Showing posts with label Xi Jinping. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

China and the United States: A Tale of Two Political Systems

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

China and the United States: A Tale of Two Political Systems

The political systems of China and the United States represent two profoundly different models of governance — each with its own strengths, weaknesses, and internal contradictions. Understanding how they work helps shed light not just on global tensions, but on deeper debates about democracy, stability, and human flourishing.

How the Chinese Communist Party Works

At the heart of China's political system is the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), a single-party organization that claims to represent the long-term interests of the Chinese people. Leadership within the Party is structured hierarchically, with power concentrated at the top — in bodies like the Politburo, Politburo Standing Committee, and ultimately the General Secretary (currently Xi Jinping).

Decisions are typically made through a combination of top-down directives and internal consensus-building. Senior Party leaders consult with experts, local officials, and interest groups (including business and academia) through a system called "democratic consultation". Major policies are often tested at local levels first (e.g., in pilot zones) before being scaled nationwide.

When Chinese leaders describe China as a "socialist democracy", they point to mechanisms like:

Local elections (for village committees, albeit with Party oversight),
The National People’s Congress (China’s legislature, which formally approves laws and leadership appointments),
Public feedback channels (like surveys, petitions, or "suggestions to the leadership" programs),
Intra-party democracy (debate within the CCP before unified policies are announced).

However, multiparty competitive elections, an independent judiciary, and adversarial media — hallmarks of Western liberal democracies — do not exist.

How the US Political System Works

The United States operates a representative democracy with multiple competing political parties, most prominently the Democrats and Republicans. Power is divided between executive, legislative, and judicial branches, and the system is designed with checks and balances.

Key features include:

Direct elections for Congress and the Presidency,
Freedom of speech and press, allowing vigorous public debate,
Independent judiciary, capable of checking executive power,
Federalism, allowing states significant autonomy.

While designed for openness and accountability, the US system also suffers from deep political polarization, campaign finance corruption, gerrymandering, voter suppression controversies, and at times, gridlock where critical legislation stalls indefinitely.

Western Criticism of China: Is It Fair?

One of the most common criticisms leveled against China from the West is the lack of free speech. There is significant evidence for this:

Censorship of media and the internet,
Suppression of dissent, including jailing activists, lawyers, and journalists,
Tight control over NGOs and religious organizations,
Surveillance systems deployed for social control.

In the Western view, free speech is a bedrock principle of democracy — without it, citizens cannot hold leaders accountable.

However, Chinese officials argue that Western-style "free speech" often devolves into disinformation, social instability, and political paralysis. They point to China's economic success, poverty eradication, rising life expectancy, and infrastructure boom as evidence that their model "works" better for maintaining national order and delivering results.

Chinese Criticism of the US: What Do They Say?

Chinese critiques of the American system are sharp and, in some cases, resonate with objective realities:

Homelessness crisis: Tens of thousands sleep on streets in wealthy US cities, while China boasts of near-universal housing access.
Mass incarceration: The US incarcerates a higher percentage of its population than any other major country, disproportionately impacting minorities.
Falling life expectancy: Drug overdoses, suicides, and healthcare inequalities have eroded US life expectancy — a shocking decline for a rich country.
Political dysfunction: Government shutdowns, legislative gridlock, and hyper-partisanship paint the US as a democracy in disrepair.
Gross inequality: A few billionaires control massive wealth while millions struggle with basic needs.

Chinese leaders often argue that the US political model, though colorful and free in appearance, fails large segments of its own population and creates deep social instability.

Comparing Strengths and Weaknesses

Feature	China	United States
Political Stability	High — centralized decision-making avoids deadlock.	Moderate — elections can trigger instability and rapid policy swings.
Responsiveness to Public Needs	High in material areas (infrastructure, poverty alleviation), low in areas of personal freedoms.	High in freedom of expression, low and uneven in economic and social safety nets.
Freedom of Expression	Limited — dissent controlled tightly.	Broad — but challenged by disinformation and media polarization.
Efficiency of Governance	High — long-term projects like high-speed rail, urbanization plans are rapidly executed.	Variable — large projects often stalled by lawsuits, partisan fights, local resistance.
Social Mobility and Opportunity	Rising — rapid educational expansion and economic growth lifted millions.	Stagnating — particularly for working-class Americans, amidst widening inequality.
Human Rights	Criticized — censorship, ethnic policies (e.g., in Xinjiang), political prisoners.	Criticized — systemic racism, police brutality, mass incarceration.
Legitimacy Perception	High among many citizens (measured in domestic surveys), but no electoral challenge to verify.	High in theory, declining in practice (growing distrust in elections, institutions).

Conclusion: Two Systems Under Pressure

The truth is neither political system is perfect.

China’s model delivers rapid economic growth and centralized power but suppresses dissent and demands loyalty over individual liberty.
America’s model offers robust freedoms and formal checks on power, but increasingly struggles with internal decay, inequality, and political dysfunction.

