Showing posts with label communism. Show all posts
Showing posts with label communism. Show all posts

Sunday, May 28, 2023

Saturday, November 16, 2019

Hong Kong: What Would Dialogue Look Like?

I want the two sides in Hong Kong to talk: the protestors out in the streets, and the Carrie Lam side. That dialogue is not going to be a grand ideological debate about the two warring ideologies of the past century: capitalism and communism.

America does not have capitalism. Capitalism is a market economy where there is near perfect competition. In the American economy, you can find large pockets of monopoly power. Why do you think Americans pay so much more for their internet access and mobile data? Because there is not enough competition. That is only one example of many.

China has relentlessly injected the market into its economy since 1990. China has been the biggest beneficiary of the collapse of communism in the former Soviet Union. It allowed them to gradually ditch the command economy. China is not communism the way Leonid Brezhnev understood communism to be.


I believe the two ideologies are moving towards a fusion. And it does not have to be bloody fusion. There need not be war, only civil debate, and discussion. I look at the 2020 election campaign in the US and I look at what China has already started in Shenzen in the form a political experiment, and I see we are moving towards a fusion. And the protestors in the streets of Hong Kong are hardly best equipped to lead that conversation. They can be part of the conversation, but they are not in any position to lead. For one, they have not been talking much.

Chinese Troops Invade Hong Kong (NOT)
Is Hong Kong Moving Towards A Showdown?
Hong Kong Police Losing Its Mind
I Read Don Junior's Book
The Hong Kong Shenzen Political Song And Dance Could Benefit The World
Hong Kong: The Situation Escalates
China Has Already Started Political Reforms: In Shenzen
Thoughts On The Middle East

I read somewhere, in response to the last protests, Beijing reportedly said, okay, you can elect your own Chief Executive as long we get to decide who those two will be. It is said in America about 50,000 people participate in the "money primary." And once somebody passes that hurdle then the race is opened to the ordinary American voters. What Beijing wants in Hong Kong, the 50,000 money people already seem to have in America.

In recent weeks I have taken great interest in the Middle East as a region, and in the UAE in particular, for business reasons. And being a political person that I am, I have also taken much interest in the politics. I knew the UAE was a monarchy, but there was a lot that I did not know.

But I have also had intimate knowledge at another level: people from my home village, for instance.

When I was attending high school in Kathmandu, at a school founded and run by the British, the best school in Nepal, we were taught there are rich countries and there are poor countries, but thank God for all the aid the rich countries give, the poor are catching up. Then I attended college in America. And the talk gradually shifted to, aid will not do it, we need trade, not aid. And we ended up with Donald Trump, who thinks the entire world is being unfair to America. But remittance from the Gulf countries is the only thing that has really mattered to the people in my home village. Aid and trade have been close to zero as factors.

And that makes me think. I open-mindedly ask questions.

Monday, September 23, 2019

Capitalism's Own Propaganda Machine

Look at this.

News: Hong Kong, Vancouver, Diaspora Nationalism

Over a hundred million Chinese travel outside China every year. And, out of their own seeming free will, they travel back. China, obviously, is no North Korea. A lot of them will tell you, they support their government. They will line up arguments in its defense. What is going on? It is conditioning. And it is so total.

There is a similar conditioning in America. It is capitalist conditioning. The corporations that so own the political process, that so own the media, have also similarly conditioned 300 million Americans.

China needs a heavy dose of democracy. China needs to open up. That is the only way it will avoid the middle income trap. The only way China can hope to become a high tech superpower that it aspires to be is if there is free speech in China.

America also needs a fair dose of democracy. Right now it is not a democracy. America is corporate socialism. It is a corporate welfare state. It is a political system designed to work for the biggest corporation and its richest citizens. Not even the top 1% but 1% of that 1%.

The CCP has a political monopoly in China that needs to be broken. Similarly, the stranglehold of the 0.01% in America has to be broken. Then America will become a democracy.

There is need for triangulation. We want post-capitalism. We want post-communism. We want democracy. We want a market economy devoid of monopolies and oligarchies and one party ownerships.

Hong Kong should not try to imitate America. Hong Kong needs to show America the way.

Saturday, September 14, 2019

Hong Kong: Antennae Problem?



