Showing posts with label jaishankar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jaishankar. Show all posts

Thursday, October 20, 2022

Contours Of A Possible Peace In Ukraine: India Has A Role To Play

Contours Of A Possible Peace In Ukraine: India Has A Role To Play

The choice is not between the military option and the political option. The only choice is the political option. Every war concludes with peace negotations. You can take that option early, or you can take that option late. You can negotiate peace when there has been little damage, a lot of damage, or total damage. It is smart to move early.

Russia has had grievances. It fancies itself the only country being able to stand up to the United States, the supposed sole superpower.

This is a multi-polar world. The US ceased being the sole superpower a long time ago.

Putin fishes in conspiracy theories. You read zany brainy ideas on the internet and think it is not possible anybody believes these. But Putin has been waging an entire war with QAnon type material. You don’t wage war because some people seem to be working for transgender rights in the United States! Are you not secure in your masculinity, Mr. Putin?

Russia is a smaller economy than Italy. Italy is no challenge to the United States. The nuclear weapons Russia and the US have are only good for mutually assured destruction. That is not challenge. That is suicide.

The US is a challenge to itself. When a large power starts printing money recklessly, it is on its way out. World history attests to that trend.

I think standing up to the US is important. That is why India has kept buying Russian oil. The Indian government answers to the Indian voters. Those Indian voters can not survive substantially higher oil prices.

Ethnic Russian minorities in countries like Ukraine must have their grievances. But they must also pale in comparison to the grievances of the ethnic minorities inside the Russian Federation. Putin’s so-called mobilization has been calls for genocide on several ethnic groups inside Russia. Dress up, pick up that rifle and go die, all of you.

If Putin is allowed to change borders at will, half the borders in Africa might come into question. Political forest fires might crop up in many parts of the globe. The US-Canada border might be the only settled border on the planet. There is no arguing a line of latitude.

Putin is a dictator. If you can not speak freely, if you can not peacefully assemble and protest, you live in a dictatorship. Russians live in a dictatorship. And they know it.

Putin’s military misadventure in Ukraine is how dictatorships work. The supposed strongman has to keep making the moves of strength or his regime will collapse. Putin going into Ukraine is Putin wanting 20 more years of power inside Russia.

Threatening nuclear strikes is enough offense. Putin does not need to drop a nuclear bomb somewhere for the world to impose much tougher sanctions on the regime. Putin should not be allowed to issue threats.

The moment that threat might become credible, Putin will put himself under tremendous pressure. Somebody in his inner circles might come to conclude getting rid of Putin is the only way to survive. Why die with the madman? But that can not be the world’s plan. The world needs to intervene and make peace.

You don’t make peace with friends. By definition you make peace with enemies.

Putin might prefer China, because China is not neutral. China is a Russia waiting to happen. Look at what just happened in Taiwan. Putin might prefer Turkey, because Turkey is a small power.

But the best candidate to make peace is India, and more specifically the Indian trio Modi, Jaishankar, and Doval. You don’t make peace by asking for permission from the US, or Russia, or Ukraine. You proactively make peace. You go in because you don’t want your people to pay more for oil, because you don’t want Africa to pay more for wheat, because you want to take the atom bomb out of the equation for the world. A country that aspires for a veto power in the UN Security Council should actively engage with all parties and force peace upon them, against their will if necessary. You can always name and shame. Heck, you could shame the military-industrial complex in the United States. To a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Defense contractors get to make money, but not by taking the world to the brink of nuclear catastrophe.

Peace means to demilitarize all contested areas. Russia needs to agree to get its troops out of all areas that it did not have in 2013. Ukraine also has to agree to do the same. UN peacekeeping troops will have to step in to maintain law and order in the said regions.

If Russia does not agree to this withdrawal, then there will be no peace. The Ukrainian army is on schedule to hand over an Afghanistan to Putin possibly by winter, or perhaps Spring. That could lead to a collapse of the Russian Federation. Russia could become the size of Ukraine.

Then the contested areas have to be demarcated. The contested areas are not Crimea plus the four regions. The contested areas are only Crimea and the original two contested regions. Ukraine has to be willing to hold Scotland style referendums. I think Ukraine stands to win them. It can rejig its constitution to institute full-fledged federalism and great autonomy to those regions.

Of course there will be campaigning. And Ukraine gets to convince people that they will be better off as part of the European Union.

Ukraine could agree to not join NATO for a 10-year period with guarantees from the major powers that its borders after the referendums will not be violated. In 10 years NATO will likely have become irrelevant with no help from Putin.

There will be no peace unless war crimes are investigated. A neutral committee could look into that. There will be no peace unless Russia pays for the rebuilding of the damage it has done. Putin has plenty of money in the western banks.

There are those who want Putin to go. Russian troops moving back to Russia brings back all those Russian men who have fled the motherland to avoid getting drafted. I think they will take to the streets when they are back. But that is not the business of the peace process. That is a separate topic. Whether Putin goes or stays is for the global Russian population to decide.