Both countries are now wrestling with challenges that demand evolution: China needs to manage social demands for greater personal freedom as its society modernizes; the US needs to reform its political and economic systems to regain public trust and deliver more equitable outcomes.

Rather than assuming one model will inevitably "win," perhaps the real future lies in understanding the trade-offs each society makes — and recognizing that the ultimate measure of any political system is how well it serves its people.

Thursday, April 17, 2025

The Currency Stalemate: How U.S. and China’s Rigid Stands Threaten Global Economic Balance

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption

The Currency Stalemate: How U.S. and China’s Rigid Stands Threaten Global Economic Balance

The global financial system is caught in a quiet but profound tug-of-war. On one side is the United States, fiercely guarding the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s dominant reserve currency. On the other is China, aggressively pushing for dedollarization without making the structural reforms necessary for the yuan to step into that role. Both nations are clinging to contradictory and ultimately self-defeating currency policies—and the rest of the world, especially the poorest countries, may pay the price.

The Dollar’s Double-Edged Sword

America has long benefited from the dollar’s position as the de facto global currency. It allows the U.S. to borrow at lower costs, run massive deficits, and print money with relatively low inflationary consequences. More than military might, diplomacy, or even GDP, this financial supremacy is the cornerstone of American global power.

But this “exorbitant privilege” comes with an economic trade-off: chronic trade deficits. When you export your currency—because the world needs dollars for trade and reserves—you inevitably import goods and services. This structural imbalance has hollowed out parts of U.S. industry and fueled political backlash, even as it underwrites the global financial system.

China’s Currency Conundrum

Meanwhile, China aspires to chip away at dollar dominance. Through initiatives like the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), the digital yuan, and trade deals settled in renminbi (RMB), Beijing is laying the groundwork for a multipolar currency world. But there’s a fundamental contradiction at the heart of China’s ambition: the yuan is not fully convertible.

Capital controls remain tight. The value of the yuan is managed, often kept artificially low to favor exports—a cornerstone of China’s economic rise. But this very strategy undermines global trust in the yuan as a freely usable international currency. Until China opens its capital account and allows the market to determine the RMB’s value, its global aspirations will remain largely symbolic.

The Global Impasse

What we’re witnessing is a global currency system trapped by two immovable giants:

The U.S. won’t sacrifice dollar dominance, even though it leads to unsustainable trade imbalances and financial vulnerabilities.
China won’t liberalize the yuan, even though it limits the currency’s international reach and credibility.

This stalemate creates volatility in emerging markets, limits monetary policy options for poorer countries, and perpetuates an unstable, lopsided global order. In a world increasingly marked by regional blocs and shifting trade alliances, this rigidity does not serve the interests of global stability.

A Call for Reform

If neither Washington nor Beijing is willing to move, perhaps it’s time for the rest of the world—especially the Global South—to push for a more balanced system. This could include:

Expanded use of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) through the IMF.
Regional currency unions.
Multilateral payment systems independent of dollar or yuan hegemony.
A diversified reserve currency basket, rather than a single dominant currency.

The world is overdue for a new currency architecture—one that reflects a more multipolar, interconnected, and equitable global economy. But until the U.S. relinquishes some control and China embraces reform, the rest of the world remains caught in a financial no-man’s-land.

And that’s a recipe for continued instability—especially for those with the least margin for error.

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption

AI-Era Social Network: Reimagined for Truth, Trust & Transformation
Game Theory and the U.S.-China Trade War: Who Blinks First?
China's Dedollarization Drive: A New Era of Currency Competition
Immigration: The Edge That Made America Great
Manufacturing the Future: Why America’s Tech Revolution Must Begin at Home
AOC 2028?

Why an AI Chatbot on Your Website Is the Perfect First Step into Business AI
How AI Can Revolutionize Small and Medium-Sized Businesses (SMBs)
The AI Revolution: How Emerging Trends Are Empowering Small and Medium-Sized Businesses

China's Dedollarization Drive: A New Era of Currency Competition

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption

China's Dedollarization Drive: A New Era of Currency Competition

The global financial landscape is undergoing a significant transformation as China intensifies its efforts to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar—a process known as dedollarization. This movement is not solely about replacing the dollar but about reshaping international trade, finance, and geopolitical influence.

China's Dedollarization Strategy

China's dedollarization approach is multifaceted, aiming to:

Promote the Renminbi (RMB) in Global Trade: China is encouraging the use of its currency in international transactions, particularly with countries in the ASEAN region. In 2024, cross-border RMB settlements in ASEAN exceeded 5.8 trillion yuan, marking a 120% increase from 2021.
Develop Alternative Financial Systems: To reduce dependence on U.S.-dominated systems like SWIFT, China has established the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), facilitating RMB-denominated transactions.
Expand the Digital Yuan (e-CNY): China's central bank digital currency (CBDC) has seen substantial growth, with over 7 trillion yuan ($986 billion) in transactions by mid-2024. The digital yuan aims to enhance the RMB's global reach and offer an alternative to dollar-based digital payments.