Hong Kong’s extradition law mess: don’t blame Beijing, blame naive Carrie Lam In underestimating the pushback from Hongkongers from all walks of life, the chief executive has shown a lack of political antennae ..... She could have avoided much of this quagmire had her government not bypassed proper procedures and, instead, consulted the public ...... Blaming “foreign forces” for causing havoc in Hong Kong has always been the official mainland media’s default position but the Hong Kong government’s current crisis is largely of its own making. ....... no matter how the crisis ends, no one is a winner and Hong Kong as a whole loses – its reputation, the independence of its judiciary and the confidence of the international community in its status as a leading financial centre. ....... There has been intense speculation in Hong Kong and elsewhere that Lam pushed for the law at the request of Beijing. She herself strongly denied this and said she had not received any instruction from Beijing and the bill was not initiated by the central government. ....... This is probably true. .......... would also make it much easier for the central government to hunt down and extradite businessmen and corrupt officials who often hole up in Hong Kong after they fall foul of the mainland authorities......... the extraordinary pushback from Hong Kong people from all walks of life, particularly from the usually docile but powerful business community in the city, over their

deeply held fears and concerns about the lack of rule of law on the mainland.

..... Trained as a career civil servant, Lam, along with senior officials in her cabinet, seems to lack political sophistication and acute political antennae. ....... In the name of urgency, the government bypassed the proper procedures and process and failed to allow public consultation over the proposed law. In contrast, some cynics pointed out that in April, the government launched a three-month consultation on how to better protect animals and ensure owners will have their dogs and cats fed, cared for and given adequate medical attention....... With Taiwan’s presidential election cycle already heating up, both the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and a potential opposition candidate – the electronics tycoon Terry Gou – have both used Hong Kong’s mass protests as proof that the mainland’s “one country, two systems” formula has failed. ....... Beijing has expressed full support for Lam’s efforts and so long as the pro-government legislators, who command a majority in the local legislature, stay united, the bill has a high chance of passing.




Xi Jinping’s speech shows China’s Communist Party is still haunted by the fall of the Soviet Union Xi’s warning of the long struggle ahead between socialism and capitalism is being circulated as the People’s Republic reaches its 70th anniversary – a mark the USSR never reached ....... Chinese leaders’ speeches to their inner circles, particularly those on sensitive issues, are always guarded with the utmost secrecy. ....... Citing Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, Xi said socialism would triumph over capitalism but cited Deng Xiaoping as saying that it would be a long historical process, which would probably take

several dozens of generations

...... He warned that the collapse of the Soviet Union served as a painful lesson for the party. ..... he floated a new narrative to bolster the legitimacy of the party by arguing that one could not use the period following reform and opening up to negate the period before it, nor vice versa. ....... he recognised that Western developed countries would maintain long-term economic, technological, and military advantages and China must be fully prepared for the two systems – socialism in its primary stage and a more advanced capitalism – to cooperate and struggle for a long time to come. ........ As China must learn and borrow from capitalism, it must face the reality that people would compare the strong points of Western developed countries with the shortcomings of China’s socialist development and be critical, Xi said...... Xi’s speech was previously circulated only among party officials with county level ranking and above....... its leaders are still smarting from the collapse of the then 69-year-old Soviet Union in 1991.




China’s media companies are failing at home, failing abroad and failing Xi Jinping China is spending billions in an effort to tell its stories to the world ........ The explosion, which occurred shortly before 3pm on March 21, initially killed 62 people and injured 640 others, but failed to make it to the front page of the People’s Daily the very next day – or any other page for that matter, the last time I checked. The death toll now stands at 78 and is expected to rise. ...... At a time when the official media is at full throttle in worshipping Xi, any news about the president takes pride of place on the front page while any other item, no matter how newsworthy, must give way......... on March 22, Xi, in an answer to a question from Roberto Fico, president of the Italian Chamber of Deputies, about his feelings as the Chinese president, said that he would be selfless and determined to devote himself to serving the Chinese people. .......

the inherent nature of China’s propaganda machine determines that its primary target audience is the Chinese leaders and officials at various levels of the government

– not least because they control the budgets and careers of Chinese state media workers. So long as officials are happy with the coverage, the job is done........ Chinese propaganda officials, who are not accountable to their own media, have little idea of how to engage overseas journalists and respond tactfully to their criticisms. Previously, when their campaign to shape China’s image was largely defensive, they simply ignored criticisms or seethed with anger behind closed doors. ....... Now as the Chinese leadership makes no bones about its ambitions for world leadership, propaganda officials are more forthright about criticism in the overseas media but in a much less tactful way ....... either out of ignorance or arrogance, they thought they knew what the foreign audience wanted to hear and read about China, but in fact they did not. So their products are often found wanting, reeking of nothing but propaganda...... in the parlance of cynical journalists at the state media, they often liken their filing of stories to “sending things into the sky” – showing they have done their job.




