Indian Surveys

Flag of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a national political party in India. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I have not known for sure what to make sure of the polls and surveys. Of course there is the classic example of the surveys showing the BJP coming back to power in 2004 but getting routed in reality. On the other hand there is a part of you that wants to believe maybe there is something to the surveys. Also it has to be noted there was a recent sting operation that showed some of the polling agencies were taking money from the BJP to show it was doing well with the people. There is also the allegation that the BJP spends as much as Rs. 50 crore on one Modi rally. If you are going to provide free transportation I guess a lot of people will go to Patna and Lucknow for the sightseeing.

But then I came across a survey a few days back that showed the BJP was going to bag half the seats in the South, and I am like, this can not possibly be true. The BJP has no presence in the South, never has. That is too dramatic.

I do think there is a Modi wave. Taking the party from 100 MPs to 200 MPs is quite a wave. But 200 is a long way from 272. And even those same surveys show the non Congres, non BJP parties getting more seats than either of the two biggies.

It can be safely assumed the largest democracy is too large for the polls and surveys to have figured it out yet.

There is also the corporate bias. The big media houses are owned by the major corporate interests that stand solidly behind the right of center Modi.

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Rooting For Nitish

In less than a month India will start voting. I have a horse in the race. The name is Nitish.

There are those who say if democracy is the superior form of government, how come China is the one doing better? To them I say, look at Nitish. For a landlocked, agricultural, flood prone, poorest Indian state to achieve a growth rate of 15% is nothing less than magical. And this has been growth that has touched Biharis in all income brackets, it has touched the Mahadalits, a term I believe coined by Nitish.

There are Biharis who don't even know Nitish is running for Prime Minister. And I don't blame them, because for the longest time Nitish kept saying he actually is not running for Prime Minister.

And then there are Biharis who like Nitish so much and are so excited about all that work he has done, all the roads and bridges he has built, all the law and order situation improvements he has brought about, all he has done in education and health, they like him and his work so much, they feel should Nitish become Prime Minister of the country then Bihar will go back to its pre-Nitish days.

That is misplaced, erroneous thinking. Think this way. Whatever Nitish has done for Bihar so far he has done by riding around on a bicycle. How much more could he do for Bihar if he could ride around on a motorbike? That is what Nitish becoming Prime Minister would be like for Bihar. It would be a good thing.

If you are happy with what Nitish has done for Bihar, but you are dissatisfied, and you want much more than what you have then the only option is to make him Prime Minister, and you do that by giving all of Bihar's 40 seats to Nitish. That is the best way to make him Prime Minister of the country.

As Prime Minister of India he can do at least five times more for Bihar than what he has been able to do so far. He might even be able to take Bihar's growth rate to 20%. This Bihari Babu will not forget Bihar in Delhi. Quite the opposite. As Prime Minister he will make Bihar the foundation for everything he does for the rest of India, and he will do much for India.

India needs Nitish if it wants to go past China.

I see layers of support for Nitish. First of all, he will go past 25 seats in Bihar, he might even go past 30. That will form his nucleus. His first layer of support will come from the Janata Parivar. These would be people like Mulayam, Deve Gowda and Patnaik. The next layer will be the Third Front leaders like Jayalalita and the Left parties. The next layer will be leaders like Mamata and Mayawati. At this point he should have hit 180 seats. I see Congress and its allies getting about 100 seats. Don’t for a moment think they are even considering supporting Modi. That is out of question. The anathema is total. I see Rahul as Deputy Prime Minister. Laloo might even get Railways all over again. That is 280 seats. The Aam Aadmi Party might get 20 seats. That will go Nitish’ way. I have never heard Kejriwal speak one bad word about Nitish. Others might number around 25. So you are looking at a tally of 325 for Nitish. For the first time a non-Congress, non-BJP government will last five years. Nitish will put India on a path to 30 years of double digit growth rates. A two trillion economy growing at 10% every year will double every seven years, and will have become a 60 trillion economy by 2050. Nitish could be Prime Minister for 10 years.

I see the BJP and its allies clocking 200 seats. Others might get a further 20 and choose to stay in the Opposition. So 325 for Nitish and 220 against. I see Sushma as Opposition Leader. Modi will go back to Gujrat.

Deng Xiaoping put China on a path for impressive growth rates around 1980. That push lasted 30 years and is still going strong. 2014 is India’s 1980.

I have a feeling Nitish will also bring about dramatic breakthroughs like a normalization of relations with Pakistan. India and Pakistan should be what Nepal and India are. That is what is best for both the peoples.

It would make sense for all parties supporting Nitish to form some sort of a federation in Delhi. They would continue to be independent parties, sometimes competing with each other at the state level. But in Delhi each party would send one representative to sit on something like a Coordination Committee that would meet monthly to make sure the coalition stays strong and vibrant. It be noted that World War I started for some pretty stupid reasons. You can’t let misunderstandings to go out of hand. Communication helps.