Progress and Challenges

While China's dedollarization efforts have gained momentum, several challenges persist:

Limited Global Adoption: Despite growth, the RMB's share in global payments remains modest. As of 2023, it accounted for 4.3% of global payments, surpassing the Japanese yen but still trailing behind the U.S. dollar (47%) and the euro (23%).
Capital Controls: China's strict capital controls hinder the RMB's liquidity and its potential as a global reserve currency.
Trust and Transparency: Global investors often express concerns about China's regulatory environment and the transparency of its financial systems, which can deter widespread adoption of the RMB.

The Role of BRICS

The BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—are collectively exploring dedollarization strategies:

BRICS Pay: An initiative to develop a decentralized payment system facilitating transactions in local currencies, aiming to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and SWIFT.
Petroyuan Discussions: Russia has proposed denominating oil trades in yuan, a move that could challenge the dollar's dominance in energy markets.
Common Currency Considerations: While discussions about a unified BRICS currency exist, significant economic disparities and differing monetary policies among member nations make this a complex endeavor.

A Multipolar Currency Future?

The global financial system is gradually shifting towards a more multipolar structure: Diversification of Reserves: Countries are increasingly diversifying their foreign exchange reserves, reducing the proportion held in U.S. dollars.

Emergence of Regional Currencies: Currencies like the euro and the RMB are gaining traction in regional trade agreements and financial transactions.
Technological Advancements: The rise of digital currencies and blockchain technology is facilitating alternative payment systems, potentially reducing the dominance of traditional currencies. While the U.S. dollar remains the predominant global reserve currency, these developments indicate a gradual move towards a more diversified and multipolar currency landscape.

In conclusion, China's dedollarization efforts, bolstered by technological innovations and strategic alliances like BRICS, are reshaping the global financial order. While the transition to a multipolar currency system will be gradual and complex, the foundations for such a shift are increasingly evident.

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption

Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Game Theory and the U.S.-China Trade War: Who Blinks First?

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption

Game Theory and the U.S.-China Trade War: Who Blinks First?

As of April 2025, the U.S.-China trade war has escalated dramatically, with the U.S. imposing tariffs up to 245% on Chinese imports, prompting retaliatory measures from China. This tit-for-tat escalation has led to significant economic disruptions globally.

Applying game theory provides a structured lens to analyze this complex standoff.

The Trade War as a Strategic Game

In game theory, the U.S.-China trade conflict resembles a classic Prisoner's Dilemma, where both parties face the temptation to defect (impose tariffs) rather than cooperate (maintain free trade). This often results in a suboptimal outcome for both.

Additionally, the situation mirrors the Game of Chicken, where each side escalates threats, hoping the other will yield first. This risky strategy can lead to mutual destruction if neither side backs down.

Strategic Moves and Countermoves

United States:

Tariff Escalation: President Trump's administration has increased tariffs to 245% on Chinese goods.
Economic Pressure: The U.S. aims to leverage its market size to force concessions from China.

China:

Retaliatory Tariffs: China has imposed its own tariffs on U.S. goods, signaling its unwillingness to capitulate.
Diversification: China is strengthening trade ties within Asia and promoting domestic consumption to mitigate reliance on the U.S. market.

Who Has the Upper Hand?

While both economies are suffering, China's centralized governance and long-term planning may provide it with greater resilience. Conversely, the U.S. faces internal political pressures and market volatility, which could compel it to seek a resolution sooner.

Potential Outcomes

Mutual De-escalation: Both nations agree to roll back tariffs and negotiate a new trade agreement.
Prolonged Stalemate: The trade war continues, leading to sustained economic harm globally.
One Side Concedes: Under mounting pressure, either the U.S. or China makes significant concessions to end the conflict.

Conclusion

The U.S.-China trade war, when viewed through the lens of game theory, highlights the complexities of international negotiations where national interests and global economic stability are at stake. While both sides have strategic reasons to maintain their positions, the mutual benefits of cooperation suggest that a negotiated resolution would be the optimal outcome.

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption

Thursday, April 10, 2025

The Trump–Xi Trade Saga: From Tariff Wars to Economic Brinkmanship

Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War

The Trump–Xi Trade Saga: From Tariff Wars to Economic Brinkmanship

Since Donald Trump first assumed the U.S. presidency in 2017, his trade negotiations with Chinese President Xi Jinping have been a defining feature of global economic relations. Spanning two non-consecutive terms, Trump's approach to China has evolved from aggressive tariff implementations to a complex interplay of economic strategies and geopolitical considerations.