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Thursday, October 06, 2022

American Racism And Visas For Indians

Just from anecdotal evidence I get the impression the United States has been "punishing" India for "siding" with Russia. India is not. A lot of people I know are having visa issues. Visas that used to get issued within a week or two now have yearlong waiting periods. This is asinine. This is racism. Racism is a variant of the fascism virus. Liberty is the opposite of fascism. Donald Trump is a fascist. His last antic has been to threaten violence upon the Republican Senate Leader. Republican! 

You can not house liberty and racism in the same framework. 

Did you ask? Before you threatened Russia, did you ask India? Did you consult? Before you sent in weapons, did you ask? Did you consult? Was it a mutual decision that you should expect blind support? 

The Russian attack on Ukraine was a surprise to India. India did not have any say in it. India has disapproved of it. India has sent a lot of humanitarian aid to Ukraine. 

India was buying oil in the world markets. India continues to buy oil in the world markets. If high oil prices are not a problem, why is California sending oil rebates to all its people? The Indian foreign minister has made the point that what India buys in a month Europe buys in one afternoon. China buys from Russia and sells to Europe. 

India is not a party to the war. India disapproves of the war. But it is also being realistic that it is not in a position to end the war. Russia is. Ukraine is. The US is. But India is not. 

Tiny bureaucrats who used to topple elected leaders in Latin America make these decisions. They be like, India! 

India is the CEO of Google! India is the CEO of Microsoft! India is the CEO of Twitter! India is Vice President of the United States. 

India is best positioned to engineer peace if peace is possible. So far it does not look possible. 

A peacemaker is not a yes man. A peacemaker without integrity will not succeed. 

Putin is not the only one who does not want peace. The military-industrial complex in America does not want peace. It is making big money right now. Don't turn off that tap. 








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Monday, July 11, 2022

Modi And Jaishankar Must Proactively Step In To Make Peace In Ukraine

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Tuesday, June 07, 2022

Jaishankar: The Indian Zelensky

हम युक्रेन को पुर्ण समर्थन कर रहे हैं और हम विदेश मंत्री जयशंकर के बात से पुर्ण सहमत हैं। ये कोइ विरोधाभाष नहीं है। ज़ेलेन्स्की जिस चीज के लिए युक्रेन के भितर लड़ रहे हैं जयशंकर उसी चीज के लिए बिश्व मंच पर लड़ रहे दिखाइ देते हैं। 

रेसिस्म (Racism) हुवा फासिज्म (Fascism) ----- विश्व राजनीति में रेसिस्म हावी है। जयशंकर उसका विरोध कर रहे हैं। जयशंकर विश्व मंच पर लोकतंत्र के लिए लड़ रहे हैं। 

इस युद्ध के दो हीरो, ज़ेलेन्स्की और जयशंकर। फासिज्म (Fascism) वायरस का ही एक वैरिएंट है रेसिस्म (Racism) । 

































Jaishankar does it again: EAM’s masterclass exposing Western misperceptions on Indian diplomacy External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s language and logic during a talk at Globesec 2022 were polite yet assertive, simple but effective, and at the same time politically correct and intellectually sound ........ India’s mainstream media and social media are full of reports, commentaries and articles in praise of External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar’s replies to critical questions on the country’s positions on the war in Ukraine and several other foreign policy issues during his participation at Globsec 2022 Bratislava Forum, Slovakia. ........ There is no dispute that Jaishankar’s responses to questions were masterly. Any Indian listener would feel proud about what he said and the manner in which he said it. His replies and retorts reflected India’s current position in the world as an influential actor, constructive leader of the Global South and an independent major power. .......... It is quite understandable that the United States and its European allies have been lobbying hard through bilateral dialogues and even in international forums to make Indian policies aligned with the Western approaches to the Russia-Ukraine war. India is a strategic partner of the United States and a trade and investment partner of the European Union and is also a democratic polity, plural society and a market economy. ........... the popular perceptions among certain sections of the attentive public in the United States and Europe appeared as if India is a country that is siding with Russia, ignoring the deaths and destruction in Ukraine, bypassing the Western sanctions and funding Russia’s war in Ukraine by buying oil and indirectly helping Russian war efforts by refusing export of wheat despite the food crisis generated by the war-making it difficult for Ukrainian wheat to be put in the international market. ............

His language and logic were polite yet assertive, simple but effective and at the same time politically correct and intellectually sound.

....... India has made efforts to convince Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian president Vladimir Putin to resolve differences through dialogue. ......... He also said that India, like the European countries, has bought Russian oil to address its energy requirements amidst shortages in the market, India has restricted wheat exports to keep the speculators at bay and that like the American and European people, common people in India have also been suffering because of the war in Europe. .......... While the focus of the interview was on the Russia-Ukraine war, there was an attempt to corner him to take a definite stand in a scenario where a bipolar global power structure would emerge and whether India would be in the camp led by the US and Europe or in a bloc led by China and Russia. Jaishankar refused to view the world power structure in that mode and asserted that India would have its own way. A country where one-fifth of mankind lives and a country that ranks fifth or sixth among the economies in the world will have its own options and stay away from a fixed bloc. ............ not many countries are in a position to take sides! A large number of American allies, including in Europe, look up to China for economic collaborations and up to the United States for security partnership! The world now and even in the future will be more complex and cannot be viewed in binary terms.

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