Chinese must live with a dead Baidu, as Google’s return looks doomed

China’s sophisticated internet censorship regime has blocked numerous overseas websites, including the South China Morning Post

, and search engines and social media platforms including Google, Twitter and YouTube........ there is a widespread perception that the Great Firewall could be one of the few red lines on which China is unlikely to budge....... China’s digital barriers are facing increasing pressure from within as Chinese businesses, academics, and intellectuals have been increasingly vocal about the negative impact of the Great Firewall on the country’s economy, academic research, technological innovation, and its competitiveness in attracting overseas companies and talents.......

Baidu, long a source of bitter complaints and frustration among Chinese internet users for its poor quality search results

and questionable advertising practices, was the target of renewed public anger in January......... Google’s exit from China in 2010, triggered by China’s increasing online censorship, has further cemented Baidu’s lead. Before its exit, Google commanded about 30 per cent of China’s market share, trailing Baidu but providing healthy competition and a far better alternative for Chinese internet users seeking high quality search results........

as Baidu’s quality of service has declined rapidly over the past few years, the public clamour for Google’s return has become louder.

....... China’s academics and businessmen alike have argued the country’s severe restrictions on cross-border data flows – including slow cross-border internet speed and the inability to access global online tools like Google – have damaged China’s competitiveness and innovation. ..... Back in March 2017,

Luo Fuhe

, a prominent academic and a vice-chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the country’s top consultative body, caused quite a stir by publicly releasing a proposal urging the Chinese government to ease internet restrictions to enable faster access to overseas news and academic websites and search engines.........

Anyone who has tried to search for English-language information on Baidu should know how lousy its service is.

........ AmCham China, which represents American businesses in the country, said more than 90 per cent of respondents felt slow cross-border internet speeds and the blocking of online resources harmed their competitiveness as well as their operations. ........ the US media suggesting that Google was planning a return to China and had been working on a censored version of its search engine, code-named Dragonfly..... even a filtered version of Google would be much better than Baidu.


Friday, September 13, 2019

Hong Kong: A Crisis For Capitalism As Much As Communism

Hong Kong 2019: This Is 1989 For Asia
Hong Kong Should Take The Plunge
Universal Basic Income (aka Freedom Dividend) Is Not Free Money
Could Andrew Yang Become President?
Hong Kong Protests: The World Should Not Watch A Possible Massacre

The knee jerk way to interpret what is happening in Hong Kong is, well, China wrong, America right. Both are wrong. The 20th-century dichotomy no longer explains aspirations. Capitalism is in crisis in America. Communism is in crisis in China. And the trade war between the two puts the whole world in crisis mode. Something fundamental is not working. There is a need for a rethink.

A big reason capitalism is not working in Hong Kong is because the Hong Kong capitalists control half the legislature. That is not sustainable. You can't have a Chief Executive who answers to Beijing but not to the ordinary citizens of Hong Kong.

That is where you start.

But then you quickly have to move to things like Universal Basic Income.

There is an acute housing crisis in Hong Kong. It is a big city problem. Singapore does it much better. Hong Kong can learn from Singapore. But it does not have the option to learn unless it can elect its own leaders.

Election day should be a public holiday. People should be able to vote from their phones. Or maybe no holiday, and a week-long voting period.

Citizens also have the responsibility to regularly meet in-person to engage in political dialogue.

Hong Kong is showing the way for the 100 biggest cities in the world. This is a turning point in world history. New Yorkers should also march. Not for Hong Kong, but for New York. Demand UBI. Demand voting rights for all residents, citizen or not.