First Term (2017–2021): The Genesis of the Trade War

Upon entering office, President Trump prioritized addressing the U.S. trade deficit with China, accusing Beijing of unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft. This led to a series of escalating tariffs:

In 2018, the U.S. imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods, prompting China to retaliate with duties on $110 billion of U.S. products.
The conflict culminated in the "Phase One" trade deal in January 2020, where China committed to purchasing an additional $200 billion in U.S. goods over two years. However, by the end of 2021, China had fulfilled only 58% of its commitments, falling short of the agreement's targets.

Despite these efforts, the U.S. trade deficit with China continued to grow, reaching record highs by 2020.

Second Term (2025–Present): Renewed Confrontation

Re-elected in 2024, President Trump resumed a hardline stance on China, implementing a series of aggressive trade measures:

Tariff Escalations: In early 2025, the administration imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all Chinese imports, which was subsequently increased to 20%. Additional "reciprocal tariffs" brought the effective rate on some goods to as high as 145%.
Chinese Retaliation: Beijing responded with tariffs of up to 84% on U.S. goods, suspended certain agricultural imports, and initiated investigations into American companies.
Economic Impact: These actions led to significant market volatility, with U.S. stock indices experiencing steep declines. Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen described the tariffs as the "worst self-inflicted wound" on a strong economy.

Diplomatic Dynamics and Future Prospects

Despite the escalating tensions, both leaders have expressed openness to dialogue:

Trump's Position: President Trump has indicated a willingness to negotiate, stating he would "love to make a trade deal with China."
China's Stance: Chinese officials have affirmed that "the door to talks is open," emphasizing the need for mutual respect and equality in negotiations.

However, underlying issues such as technology transfers, market access, and geopolitical rivalries continue to complicate the path to a comprehensive agreement.

Conclusion

The trade relationship between the U.S. and China under President Trump's leadership has been marked by cycles of confrontation and tentative engagement. As both nations navigate the complexities of economic interdependence and strategic competition, the outcomes of their negotiations will have far-reaching implications for global trade and economic stability.

Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War

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Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War

Friday, March 24, 2023

Ryan Hass, Xi Jinping, China, Russia

Interests, Not Ideology, Should Drive America’s Approach to China Ideologues prefer to understand the U.S.-China relationship as a contest between good versus evil. They take comfort in clean divisions between democracies versus autocracies. They like parallels between the current U.S.-China great power contest and the U.S.-Soviet Union Cold War. The United States triumphed over the Soviets in the Cold War, after all, so why not repeat the cycle again now with China, they ask. .......... invoking Cold War analogies misdiagnoses the nature of the U.S.-China relationship and creates a false hope that the United States has the capacity to compel the collapse of China. ........ Any American attempt to treat China as its existential enemy (a la the Soviet Union during the Cold War) would isolate the United States from its friends and allies, none of whom have any enthusiasm for joining an anti-China containment coalition. ....... Not even America’s closest partners in Europe or Asia would sign up for a role in erecting such a global economic partition. ......... Trade data does not support arguments that China is seeking to bifurcate the global economy, though.
Over 150 countries view China as their largest trading partner, making China the world’s largest trading power.
Even as Beijing pursues more statist economic policies at home, it continues to look for opportunities to gain leverage by locking in other countries’ dependence upon China for future economic growth. ......... a recognition that the bilateral relationship is deeply competitive. ......... Both countries also are battling each other to dominate the frontiers of innovation in technological fields that will define the coming century, such as quantum computing, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and clean energy. ............. bilateral trade in goods hit a record in 2022, nearing $700 billion ........ by virtue of their positions as the world’s two most powerful countries, the United States and China also face planetary interdependence. From climate change to the global economy and pandemics, they both are harmed or helped by their (in)ability to pool capabilities to confront shared threats.......... The sooner leaders in Washington and Beijing embrace the framework of competitive interdependence for understanding the nature of U.S.-China relations, the better they will be able to compete without resort to conflict. The framework pushes both sides to coexist within a heightened state of competition, not out of amity but rather a sober recognition of the parameters within which the relationship operates. The hard truth is that neither the United States nor China would be able to achieve their national ambitions if they end up in conflict with each other. ........... the goal of strategy is to minimize risks and maximize benefits. The current trajectory of U.S.-China relations is moving in the opposite direction. Risks of conflict are rising, while benefits from the relationship for American and Chinese citizens are receding. ......... a degree of strategic maturity that has been in short supply in recent years ......... The current downward trajectory of the relationship, if not arrested, will continue to generate sharp incidents of growing intensity. Expecting that U.S. and Chinese leaders would manage all such future incidents wisely and calmly requires the triumph of hope over reason. ........ What is needed now is clear-eyed, evidence-based, interest-driven thinking about how the world’s two most powerful countries can compete without resort to conflict, both now and in the future.

