Barackface: Prime minister

Showing posts with label Prime minister. Show all posts

Sunday, May 18, 2014

Nitish Should Give 10 More Years To Bihar

English: Flag of Janata Dal (United) of India (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I think of Nitish Kumar as a Prime Minister in waiting, because he has been the top performing Chief Minister in India. I talked yesterday in terms of a JD(U), RJD, Congress alliance. But even that might not be necessary. Nitish could go solo and do well. He could earn a 60+% majority in the Bihar assembly next year.

The PM chair might have been taken by Modi. But the country does not have a clear Opposition Leader. There is only one person who can fill that void. And that person is Nitish. I am aware he is not a MP. He does not need to be. He can be Chief Minister and the top Opposition Leader at the same time.

The people of Bihar love him so much they snuffed out all possibilities of him moving from Patna to Delhi. That is why they gave him only two seats. They don't want to lose him. The people of Bihar have given him a clear mandate to continue in Patna, and he should respect that mandate, the janadesh.

He has a comfortable majority in the Bihar assembly right now. His party will get a 60+% majority on its own next year. In 2018 his party will get 20+ MPs. In 2019 his strength in the Bihar assembly will only get better. Then in 2022 the people of Bihar will give him 40 MPs so he can lay a claim to the throne in Delhi.

Until then he gets to act the Opposition Leader to Modi in Delhi. Modi has been good for business, and that is also important, but the same Modi has been rather weak on the human development index, and there Nitish is strong.

Friday, May 16, 2014

Modi’s Victory

Modi has emerged the clear winner at the end of the most interesting Indian election of my lifetime. I did not follow his leadership of Gujrat as it happened although I have read a ton about it, and have watched many relevant videos on YouTube, many at his official channel itself, but I did follow his election campaign, and I must say I was captivated. He ran an excellent campaign. If he is going to be as efficient and effective as Prime Minister as he has been as campaigner, he will give India double digit growth rates, and give himself 10 years as Prime Minister. He will turn the BJP into the new Congress. He might even get the BJP past the majority mark all on its own the next time around.

2014 is that watershed year when India embarks on its journey to catch up with China and possibly even surpass it. The surpassing might not happen on Modi’s watch, but he is in a good position to prepare grounds for it, just like Deng Xiaoping put China on a certain path of economic growth.

Modi’s humble origins both in terms of class and caste are no small detail. That someone of his background can get the top job makes India look good.

What was amazing to me while I watched the election campaign was that no one else was even running for the top job, not Rahul, not Nitish. It is as if Modi had the entire runway all on his own. He had a free hand. One lesson of this election season is, you can not win if you are not even running.

To me Nitish is as big a story as Modi himself. Modi won, Nitish lost, but remember that Nitish started opposing Laloo when Laloo was at his peak, and Nitish eventually snatched the top job in Bihar from Laloo and performed way better than the Yadav. I still see Nitish as a future Prime Minister. But that involves Nitish hanging on to his chair now, and performing well in the Bihar state elections slated for next year. He should be able to get something like a 60% majority next year. He gets a third term and keeps being the top performing Chief Minister, and his time will come. Maybe it will be Nitish who will succeed Modi, if not in five, then perhaps in 10 years.

With a weakened Congress, the country stands a strong chance of going bipolar in that the Congress will have no choice but to become a junior member of a Nitish led front down the line. The Congress might become weaker still.

The people of Bihar did not want to lose Nitish. They routinely told pollsters they will vote for Nitish next year.

I see a scenario where Modi is the Prime Minister, and Nitish is the Opposition Leader, even though he is in Patna and not in Delhi. The Opposition Leader eventually grabs the top job. The dog finally catches up with the car.

Nitish could do two more terms and a Bihar model could be one where once agriculture and infrastructure are in good shape, the total focus is on the knowledge and service economies. After taking care of roads and bridges and electricity, Nitish next focuses on broadband and takes it to all cities, towns, and villages. And there is a major focus on knowledge entrepreneurs who are based in Bihar but who serve the global economy.

What you have to know about Gujrat is that it is already better than most economies in Europe in every way. Gujrat competes with the likes of Britain, France and Germany. Gujrat is India’s California.

There is no personal animosity between Modi and Nitish, never has been. There is political competition. And that competition is good for Indian politics, and the Indian economy. Those who wish Modi and Nitish were on the same side don’t realize that the competition is a good thing. Nitish did not make the mistake of parting ways with Modi. Parting ways was the only way he could some day become Prime Minister.

India is already the number three economy in the world. China is about to become number one. America is going to be sandwiched between China and India. At some point India is going to take over America, and then eventually it is going to take over China. Modi is going to put India on that journey. That is why the country is so excited about him.

Modi is seen by many as right of center along the lines of Reagan and Thatcher. I am not sure that is a good comparison. I think the better comparison is with Deng Xiaoping. Deng was pragmatic to a fault. It does not matter if the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice, Deng liked to say. (written on 5/14)

Sunday, May 11, 2014

Modi Has A Shot

English: Narendra Modi in Press Conference (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I have been reading news on Indian elections quite literally every day. It has been fascinating. I don't watch sports. I watch politics. The outcome is far from clear, but I think Modi has a shot at the top job.

