Showing posts with label freedom. Show all posts
Showing posts with label freedom. Show all posts

Friday, September 13, 2019

News: Hong Kong, Plan B, Mainland, Bubble Tea Summit

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Hong Kong 2019: This Is 1989 For Asia

And the best route is not the route that was taken in Russia in 1989. The collapse was spectacular, true. That was good news for the victor. But that saw a decade of economic contraction for Russia, and falling living standards. There was half baked democracy. The mafia swooped in. There are people who argue Russia is not even a democracy.

That is why my first choice is one country, two systems. But it does require that Beijing makes peace with full-fledged democracy in Hong Kong. If not, two countries, one system, democracy, might become the new slogan.

The US political system is bubbling with complaints about how things are. Money is too influential in American politics. Maybe Hong Kong does not want a copycat system. In fact, Hong Kong seems to have a bigger money in politics problem. The Hong Kong billionaires put the Koch brothers to shame.

And that is why I think the Hong Kong protestors need to become politically organized and engage in intelligent debates and discussions on the kind of political system they might want. Maybe they can build something new. Maybe they can build something that progressives in America dream about.

Freedom has to ring. But the call for freedom can not be naive. This ongoing protest movement in Hong Kong should seek inspiration from Eastern Europe in 1989, true. But it also should learn. The post-1989 transition in Russia could have been handled much, much better.

Voices inside the Chinese Communist Party that might have democratic aspirations need to rise. They need to make a case that the one country, two systems that was promised to Hong Kong must be delivered. That 2047 is not when Hong Kong becomes like China, but that is when China becomes like Hong Kong, if not earlier.

Boris Yeltsin was a member of the communist party in Russia. Who are the Boris Yeltsins of China?

Let Boris be an inspiration. But let him also be a warning. He messed up the transition big time.

Xi Jinping having declared himself president for life might have been the moment when the Chinese Communist Party signed its death warrant. The 10-year term that was in place was perhaps a better arrangement. Now the Chinese have a system where you can not challenge that one guy. This system will break, but it will not bend. Looks like it will break.

I know so little about internal Chinese politics, I don't seem to know the name of any other politician besides Xi. Okay, there is that Vice President guy who leads the trade talks. And the Foreign Minister. But other than that, I don't seem to have names and faces. Who are these people?










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Thursday, September 12, 2019

Hong Kong Should Take The Plunge

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What is the idea?

Is the idea to get people out into the streets? Well, you did. The streets are full. They have been full for months. Is the idea to shut the city down? The city looks shut. Although it can be more shut. It can be completely shut. If the idea is to shut the city, the only way it will work is if the city is completely shut. But the city is almost completely shut as it is.

What's the idea? Is the idea to shut the city down for so many weeks, so many months? Is it about how long? At what point does it work? If it did not work with three months, will it work with four months? Five months? How long is long enough?

This waiting game shows a lack of political sophistication. The people who are out in the streets need to get politically organized. Form political parties. Join political parties. Hold meetings.

That there are five specific demands shows some political maturity. But where is strategy talk? Where is talk of tactics? The super success of the street protests could not have happened without sound tactics. They are there. But they have to be taken to another level.

There is need for organized, sustained political conversation. There is need for political structure. There is need for political leadership.

The only way this thing is going to work is if Hong Kong threatens to break away, declare independence. Singapore is a country. Maybe Hong Kong can be one too. But that thought of threatening independence can not enter the political stage unless the millions of people out in the streets become politically organized.

It can't be about imitating America. America does not have all the answers. In fact, China does have some of the answers.

I was just reading about Xinjiang, and I am thinking, looks like Xi is breaking up families there just like Donald Deng Trump is breaking up families on the Mexican border. China has a surveillance problem. America does too. Although, to be fair, in China it is much more sinister.

The goals have to be clear. And they are. The five demands are pretty clear. But they can not be set in stone. Sticking to one country, two systems is a sound idea, I think. But if you stick to it unthinkingly, then there lies defeat. The Hong Kong protest movement has to be open to the idea of declaring independence. That is the only way Beijing might listen. Even if the idea is to preserve one country, two systems, the only way to get the five demands met while still preserving one country, two systems is by being ready to threaten independence. But you can not threaten independence unless you are politically organized. I don't see that political structure.

Saying by action that this will work if only you do it for long enough is not a sound strategy. Facing the fact that that is what you are saying and subjecting that to relentless internal political dialogue is political maturity.

Beijing has already made its move. If you declare independence, we will invade you. That seems to be the message. If the protest movement were to similarly say, if you don't meet our five demands, we will declare independence will force Beijing's hand. I don't think they can invade without risking a total collapse of the communist party inside China.

One move would be tactical. Make a credible threat for independence such that Beijing is forced to accept the five demands. Another is independence as a political goal. For that you would need to organize globally. Make secret pleas to governments around the world. Ask for support. This is our government is waiting. After we declare, will you duly recognize us, please?

Personally I am perfectly okay with one country two systems. But I do think all members of the Hong Kong legislature as well as the Chief Executive need to be directly elected by the people.

Another option is to stay put. Keep doing what you are doing. Be prepared to do it all the way to the new year. That action on its own will lead to a collapse of the communist party inside China. East Europe saw 1989. East Asia will see 2019. Better late than never.

China, US, Hong Kong, Xinjiang
Hong Kong Should Inspire America?
Andrew Yang: Suave Politician?
Hong Kong Problem: Unholy Alliance Of Capitalists And Communists
Carrie Lam, What Took You So Long?
Hong Kong And Beijing: The Water Will Break The Dam
Hong Kong Chief Executive Can't Choose To Quit
Delhi Must Restore Normalcy In Kashmir
Steve Bannon, Hong Kong, 1989, And The CCP
Blatant Racial Bias Against Andrew Yang In The Mainstream Media
Why Hong Kong Needs A Directly Elected Chief Executive
The Hong Kong Protest Lacks Political Sophistication
Hong Kong: The Shenzen Angle
Could Andrew Yang Become President?
Hong Kong Protests: The World Should Not Watch A Possible Massacre
Protests In Hong Kong
An Intelligent Conversation On Trade
WTO Reform: A New Round Of Trade Talks Are Necessary




















Hong Kong activist to Germany: stop selling riot control kit to city Joshua Wong urges Berlin to halt export of equipment such as water cannon used against protesters
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