Mr. Hass. I read some of your comments about the Xi visit. There are some questions I would like to ask you. May I?
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) March 22, 2023

2/ I suspect China's leaders feel less isolated on world stage than many in West suspect. Saudi Arabia reportedly plans to host Xi for visit. No BRICS countries have condemned Russia's invasion. Wang Yi reportedly may visit India soon. Chinese outreach to Global South increasing.
— Ryan Hass (@ryanl_hass) March 21, 2022

3/ This raises the premium for Western unity in addressing China on its approach to Russia/Ukraine. Planned April 1 EU-China Summit will be an important event. Would be helpful for Beijing to hear a message from EU leaders that rhymes with what Biden conveyed to Xi last week.
— Ryan Hass (@ryanl_hass) March 21, 2022

4/ Important for Beijing to hear consistent message from US + EU on need to 1) avoid backfilling sanctions, 2) refrain from sending arms to Russia, 3) contribute meaningfully to relief of humanitarian suffering in Europe, and 4) support efforts to hasten termination of conflict.
— Ryan Hass (@ryanl_hass) March 21, 2022

5/ US and EU should not offer concessions to China to compel caution and prudence on Russia/Ukraine, but should make clear in a matter-of-fact way that PRC's decisions now will determine what range of trajectories for China's relations with West will be available in the future.
— Ryan Hass (@ryanl_hass) March 21, 2022

6/ Beijing’s aspiration to become a geo-economic power requires functional relations with West. Beijing has its own incentives to avoid full rupture with West over Russia/Ukraine. Self-sufficiency and deepening ties with developing world are important, but not a substitute. END.
— Ryan Hass (@ryanl_hass) March 21, 2022

Trade balance of Brazil and China 2021 was 125 billion dollars, Brazil with the USA and Europe was 120 billion dollars.According to eurostat in 2021, China has overtaken the US as the biggest partner in the EU.
— Pedro Lacerda 🇧🇷 (@pedrolacerdass) March 22, 2022

A month ago, it was the US and friends playing Olympic boycott against a “genocidal regime.”

Now it’s how China’s actions will determine “relations with West.”

Global South eyeing China to be a leader.
West looking at China to get in line, or else.

Hard choice?
— Betelnutgeuse (@Betelnutgeuse) March 22, 2022

https://t.co/3S66BLiXgS
— Leo (@Leonew3721) March 22, 2022

What a collection of fantasy of Western Departmentalism
— 🇨🇳🫧希小瑞GoDRic🫧🏳️‍🌈☭ (@SheraxGoDRic) March 22, 2022

You offer no concessions and expect China to cooperate with you? That’s not how diplomacy works.
— Bryant Z (@Coffeecurd) March 21, 2022

Speculation that China might invade Taiwan to distract from mounting domestic challenges - or because Chinese leaders imagine that their window of opportunity to seize the island is closing - is not just wrong, but dangerous. Here's why: https://t.co/mawriqRj1e THREAD
— Jessica Chen Weiss (@jessicacweiss) March 21, 2023

I think @jamescrabtree gets the dilemma for US strategy in Asia right. US is under pressure simultaneously to maximize deterrence while minimizing provocation. He also is right to point out that PRC and others’ actions cast long shadow on regional stability as well. https://t.co/TMaqiFzKPd
— Ryan Hass (@ryanl_hass) March 22, 2023

As Xi’s visit to Russia makes clear, Beijing remains firmly committed to growing its relationship with Moscow. https://t.co/a5Vc5TxuEs
— The Brookings Institution (@BrookingsInst) March 20, 2023

1/ This feels like an instance when @SecBlinken is right on the merits but wrong on the message. China wants to frame itself as committed to peace and the US as supporting prolongation of war. Better to frame in affirmative that US…https://t.co/0rqEkTahFt via @Barronsonline
— Ryan Hass (@ryanl_hass) March 20, 2023

3/…to restrain Russian aggression, commit to protecting principle of territorial integrity, etc.

US could draw more support and have greater effect by making affirmative case for what constructive PRC role would look like than by warning others not to be duped by PRC. END
— Ryan Hass (@ryanl_hass) March 20, 2023

Looking forward to the opportunity to contribute to and learn from this conference in Singapore this week. Please join us if you are in town and interested. https://t.co/zGQtUzQIcQ
— Ryan Hass (@ryanl_hass) March 20, 2023

Impressive chart - US economy over-performing pre-COVID trend and Chinese economy underperforming it.