Hong Kong’s protests are just the tip of the iceberg: capitalism is in crisis across the globe While Hong Kong is embroiled in unprecedented social and political upheaval, a silent revolution is unfolding in the capitalist heartland of the world...... This transition from “shareholder capitalism” to “stakeholder capitalism” is more than semantics. ..... The lopsided emphasis on maximising profits has been responsible for a disproportionate share of social, environmental and political problems in contemporary society – notably, extreme economic inequality, distortion of human needs, environmental destruction and climate change, corporate tax evasion and, above all, the integration of economic power with political power...... Hong Kong has for a long time had one of the highest Gini coefficients in the world, rising from 0.533 in 2006 to 0.539 in 2016. The number of poor households reached 530,000, with more than 1.3 million people living in poverty (over 15 per cent of the population)...... In May 2018, the total net worth of the wealthiest 21 tycoons amount to HK$1.83 trillion, approximately the same as Hong Kong’s fiscal reserves. But, for low-income workers, real wages have only increased 12.3 per cent in the past decade....... In a city in which seven out of the 10 richest people are in the real estate business, financial assets are the major source of income polarisation........ Hong Kong’s case is special in that its government is not accountable to the populace; Lam was “elected” by a 1,200-strong committee and is expected to follow Beijing’s line....... These same issues plague the capitalist West. Because of the presence of a nominal democratic system, some of the mass revolt has found expression in outcomes such as Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as US president, as well as the Yellow Vest movement in France. ....... their fate is bound up with the fate of “capitalist” development in China, which is also heading towards a major crisis...... There is a huge amount of repressed unrest on the mainland; it is just not visible because of the powerful social control mechanisms in place: China’s budget for maintaining social stability is already greater than its defence budget and it is still growing....... All this points to the urgency of reinventing capitalism.



Trump on thinner political ice than Xi in trade war
Xi brings in 'firefighter' Wang Qishan in bid to calm Hong Kong

News: Hong Kong, Plan B, Mainland, Bubble Tea Summit

Hong Kong 2019: This Is 1989 For Asia

And the best route is not the route that was taken in Russia in 1989. The collapse was spectacular, true. That was good news for the victor. But that saw a decade of economic contraction for Russia, and falling living standards. There was half baked democracy. The mafia swooped in. There are people who argue Russia is not even a democracy.

That is why my first choice is one country, two systems. But it does require that Beijing makes peace with full-fledged democracy in Hong Kong. If not, two countries, one system, democracy, might become the new slogan.

The US political system is bubbling with complaints about how things are. Money is too influential in American politics. Maybe Hong Kong does not want a copycat system. In fact, Hong Kong seems to have a bigger money in politics problem. The Hong Kong billionaires put the Koch brothers to shame.

And that is why I think the Hong Kong protestors need to become politically organized and engage in intelligent debates and discussions on the kind of political system they might want. Maybe they can build something new. Maybe they can build something that progressives in America dream about.

Freedom has to ring. But the call for freedom can not be naive. This ongoing protest movement in Hong Kong should seek inspiration from Eastern Europe in 1989, true. But it also should learn. The post-1989 transition in Russia could have been handled much, much better.

Voices inside the Chinese Communist Party that might have democratic aspirations need to rise. They need to make a case that the one country, two systems that was promised to Hong Kong must be delivered. That 2047 is not when Hong Kong becomes like China, but that is when China becomes like Hong Kong, if not earlier.

Boris Yeltsin was a member of the communist party in Russia. Who are the Boris Yeltsins of China?

Let Boris be an inspiration. But let him also be a warning. He messed up the transition big time.

Xi Jinping having declared himself president for life might have been the moment when the Chinese Communist Party signed its death warrant. The 10-year term that was in place was perhaps a better arrangement. Now the Chinese have a system where you can not challenge that one guy. This system will break, but it will not bend. Looks like it will break.

I know so little about internal Chinese politics, I don't seem to know the name of any other politician besides Xi. Okay, there is that Vice President guy who leads the trade talks. And the Foreign Minister. But other than that, I don't seem to have names and faces. Who are these people?










Wednesday, September 04, 2019

Hong Kong Problem: Unholy Alliance Of Capitalists And Communists



I don't know the details. So forgive if I get something wrong. I will stand corrected. But it is my understanding that something like half the Hong Kong legislature is not directly elected by Hong Kong citizens. These are business people, rich people, tycoons, industrialists, billionaires, real estate moguls, who enter the legislature through some kind of a back door that they negotiated in 1997 when Britain left. And these unelected people are the most reliable supporters of Beijing in Hong Kong. Go figure. It is like, there is a patch of no man's land somewhere in Latin America where Islamist terrorists and white nationalist terrorists both go to get trained.

And Carrie Lam is obviously not elected by the people of Hong Kong or she would have accepted the demands on day one. She is appointed by Beijing. That is ridiculous. That is not my idea of one country, two systems.