There was no way Rahul could have beat the anti-incumbency wave. But it has perplexed me how Modi has been the only one running for the top job. He first ran a primary inside his party that holds no primaries. Then he ran a presidential campaign in a country that does not hold a presidential election. He has challenged the basic rules, and I have thought that as impressive.

No matter who wins, who loses, 2014 is the watershed year for India. After this election India takes off in a big way. That is the impression I am getting.

Post May 16 is key. There is a possibility something by the name of a Secular Front might emerge. It all depends on the numbers. If the BJP is below or too close to 200, such a Front could emerge. Or Modi could end up getting a mandate. I have not known to follow or believe in the surveys or polls. Either they have overestimated Modi, or they have underestimated him. But I don't feel like they are accurate.

My horse in the race has been Nitish. He has been the top performing Chief Minister. And there is also that Bihari pride thing. But looks like he has not had a clear national strategy. Or maybe there is a point in waiting for May 16 for that strategy to emerge. India is an indirect democracy. People elect their MPs. Then those MPs elect the Prime Minister. So anything could happen. I will wait and watch.

Saturday, December 08, 2012

The Nitish Magic

The NDA Option For Nitish
A Roadmap For Nitish
Nitish Is My Lula

Nitish is the best Chief Minister India has today, and has had for the past several years. The guy gave Bihar a 16% growth rate this past year. That is putting China to shame.

If Nitish is not the next Prime Minister of India then there is something wrong with Indian democracy.

It is possible neither the BJP nor the Congress go past 200 seats in 2014.

The best outcome would be for the BJP to realize that Bihar is bigger than Gujarat. And Bihar is doing better than Gujarat. And pushing Nitish as the NDA's PM candidate expands the NDA. With Modi at the helm, the NDA might get reduced to one party.

Being the NDA's PM candidate is also the best option for Nitish. That would snuff out Mulayam's chances. Mulayam is not a great PM candidate in the first place. The NDA option is better for Nitish than any Third Front option.

JD (U) - 27
BJP - 150
Trinamool Congress - 20
Shiv Sena - 10
Biju Janata Dal - 15
BSP - 20
SP - 15
RJD - 5
DMK - 15
AIADMK - 10
JD (S) - 2
CPI (M) - 15
Others - 20

Total - 324

The BJP will have less than half the weight in the new coalition. And so it would make even more sense to see Nitish at the helm. There is no way Modi could pull together a coalition like this one. For Nitish it would be easy.

With his focus on development Nitish might be able to bring about a bipolarization in Indian politics. Either you are with the Congress or you are with Nitish. The various Janata Dals might become one again and make another go for a national presence.

If Nitish is not pro poor I don't know who is. The communist parties are going to have to come along.

Indian general election, 2009 - Wikipedia
India's massive general election
BJP, minorities, and 2014 elections
NDA strides past UPA

If elections were held today, it would be NDA's comeback moment. UPA, which at 171-181 seats (against its actual 259 in 2009), is trailing behind NDA, whose tally stands at a respectable 195-205 (as against its actual 159).

Nitish to meet Mamata, fuels buzz of new front
‘NDA has not zeroed in on PM candidate’
Nitish Kumar for FDI in infrastructure, not in retail

Saturday, September 01, 2012

Nitish Kumar's JD(U) Has National Appeal

I follow news on Nitish Kumar with great interest. This guy has given Bihar a miraculous 16% growth rate this year. I see double digit growth rates for Bihar as far as the eyes can see.

Nitish Kumar is in a very strong position in Bihar. We all know that. But he also has a national appeal. The only way to prove that to be true is for JD(U) to field candidates all over the country.

Could Nitish Kumar Do Broadband?
Paramendra Kumar Batting For Nitish Kumar
Nitish Kumar: Prime Minister
Nitish Kumar, Bihar

Nitish Kumar's good work as CM dents his PM prospect

The survey, conducted in 125 out of 543 Lok Sabha seats covering 18 big cities, also shows JD(U) gaining more seats in the next Lok Sabha polls at the cost of all other parties. The survey forecasts 25 seats for JD(U) (a gain of five seats from its tally in 2009 elections), while only for Congress and a loss of four seats to other parties, including BJP. ..... More worryingly for the Congress, it is expected to lose five of its seven parliamentary seats in Delhi to the BJP in the next elections. .... As many as 76% respondents said India must have reservation for women in Parliament.