This chart reinforces need for modesty in real-time forecasting of impacts of major events on major power competition. https://t.co/7G3xPNzFFi
— Ryan Hass (@ryanl_hass) March 19, 2023

⁦@ewong⁩ and ⁦@StevenErlanger⁩ break down Xi’s likely aims for his upcoming visit to Moscow and how such efforts will be received in US and Europe. https://t.co/v1HdeqJBeX
— Ryan Hass (@ryanl_hass) March 19, 2023

US-PRC relations are off track. Risks of conflict are rising, while benefits from the relationship for American and Chinese citizens are receding. Ideological arguments don't carry answers. Evidence-based, interest-driven thinking is needed.https://t.co/cKuSIlMmmx
— Ryan Hass (@ryanl_hass) March 17, 2023

Thoughtful round-up of key takeaways from China's National People's Congress on a range of issues by members of the CSIS Trustee Chair team. https://t.co/3nYDg4t51H
— Ryan Hass (@ryanl_hass) March 17, 2023

NEW: US importers bore almost the entire burden of tariffs Donald Trump placed on more than $300 billion in Chinese goods, a report by an independent US government agency found.

USTR is currently reviewing if the 301 duties should remain.@apgmonteiro https://t.co/xPsn4SACZj
— Eric Martin (@EMPosts) March 15, 2023

Sharing a range of perspectives from across Brookings on the significance of this week's AUKUS announcement.

Featuring: @brucebrookings @MichaelEOHanlon @AmyJNelsonPhD @ConStelz @ProfTalmadge @AndrewIYeo Tom Stefanick, myselfhttps://t.co/eYknVReZNQ via @BrookingsInst
— Ryan Hass (@ryanl_hass) March 15, 2023

China as Peacemaker in the Ukraine War? The U.S. and Europe Are Skeptical Chinese officials say Xi Jinping’s upcoming trip to Moscow is a peace mission. But U.S. and European officials say he aims to bolster Vladimir V. Putin....... And even a call by Mr. Xi for a cease-fire would amount to an effort to strengthen Mr. Putin’s battlefield position, they say, by leaving Russia in control of more territory than when the invasion began. ...... A cease-fire now would be “effectively the ratification of Russian conquest,” John Kirby, a White House spokesman, said on Friday. “It would in effect recognize Russia’s gains and its attempt to conquer its neighbor’s territory by force, allowing Russian troops to continue to occupy sovereign Ukrainian territory.” ......... for Chinese officials to come out of the meeting claiming “we’re the ones calling for an end to the fighting and nobody else is.” ....... In an article published in a Russian newspaper on Sunday, Mr. Xi wrote that China had pursued “efforts to promote reconciliation and peace negotiations.” ......... Skepticism of one of Mr. Xi’s stated goals pervades thinking in Washington and some European capitals. American intelligence agencies have concluded that relations between China and Russia have deepened during the war, even as Russia has become isolated from many other nations. ........ The two countries continue to do joint military exercises, and Beijing has joined Moscow in regularly denouncing the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. China remains one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil, which has helped Moscow finance its invasion. ......... Chinese officials have at no point condemned the invasion. ........... “Western countries led by the United States have implemented all-around containment, encirclement and suppression of China, which has brought unprecedented severe challenges to our country’s development.” ....... But China remains firmly anchored in the global economy, and Mr. Xi and his aides want to avoid being seen as malign actors on the world stage, especially in the eyes of Europe, a major trade partner. ....... Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin have a strong personal affinity and, as of this week’s state visit, have met 40 times since Mr. Xi became China’s leader in 2012. Mr. Putin called Mr. Xi a “dear old friend” in an article published in a Chinese newspaper on Sunday, saying the two enjoyed the “warmest relationship.” ......... China’s recent mediation of an initial diplomatic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran had boosted notions of China as a peacemaker. ....... China is not a close partner of either country and has a very specific economic interest in preventing the two from escalating their hostilities — it buys large amounts of oil from both. .......... Mr. Xi has not talked to Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, since the war began, much less asked for his perspective on peace talks. ........... Mr. Zelensky has said he would enter peace talks only if Mr. Putin withdrew his troops from Ukrainian territory. That includes the Crimean Peninsula, which the Russian military seized in 2014, and the Donbas region, where that same year Russian troops stoked a pro-Russia separatist insurgency. ........... Qin Gang, the foreign minister of China, spoke by phone with Dmytro Kuleba, the foreign minister of Ukraine, and stressed that the warring sides should “resume peace talks” and “return to the track of political settlement” ......... Analysts in Washington concur. “I don’t think China can serve as a fulcrum on which any Ukraine peace process could move,” said Ryan Hass, a former U.S. diplomat to China and White House official who is a scholar at the Brookings Institution. ......... Mr. Hass added that China would have a role as part of a signing or guaranteeing group for any eventual peace deal and would be critical to Ukraine’s reconstruction. “I believe Zelensky understands this, which is why he has been willing to exercise so much patience with China and with Xi personally,” he said........... they saw it as a further sign of China’s friendship if not alliance with Russia, as well as an effort by China to present itself as a mediator in the war. ....... He suggested that Washington wanted the war to continue to further weaken Russia. “Some forces might not want to see peace talks materialize,” he said. “They don’t care about the life and death of Ukrainians or the harms on Europe. They might have strategic goals larger than Ukraine itself. This warfare must not continue.” ........ many European officials, like their Ukrainian and American counterparts, are convinced that early talks on a peace settlement will be at the expense of Ukrainian sovereignty. ......... “It is not a peace plan, but principles that they shared” .