Bihar is hungry for energy. Uttar Pradesh is hungry for energy. All of India is hungry for energy. Nepal is hungry for energy. The Yellow River used to be known as the sorrow of China. It has been turned into a boon. Kosi is the sorrow of Bihar. India and Nepal should cooperate in ways that Nepal’s full hydro potential can be harnessed. An India growing at double digit rates is an India whose energy needs are met, an India where there is 24/7 electricity in every town, every village, every city.

Gandhi inspired generations of politicians in Nepal. Now the inspiration has to be Nitish. Development is the sole agenda of politicians in all political parties in Nepal. That message has to go across. Nitishism is the new in thing. It is the answer to South Asia’s challenges.

I am confident Nitish will ascend to the helm. He is the most deserving. The numbers look to be in his favor.

Nitish In Delhi: Best Possible Outcome For Bihar
Bihar: Beyond Agriculture
BJP 217, Congress 73, Others 253: Bloomberg News
Layers Of Support For Nitish
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Nitish In Delhi: Best Possible Outcome For Bihar

There are Biharis who don't even know Nitish is running for Prime Minister. And I don't blame them, because for the longest time Nitish kept saying he actually is not running for Prime Minister.

And then there are Biharis who like Nitish so much and are so excited about all that work he has done, all the roads and bridges he has built, all the law and order situation improvements he has brought about, all he has done in education and health, they like him and his work so much, they feel should Nitish become Prime Minister of the country then Bihar will go back to its pre-Nitish days.

That is misplaced, erroneous thinking. Think this way. Whatever Nitish has done for Bihar so far he has done by riding around on a bicycle. How much more could he do for Bihar if he could ride around on a motorbike? That is what Nitish becoming Prime Minister would be like for Bihar. It would be a good thing.

If you are happy with what Nitish has done for Bihar, but you are dissatisfied, and you want much more than what you have then the only option is to make him Prime Minister, and you do that by giving all of Bihar's 40 seats to Nitish. That is the best way to make him Prime Minister of the country.

As Prime Minister of India he can do at least five times more for Bihar than what he has been able to do so far. He might even be able to take Bihar's growth rate to 20%. This Bihari Babu will not forget Bihar in Delhi. Quite the opposite. As Prime Minister he will make Bihar the foundation for everything he does for the rest of India, and he will do much for India.

India needs Nitish if it wants to go past China.

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Bihar: Beyond Agriculture

Nitish has been magic. He has done the unthinkable. He has proven democracy is a superior form of government to whatever they have out there in China. For a landlocked, poor, agricultural, flood-prone state like Bihar to achieve a 15% growth rate is remarkable. But there is always the question of what next.

Bihar has been the poorest state of India this entire time. It might have achieved the fastest growth rate in India. But it still is the poorest state in India and the gulf with the second poorest state is still wide.

How do you catch up? More important, how do you go past them? Can you hope to become number one?

I think the answer lies in thinking the next big thing after agriculture is not industrialization. Bihar should keep focused on agriculture, now and later, but it should also think the focus has to be also put on what is considered the next big thing after industrialization. And that is the service sector. And the next big thing after that, and that is the knowledge economy. And one of the next big things: clean energy.

If you can get to Patna from any part of Bihar within six hours, and if Patna has been made a crime-free city through use of Big Data, and if Patna now has the longest stretch of free WiFi anywhere in the world at 20 kilometers, then I feel Nitish is already doing it. He just has not articulated it yet.

Focusing on the knowledge sector is about education, health and fee WiFi. Nitish is already making major strides in education and health. The part that is missing is to think you take that effort to a whole new level once you realize that is also your next big thing after agriculture. It is not industry. Temporary teachers agitating across the state because they want to be made permanent is not mosquito noise but rather music to the ears.

All of Patna has to be turned into a free WiFi zone. And inside the city boundaries a top notch IT college has to be established. The concept can not be 12 years of education for all children, but rather lifelong education for all Biharis.

Nitish claims food from Bihar goes to the kitchen tables across India. The next goal should be that teachers and doctors and nurses from Bihar go to all continents of the world, to all countries. The human brain is where the future resides.

WiFi is the next road, it is the next bridge. It is not enough for Bihar to try to catch up with the rest of India. This is a global era, and Bihar has to attempt to catch up with the rest of the world. In a knowledge economy being landlocked is no big deal and having a dense population like Bihar is a major boon. The mines with minerals have not ended up in Jharkhand, rather the mines reside in the brains of Biharis.

Rigorous lifelong education, easy access to health care - and there Bihar's local food would play a key role because if you get the nutrition part right, the rest of health care is easy - free WiFi across Patna, launch of IT colleges - although the best programmers are self taught, and as long as you can come online, you can teach yourself programming - and a major push for service sector jobs and knowledge economy jobs and a major emphasis on producing workers for the education and health sectors for the global market would go a long way to turning Bihar into the top economy in India.