All members of the Hong Kong legislature need to be directly elected by Hong Kong citizens. The Chief Executive of Hong Kong needs to be directly elected by Hong Kong citizens. That would be an affirmation of one country, two systems.

2047 is a deadline. That is when all of China becomes like Hong Kong. Hong Kong does not become like China.


Carrie Lam, What Took You So Long?
Hong Kong And Beijing: The Water Will Break The Dam
Hong Kong Chief Executive Can't Choose To Quit
Steve Bannon, Hong Kong, 1989, And The CCP
Hong Kong Protests: The World Should Not Watch A Possible Massacre
Why Hong Kong Needs A Directly Elected Chief Executive
The Hong Kong Protest Lacks Political Sophistication
Hong Kong: The Shenzen Angle
Could Andrew Yang Become President?

Tuesday, September 03, 2019

Hong Kong Chief Executive Can't Choose To Quit

Hong Kong leader says she would 'quit' if she could, fears her ability to resolve crisis now 'very limited' Protesters have expanded their demands to include complete withdrawal of the proposal, a concession her administration has so far refused. ....... Lam suggested that Beijing had not yet reached a turning point. She said Beijing had not imposed any deadline for ending the crisis ahead of National Day celebrations scheduled for October 1. And she said China had “absolutely no plan” to deploy People’s Liberation Army troops on Hong Kong streets....... Lam noted, however, that she had few options once an issue had been elevated “to a national level,” a reference to the leadership in Beijing, “to a sort of sovereignty and security level, let alone in the midst of this sort of unprecedented tension between the two big economies in the world.” ...... In such a situation, she added, “the room, the political room for the chief executive who, unfortunately, has to serve two masters by constitution, that is the central people’s government and the people of Hong Kong, that political room for maneuvering is very, very, very limited.” .....

The Chinese government rejected a recent proposal by Lam to defuse the conflict that included withdrawing the extradition bill altogether

...... But she said China was “willing to play long” to ride out the unrest, even if it meant economic pain for the city, including a drop in tourism and losing out on capital inflows such as initial public offerings. ....... “Nowadays it is extremely difficult for me to go out,” she said. “I have not been on the streets, not in shopping malls, can’t go to a hair salon. I can’t do anything because my whereabouts will be spread around social media.” ...... Lam, a devout Catholic, attended St Francis’ Canossian College ..... After studying sociology at the University of Hong Kong, she went on to a distinguished career as a civil servant in Hong Kong. She was elected city leader in March 2017 by a 1,200-member election committee stacked with Beijing loyalists....... On July 1, 2017, the day she was sworn in, Lam donned a white hard hat as she walked with Xi to inspect the new Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge, which physically links Hong Kong to mainland China. ....... Lam and her government later came under fire for banning the party and the disqualification of pro-democracy lawmakers. ...... Pollster Robert Chung said Lam’s success in pushing through many controversial proposals bolstered her belief she would be able to ram through the extradition bill....... At the meeting last week, Lam said the extradition bill was her doing and was meant to “plug legal loopholes in Hong Kong’s system.” ....... “This is not something instructed, coerced by the central government,” she said........ “And this huge degree of fear and anxiety amongst people of Hong Kong vis-à-vis the mainland of China, which we were not sensitive enough to feel and grasp.”




Let that sink in a little. Carrie Lam, the Hong Kong Chief Executive appointed by Beijing, is saying she does not have the option to quit. Everyone has the option to quit. But no, not Carrie Lam.

She just made a strong case for why the Chief Executive for Hong Kong needs to be someone directly elected by the people.

Not only can she not quit, obviously she thinks she does not have the option to privately tell people in Beijing that, hey, maybe you should get someone else. They are not listening. Going public with the opinion, she calculated, was her best chance to be heard in Beijing. That is dysfunction.

Meeting the five demands of the Hong Kong protesters keeps intact one country, two systems. There is no loss of face for Beijing in accepting the five demands. But not even the top demand has been met after all these months. Beijing is so divorced from Hong Kong realities. It is as if Beijing were London, and Hong Kong was Delhi.

Maybe the shelf life for communism is 70 years. That is how long it lasted in Russia. It has been 70 years in China. All the Hong Kong protesters have to do is stay put.

I don't blame Carrie Lam. She does not have the power to accept or reject the demands. The whole thing is above her pay grade. Whereas the committees in Beijing act like deer in the headlights. They know they are powerless in the face of the protests. They think if they wait long enough, the whole thing will go away. Wishful thinking.