, for Bihar CM, Kishor plans to have Breakfast with CM. ..... concept of ‘Photo with CM’ and ‘Gaurav Goshti’ will be held while for villages ‘Jan Bhaagidari’ would be launched. ..... Bihar’s success stories like creation of Special Auxillary Police (SAP)––to address shortage in police manpower by recruiting 5,000 ex-army men––and Rs 2,000 for school girls to buy bicycle after they pass their class VIII exams would be highlighted. ...... the success stories would be projected as ‘Bihar Models’ which have been replicated by other states. For example, as they are replicated, both the Bihar models were replicated by different states. SAP was adopted in Odisha, Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand, while Mukhyamantri Balika Cycle Yojana were adopted by Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. He plans to work on the slogan ‘Badhte Bihar ke 10 Baras’ (Ten years of developing Bihar). ....... “Kishor had expressed a desire to work with Nitish Kumar because he sees a future leader in him. Kishor has already said it on record that he wants to work for Nitish Kumar.” ...... while the BJP successfully used Kishor and his team of 60 professionals for 2012 Gujarat Assembly and 2014 Lok Sabha elections the copy of presentation before the JD(U) top brass reached DNA before the deal was done.

Prashant Kishor: Man pivot of PM Narendra Modi campaign in talks to help steer JD(U) in Bihar election

Saturday, June 06, 2015

Bihar: My Projections

It was advantage Modi during the Lok Sabha election last year. It was advantage Nitish during the bypolls that followed. But much has changed since then. Nitish has lost Jitan Majhi and Laloo has lost Pappu Yadav. Not only has Nitish lost Jitan Majhi, he has lost him to the BJP camp.

बिहार में आम की राजनीति

If it were the BJP, Paswan and Kushwaha one one side, and Nitish, Laloo, Congress, NCP, Left, Jitan, Pappu on the other side, it was a 50-50 contest with a slight advantage to the BJP still. That was the case during the bypolls, but that is no longer the case. Pappu is in neither camp right now.

So right now, the way I see it, it is Advantage Sushil Modi.

But that is if Nitish and Laloo manage to stick together. If they contest separately, the BJP sweep of the state might mirror its sweep during the Lok Sabha elections last year.

Sushil Modi In Janakpurdham
Janakpur Patna Kolkata Industrial Corridor
बिहार के लिए फोर्मुला
World, India, Bihar
The Next Chief Minister Of Bihar?

A nightmare scenario for Nitish would be if even Pappu decides to join the BJP led front. At that point it is a no contest. It will be a clear BJP sweep.

Nitish gave seven excellent years to Bihar, उसके बाद उन्होने अडवाणी के लिए आत्म दाह कर लिया।

The BJP has declared a desire to contest 185 seats, Paswan wants 60, Kushwaha 40, Jitan wants 40, Pappu is open to being part of the alliance. Considering there are only 245 seats available, they might go for a 130-35-25-30-25 kind of split.

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Advantage Sushil Modi

नीतिश, लालु, माझी, पप्पु, काँग्रेस, वाम पार्टी सब एक जगह रहते तो ये रेस ५०-५० था। लेकिन ये लोग तो बुरी तरह बिखर गए हैं। Right now Sushil Modi has a clear advantage. And he is a good man. Modest, hard working, lightning smart. इनकी बीवी ही क्रिस्चियन -- तो इन पर वो इल्जाम नहीं लगा सकते जो कभी कभी RSS टाइप वालों पर लगाया जाता है। सबका साथ तो इनके घर से ही शुरू होता है। और क्या है कि राजनीति में अधिकांश backbenchers पहुँच जाते हैं। लेकिन सुशील मोदी तो university topper थे। नीतिश ने जो अद्भुत काम किया २००५ से २०१२ तक तो वहां सुशील सेकंड इन कमांड थे, और road और health तो इनके ही कैंप के लोग सम्हाल रहे थे। अब शायद बिहार में सुशील मोदी की बारी है।

नीतिश अलग से लड़ेंगे, लालु अलग से लड़ेंगे, माझी अलग, पप्पु अलग ---- तो सुशील मोदी तो स्वीप करेंगे। वैसा दिख रहा है। दिल्ली में नमो, पटना में सुमो। मैं तो यही चाहुँगा सुशीलजी बिहार को १५% ग्रोथ रेट दें। संभव है।

Saturday, May 23, 2015

World, India, Bihar

India is the most interesting democracy in the world, and Bihar is the most interesting democracy in India. इतना ज्यादा उठापटक! :)

Pappu Yadav pitches for Third Front in Bihar
Is Nitish Kumar working on a new Bihar poll strategy that excludes Laloo and Mulayam?
Lalu Prasad Yadav pushes anti-BJP front in Bihar, Nitish skips meet
ABP News Opinion Poll: The mood in Bihar
Modi warns against caste politics in Bihar

बीजेपी के लिए बिहार और उत्तर प्रदेश बहुत महत्त्व रखता है। दोनों जगह वो लोग संभावना देख रहे हैं। पश्चिम बंगाल, उड़ीसा, तमिलनाडु जैसे जगहों पे तो वहाँ के लोकल पार्टी जम के बैठे हुवे हैं। वहां बीजेपी को कोइ opening नहीं दिखाइ दे रही है। २०१७ में बीजेपी वाले UP तो बिलकुल स्वीप करेंगे। बिहार में 100-100-45 फोर्मुला पर परिवार वाले लड़ते तो 50-50 chance था। लेकिन परिवार में जो soap opera चल रहा है उससे बीजेपी का पलड़ा भारी पड़ गया है। शायद नीतिश ने तीन गलतियां की: (१) बीजेपी से नाता तोडा (२) मुख्य मंत्री पद से इस्तीफा दिया (३) मुलायम को नेता माना, थके हुवे Zero Development Man को।

लालु का strength था पप्पु ----- रोम पोप का मधेपुरा गोप का। मधेपुरा तो पप्पु का है। नीतिश को महादलित वोट चाहिए थी। संख्या काफी है महादलितों की। ये नहीं की वो सबके सब जीतन के साथ हो लिए, लेकिन काफी fracturing तो जरूर हुवा है।

Advantage Sushil Modi.

राज्य सभा के अंक गणित को मैं नहीं समझ पा रहा हुँ। बिहार और उत्तर प्रदेश बीजेपी के झोली में आ भी जाए तो राज्य सभा में उनको बहुमत मिल्ने में काफी समय लगेगी। They have no choice but to try and work with people like Patnaik and Jayalalitha. Even if they form governments in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.

पहले पहले जितन और पप्पु निकले, अब नीतिश और लालु की बोलचाल बंद होती जा रही है। ये दोनों २०-३० सीटों पर आ उतरेंगे।

सबसे अच्छा तो ये होता कि नीतिश और सुशील फिर से एक जगह आ जाते। दो तिहाइ का सरकार बनाते। बिहार के विकास के लिए। मुलायम आप को नहीं चाहते हैं, लालु नहीं चाहते हैं, सुशील मोदी तो अभी भी आपको चाहते हैं।

दलितों के पास दो रास्ता
The Next Chief Minister Of Bihar?
Nitish In Election Mode
जितन और पप्पु ने बिहार को पेंचिंदा बनाया
बिहार का मामला