Urban India votes for Narendra Modi as PM

In a survey conducted in 28 cities across the country by a Hindi news channel and Nielsen, Modi has emerged as the favourite ahead of even Rahul Gandhi and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar. While 42% of respondents wanted Modi as the next PM, only 29% were for Rahul Gandhi. Nitish Kumar got 12% in his favour. ..... If elections were held now, 27% potential voters would go with the saffron party, while only 18% would choose Congress. .... Only 66% of those who voted for Congress during 2009 Lok Sabha elections, are still intending to vote for it. However, the BJP is gaining only 8% of this vote swing. At the same time, for the BJP, 82% of its voters will stick with it and the Congress would gain only 4% out of this exodus, clearly showing an opportunity for regional parties to do well in urban centres. ..... he is favourite even within the BJP. He gets almost double the responses in his favour as against party veteran L K Advani (51% to Advani's 28%). Respondents also feel that if Modi is chosen PM candidate opposing allies (read JD-U) will eventually come around...... both the Congress and the BJP have lost confidence of urban voters. The combined response for willingness to vote for these two parties was less than 50% .... people showing overwhelming support for Team Anna entering politics and respondents hailing the activist as the country's role model. .... an overwhelming 77% said they would vote for Team Anna candidates in elections. Anna also emerges as country's top role model with Dr A P J Abdul Kalam (both bagging 12% responses in their favour)

Congress will be wiped out in 2012 polls: Narendra Modi Sanjay Joshi resigns from BJP

Both the BJP and RSS have been divided on the manner in which Joshi had to resign from the BJP's national executive as Modi put this as a condition for him to attend the Mumbai conclave.

Upset with Narendra Modi, Advani triggers implosion in BJP

Advani has told close aides that the personality cult that Narendra Modi was trying to impose on the BJP was harmful for the organisation. ... Instead of discussing important issues, he felt, the executive members speculated on whether Modi would attend the meeting or not. ..... Significantly, Advani left the venue immediately after Modi finally arrived at the executive, amid orchestrated chants of Dekho dekho kaun aya, Gujarat ka sher aya'. Also, he skipped the public meeting the next day. ..... He is upset that Gadkari is now happy playing second fiddle to Modi — which was evident from his denial of permission to Joshi to travel through Gujarat by train and his handing over of a memorandum to the President against the Gujarat governor. ....... Advani has been upset with Modi since September 2011 when the CM sat over his proposal to start a Rathyatra against corruption from Gujarat, preferably from Porbandar or Karamsad — the birth places of Mahatma Gandhi and Sardar Patel, respectively. Instead, he chose to launch the programme from Bihar.

BJP patriarch L K Advani criticises party decisions on his personal blog

No doubt Advani raises some serious issues. But he's senior enough for his views to be heard within party forums. By washing dirty linen in public, he has reinforced the impression of drift in his party. .... It's no secret that Nitin Gadkari securing a second term as BJP president did not go down well with Advani. With the RSS orchestrating a patch-up between Narendra Modi and Gadkari, the BJP patriarch feels his chances of becoming the party's prime ministerial candidate in 2014 slipping away.

JD(U) has an alliance with BJP, not RSS: Nitish Kumar

Apparently seeking to link his secular NDA prime ministerial candidate plank to the foundation of ties between JD(U) and BJP in 1996, Kumar said his party had formed an alliance on the agenda against scrapping of Article 370 of the Constitution and Uniform Civil Code, besides judicial or negotiated settlement of Ayodhya dispute. ....... JD(U) will not compromise with dilution in any of these core issues vis-a-vis its relations with BJP, he said.

BJD, AIADMK shy away from third front

The regional party has taken the view that a third front is a misnomer and a federal front will emerge only after the next election.

NDA PM has to come from BJP: Nitish Kumar

Viewed against this and the backdrop of his reservations about the Gujarat CM, the disclosure that he would back someone else could be read as his trying to set a condition to continue his association with the NDA.

Thackeray family originally belonged to Bihar: Digvijaya's reaction to Raj's comments

Congress general secretary Digvijaya Singh said the Thackeray family itself belonged to Bihar and had settled in Dhar in Western Madhya Pradesh from where they migrated to Mumbai. .... "If you look at the history of Mumbai, then it is a city of fishermen. Rest all have settled there from outside," Singh said.

Nitish Kumar Reshuffles State Bureaucracy NDA PM has to come from BJP: Nitish Kumar Pakistan invites Nitish Kumar, wish to replicate his funda of growth

Kumar gave an assurance to visit all the five provinces to an all-party delegation of parliamentarians from Pakistan, led by secretary general of Pakistan People's Party and leader of the house in senate Jehangir Badr. ..... Praising Kumar's efforts in transforming Bihar, which drew the delegation to Bihar, the members said that they percieved him as a leading player in Indian national politics and the sub-continent. The Pakistani delegation said that the invitation had been given to Nitish Kumar in consultation with the governments of all five provinces, which wanted to know about the models his government had adopted to bring about complete transformation of Bihar. ..... "It was because of the people's aspirations, governments of both the countries are determined to ease the visa norms, the draft of which is almost ready for signing" ..... To a query, the delegation members said Pakistan was the worst victim of terrorism and the governments of both the country should strengthen their cooperation to fight it out. "If European countries can prosper on mutual trusts, why not India and Pakistan can help each other to fight poverty, terrorism to grow," they said.