Japan’s Prime Minister Becomes Latest G7 Leader to Visit Ukraine Fumio Kishida, who has been seeking a more active role for his country in international affairs, made an unannounced trip to meet with Ukraine’s president. ......... Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has galvanized Japan’s foreign and military policy, stoking concerns about the costs of geopolitical instability. Policymakers and the public alike worry that the country would be unprepared to handle a crisis in its own backyard, whether North Korean aggression or an attempt by China to take the self-ruled island of Taiwan. ....... Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, said the prime minister’s show of solidarity with Mr. Zelensky was in contrast to the partnership between Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin, calling the alignment between the Chinese and Russian leaders “nefarious.” ........ “Prime Minister Kishida stands with freedom, and Xi stands with a war criminal,” the ambassador wrote. ....... A spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry responded to news of the visit by saying Japan should “help de-escalate the situation instead of the opposite.” ....... The war has raised concerns about Japan’s reliance on other countries for food and energy, most of which it imports. Prices for commodities such as natural gas jumped after the invasion, putting cost pressures on Japan’s production of electricity. In response, the country has pushed for closer relationships with its allies and broken a decades-long deadlock in military spending as it plans to double its budget over the next five years. ....... Mr. Kishida embarked for Ukraine from India, where he had met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on issues including protecting freedom of navigation in the Pacific. ........ In a speech on Monday at the Indian Council of World Affairs, a research institute in New Delhi, Mr. Kishida said that Russia’s war had driven a “paradigm shift” in global affairs. ..... “Russia’s aggression against Ukraine oblige us to face the most fundamental challenge: defending peace,” he said, according to prepared remarks. .

pic.twitter.com/TNgATEuHpe
— ラーム・エマニュエル駐日米国大使 (@USAmbJapan) March 21, 2023

Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Xi In Moscow

Call me anytime: Zelenskyy plays the long game with Xi Jinping Ukraine is conspicuously diplomatic in its dealings with Vladimir Putin’s top ally.
What Zelenskyy should know before he talks with Xi
Russia and China want to disrupt the world order, NSC spokesperson says “They’d like to rewrite the rules of the game globally,” John Kirby said.
Xi Jinping visits Moscow to meet Putin (March 20)
Blinken slams Xi for providing ‘diplomatic cover’ to Putin during Moscow visit
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin meet in Moscow, discuss Chinese peace plan for Ukraine Washington and its allies are skeptical that Xi can be an honest broker; US urges China and Russia to ‘respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity’ ....... The two leaders meet for 4.5 hours, and Russian media reports that Putin ‘went out into the street’ to see Xi off as they parted, a rare move for him .
Xi Jinping says China ready to ‘stand guard over world order’ on Moscow visit Chinese leader expected to position himself as peacemaker but US condemns Xi for providing ‘diplomatic cover’ for atrocities in Ukraine .
Putin rips West as trying to stifle Russia, China's 'development,’ while Xi arrives in Moscow
Putin and Xi prepare for second day of talks in Moscow as Japanese PM heads to Ukraine Chinese and Russian leaders to discuss Ukraine in formal talks after friendly dinner, while Fumio Kishida meets Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv .
China bills itself as a Ukraine peacemaker but US says Xi’s talks with Putin provide ‘diplomatic cover’ for war
Xi: China's proposal on Ukraine reflects unity of global views Xi has been seeking to present China as a global peacemaker and project it as a responsible great power.

🇨🇳🇷🇺visit. The formula for the successful implementation of China’s “Peace Plan”. The first and major point is the capitulation or withdrawal of the russian occupation troops from 🇺🇦 territory in accordance with the norms of international law and the UN Charter.
— Oleksiy Danilov (@OleksiyDanilov) March 20, 2023

President Xi Jinping Meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin

🔗Full text: https://t.co/fJTDQWEWCx pic.twitter.com/GBRJsH5pf5
— Hua Chunying 华春莹 (@SpokespersonCHN) March 21, 2023

New international order is here pic.twitter.com/PAvBiwwyJk
— Carl Zha (@CarlZha) March 20, 2023

President Xi Jinping: No country is superior to others, no model of governance is universal, and no single country should dictate the international order. The common interest of all humankind is in a world that is united and peaceful, rather than divided and volatile. pic.twitter.com/Zrp9P7MekA
— XIE Yongjun 解勇军 (@XIEYongjun_CHN) March 20, 2023

🇺🇸☠️Damn it! It must be on American terms https://t.co/WhcSTQ6hSy
— FatFinger™ (@longshortgamma) March 20, 2023

After invading Iraq, the US has gone into the conflicts in Syria and Libya and continued to peddle the US model of democracy across the world. There is reason to ask: who will be the next victim of US hegemony for another 20 years? pic.twitter.com/b9QBjvpKHT
— Spokesperson发言人办公室 (@MFA_China) March 20, 2023