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BJP 217, Congress 73, Others 253: Bloomberg News

हिन्दी: देश के उप राष्ट्रपति मोहम्मद हामिद अंसारी पटना में पूर्व मुख्यमंत्री सत्येन्द्र नारायण सिन्हा(छोटे साहब) की 94वीं जयंती पर आयोजित व्याख्यानमाला श्रंखला पर पूर्व सांसद किशोरी सिन्हा और मुख्यमंत्री नीतीश कुमार के साथ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Bloomberg: India Calls Election as Modi Rise Threatens Congress Rule

The BJP is forecast to win 217 seats in the lower house of parliament, short of the 272 needed for a majority, according to an opinion poll released on Feb. 22 by ABP News television channel and Nielsen. Congress would get 73 seats, its worst ever performance, the poll showed. Regional parties would split the remaining 253 seats, up from the 216 they currently control....... the $1.8 trillion economy will grow 4.9 percent in the year through March 31, less than the past decade’s annual average of about 8 percent...... Congress leaders have sought to discredit Modi over the riots as they fight off allegations of corruption, with Singh saying in January that Modi presided over a “mass massacre.” The national auditor has accused Singh’s administration of costing India as much as $53 billion through favoring certain companies in awarding mobile-phone licenses and handing out no-bid coal-mining permits.

Congress faces 'record low' in India election

there was a feeling within Congress that its election frontman Rahul Gandhi already knew the game was up and instead "has his sights set on 2019" when the next elections are due .... the legacy of the 2002 communal riots in Gujarat, when more than 1,000 mainly Muslim residents were killed, as his main "weak spot" that could not only alienate voters but also make it harder to forge an alliance with minority parties after May 16.

Old Fantasies Are Distorted in Indian Elections

For decades, India’s business elite dreamed of an alpha-male dictator who would also be a university graduate and generally a wonderful person, while the intellectual elite waited for the revolution that would set everything right. The poor ensured that India remained a democracy by turning out to vote every time they were asked to. In tribute, the politicians ensured that they remained poor. ..... At the heart of the festive campaigns is a man who admirers and foes alike assert is a mass leader with dictatorial qualities ...... the fierce Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi — whose charm in no small measure derives from the sense of danger he exudes from having been accused of complicity in the 2002 riots in Gujarat State that resulted in the deaths of more than a thousand people, mostly Muslims ...... the business community, which owns Indian journalism, and the urban middle class ....... The man who has done the greatest damage to Mr. Modi is Arvind Kejriwal, who was the core of a street movement against the corrupt political class before he converted his anarchic protests into an Occupy the Delhi Assembly movement and ran for office. He ended up as Delhi’s chief minister. Mr. Kejriwal has accused Mr. Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat in 2002 and still today, of being a danger to India’s Muslims and a vassal of India’s richest man, Mukesh Ambani. .... Mr. Modi, who wants to be India’s prime minister, is not a man who can survive a question session he cannot control. ...... what they call “secularism,” which in theory is about the co-existence of various faiths but in practice is short-term pandering to India’s nearly 180 million Muslims. ...... It was in response to the perceived rise of Mr. Modi that an unusual meeting was organized by the Communist Party of India (Marxist). Two men many Indians would never believe could share a stage did exactly that, at a public seminar on Monday. These were ordinary men, but they were the subjects of two extraordinary photographs that became emblems of the 2002 Gujarat riots. One was Qutubuddin Ansari, a Muslim tailor who was photographed during the riots begging security personnel to save him. The other was Ashok Mochi, one of the Hindu rioters, who was photographed brandishing an iron rod as he set homes on fire. Mr. Mochi, who was imprisoned for a few days on minor charges, asked Mr. Ansari to forgive him and said Mr. Modi’s claims of economic progress in Gujarat under his administration were an exaggeration. “I still live on a footpath,” Mr. Mochi said.

Don't fall into BJP's trap, Nitish Kumar tells voters in Bihar

Nitish Kumar on Thursday said that the BJP has no development model for Bihar ...... Taking a dig at BJP's growing closeness to Raj Thackrey's MNS, Kumar said nowadays they were busy "shaking hands with people who have been targeting people from Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh in Maharashtra." He also questioned BJP's motif in the state's demand for a special category status saying that the party had actually joined hands with the Congress to facilitate the same to Seemandhra "within 24 hours" of Sonia Gandhi's instruction. "Why did not they made a similar demand for Bihar before supporting Congress in the passage of Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Bill?" he said. Meanwhile, Kumar declared former BJP MLA Awnish Kumar Singh, who recently joined JD(U), as the party's Lok Sabha candidate from Motihari seat.

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No hesitation in becoming PM: Nitish Kumar

"The leaders who have been declared prime ministerial candidate by their parties would not become prime minister. I am certain of it," Nitish Kumar said. The chief minister said opinion polls and surveys will be proved wrong after the elections. "There will be a hung parliament and the non-Congress and non-BJP Third Front will form the next government at the centre," he said. Nitish Kumar said he was hopeful that people of Bihar will vote for his party and will elect a majority in the 40 Lok Sabha seats from the state.

BJP Trying To Intimidate Us, Aam Aadmi Party Tells Election Commission

Starting Point = $2 trillion
Projected Growth Rate = 10%
Duration = 30 Years
Years It Takes To Double at 10% = 7
Size Of Economy In 35 Years = 2 --> 4 --> 8 --> 16 --> 32 --> 64

End Result = $64 Trillion by 2050

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