20 years on, George W. Bush’s promise of democracy in Iraq and Middle East falls short the main arguments for the invasion: that there were weapons of mass destruction. ....... “it turned out that the sourcing was inaccurate and wrong and in some cases deliberately misleading.” ........ “The establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a watershed event in the global democratic revolution,” Bush said in November 2003. He also said that the U.S. would be pursuing a “forward strategy of freedom in the Middle East.” ........ In 2003, there was indeed, as Bush noted, a “freedom deficit” in the Middle East, where repressive authoritarian regimes dominated the region. Yet, in spite of tremendous upheaval in the Middle East over the past two decades, many authoritarian regimes remain deeply entrenched. ......... The non-profit group Freedom House evaluates countries in terms of democratic institutions and whether they have free and fair elections, as well as people’s civil rights and liberties, such as freedom of speech, freedom of assembly and a free press. Freedom House rates each country and its level of democracy on a scale from 2 to 14, from “mostly free” to “least free.” ............ In 2003, the average Freedom House score for an Arab League member was 11.45 – far more authoritarian than the global average of 6.75 at the time. ......... the Freedom House report in 2003 classified a little over 46% of all countries as “free,” but no country in the Arab League met that threshold. ......... The fall of Hussein’s regime in April 2003 produced a nominally more democratic Iraq. But after fighting a series of sectarian insurgencies in Iraq over an eight-year period, the U.S. ultimately left behind a weak and deeply divided government. .......... Rivalry between Iraq’s three main groups – the Sunni and Shiite Muslims as well as the Kurds, the largest ethnic minority in the country – paralyzed early attempts at political reorganization. ........
in 2023, Freedom House continues to score Iraq as “Not Free” in its measure of democracy.
........ In 2014, widespread protest movements associated with the Arab Spring toppled dictators in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya. In other countries, such as Morocco and Jordan, monarchs were able to offer concessions to people and remain in control by delaying public spending cuts, for example, and replacing government ministers. ........ In Egypt, the military has reasserted itself and the country has slid steadily back to authoritarianism. In Yemen, the political vaccum created by the protests marked the start of a devastating civil war. ........ The average Freedom House democracy score for members of the Arab League is today 11.45 — the same as it was on the eve of the Iraq invasion. ........... It is hard to know if a different approach might have yielded better results. ...... the vision of an Iraq as an inspiration for a democratic transformation of the Middle East has not come to pass. .

The collapse of major US banks leads to bills calling for more regulation bipartisan-backed deregulation in 2018 led to the banks’ collapse ......... lax government policy that included overspending – which Barr says, fueled inflation, as well as long-term low interest rates – not deregulation, was behind the banks’ failures. ........ banks with US$50 billion in assets be subject to strict standards ....... But the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief and Consumer Protection Act of 2018 loosened the standards, raising the asset threshold to $250 billion, meaning fewer banks were under strict controls. ........ During 2022, Silvergate’s deposit base grew dramatically, almost doubling its assets to $210 billion. But the bank did not have either the administrative capacity or market demand to lend out all of the money, as banks normally do. So, it invested the excess deposits in Treasury bonds and mortgage investment products. ......... Industry leaders, among them Greg Becker, CEO of Silicon Valley Bank, lobbied Congress in 2015 to roll back some of the Dodd-Frank Act provisions. ........ These standards were arguably designed to specifically prevent and address the type of circumstances that triggered these recent bank failures: multiple failures and contagion in the financial system, market panic, deposit runs and liquidity crisis. .

Pages

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

China and the United States: A Tale of Two Political Systems

How the Chinese Communist Party Works

How the US Political System Works

Western Criticism of China: Is It Fair?

Chinese Criticism of the US: What Do They Say?

Comparing Strengths and Weaknesses

Conclusion: Two Systems Under Pressure

Thursday, April 17, 2025

The Dollar’s Double-Edged Sword

China’s Currency Conundrum

The Global Impasse

A Call for Reform

China's Dedollarization Drive: A New Era of Currency Competition

China's Dedollarization Strategy

Progress and Challenges

The Role of BRICS

A Multipolar Currency Future?

Wednesday, April 16, 2025

The Trade War as a Strategic Game

Strategic Moves and Countermoves

Who Has the Upper Hand?

Potential Outcomes

Conclusion

Thursday, April 10, 2025

First Term (2017–2021): The Genesis of the Trade War

Second Term (2025–Present): Renewed Confrontation

Diplomatic Dynamics and Future Prospects

Conclusion

Friday, March 24, 2023

Over 150 countries view China as their largest trading partner, making China the world’s largest trading power.

Tuesday, March 21, 2023

in 2023, Freedom House continues to score Iraq as “Not Free” in its measure of democracy.